HELLMUTH vs POLK - WHAT just HAPPENED?! 

What would YOU do with T♦ 7♣ on the flop? Your Stack (BB): $203,800 Their Stack (HJ): $97,200 Pot: $3,900 You check, HJ checks, BTN bets $2,000, You raise to $7,000, HJ raises to $97,200 (all in), BTN folds Board: J♠ 9♠ 8♥ A) Call B) Fold

So I’ve seen this several times now-was just waiting for u to give us this hand. I think vs an unknown player to me it’s a call. Doug went over his analysis which seemed to not include that the player behind the shove was Hellmuth, and how he’s not just shoving 9x pot, but doing so into *two* players who BOTH have all 16 QT combos. He explained he doesn’t even think JJ does this. His thinking is he’s up against any of 9 combos of sets (maybe), against which he has 68% equity, 9 combos of T7, which is 50% equity chop, and 12 combos of QT where he is nearly dead at 6-7% equity. It’s worth noting that ATspades and KTs spades have about 50% equity vs POlk, so they don’t help much if they are in Hellmuth’s range. And with those numbers and him getting essentially 1.1-1 odds on a call, it’s a fold! And now you add in Hellmuth is a relative nit, and THEN the speech play, and it becomes a clear fold. Quite an impressive piece of thinking from Polk on the spot live, when so many people would think “Dude, I have the 2nd nuts, call whatever!” I love this fold by Polk, so boss!

Phil Hellmuth’s such a donk, managed to get the minimum with nuts vs second nuts

Phil was supposed to be taking Doug to value town but he kicked him out of the car

I would call but I have seen both Doug Polk and Bart Hansen go over the hand and it's a clear fold. It shows the difference between just being an average to above average player and being world-class.

This was an awesome hand to analyze because so many people would snap call here. Its actually a non-exploitative fold. Polk's range had more than enough QT to cover his share of the MDF so 2nd nuts is just a fold. Bord also has all QT so if Phil was bluffing, he's trying to get through 2 players who have all the nuts. Shoving sets is awful because they unblock the nut hands. The worst part of this hand (if you watched it) was the table talk. These players should know better than to discuss the hand while its in progress. ADDED: FWIW, the decision took Polk several minutes to make.

Really love the Equilab breakdown of what Hellmuth's range could be from Polk's perspective, would love to see more of that type of analysis!

I've already seen this hand reviewed, but saying that, I'm still calling, can't pretend I'm getting away from this one.. Doug made an amazing laydown. I think Doug planned to call until Helmuth started talking.

"He shoved with Q10 honey."

Doug actually broke down this exact same hand from live at the Bike when Garrett folded after Tony shoved, Garrett had 10,8 but figured out Tony had Q, 10 and folded. Still an amazing fold by Doug

You should check out Finding Equlibrium's analysis of this hand. Both Hellmuth's shove and Polk's fold are actually what the solver suggests.

Thanks for the breakdown. Have seen a few people breaking down the hand. Great analysis by you, JL!

When Polk says “what could you Phil” you could see how good Polk is,his fold made sense when you see his thought process. I would have cried the and called

Very accurate analysis Jonathan,against a tight player as Hellmuth is the right decision to fold. He can only have Q 10 or A10,K10, 10 8 of spades that makes 10 7 in very bad shape.If Phil had a set he would probably raise on a cordinated flop on the first decision or 4 bet after the 3 bet of Doug.So he wouldn't go all in with a set as a deep stack in the way the hand was played.And the last but not less important why would you risk another 90k for 7k you have put in the pot,you have to take a very high risk hoping a tight player is bluffing.That's insane. I appreciate all your advices and the content you share Jonathan.I hope i will meet you in a live tournament.

yeah phil isn't 3 betting 14x with all ace high flushes. that's SUPER generous...

Polk said the other day that this fold is probably optimal given the bet size and how much QT is in the ranges of the BT and BB here for Hellmuth to overbet jam makes folding the second nuts viable.

Phil reminds of the “older”locals that grind 1-2 early mornings .. the ones that fold the small blind with k,10 suited in unraised pots.

Funny thing is that Doug actually reviewed THIS EXACT scenario a couple of years ago for a LATB hand where Garrett Adelstein also folds a 10-7 straight to Andy's QT nut straight. Different scenario as Garrett folded the river to a much different bet sizing, but Garrett still found the fold. ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-HNn6ht8dPOA.html

Something else you didn’t even mention: Phil loves to trap. He’s in position, if he has an Ace high flush draw, except maybe with the ATs which can happily get all in against any hand, then he’s going to call that 7000 and win a huge pot on later streets. So when he raises here, I think we can probably exclude the QTs from his jam range and the weak suited spade aces, and focus more on “a value hand he’s raising because it might be outdrawn weak.” In that sense I can imagine him choosing sets, QTo, and T7 suited spades as doing this. But not sure what else he could have. KTs with the flush draw? Okay sure. Give him one combo of that. But I think he’s banking on his play, being a double-checkraise over the original check raiser on a flop, to be so astronomically rare that his opponents haven’t really studied it much. And he’s thinking, if there’s a 45% chance Polk will think he’s just making a crazy play, then Hellmuth’s range should be 100% value. It’s how Phil wins so much, he makes a lot of plays that everybody says are bad, and gets a rep as a player who plays bad. Nobody plays their A game against him, and sometimes they make mistakes against him. Like Jungleman folding trips to Phil heads-up.

I would call. Even though Phil is on the tighter side. I know I couldn't lay this down!

That was a great precise breakdown on the actions in the hand and the verbal reads Doug picked up on! Thank you!

This is for sure a good fold by the result as Doug Polk avoided the bullet and losing his stake, and like you said, this is not a very GTO play. But, before we admire Polk's discipline, let's talk about why I think he should've called here 100%, even if he had to give away all that money knowing Hellmuth could have the nut. My point is, if you don't make the call here, you're not protecting your range, which will allow your opponents to easily bluff you with their WHOLE RANGE in similar situations every single time. In short, folding this is very -EV and you're going to lose more in the long run. Some might argue that making the call is giving away free money, and I disagree. We should never judge a play by the result in poker. One can easily do wrong decision and still end up having a good outcome in one play. To me, this should've been an easy call in this scenario just so you can protect your range and don't get exploited or bluffed easily in future plays If you think my point is too theoretical and don't apply to real life poker, you should check out this hand on Pokerstars 6-max NL10000, Llinusllove vs Limitless Limitless: SB, 7♠7♦ with 158.83bb Llinusllove: BB, T♣8♣ with 299.56bb Preflop action: Everyone folded to SB, Limitless raised to 3bb, Llinusllove called. Pot: 6bb Flop: 6♥9♠2♣ Limitless: bet 1.79bb Llinusllove: raise to 6.66bb Limitless: called Pot: 19.3bb Turn: 7♣ Limitless made three of a kind; Llinusllove made nut straight with back door flush draw. Limitless: check Llinusllove: bet 13.12bb Limitless: call Pot: 45.54bb River: 7♥ Limitless made quad Limitless: check Llinusllove: bet 61.47bb (overpot bet) Limitless: raise 139.05 (all in) Llinusllove: call Conclusion: Llinusllove called Limitless's check raise all in on river for the same reason of my point. He needed to protect his range, even though it's obvious to see that Limitless had full house or stronger in this hand, considering the whole line of play. Llinusllove lost money in that play, but secured his range, which makes him very hard to be exploited and bluffed in the long run. Every line, action, and play of my example is supported by the Solver. Not saying you have to 100% copy what Solver does, but you have to come up with some sound strategies to exploit and avoid being exploited. Don't focus on if your play is approved by Solver, focus on the reason behind your play.

Jonathan, You did an awesome analysis! Determining the potential Hands that Hellmuth might have and what Doug Polk's equity was excellent. Also, Hellmuth's table talk was also very telling.

Last one I said i'd fold and hate myself. This one, i'd probably instacall because I have always dreamed of stacking Helmuth. I posted the above before Helmuth started talking. Wow, he even had a spade blocker. I think that shove was a spazz. Of course he acted like a spazz. Lol

Given he's the button, and the action the only hands we give Hellmuth are the 10Q, 10/7, 88, 99, JJ, AKs, AQs, A10s. All of the two pair hands (27 combos) should've c-bet on this flop, even the JJ 99 and 88 probably should've c-bet too. That leaves only the 10/7 without spades (3 combos), Aks, AQs, and A10s that we're basically chopping with (slight +EV) (6 combos total) then all of the 10Q (12 combos) we're drawing to 13-14% to, 10/7s we're losing alot to, and 10/7 with one spade have a slight +EV against us too. with 5900 in the pot, 7000 already spent, it's 45% pot odds, but we're probably only good 28% of the time. Should be a fold. Unless we think phil would play his two pairs and sets tricky in a three way pot like this half of the time, in which case it's a slight favour to call.

If Phil wasn’t so unlucky, Polk would have called.

I've been waiting for you to do this hand Jon! Sick sick hand!

I would call, the only way I could fold this is if it meant I would bubble a tournament (and well, they are playing a cash game, so impossible)

Jonathan finding equilibrium run the solve, and FYI the solver would pure fold T7, pure call JJ and ATs, mostly call 2nd set, mostly fold 3rd set and mostly fold the rest. So no, against any other player we should NOT call T7. Not being dead to the nuts is key when so much money is at stake. Polk didn't even deviate according to his own account.

Hellmuth should genuinely never open his mouth. It is so obvious everytime. How many times over the years have we seen people make hero folds or calls after Phil starts talking. It's like he doesn't even try to hide it.

Love the superimposed Aria hat on Little for the Phil segment LOL

In a sence...if a scare card came on the turn, then Doug still might think his hand is good, and Helmuth might think Doug caught up, therefore Doug might be able to accidently bluff Hellmuth out of the hand, and Hellmuth makes some crazy lay downs so Hellmuth committed himself to that hand.

When someome raises gigantic you need a lot of equity to call. Phil can reasonably have 16 combos of qt and only a few combos of premium flush draws. When playing; you need to visualize the ratio of this range nuts vs semibuffs/bluffs so you can estimate your equity. Dont simply think: I have the second nuts its just a cooler.

Thanks for the analysis Jonathan. Helmuth doesn't normally play like this unless he has a strong hand BUT if James Bord wasn't involved in the pot, would this scenario play out the same way? What would be running through Polks mind?

Really want to know what you should do if flop action was checked through then this turn action was the same but with the 7 of clubs

I mean damn, you have to call, right? 2nd nuts, blocker to the stones. I'm calling.

Amazing content as always, I honestly would have found a fold for action Phil but it sounds like your saying this is a fold to population? What needs to be added to their range to make this huge hand a call What does the solver do?

Honestly I would call. But when you run it through a silver, doug would need to have 45% perceived equity to call. If you factor Phil's range to include QT and strong combo draws, Doug is about 30 to 35%, so it is actually a profitable fold.

As played this is actually a clear fold, Doug raised showing strength, then Phil goes all-in. Doug's raise is forcing Phil to play honestly, and his all-in would be suicide without the nuts. Where this gets people is they don't believe the evidence and call anyway, as it looks bluffy, which is why Phil is so good. Doug could just have QT and Phil would look stupid if Doug had it. Phil doesn't like looking stupid. If you are a bad player you will call and moan about the bad beat, but clearly you have to fold. Doug just took ages over it so Phil would think twice about keep doing it as a bluff, and to make himself look like he was making a fantastic laydown. GTO probably says you should call 30%, but its only ever a call if the villain has gone all-in against you for the last 10 hands.

I'd call and give worse hands potential to keep bluffing and/or value-owning themself. With the Qs we block a few strong flush combo's. not too worried about getting outdrawn.

Well that's a def but I'll probably call 95% of the time but if I'm playing with the player that I know it's not going to make crazy moves like that probably going to find the fold it would have to depend on if I know the player and what they are capable of but more often than not I call

Phil is generally quiet when he's bluffing. I noticed that too, when Phil said "I could have AT suited" he knew Doug was potentially laying down the 2nd nuts. "No you couldn't." Kaplan (best in the biz) also called out the other two players placing a side-bet on the action and how it could've swayed Doug's decision. Polk showed a lot on that hand and was quite impressive.

Also. Jonathan you should have spoke from Phil's POV and what he should have done. I think shoving is the worst play against Doug (well folding is obviously worse). I think if he calls, his range isn't so polarized towards the nuts or combo draws. He would probably get Polk to barrel off two more streets, assuming no scare cards come to kill the action (like a queen). I mean I can understand protecting your hand but it would have been better to either raise small or just call IMO. You give Polk such a bad price when you shove here he is going to fold a lot of hands you want to keep him in the pot with.

I’m calling. I am not good enough to fold the second nuts on the flop quite yet. Especially in this scenario on tv, I’d be so scared to look stupid if he somehow bluffs.

Anyone who says they could find a fold is a liar. I’m calling and then crying all the way to the soup kitchen line

I was wondering, how different would Doug Polk have played this if he had the ten of spades instead of the ten of diamonds

Against this huge a raise, we need pretty strong equity to continue. It's a close spot as more of hellmuth's range is draws, but they still have some equity against us but queen ten absolutely crushes us. However, I think if you fold here, you're folding literally everything other than the supernuts, which is kind of exploitable. I think as we're near the top of our range we probably have to make a crying call. There's always the small chance he was doing something crazy with an open-ended straight draw, blocking the straight, which we also do great against.

I ran this hand in pokersnowie and it is a slam dunk fold with calling EV -70, calling T7ss,T8ss and QT easily hits MDF.

Phil isn't just jamming into two guys. He's jamming into a bet and a raise with two straights on board. Both players have loads of QT in their range. This is either qt or a hand that doesn't care if they get it in vs qt. Specifically combo draws. The problem is if you are behind you are drawing dead. I would actually fold this.

It's such a gigantic shove over a 3 bet flop, Doug couldn't see him having anything but the absolute nuts, Phil calls with sets, combo draws, 2 pair; would only shove with the nuts and Doug figured it out. That said I'm stacking off, lmao, incredible fold.

I had exactly the same situation with the same flop having QToff and the guy forced me all in with his QTs from BB (wrong color) on the turn. Somebody made a comment I could call it with J7, and back then I didn't play J7 at all. And then again the same guy with KJoff went all in with the straight on the river when I had KJs and I called, as I called his every bet/raise before. I told him to stop forcing us to pay rakes every time he has a bloody straight as I am known to be tight enough not playing J7off, for example. He finally lost 2 or 3 his buy-ins, I don't exactly remember the hands he lost with. I guess, the other players picked his tendency to lead a straight forward game.

Phils shove is brilliant but everyone is shitting on him cause Doug made a good lay down. This exact combo of Qs10x makes a very profitable shove because other than denying equity from combo draws like Ks10s (which beats your hand on a Q turn as well), sets and 2 pairs. It also prevents you from making mistakes on the turn when the flush or boat comes in and you don’t know what your opponents draw is, especially if u raise and both players call. But more importantly why this specific combo of Qs10x is because it is Free rolling all other Q10 combos with it’s backdoor flush draw which will get there 4% of the time. Now u might say 4% is not a lot, but remember you chop the other 96% of the time and when u do stack em, its for 250bb. Fwiw I play poker full time and it’s been my only source of income my entire life. And if I have not convinced you, you can input this yourself into a solver. The solver actually shoves this combo 98% of the time. That’s a lot of shoving

LOL at the video clip... it's a snap fold against Hellmuth as soon as he starts throwing his own little party. Otherwise, it's a slightly ahead-way behind spot against a huge overbet, which is a fold unless Villain is a known spaz.

I’d fold because he either has the same hand, he has the same hand plus flush draw, tote dead, or he has K10s , A10s or the combos of sets, there are way more combos of everything else besides big draws or sets and best case scenario he’s got amazing equity and worst cast your dead and the price is way to high

Call. My stack AND my cards are both good enough. If Phil has QT then great for him. If he has the Ax spades then I am happy

I've never played against Phil Helmuth, but barring some unbelievable soul read this is a call every time. Almost no one I've ever played with on a regular basis would do this with the nut straight in hold 'em, but many would do it with a set or a draw.

"Doug Polk who is supposedly a good, strong GTO player makes what is probably a very non-GTO play." Not only do I share this impression with John, but I think in Doug's own mind he was making an exploitative fold. However, at least according to Finding Equilibrium's video, T7o is a pure fold to the flop jam. The hands that do call are weaker but have redraws (set with BDFD-->full house/quads/flush or a combo draw-->flush/higher straight).

I would assume im up against the NFD or maybe A8s. Something with a good amount of equity where I'm only a slight favorite. Especially at the lower stakes or online. From Phil, it doesn't make sense for that kinda jam unless he's nutted. I like to think I'm better than Doug in a lot of ways (less tank tops and goofy hair) but I'm not better than him at poker and I would get it in, but not love it.

This is all over Twitter too but what I noticed is no tells you how Phil should have played it! Of course he don,t just flat call but maybe raised it 21000 to 25000 but even that looks so nutted too!

I saw the hand when watching the episode when it first came out, I watched the replay of the hand at least 3 times, I know exactly what Phil had, and I still would've called with Polk's T7

I saw a recent episode of Poker After Dark where Phil made a huge over bet raise all in against JRB with the nuts and got called light. Even though this is a draw heavy board I would fold to Phil with this line against 2 other players. Just feels super strong like the nuts 🥜

I have no idea because I haven't got a clue what range we're up against. The fact that this happened at all means that QT is in there (at least sometimes). Maybe T7 is there too for the chop. Against literally any other hand we'd be thrilled to get all the money in now. I can't answer the question because I have absolutely no idea whether flush draws, straight draws or sets would do this (especially for someone like Phil who plays nothing like GTO). In the moment I would probably think, "wtf?? Umm... well I'm only beaten by 1 hand here so I guess I'm calling" but I know that's not good reasoning.

Pop it in the computers .... T7 is an open fold but otherwise Polk plays it spot on. If you do get to the flop and Helmuth shoves, then it's either nearly dead or 65% against a set. DP works that out despite all the noise. In equity terms It's actually at the bottom of his check-raise range ...

Without watching the final results and listening to you and other people break this hand down, I call. But breaking down the hand and odds. The hand isn’t the top nuts. I need about 45% equity now. It’s going to be pretty hard to improve now. And would split the pit sometimes to if I do improve my straight. After a full breakdown of this hand. I’m probably going to fold.

This is an obvious snap fold considering how nitty Phil Hellmuth is. Nobody should ever gives him action. Phil helmuth's range here is Q10, that's it. This guy plays face up all his hands.

And no one has focused on what Phil should have done instead. You’ve got the QsTh on that board. 100k deep. Bet from button and raise from BB. What do you do?

I think an equally interesting question is how should we have played this in Phil's shoes? I'd lean towards a 3 bet to 28k with the intention to shove the turn, but I'm interesting to see what the solver says

Honestly I would fearfully call. I wouldnt think my opponent wouldnt just shove all in with the nuts like that. I feel like maybe every now and then I would fold if they are absolutely tight. But I would also think they would have trips just trying to gain 9 grand rather than lose more continuing in the hand. I would end up calling though.

Love him or loathe him, I think PH play is ok. PH needs to protect QT given it's gone check-check-bet -raise. If PH re-raises small then it prices in the 2pr, sets and flush draws to call him. So he needs to re-raise it properly. But ... if he re-raises 60-100% pot then it looks nutty. So he may as well rip it in and maybe DP puts him on a bluff! or a panicked 88

Is very simple, if your playing poker you have to call. If you’re playing the player and actually know him phil hellmuth is an obvious fold. You cant use no solver for this.

I would probably let it go. If Phil has a AKss or a QT he has me beat. If Phil would have made a more reasonable bet maybe to 15-19 BB I’d be calling

I think most of us would’ve snap called against some rando in a lower stakes online game as you see the dumbest plays.But even against aggressive pros there is logic behind what they do and Johnathan has shown here you’re not even getting odds to call v that range So considering Phil is pretty tight then It’s logical to fold

Feel like Hellmuths range is literally just q10 and I think 10s is the most likely bluff cos I think he’s gonna open the flop himself with any other hand, with 10s he may look to check call and after seeing all the action consider shoving. But I wouldn’t be surprised if his range in this exact line is literally just q10

It would hurt but polk is right it's either Q10 and your crushed or at best he's got A10 spades which is a ton of equity so give up the 8.1k and wait for a better spot

Bart Hanson did a good video breaking this hand down. Based on his analysis, a fold actually makes a ton of sense. In real life, I make a crying call.

It’s not a call versus anyone much less Phil. He is jamming 250 BB!! into like 25. All of those hands you gave Phil are very generous, I don’t see him ripping sets ever and probably not even combo draws. For fun give him KTs and ATs and Doug still has nowhere near the equity needed to call

I'm never playing 200/400 but in the game I play, there's just no way I'm folding. I listened to DP's podcast where he talked in depth, and I'm eager to hear what JL has to say, but no matter what, I'm never folding. Giving my $400 away and calling it a cooler. I just couldn't lay it down.

I know no one is going to actually talk about the fundamentals, including Jonathan Little, so ill Enlighten you newbs. This is a classic, horrible betting mistake by Hellmuth. If Hellmuth simply makes a pot-sized raise on the flop, and barrels pot-size on the turn, and jams the river, (no matter what else comes) he gets the full double-up. When a guy bets 10x the pot, he incentivizes his opponent to fold hands that normally would never fold.

It's a fold cause it's Hellmuth lol, but damn that's such an overbet while a 4-bet can also accomplish the same thing to flush draws while keeping 2nd nut straight or sets in the hand.

I would guess his jamming range is solely premium made hands scared i may have a flush or combo draw. Seems unlikely to be good nearly half the time.

It’s a 99% call unless you know absolutely that the villain wouldn’t do this with anything but the stone nuts 🌰 I watched this on Poker Go and I would have been very very unhappy with the rest of the people at the table openly talking about a 200k hand while he’s trying to make a decision. I know DP thinks he’s a poker god but they definitely helped his decision to fold.

fold. both guys phil is betting into could have QT in our range so i don’t see phil trying to run a bluff like this very often, and even if he is bluffing he probably has a lot of equity with 10x of spades or something

I would have to call thinking he has top set or nut flush draw

I think Phil not even SHoving Big COmbo Draws he is pure value by his style of play

Yeah really interesting. I might convince myself that Phil is protecting a set from any draws, if he does have Q10, this just seems like a crazy move. If it was a tournament I might fold (which is probably worse...) because I've seen these plays lots of times, if it were a cash game I'd call, unfortunately.

Ha love the aria hat popping up

Against the fish at the poker room? Snap call. Against Helmuth in this exact spot? It's definitely a fold! The insane size of the jam, and the fact that it was a 3 BET JAM probably means you can just fold everything except the nuts here!

Call, no way I can fold my hand. If he's straightforward, he may have QT, T7, JJ, 99, 88, but it's Phil Hellmuth and think he could have do this with a hand like AT of spade or T8 of spade. And even if i'm wrong, like this case, I would still have 3 out to split

I’m calling every day of the week and twice on sunday

I could never lay this down

Man, my first instinct is to call but thinking about it I have zero ways to improve. I guess I fold super unhappy about it but believing it's probably just not worth the investment.

So how would or should you play it as Phil? I doubt PH would smooth call here with the two spades out, so should he raise pot?? 2X pot???

Almost the same hand happened to me. I had board was QJ9, I had 10-8. I check raised oop and donkey proceeds to Jam into me 3x over pot. I didn't fold but donkey had AQ and hit runner runner straight

If you watch the video, Phil doesn't show any interest in looking at Doug's cards when he turns them over. This suggests that he had the stone cold nuts.

I would snep call but after a lot of thinking I think fold is the best play

It really feels sometimes that PH simply does not understand GTO. You make the nuts and make a play in which your opponent can never call you with anything else than the nuts. How does that make any sense? The raise is so stupid big that you don’t give anywhere near sufficient equity to the second nuts to call even if villain inflates your range insanely. I mean that’s just horrible.

that is 100% Q 10. I don't think Hellmuth would do that with any other hand

This literally just happened to me and i called. It made me want to quit poker but i already want to play again.

if PH just leads and bets his hand on the flop like you are supposed to, Doug Raises, and then PH could go all in and Doug can never fold ! If Phil plays his hand this way now the pots odds change and Phils hand now looks like top set or huge combo draw and he wins 400k pot

I would probably call right away. But that flush would suck if he hit. I play on wsop nj and i think its rigged, if i dont get my oppenents to fold to the better hand on the flop, they turn me. If i make bluffs that are impossible to call, they get called. I feel like before i even act the other players are putting pressure on my hands to the point where it seems they can see my hole cards. I only win by sucking out and i only lose by getting my money in with 90 percent equity. Flop a set and the guy rivers a flush. Its always a 4 card flush on the board. Its barely poker. i wanna know the best site to use for new jersey is.