I've said this on another video before but the way this guy contextualises numbers is such a rare trait in an analyst. Keep up the great content, love from Melbourne, Australia.
I'm not the least bit concerned because these two goalies, although they haven't played as many games, at least play more consistently, as well as the fact that Murray is healthy. My biggest concern with this group at this point, are the forwards.
@@samk3166 For sure. With the right coaching and support, they should be able to minimize his injury risk. If they figure that out, he will be one of the best in the league, hands down. Stolarz makes an excellent 1B goalie as well, and it gives them 2 more years to develop Dennis Hildeby, which also looks really promising.
I'm optimistic, I think our defense and goaltending look better this coming season than it has in a long time. Losing Bertuzzi up front sucks, but overall I think the team is better. Hopefully the improved defense and goaltending more than outweighs the loss of bertuzzi up front.
And don't forget about Akhtyamov. Last year split between the KHL and VHL putting up .920 numbers and in the .940s the year before in the VHL. He obviously has to get use to North American ice this off season and less defense style hockey but he will be there pushing for a spot on the Marlies. Leafs may not have a true #1 but they have a lot of goalie options and I think they won't be too scared to try them next year to see what works. I'm not worried about saves just injuries but they have the depth for a reason
I think Joeseph Woll is a stellar talent in the making, if he stays healthy you guys will have a better season than many are expecting. If he stays healthy into the play-offs, then who knows 🧐
Great job, great channel. You and the Alberga and Rosehill podcast are the ONLY two places for proper leafs news for men. Vs, that kid Dangle and his bet boy crew. I rarely if ever disagree with you . Glad to see you agree and put Cowan into the mock lineup. There is zero chance that he doesn’t make the team
@nawtty8864 he's too young for AHL, and already dominated OHL last year. Assuming he does well in pre-season, give him a run in NHL. OHL again should be last resort.
So, the Leafs' goalie strategy is the same as it was when they went with Murray and Samsonov. Get two affordable goalies (cause they're crippled by high-priced forwards) and hope they realize their potential and become bargain contracts.
I’d say Woll / Stolarz are a better bet than what Murray / Samsonov were going into the 2022/2023 season. They’re also about $3M cheaper than Murray and Samsonov were. The Leafs could just as easily be spending a lot more money for equal or worse goaltending
@DownTownSports98 ...you have zero context for your "feelings" as neither goalie has ever been a starter before. Imagine being happy with 2 unproven goalies with so much on the line again this year.
Don't forget that the leafs also have Murray under contract apparently healthy and he was a starter maybe with time with Marlies he can bump one of the others out
Really good analysis! Everyone loves to criticize, but what other options existed for the Leafs? I think that team plays with more confidence when Woll's back there and Stollarz was the easy pick from the backup goalies. And why wouldn't you give Woll a chance? He's passed every test he's been given. A gamble? Sure, but one worth making!
im ok with the goaltending tandem, that c3 would be nice if Minten got that and Cowan for 3lw, Cowan cant go back to junior he was top player in reg & play offs, he needs to be up with the Leafs.
I think Matt Murray is ahead of Hildeby on the depth chart. I don’t think he would re-sign with the intention of being the 4th option. All it will take is a single injury to Woll or Stolarz and he’ll get some backup assignments. Given Woll’s track record I’d say Murray playing 10 games is not that far fetched.
I like the signing of Woll. Problem is that a team serious about being a Stanley Cup contender can't go into the season with this many question marks around their goaltending. I don't think they are actually serious about being a Stanley Cup contender. A lot actually has to go right for Matt Murray not to have to play ten games.
I don’t really understand the criticism of this move by the media and a lot of ppl in the comments. The leafs tried their hand at Markstrom, and any other high value goalies were traded elsewhere (Ullmark) or signed (Saros). Nobody else was available. I understand ppl want a proven vet, who doesn’t, but everything is a cost-benefit analysis. Ideally you’d catch a rising star before everyone else knows and save millions. What happened to ‘buy low, sell high’? 😂 both of these goalies are promising and on cheap contracts. I feel very confident in a Woll Stolarz tandem next season, I see the crease as a strong point for the buds next year.
Great vid as usual. Correrct me if I'm wrong, but GSVAx is a counting stat, isn't it? GP has to be considered in that case to get a proper comparison between goalies.
I was using Goals saved above expected or GSAx in the video. But yes, it’s a counting stat. You also have to be careful because goalies who play for good defensive teams won’t get a chance to contribute as much because they face less dangerous and fewer overall scoring chances. So for Stolarz to be 3rd in the NHL in GSAx while on a great defensive team and playing so few games is very impressive. The stat is best at identifying good goalies on poor defensive teams. In the case of Woll, Oettinger, and Sorokin I think the gap is wide enough that any disparity between defence and games played is more of a wash. The point is more so that Woll has been on their level at the time they all signed their contracts. The biggest difference being durability and that’s why Woll got less money than they did
@@bponcho414it could be. I had a chart prepared with a bunch of medium danger and high danger stats, but sometimes I find too many stats can bog down a video. They usually translate better in articles. At 5V5 minimum 500 minutes played, Stolarz was 1st in HD SV% and 5th in MD SV% and that’s why he was 3rd in the NHL in GSAx. Not too much to say about Stolarz. He was really good in 27 games. How goalies are viewed also depends on how you watch the games. Goalies with a very good low and medium danger SV% but below average high danger SV% will be viewed as guys that stop what they should, but won’t steal you games. Usually goalies are excused on goals that are point blank and the defense is blamed. Then when it comes to a goalie like Stolarz who was stopping everything, people see the low goal totals and usually attribute that to the defense before the goalie. Alternatively, someone like Samsonov can be infuriating to watch because he allows “soft” goals mixed between unbelievable saves. Or his style makes defences look bad because he’s making average chances look more dangerous than they are because he’s always out of position. I don’t think there’s any one true goalie stat. GSAx is the best, but like any stat it’s always better with contextual support
I feel the goalie decisions was a crap shoot. Roll the dice and hope for the best. The upfront lack luster grit in the playoffs is the bigger issue, not sure if the new coach will fix that.
Why in the world would we sign Stolarz 2.5 mil. if we were going to commit to Joseph Woll. We could have had Samsonov as a backup for 1.8mil. Only 27 and can play more than 30 games. He took a lot of the blame for bad team defence. We are not going anywhere in the playoffs. 2 very fragile goalies and a Campbell type career backup. With Ottawa and Detroit improved it will be hard without really solid goaltending to make the playoffs.
When Woll got hurt in game six in vs the Bruins and couldn't go for game 7, my trust in Woll was lost. I don't trust him idk why the leafs signed him. The Leafs have 2 goalies who are injury prone which is scary. Idk what the management were thinking when they singed these 2. I don't quite understand this move.
I still think they are missing one big piece up front. Whether that is a 3rd line center or something else to beef it up, not sure. But other than that I like the looks of the team. I have no complaints about the new pieces Tre has brought in.
Why would you have trontro on your no trade clause if i could play again i would sign a minimum salary andbe happy money hungry players need to go for the leafs to win a cup i would trade maner in a heart beet you would get multiple 1st, and eather a top 2 defenseman and a top 6 foward like trade him to st.louis for robert Thomas,eather jake nehabors or Colton praiko, 2025 1st 2026 3rd if it's nehabors the 3rd becomes a 2026 1st
It's weird. I thought when Lamoriello somewhat gambled on Andersen, the Leafs had themselves a potential #1. Badcock played him like a feature goalie, but it became evident that Freddie wilted in 'win-or-go-home' games. In 4 years he was always 2nd best to his opponent allowing soft, stoppable goals in the most important games. Campbell had the same problem & so did Samsonov, save for the one time vs Tampa in '23. Woll has only 4 playoff starts. He is 3-1, with a gaa of 1.36 & a save % of .953. Every game was a must win scenario. He looked like the real deal. Stolarz has impressive regular season numbers & I think Berube will likely run a tandem, until one of them shows he's the guy. I think these guys are legit.
This isn’t true. Goals saved above expected or GSAx is a stat that accounts for good and bad defensive teams. It’s based on the quantity and quality of scoring chances a goalie faces. So if a goalie has a high GSAx while playing for a good defensive team, then that means that goalie was really damn good. And Stolarz was 3rd in the NHL last season according to money puck’s website.
