Did The UK Property Bubble Just Burst? 

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Property prices need to come down, pay isn't going up as quick as property prices, I'm a homeowner, but the next generations can't get on the property ladder, mortgages should be based on 2.5 times the highest persons earnings, not 12 or so times, rent prices should be capped though no government would ever do that because they're renting out property, I'm grateful that I never had children, it's going to be extremely hard for the next generations

This is cherry picking stats to fit the agenda. The numbers here don't stack up. House price to earnings are unsustainable. House prices to disposable income after tax and living costs will be even further off the scale. House price pumping videos don't make for a better life. Young people are now living with their parents into their 30's and 40's.

Innequality has gone up since 2004. How much of those wages that have beaten inflation, have gone to the average person? House prices are less affordable now than in 2004 for the average person.

Value of a property is actually zero if you can't actually sell it. It's pretty hard to sell a property right now!

Houses are still selling I got in a bidding war with 3 other buyers and they all outbid me, the price went over the askin price, there are so many cash buyers out there and that must mean something, ,where I live the houses go on the market and are sold by dinner time, so when I see doom warnings I see a different thing I’m glad because anybodys portfolios are booming and that’s a good thing surely

Why invest in physical real assets in a country with deep structure problems and a stagnating economy?

We live in houses, and that's what confuses people between price and value. Fact is houses are a terrible investment with a load of bother attatched. You'd have been better buying gold, and let's not mention Bitcoin, or landlords will be jumping out of windows.

Property prices will BOOM as soon as interest rates go to 3 or 4%. The rich are buying up assets. This is what will increase prices and also built up demand from the last 2 years.

Whoever drew the upward bending trendline on that graph needn't worry: they've obviously got their talent in abstract artistic fantasy as a career fallback option 😂

I am to understand that the price of gold has outpaced house price inflation over the last 20 years, but there are no tenants, stamp duty, maintenance, or mortgages to deal with. Infact I just looked it up 1kg of gold in August 2004 was approx £7000 per kg 1kg of gold in amAugust 2024 is worth £61,223 per kg So if I had bought 4kg with my deposit for a house cash £28000, I would now have £244,892 hassle free. A gross profit of £216,892 It's a little different if you buy a house to live in as 4 gold bars don't offer much protection from the weather

Perhaps changing UK to England in the title would be more honest.

I’ve tried explaining this theory and people don’t get it. Minimum wage in 2003 was £4.20 so a minimum wage worker would need to work 29761 hours to pay for a £125,000 house. Now in 2024 the minimum wage is £11.44 and a minimum wage worker has to work 23164 hours to pay for the same house. When I put the rent up on my flat it was £550 a month when minimum £7.83 in 2018. I asked for an extra £100 a month in 2022 when the minimum wage was £9.50. In real money terms her rent is less so she has to work marginally less time to pay her rent.

The interesting part is @3:53 where you’ve adjusted earnings for inflation. Let’s assume your calculations are correct, I have no reason to doubt them. So, we have a situation, where if we merely close our bubble of concern, around the UK £ values of wages paid over, there’s a modest increase of about 12% let’s say. Well and good, the numbers, the money, sat in isolation, seem mildly beneficial. Now try actually buying something with that money. And the ‘average’ has become more and more detached from the pay level most people get - in other words, fewer people have a lot of pay, and many have been left behind. So the average pay level, hides the fact that even more people as a percentage of the population, will gasp at how high the average is. When I got paid £28k in the 1990’s, I recall distinctly, I had ‘just about’ reached the ‘average pay’ for the UK worker. Previously I had considered this unobtainable, things merely went right for a few years - it later went wrong, don’t worry. And as the average pay has lurched upwards, you’re not talking take-home pay either. These figures, ignore the fact that a lot more people run into higher income tax, as they hit the average pay up at around £37,400 as of 2024 I believe. And, pensions are much less generous in general, so what your pound buys for your longer-term prosperity, has been having the legs cut from under it. Defined contributions vs Defined Benefit, isn’t it? And property is a special case unfortunately. I sold a modest property way back in 2009, and it cost me nearly five grand. Just legal fees, a changed practice of what Council Tax was charged on an empty property, and so on (renovation needs were extensive). That was almost 10% of the property value at that time. At the lower end of the property market, the ‘fixed costs’ are relatively huge. There is no ‘broader shoulders carry the biggest burden’ in this. Or at least, it’s not fully linked to the sale price. Then there’s another unseen bit of whittling at the value of what you buy, this applies peculiarly again, to the UK property market. There are many, many more private landlords than back in the pre-2000 era. I’d call it flooded. Almost every single one, has done the cheapest, most cost-effective ‘fix’ or repair, or replacement, for whatever aspect needed altering, and this means the quality of what’s in there, and of repairs, is down on what people who ‘bought for life’ would have done. Manky outdated electrics, cheap nasty floor panels badly nailed down instead of floorboards, apparently heat-resistant panels behind hobs in kitchens, simply glued onto the wall, and a special mention to the shoddiest area of all, laminate flooring…cheap, tacky, thin, flooring, easily damaged by water ingress, and the fitment so bad, there’s a bounce to it in summer when it swells in dimensions! It’s shabby cr@p you’re buying a lot of the time, is my point. Owner-buyers, put more money in, rightly or wrongly emphasising the durability and longevity and quality aspect. Letting on an amateur, untrained basis, with limited repair knowledge, leaves either the work to the variable skills of the landlord/investor, or to whomever they choose as their contractor who will know full-well what’s wanted ie cheap, cheap and cheap. The bandwagon, is always safer if you are able to not sell when hard years arrive, same as stocks and shares. In my case, we were hit by health issues of the main earner, a lack of employer support (ie a very short period of sick pay even for cancer), and the government slapped a new legislative barb on the low-end rental market. This was the so-called ‘spare room’ tax. In practice, strapped councils or benefits staff didn’t check a property of a claimant, until they announced they were moving. Quickly, everyone realised this - and promptly, tenants on benefits ceased to move. We were stuck wanting to let a property, and the only buyer was another landlord, who could afford to sit on it til matters changed. Same as shares. If you get forced to sell - and a total absence of any tenants to look at a beautiful 3-bed property meant we were - the market rips a premium off you for that. Valuation was £85k. We sold at £55k. I concluded the same as with shares, by the time you are in the ‘right’ circumstances to safely renovate and let a property, you won;t be needing to do so! But, others will manage it. Just beware of applying methods of making money, that worked in the past, to the future. The lack of aspiration in young people to bid to rent a home, let alone buy one, is not to be underestimated. Take care all, this is merely my experience.

Whatever inflation calcs are you using? That's the problem I can see here. £405 - £514, over 21 years is nowhere near beating real inflation, not even over the past 3/4 years largely due to all the c#vid QE. You'd need about double today of around £900 to equate to £450 in '03

Are you talking about asking prices or sold prices. The majority of homes have sold for under asking price over the last year, some by a considerable percentage.

The big issue is that many people’s wages eg in Finance / Accounting / Banking are not much higher than 20 years ago.

Because the Chinese from Hong Kong keeps buying house and new houses. This keeps the uk property a float!

Prices will slow, stop or drop in many areas of London. But up north prices will rise to equalise as up north its safer, cheaper and friendlier. Plus from the Midlands we can access the countryside and mountains very quickly.

If real prices and real wages are about the same, how has the price/earnings ratio increased so much?

Nice video…I agree with the idea of silent crash…we had massive inflation the past few years but house prices stagnated whereas you would expect them to go as general prices rises….so if rates fall to 2-3% then for sure house prices will start increasing again since we now have higher wages..

No. Because there is no bubble overall. The true problem is that wages for 'ordinary' people have remained stagnant for thirty years and that has resulted in their being priced out of the market. For sellers, given the status of houses as an asset class, there is still a market as the wealthy look for somewhere for their ever increasing stack of Scrouge McDuck gold to go. Houses prices have not particularly inflated - after all, to keep pace with inflation the price tag of a house has to, roughly speaking, double every ten years.

Inflation-adjusted house prices remaining relatively constant are irrelevant unless your inflation-adjusted earnings are also relatively constant or higher.

Wages haven't kept up with inflation. The figures I see for a median full time worker in 2003 was £21,124 and for 2024 £35,880. Using BoE inflation calculator £21,124 is worth about £36,776 in 2024, almost £1000 more. The difference between my figures and the video's may be due to average vs median or maybe people work longer hours now?

Uk has decoupled from EU, and global supply chain has started to move from China. Get ready for problems. 100 yr chart might be more informative.

I don't buy the wages have risen argument, the public sector got a pay rise just this year, most of the countries wages stagnated for 14, (Tory), Years. Also the basket of goods which us used to measure inflation varies, fuel, services are still high whilst other measures have fallen.

House inflation happens last....youve had food..energy..rtc...get ready for house prices 2028 is 2008, what happend after it. A year or 2

Blah blah blah. Property is selling just fine around me and prices are still the same, every week I hear the bubble is going to burst and nothing happens.

You should only measure property prices in ounces of GOLD!

I think the figures are exaggerated based on my experience.

Thanks for the video. Where’s the link to the breakdown of each region?

7:00 I think you missed out the interest charged on the mortgage, how much would that have been?

what is the point in real house prices fall if real wages do not grow?

The plant behind your right shoulder has been poorly potted, would it be possible tht you can re-pot this plant ??? Lol 😅😅😂

Inflation adjusted Fairly meaningless, if your wages have stagnated then property prices are still sky high then it’s still a huge proportion of your salary.

Essentially this shows that in 20 properties will be worth less that what people pay for them

so will they cone down nominally?

If you're using GB News as your reference point for news, prepare to be wrong!

How about 18 years cycles? It should happen 2026. In this case, will it not happen then?

property pumper in disguise

Again another video with no video link to watch next

You buy house you buy problems, crypto don't need maintenance, buble need to pop

Don't bother owning a home in the UK. It's a total con.

Grifter. I’m guessing there’s no conflict of interest between someone saying property prices are falling and at the same time makes their money buying properties 💩

Lol, no.

Firstly, we haven’t just seen a bubble… we have seen real time inflation and interest rates reflected in activity… you are seeing the bottom end of the most ridiculous UK property “actual” bubble this country has ever seen!

The analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation ignores the increases in interest rates. Average standard variable rate (mortgages) was 7.98% in July 2024 compared to ~4% through 2009-2022. Property may indeed be "cheaper" in real terms but if interest rates are much higher, as they are at the moment, nobody will buy this cheap property as it will be too expensive in terms of payments. A bad investment decision. Methinks this channel is trying to "talk the market up"! (source, House of Commons Library report "Household Debt: Key Economic Indicators")