Daggerheart will both SUCCEED AND FAIL! 

RIP Baron’s brake lines

As someone who is a fan of Critical Role (though oddly the one member of my gaming group who is over 40), I think you're right about the prospects of Daggerheart overtaking D&D. Pathfinder is the only D&D-like of any major size, and Paizo works very hard to make it so, constantly releasing new rulebooks, setting material and Adventure Paths (that last one being important because it makes it easy to run Pathfinder, not just play it). That said, I suspect Critical Role's real goal with Daggerheart is to have a game for their main campaigns whose brand is entirely under their control, ensuring their show isn't vulnerable to 3rd-party scandals, which is a goal that is well within their grasp.

Death threats over DnD opinion... what a very normal reaction. Sorry you had to go through that shit.

My disagreement is in your definition of success. I would be more than surprised if Darrington Press is setting “replace D&D as the top TTRPG” as their measure of success. They’ll only fail to reach unrealistic goals.

Hot Take: Critical Rol toxic fanbase is ALSO part of D&D toxic fanbase... I agree that logistically speaking, it would be hard to go against HASBRO. But I wouldn't be surprised if this allowed them to expand their videos/series/comics, etc...

I think Critical Role could really help their DM/Player imbalance problem if Mercer worked to demystify what it is he's doing to DM. I've personally hoped for a while now that he would do a commentary piece on clips of older episodes to explain what's going on behind the screen; how much of this is improv-ed and how much was planned for a while and general discussion on how he makes the sausage, if you will. I know he's done some general game-mastery videos before through G&S, but I think it would go a lot further in deprogramming some of the Mercer effect mentality if he held the audience's hand through dissecting the magic trick.

From what I understand of them, I don't believe the creators of Daggerheart or the Critical Role team view this as an attempt to compete with or dethrone WotC. Rather it feels like this is more about the CR team feeling like they can tell the types of stories they want to tell, without being partnered with and under the thumb of WotC and Hasbro. They know that they can show up on thursday night and play most any game/rpg, and their twitch subscribers will still be there because they like the people and their talent more than the specific game they're playing (at this stage - this wasn't the case when CR started, almost certainly). I don't think any of these new offshoot RPGs are intended to be the new top dog in the market by their creators (Daggerheart, the MCDM rpg, Kobold Press's rpg, etc), rather I think this is simply the perfect time for those groups of creators to make the game they want to play and tell stories with, rather than feeling like they have to play the market leading game to stay relevant. Overall I think this is going to be good for the community of rpg enjoyers as a whole, as it will show many (myself included) who have only ever played 5e, that there is a lot more out there.

I think everyone knows DND isnt going anywhere, if theyre honest. What they will do is make more space for competition with their missteps. I doubt critical role thinks they can be giant killers. Hell theyre gamers and probably just want to go over to something else, maybe a little more rules light and more suited to their style of play. Its going to be interesting to see what happens. Im kinda rooting for anyone who wants to put a new game on the market right now. Its a great time to add something to the conversation that is the ttrpg community.

What if daggerheart is not meant to be a 5e killer but to deliver on what 5e lacks: tips and tools for new GMs and their campaign story telling in combination with simpler mire wellcoming rules for newbies?

There is a segment of people who aren’t Critical Role fans (me) who are also interested in seeing what Darrington Press has to offer (also me). If early impressions of Candela Obscura are any indication I see a fair market of non-CR fans buying their books.

Honestly, there's a lot of projection coming from theories like in this video. We're all assuming [wrongfully imo] that CR is doing this to conquer the TTRPG world, when there's been zero indication for that assumption. CR is probably creating a new system so they no longer have to worry about WoTC watching over their shoulders. They, just like many other indipendent creators, just want to try out a new system after the OGL debacle.

I do agree that they will be unable to overtake DnD, but is it still a failure if that's not their goal in the first place? I ask because so far it doesn't seem like that's their objective.

There's probably no other fanbase less likely to accept that "you're in front of the dungeon, go plumb it and get loot" is a good enough campaign for a new DM and in fact very fun for players

Counterpoint: it's not super hard to make a game that's easier to run than 5E, and just getting such a game in the hands of a bunch of players might just accidentally make a bunch of new GMs

Those who buy core D&D books are more likely to buy supplementary materials, because they're more likely to play it than to own it as a novelty. Daggerheart's kickstarter will first and foremost sell the game system to fans who likely won't play it, and thus the amount of carry-over fans who also purchase the supplementary materials will be considerably smaller. Thus, it will lack staying power precisely due to the Critical Role affiliation. However, it will convey the idea that tabletop roleplaying is more than just D&D and hopefully further pave the path towards other systems. There is a lot of high quality content out there, but only the most involved fans will ever know about it.

I think Daggerheart knows its going to be a niche thing for the foreseeable future and will make financial decisions with that in mind.

Agree or disagree, can't argue that you have interesting and thoughtful opinions. I enjoy listening to you even if you end up being wrong. Thanks for being here, sir

I hardly think a lot of people give a flying fart about the toxic critters. We all recognize a toxic fan when we see it, ignore it and carry on with what we were doing. That said, I think you're generally right that no other game is ever going to be a D&D killer simply because of the scale - WotC claim to have an installed player base of 13 million, after all. Also, good point about the possibility of support. The smaller game companies that thrive, do so by continual production of new material for their game lines. Darrington Pres has so far not been that sort of company. It remains to be seen whether they can transition into being one.

Does it have to supplant D&D in order to be considered a success? According to what made up standard? Role playing isn’t just D&D.

While your video does present an excellent business analysis why CR's games have an extremely low probability of outselling or even competing at the WotC corporate level, I am of the opinion that Merer and crew never had any expectations to compete with WotC. I think they just wanted to play their own game, they played PF and then moved to 5e, and have played other TTRPGs. So creating their own game, is not surprising and if it becomes a nice business for them great - but I think only fools believe it will be a WotC killer. Of course, while it may be improbable, it is certainly not impossible. Thank you.

I didn't know about Mark Koro, let alone his being an arms dealer. Trying to do some research on it, but coming up short. Got a source we can check out? (For clarity, it's obvious that he is involved with CR as he's listed as a board member for the Critical Role Foundation on the website. I'm wondering how you know he's apparently an active arms dealer.) Not sure if what you said at the 5:00 timestamp can be verified. It sounds like you're saying TLoVM is only as successful as it is due to nostalgia for other animated series that the CR cast was part of. Are you sure it's not just that CR's fanbase is really into the idea of a TV show based on the campaign(s)?

I highly doubt that critical role has the goal to go toe to toe with Wizard of the Coast. But I agree with you that just selling a lot of rule books in itself will not be a sucess. The first test for Daggerheart will be if it actually presents something new that makes for better (or at least a new flavour of) roleplaying. But maybe the even bigger challenge could be if Darrington press can deliver enough adventures with the rules system so that the fans actually have something to actually use the Daggerheart system.

You raise a lot of good points. I think you missed one though. It is my belief that MOST Critical Role fans are into Critical Role for the characters and story. They don't actually care about the game at hand. They are fans of Critical Role first, and D&D second. Legend of Vox Machina succeeded because it was more Critical Role. Daggerheart does not have that luxury. Most fans of CR who got into D&D are casual TTRPG fans: they play 5e and 5e alone and have basically no interest in the wider culture of TTRPGs. Most of them probably don't even know about the Pinkerton incident. There is a very small subset of CR fans who are both interested in new TTRPGS and I think that subset is smaller than in most other TTRPG subcultures. Basically: Daggerheart has to succeed outside of the bounds of the Critical Role fandom to be successful. Sadly, I think it's going to end up being too close to 5e for most people, and so I honestly feel the game is going to fail to compete.

I don’t think any of the post-OGL heartbreakers (and Daggerheart is TELLING you it’s a heartbreaker) is meant to win in pure sales against WotC D&D. They are just trying to bring you into their ecosystems.

I agree it’s unlikely to unseat WotC, they are working at entirely different scales. However, in my experience, practically every fandom has a % of toxic fans, I don’t think CR is unique in this way at all. It’s just very visible because the size of the fandom is quite large and lies in place where it’s been disruptive in the industry. (It’s easy for long time RPG’ers to be upset at the changes CR’s impact has made.) I’ve seen similarly horrible behavior from WotC fans, and definitely OSR folks as well (honestly I was almost put off from OSR games altogether because of the horrible behavior of a part of the community.) This isn’t to justify it, bad behavior is bad behavior, it just doesn’t make it as exceptional. (Same idea goes for Star Wars, Nintendo, or basically any other fandom.) CR actually does a lot more than many do to (moderated chat for example).

Get what you're saying about the DM to player Ratio in the CR community but are we sure that's not just representative of the DM player ratio in the 5e community as a whole or is it especially bad in CR?

So I generally agree with a lot of your thoughts but think you also left out some things. For example, you cited the D&D movie as something WotC could cash burn to get brand name out there, but don't mention that the Amazon/CR deal is expanding for more shows which will do the same. And with that deal with Amazon, it is possible CR could get a big push on Daggerheart through Amazon which is also a pretty good place to get your face out there. I am also not sure if the toxic part of the fanbase will be as big of a turnoff as you say. For one, that entire toxic part will probably buy the book just to tear it apart. But more importantly, *every* major geek franchise has that toxic community from Star Wars to Firefly to Trek to individual games. Inside the RPG market anyone open to multiple games knows there are system elitists for those games. So while it may be a turn off, I don't know if it will be as big a one as you think. Ultimately the biggest problem any non-D&D game will have is the fact it is not D&D. It is hard to compete with 50 years of being synonymous with the hobby. Even Pathfinder, who took a chunk out of the market, didn't really replace D&D and it was market share D&D quickly took back with 5e, with some help from CR. The real question will be: just how different from D&D is Daggerheart going to be? If it is just a better 5e it will never take over the market. If it it too far from D&D it'll also have points against.

I have doubts whether daggerheart will be it, but I do think critical role stands the best chance of opposing wotc given time. They have a significant budget and lots of people who'll listen to what they say. Definitely not a guarantee of success but it's a good doorway. Even pathfinder doesn't really have a lot of marketing and sure they aren't disrupting wotc but I think even the attempt by cr is good

I know 2 Crit-ers and both are newer to gaming because of Critical Role. Great players, passionate about it, but both TERRIFIED of running a game.

CR has enough cachet to get a lot a gamers to take a look. After that it will come down to the fundamental question: is it a better system? If the answer is yes, and the can support and expand then they can supplant D&D. If not, the it will fall to the wayside. I am personally more excited to see the MCDM system, but that will have a similar uphill battle. The timing has not been this favorable MtG disrupted the gaming landscape to aid the ascension of White Wolf’s Story Teller system.

People also need to realize that fans expect publishers to crank out a LOT of additional content after the core rules are released. They expect core rules, monsters, a couple standalone adventures, a full campaign, and at least one expansion of sorts at launch. Then they want to see more books drop every quarter. Many of them don’t buy this material, but judge the publisher harshly if it isn’t produced on a rapid schedule. If Daggerheart can’t drop at least 2 additional books per year plus adventures, fans will ignore it in favor of systems that have more content. I hope they can do it, but I’m not sure they can. Fans are fickle beasts.

In abstract, I'd be willing to give DMing it a go at least once, especially if it helps a few players who find the idea of playing something that isn't 5e scary. You are right about the broader economics. But I would very much like the game to be successful enough that they can transition off of 5e for their main campaigns. They transitioned to 5e when the show launched because they thought they needed the D&D brand to get credibility. It'd be a powerful statement of how far the hobby has come if they could move to their own system and not lose anything in the process.

I think you misunderstood why tLoVM was succesfull. There was a lot of promotion made by amazon, CR and by the community, and it is a good show. The huge promotion brought a lot of people beyond the CR fandom, and the quality of the show kept them interested. The promotion was so big I even saw billboards for it even though I'm in France, so not really were they're best known

Is Daggerheart going to be any good though? Forgive my ignorance if they released any specifics of it yet. What's it play like? Would love for you to dive into the ruleset and see if it's actually worth running as a DM

I know this video has been out for a while, but I still wanted to say that I just subscribed because of how you were able to make a valid and level headed argument at the end of the video about CR's economic impact (or not) and the insight you've shared about their audience and/or the people leading these online discussions. You make a ton of valid points in regards to the people involved and what kind of impact Daggerheart might have.

"Highly esteemed dust collectors." You're not wrong, but it hurts!

I think you're underestimating its chances here. Daggerheart will have reach. Many gamers, like me, who don't watch Critical Role will also pick it up from general interest if it looks interesting. What will determine its success is how well made a game it is. If it's an uninspired fantasy d20 system then it'll enjoy limited success among fans, but if it's a really good system then Critical Roles weight will give it the kickstart audience it needs to really take off. I don't see it taking down D&D, but I can see it pushing to being a comparatively widely known and played game - ahead of titles like PathFinder - if it's good enough.

Ouch, seeing that fate core book really hurt. I think D&Ds greatest strength is that role-players are people and have as much a preference for who they play with as they do for what they play. Most groups have mixed preferences, so if a new RPG comes out and it's better for one style of player (more crunchy, more narrative, more creative, simpler) there will be a group who will have their preferred game style not helped or actively hindered and a group who doesn't want to put the time in to learn a new system and this will usually outweigh the people who want something different. Having said that if a Critter in the groups I play in wants to suggest Daggerfall and Daggerfall fixes some of my many frustrations with 5E then I would be supportive of that change.

Love to see some actual numbers on how the Critters are viewed; I suspect you've been more exposed to the toxicity than most. (Or maybe I'm sheltered by not spending much time on Twitter?) I agree with your general analysis in the short term, but I don't see WotC effectively creating the sort of outreach that CR has; a single movie every three to five years can't touch the ongoing stream and two concurrently running cartoons (one of which is already a hit). On top of that, even talking about a spit-polish on 5e (or whatever they're calling it now) was a horrible decision. While past performance is no guarantee of future profits, according to Ryan Dancey, past new editions of D&D have only carried about half their audience with them into the new edition. I suspect a lot of folks will play 5e the way they always have, using no-long-One along with Tales of the Valiant and whatever C7d20 is called as additional options to add on top (very much how those of us who played B/X treated AD&D as additional spells and character options for B/X, rather than as a new game in and of itself). All of which leads me to believe that WotC is vulnerable, still doesn't have a clear plan for monetizing the game, and will need to gamble on an upcoming streaming show to compete with CR's already established full-court press of outreach to not-yet-gamers. In five years, WotC will be still running strong, but if CR is still around by 2033, they may be eating D&D's lunch simply in terms of being the new gateway game.

A lot of Daggerheart's long term success will depend on how much supplementary material Darrington Press produces for their new system. One of the big factors that helps D&D stay on top is the reams of lore available along with the adventures. This is less true for 5e, but previous editions could generally draw on older edition adventures and things like Dragon and Dungeon magazines to help DMs, new and old, with adventures, starting points, and whole campaigns. One of the issues I always faced when starting a new game system was where to start a campaign. World of Darkness Mage the Ascension springs to mind. At the time I tried to GM that, I was left at a loss of just what the point of the game was. Plenty of rules but precious little background was available at the time, especially compared to other games I had run like D&D, Shadowrun, Star Frontiers or Robotech. So if Darrington Press wants to dethrone D&D, providing supplementary material is going to be key. A cool rule book with little to no examples of play or adventures and lore to go along with it will remain just a cool rule book that no one bothers to play.

Thanks for the content my Baron. I'm sorry to hear about the death threats. I liked your video especially when you talked about the fundraising and printing aspects. People rarely have a large scale view of things and I appreciate your perspective of the book's physical production on a global scale. Very interesting stuff.

This is super accurate. I have tried to get my players to try other systems to no avail outside of a single beginner box playthrough of Pathfinder 2E which ended due to life circumstances of a key player. I really want to try Daggerheart when it becomes available but doubt I will have luck. I keep backing things (Avatar Legends, Black Sword Hack, Shadowdark, etc) in hopes of playing different systems but can never find the players. What's interesting is that I keep having friends approach me to run D&D 5E campaigns for them but will not even consider a different system.

Baron F those guys talking smack about your brakes. (Not you Bob). I absolutely love your voice on ttrpgs. You bring something new to the conversation with your content. You don’t do lore, you don’t do much in the way of how-tos, you don’t do crafting or map making. You grab a wider net and report on the meta of the games. Be that the geopolitical motivations of kingdoms or the business side of the actual industry, it’s great stuff and you’ve carved your own niche. Please keep doing what you do the way you do it. It’s always a treat for me, thank you Baron

Ouch, the fate and burning wheel friendly fire was uncalled for lol.

Thinking about it. I don't think they should even really bother will big retailers. Aim smaller. Go after all the comic book / gaming stores that have been screwed over by Wizards. They don't need to spend millions on advertising or to raise brand awareness. Also I would push for the digital market, while having the physical market be on the back burner. I would also if I was them double down on 3rd party content creators to add to the game with a perfectly written legal document. I will gladly give it a shot and create content if it seems worth it. Until then I will stick with PF2e provided their remaster doesn't annoy me too much.

@2:32 I didn't know I was missing a piece to this puzzle but there it is... Everything CR makes perfect sense now

Not a Critter or a TTRPG player, but what most don't factor is that groups can play different games during different days/nights.

I wonder if the ratio of Critters who are DM's vs those who aren't would resemble the more generalized ratio of DM's to players?

Dear Baron, could you explain what you mean by calling Critical Role a toxic company? This is the first time I have heard them being called such a thing, and I would love to hear the reasoning behind it. A toxic minority among their fanbase does not make the whole company toxic, so it must be something else. They themselves excluded toxic players from their table in the past (e.g. Orion) and have had falling outs with toxic people among their circle of friends, going so far as to fire Brian W. Foster for having very toxic twitter fights with fans where he crossed multiple lines in how to publicly represent their common enterprise. Foster has now been exposed as a vile creature who even issued death threats against his former fiancee, Ashley Johnson. So, as far as I am currently educated in the matter, the group around Mercer has been met with a lot of toxicity in the past, even by people they implicitly trusted. But I have not yet heard any accounts of them acting toxic against anybody in any way. So I would like to be informed. And, if possible, would love to take a look at your sources, if you are able to share them.

Would it be possible for you to do a similar analysis of Kobold Press' "Black Flag"/"Tales of The Valiant"?

Interesting perspective, but as a non-critter I found some of your arguments uncharitable to CR. Your say that The Legend of Vox Machina unexpectedly succeeded due to nostalgia, but ignore the fact that it condensed CR in a way that made it approachable to audiences far broader than what the streams could reach. Likewise, it's not clear to me why the minority of toxic CR fans would dramatically impact Daggerheart, given that other CR-related publications appear to be doing very well. Is there any evidence Darrington Press' bottom line has been affected by toxic fans?

I think its true that it might become a novelty shelf book. But as a DM I know that reading other roleplaying games then the one you are currently playing still has the merit of giving insight and inspiration. Kind of like this channel.

Threats aside - 'I failed to take in account how nostalgic the animation would be'. That is not why I watched both season as a gen xer. I don't care about the 'animation' at all. Sure, art style is important if you're trying to carve out a niche in a sea of options (see also Dark Dungeons 2 game), but it was primarily the quality of voice acting and script. It took the boilerplate (must save the kingdom from calamity) fantasy stuff to a must watch level. Your take on the chance of Daggerheart might be true, but what Critical role has done to the paper and pen space of roll playing is quite the achievement. And they have been extremely successful because of the quality of work, players and presentation. D&D is fairly unknown as a platform outside the larger playerbase. People have heard of it, sure, but they're not drawn to Critical Role because it is D&D, they're drawn to Critical Role because of Critical Role. Matt Mercer and co isn't selling you on 'you see a displacer beast' (which would be what your average DM would tell you). You see a pantherlike creature with two tentacles...'. And for that you don't need a D&D Monster handbook. You need imagination. So the success of their various systems isn't a D&D killer tomorrow, but rather a start similar to how D&D became a household brand over a long period of time. And that is more of a question if Critical Role can sell themselves in the long run. Can they sell the world building. Because without the world, none of the systems really matter. Can they achieve 'market penetration'? It depends on what the metric here is and if Critical Role is doing it because they want to sell millions of copies of Daggerheart as the primary concern, or a platform outside D&Ds grasp to continue the story telling. I'd be interested to here what Matt and Cos longterm plan is. Are we looking to worldbuilding that can spill into all kind of Mediums, or are they simply trying to 'compete' to see hardcopies. Because knowing that would answer your question far more than say 'what will their market cap be'.

If Daggerheart is also another 5e clone then it will be fighting in a market that has been saturated by other 5e forks. Further diluting the general pool of games that one could realistically get to the table. A similar issue to DMsGuild and DrivethruRPG. As a publisher on these unless you cultivated a loyal fan base you almost have to have a spray and pray mindset. That you release so much content that something will stick and maybe the customer will buy one or two more products from you.

“Sit on the shelf collecting dust like Fate Core and Burning Wheel” I did not tune into this video to be personally attacked. WHERE ARE THE BREAK LINE CUTTERS?! 😂

Great analysis, especially the publishing limitations. Some Daggerheart going to succeed longer term needs to be simple to run and have great GM starter selection and grow its own game runner base. What Wotc should do if a US Corp was allowed to think more than 6 months ahead. Its possible but unlikely.

what a parting shot, I'm sharing the last 30 seconds with all my Fate Core and Burning Wheel fan friends, Baron :)

I think they could pull in a decent market for their products. But i don’t believe they will surpass WotC. The only reason piazo had an explosion in popularity was they started offering their system at the perfect time. They hit that perfect storm sweet spot where people didn’t like 4th edition and you had a lot of 3.5 content people were happy to continue to use. I feel they can offer two systems one being more narrative and the other feeling more traditional play to satisfy their fans.

Imagine making an 8 minute RU-vid video bashing an RPG system that isn't even out yet because some nerds left mean comments on your previous video.

Quite possibly my favorite TTRPG channel. Always enjoy your takes on things Baron. I think you are correct except for 1 thing. If the game is very well made, and the mechanics are fun and engaging for both GMs and Players then the toxic fan base will likely be "overlookable". Anyways Keep up the good work.

I guess it depends on how you define success. Success = take a significant part of the market share away, I would say is unlikely. Success = do something they enjoy and make enough money to sustain a moderate lifestyle, very likely. Becoming the next Bezos, Musk, or Gates doesnt always have to be the goal. What I don't know yet is what aspect of TTRPGs Daggerheart hopes to improve on that would take people away from all the others. I have a number of games on my shelf collecting dust. Not because they are not good, but because the learning curve and financial investment is too high to get my group over the fence. I hope this is more than trying to cash in on a cult of personality.

I dont think they are attempting to become a bigger product than 5e that is just such a high goal to reach for a startup system. It will most definitely have its players and Critical Role may even start a new series dedicated to playing on that system with a new world and characters / players to get peopled interested. And to the point of the toxic fanbase, any community with over a million fans will have at least 50k toxic individuals in that space. Its unfortunate but its usually how it goes. Whats important is that nobody on the cast and the company themselves exude toxicity and openly pushes anybody to be hateful in this manner.

2:31 "angel investor, former NSA agent, and current military arms dealer Mark Coro"?! wtf?!?!

Is there any actual online fanbases for anything on planet earth that isn't mostly composed of abusive/aggressive loudmouths? I actively avoid online fandom interaction because there isn't a single pop culture thing that I like that hasn't got trolls just waiting to pounce on the "wrong" sort of fan

Whatever the scenario will be and regardless the accuracy of the predictions, the real question is: Why should I care about what other people play?

Are physical stores still a big deal? I cannot recall the last time I set foot in a store.

I see what you did there. Interweaving your geopolitical knowledge proficiency into the topic at hand. Brilliant. I'd have to agree with most of what you've said here, though i hope to at least see an interesting game system. If anything, the x factor will be the product itself, which must be exceptional. Especially in the wake of so many independent dnd related variants arising, many of which are great quality, the game itself must be strong enough to draw the interest of GMs on a purely inspirational level. We shall see.

He poked the dragon again. What an absolute mad man. Someone get the Baron a trustworthy mechanic to check his brake lines

If they develop their business plan well, they will attempt a slow burn more than a flash bang, slowly buying market share. No one can take WotC 1on1 out of the blue, but I think a lot of it will also depend on whether the new system is actually good or not (it seems they are outsourcing some of the design, which is a clever move since Mercer isn't the best designer out there) but maybe even more on the general feel of "one D&D". People could always slide back to 5e if it fails to deliver, but having an older edition supported exclusively by 3rd party publishers will only dictate its slow descent into niche-play and eventually obscurity if we think more long term.

I have also had this negative experience with some parts of the Critical Role community. The barriers to entry to the brand TTRPG market you mention make a lot of sense.

Ouch! Fate Core AND Burning Wheel! You went there.🥺🥺🥺

Hey Rob, I really like your channel. Thank you for what you do. This whole thing about critical roles. New RPG dagger part something will not be competing for physical shelf space. Everything you talked about was in traditional marketing terms and critical role will continue to set the trend for a new type of marketing and delivery that is not reliant on hard copy. Have a great day sir!

I know this is only anecdotal but i have players that are huge critters and up till recently they would refuse to play anything but 5e. They had left are group for a while because we wanted to play a different system. But when on this stuff started to happen with wotc they ask to come back and the whole group droped 5e. We canceled all wotc subscriptions and we dont talk about unearth arcana or even there new 5e rules. This is just my playing group. I have friends i dont play ttrpg with but they have there own groups and they are seeing and telling me the same thing. So im sorry but i think you really dont understand the Situation here. Now this isnt meant to be mean but im a Millennial and hang out and talk with other millennials and gen z's. And it been shown that when gen z boycott or tells other to try something else they tend to do that as a group. I dont think CR new game is going to be a D&D slayer but it going to be bigger then you think.

I don't know that WOTC's relationship with big box stores will play much into it. I know this is anecdotal but I don't know a single person that gets D&D stuff from a brick and mortar anymore (save for the odd find at a local game shop). Everyone I know is either digital OR buys on Amazon. Again I am sure they are out there, I just can't imagine what percentage of people they make up.

I stopped playing 5e long before all of Wizard’s fiascos over the last 6 months. There are many games out there that produce a much better experience. If Critical Role can show people that Daggerheart is more fun to play and easier to run than 5e it will do a lot to peal large numbers of people away from WATC.

I was 100% behind you about DND. I am one of the few who have a burning hate for DND. Where you lost me is when you made your statement about FATE. Yes, I do not have a weekly game but FATE will always be in my wheelhouse of games I fall back to play. It just how different & story base gaming it is. Will always have a piece of my heart.

You hit one nail squarely on the head; modern consumer types. Something I've discovered becoming more and more rampant is the "fanboi" consumer type. I see it in all forms of gaming. People who are D&D fans...but never (or very rarely) play the game. 98% of their activities involve talking about the game, complaining about the game, watching RU-vid videos about the game, watching animated movies about the game, talking about the game on forums, arguing about the game on Reddit/Facebook, etc....but they don't actually play the game. They may even have hundreds if not thousands of dollars invested in game components (special dice, DM screens, terrain, MDF character boards, custom HeroForge miniatures, etc.). There is a similar crowd in other "mega-popular" games such as Warhammer. I know guys who eat/breathe/sleep Warhammer...or at least talking about it. They play maybe once every 6-8 months, but every single day, every chat, every text, every discussion and argument...Warhammer. That is the hobby nowdays, the peripheral environment - not even the actual product. I'd imagine that a massive about of Critical Role fans are in that category. They are - technically - consumers, but they're not real gamers or long-term customers.

I doubt thatbis the goal. They cant beat one of the biggest multinationals out and about on cashflow. No mather how fubar hasbro seems to have gone they are still a huge multinational. They can however make a similar and mayhaps compatible which keeps the show relatable enough for dnd players to watch. The books, the merch, the contract with amazon, the games they produce. They are diversifying the portfolio. Not a bad idea imho.

NSA Agent, and Arms Dealer...wait, WHAT?

Baron, while I total agree with your final point that there just aren't enough DMs among CR fans to make the game a smash success, I'm not sure on your "non-CR fan won't buy it because of toxic Critters" take though. While yes, there are definitely a loud, toxic portion of the CR fanbase, there's a loud, toxic portion of _every_ fanbase, including D&D and Pathfinder. I think what's most important is if the game scratches the particular itch that is out there. It seems that Matt Collville is also attempting to scratch that itch, and I think it'll be interesting to see both companies' takes on the casual, high fantasy RPG. Overall, if the games are good, they'll survive and maybe even thrive because they don't need to make 50M to be successful.

Wait. Say more about the arms dealer.

As a DM for a bunch of 30 somethings, I don't have the time to learn a new system. I wish the CR folks well and love their shows, but I don't have time to learn a new game much less all of my players.

Success here isn't removing 5e, its being a viable option for tables. For that to be the case you need 1) awareness of the product. This will happen. I've never watched cr and knew about daggerheart within hours of it being announced. 2) lower barriers to entry. CR will show people how to play the system, which certainly removes 1 big roadblock, but there are plenty others. 3) Content outside the players handbook. Having modules developed by 3rd parties or adaptable from existing adventures is hugely useful. DHeart doesn't need to dethrone 5e, just needs to not be doa and be a good system. I have no idea about the publishing of hardcopies, even what portion of profits are hardcover sales. If i were CR if be hiring people to port adventures to roll20, foundry, etc and have those ready for sale.

Excellent analysis as always :)

3:53 My group has two. As someone who loves tons of ttrpgs outside of D&D, the poor behavior of WoTC has been a godsend in getting my group to play something other than D&D. I recently ran Fate for them. And they loved it! They want it to turn it into more than the single adventure I was planning on just to dip our toes into it.

Figured I'd drop a comment as a Critical Role fan and forever DM I exist, didn't realize I was that rare though. Had no idea how toxic some of the fanbase could be, everyone I've interacted with has been pretty nice, but I've also stuck to a few discords and youtube channels that are generally fairly chill. Anyone who thinks Critical Role can go toe to toe with WotC is out of their minds, but I think they'll still probably be fairly successful, as I doubt anyone on the CR team is planning on going up against WotC

Yeah, yeah, TTRPGs and very important, but can someone please expand upon the ‘angel investor, former NSA agent, and military arms dealer Mark Koro’ part? Like.. what??

Game systems are not just about the initial Kickstarter success or the pre-release marketing, but also about how well they are designed. And if Daggerheart brings enough interesting stuff to the table that is currently missing i D&D and Pathfinder (and there are a lot of people who are not happy with either) then it could still be a success in the long run. But we know literally nothing about that system, hence this video feels a little premature. And well, I have barely interacted with Critical role and their fanbase so far, thus I was not even aware that there are many vitriolic people there, but overall the hobby is full of those folks as edition wars and plenty of system hate between various games demonstrates just fine.

I would enjoy music in the background.

Ya know, I still find it kinda funny... Every time I see one of these videos about "3rd party / Indie V. Big D'n'D", everyone always mentions games like Pathfinder, or Call of Cthulhu, but always leave out stuff like Vampire the Masquerade, Cyberpunk/RED, or RIFTS. Which also got me thinking... "Huh... does anyone even know about RIFTS?" Back in late '99-2001, my younger brother John came home with a stack of RIFTS books, and talking about how his H.S. gaming group really got into this game when looking for a D'n'D alternative. We'd all grown up playing AD'n'D (2nd Edition), and they were just looking for something new or different. Its basically built on the idea of creating any kind of character you can think of, and I mean literally any character, including gods, then the GM builds a game around the characters created by the group. Character creation is typically done in-group, so everyone knows what everyone else is playing, and the group can optimize for any possible scenario. It then becomes the go's job to build a story world that can challenge them. We only got to play a few sessions, life happens, but it was a really fun system and game to play in!

I'm beginning by saying that I have watched, Liked, and Subscribed your channel for a while now because I'm interested in your take on things. There's no hate here, only confusion. First, Wizards of the Coast leased their I.P., they did not bankroll 'Honor Among Thieves.' You get that, right? Also, I couldn't find any arms dealer information about Mark Koro, and the "white knight" comment was disingenuous: he matched Critter contributions to the 826LA charity, he did not bankroll Critical Role Productions. Was the "NSA agent" humor or confusion with Qualcomm's 5G "Non-StandAlone" service? I feel like I missed a joke. If not, I'm not saying you're wrong about the arms dealer thing, but I'd appreciate factual information about his unsavory associations. Please share. :) Now, on to your main points. I kinda feel like your doing a strawman regarding Critical Role Daggerheart success. All the talk about hundreds of millions to match and overpower D&D... What makes you think that CR's goal is to out-compete a game company that controls something like 85% of the TTRPG market? I'm sorry, but that would be stupid and insane. And they will not be competing for the same overseas printers, because D&D books are inarguably cheaply made garbage and CR's Exandria setting books are beautiful. No doubt they will be using a far smaller, better quality printing company. I can't speak to the toxic fan base, because I have rarely seen it, despite my long years as a Critter. That said, I only engage with other Critters on a large Facebook group. Do you feel that there are fewer toxic D&D fans (total numbers -or- per capita)? Forgive my presumption, but perhaps your subjective experience with the loudest, ride-or-die, zealots (who are far more likely to come over and respond to negative CR videos) has clouded your view of us. Lastly, in all TTRPGS, active game masters are few and far between. But I think you're right. Mercer is appreciated by only a minority of GMs, but if Daggerheart plays to that sort of GM, how many of those 3,000* GMs will buy the books and convert their player bases? Nope, definitely not any competition for D&D, but then, few of us think that's what Critical Role is actually trying to do. *Guestimating that 1 in a 1,000 watchers are active GMs. Sound fair? I'm one. ;)

You know...all these years have gone by and I still haven't seen a single episode of Critical Role. I mean, yeah, I've seen the odd 30 second clip here or there of some funny moment or meme from the show...but I've never actually watched an episode, or even part of an episode, from start to finish. That said, I'm a grumpy old man who shouts at kids to turn down their music and stay off my lawn, so maybe I'm just not their target audience in the first place. I mean, if they're trying to make their own RPG, good for them. I'll never begrudge someone for making an RPG. But yeah, all this stuff is pretty Greek to me. Just give me my indie RPGs, old-school classics, a handful of polyhedrals and a few close friends and we'll strike up a fantastical evening of heroics and adventure.

I think it stands a chance of replacing Pathfinder in 2nd place and maybe becoming the 21st Century "Runequest" for a while. A game that some people move over to because its new methodolgy is so different to D&D, while others who try it go straight back to D&D... for the exact same reasons. But I don't think it will last. I don't think many Pathfinder players will migrate, but the people who play D&D because of CR will. Back when we were kids you didn't need to dump a weeks wages on a Kickstarter to buy a new game. They sold them in shops, and they were affordable to pretty much anyone. Within the first few years of starting D&D I had also tried; Gamma World, Traveller, MERP, Rolemaster, Tunnels and Trolls, Star Frontiers, Bushido, Car Wars (OK more of a board game but we turned it into an RPG with a few tweaks,) and of course... Runequest which remains the best TTRPG, (though the current indie itteration, "Mythras" is my favourite of all of them) I've ever played. The Basic Roleplaying System it spawned also delivered a bunch of associated games that we also played including Pendragon, the Elric one whose name escapes me at the moment and... Call of Cthulhu. Is Runequest/Mythras a "better" game than D&D? I think so... absolutely. But it never had the same brand recognition as D&D, and the people who made it developed the game to make it better, rather than to homogenise it and make more sales. From second edition onward, (when TSR tried to address the rise and popularity of classless d100 skill based games LIKE Runequest by shoe-horning a pretty crappy skills system into it) D&D has been about producing a game that appeals to the largest number of people, and that means one thing. Lowest Common Denominator marketing. Daggerheart sounds fun, but I don't think it will become anything like the beast that D&D is. I think the whole 2d12 thing is cute, but unimportant. It's the core mechanic of the outcomes that will make or break it. Some players will love the whole "having to succeed with a caveat" element, and once they try it won't want to go back. While others will tire of it VERY quickly, particularly in combat, and will end up either copying the stuff CR use in their streams, (in which case what's the point of introducing a "creative" element to combat?) or just stick with one or two generic fall backs so they can move on to the next round. Others will tire of it and go back to D&D. There will be an early uptake, and probably a year or maybe two where Daggerheart appears to be on top, but that will dip. And the only way to overtake or even approach D&D will be to match their "catch all" model for snaring new players and keeping their hooks in existing players. Maybe in 40 Years Netflix 7.0 will release a TV Show about a group of crossover Millenials and Zoomers playing Daggerheart and getting politely approached by a non threatening monster from a non threatening dimension, while their parents refuse to let them leave the house. And all the neo-grognards will say "Ah... those were the days..." The joke would be that every time you see them playing over a three week period, it's just a different player telling their character's backstory to the group, while everyone else is just staring at their phone, and they never actually reach the point of playing the game. It would be called "Safer Thiings!"

>Be me. >Watching video, having a swell time >Happily thinking about DnD and the future of TTRPGs > 2:35 >wait wat?!

"DP would need to secure venture capital funding..." *Shows Silicon Valley Bank* Me: Yeah... maybe not SVB...

6:00 - Alright, I think you might be projecting here a little. I get that fandoms have toxicity, almost all of them do, but I highly doubt most people give a damn about them or even heard of them. Even more so in this case because how small that percentage is. I mean look at any big franchise and the toxicity is everywhere yet they still succeed. Star Wars is so toxic that its biggest haters are their own fans. Marvel, DC, Witcher, etc... all have supremely toxic fans and yet they're doing a-okay. Is CR on their level? Hell no, but that's a plus for them, the bigger you are the more the toxicity permeates the fandom. Because they're not that big yet, the toxicity is barely visible for most casual fans. I don't think anyone cares about toxic fans online if they're just playing with their friends, because it doesn't affect them in any way at all. They never see or interact with the toxicity, because they're not playing with those guys. You care bc you were on the bad side of a fan outcry, and I am sorry that happened to you, but that's a you problem, not a problem that'll cause any issues for the company. Also - Regarding The Legend of Vox Machina, it didn't succeed because of nostalgia, it succeeded bc it attracted a truckload of non-critters, all of whom became fans of the show and some even the streams afterwards. All you need to do it type Vox Machina reaction video on youtube and you will find hundreds of channels most of whom never watched any of the campaigns, watching the show and on each of those videos you will see new people who got into the show through word of mouth or their favorite influencers and youtube channels and whatever talking about the show.

Why does Daggerheart need to surpass D&D? Mausritter, City of Mist, and Worlds Without Number haven't, and they're all still fantastic games to run. I'm happy as long as a good tabletop game releases and exists. Daggerheart ought to merely be a game the creators & their fans can run themselves.

Based.

Ooof; Fate Core and Burning Wheel burns on the way out of the room too...

I don't think that the goal or expectation is for this to be another D&D, or some kind of WOTC killer. It's a small independent company, offering an alternative...and as a solid alternative with a dedicated fan base, I expect it to do very well.