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Deep Dive 31/10/2023 - A look into Storm Ciarán and beyond - Met Office Weather Forecast 

Met Office - UK Weather
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This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 31/10/2023.
An exceptionally deep area of low pressure, Storm Ciarán, will bring very strong winds and heavy rain, particularly to southern parts. In this deep dive we take a look at the cause of it, and how severe the wether is going to be.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Burkill.
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30 окт 2023

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Комментарии : 202   
@rhysbevan429
@rhysbevan429 7 месяцев назад
As a nerd, I love these deep videos.
@neonninja5049
@neonninja5049 7 месяцев назад
Your not it’s wise to keep safe are planet can be very dangerous. Road conditions are important.
@TXanders
@TXanders 7 месяцев назад
I've only just discovered this and I'm so excited about it 😂. I really want to show my parents but I know they will eye roll at me lol
@sarathelwell6701
@sarathelwell6701 7 месяцев назад
I can relate 😊
@UKAviationMovies
@UKAviationMovies 7 месяцев назад
It's amazing to see the Met Office jumping into RU-vid and providing this incredible and detailed content. Ace!
@thetessellater9163
@thetessellater9163 7 месяцев назад
Alex, you are an excellent presenter of this complicated area of knowledge and doing great work to help the public understanding of weather and meteorology. Thank you.
@sjdyt
@sjdyt 7 месяцев назад
That was a very packed deep dive! Informative and educational as always. Let’s hope people heed the storm warnings and don’t put themselves or others at risk!
@stevejosmith
@stevejosmith 7 месяцев назад
Thanks Alex, well done for a really informative Deep Dive, and explaining the background to Storm Ciaran. As a resident on the south coast, I'll certainly hunker down on Thursday morning!
@petittrainguernsey3297
@petittrainguernsey3297 7 месяцев назад
Think about us on Guernsey. 95mph winds expected! No ships bringing food. It’s gonna be exciting!
@ste2442
@ste2442 7 месяцев назад
Stay safe mate
@muddydog6605
@muddydog6605 7 месяцев назад
Guernsey has a fantastic gin industry..you'll be fine.
@lauraarcher1730
@lauraarcher1730 7 месяцев назад
Hold on to your wig!
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
Jersey Met have issued a red warning. Stay safe
@suewright1299
@suewright1299 7 месяцев назад
Many thanks Alex, a very informative and interesting Deep Dive. I really do hope everyone takes care and acts responsibly throughout the next couple of days. Thanks a lot
@lesshrubb203
@lesshrubb203 7 месяцев назад
Absolutely brilliant explanation of Storm Cieran and what to expect. Thank you very much.
@danjeory3659
@danjeory3659 7 месяцев назад
now that's what I call a weather forecast!
@royhornyak8596
@royhornyak8596 7 месяцев назад
Once again I want to thank you guys for all your hard work. I will be going to Portland Bill to photograph the storms arrival.
@Rutlandeye
@Rutlandeye 7 месяцев назад
Have Fun, great place to be. The Chesil Bank should have some impressive waves too.☔☔
@nicolarucci5585
@nicolarucci5585 7 месяцев назад
Such a professional, informative forecast as usual, Thank you Alex and the ‘ Deep Dive Met office team ! ‘
@bridgetpainter8194
@bridgetpainter8194 7 месяцев назад
Thank you Met Office for you informative and helpful weather report 😊
@wizzytimeless
@wizzytimeless 7 месяцев назад
I’m also a very amateur nerd, these deep dives certainly help me better understand how the barometric pressure ares are created and how they effect the weather as they track their course. Really appreciate your explanations and expertise thank you.
@juliecollard9429
@juliecollard9429 7 месяцев назад
When we were young , we used to call them winter storms , that was back in the 50,s .
@danceswithbadgers
@danceswithbadgers 7 месяцев назад
Yes, I think the gist of all this is; it's going to be wet and windy. I think I have that right....
@arsefook
@arsefook 7 месяцев назад
Thankyou for such a kind hearted update on the bad weather.....😊
@robertturner7892
@robertturner7892 7 месяцев назад
Thanks Alex very clear and detailed presentation. I find these deep dives really informative and educational.
@andyfreem2857
@andyfreem2857 7 месяцев назад
Excellent information. Thank you. Sometimes it is quite difficult to locate Great Britain outline on Atlantic scale charts. Particularly when using a phone sized screen maybe an icon our clearer outline?
@roomiller
@roomiller 7 месяцев назад
Deep dive! Always useful and interesting!
@mistakay9019
@mistakay9019 7 месяцев назад
amazing Alex, love all the detail and the graphics that you guys produce. The total cumulative rainfall graphic used for Babet was top notch stuff. just a suggestion, when you have the yellow wind and rain overlapping, perhaps diagonal pinstripe the wind areas so it's clearer but also yellow?
@JohnMount-gz6dz
@JohnMount-gz6dz 7 месяцев назад
Wow so much worry for Autum low windy rainy pressure system it's so historic 40 mph winds in London City shut down😀
@tinahurst6250
@tinahurst6250 7 месяцев назад
Thanks for the master class Alex! So on point! Your like a super AI Met head weather machine but with the added bonus of compassion and due care ❤
@allancollins1531
@allancollins1531 7 месяцев назад
Lots of work goes into these forecasts thank you brilliant
@keithrussell1146
@keithrussell1146 7 месяцев назад
Alex as I live in the South East I guess this storm means prepare for the worst and hope for the best. An excellent piece. Thanks
@martywig8653
@martywig8653 7 месяцев назад
Excellent lad - that can`t be easy. Lets hope these forecasts become the norm and folk taKe more interest in their environment - that can`t but help to raise sympathy/empathy with our transient climate. Thank you.
@ShocksArmy2000
@ShocksArmy2000 7 месяцев назад
These are Brilliant videos. It’s actually the exact same track as the great storm I think as well but I may be wrong. I think red warnings will happen for Kent and Sussex coast. We need the pray this track stays a little south because if this goes north we’ll expect over 100mph gusts in places
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
There are some similarities
@Paultv38
@Paultv38 7 месяцев назад
Whilst your map is generally centralised on your screen perhaps the graphic guys could outline the contours a bit more so the cloud cover doesn't obscure so much, otherwise fantastic presentation 😊
@tmartin1264
@tmartin1264 7 месяцев назад
Great explanation, Alex. Thank you! Much appreciated.
@robharvey1796
@robharvey1796 7 месяцев назад
Hi Alex, this kind of weather input in the spring and summer months for wildfire risk would be great, especially around the cold dry easterly weather patterns that can reduce RH and ultimately increase our risk of wildfire. I'm a national wildfire advisor so this kind of information is excellent for response preparation and community engagement.
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
We'll keep doing the deep dives all year. WIldfire risk is a sensitive subject
@robharvey1796
@robharvey1796 7 месяцев назад
@@metoffice Thank you, I know we already have the FSI and FDR but a deep dive on predicted weather patterns helps responders prepare rather than committing to saying it will happen. So many variables but the weather is the key player and the 3 month outlook goes someway toward preparing responders but a more accurate forecast closer to the event would be very useful.
@billclark2720
@billclark2720 7 месяцев назад
Excellent service full coverage makes it very clear, thank you all. Bill
@alanb8696
@alanb8696 7 месяцев назад
Thank you Alex
@wildlifegardener-tracey6206
@wildlifegardener-tracey6206 7 месяцев назад
Excellent presentation again Alex. Such a lot to explain about what we can expect. Great advice.
@sinistral9629
@sinistral9629 7 месяцев назад
I live in West Cornwall, and vividly remember when Storm Eunice passed through in February 2022 (mainly because it took off most of my conservatory roof!). So I'm worried about Ciarán, and wonder how it will compare to Eunice.
@rolty1
@rolty1 7 месяцев назад
First class information Alex, thank you, quite a scary few days coming up!
@simonyapp
@simonyapp 7 месяцев назад
Very well presented, thank you (I hope no one is hurt on Thursday)
@andrewastill8542
@andrewastill8542 7 месяцев назад
Doubled up all the lines on my boat mooring today in preparation. Adding in the high tide with a low around 950HPa will mean life on the pontoon will get interesting on Thursday.
@user-xo2bs3on3g
@user-xo2bs3on3g 7 месяцев назад
is the pressure level going to be similar to the Great storm of 1987 ?
@andrewhillis9544
@andrewhillis9544 7 месяцев назад
WE ARE ABOUT TO FIND OUT ! ! !🤔
@lisamorgan3565
@lisamorgan3565 7 месяцев назад
Thank u for what u do 😊
@RWTWM
@RWTWM 7 месяцев назад
Tons of information in this one. Thanks. Fingers crossed the impacts are on the lower end of the envelope with storm Ciaran. One small issue I have with MetO presentations is when considering the temperature of air masses (the difference over north america powering the jet stream), or when showing rainfall, there is no scale to associate with the colours. Often we hear of warm colours or colder air in blue. Or alternately of bright colours depicting heavier rainfall. Even if its just a link to a webpage, would it be possible to see what the modelled values were in °C or mm/hr respectively?
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
Good point, we don't usually put them on our other broadcasts as not enough time for that extra info, but in a deep dive they could be useful
@philipmurphy2
@philipmurphy2 7 месяцев назад
Loads of information, Thanks Met
@robross5687
@robross5687 7 месяцев назад
Very useful deep dive, thanks for the great video!
@ciaranbradshaw4942
@ciaranbradshaw4942 7 месяцев назад
THANK YOU SO MUCH ALEX YOU REALLY EXPLAINED IT VERY VERY WELL DONE 😁👍🏼& I REALLY LOVE THESE DEEP DIVES SO MUCH EVERY TUESDAY'S ♥️😁🌞⛈🌧👍🏼.
@spiciestcargo
@spiciestcargo 7 месяцев назад
Great job very informative and helpful
@EErail26
@EErail26 7 месяцев назад
Will be starting to watch these again as we approach the time of year when (hopefully!) we might get some snow…
@user-sk3fc5bb1h
@user-sk3fc5bb1h 7 месяцев назад
Hi Alex,I hope that the met office management realise the quality of your presentations which are always so clearly and enthusiastically presented.
@stevenflint5271
@stevenflint5271 7 месяцев назад
1st timer loved all of it thank you
@Marcbr73
@Marcbr73 7 месяцев назад
I actually do enjoy the Met office deep dive and the 10 day trends👍
@willsumnall3499
@willsumnall3499 7 месяцев назад
Another excellent presentation. Thank you.
@causewaykayak
@causewaykayak 7 месяцев назад
Great Job . Tons of material and very well presented. More of these Please !
@adelerice3877
@adelerice3877 7 месяцев назад
Very helpful and informative thankyou
@samanthawoodward7551
@samanthawoodward7551 7 месяцев назад
Weather nerd here! Love to be educated. Great videos thank you.
@kamiSandhu
@kamiSandhu 7 месяцев назад
Thank Yoi Alex! Amazing video
@jpayne8078
@jpayne8078 7 месяцев назад
Very informative, and an excellent presenter. Another great Deep Dive.
@PeteMarshall-tp3ih
@PeteMarshall-tp3ih 7 месяцев назад
Thanks as always. Love these deep dives, not dumbed down like so many forcasts.
@anthonycline9007
@anthonycline9007 7 месяцев назад
Another new chart - the confidence chart! Excellent as usual.🌀⛈️🌪️🌩️
@rayhaddock779
@rayhaddock779 7 месяцев назад
Brilliant to get such a detailed run through events like this - thanks
@civagiarn
@civagiarn 7 месяцев назад
Thanks Alex, I find these very interesting!
@jonkayl9416
@jonkayl9416 7 месяцев назад
Great Explanations. Thank you!
@lisamorgan3565
@lisamorgan3565 7 месяцев назад
Very interesting information!
@SamsVlogstrainsmore
@SamsVlogstrainsmore 7 месяцев назад
Thanks for sharing another deep dive Alex. Very helpful info!
@SimonARBaker
@SimonARBaker 7 месяцев назад
Great session again, particularly like the background detail behind the main weather forecasts such as the probability around Low/High and confidence. Also love the source of our weather systems and the jet stream such compression of hot and cold over America. Great stuff.
@sky3fallmusic
@sky3fallmusic 7 месяцев назад
Visiting the UK (I’m from Scotland originally) over the next fortnight, so very useful for me :) Thank you!
@justinwilson3922
@justinwilson3922 7 месяцев назад
Bruh hahahaha Scotland is in the uk 😂😂 bruh i think you were meant to say your visiting England 😂
@sky3fallmusic
@sky3fallmusic 7 месяцев назад
@@justinwilson3922 🤦🏻‍♀️
@grahammelvin5398
@grahammelvin5398 7 месяцев назад
Excellent, Indepth forecast. NW Scotland stragely dry ( well, than it mortally is in Autumn) ATM.
@zebedee5158
@zebedee5158 7 месяцев назад
Really well set out. Thank you.
@christinepease890
@christinepease890 7 месяцев назад
Thank you, Alex
@MsNorthernsoulboy
@MsNorthernsoulboy 7 месяцев назад
very well done alex thx
@ianbirks463
@ianbirks463 7 месяцев назад
Superb deep dive again. Easy to understand . Here in Derbyshire the ground is very saturated. Why is the winds coming from the east a lot and not from normally from the west. Is it a local issue or a international issue?
@francesca1963cd
@francesca1963cd 7 месяцев назад
Absolutely fascinating Deep Dive,thank you Alex.Found the track of Storm Ciaran ,interesting before its arrival in the UK.Amazing how common sense in bad weather seems to be lacking in some people,but that is another story! Once again many thanks.
@gamingtonight1526
@gamingtonight1526 7 месяцев назад
I think this sort of thing will continue for another 2 - 3 months, at least!
@Carol-ev6ni
@Carol-ev6ni 7 месяцев назад
Hi this is the first time I'm watching Deep Dive. Great information thankyou.
@jimparlett4099
@jimparlett4099 7 месяцев назад
As the planet warms, these storms are going to become the norm for UK weather, and we'll keep breaking rainfall accumulation records . . . .
@jimparlett4099
@jimparlett4099 7 месяцев назад
@@raystewart3648 The geological records show that there was more rain during the MWP and some coastal areas (eg round Sardinia) had to be abandoned. Abandoning coastal regions now, when we have much higher population density, would be more problematic. The MWP was regional, part of the North Atlantic Oscillation, not global, as our current climate changes are, and was followed by the Little Ice Age. With higher temperatures in the deep oceans, we are not going to see a new Little Ice Age - yes, we'll still see oscillations in temperatures, but the baseline trajectory is trending upwards.
@raystewart3648
@raystewart3648 7 месяцев назад
@@jimparlett4099 That is all fine, and I agree and knew this. However Earth has gone through much more extreme weather than we are in now. We are currently still within the latter parts of an ice age that started 2.5 million years ago. The main Pleistocene Epoch, lasted up an till 11500 years ago, but we are still in the later edges of this period. Temp have risen to twice the temp of to day over millions of years and has dropped as well, even before humans where around. My comment was meant to draw peoples attention to the fact that weather has been much worse in the past. I am not anti-climate change, I recycle, even though its now to late. If countries like China and India, plus the US still use coal on mass, then there is nothing much the rest of the world can do about it.
@davidfossey6386
@davidfossey6386 7 месяцев назад
Ooohhhh i love a deep dive video, first time watching these
@johnwelbourn3811
@johnwelbourn3811 7 месяцев назад
Exiting times weather wise. Huge storm surges in Liverpool bay spring tides this week, >10m total height. The track of Ciaran across Southern England should guarantee saturation UK news media coverage.
@lauramitchell5462
@lauramitchell5462 7 месяцев назад
That was a very informative deep dive. Thank you for this useful information. Is there a chance that the amber warnings could be upgraded to red? Or could amber be enough to cover the impacts of this storm?
@trick700
@trick700 7 месяцев назад
Love the way you get rid of the jet stream at the touch of a button! 😮Please explain more about the 3D aspect of weather, for example, is there a barrier between lower atmosphere and the zone where the jet stream forms? How is lower and upper jet stream connected please?
@colinhamilton9286
@colinhamilton9286 7 месяцев назад
Excellent brief.
@peterfullerton4028
@peterfullerton4028 7 месяцев назад
Superb.
@gemaherve7875
@gemaherve7875 7 месяцев назад
Thank you from Jersey 🙏🏼
@alexanderwilson602
@alexanderwilson602 7 месяцев назад
Very well presented and informative ,we have been warned🤔
@boatbuilderjon5636
@boatbuilderjon5636 7 месяцев назад
brilliant presentation
@jimmyjohnstone5878
@jimmyjohnstone5878 7 месяцев назад
I like these videos. Could you do some more which cover the influence of low pressure systems and high tides on the impact of heavy rain. Coastal areas have taken a hammering recently and it seems that drainage and flood prevention systems aren't being built to cope with these extreme wet weather events which also coincide with high wind, low pressure and high tide effects.
@davidb5865
@davidb5865 7 месяцев назад
Good presentation!!
@EmilyEvans401
@EmilyEvans401 7 месяцев назад
Thanks Alex for this week’s Deep Dive. 😀 sorry I didn’t watch it on Tuesday, i was getting ready for Halloween!! 🎃
@davidbrownsfilms
@davidbrownsfilms 7 месяцев назад
Very interesting, thank you.
@V081WLBlue
@V081WLBlue 7 месяцев назад
Ciarán is pronounced Key-'Raw'-on, like the name Ron, eg CiaRon, due to the fada over the last 'a'.
@Salena905
@Salena905 7 месяцев назад
Already got the met office app, but curious about deep dive on RU-vid. I'm a visual learner so for me this is excellent, really well explained and the modern tech helps even more, wish I had this when I was much younger. I have subscribed and have also subscribed to the met office learning channel too as heard it explains that's good too. Thanks again really pleased. ☺️👏
@chrishughes62able
@chrishughes62able 7 месяцев назад
Thank you once again Alex and the Met Office for these excellent Deep Dive videos. Does the Met Office produce a general beginners guide to the weather book or printed information or is there something you could recommend?
@borassictime918
@borassictime918 7 месяцев назад
I’m getting flashbacks to the 1987 Great Storm…🥴
@martindonovan290
@martindonovan290 7 месяцев назад
Travelling to Manchester about 1 am very detail thank you
@carolinekersey2981
@carolinekersey2981 7 месяцев назад
Does the midlands not get any weather? I appreciate we probably will not get the brunt of storm Ciaran but we still get weather and would like to know what to expect
@annebarrios9670
@annebarrios9670 7 месяцев назад
Will it delay flights in Manchester?
@lawrenceharvey7976
@lawrenceharvey7976 7 месяцев назад
Love to get some tidal surge info & sea conditions. Tides are huge of late. Really like this content
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
Good suggestion thanks
@lisamorgan3565
@lisamorgan3565 7 месяцев назад
Will there be a wind warning for South East Wales?
@grahamedwards6824
@grahamedwards6824 7 месяцев назад
Definitely going to get my barograph going and try to record the record low pressure…. Amazing insight into what is about to happen……
@andrewhillis9544
@andrewhillis9544 7 месяцев назад
I REMEMBER THE GREAT STORM OF 1987 AND THE DESTRUCTION THAT CAUSED SO I AM KEEPING AN EYE ON THIS STORM CIARÁN TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS ? ? ?🤔
@iangarbutt7451
@iangarbutt7451 7 месяцев назад
Excellent Analysis of a very difficult to predict situation....Similarities to mid October 1987.... 🌬🌧
@newda898
@newda898 7 месяцев назад
One day can you run through the different models and how/why they bring different results? Do the Americans have a model that is better at predicting their weather? (or just a bigger computer). Does the European model just throw everything at our shores and use us as a windbreak?
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
I keep wanting to do a deep dive look at the different models, waiting for a 'quieter' weather day to do it. Maybe next week?
@DrJoDuthie
@DrJoDuthie 7 месяцев назад
Thanks Alex for the video! Particularly explaining explosive cyclogenesis. I was wondering why Storm Ciaràn appeared to be developing out of nothing. Is it normal for the jet stream to be like this at this time of year or are there other factors at play? El Niño?
@metoffice
@metoffice 7 месяцев назад
Whilst it's normal for the jet to be stronger at this time of year, it is particularly strong and the way Ciarán interacts with it means it's going to be so strong. El Niño has an impact on how tropical cyclones intensify, not certain how it impacts lows coming across towards the UK.
@stephenflower2486
@stephenflower2486 7 месяцев назад
when you show the weather can you include Normandy, Brittany and other places near us. As many people travel and have holiday homes.
@tabs5375
@tabs5375 7 месяцев назад
Back in May, you guys did a summer trend video that I found very useful and was very accurate in terms of the weather we saw over the summer. Will you be doing one for the winter too?
@petercole2092
@petercole2092 7 месяцев назад
I live in a town that was badly flooded by the last storm the ground has not dried out so likely to flood again. Been a El Nino year I get the feeling we are just seeing the beginning of what is to come.
@justinwilson3922
@justinwilson3922 7 месяцев назад
If ciaran is the beginning then we will get a c5 hurricane 😂
@Beckford4000
@Beckford4000 7 месяцев назад
Already told my aunt to cancel her plans to travel from SW UK to London on Thursday. Worried about my friend flying in tonight from Prague to London.
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