Suspect so ... my lad is looking in Norfolk .. 2 properties at auction .. been 3 times each .. no sale . One is £120k and the other is £180k, A 3rd property was on for 3 weeks before a drop from 220 to 200. House owners with cheap morgtgages haven't even been hit yet. It will be worse if redundancies start occurring.
@stevel9914 Last auction I saw there were hardly any bids for properties in the South. Terraces in cities in the Midlands were still selling but anything above £200k wasn't selling.
I've been outbid on 10 properties at auctions now this month anging from 100k to 250k in North Linc, East Yorkshire. Considering the renovation work each house had, they all went well over market value to my surprise.
We won't see the full extent of the house price correction until late 2024 early 2025. There are roughly 5 million people that need to remortgage between now and the end of next year, thats 5 MILLION households coming off low interest rate to plus 5% rates. So thats 5 million households with less spending power every month witch will then effect what is still a tight labour market. If you look at past "housing crashes" there is a direct correlation between a high unemployment and house defaults and so house prices. Inflation is still high. CPIH (cost of households) is actually going up not down. BOE will not slash rates until they are certain inflation is at 2% target.
The only thing that will save many households is a lack of job losses... they'll be able to hang on... having said that excess deaths (if true and they could be .. from my physical observations) will mean inheritance and that could save a lot of people from serious financial hardship. When i say hardship.. I mean saved from their ridiculous accumulated spending habits they have developed.
Inflation numbers will go up again before they go down. It was only the energy costs unwinding that caused the drop and in reality they have gone up to consumers as we had the government support last year.
It’s products and services inflation that the BoE worry about, and to an extent wages, not housing and energy costs, they’re like debt, suck money out of the balloon
Yes every single one of us will be able to afford a 5 bed detached soon. We just have to wait it out and even a Tesco shelf stacker like me can finally afford what he deserves!
Viewed a house recently, offered 8% off the asking, got rejected. In my view the house was over priced, the estate agent is willing to forward it to the seller, but seller obviously aimed too high.
@@robertjones2053 I’ve also been following auctions and seeing more properties with label ‘by order of a housing association’, that could be the start of it.
It's what property is selling for at auction that gives an accurate valuation. Estate agents prefer to value property at the 2022 highs then drop by a few thousand. Estate agents and sellers remain deluded
@Joesharpmusic you can look online at the auctions and also look at rightmove sold prices to see what they sold at. Houses are selling at guide price no bidding. Many aren't selling. This is in the Midlands. The guide price is £50,000 less than what a deluded estate agent would list it.
I suspect houses that go to auction are already a ‘ hard-to-sell ‘ proposition, for one reason or another and so asking price , offers , and time to sell will reflect this . Furthermore auction properties are often fixer-uppers and since construction materials are undergoing significant inflation auction buyers will most likely be over cautious. My own view is that house prices will continue to rise ( there may be a short-term blip ) but probably more slowly.
@MookMineola what utter rubbish. Have you just made that up because you think it? Banks want their money back and will not wait by putting it up for sale. It will go up for auction with 6 weeks notice.
Those NEEDING to sell for whatever reason, are having to sweat it out, as few buyers are around. If they run out of time, they will have to drop their asking price. And that is precisely what is happening.
Anyone would be crazy to buy right now u less they pay cash probably save £100k if they can wait it out. With all these fixed rates coming to an end a house is going to become a huge liability when the mortgage doubles and they can't afford it.
No way is this the right decision. Renting for years, dead money, hoping house prices drop a few %. Paying rent, stamp duty, estate agent fees, solicitors, moving firm etc. Not for me thanks
Interest is dead money too. I have priced up a purchase of a house the same value as I am currently renting. The INTEREST portion of the mortgage in the first 5 years is higher than my rent. Yes, that's right - I'm way better off if I rent and save the difference. That's before you factor in maintenance of the house! I'm only renting because I sold up in 2022, I'm a buyer once sellers get real. Until then I'm saving a bunch of money renting.
@@Paul-zu2hd so you threw away the chance of a long term fix rate mortgage at near zero interest rates and replaced it with some savings interest and a much higher mortgage rate when sellers get real? Each to their own.
@@Paul-zu2hda 10 (or more) year fix at sub 2% may be temporary but it was also the best deal going this century and now gone - probably forever. It is going to have to be one hell of a price drop for the “sell then rent then buy after the crash” brigade to come out on top when the mortgage rate differential is taken into account,
Yeah, he keeps making these videos despite the fact the housing market is barely moving.... People who don't have to sell or aren't desperate are just going to stay where they are. You would be mad to move from being a house owner to a renter right now and people aren't dropping their house prices in large numbers so why would other sellers look at that and think "perhaps I should knock 10% off my property and buy a property that hasn't dropped 10%. Unless there is widespread job losses the housing market will just stagnate for a few years at this point.
No one clicks on videos called 'housing market not collapsing'. Its all crystal ball stuff, no one knows what will happen and a house is like anything else, it's worth what someone is willing to pay, no more or no less.
How can anyone deny house price are falling? I've been watching them fall over last 12 months. Market is full of over priced fodder that would've sold 18 months ago. Things have changed. Media not reporting on it. I wonder why?
@@joselebeer Pretty much nobody denying house prices are falling, even despite some recent reports suggesting that they are rising. Given the rate rises over the last 15 months falls are to be expected and the newspapers ARE reporting it. Is there a crash though? No. Also a house is only worth what most people can and will pay for it, not what anyone thinks.
Decent video but JUST a recommendation if you put your camera in the corner or just take it off when you’re showing artifices so we can read them clearly 👍
Everything he saves is going out on increasing rent. Unless he’s living in homeless shelter he’s probably paid a 9-10% rent yield to a landlord and 3% in fees selling his home…. For what to save 5-6% which is the average drop since he started making vids on this topic..ofc when he finally does purchase again BANG 💥 SDLT and legal fees will eliminate any savings, or do you think RU-vidrs are immune from HMRC 😂
@@oktfg He’s probably made atleast 7-8% in interest on his capital in that time though. Do you think he’s dumb enough to leave his money in a 0.1% current account?
@@WheatWafflesI doubt he got that much. And that is just on the equity he had. Against that he has to pay rent and he can no longer bag a long term fix rate mortgage at the super low rates available a while back. He is undoubtably much worse off even if prices do fall significantly.
@@WheatWaffles 7-8% interest where Argentina. More like 5% in the U.K. which is then taxed. Ironically the tax free equity gained after selling his home started to get taxed the moment he put it in a savings account
@@oktfg I've already made 6% interest in the last 1.5 years and I believe Honest Money has had his money in high interest savings slightly longer than me. Honest Money can probably control the salary he gets per year because he has a limited company so even the tax he pays on interest will likely only be 20%. Not nothing but still pretty low. Honest Money has definitely made the correct financial choice so far (he sold at the peak so do the math) but only time will tell if it becomes worth it next year and beyond.
Nationwide and Halifax are say going up? They are like politicians they always lie😂 I look on rightmove the houses for sale is the same and prices from the start of this year and the same properties. In my home town when a sale board goes up on a property within 5 weeks it’s sold? I believe there are a lot of international buyers taking advantage. Early next year will be interesting when 2 million mortgage holders will have too remortgage.
For newbies, be aware that this is a grossly oversimplified scenario. For one thing, you can't get a mortgage on an investment property without at least 25% down payment. Two, it's easy to see comps for house purchase prices, but it takes a lot of research to understand the comps on rent prices. The trick is to find a place where renting is more expensive than buying, but those places are less common because of this very type of scenario. Three, you have to remember that rent number he's using is supposed to be net income, not gross. So you have to think about costs for taxes, insurance, maintenance and vacancy when you're researching investments. All that said, real estate investing is a good tool for wealth accumulation. But it isn't foolproof.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Recently, I have been exploring the possibility of consulting with advisors. As a mature individual, I am in need of guidance, but I am curious to know how truly impactful their services can be?
Finding financial advisors like Melissa Terri Swayne who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
Thanks for this tip. Her website popped up on the first page immediately I searched her on google web, I read through her resume and it seems pretty tight. So, I dropped an email & hopefully she replies soon.
Darren, for a complete picture your analysis needs to take into consideration the effect that prolonged high inflation has on mortgage debt, asset prices and projected incomes.
I don't agree. The housing market has not followed trends for last 3 years. There is no point trying to apply old logic here. Prices are holding due to demand and our population is increasing fast just look at immigration figures. While people live longer and properties are not being recycled at the same rate there remains a constant stream of first time buyers. I think you are overcomplicating a pretty simple buy and sell situation. Very few will default as they will simply change spending habits...the toughest is for first time buyers with higher prices and high cost of borrowing which mean they will settle for smaller, cheaper properties and that price bracket will become more competitive
I'm not sure how house prices can collapse when there is a chronic shortage of housing. Also, why would u hold cash over the medium and long term instead of scarce prime property when your cash is being debased year in year out.
Ok here’s a little bit of reality. House prices will double in the next 24 months. If you want to get on the housing ladder this is your last chance. Most of the large developers have stopped building because of build costs. Unless the government ditches the absolute out of touch planning system and outrageous new building regulations nobody’s going to restart. This will cause a massive housing crisis which In turn will skyrocket prices. They’ve done fuel, they’ve done money, they’ve done food. Construction is next.
The lenders are lying about the extent of the fall in order to preserve their own balance sheets and share valuations… but.. hanging outside the market and renting for £££ and hoping your seller will actually sell .. is also stressful … overall.. the housing market is a dysfunctional mess
All caused by the B of E , and its stupidity over printing money and lowering interest rates to record lows . You’ve got to wonder about quite what purpose this was to serve . My guess was to push up the price of assets ( including houses ) , and of course the rich feel richer and sod those coming along later hoping to buy .
@@MookMineola No, it has been caused by the many people who took on the erroneous belief that a house is first and foremost an investment. Whereas my parents generation only ever saw it as a home! The market, not being a free one bcause of the number of agents within it, took on a trajectory that was never sustainable. The simplistic economic thinking that has been betrayed by those who have continuously celebrated their 'great increases in the value of their homes' has been laughable. I mean, could they realise that 'profit' if they were moving on? Obviously not, because their next house was similarly inflated. The Thatcherite policy of selling off the family silverware and not replacing it with anything of value (which had they invested in industry instead of retail parks may have actually created a more sustainable economy) included the vote catching move of allowing council tenants to buy their homes at below market conditions. What happened? The inevitable happened...the number of homes coming on the market caused a short-term deflation in house prices. The adult children of long-term qualifying tenants reaped the rewards by selling off after the minimum holding period. They were initially able to gain the difference between the market rate and the discounted rate - but, the political ethos of making it an almost ideological mantra that home ownership was essential to a solid economy (obviousy ignoring the fact that the faster growing economy in Germany had no such worries and encouraged renting). The housing boom had commenced and the levels of expectation were suddenly built -in - people expected their house prices to rise continuously. The lenders allowed for cheaper mortgages, assisted by BoE rates but the lenders themselves were ludicrously cavalier with their policies - leading to 2009 and all that! The policitcal leadership has been absolutely lacking throughout that time, because no-one has the gumption to tell people the truth - house prices may go down just like their other investments. If the homeowner considers their house a home first, and an investment second, and they have been sensible in the amount of debt that they are managing, then they will have a comfotable home, and minimal problems with cash flow. The BoE have over they years done a good job in keeping the inflation levels under control - despite the best efforts of the high spending and tax cutting politicians
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00:02 UK house prices are very confusing at the moment 01:59 Differences in house price reports from Rightmove, Halifax, and Nationwide due to varying data sources and seasonal adjustments. 04:09 House prices falling due to conflicting data and seasonal adjustments 06:13 UK house prices falling at fastest rate 08:20 Bigger properties are struggling to sell due to expensive debt. 10:13 Average new seller asking prices fell by 1.9% in December. 12:00 The time taken to sell property has significantly increased. 13:52 UK house prices showing nominal increases but real decreases 15:41 House prices showing decline in latest data. Crafted by Merlin AI.
Could you compare this year with the normal market in 2019? 2019 - Average 'time to secure a buyer' (no. of days) - National January - 77 days February - 71 days March - 67 days April - 64 days May - 63 days June - 62 days July - 62 days August - 62 days September - 62 days October- 64 days November - 67 days December - 71 days
I keep getting newsletters saying "mortgage rates are going down" I never get any saying "housing crisis due to crash" then I come and RU-vid and this gives me hope that me and my boyfriend can move out we have been waiting for 3 to 4 years.
So if they are at those prices when seasonally adjusted doesn’t that mean they have fallen by less than expected? I think it does. I can’t wait till you buy your house.
Been saying this for months, this is getting towards pure boy who cried wolf scenario now. Rates will remain at similar levels for at least 2024, yeah sure about a million households will see higher rates when they come out their fixed terms but the vast majority will cope. There will be some downside but characterising this as a ‘crash’ is just fear-mongering at this point as the facts have changed! I get it, this content creates views but I’d implore everyone to think independently. This is coming from someone who would like property prices to ‘crash’.
As much as I'd like to see a crash I just don't see it happening. I believe we are close to the bottom if not the bottom happening early in 2024. The main reason being wages have increased at a very fast rate (15% in 2 years) so the maximum people can borrow has increased. Yes interest rates have increased meaning the monthly affordability for people has gone down, however a lot of buyers are trying to buy a house they can't afford at the moment in the hope interest rates will come down in the next couple years. The 4% inflation figure from last month was the final nail in the coffin and the BoE can't wait to start slashing interest rates because of that. Conclusion: this house crash will lead to a real house price drop of 25% but a nominal drop between 5-10%.
Oooooo you are brave, coming in here, going against the "house price crash is coming!" devout belief of this channel, despite the macroeconomic and financial data pointing otherwise.. How dare you.
Will you change your mind after yesterday? FED said that there will be 3 rate cute 0.25 bp each next year. Looking forward to your next video and hope you will talk about it !
The FED didn't say there WILL be at all, they said MAYBE, they also said that rates may go up next year, in the same speech lol. They also said awhile back that inflation was transitory, that didn't age well did it? Basically they're winging it but really haven't a clue.
@@TheSanddancer yes you are right on FED forecasting 3 rate cut next year and they are not yet confirmed. No one has a crystal ball. There could be black swan events that shoot the inflation up again. From the current data we can have: CPI rate is dropping, economy is getting worse, etc. I back the rate cut.
Been saying this from day one. Bigger houses are really struggling, losing lots of money. People in apartments are generally holding up really well, even small increases. We project this to continue well into 24.
A bigger house is more of a want that a need. People still need apartments and small houses. With many people choosing not to have kids bigger house are not even needed. Friend of mine bought a 4 bed hoping to start a family and it turns out he can't even have kids now. No for want of trying.
@@chrishart8548 absolutely, plus there economic factors at play too which is helping smaller properties such as people needing/wanting to downsize along with some wanting to get onto the ladder. Our picture is (to an extent) that we are seeing a flattening out of the curve from low end to high end properties. Kind of good (ish) for smaller properties, v bad for larger houses.
I don't have any choice but to wait a year or so to buy my new home because I've tied up £300k cash in the NS&I Growth & Income bonds & another £170k in two other 12m fixed savings products a couple of months ago! 'Stops any buying temptation anyway! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
For those who are renters waiting for a market crash, your wait might keep you as renters indefinitely. Usually, nobody sells in a downturn unless they are in desperate circumstances. This could result in further rent increases, as sellers might hold onto their properties. Some of you might deserve this consequence since you wish for someone's mortgage to be in a negative
repeat ......you're right and wrong ... people do try and sell ... and fail .. and then the mortgage companies arrive and re-possess. I take it you are youngish ... I lived and was lucky to buy in the last one 1987 - 1993. Bought a house at 60% off original price and it was brand new , 3 years on the market. Still lost another 20% off my buy price .. when I tried to sell.... thankfully was able to hang on until things picked up.
Yep, this is the reality. People still need a house to live in and renting is still far more expensive than having a mortgage because unsurprisingly a lot of those landlords will be putting their prices up to reflect interest rates because they have to or simply because they can. Unless there are widespread job losses the housing market will just stagnate for a few years.
@@mctrials23in my case I'm I a £425,000 house paying £1115 a month rent are you telling me a mortgage would be cheaper ? Also if you look on rightmove now rents are actually coming down. And a side note my landlord doesn't have a mortgage and is well aware how tight money is for us and has no intention of ever increasing the rent.
