Every Monday at 8 EST Dave streams and I invite all of you guys to join in. This will be a special stream were Dave will only play against Cubic decks, as, Dave is testing a deck idea. So, please make a Cubic deck and join the stream. Thanks!
Fundamentals right here people. If you dont know this, then you cant improve much in your deckbuilding skills. Already know this but watching in support. Will edit comment if I notice something missing that could be mentioned. I remember factorials in my stats and trig classes in HS. Take my like. EDIT as stated: Logistics and reasoning are perfect partners with the math. For example, If I want to play the Predaplant engine (not using Lonefire for this example) which would consist of 3 Predaplant Ophrys Scorpio and 1 Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra usually. Say a person wants to see if deviating from this ratio is worth it. 1 Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra = 12.5% chance in an opening hand of 5 (going 1st). 1 Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra = 15% chance in an opening hand of 6 (going 2nd). 2 Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra = 23.7% chance in an opening hand of 5 (going 1st). 2 Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra = 28% chance in an opening hand of 6 (going 2nd). A reasonable person will see that running a second Predaplant Darlingtonia Cobra may not be worth it because its a undesirable card to open with and keep the ratio to 3 Ophrys Scorpio, 1 Darlingtonia Cobra to prevent bricking as much as possible.
these videos keep getting more and more informative about the game is such good ways. What I mean is that it is all nice and everything to tell people about card types and things like that but teaching them about spell speeds and things like probability like this is the actual best way to give people a ledge into the game because it is just teaching them "how" to play the game its teaching them "what" the game is Amazing job!!! also I grind out deck ideas playing with a friend that uses chaos lightsworn (before code of the duelist for now) and two other friends that build theme decks and fun decks that have actually given me lots of trouble and helped me learn to play my deck better since the advent of links
My usual method of deck building is just having accumulated cards of the same type from buying the 26 card booster packs ( the six $ ones.) and throwing the same typed stuff together, and if I find out one day that I have enough to call it a deck, I test it, and if it works, I try it out again, test for fails, and switch in new cards. this method has worked well for my Machine and Warrior decks. the Warrior deck only has 1copy of 39 Utopia and Photon Alexandra Queen for its Extra deck, and only level 4 and 3 monsters in the main deck. I still OTK my friends consistently.
this gets crazy complicated when you consider, if for example, you were playing pot of greed, you would consider the probability to open your hand with a pot of greed and then find the probability that at least one of the next 2 cards on the top of your deck is the card you need... it gets more complicated if you have more than one copy of pot of greed, and once you use pot of greed, you would also have to consider the probability of drawing another pot of greed off of your first pot of greed to increase your chances of drawing the card you need.....
So... With a 52 card deck (shut up... it's a Lightsworn deck and no matter what I open with, I open well...) and I have a 47% chance of opening with one or more ways to get JD.... which is the goal of the deck since I can't rely as heavily on my extra deck (damn you links lol [just kidding... links are why Lightsworns are viable again because there are so many outs to JD that have been impacted now...])
But what are the odds of drawing my soul eating oviraptor or fossil dig but not both aeolo as well as lonefire blossom or predaplant that is used #1 but not predaplant that is used #2 or garnet, or brilliant fusion but not garnet in a 42 card deck ?
How does adding a card like upstart goblin affect the cumulative probability? Is it essentially like saying you still have the 3 copies but reduce the population to 39? Or is it more complex than that?
From now on if anyone tells me the probability theory class I took over the summer at my university is useless in real world applications I'm showing them this video
This is an awesome tool thank you. ^^ I'' me using this with my blue eyes deck and some of my magic decks. ^^ You know who else likes math? ^^ Matpat. ^^
So, I've been trying to calculate this for a while and I guess I'll just ask now. How would you calculate for 2 card combos, especially ones which have many routes to them? Would you just multiply the 2 values?
Simultaneous events would be multiplying but you have to remember that if one of your 5 cards is shadow mist you only have 4 cards which could be red resonators. Exclusive simultaneous probability for example drawing brilliant fusion without garnet would be taking away chance of garnet from chance of brilliant fusion.
Hey, I have an idea for you after I went to a tourney. Top however many hated effect monsters. Not hated by the player, but by the opponent. Ones that could have OP effects, or be spammed, or stuff like that. My example, and if u do this list I hope this is on there because I hate it with a passion, is Ultimate Superconducter Tyrano. That new dino that can flip cards upside down, then use it's effect to pop it without damage calc and burn u for 1000. People have built decks around turn oneing this card.
Dav, I'm still going to say that three copies of each of the Red, Green, and Yellow Gadgets is most consistent. 9 cards I'm trying to pull, and the numbers are with me. Edit: just tested with the calculator, 74% well, just over.
I have said this multiple times; Luck is a stronger factor with me. 40 deck 20 monsters 10 spell 10 trap... My opening hand is all S/T I draw and get a trap; that is how it works for me 3/5's of the time. You see how probability might mean next to nothing to me in comparison. The number one factor to the opening hand is the quality of the shuffle (without cheating); think of it from a poker stand point and drawing a straight in your first 5 drawn cards, the chance of drawing 2/3/4/5/6 should happen more often then it does if each card has say 40-60% chance of showing up (correct the probability if you like, I am using a number that is made up for sake of argument). Yet how often are the top 5 cards sequential.
