In this video Grandmaster Marc Olsen shows how to calculate the dice probabilities in Backgammon. Play for free at BackgammonGalaxy.com and get your Galaxy Rating today. Buy the "Earth Board": bit.ly/3vrAqYL
I memorized the number of rolls to hit for x number of pips away. There are only 12 hard numbers to memorize because something 13,14,17,19,21,21 & 23 pips away cannot be hit and something 15,16,18,20 & 24 pips away can only be hit 1 way. So then you only have to memorize 1 thru 12. When it gets more complicated I use the finger counting trick but always mess it up.
cant wait for Monday to have the earth board.... checking every minute the tracking information..... playing with my wife on monday, even she does not play backgammon so i can win the first 1
I like Art Benjamins explaination on WHY a direct shot without combinations leave 11 shots: There are five sides on each die that DOESN´T involve the number that hits. The likelyhood of NOT rolling the number is 5x5x=25 out of 36 (6x6). 36 minus 25 is 11 which equates to the direct shot.
I do not have a single mathematical/statistical molecule in my body. My face during this whole video was like 😐❓❓❓I’ll just rely on sheer dumb luck lol
Your success will b limited. Take two different colored dice to learn the probability of the 36 possible rolls.when there is a direct hit involved(1-6 pips away), the closer you are to your opponent's men, the lesser chance you have of being hit.When u have an indirect shot(more than 7 pips)the farther away the better.
Quick question on the last position. You play Green and White has left a shot 6 blots away. Would you double knowing that your board is full as it is on your video ?
No, because you are still an underdog. You will hit 17/36 times, and then you will be a 97% favorite. If you miss (19/36 times) your opponent will recube and you must pass.
When your checker is 2 pips away a direct shot is 11/36 to roll a 2 plus double 1s. That is what you said. But I have a question please? Wouldn't double 2s also hit making the chances 13/36 not 12/36? Thank you so much. Great vid.
No, it's 12/36 all non doubles count as 2 rolls. 61,51,41,31,21 (10 rolls) double count as one roll. 11,22(2 rolls) are the only doubles that hit. 10 + 2 = 12. 12/36.
I can see what your doing as it helps your strategy but I’m not good at maths and I think I would get moulded up , you seem to have a quick mind so you deserve to be a champion but for me doing the dice is confusing, perhaps later when I’ve played a bit😊
Расчет неверный, вероятность выподения конкретной цифры не 11/36, a 12/36. Вероятность выподения конкретной цифры на одном кубике 1/6, а на двух кубиках 1/6+1/6=1/3, т.е. 12 из 36 вариантов.
