⭐️ If you have Nebula, go watch this there for the full, extended version. If you don't, why not? It's only $15/year and gives you extra- long versions of these videos: curiositystream.com/polymatter Also, Part 2 of this series is here: ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-EgVXRtq5EIg.html
Heyyy despite my profile picture I am not chinese, just a great sino phile and I think one thing you didn't mention in the video is the fact that in china seniors work literally until their deaths and are able to do so because they have much better diets and are far more active and healthy then their western counterparts, however I know this only slightly delays the problems you have touched upon in the video.
And Greek men don't see the light at the end of the tunnel therefore no dating and starting families? Hard to believe Singaporean and Thai men are reaching the same conclusion despite being better off financially. They just don't see good future ahead.
I learned this whole concept from a game called Banished. I wasn't producing enough food or clothing so I didn't add more houses for people to have more babies. Suddenly almost everyone was too old to have babies. I build some houses and had a few babies, but my population plummeted over the next 20 years. From a town of 600 to 200 within a few years. Now every other house was abandoned, outposts unmanned, not enough firewood to trade for livestock, fields going unharvested. It was pretty bad and I learned a valuable lesson about linear population growth instead of exponential.
Here is how things look in the world. To have a stable population the birth rate needs to be 2.0 and that is not counting disease or natural disasters. Every western country right now has a birth rate below two. Hungary has realized this and is actively trying to build their marketplace to encourage an increase in birth rate. Germany for the last 40 years has had a birth rate of about 1.3 and its average age is about 45 years old. Pakistan has a birth rate of 3.5 and an average age of 21 years of age. Western populations have only been growing through immigration and not the birth rate.
Banished just received a much needed update you can now open up the southern border & allow mexicans to bolster the ranks of your populace plus they will work for cheap! gotta love unfettered immigration
its true. my first thought was "they could just have more children" then i thought about me and my wife, living with both my parents and her parents on a meager salary. would i want more than 1 kid? would i want any? especially if both of us only grew up as only children? its a death spiral.
Hmm. Hadn't thought about that. Why would the average single child grow up thinking that they should have many children? Chinese individuals were most likely never even exposed to any such households growing up... it would not even factor into your thinking as a plausible scenario.
My wife and I are on good salaries and we don't want children either. So if you got people who want children but can't afford it and those who can afford but don't want them (traitors! *FOR THE MOTHERLAND! *) it kinda leaves nations in a bit of bind. Not just China most western nations are also going through population stagnation through low birth rate.
@@jmgonzalez4 Excuse me? Like you literally going to throw this out as an acceptable fact? China has boomer generations as well. I have like more than 8 uncles and aunts, more than I can care to count. Mao made them breed like rabbits. The only reason why we don't have huge families today is a) child policy b) economic limitations.
Bingo, country gets richer, get raised better, get smarter earlier, then you get kids later, cause you were smart enough to realize what a drag having them is (in many ways). Heck I still think of it the same way I think of pets, if I'm at an office a third of the day, sleeping another third, and have to divide the last third between myself, my family, and getting from place to place, what time is left for a pet, let alone a kid. Maybe if working from home becomes the standard, and we knock off these stupid "8" hour work days, but fuck by the time that happens I'll be too old to care.
@@jr-wv4qw nowadays you do not need to import population any more. More and more robots will replace human beings. Robots are still way way cheaper than human beings, any human beings after all. Robots will never complain about salary and working environment .
The replacement rates in all European countries, except maybe 1 or 2, are below 2.0. Sadly, in Eastern European countries, they're often as low as 1.2 or 1.1 thanks to the toxic influence of the former Soviet Union.
@@zjg3913 Take ur hate speech elsewhere, bigot. Families don't need to be as large because child mortality is decreasing, birth control methods are widespread and people rather focus on their own lives rather than spend their entire adulthood taking care of infants. You are just angry because no woman would want to carry your child.
I am not entirely sure what culture will develop amongst 34 million single men. But I feel very safe in theorizing a keen appreciation for quality hand lotions as a shared attribute.
@Smunstu Stinkymonster Well, it is kinda true, just like South Korea and Japan, our birth rate is declining fast. I think this is partly due to the culture and and partly due to the society. However, luckly, we have enough people, and who knows, maybe by 2050s we have robots to help us. BTW EU, US even India all have declining brith rate. This is a world problem, if we want to fix this, we should fight for The Fourth Industrial Revolution.
I am so happy you have studied the whole of the Chinese policy. Most on here relied on the CIA, Voice of America and CNN and other media for their information. Perhaps you are NOT brainwashed! (Sarcasm doesn't work o stupid people you know!)
@@onlyonecai nah all they have to do is point a gun at every family and simply require them to have three kids. If they were able to force thousands of families to undergo forced abortions to accomplish 100 days without birth they can probably do the direct opposite.
@@Windja69 Every Saturday, all married couples below 35 are required to attend marriage re-education meeting where films are shown. Food & alcohol are aplenty. Near end of night, couples are shown to stalls so they can discuss and act out what they have learned. Supervisors will monitor the stalls and if husbands cannot perform his duties, a willing volunteer will take his place. The Fatherland will be prosperous with tiny people in no time.
This reminds me of something an Asian friend once said to me in a mild rage (in response to him graduating and his parents immediately asking him about a wife) "How did you expect me to go from study, study, study to wife in one go? All my life has been 'no girls, only work' and now you flip the script? How is that supposed to work?" So yeah, birth rates in east asian countries aren't doing so well, and haven't for decades in some cases
@@knoahbody69 they still are. Lol social security doesn't grow faster than inflation, so it's as worthless as having thrown money into a safe. The only way social security can work is from contributions from the younger workforce. So, yeah. Children and grandchildren are still social security. 😂 Now, if we had let that insane amount of money become invested... There wouldn't be any issue with it running out. It's just that congress can't simply dip into it when they want to fund some pork if it's invested.
Babies are the drivers of the whole economy. Husbands and Wives raise their children together, working, buying things, feeding kids, paying mortgage, etc. Run out of babies and your Nation goes extinct. The Most Valuable thing you can do, is fall in Love. Get Married, Have lots of kids. Babies DRIVE Demand, as they are, by definition - the largest consumers. New clothes as they grow, new furnature, new cars and homes, lots of food... so the ideal equation is to have 6 to 12 babies. USA cheap food helps turn surplus calories into human beings. A pallet load of potatoes has value, but convert that pallet load of potatoes into a dozen human beings and you have increased productivity and added value to profits. $$$
As a little money eating machine which is starting to offer its first years of value to society i just wanna say: Those 25-ish years were the best time haha
Is it though? The baby boomers should have killed America, if that was the case. A that money used with no capital. You had more baby's than every other generation combined, yet it was the most explosive economic time in US history. And yet, when those baby's turned 45, they made things worse for their little money eaters.
@@patrickasplund The situation the US found itself in following WW2 was pretty unique: Europe in ruins and in debt, Japan bombed and occupied, most of Asia under authoritarian communism while the US mainland was almost untouched by war and had built a massive manufacturing industry.
As productivity requires less physical labor, why is it so hard to believe seniors can't contribute value to the economy? Retirement is a luxury. And let's not forget that it is the money of those older generations' retirement funds that invest in the start ups and continuing growth companies. And when they pass on, that money gets left behind. Folks, there's cause for optimism yet.
I sort of support this one child policy. There are just too many people in China. A lot of issues can't be solved and new problems emerge everyday because of its population. THe government and the people made a mistake early on to boom the population and now everyone should pay for it. Technology will make it easier for fewer people to support the aging group - they have to. It is better than having the same amount of people or more. The earth is not that resourceful to support 1.4 billion people for ever. When I heard that by the end of the this century, China's population will decrease to current's 50%, I am so happy about it. Unfortunately I can live to see that day but 6-700 million is more than enough.
@japanese 101✇ They do actually, just not the kind that could support a large military and a large economy that could be spent on imperialistic policies.
Western media is ideologically marxist and they are trying to bring about the collapse of capitalism. Hence why everything they do has an agenda and here is the thing most countries media is based on western media so they will follow suit.
@@bighands69 I think , it s recklessness. Just recklessness of "mighty, intelligent" people who control agenda more than anythinge else. We are about to pay a lot for that. So, this is the way, obviously.....
Japan is a prime example...no immigration...booming population and productivity in the 1900’s...and now they are literally destroying their currency and don’t even care.
I was in Germany in the 1980’s when I saw on my morning commute, trains carrying very large industrial machinery, later that month I saw a program about these very machines. They were heavy industrial machines from the German steel industry. They were being shipped to China. These were the machines that built Germany’s post war economy and were about to build Chinas new economy. I was seeing history in the making. Today China has been remarkably successful with their second hand industrial revolution.
@Normie meme your logic is flawed in so many ways I can't even begin LOL. You should think about why America moved the industries over. What environments supported that. Same in India, and rest of 2nd world and 3rd world countries. Also everyone "steals" or feel "inspired" on that technology spectrum. If you invented a gasoline engined car, does that mean everyone else who makes a gasoline engined car stole your technology? Plagiarism is not chinese nor even technology exclusive. It's just how the world works. Ancient cultures like China, Egypt, Greek etc have invented many things that western nations claimed they invented after copying. This is like the same thing...it's double standard to say it's okay one way but not the other, not to mention it's norm to do so
@Normie meme Excusez-moi, China has been the top economy in the world for hundreds of years and maintained trading surplus for a long time. It’s BIGGEST historic fault is didn’t invest her gaining into colonization as Western countries did. If wasn’t invaded and impoverished by the Western counties, and the global monetary system didn’t switch from silver to gold China was supposed to have resources and sovereignty to maintain its development. Your memory is just to short to remember a history long enough to tell the whole story.
USA has been sending factories to China for decade. They make the American workers train their Chinese replacements before they fire them and ship the whole factory to China. One of the things the Chinese bought when Nixon opened up trade with them was 3 707 Boeing jetliners. 2-3 years later they had built their own jet that looked EXACTLY like a 707, but it weighed twice as much.
As an American who lived in China for six years, I must say - your B-roll game is spot on. Children studying all day then practicing piano, the parents working their asses off, while the grandpa plays xiangqi and grandma does tai chi in the park. This is day-to-day Chinese life in a nutshell.
Can you imagine If the US had 1.4 billion people rather than 330 million it would be a polluted deforested mess like China and India ,needing imports to feed itself. China has as many cars on the road as the US has people! www.rfidtires.com/how-many-cars-are-in-china.html and puts more C02 in the air than North America and Europe put together.
"practicing piano" its the real reason why the Chinese economy will collapse - a whole generation growing up with no real non-academic skills other than playing piano LOL
@F C this is from economicshelp.org “The biggest absolute emissions come from China and the United States. In terms of CO2 emissions per capita, China is ranked only ranked 47th, at 7.5 metric tonnes per capita.”
@@Crashed131963 (1) China is investing in EV very aggressively, much money so than in the west. Chinese startups has been producing increasingly affordable, common, and good EVs. (2) Europe and North America avoid pollution by shipping out their trash and move high pollution industry out of the country. How does this justify when they are blaming the very country they ship their trash and industry to for pollution?
@@KungKras REally? I don´t like that guy too much his china "will run out of people" is pure clickbait to take advantage of all the anti-china campain going on I refuse by the way to open that kind of videos yet they are poping up all the time on my feed
@@zaraiwzara While the government isn’t that bad they definitely took their time to introduce this policy. By now it’s too late and the culture has already revolved around having one child and won’t change for a while.
@@RoflcopterLamo the chinese are not shy to take inspiration from the fall of the soviet union, and stagnation of japan, they know what is going on and are ready to improve the conditions of people who have children, i agree it is a little late, but they plan way more ahead then western societies
@@zaraiwzara Gonna have to disagree because it literally took China the infamous “Great Leap Forward “ which caused mass famine and at least 20 million deaths for them to even come close to developed country status before they were just a backwater agricultural country with their only good resource being their population. Clearly Mao did not see that coming. The people before Mao were even worse cause they just let the country stagnant.Or ya know the whole gunning down people at a certain square.Not the best solution.
@@RoflcopterLamo The cost of "development" for western european countries was the exploitation of the americas and africa, the cost of "development" for the united states was the expansion of a english colony into mexico and indigenous territories which caused a genocide which is still happening today, the cost of industrialisation for england and the united states was the disgusting situation that the industrial workers found themselves in, and the even worse condition that the enslaved indians and africans found themselves throught the british empire, that said empire which killed dozens of millions of indians, china had become a agricultural country because of western economies forcefully pumping cheap products into the qing dinasty, which turned the qing from one of the greatest economies of their time to a nation which any domestic industries and businesses could not thrive due to cheap western products, they are only getting back where they belong, if you avaliate china's development by wertern standards, they will never be such country, even when such a shithole as the us is considered one, and what the fuck does this have to do with the planing of the chinese government? the chinese political elite thinks in terms of decades and centuries, the american one in terms of weeks, a country in which its citizens refuse to defend the nation and the state and only think about their private situation, and the elite thinks not for progress and the good of the people, but for expansion of power, deserves to be subjugated.
As someone who has been in Chinese internet spaces. r/incel and r/karen is the norm in their internet spaces. Meeting actual people? Everyone is okay like meeting people in every other country. Meeting people in internet spaces? Especially about political matters, just turn that computer off, man, it's not worth it.
The incel phenomenon makes sense when you think about it. Why would men want to contribute to a society where they both see no gain from it and don't consider it a society worth investing in? Not surprising that hypergamous societies end up being more violent.
As a young Chinese, I said that most of them are worried about getting married and having children, mainly due to the high housing price and the cost of education
@@lubu2960 It may be difficult for people from other countries to understand. This only happened in the three East Asian countries, China, Japan and South Korea. The social culture here is full of extreme pressure and competition. This is also the main reason for the low birth rate and the aging population.
@@butterfly7562 but I don't think it is, all developed countries are suffering from housing crisis, low birth rates and aging population but they have been opened to a lot of inmigration. Does China have a lot of inmigrants?
@@lubu2960 The immigrants of the world do not like to go to China because China is not a developed country. This country has a large population and high employment pressure. Immigrants could not find good jobs in the china, so immigrants will only like to go to more developed countries, such as the West country.
It's mandatory for companies to follow, not the person. If they want, they can keep working. If they want to retire, the company has to let them. Though you don't see it a lot, sometimes doctors here work past the retirement age, but the majority of the workforce in China is manual labor. Those guys can't wait to retire and there would be a huge uproar if they weren't allowed to after 40+ years of grueling labor. That's where the problem comes from. The majority of the workforce will opt to retire the minute they hit that age. Working here, for the most part, sucks.
So Mandatory I was asked to renew my contract for a further 6 months when I was 65. But that was in the other China. Not the one reported on in the west. When will you people wake up to the crap you are feed my he media? China has changed a lot since all you keyboard experts were there!
east asian countries by western standards are very much conservative yet somehow people in the comments still manage to blame feminism or "sjws" for their low birth rate. I'm betting these kind of people has had a hard time trying to find a partner
China currently has a surplus male population of approximately 45 million mostly under the age of 25 years old. Translation: soldiers for conscription or un-married men, which do you prefer >
As an Indian, I am fascinated by China. We existed for so long. Hope we dont get into unnecessary conflict. I dont want war. Edit: May have started a comment war. Dont go there.
It’s appears that quite a bit of anti-China fake news in India and YT. Usually only the Five Eye countries diving unfounded misinformation on China. Do people understand the differences?
You see in youtube people have a incentive to produce controversial and sensationalized videos. It would bring more views, would spur channel growth, subscriber count would increase, which means ad money. Plus China is one country, where silicon valley app isnt present. So that means a lot is unknown and people are curious. So theres a market for sensationalized China related videos. Fact checking or debunking of false calims doesnt get the same traction. Btw Chinese medias like Global Times too engages in anti India narrative. Its all a case of big corporation trying to curry favour with govts with "nationalistic narrative".
''what does a generation of young people think when they face far more challenging prospects than did their parents?'' We call 'em millennials and blame em for literally anything
Here after China declares the “third child policy” that permits, if not forcefully, the family to have three children. However, it might be too late, as the video suggested.
Mass immigration successfully solves the problem of low fertility. Look at Canada: its fertility rate is 1.47 and still they have doubled their population in the last 60 years.
@@ОнуфрийНечепуренко However, I don’t think there will be mass immigration to China shortly. First, the Chinese language is hard to learn as a second language. Compare to English 26 alphabets and 2000 vocabularies; an average person needs to remember at least 1000 alphabets and 2000 to 3000 vocabularies to have an essential Chinese ability to read and write. Second, China isn't as big as you think. Although China is around the same size as America, 99% of the population is located in less than 50% of its territory. The unequal development between the city and the country results in the insane housing price compared to the average salaries. Thirdly, China isn't as open as America, Canada, and some other European countries due to the singularity of ethnicity in China. More than 90% of the people in China are Han Chinese. Making it less tolerant and welcoming toward immigrants, especially when the purpose of immigration is to seek job opportunities, which will hurt the locals. Fourth, although China's growth in the economy is undoubtedly exceptional in the past 40 years, the personal wealth in China is still far less than that in developed countries. Making the stakes in working in China isn't as good as working in another country, especially for the professional workers who have more choice to work in different countries. Also, even if China is going to have fewer young people gradually. It is still very competitive in terms of job opportunities in China compare to some other countries. Fifth, and I think the most important one is the system; China is still under the rules of a very authoritarian and oppressive regime. Making the foreign workers have less security than other developed countries, especially those who move out of their native country because of political suppression. In conclusion, I don't think there will be mass immigration to China shortly. Still, everything might change in the future. However, China’s policies are mainly focused on the development of decades. I don't see a major change in China’s policy that will significantly boost immigration to China. Thus, making the challenge of demographic more unsolvable than other challenges in China.
Ironic how they only propagandize China having all these social problems yet most other countries have worse crime, development, and growth already despite all their supposed gender balance and yOuTh dEmOgRaPhIcS.
@@tritium1998 being incompetent doesn't mean you cannot criticize other incompetent people. We should all learn to receive criticism so that we can improve and grow.
Well, the calculations are based on monogamy, otherwise, one man, or one woman can have multiple offspring with multiple partners, making their number contribution to the older generation less than one. Humans aren't really monogamous, so it's not a realistic calculation.
It's already happening in America where ~85 percent of men are not sexually active. Our birth rate is pretty low as a consequence, though not as low as Europe's.
I don't know why but this made me imagine some Japanese politician standing at a podium giving a speech about the declining birthrate. In the middle of a sentence he shakes the papers on the podium and screams "Why won't you **** more?!?"
Actually in initial years people didn't follow so the CCP came with harsher policies like imprisonment. This scared people and hence strictly limited to 1 child. The sad thing is, they are scared even today.
Let's just force everyone to only have one child in a country where there is a massive preference towards having a son over a daughter, what could go wrong?
It’s easy to criticize the policy for all its flaws now, but it did dramatically reduce China’s outrageous population growth. My grandparents and great-grandparents had anywhere from 5 to 11 children per household because of old cultural norms and lack of knowledge on contraceptions. That is simply unsustainable as land, food, and other resources are finite. Fast forward to today, the TFR in many African countries are above 5 due to the same reasons I mentioned. And what did they get in return? Being the poorest continent? Having the highest rate of poverty and starvation? High TFR is obviously not the only reason, but it’s a significant one nonetheless. While I acknowledge China’s one-child policy was far from perfect, I would take gender imbalance over starving children any day. Moreover, the preference for boys is not unique to China. It’s simply an old-school and sexist view on gender that exists in nearly every civilization. With time, however, attitudes shift as people become educated. This preference for boys is definitely decreasing in China as parents become more educated and progressive.
@@edwink1467 Men are seen as workers and more important industrially. Women are seen as cooks and homeworkers, more important for making men. Yeah its ch
@@finish_my_projects No he's not. No one should jump to that conclusion based on what he wrote (unless that's all you care about). He's simply pointing out how, at the time, such a policy was seen as necessary given how out-of-control China's population growth had become and how it did, in a way, do its job by slowing that growth down. Obviously, it's perfectly fair to ask "yeah, but" and "at what cost," but it's too easy to overlook why it took effect in the first place.
That's a shame, because your country has so much untapped potential. If the US can get its immigration policy simplified and streamlined, I hope more Nigerians consider immigrating here.
I don't know where he got Nigeria pyramid from. All internet results show extremely wide base of age pyramid and recent statistics paper projects higher Nigeria population than China in the future.
As someone born in China, I've been observing, learning about, and thinking about this problem for quite a while. At the end of the day, a shrinking workforce seems to be less of a problem to China than the burden of taking care of the incoming wave of retirees. When it comes to workforce, many people overlook the reality that much of China's population is still tied to low productivity agriculture. Urbanization rate in China is about 60% compared to that of 80%+ in the US. It's a reserve of workforce that can be unleashed with further adaption of industrialized farming and poverty alleviation efforts. That combined with automation and better educated workers means China has more workforce to give. But the large number of incoming retirees is not something the country can avoid. I would not be surprised if some sort of sacrifice will be demanded of these retirees in the coming years.
@@trackingthecoreofstuffandm2310 easy, they tax the shit out of companies using mass automation and then redistribute the wealth to citizens in the form of a universal income. They’re an authoritarian communist government. They can do things like that.
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS trump isn't president anymore and if anything boomers were his support base so why would he want to reduce the amount of potential voters supporting him?
@PW - 10ZZ 917528 The Woodlands SS so it was trump not governors like como who put elderly at risk by putting covid patients into th nursing homes. So trump is responsible for 15,000 deaths cause como said to put them in nursing homes. While trump provided the virtually unused javit center, or navy medical ship that was less the 20% full?
@@fernandomaluenda4226 Edward Dutton would explain it better as he will go where these mild takes refuse to go. The finger pointing at china misses the point, they can recover as they haven't made the mistakes the west has yet, gorilla glue girl and saint floyd have 11 children between them, the wests fertility rate isn't better in any way, its far far worse in the saddest way possible.
@@churblefurbles Interesting. I'll have to look into Edward Dutton. Thanks for the reference. How could China recover from an aging population? What kind of mistakes regarding an aging population has the west made that China hasn't yet? I see Edward Dutton has a lot of videos to check out. If you are referencing a particular video I'd love to see it if you have the link :)
@@fernandomaluenda4226 As generations pass opportunities open up, shortage of workers creates better conditions as seen after the black plague when peasants gained power against the nobility. This only works under a closed and cohesive system, not a system under endless invasion, disrupted pandas don't breed. Some traditional values remain in china, filial piety not endless individualism, the leadership are practically minded, and believe in the welfare of their own citizens unlike ours who believe in misplaced guilt based original sin, a distorted legacy having shed christianity. As for his videos, Its mostly evolutionary psychology and examining modern selection pressures, I don't remember an exact one, but there are more of his videos on bitchute than youtube because of censorship, on here you can only promote the wrong things.
@@animewatch4213 No I actually follow channels like Laowhy86 and SerpentZA. But often the average world politics, geography and economics channels will boast how good China is supposedly doing.
@Pajeet Patel There's the fact that China is doing well in many areas and then there's what many news articles and youtubers say which is often overblown like "Xi Jinping will practically rule the world by 2030"
5:45 detailed demographics 9:00 projections of demography 10:30 pre and post industrialization 13:00 Demography in Chinas future 14:20 population/Chinese vs WisconsinMaddison Uni claims its 1.18 15:30 high skill jobs and less manufacturing 17:50 lowest birth rate in recent memory 18:20 demography in Japan 20:00 it’s similar in America and although the guys analysis its locked behind nebula, I assume the US suffers less from demographics due to high immigration providing labor
The main difference is that the US is going to shed a lot of its aging population soon, had several hundred thousand immigrants in a year versus chinas singular thousand, and even still the birthrate is somehow higher in the US (even if you go by the questionable official rate from China). Plus the US has been supporting significant aging populations for a while already, we aren't going to be hit as hard as this spike continues. The USA is literally going through this right now, Babyboomers have become a massive burden on the economy but the US only has to hold out for another 10 or so years before they start fading significantly. The US will then have 30+ years before the next spike starting ramping up. Something that both countries are starting to experience at the moment though is male skewed births. Every demographic under the age of 38 has an increasingly significant male bias. This is about to bite many countries in the ass hard, as we can already see by the rising incel movement.
@@Outwardpd Yep, high immigration+extreme outsourcing of manufacturing and Chinas reliance on their manufacturing centres make the US suffer less from demographic changes. It does seem China is going to outsource manufacturing to Africa and South East Asia much more in the future so perhaps the demographic effects will be less damaging than we think.
@Ksthy Simmons the answer to that is absolutely NO GOVERNMENT steps in and aids children in need unless they themselves are predatory & have a use for those children. my view point is that the african countries that caved-in to china’s request for their children, should have simply said “no”.
@Ksthy Simmons What are you talking about? Who colonized Africa for hundreds of years? 90% of African territory was independent until 1870s and European empires started collapsing by 1945. Until then Europeans only dotted the coastline with ports here and there (with a notable exception of South Africa). Incidentally, Africa spent least time being colonized among all continents (except Europe - if you dont count Europeans conquering each other as an equivalent act). In fact, modern African states are now independent about as long as the time they spent as colonies. The European involvment in African slave trade (Atlantic triangle) did last for hundreds of years though, so you maybe mixed those two things up. European involvment in African slave trade essentially began for two reasons: 1) Ottomans, trough conquest, monopolized the Black Sea slave trade, which used to be Genoan business. 2) Discovery of Americas and native population dying due to smallpox The American countries on the other hand, will have to be independent for another 100 years to be independent for the same amount of time as they were colonized.
There is a more crucial problem: with falling fertility rates, Jonathan Swift's restaurants will need to increase prices due to falling supply. This could have serious consequences for the fine dining industry
Hey fine dining can suck it. As long as the take out places are open I’m ok. Plus, gives people motivation to become better cooks on their own. Fine dining is for snobs
Dang that’s kind of depressing to think about too. In a video game you can repeat and try to do better, but irl once you miss the window, you miss the only chance in life. Then your body decays and you die.
This happened 5th time in this month. Some one quoted a portion of the video and while I was reading it I heard the same thing on the video. Is anyone else experiencing this dejavu?
@@e7venjedi I'm in my early 20's and it seems that I've graduated at such inconvenient times. Idk what I'm doing lol. At this point, idk actually what's worth doing
Very well analysed. I am Chinese and used to think the rise of China to the top was unstoppable. Now I see only a window of opportunity from now to 2030. If China cannot be No.1 then, it is likely that she would have lost that opportunity forever.
Honestly I think it’s inevitable that China will gain hegemony over the eastern hemisphere, but whether they remain the number two or become the number one super power remains to be seen. I think the US will maintain hegemony over the Western Hemisphere, at the very least North America and Western Europe will remain in the USA’s sphere of influence.
@@JollyOldCanuck idk dude, i would say that probable if they had India on their side. China has pissed of a lot of it's neighbor's including Vietnam, India, Japan, Taiwan and even Russia.
it's too bad the countries of the world care more about being 1st than being better than they were yesterday. There's so much we could do besides a space race/nuclear arms race/aircraft carrier race...
To me China has reached the limits of it's system. Now that Xi, having made himself president for life, a charlaton has taken over and increases government intrusion in people's lives China's sucesses arein jeopardy. If Dengs model had been followed things would be different.
Peter Zeihan makes an analysis & commentary on why China will never become a global superpower it so badly craves. Demographic collapse, dependence on natural resources & commodities from non-friendly/hostile countries, potential economic collapse (housing and credit crunch) and weak military (esp. navy).
@P Ciprian yes, also propaganda. In Europe in school they teach you that it's bad have children because imaginery "bad" climate change. Lack knowledge and common sense is alarming in Europe right now.
@@fraided88 Hey, CFS levels are falling fast here in the States too. Common Fucking Sense is becoming a dusty museum piece, only quietly discussed as ancient lore and mythology.
A second point I want to add is due to the high cost of raising children, a lot of people are reluctant to have children. That’s why relaxing the policy to 2 children per family is not having much effect. China needs to improve its severe inequality in resources distribution and provide better support for child care to be able to start turning the problem around. But both of those issues will also take years to solve. If inequality is not addressed and welfare cannot improve, we might have a nation with a dwindling young population who in turn is having even less children per household than the previous generation.
In short, free market capitalism fucks over countries like Marx realized because eith consolidates all the wealth in the hands of a greedy few who now can’t sustain their lifestyles as nobody will continue to want to be exploited
Not to mention that valuing men over women also compounds that problem. If your society values families with few children and likes boys more than girls then you're gonna have a generation of incels.
China still have a lot of farmers. They don't retire and just working on their land till death. It is a important aspect that you dont consider.（400 million people in China do not have pension insurance because they are not worker）.For me my grandfather is 80 years old and still farming on his land. My dad is a worker and the real problem will come at the time when my dad’ generation retire and it is about 10 years later.
Also,as people get old and retire....there will be less consumers ...that’s bad for the nation economy including the government...they will lose a lot money from consumers tax and business taxes
They’re old on the farms, but they work until they drop, since Junior has run off to the city, so there is some productivity value squeezed out of the unfortunate rural aged. And they are already used to a bowl of rice a day and crappy (cheap) health care.
About 25 % of the Chinese workforce work in agriculture vs. maybe 2 % in Germany. That’s a lot of potential for people to work in other areas, especially when you consider that China is advancing rapidly in technology.
@@Theturtleowl the school of life generally does teach one resistance to poor decisions. The decades in which one collects such a database is empirical knowledge: based on, concerned with, or verifiable by observation or experience rather than theory or pure logic. Your grandmother found interactions with certain persons distasteful and the strategy she developed was essentially hello followed by continuing on her way. I employed another form of declining to engage with the jerk that made the previous comment: jerks are best dealt with by ignoring them completely.
Another empirical conclusion based on decades of observations: haters spew hatred because they themselves recognize their own failures and failings but because they are haters they blame others rather than take responsibility for their own shortcomings. Socialism and communism originate from that same poisonous well of hatred for everyone that proves wiser than themselves.
@@curtislowe4577 Man can you be my grandparent? Jk just kidding. God I love talking to wise people. All my grandparents do is to b*tch on one another. I crave to listen to wise and intelligent people.
This analysis could work for Japan, where you have all of the population integrated into the modern economy. But China is different, China still has a massive population of poor people in the countryside. Their situation now is rather unique because of their scale, and those internal differences. Japan only stopped growing when it caught up to the west economically, if something similar happens to China they'll be much bigger in absolute terms just because of their scale...
@@dirremoire I'm sorry, I didn't mean to say they are miserable in rural China. Just saying they don't need external immigrants to replace population growth in urban China since they can still count on internal migration from their countryside for a few more decades at least.
@@dirremoire Rural China isn't doing well at all. While China is bragging about eliminating extreme poverty, they are using numbers that very poor countries use (some of the poorest in the world). To make this claim, the Chinese government uses a poverty line of about $2.25 a day, in 2011 prices and adjusting for purchasing power. The World Bank believes that a threshold of $1.90 a day is appropriate for countries with per capita incomes of less than $1,000 or so, such as Ethiopia. For lower-middle-income countries such as India-with per capita incomes between $1,000 and about $4,000-it recommends a poverty line of $3.20 a day. For upper-middle-income countries like China, it reckons that a reasonable poverty line is $5.50 a day. In other words, the Chinese government uses a poverty line appropriate for a country making the transition from low- to lower-middle-income, even though China is 10 times as wealthy. www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/01/25/deep-sixing-poverty-in-china/
If China caught up well developed country gdp per capital as Japan, It will be 4 times size economic of US. It depends future technologies, we might not need as many ppls as usual.
What are your thoughts on the emerging crisis in China (mortgage payment strikes and systemic risk from fractional-reserve banking) and it's likely impact on emerging markets?
In a word scary. Because ultimately the global market is so interlinked and the world has been decoupling from China. This creates massive economic stress and a scenario no model or econometric analysis would have predicted.
@@sebastianspiegler5801 Great question, I think it's a really interesting area and so many factors in play right now. I wouldn't let any macro news affect the way I invest at all, otherwise you'd probably never invest a single penny - but that being said, it's a reminder to be well diversified!
@@sebastianspiegler5801 There is only bad news out there but yet stock prices are up which shows that even though the market is meant to be forward looking it is clear the string results are the only things they are interested in. some bad market news will come out and the bear will return. But then again who knows, we could all be riding that bull "to the moon"
@Chloe Baker The stock market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings! I searchon Katherine using her full name and found her reachout-page, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her
Cool ! I'm 60 and worn out from working all my life. Had a great life and it won't be long before I'm ready for "The big dirt nap !" Best of luck to the new generations coming because I'm sure technology will see a bright and happy future for everyone.... Meanwhile.....take care everyone !!
I have a different view. I have lived at the pinnacle period of human achievement. Its going to be all downhill for centuries to come, until everything is reduced to barbarism and begins again. Life today is heinous compared to what it was 20 or 30 years ago, its getting worse very fast...and technology is the reason. The only thing I will miss if I died today is the schadenfreude I would draw from seeing everything collapse.
@@charliepearce8767 Why are the Mad Max, Terminator and Snake Plisskin movies among the most popular ever? Did the 100 million killed in ww2 "want it to"...you live in a rose tinted world I fear.
@@alexspareone3872 High school musical was pretty popular too but I don't see people looking at that going "Yup, sign of the times, people are gonna start randomly bursting out into song and dance." There are countless times in history where people thought they were at the peak but were proven wrong over and over. Sure, one day someone will adopt your bleak view and be right but it'll be by chance rather than any great vision. I get it, having a dreary view of the world means you can say "I told you so" if it does turn bad and never get your hopes up, exposing yourself to the disappointment. You miss out on a lot of life that way though. I hope that, as you grow up, you'll realise its better to hope and try for more than to give in and let your life fall into a darkness of your own creation.
Some perspective: most Chinese youths (35 and under) are actually seeing the shrinking birthrate as a great sign of hope. The country is moving past the stage of labor intensive industrialization, but much of its corporate world is still stuck in the old mind set of relying on plenty supply of cheap and quality labor, resulting in long working hours, toxic work place culture, and other exploitative practices. The corporations' assumption is that "if you don't do it, there are plenty of others who are qualified to take your place". In some way it is quite similar to early 20th century US prior to the labor movement. Given how labor movement is not really an option in China, the younger generation is taking a more obvious route: having fewer kids or no kids at all, so that the corporation will be eventually forced to treat all their employees better when they dont have many to choose from. In some sense this is already working. A fun saying on the Chinese internet: "population dividend means the population is the dividend, not dividend for the population".
As a beekeeper I confirm that if you don't have bees in all stages ( eggs , larvae , capped brood ) no matter if you have 60000 bees in one colony this will collapse very fast during one generation and you realise you have 5000 bees
China, for most of my life (50 years), has had a one child policy, and I wondered how that would play out eventually. This is a very interesting video. Very interesting. Thank you.
1 child was a temporary policy for the big cities to prevent births of poor people since rich people could pay a fine to have children in the big cities, in rural areas you could have 3 children and smaller cities 2.
As someone who was born and raised in China, I can say that the trend of aging population will likely continue in China if the gov doesn’t intervene. There’s been a significant shift in attitude toward marriage and child-bearing amongst young women since the implementation of the one-child policy, with more and more young women gravitating towards higher education, careers and self-fulfillment, many are feeling reluctant to get married and have children as early as their parents did, citing work stress, the high cost of raising children and a general lack of interest in family/domestic duty. The fertility rate will continue to drop - that is if the gov doesn’t intervene. But given what we know about the Chinese gov - they likely will. After all, in the 50s/60s Mao did heavily promote large families size & condemn/outlaw abortion and contraceptives - which led to the population explosion hence why China needed the one-child policy in the first place. It’s sad to think one day these educated and empowered young women might be forced/brainwashed to become baby making machines.
It only makes sense, it is what happened in the rest of the world without the one child policy. This is probably going to be a large challenge for China in the future
@@pepega7015 Why do you care if people are getting more feminine traits? I’m pretty sure a Pepe the frog profile pic isn’t the greatest indicator of masculinity
One more problem: Chinas loss in absolute numbers is so huge, it cannot be countered by selective immigration, unlike in Europe, Canada, Australia, etc
@CK H that’s more to do with the culture of China being an ethnocentric society. Very few Han Chinese want to see more foreigners in their society so the government couldn’t open up even if it wanted to as we can see in democratic japan where the public don’t want large immigration even with a shrinking population so the government doesn’t do it
My son was in Hong Kong. He dated a 25 yr old single woman. A survivor of the 1 child policy. They going to get married. But she had to take care of elderly grandma. There was one else. Many of these single woman are career oriented. That 14,000,000 birth rate calculates out to .01%, Normal birth is about .04 - .05% about 1/4 normal replacement. But most industrial countries are self destructing..
This is why immigration is increasingly important for sustaining a country. It allows the host to pick out those motivated enough to adapt, with those who don't make the cut either getting ejected or departing on their own (a labor flexibility not so easy to perform with citizens). Likely we'll see Old World ethnostates like NE Asia failing to find a second wind, and more openly adoptive competitors eventually passing them in the longer marathon of generations.
@@doujinflip “let’s completely ignore the core reason for the issue (1st world country economic aspects) and try to fix it by importing people from completely different cultural backgrounds who will in the long term only serve to destroy local autochrome demographics and one’s core national identity”
Not really a survivor, plenty of my relatives had more than one child, you just need to pay fines for it, and I'm pretty sure that access to insurance may be less, but after all most families are more than happy to make that contribution for an extra child. Also, the fine is nothing dramatic, if you have a job you can handle it.
@@salomez-finnegan7952 but mate, immigrants are all doctors and don't get old or use resources themselves. It's not like we could just invest in better technology. You must be waycist.
As someone born in China I'll say this is actually common knowledge for Chinese people, especially the ones from poorer regions which have been losing people at an ever increasing rate. But a lot of people don't realize or understand how bad this problem can become yet.
Heyyy I made a video on the same topic a while back. While one child policy has certainly played a role, the industrialization and development of China is the major factor responsible for this. The increased cost of living and working parents are some of the factors which force parents to have lesser and lesser children
Honestly Chinese birth rates are said to be extreme by people but in actual fact they are better than Japan, Germany or South Korea. This idea that China is in a uniquely bad position is quite inaccurate.
I don't think it was claimed it was uniquely bad. But at least for Germany and other similar western countries, they have more immigration to compensate. That's why the us is predicted to grow at a faster rate than China in the next century
One thing that videos about ageing populations always fail to mention is the increase in automation. We're always being told how millions of low skilled manufacturing jobs and service jobs are about to disappear forever, which would mean less demand for labour. I'm not saying this will fix all demographic issues but I would like to see it factored into the analysis as it would probably make a big difference to the conclusion.
Biggest issue with automation is that robots aren’t consumers. If you have millions of low-skilled workers, they all need housing, food, transportation and drive up GDP. Replacing it with robots is increasing GDP for the factory owner, but less so for housing, retail, agriculture and car manufacturers.
@@LaidbackLuc9 If there is any country that will be able to deal with wealth redistribution from automation, that is China. You should worry more about your country when millions of poor third worlders lose their jobs and start to get restless...
@@enterchannelnamehere2922 Why? China hasn't coped with wealth distribution in its modern history, mostly because the cake grew bigger so it wasn't that much of an issue how the slices were shared. But it's not just old age pensioners who have certain lifestyle expectations, it's single children, born under the 1 child policy, with good grades and solid education who also be hurt by automation if they assume that China will easily go from industrial powerhouse to services country in one generation. My country may also face some adversity from automation, but is spending ~10k USD per inhabitant on social security. In China, it's more like $ 0,3k USD per inhabitant per annum on social security. This will ramp up even regardless of any job losses due to automation.
@@Emperorick2 i highly doubt that is feasible within this century, maybe even later or ever. Human biology is far too complex and rigid to get people to rejuvenate back to youth.
Encouraging large families, outlaw/condemn abortion and contraceptive...this was exactly what Mao did in the 50s which led to the population explosion and why China needed the one child policy in the first place. So sad to see history repeats itself
Chinese program of artificial womb babies. It is coming. China will be the leader of artificial womb technology. Raised by the state to be perfect citizens.
Most of this I was already aware of. The CCP has maybe a twenty year window to do what it wants, then countervailing forces weigh it down. This is one of the key things driving CCP policy. An excellent post, thank you.
I doubt it, the population pyramid for China in 2000s was in a similar shape to the current model and in those years they have massively flourished. That is all without counting for the increased automation, Belt and Road initiative, and the revert back to the 2 child policy.
@@tomjing8921 Of course, you're factually wrong. As so many people have pointed out before, China is going to get old before it gets rich. China hasn't avoided the middle income trap, in other words. This was brought up in the video, by the way. Ecological and environmental issues weren't addressed to speak of, in this video. China is squandering a lot of cheap and easy cash now that it will need later. But let's take your point of view further, let's talk about AI. China is literally banking on reaching the Singularity before any other country, but even assuming it does it may still not work out for China. Are you in the pay of the CCP? Edit: An afterthought, you also forget the sex ratio, which this video mentioned, three men for two women is a serious limit on the number of children that can be born. You COULD argue women should or could have more children, but it's highly unlikely given modern trends and history. The number of women is key. More women, more babies.
oh. my. god. That one friend from elementary school was right! (i grew up in China) He said to me one day: "the nation is gonna die some day, think about it, it takes 2 people to have a child, and they have one, the population will die pretty quickly" this is pretty heavy for me, I don't wanna watch my home country die
Oh it won’t die. I mean if you want to talk historically China has been “dying” and rising from the ashes for... hundreds of years. There is even the whole joke about “China was whole again, then it broke again.” Point is large superpowers like China have a way of sticking around through what appear to be far more world ending situations than this. It’s obviously going to have problems. But it isn’t doomed
@@garrisonlee380 Yeah. It’s quite hard for the first modern state and the oldest living civilisation to just fall over after thousands of years of recorded history. China’s experienced some of the biggest calamities in World history. They can take a few hits.
A lot of your fertile women also leave to other countries, leaving the men behind to... Well, I don't know what. Probably will manufacture some virus to kill off a lot of elderly (coronavirus) and manufacture some war to kill off the younger men (writing is on the wall). CCP is vile
@@jimcherry685 an estimate of the remaining fuel left in our Sun before it goes Red Giant class and the inner pressure of explosions expands it's surface, thus crisping Mercury and making life a beach on Earth. Least that's what I recall learning in school
I think one very important aspect, that you scratched, but not really mentioned is that most of the economic revenue isn't produced by the 1.3 billion chinese, but more by like 300 million living mainly in the east of china. So the impact of a smaller population or earning-class isn't that hard hitting, because there are still enough people to fill in the gap.
That’s actually what I was thinking throughout the video. The Chinese government should be able to use this as an opportunity to transition the majority poor population into middle class jobs as the population decreases. They could stabilise the population growth and bring the average value of Chinese citizens up.
That is absolutely true, but first off: jobs are starting to move away from China to places like Vietnam. Second, the fertility decline is ALSO affecting rural peasants. So even though they will subsidize the remaining manufacturing jobs, that just kicks the can down the road until the remaining 1.1 billion people evaporate from the the demographic collapse.
@@Zei33 Also, the number of jobs isn't increasing to compensate new rural peasants moving into the east. So while there will be a steady stream of rural immigrants, that is economic stagnation; not growth.
@@guacre2675 at the size China is, stagnation is really not a problem. It’s like paying off a loan. You have a big amount of money suddenly, but your worth stabilises once you buy the house. You then spend 20-30 years paying off the loan before you start to increase your net worth more dramatically. China will reduce its population while keeping its economy steady. Then once they’re able to stabilise the population for a number of years, they can once again start working on economic growth in place of population growth.
@@Zei33 I think polymatter explains in the video that population growth is how nations grow their GDP. Developed countries (minus Japan) have small population growth, so their economies grow slowly. China after Mao had a rapid population growth, so it had a rapid economic growth. China's and Japan's economies are doomed, which is what the video is about.
17:44 Very true. Humans SUCK at solving long term, relatively invisible problems. Jakarta's sinking issue comes to mind. Vox did a pretty good video on it.
As an American immigrant, I really wish you had included the nebula bonus section in this version. Far too often are my people vilified for coming to this country, and the people that do that don’t realize how important immigration is to the USAs success.
@@meneither3834 He talks about that in the extended Nebula section. American immigrants assimilate very very well and much better than immigrants to China. The culture of the American dream is very strong, and almost all immigrants come here to experience that culture rather than attempt to turn the US into their homeland. Otherwise why come at all.
@@MegaDman34 it's more than that. Immigrants don't "assimilate well" in America. It's that America is a multicultural nation that accepts that you can be both American& something else (it doesn't work 100% of the time but relative to the rest of the world it's pretty good.) Countries with an established single dominant culture like in Europe or China can't integrate immigrants as easily. And I'm not sure why but east Asian countries (China, Kora, Japan ) are even worse than the monocultural countries west of them.
@@meneither3834 Yeah I get what your point is. The end result is still the same, immigrants assimilate well in America. What factors contribute the most to that are up for debate, but I agree with everything you mentioned above.
@@MegaDman34 "the end result is still the same" Well yeah but as a European I'm interested in how we can take inspiration from the American system without crushing local cultures.
We hear about climate change all the time. Large scale demographic collapse is almost never discussed and is often subtly viewed as a good thing by environmentalists who view humanity as a plague upon the earth
I have absolutely heard this viewpoint espoused by the more vocal.enviromental / vegan activists. Go on any video where a solution is proposed on how to exterminate or control and invasive species and you will inevitably see crybaby activist screeching about how humans are the "real" invasive species and how come we aren't killing them look at any video of Australia's feral cats or Florida's invasive lionfish....
With the greatest respect, that is untrue. The first person in the West to worry about Population growth was a clergyman named Malthus, and that was in the 19th century. Although his thesis has been debunked thoroughly, it is right wingers who worry about useless eaters and/or the Great Replacement. Sadly, the world produces enough food but much of it is wasted, and mostly in developed, industrialised countries. The Irony is that it is capitalism that mostly surpresses birth rates, for the very reasons outlined in this video. The pill was only invented in the mid 1970s because capital wanted to quickly and cheaply increase their workforce . By not having so many children, women could work outside the home. And the tendency has been to encourage women to work. After all, poor women have always had to work, often in and outside the home. And of course, as soon as that was done, overall wage growth has been surpressed. If the developed nations really cared about the family, they would provide everything needed for families to have children, and would promote social expectations that supported the family and children. But when the elites see everyone but themselves as either useful eaters or useless eaters, and treated them as such, they shouldn't be surprised that the demographic crisis is happening. Their priorities are just foolish, in that invariably it is flag-waving Nationalists, who are eroding their nations out of greed by their policies, and provoking even more insecurities in their followers to ensure they reap the power and wealth they desire. And those nations often promote racist views, but rely on migrant labour. No-one is immune from folly. It just takes the right circumstances, and we have a lot of wealthy fools, whose descendants may have to eat their gold in the long run, because of the mistakes their forebears made.
If our population dropped significantly then climate change would be solved just by virtue of a reduction in CO2 emissions. The demographic pyramid just adds an extra layer of complexity to it.
When showing the "unrealistic" extremes, it exposes the "reality" of history in the US. Baby boom, which spawned the child care industry. This was followed by the Production boom, which largely contributed to low reproduction rates. All of which now leaves us currently in the Senior boom, where many can't leave the work force, and opportunities continue to shrink for the new Producers and Babies.
@@fitrianhidayat Doesn't help in this context. Due to the babies themselves being 50% almost, or near enough, of each sex. Even if you had one male who had all their sperm separated and impregnating 100% of the Chinese population (ignoring the massive incest health problems this would cause in a generation atm), you couldn't raise the actual rate of growth above the ratio of the simple 1 to 1 man and women, due to the actual increase being restricted only on the supply of women, and you can't just flip a switch and make that random chance skew to give you mostly women to be divided by more men. It's not how those genes work.
China at least has a massive economy and a skilled population to deal with this, India is also running on a ticking clock, if we dont get our shit together gets busy with religious conflicts all the time without any focus on economic growth then we will end up in a situation even worse then china, but with an even larger population than china.
From what I've read, it looks like India has 10-20 more years to handle their own demographic crisis. Perhaps seeing the early days of what's about to happen in China will help inspire India to sort themselves out? There has to be some positive in having a bit more time to reckon with the issue.
India is a bit further down the line of massive demographic change. India has few benefits regarding their limit of growth, like a population that is multicultural, a better understanding of the outside world and a good level of English. secondly will be the much higher creativity level which I like many others will thank democracy/liberty/freedom of expression and thought. India's biggest problem is the "brain drain" the dream of any successful Indian to alleviate his opportunities in the west, opposing china's patriotism, plus factoring in the language and culture barrier that keeps them in china.
@@runningfromabear8354 But also need to consider the difference of government capabilities. China for one is far more organized and has more control over everything. Similarly that's how China could pull off something like one child policy, so whatever future solutions China have, may not apply to India due to circumstances.
Uhh what? Last I checked India has a strong young population. They have a pretty decent population distribution which if utilized could cause explosive growth. India's problems are mainly at this point political. If they can fix this they'll grow much better than China will.
Those families abroad who adopted the unwanted Chinese girls should get medals. All of those reports and documentaries from the 90s about what happened to the unwanted baby girls that didn't get adopted where horrific
Great video. I’ve been following the world’s demographic slowdown for more than 20 years, it’s always amazing how the vast majority think we have nothing but a population explosion, 40 years after that ceased to be the real problem.
It's odd how environmentalists love to say "there's too many humans, so you are morally obligated to have no more than 1 kid!" But if you look at demographic predictions most of the world will experience an aging population followed by a drastic drop in numbers. We need more humans so we don't fuck our economy 2-3 decades from now.
China is also very strict on immigration since it would bring different values and cultures, which could challenge the government. So, they would not be able to replace the population with immigrants.
Actually the average Chinese is against immigration, seeing how bad Europe handled it in the past decades and the difficulty Guangzhou is facing with immigrants.
@@lijiayi0921 of course they’re against immigration. Any country that has never had immigration is against it. People who haven’t been exposed to immigrants are only going to fear them.
Actually, the Chinese government tried to pass a law for easing up the immigration process in March 2020, but when the general public found out there was a massive xenophobic backlash with some people even calling to murder involved top officials on Weibo, Baidu Tieba and other websites. Eventually though they will have no choice but to welcome more immigrants. Automation doesn't work for most things with existing and foreseeable technology, just ask Japan that after trying automation for decades is now readying to welcome 200k immigrants per years from 2023 onwards. There's only two choices, immigration or a long slow and painful way back into poverty.
@@The_Tifa_Lockhart Japan's situation is more a case of declining population, the average incomes in japan are very comfortably high and are continuing to grow but from the outside the economy as a whole looks stagnant or shrinking. Market forces from a shrinking workforce will cause a huge surge in investment in automation to make up for the problem. There has never been a situation where a shrinking workforce caused wages to Shrink. that'd break the laws of supply and demand.
One of their scientists has already made a crisper baby and told the world. No one has heard of him since, World health society deemed his work unethical. Make genetically altered babies no mother or father . The future is somewhere in China.?
@@mikechisum1297 cloning super industrious babies actually can save population problem. I refuse to believe China government is not planning on that. efficiency first, morality and people's sensitive feelings come last
@@mikechisum1297 From what i can tell, the tech was at its infancy and it is way too risky to put into practise just yet. In other words, he willingly put the lives of his test subjects and embryos in danger for his experiment, which in all accounts is very unethical. Hence, the international outcry and China had to do something about it. No follow up to the babies born from the tech to see if it was a success or not. I applaud this man both for his lunacy and confidence.
Worse. Women get used to it. How do you think that powerful women like having to give birth to bowling balls repeatedly? In Europe and among White Americans, the birth rate is around 1.7 per woman, but USA is better at handling immigration (or at least used to be), so that means the population is still increasing.
@@Egilhelmson I think he did mention that once this problem surfaces, it's hard to reverse course short of a massive collapse of the current order. However the more traditionalist don't buy into the modernity trap (at least no where to the extent of more liberal individuals), they're probably the ones who are keeping that average from sinking lower. It's kinda like natural selection at work (ironically). Nature seems to have a loathing for ideologies like Marxism for fucking with its work.
@@MWH12085 Das rite. Liberals will just die off soon enough while conservatives are actually breeding more children who will likely be conservatives toom
No, but they don’t need to do that. Practically speaking, The One Child Policy has already been repealed to several years now and the policy never fully applied to rural Chinese anyway.
@@luigicadorna8644 still, it's not something that can be reversed overnight. It could take generations to fix. "Several years" isn't enough, it takes 15-20 years for a baby to become a productive member of a society. And the real area is probably the only reason the fertility rate isn't lower.
