How China plans for naval dominance 

Play Conflict of Nations for FREE on PC; Android or iOS: 💥 con.onelink.me/kZW6/ChineseNavy Receive an Amazing New Player Pack, only available for the next 30 days!

The official name of the Chinese Navy is People's Liberation Army Navy, so I guess that would make the Chinese Marine Corps, the People's Liberation Army Navy Army.

its really important to remember that this new aircraft carrier is not nuclear powered, considering the massive energy requirements of an AC this is a major limitation, just consider the elec power required for the aircraft launchers for a start. it will have to have a refueler shadowing it whenever it goes on a long voyage

As a Naval Archiect, Gross Tonnage is a measure of internal space in a vessel, it has nothing to do with how heavy it is. Of course it still gives an idea about how big a navy is. But gross tonnage is a more relevant thing for Cargo vessels, rather than Naval ones. Displacement tonnage would be a better indicator of the size of a navy.

China's about to send up a second module for it's brand new space station. I'd be interested in a video about the current state of space geopolitics.

I wonder if naval power will still have the same impact as it has today. Drones, hypersonic missiles, space stations etc are increasingly sophisticated to pose a real threat to the projection power of surface ships of all sizes. Investing in space tech and long-range drones looks to me like having a far better long-term price value than building fleet eating aircraft carrier groups.

One thing to note is you can build the ships quick, but building up the institutional experience amongst ratings and officers is something that cannot be rushed - especially true for a country which has no experience with blue water operations

I love your content, but I think that this video was a bit simple. It failed to take into account US allies beyond the QUAD or to emphasis logistical difficulties and the limits of a large Navy with little experience. There is just a general lack of nuance. And I understand that the video is about the future, but I would like a bit more appreciation of how difficult that is to predict. This video serves as a wish list for China's Navy, with a brief mention of a single possible bulwark. The future is impossible to predict, and any number of things, from China's crashing demographics, to the Democratic world's growing unity, to an unforeseen economic crash (never seen one of those before) could throw things off. For example, the US is currently spending the least on it's military as a percentage of GDP since WW2, this could chance easily. During the Carter administration people generally assumed that the US was going to spend less on the military- the next President was Ronald Reagan, who increased military spending precipitously. We can presume that China will gradually increase its defense spending unless something bad happens, but the US is an unpredictable animal, swayed by domestic whims and historical accidents. If the US began to spend more on its military, which is not all that unlikely, the game completely changes. Likewise, if Australia or Japan or India, as well as South Korea and others, manage to build up their Navy as quickly as they have said they would like to, China's rise seems a lot less precipitous.

History and experience are two factors nobody takes into consideration while discussing military matters, this can prove to be a fatal mistake. For example. Argentina invaded the Falkland islands in the 80s thinking that the British did not have the ability and/or will to sail 6000 km away from their shores and fight to save a few islands with a few thousand inhabitants. Also Japan thought that if they delivered a punch to the jaw of the US ( pearl harbor) the US would decide to stay out of trouble while Japan gobbled up the European colonies in Asia, we know how those 2 assumptions unfolded.

The main issue with using missiles as area denying weapons is that you will need target acquisition capabilities that allow it to be effective. One thing is to bomb a fixed base, quite another a moving target or one that's under the sea. I gather that in a conflict situation the first thing to be hindered is any type of long range sensors or tracking capabilities.

Modern equivalent of the Kaiser wanting his High Seas Fleet to grow before the Great War.

Video covers what idealistically PLA planners want to see. However, I’d remain doubtful this can be achieved. China’s ageing population bottleneck, economic slowdown and other probable unforeseen political issues will make funding and executing this grand strategy very hard beyond the first island chain. China’s taxation system is also grossly inefficient to sustain the military that is envisioned.

After living in China a decade as a westerner, I am inclined to believe Peter Zeihan on China. They are too reliant on outside resources to survive the turmoil that would be any naval sanctions. And they need to do that with a massively ageing population while is geopolitical rival has replacement level demographics, and is leagues above on tech.

I feel like this video doesn't really acknowledge how dependent China is on Oil coming from the Persian Gulf through. Which can eadiky be blocked by India, Australia, or even Singapore if the situation is right. Which would end up choking the majoroty of China's fuel supply

3 decades? There are decades when nothing happens, and days when decades happen.

The problem I see with the Chinese naval strategy is that there is no effective way to ensure passage of international trade along contested sea routes. Convoys don't work against modern nuclear submarines. Every significant oil tanker or bulk carrier can be located from space and taken out by cruise missiles launched from B-52s traveling halfway around the world. How do you project power in the Indian Ocean once India starts using the same sea denial systems that China is using?

It could be argued that by 2050, a lot of these islands will be overwhelmed by rising sea level and increasing severe weather, scrutinising their long term strategic value.

This video seems to assume that US will remain a completely passive actor as China grows its fleet, all the way up until 2050…. That seems ridiculous, to say the least. If there was even a hint that China was reaching actual naval parity, the American’s would freak out and build 20 more supercarriers or something. Also left out of this video is the fact that China’s new carrier isn’t nuclear powered, which drastically limits the range at which it can operate. Furthermore, the subjugation/sidelining of Taiwan, India, Japan, South Korea, and Australia would have to happen for this plan to work, which almost makes it dead on arrival. Sure, if the rest of the world just sat around and did nothing while China took over half the pacific then they might be able to pull it off, but that’s just not what’s going to happen.

India might throw an axe into this plan, and i doubt the US would just sit there and accept that there are Chineese ships as far as Guam or Hawaii.

I think you cannot forget to equate the US allies directly next to China. For example, Japan has a fleet of 2 light aircraft carriers and 2 helicopter carriers which together amount to 100,000 tons, and South Korea which is currently the world's largest shipbuilding country operates 2 helicopter carriers. These nations' geographic positioning allows them to serve as FOPs to foreign navies that would also play a significant role in a future conflict. Everyone from the UK to France to even Brazil could form a coalition and fight the Chinese threat. Even just listing these countries, the UK has 2 aircraft carriers the Queen Elizabeth class, France has the Charles de Gaulle and is building a future aircraft carrier called 'PANG', and finally, Brazil has a Helicopter Carrier that could assist operations and is planning a future carrier as well as a fleet of Nuclear Powered submarines which is yet another thing we have neglected to mention; all of the Submarines this hypothetical coalition would involve. This all goes to prove that China, although powerful, could not stand up to an American-led coalition. Americas greatest strength is its allies, not its sheer power.

I know creators talk all the time about "users getting unsubscribed without their notice" and I'd always thought that was bunk... but RU-vid seriously unsubscribed me from your channel for no discernible reason, just FYI. Love the content!

I think these videos about China's hypothetical conquests consistently miss many things: 1. The nations around China aren't standing still; they're arming, too. Japan and South Korea in particular have outstanding militaries and navies. 2. The US has binding and strong alliances with players surrounding China. 3. China is surrounded on all sides by neutral, frenemy, or enemy states. It has no true allies. 4. China is dependent on imports of raw goods; any war will jeopardize free flow of supplies of food, energy, industrial materials, and basic components of consumer goods. 5. China is also dependent on imports of many finished goods, like everyone else in the 21st century. End of free flow here, too. The Chinese will screw themselves over waaaaaay harder than the Russians have this year if they ever attempt conquest in the island chains. If they start a land war, they'll have to plow through Russia, India, North Korea, and/or SE Asian states that are all armed to the teeth.

Having an inferior number of aircraft carriers will not necessarily be a disadvantage to China: in the first half of 1942, the US had only 5 aircraft carriers in the Pacific while the Japanese had at least 11. Among other things, larger numbers tempted the Japanese to underestimate the Americans and divide their superior carrier fleet. This had devastating consequences at the Battle of Midway, when a smaller American carrier force destroyed the larger Japanese carrier force, entirely. US Naval Intelligence played a considerable part in this victory, but so did Japan's contempt for American capabilities.

Another excellent video! Very informative and well researched. Thanks.

This was one of your best ones yet. Great work.

CaspianReport makes the China content that I truly look up to! A legend!

As a Vietnamese living in the region, I’d say the the Chinese strategic planners sure are a positive bunch when it comes to planning. Sure, China is a great power in the region, and it’s building up rapidly. But they don’t count in the fact that their threat, economic blackmail, wolf warrior diplomacy, and the situation in the Balkans have forced everyone to find ways to counter the Chinese threat. The US, S. Korea, Japan, and Australia won’t sit along and let they do what they want. The SEA countries are already stepping up their game on arms spending. For example, Indonesia is planning to buy 50 new warships. The US Navy is also developing new capabilities for defending their fleet. With Chinese missile technology is still put in the question for reliability issues, and corruption is running rampant just like the Russian Army, or even more, it’s hard to see that they can stop the USN, not saying Japan, S.Korea. Chinese’s foreign base on the outside seems to be formidable, but in fact, is very fragile. If conflicts happens, they can be easily cut off as the PLAN is contained in the South East Asia sea. The Chinese economy is very dependent on foreign investment and imports. Once bullets are flying, missiles are flinging, the blood line for Chinese economy will be cut off. Country like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, can and will cut off the strait of Malacca. And many more problems. As I am aware, for my own country, the Vietnamese’s People Navy (+ Coastguard)as well as Airforce are the focus of modernization. Tons for tons, personnel for personnel, we can’t compete with them. However, the conflict between China and Vietnam won’t be a one-sided affair. Many new air defense systems have already entered service like Israeli’s SYPDER, Russian’s S300 PMU, and offensive-defensive system like Bastion-P. We have successfully carried out modernization of system like S-125, T-54/55, etc. Complete the maintenance and overhaul for Su-27/30 in service. Currently, the new Viettel’s VCM-01 missile is rumored to have complete the manufacture of the engine in house, and is in trail. We have 6 submarines of the Kilo 636.1 class, which will come in handy against their fleet. The Vietnamese People’s Armed Force is currently developing cooperation with Japan, S. Korea, US (weird, right?), Israel and India. With the transfer of equipment like the US’s Hamilton-class cutters and T-6 Texan trainers, S.Korea’s Pohang-class corvettes, build up new 6 Aso-class patrol ship. Our force maybe small, but is very potent.

yet another outstanding report...thanks Caspian!

The main issue for China is the logistics required for a power projection: most of the nations leasing bases to the USA hugely benefit, both in security and economically, from being inside a world wide network and being protected on their own territory as part of the alliance. For China it's different, as the diplomatic and brute force pressure from the USA, could easily strangle the chain of supplies network for China and making it useless quite effectively. China does not have a good record of friendship and collaboration, often blackmailing and applying wolf politics to enforcing debts driven demands and extorting territorial rights in exchange. This is not a post WWII environment where colonial holdings were willingly accept protection from a superpower. The ability to hold a territorial presence for China is completely money driven, for as long as it will be able to economically sustain the effort under the Wester pressure. Think of Djibouti in the Red Sea, Sri Lanka in the Indian orbit, the Solomon islands in the Pacific, completely surrounded by land based USA allies. These naval bases are just tiny dots, in areas where China does not exert economical or cultural dominance, closer to European trade posts from the late XVIII before the colonial era, then to modern alliance networks.

Is this even plausible, given China’s demographic crisis, and ever increasing tension with the west and her allies?

Overly optimistic on China's future

This reminds me of a version of Sid Meier's civilization 2 where you could only win by taking the capital of another nation. You would see the remaining nation's plateau on the technology tree , and technology advantages would cease . Then it would become a matter of who had the right resources and who could be denied those resources .

Phenomenal reporting! Thank you!!

"Peace is maintained by the equilibrium of forces" This isn't true at all. The current "long peace" or pax americana which only favors the US and their allies is maintained by their overwhelming advantage in force. This was also true for many other empires throughout history. As soon as other powerful countries see a way of escaping this world order they will strike, even if they are still somewhat behind.

China should figure out how to be a better neighbor, than try to fight everyone. I agree with others here, it has taken the US 100 years to get where it is at as a Navy. Just because you have the equipment, doesn't mean you have the ability. As long as Xi is running the place, they are handicapped. It isn't just the US, don't forget Japan will just it by passive while this happens?

Thankyou for your high quality videos. Amazing

Great work as always mate

Your videos are great! Didn't even think about the 4th and 5th island chains as island chains that work like the other 3.

In their haste to seize the fourth island chain the Chinese skip over the Indian territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the bay of Bengal and the Australian territories of Christmas Island and Coco/Keeling Islands in the Indian Ocean. India has expressed an interest in gaining reciprocal access to the Australian territories. By 2050 India is likely to have a substantial navy in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka is bankrupt and old friend India may have to bail her out.

Absolutely incredible graphics. So glad to see caspian report getting even better. Shirvan is a boss

Ok but this is the best case scenario for China. It doesn't account for China's neighbours stepping up to provide a major counterweight to China's planned naval dominance. That's not including the U.S. The other big question is whether or not China can afford its grand plans. There are many potential roadblocks to China's economic expansion, and its grandiose plans may fall prey to the reality of economic stagnation. And that's not even getting into the question of quantity vs. quality...China may have some good hardware but may well lack the skills to use it against better-prepared adversaries.

Excellent high quality work as ever. Thanks for the upload and info.

Yeah this may be so but it takes decades of experience to fully and effectively use this naval technology. It's not only about the materiel but the know how and expertise. Only countries with real combat experience can exploit this advantage.

As usual a great analysis!!

So many ignorant people that think diesel ships are only for close counter operations.. meanwhile the biggest container ships are diesel powered and go around the world..

A good video but flawed. It completely ignores the fact that the Japanese government has reinterpreted it’s pacifist constitution to be decidedly less pacifist and they currently have the second best navy in the Pacific and are making it stronger. And he did at least mention India in passing!

US Naval and Air tonnage still outweigh and outclass every other nation combined. Until that asymmetry is directly challenged there's no chance that China is able to do anything other than posture. Thats why America spends as much as it does on its military, with EIGHT more supercariers on the way (3 under construction, 5 in queue but paid). If the US goes down it's taking whoever challenges them down too.

Wow, that was a great breakdown, thank you

Excellent video, really nice maps

I cant understand why everyone compares the current US tonnage or no of ships to the future tonnage of china while keeping the US tonnage constant,why wouldnt it change,the US shipbuilding will most probably increase,the US will still have dominance in noa

that GUAM zoom was awesone, keep up the good work

All it takes is one major breakthrough in military technology to gain the upper hand in any conflict. That's why Intelligence is key to staying up-to-date in this rapidly changing civilization

China is amazing, well done!

I swear your channel always comes through with a video right when I need one! I was just feeling annoyed about dumb things at my job and needed something to take my mind off of it :’)

I dont think india will let that happen

I didn't get notified that this video got uploaded, nor was it in my subscription box, nor was it in my recommendations. I had to search for this in the channel tab itself.

US carriers = Nuclear powered. 90 5th generation fighters China carriers = Non-nuclear powered. 40 4th generation fighters. Fujian carrier is not even comparable to Kitty Hawk class carriers

Interesting projection and video, thank you for the analysis. The possible issue here might be that the Chinese seem to be planning on parity with the modern concepts within the US fleets. I wonder for how long these will remain relevant due to technological innovation.

2:21 "at the end of the day peace is maintained by the equilibrium of forces and will only continue for as long as this equilibrium exist" how is the word powers at an equilibrium atm ??? The US alone is the most powerful military by far and let alone the nato alliance. I'm glad the US is the main force atm, it's definetly the lesser evil, but we are quite far from an "equilibrium of forces"

What a great video!

yeah shirvan after seeing some other vids I think you could definitely make those kinds of videos a little bit more critical. Sometimes it's just big numbers and plans. Like, sounds impressive but there are certainly limitations and challenges and it would be great to see those mentioned in such videos too

Some extra arguments: Corruption and maintenance effect Chinese builds negatively. Technology wise its sup-par for now. Plus India is building counter plan called diamond necklace, trying to surround new international Chinese ports.

I don't think the US cares that much about the Indian Ocean. Very little in those sea lanes directly impacts the US, at least east of the Persian Gulf. The smarter play is to help India set their navy up and let them dominate that zone. Then if Europe handles at least half the workload in the Atlantic, that frees up the US to focus on the western Pacific.

Thanks!

Excellent video script and infographics.

""Nothing worth having was ever achieved without efforts"...another set of great lines from Shirvan...

Given China gets its trade only with peace, via the current state of things or their dominance. Spending a fortune to engage is conflict seems really dumb.

Thank you ☺️

your analisis always make me think ... thank you

how often do you want to gasp for air while talking? shirvan: *"yes"*

The thing about USA is that most of the world believes USA is crazy enough to use its military. China can build things, but do they have the stomach for an actual conflict? You can only make threats so much before the words require actions.

Really well made

This video has helped to expand my understanding

vid starts 1:01

Japan: "We could've hit the US West Coast, but didn't in the end." China: "We will pull what the Imperialists call, a Pro Gamer Move."

Thanks

Fantastic scripting, narration and production values.

I guess I'm gonna have to intervene

The best historic comparison for China's navy is not that of the US, or of the Imperial (ww2) Japanese, but rather of Imperial (ww1) Germany.

Thank you very much. Excellent analysis. Let's see how Quad will respond.

You have one of the few intros that I actually like.

Thank you Caspian Report, for your rigorous analysis and precise presentation of such technical and geo-strategic information; both valuable and much appreciated.

I feel it is sort sighted to not mention Chinas Maritime Militia. A force 11,000 vessel strong capable of depleting fish stocks the world over, blocking access to areas by sheer numbers and with the estimated capability of 1,228,000 miles of ocean a day.

Really great video. Just an fyi your audio is clipping like on the word "power" @ 9:15

Raghu's fan here! Props to the editor!

Peace is maintained by American military superiority.

This is basically the Made in China version of the Kaiser's High Seas Fleet where a land power tries to be a sea power to challenge the dominant sea power, then the British One thing this analysis missed is that the US and its regional allies won't just sit back with their thumbs in their asses. As the Bomber Gap Incident taught us, the Americans don't take competition very well. This naval race will probably end with the Chinese navy being dwarfed with the Americans autistically spamming naval and air capabilities. Not only that but the Koreans, Japanese and Indians as well as the Filipinos and the Vietnamese, who have more to lose to a dominant China, will also increase their capabilities, not to mention the British, Australians and European allies, who have vested interest in the region, which when combined with the Americans in a Gulf War style coalition, will cumberstomped the Chinese. Oh, also you can just park the entire Indian navy in the Straights of Malacca and China will begin suing for peace

In 2020, China already sent several type-055 warships to American coast for freedom of navigation patrol. It's been doing it every year

As a good muslim friend of mine once said you dont run away from bullets you run towards them.

One major factor that everyone overlooks. War/ operations experience/ doctrine. It's all well and good having a military, but is it capable of using it. Look at WW2 in the Pacific, Or even the Falklands conflict. And let's not forget Ukraine. My money is on the US and NATO.

4:32 I'll interpret 'secured technology transfers' as a hilarious euphemism and nobody can stop me from doing so

12:04 - 12:11 Absolutely critical point in the Balance of Power equation.

Interesting as always. Some thoughts is of course China's interests are much more limited compared to the US, and are regional in nature rather than global for the US. Second is the fact that even if US would commit say 40-50% of total naval force in the Pacific, almost certainly the entirety of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, with potential support from Canada, and the UK would be in the calculation of any sort of conflict. Of course there are technology, experience and Naval Tradition considerations to make as well. I'm sure China will force arms expenditure but anything resembling "Naval Dominance" is a very long ways away.

By taking notice of the Ukraine war, when large targets are subdued easily with guerrilla warfare, Aircraft carriers will pose to be more of a liability in case of a full scale fighting, requiring only one to three missiles to destroy such a big target, drones, hypersonic weapons and other tactical weapons will be given more importance if China is to increase its naval fleet. Not to forget, its a 20th century tool for power projection, as dominance in space provides more coverage and attack capabilities to any part of the world at a short notice.

Love China a nation full of respect and education , I will work as engineer in maritime development on ocean .Thanks .

Ho boy, we are living an intersting time in the great History of Mankind... A Chinese superpower could bring balance in the geopolitical game, it would allow smaller countries to have a greater weight in negotiation with their "big brothers", at the end of the day, no one wants to see a real hot war starting between the US and China. The problem is how the US will accept to loose their superpower status, because declining powers are generally more aggressive than rising superpowers.

"domestically designed", ya mean stolen? I would like to know the inner workings of the ship, and how close it mimics US carriers.

Taiwan must not fall. All depends on it.

Superb

I suppose that pursuing its expansion strategy, non nuclear AC will suffice for reaching the first island chain and probably even more. But we have to consider that until that time they won't sit with the hands in their pockets. For sure they'll construct nuclear aircraft carriers or perhaps by that time ACs will be obsolete in the new warfare. Perhaps they will develop other means and ways to wage war, more efficient and less costly: drones, autonomous u-boats, orbital shuttles for "growing plants experiments", EM technology, all sorts of robots etc. But US and the rest of the Western world won't ignore these changes and already having technological advantage perhaps they'll develop faster these new weapons or even create some weapons that we cannot even think about. Yet. Things are moving faster and faster and until 2050 there's enough time for all sides to reach higher technological levels.