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He is at least self-aware. He said it in his post. He is not tech savvy. Then he turns around and demonstrates his tech dumb in the next comment. At least he's giving fair warning. Perhaps what he meant to say was licensed from Tesla rather than copied? I mean, if you license it, you gain a copy for your own use. So technically he's correct.
Honestly Farley should fire 90% of staff, license FSD, license a BYD production line, and make BYDs with Ford's brands/styling/chassis tuning combined with FSD.
And many of the parts are made by one manufacturer or a number of manufacturers who all use the same production technology developed by one company which explains why all manufacturers adopt most new technologies in quick sucsession.
@@eclecticcyclist Sure but there also is crosslicensing between autos. The point of my post was that the other automanufacturers will copy Tesla. By licensing FSD. Gary is not getting that licensing is one way that this "copying" happens.
Yes, Gary... many other auto manufacturers will solve for autonomy shortly after Tesla, just as many other countries landed men on the moon shortly after the US did in 1969.
SpaceX reuses the same rockets multiple times saving millions. How long until other space programs copy that? The first reusable rocket launch was in 2017. SpaceX launches 80% of all material to orbit today. I am sure they will be copied shortly. But the question is, how long is shortly? 8 years? Is that shortly? After Tesla owns 80% of the consumer new car market another company will solve FSD?
As a lifelong DIYer, I can quickly see the fault in Blacks analysis. Back in the day, there used to be many DIY electronic hobbyist publications that would show how to copy various electronic stuff, even auto related, like wiper delay circuits back when that was the realm of very high end cars. Manufacturers tried to stop this practice at first by either grinding off part numbers or painting over them to stop what they felt was IP theft whether for copying or for any outside of manufacturer repair of failed units. The advent of ASIC (application specific integrated circuits) was the final straw that really crushed the DIY electronics hobby and led to the demise of the magazines. ASICs were strictly made for the manufacturer and not available in the aftermarket. While still possible, those devises made sussing out the function and replication of a black box part VERY difficult. Back when everything electronics was only an assembling of discrete components, with enough time you could determine what every part was and make your own version of the completed unit. Software defined parts soon took this issue to an even higher plane. While we knew what an EPROM was, figuring out what the implanted software was doing was extremely difficult and time consuming. Not much different than adding more numbers to a combination lock. Eventually you reach the point where the time involve solving makes the quest pointless. By the time (even IF) you were able to figure it out while trying to replicate, it was already obsolete and the world had moved on to the next big thing. This is exactly what will protect Tesla along with the fact that without the avalanche of data provided by a rapidly growing fleet will make it impossible for any other company to duplicate what Tesla has accomplished.
Look how long it took Tesla to get where they are with unlimited budgets, the best engineers, and led by a genius technical CEO. Ford will take 3 times longer or over 20 years to do the same thing. Even installing Tesla’s cameras, inference, and software in a Ford would take more than 2 years lol
@@BrunoHeggli-zp3nl yeah he can only talk for hours and hours about very technical rocket science then talk for hours and hours about very technical manufacturing so on and so forth about so many different aspects of all of his businesses he knows shit. His is definitely 100X smarter than the average person call that what you want some can call it genius
Gary Black. So in the semiconductor world are other companies just going to copy NVidia for the GPU AI industry? Because it’s so easy like adding windshield wipers to a car. 😂
2 years is the time it will take Ford to start integrating the appropriate camera equipment into their production. This is absolutely Tesla FSD licensing deal.
Damn, all those references to hands on or off wheels, eyes on road etc. has brought the Doors 'Roadhouse Blues' to mind. Though it will no doubt refer to GM and others rather than Ford - I hope. Now will be humming it all day long "Oh, keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel, Keep your eyes on the road, your hands upon the wheel, Yeah, we're going to the Roadhouse, Gonna have a real, A good time"
Exactly, because if you reason by analogy, all innovations are the same! A robot car and anti-lock brakes? Identical! The same way all car companies were rapidly able to update the software for all cars' functions over the air. It was easy, just ask Cariad!
We remember the pop we got from the supercharger partnership, now let’s imagine the move from the inevitable sequence of fsd partnerships with legacy. Up, very up. ⬆️
How long did it take from Ford's announcement of NACS to sole native use of the connectors (without an adapter) in the cars? Integrating Tesla's FSD hard- and software into (all?) Ford cars is many times harder, even more, if they want to develop their own one, without using Tesla's computing power...
@@markplott4820 While im no fan of legacy anything. it’s important for Tesla to get everyone using none standard they created as the other chargers are unreliable and would effectively slow the transition to electric vehicle adoption. Allowing partnerships has the effect of accelerating adoption over the long term. Legacy’s will still largely fail because they simply cannot compete.
@@heyitsanthony6366 - gm & FUD had Multiple DECADES to transition FULLY to BEV's and build OWN Charging Network. TESLA even offered access to its Superchargers back in 2012. let that sink in.
Mr. Black is not only non-technical, he ignores the massive computer clusters Tesla has (soon to also incorporate Tesla's DoJo), the world class on-board inference chip Tesla has, and the billion+ miles of eight camera driving data.
Agreed. It always bugs me when non technical people won’t even try to understand the bigger picture. They could even just look at where companies are spending research dollars
@user-dv1nz2dj7l Billions of miles not useful? You definitely have never seen the improvements. After years my car became capable of doing roundabouts with version 12.3. this year. That means I can now drive for hours without intervention. But I am aware of what it can not do. So I take it on those routes and take over at the last moment to add my drive to the database.
"all innovations in the auto industry are quickly copied...". A *PROFOUND* lack of understanding that copying an added gear in a transmission is not at all like copying FSD. Just. Wow.
It’s precisely at times like these that investors need to be on guard against the next certainty. You don’t have to act on every forecast. I will also suggest investors to get yourselves a financial-advisor that can provide you with entry and exit points on the shares/ETF you focus on.
VENTURING into the trading world without the help of a profesionals, trading and expecting profit is like turning water into wine you would need a miracle...
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!victoria flores
No doubt!! I never knew victoria flore had gone viral. I decided to back up my assets and property with her when we met at a conference in New Jersey🇺🇸 for the first time..
At the simplest level, other auto manufacturer are not scaling compute required for autonomy. There is no way they will have autonomy unless they license it. Why is this so hard to understand?
This seems like the worst period. Even the market are now very unpredictable. Started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today I am more than 60% down!.
Don’t be confuse buying the dip in a bear market, with guaranteed future returns. Just because that company is down 60%+ from ATH does NOT make it a sound long-term investment. Make sure you’re investing in great companies. kudos to Lorett Logan
Only God knows how much grateful i am. After so much struggles I now own a new house and my family is happy once again everything is finally falling into place!!loretta logan
"All car innovations in the auto industry are quickly copied". That's true: it only took 10 to 12 years for someone to start more or less reaching the level of the 2011 model S, but not quite yet for most of the industry. And for the OTA, they are nearly there, right? And for the rest of car software too, right? The or the integrated dashcam, that one was a real trickster, really hard to manage, so get them some slack. And it's not like AI is hundreds of times harder than any of these or all of them combined, right?
Regulators could make the requirement for eyes of the road like this "car company's need 1 intervention every 50.000 miles" a really low requirement that would make others launch a self driving feature at the same time.
I wonder if that picture of the Model 3 with the modified side camera placement (sticking out further) from a few months back could be related to this. Seems like you would want to test video capture from the new locations to run some FSD simulations. Just a thought about 2 random data points that could be related... or maybe it was for the robotaxi.
Wow. As you point out Tesla's "unassailable" data lead is very real but that is not all. Tesla has developed and is developing a vehicle operating system. There are always only a handful of primary operating systems in use at any given time. Windows & Mac, Android & IOS, etc. I believe that will be the same for cars (and other autonomous machines) in the near future. Only 2 or 3 in the world will make the software for the hardware. Licensing Tesla's software may help Ford survive but Tesla's revenue opportunity from software / autonomy is astronomical.
People drive in snow rain sleet. So fsd is the 80% rule. Even driving cross country there are times you run into rain. Snow and snow caped roads even more frequent. So that makes fsd good for 70%. So no taxis when it rains?
When FSD Ver 12.0... it would sometimes slow down then stop. No known reason. Documented heaps. Now FSD Ver 12.4.1... (latest greatest) sometimes slows down and then stops. No known reason ( and other tricks). Yeah, I have seen, it is truly amazing.
Has Gary ever set foot in a legacy automaker car plant ??! They are archaic!! Every piece of technology in a legacy automobile is manufactured and built and sold to the automakers. They don’t create anything beyond fashioning the newest and greatest steam engine.
The only thing i am unsure about is if Tesla will have the capacity to produce/license the hardware for the software to run. They will need every chip, computer etc... for their own needs.
Tesla supplying FSD software for legacy auto on some continent is plausible A company partnering to produce a systems integration like Tesla is also plausible GM had a partnership with Toyota in California. Ford had a partnership with Mazda in Dearborn, Michigan. Chrysler partnered with VW. Seems like a no-brainer to partner with the most advanced EV company, who also dominates the top American Made rankings.
If Ford can modernize its EV manufacturing plants to vastly improve efficiency: If Ford can find an EV battery supplier with much better energy density and If Ford can improve the efficiency of its EV drive units then maybe Ford will be able to produce a complexing EV worthy of FSD. Maybe...
You can see that even the generation that is managing money is out of touch with technology and will be disrupted by a new crop of more informed and up to date tech savvy money managers. Gary is part of the old group who thinks that once Sandy Cuts open a Tesla someone else will copy it . Tesla can sell the exact circuit boards to any company and it does not mean shit without the data and software 😆
Quickly copied! I think he meant to say quickly licensed. I think that would have been the correct statement. Did you model the licensing of FSD and RoboTaxi to happen so fast? I've been assuming it would happen but I thought there would be like a two to three year delay? Maybe not it would be awesome to have them all releasing almost the same time and for Tesla to be making all that extra money. They're not just going to be selling the software but the hardware too. Should be a nice fat profit 😁. Thank you
I said it a month or so ago when that Tesla appeared with cameras in a slightly different position. I believe it even more now that this was a test vehicle for another manufacturer to use FSD.
Great insight SMR. But why is Ford targeting Level 3 in 2 years when Tesla is all in for Level 5 CyberCab with no steering wheel or pedals? Does Farley not realize Tesla is about to disrupt themselves by selling rides instead of vehicles?
Lidar has actually more problems in heavy rain than pure vision, as the lasers return confusing 3D images back. I think this is a different tech than Tesla FSD what Farley is talking about. A very limited, Mercedes-like L3 tech. We'll see
I think some of these analysts are missing one key point. A patent is good for many years. Published software in the United States is automatically copyrighted under federal copyright law. Copying teslas tech is going to be very difficult for other companies
Sure the OEMs can copy Tesla, IF they have six million cars with sensors gathering data and 10s of billions of dollars worth of compute working on FSD. But they don't. You just can't fake it.
My bet is automakers are not going to use high definition mapping but low definition mapping. So they can say they have level 3 autonomous cars but it only activates on perfectly maintained interstates. And if it sees any flashing lights or reflectors it tells you to take over. For marketing they will look like they are competing with Tesla FSD. But they will not be.
You are making a major assumption. That is the offering by Ford will be equivalent to Tesla FSD. FSD works at night, in rain, in cities. Ford is offering a slight upgrade from their current Blue Cruise, on specific divided highways only in daylight and good weather. Tesla could offer that today but have much higher goals.
Possible. But this is about autonomus driving on highways. Ford already has hands free driving on highways. But i do belive Ford is very interested in 48v, 10BasedT1S and steer by wire.
The integration is just the hardware. Then implementing the software is just months. So the hardware could get implemented into ford vehicles over the next 2 years.
I think Farley is indicating they might be testing Tesla tech in Ford development cars. In which case integration has already started. Makes sense to plan it into new cars by interacting first now.
A lot of people think one electric car is like any other. And software is software. If you not dig into the topic you have no idea what is needed to get to autonomy. I talk a lot about Tesla and Elon with friends who have an opinion just from the mainstream media. So their opinion is mostly distorted or very superficial. I do my best to give them a better view on things. Most common is the „I don‘t like Elon“ opinion. My first reaction to that is always „Really?! I like him a lot.“ That’s where the discussion starts
elon bad is a big brain block for more than 1/2 the market to even be open minded to learning much less investigating EV/ FSD… I have had to define FSD to most people repeatedly without trying to make them feel STUPID for their disbelief…! Even with “i’m a good driver syndrome and I like to drive my etc Porsche etc ” from otherwise smart engineers and business people big enough investments in high five and low 6 figure ICE.. cars! ( “what’s an ICE car” bmw porsche audi noise and smoke owners especially that think … climate crisis is a leftist looney hoax! Trump if elected will have to have a real education and “come to Jesus” awareness meeting(s) with Elon ( maybe also Ford Hyundai maybe even BYD/ and China! ) … vs UAW and Mary B and Pete B! Do we want a Tesla stock boost ? That reset by Trump administration revising lots of his own campaign rhetoric / appointing Musk to an Energy / advisory seat will be a Major WS big boost moment! And if no one here is thinking much about this November’s election impact… being as important or more important than 8/8 … then one is too EV sales and all Auto INDUSTRY sales ASLEEP still! “It’s the economy STUPID” platform planks that still what wins or loses elections. ( and immigration this year. )
SMR: "i havent watched this video as i like to do things in real time'......hahahaha....rubbish..really had to scrape some bull together to make an episode here man
One thing that’s starting to feel certain that most people I know aren’t considering or aren’t even aware of the possibility is this concept of full self driving. Everyone is going to do it.
Yep, when FSD is a reality and people hear about and see people being passengers in their own self-driving cars, EVERYONE will follow witihn a few years. It's too gamechanging to not adopt the technology. The amount of time it frees up, the ability to drive to the city, have a night out with drinks, have the car come back and pick you up and drive you home is too good to pass up. And of course being able to work on the way to work while still using your own car, not to mention long drives to vacation sites and being able to just nap through it.
Good job Tesla only uses cameras then - oh, wait, what's this in their owner's manuals... "Ensure all cameras are clean and free of obstructions before each drive and before using Autopilot features (see Cleaning a Camera). Dirty cameras and sensors (if equipped), as well as environmental conditions such as rain and faded lane markings, can affect Autopilot performance. If a camera is obstructed or blinded, Model 3 displays a message on the touchscreen and Autopilot features may not be available. " 🤔
It could mean practically anything. I don’t believe that Ford developed something on their own but there are several options for partnerships that they could be talking about. It doesn’t necessarily mean Tesla and FSD. But chances are that it is Tesla. Maybe 8/8 we will hear something more about this. That would go to the timing of this article.
I wonder. If SpaceX was publicly traded, what would Gary Black have thought of starlink when announced many years ago? Nothing special, everyone will have it?
Ok , if it’s Tesla FSD & If it is the Ford H/W skunk why is the deal not being announced enabling Tesla to start the Billing Cycle ? And lifting both Shares ? Maybe Tesla needs to get through a Ford defined Gate first ? But then maybe it’s just another Waymo Lidar Heuristic me Too plan .
But then maybe Tesla wants an exclusive differentiated Run at the Market ….Hmm! I’ve always believed BYD would offer more , but they are failing at Meaningful Export
Article said - Farley believes… could make it the first mass market car brand to offer.., level 3- Obviously Tesla would be first. Careful word choice as Tesla is not yet considered a mass market brand.
Interesting thought, but I doubt it. It would take at least 3 years to integrate Tesla's technology into an OEM vehicle - software defined architecture, self driving computer, cameras etc. Also he doesn't say where this system would be able to operate, so likely just on freeways. Happy to be wrong though 🙂!
I certainly agree with your treatment of Gary Black for his statement that "all innovations in the auto industry are quickly copied." Gary does not seem to appreciate that it will not be easy to copy Tesla's inference hardware HW3, or HW4, and the software that goes with it. Does he think Ford can simply phone up TSM and say "send me 100,000 HW4 chips."? And then buy a Tesla and copy over the code?
A rare case where I disagree with SMR. I think Ford will be content of offer "Hands/eyes free" (at Level 3) on the Highway only. That is, this won't be FSD (city streets). I do think it's possible to potentially offer Level 3 autonomony restricted to "certain highways only" without Tesla FSD / AI system. This would also no contradict Ford's previous action of ditching Argo AI because "FSD is too far away." Ford has no hope of doing true, scalable FSD broadly (including city streets), but i think automakers may have a shot of getting to Level 3 on the highway only. In fact, this is something I think Tesla should offer: On the road to Full FSD, finish solving for "Level 3 on the highway." Would be great for road-trips and would IMO get a large adoption rate. I know Tesla is hell-bent on getting directly to Level 4 /5 broadly, but I think they are missing an opportunity here. I surmise that would slow ultimate delivery of Level 4 broadly, so I suspect Tesla will not do that.
