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How is Climate Change Affecting The Weather Now? - Myles Allen 

Gresham College
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Climate change is already affecting us all, regardless of where we live, through changing risks of extreme weather events. This lecture will take a break from global climate policy to talk about the links between climate and weather, chaos theory and the practical tools available to quantify changing risks.
There is a lot we still don’t know - and a lot we could know, if only governments and the insurance industry were willing to pay for better climate risk information.
This lecture was recorded by Myles Allen on 17th January 2024 at Barnard's Inn Hall, London
Myles is the Frank Jackson Foundation Professor of the Environment.
He has contributed extensively to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including as Coordinating Lead Author for the 2018 IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. He has published extensively on how human and natural influences on climate contribute to observed climate change and extreme weather risk, and the implications for adaptation and mitigation policy.
www.gresham.ac.uk/speakers/pr...
The transcript and downloadable versions of the lecture are available from the Gresham College website:
www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/w...
Gresham College has offered free public lectures for over 400 years, thanks to the generosity of our supporters. There are currently over 2,500 lectures free to access. We believe that everyone should have the opportunity to learn from some of the greatest minds. To support Gresham's mission, please consider making a donation: gresham.ac.uk/support/
Website: gresham.ac.uk
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22 янв 2024

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Комментарии : 85   
@WildBillCox13
@WildBillCox13 3 месяца назад
Liked and shared. Not the first time I've linked a Gresham lecture around. Probably not the last, either. Pertinent to that, I enjoyed Professor Bogdanor's lectures. Watched the entire series and was much edified.
@rhythmandblues_alibi
@rhythmandblues_alibi 3 месяца назад
This is such an interesting idea. Imagine if we knew a flood was coming so we could evacuate people ahead of time, avoiding all that loss of life and minimising the strain on emergency services. Instead of reacting to climate disasters we could prepare in advance. It makes so much sense.
@louishennick6883
@louishennick6883 4 дня назад
To add to the metaphor. Building a dam or levee may effect the economy and conveniences of the people that live there ( especially during construction) but much less than what would happen if no action is taken.
@zeusnitch
@zeusnitch 13 дней назад
39:14 All I can think of is a frog-like, psychedelic-laced version of Eric Cartman from "South Park", haha.
@chapocademesquit
@chapocademesquit 11 дней назад
lol
@vthilton
@vthilton 3 месяца назад
Save Our Planet Now!
@satyamfifa
@satyamfifa Месяц назад
Dude planet is fine and it has been for billions of years, we have been here for just 200k years or so, we are the ones who are going away
@garywalls5181
@garywalls5181 8 дней назад
While we are indeed loading the dice on climate generally there are also unforeseen feedback loops. For example,less ice in the arctic affects the jet stream which now meanders and stalls altogether .Which in turn causes extremes in both hit and cold weather for extended periods.
@ErikOosterwal
@ErikOosterwal 3 месяца назад
NOAA defines climate as "Climate is the average of the weather patterns in a location over a longer period of time, usually 30 years or more." Asking "how does climate change affect weather" is the same as asking "how does changing weather produce changes in weather?" 🤔
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI 3 месяца назад
Climate is the average of weather
@markgould9322
@markgould9322 3 месяца назад
Please either put your call to action before the lecture starts or at the end as it is interrupting the talk it just makes me want to click away and certainly not want to share it with anyone.
@craigymd
@craigymd 3 месяца назад
I **love** Gresham College lectures but agree with some of the above - it’s just annoying. Do it at the start.. ppl more likely to see it than at the end. There might be rationale to put it where it is at the moment… feel free to advise what that is so we understand :) Either way, I’ll still share these lectures
@Dwseias60
@Dwseias60 2 месяца назад
Öhm ähm aa, öhm öhm aa…
@Rodrigo-tk2fm
@Rodrigo-tk2fm 2 месяца назад
Why scientists so horrible at giving talks!? 😢
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 23 дня назад
Or maybe it's the message you don't like!
@thegroove2000
@thegroove2000 3 месяца назад
The climates have always changed. THATS LIFE.
@ftumschk
@ftumschk 3 месяца назад
The climate changes for reasons.
@fullmontyuk
@fullmontyuk 3 месяца назад
Unless you understand why that's as meaningless as saying people have always died.
@budawang77
@budawang77 3 месяца назад
Nobody denies that. What is your point?
@thegroove2000
@thegroove2000 3 месяца назад
@@budawang77 Sho what's the big deal with the climate change?
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 3 месяца назад
​@thegroove2000 it's just about the longevity, the survival of our species and most other species and little things like that. Did you like that dude?
@bobd4563
@bobd4563 3 месяца назад
Preloaded with non science. Pronounced nonsense
@ftumschk
@ftumschk 3 месяца назад
Thanks for that insight... pronounced "ignorance"
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 23 дня назад
And your facts or evidence for this?
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 17 дней назад
And your qualifications in climate science are - zero, I'm guessing.
@davidburton2099
@davidburton2099 3 месяца назад
“ Because of Climate Change” where is the science every time he says this……..😂😂
@goodluck5642
@goodluck5642 3 месяца назад
Scary truths are hard to swallow huh
@subcitizen2012
@subcitizen2012 3 месяца назад
Let's be real mate, all the science in the world wouldn't convince you of anything. That's not a problem with them, that's a problem with you. Every single scientific body in the world is in a unanimous consensus on recognizing climate change. You should really start paying attention in class.
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 22 дня назад
You would soon get bored 😴
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 22 дня назад
He is assuming an elementary level of background knowledge in the viewer.
@isobar5857
@isobar5857 3 месяца назад
Er...it isn't.
@joseamilcarsalgadolainez3586
@joseamilcarsalgadolainez3586 3 месяца назад
Science or politics????
@budawang77
@budawang77 3 месяца назад
Just science.
@grantbartley483
@grantbartley483 3 месяца назад
Doesn't actually answer the question. More a plea for funding to answer the question.
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 23 дня назад
Answers are seldom final in science. If you want certainty, study religion.
@matthauslill4577
@matthauslill4577 12 дней назад
Fascinating pseudoscience. Who pays for this program?
@OldScientist
@OldScientist 3 месяца назад
Since 1900 the global temperature has increased by 1.3°C. In that time humanity has flourished. Life expectancy has more than doubled from 32 to 73 years. Literacy has quadrupled from 21% to 86%. Humans are seven times more productive ($2,241 to $15,212 GDP per capita, per annum). People are better fed, having ⅓ more calories every day (2,192kcal to 2,928kcal). Global extreme poverty rates have tumbled from 70% to less than 10% (
@MyYouTube-xs4tu
@MyYouTube-xs4tu 3 месяца назад
Of course there isn’t. It’s a religion though and can’t miss the next dinner party
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI 3 месяца назад
But that is not because the planet is warmer but due to better technology. Doesn’t change the effects of climate change
@OldScientist
@OldScientist 3 месяца назад
​@PremierCCGuyMMXVI But in the wibbly wobbly world of climate change shouldn't the rising temperatures have had disastrous effects on humanity? It's almost like it doesn't matter.
@OldScientist
@OldScientist 3 месяца назад
​@@PremierCCGuyMMXVIAnd what effects of climate change would that be? The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change: Increased Flooding: not detected, no attribution. Increased Meteorological Drought: not detected, no attribution. Increased Hydrological Drought: not detected, no attribution. Increased Tropical Cyclones: not detected, no attribution. Increased Winter Storms: not detected, no attribution. Increased Thunderstorms: not detected, no attribution. Increased Hail: not detected, no attribution. increased lightning: not detected, no attribution. Increased Extreme Winds: not detected, no attribution. There is no climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6 report, chapter 11 'Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate' summarises the fact that certain severe weather events cannot be detected as increasing, nor attributed to human caused climate change: Pages 1761 - 1765, Table 11.A.2 Synthesis table summarising assessments Heavy Precipitation: 24 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (12 medium confidence), 43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution. Agricultural Drought: 31 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend (14 medium confidence. No high confidence assessment). 42 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (3 medium, no high confidence). Ecological Drought as above. Hydrological Drought: 38 out of 45 global regions low confidence in observed trend. 43 out 45 low confidence in human attribution (2 medium confidence, no high confidence). So the IPCC are saying we didn't cause droughts and we didn't make it rain. How surprising! There is no objective observational evidence that we are living in a global climate crisis. The UN's IPCC AR6, chapter 12 "Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment", section 12.5.2, table 12.12 confirms there is a lack of evidence or no signal that the following have changed: Air Pollution Weather (temperature inversions), Aridity, Avalanche (snow), Average precipitation, Average Wind Speed, Coastal Flood, Agricultural drought, Hydrological drought, Erosion of Coastlines, Fire Weather (hot and windy), Flooding From Heavy Rain (pluvial floods), Frost, Hail, Heavy Rain, Heavy Snowfall and Ice Storms, Landslides, Marine Heatwaves, Ocean Acidity, Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, River/Lake Floods, Sand and Dust Storms, Sea Level, Severe Wind Storms, Snow, Glacier, and Ice Sheets, Tropical Cyclones. How about some quotes from the UN's IPCC AR6? "There is low confidence in the emergence of heavy precipitation and pluvial and river flood frequency in observations, despite trends that have been found in a few regions." "There is low confidence in the emergence of drought frequency in observations, for any type of drought, in all regions." "Observed mean surface wind speed trends are present in many areas, but the emergence of these trends from the interannual natural variability and their attribution to human-induced climate change remains of low confidence due to various factors such as changes in the type and exposure of recording instruments, and their relation to climate change is not established. . . The same limitation also holds for wind extremes (severe storms, tropical cyclones, sand and dust storms)." There is no objective observational evidence that we are living through a global climate crisis. None.
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI
@PremierCCGuyMMXVI 3 месяца назад
@@OldScientist you are only looking at extreme weather. You are ignoring rising sea levels, ocean acidification, melting glaciers, habitat destruction has climate change effects ecosystems that evolved in an intermission of an ice age and not a hot house, etc.
@JJONNYREPP
@JJONNYREPP 3 месяца назад
How is Climate Change Affecting The Weather Now? - Myles Allen. 23.1.24. not as much as the magnetic pole flux currently interacting with various pole based weather fronts...it's s money spinner for some, an inconvenience for some.. a topic of chit chat for many.
@frederickbowdler8169
@frederickbowdler8169 3 месяца назад
It's not really about statistics it's about physics and chemistry.Climate change is a reality heat atmosphere absorb more moisture more humidity more rain.
@JJONNYREPP
@JJONNYREPP 3 месяца назад
@@frederickbowdler8169 How is Climate Change Affecting The Weather Now? - Myles Allen 23.1.24 as much as it's tiresome to have someone echo one's ideas cuz i can't be arsed speaking out or cuz i am stifled....i dont deny the climate might be effed up. but that ball began to roll during the onset of mass forest clearance many thousands of years ago...that might suggest thousands of years of raping and pillaging vast "resources" set our seasons, as we have come to nostalgically know them, in motion. a catch 22 situation. it's too late. far too late. though i aint suggesting being clean and green is pointless. go to it... i wanna overcome a fear of flying so i aint against travel etc etc etc....
@fullmontyuk
@fullmontyuk 3 месяца назад
LOL
@tikaanipippin
@tikaanipippin 2 месяца назад
@@frederickbowdler8169 It might be science if we measured heat, but instead we measure temperatures, which mean different things in the atmosphere and in the sea surface temperatures. The sea holds onto heat, and loses it much less easily than the atmosphere which is much more mobile, has adiabatic changes, and varies over minutes. Gridding the oceans and land and using the sea and air temperatures, averaging them together over time, correcting them and comparing them year on year does not bear any relationship to the energy in the earth's climate system, and hence the models that climatologists produce to try to predict climate over decadal, centennial and millenium terms are as much mumbo-jumbo as palmistry and phrenology. History will show this is a failed political ploy to introduce the meme of changing energy use from cheap and reliable fossil fuelsfrom declining resources to more expensive and chancy generation depending on weather conditions, such as wind and solar. Eventually the only viable method on global terms will be nuclear energy, preferably using controlled fusion, but alternatively using cleaner fission alternatives such as thorium reactors. Climate will pale into insignificance compared with the eventual threat of human waste of all sorts from continued growth, as demographic decline reduces fertility, productivity, and GDP with the inevitable wars that will ensue.
@Mrch33ky
@Mrch33ky 3 месяца назад
Thanks for the continuing political indoctrination Gresham.
@fullmontyuk
@fullmontyuk 3 месяца назад
Whose politics?
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg
@ClimateScepticSceptic-ub2rg 23 дня назад
Science is not political. But in times like these when politicians are telling more lies than usual, telling the truth can indeed become a political act.
@MyYouTube-xs4tu
@MyYouTube-xs4tu 3 месяца назад
What’s crazy is that humans think they can actually control the weather if they wanted to
@fullmontyuk
@fullmontyuk 3 месяца назад
Who thinks that kiddo?
@subcitizen2012
@subcitizen2012 3 месяца назад
Not weather, climate. We already controlled it without knowing, so it's established that we can affect it.
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 3 месяца назад
What's completely insane is thinking there is no anthropogenic.😊
@rps1689
@rps1689 3 месяца назад
Claimed no one ever in climate science.
@rps1689
@rps1689 3 месяца назад
@@subcitizen2012 Influenced it more so than controlled. Science moves on from well established conclusions to areas of less certainty such as quantifying AGW in the presence of large feedbacks like clouds and water vapour. Anthropogenic global warming is hardly the most important or interesting area of climate research because it is occurring and is settled. i.e., it’s a baseline. Just as evolution is the baseline for evolutionary biology.
@tikaanipippin
@tikaanipippin 3 месяца назад
The problem is that the records of the past are being rewritten to make the present seem more dangerous. Therefore extremes in the past, like the Medieval Warm Period, and the little Ice Age
@fullmontyuk
@fullmontyuk 3 месяца назад
You mean as new evidence is uncovered our understanding of the past changes? Shocking! Absolutely shocking!!
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 3 месяца назад
No. That is not the problem.
@MyYouTube-xs4tu
@MyYouTube-xs4tu 3 месяца назад
@@ppetal1 yes, it is the problem. The earth is 3 billion years old. We didn’t destroy it in 150 years. Please reread: 3 billion years. For context, imagine having the amounts in pounds:
@ppetal1
@ppetal1 3 месяца назад
@@MyRU-vid-xs4tu it's broadly accepted that Earth is 3.6 billion yo. I have heard nobody propose that we destroyed it in 150 years, until you mentioned it. The fossil fuels we have burned in under two hundred years took at least a billion years of respiration, aerobic and anaerobic, to be formed from our then carbon saturated atmosphere. I suspect you have got a little caught up in political conspiracy ideas.
@horst4439
@horst4439 3 месяца назад
​@@MyRU-vid-xs4tu in fact we managed to destroy the very foundations of our existence we're adapted to in these last 150 years by digging and burning millions of years of storage efforts of nature. We didn't destroy earth itself, but the earth we can live on. The earth can exist just fine without us. Most of the time we waren't around actually.
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