How Might a US-China War Really Start? 

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The examples you give early on of 'unintended consequences' (WW1, the Franco-Prussian war), both had powerful factions pushing for war and looking to incite one, Von Hotzendorf was the Austrian chief of staff and petitioned the Kaiser to go to war with Serbia about 30 times in the year prior to the outbreak of WW1, Bismarck was actively manipulating the French to declare war in order to facilitate German unification, and Napoleon III was urged by his wife to go to war to improve national prestige. Not sure about the Russo-Japanese war though, don't know much about it beyond the broad narrative

The more time passes, the more I feel like the creators of Fallout were actually potentially onto something with their vision of the future.

World War I is often mischaracterized as an accidental war that no one wanted. Actually, a newly unified Germany wanted to flex its muscles, France, now with strong allies, wanted to get revenge for the two Franco Prussian wars, Russia, sharing a border with Germany, wanted to send a sharp, strong message, the declining Austro-Hungarian Empire, with a strong German ally, wanted to show it was still powerful, Italy and Japan wanted to grab some territory, and the UK wanted to knock Germany back on its heels. The assassination of the ArchDuke wasn't an unavoidable trigger for a tragic slide into war, it was an excuse for a war that everyone was ready for. Of course, everyone thought it would be a short, sharp war of maneuver...six weeks or so, win or lose. No one expected the continental multi-year meat-grinder that the war became. The problem is that China might be thinking that same way now.

20:20 "The Winnie the Pooh lookalike in Beijing" 😂 You slipped this line in and I'm dying 😂

The difference between now and the first half of the 20th century is taking into account nuclear weapons. Any nation that has a nuclear arsenal has to take into account that if they get into a shooting war with another nuclear armed nation that the ultimate escalation is a distinct probability.

1:20 - Chapter 1 - The ancient trap 2:20 - Mid roll ads 4:00 - Back to the video 7:45 - Chapter 2 - Gray zone, taiwan strait 12:25 - Chapter 3 - Powder keg, the south china sea 16:55 - Chapter 4 - Black swan, tokyo

China damming up the north Mekong River and screwing over a bunch of countries in South-East Asia could also lead to conflict.

Personally I think a mistake is more likely to set off an escalation. North Korea launches an ICBM over Japan, it falls short and hits Japan instead. Phillipines try to run a China ship blockade and rams one of them instead. In addition, China seems to prefer the salami tactic, periodically slicing off a piece in order to avoid provoking a response. But frankly, I thought Russia was going to do that in Ukraine after 2014.

The idea that war with China would be some massive world-war scale conflict is silly. China simply does not have the ability to project enough power to keep up such a fight. Say they invade Taiwan; that would last a couple of weeks. Why? Because their sea-lift capability would be dismantled easily and then they'd have no ability to supply any troops that actually made it ashore. Additionally, their economy would absolutely collapse and they would be cut off from their main supplies of oil, natural gas, and food. Yes, China relies on food imports.

"Staying with Japan, it was the Empire's continued expansion into the Pacific that lead to United States entering WWII." That's an unusual way of phrasing the Empire of Japan attacked the United States and then declared war upon them.

I'd love a Ridge wallet, but it's inhumane to keep moths in one, as there is no living space for them compared to an old school leather wallet.

It's important to remember that it'll be the governments who'll be doing the fighting while us the people are the ones dying

What a fantastic statement at the end. If this video taught me anything, it is that the future is the finest shade of grey.

Thankfully the odds of this becoming a Nuclear War are slim to none since, unlike Russia, China not only has less nukes, but also a strict don’t strike first policy (this is a extremely sensible policy). The US is equally reluctant to use nukes. So while a Pacific war with China will cost greatly in terms of blood, treasure, and military resources, it will unlikely result in the destruction of human civilization. Along as China waits in till the pipelines into Russia are built a Pacific war won’t even destroy it’s economy within a month making the use of nukes by far the worse choice.

Yeah, the dread of "War being inevitable" is very much like what it was in WWI or any other war in the last 200 years. You can always tell when major war is coming, you just don't know the trigger point (As you stated, people tend to look at one thing as the trigger and it turns out they were wrong...except for the "lucky" person).

If ww3 broke out Biden and Xi should battle 1v1 on Halo 2 Lockout.

I think that one major flashpoint missed off the list is the Indian-Chinese border dispute. That has seen localised conflict between patrols for years, thankfully stopped before escalation, but it doesn't take much. Further, the Kashmir issue could plunge Pakistan and India into a conflict that China uses as a distraction to take, by force, lands they claim, which, is miscalculated, could lead to a wider conflict.

I don’t see this war happening if China is a rational actor. China is dependent on Western trade and imports way too many resources via the Strait of Malacca. Also is the consideration of Alliances, the US has an economic bloc that will sanction China as well as Japan/South Korea/Australia/UK willing to support militarily and others like India/Philippines/Vietnam/NATO willing to assist in other ways. China has… North Korea(?). The cost/benefit for China is nonexistent other than Xi’s ego and desire to out cult of personality Chairman Mao.

I completely agree, the replacement of a current superpower doesn't occur without conflict. The UK was replaced due to the impacts of two world wars. No superpower gives up control if they think they can win or the victor aligns with their goals

The problem with nukes reminds me of the line in Inner Space. "So what. Everyones got em, nobody's got the balls to use them."

If this ever happens, I'm getting popcorn and hoping I could finish it before it (and myself) gets irradiated.

A *huge* part of the reason why the Cold War never turned hot is that that could've *easily* ended humanity.

If it stays conventional US is clapping Pooh’s cheeks all day every day

USA and USSR found the space race?!Really?We are gonna forget a bunch of proxy wars?

"all these Cassandra's"😂🤣 thats a new one for me.. Simon ur my favorite brit. Keep up the great and hilarious work from ur fan in Texas

It would be the first time 2 super powers stepped into open conflict with 1 another inevitably pulling other nations in starting ww3. It's a conflict that would devastate the world and one that nobody should want.

Can y’all plz do an in-depth video on the Korean War?

so not only Command & Conquer Red Alert, but now Command & Conquer Generals. never thought I’d be so reluctant to have my childhood made into reality.

Historically speaking, it’s destined to happen.

Both countries rely on each other. The US and China aren’t going to war.

i guess we just need to hope for a new coldwar

Topic suggest: the many unusual misadventures of the Russian Second Pacific Squadron on its epic voyage to its fate in the Straits of Tsushima. Although its would be best done as a cold read which is not really Warographics style.

Let’s go!!! I get to die, don’t have to do it myself. That’s the ultimate outsourcing your job to china.

A post apocalyptic wars is like a mad max. The term you want is “apocalyptic war” given that “post-apocalyptic”’ has to have an apocalypse before it starts for it to be “posterior” to.

The book "2034: the novel of the next world war" does a really interesting job of addressing some of the flash points and potential causes of a conflict like this.

Warographics is probably my favorite Simon-channel.

I’d anticipate that China has watched the Russo-Ukrainian and has concluded that limited war doesn’t work. Meaning they’ll either do some hybrid war or an all out offensive in the Pacific like Japan did in 1941 and 42

I can always rely on Warographics for my daily dose of existential anxiety 😁

Actually factboi, if a China-US War happens it will be "apocalyptic", the "post-apocalyptic" part comes afterward for the survivors roaming the wasteland.

How many wars has US started in thr last 100 yrs? How many wars has China started?

Well both examples after the US overtaking Britain happened after the Development of Nukes. Nukes make Wars between great powers alot less likely. At least less likely to escalate to all out war like we saw in WW2.

I don't know if the rise of a new power leaves the older power fearful or if the new power is so desperate to be recognized as a power that they continually push until war is inevitable.

I think the hottest flashpoint is being overlooked and its not between the West and its Allies and China. China has significant territorial disputes with Russia in Manchuria, and Eastern Siberia has lots of valuable water and mineral resources that China would very much like to have. Meanwhile Russia is looking very weak right now and is exhausting itself in Ukraine while the US and its allies are looking very strong and united. If China wants to make a territorial grab using military power I think its most likely target right now is Russia, especially if an internal collapse of the Russian government sets them up with a golden opportunity for an easy win and a live-fire test run for their military without risking their critical trade relations with the West.

We all know who is going to win. The problem is are welling to accepts the loses.

Honestly at this point America being leveled by war will be one of the best things that could happen to the USA. As strange as that sounds America needs renovating from the inside out. Our country is an out of control failing superpower. It really needs a reality check

This nuclear apocalypse brought to you by RIDGE WALLET

That would be a lot of fun. Very exciting!

"The US meekly turning a blind eye..." That would be a foolish gamble with poor odds.

美國希望中國出兵台灣，以此名義開啟三戰，然後自己以救世主姿態以正義之名打中國。就像二戰全球只有美國的工業以及武器製造商受益。台灣政府目前實際受美國控制。而中國和台灣憲法都認為中國大陸以及台灣是合法領地。如果任何一方要法律上擁有任何一片土地，都需要出兵才能證明自己政權的合法性。也就是說，只要美國控制台灣聲稱獨立，大陸必須出手攻打台灣。美國不會讓這兩個地方有任何和平談判的機會。

I dont think you know what post-apocalyptic means

YES !!!! I was hoping you were going to cover this?!?!? Thank you Simon

I am surprised that so little attention was given to North Korea as a potential flashpoint, given its potential volatility: The populace is starving the NK economy is terrible and given that the official diplomatic status is one of Armistice, not peace a war could resume at any time. ANY conflict with NK inevitably drags in China.

Excellent video as always Simon. Thanks! On the other hand, you've significantly increased my anxiety level, and after watching this video I am not going to sleep as soundly as usual tonight... Still, it's better to be informed than to be ignorant.

At this moment China is in no position to fight a war against the United States. Not only because of the US superior military power, but also because of 'allies'. The United States has a lot of them in the region. China has none, maybe North Korea. Anyway, a war can already start without firing a shot. If the 'war' starts, then the United States can pull of the same strategy as they did with Russia. Together with all the European Countries, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, The Philippines and maybe also Indonesia (questionmark?) and India? (India does not like China, so yes most likely) it can already cut off China economically. China imports a lot of oil over the ocean and there are two choke points that the US Navy easily can cut off. These are the Straits of Hornuz and the Straight of Malacca. Cut that off, and China looses 60% of it's needed oil. If a total import and export ban is put in place to and from China then it will hurt the Chinese economy so drastically that it will no longer have any money to build more Military hardware. And even if it did, then there is the fuel situation. Another fact that plays China parts is that they already have too many ships and too few harbors to put them in. They currently lack space to put warships in. The countries will not really invade each other, China and the US are on the opposite side of the globe, so not likely. But it will be China that will suffer in it's own region. The US does not need to worry about 'allies' of China that directly are next door. China simply does not have those. I don't see Mexico or Canada turn into China's ally. In that case the US mainland has nothing to fear. If, and with a big 'if', it comes down to a nuclear exchange, then it becomes a little bit more tricky to see how everything ends. China has nukes, but only a limited amount. Somewhere in the 300 to 400 range. Also it's unknown exactly what kind of military technology the US is hiding to make sure that no ICBM can even reach the US mainland. They certainly are working on it, or have something already ready, with the threat of North Korea in mind. The fact that a relative simple Patriot missile is capable of intercepting a Russian Kinzal Hypersonic missile is already 'telling'. Let's just hope that this war never comes. For the sake of all people in all these countries.

Kudos to Morris M. Excellent script. Simon as always does a brilliant job reading (no sarcasm, reading without monotony is harder than people think).

It'll be like that scene in Jurassic park III. Where the Spinosaurus is China and the T-Rex is the US.

In order for that escalation to occur, China would have to continue rising, but they currently aren't. They've hit a giant brick wall

Ah yes, Trade Routes, the goal of geopolitics.

Chinese education n educators are teaching the children n the overseas Chinese to "fight" for CCP nowadays 🎉 for a better tomorrow ❤😊

That is no issue ! The real issue is, America is scared shitless to fight a war against motherland (China) ! China has the world's deadliest weapons; eg. Laser gun that will not generate heat that will incapacitate the weapon, rail gun for ships that cost $20,000 per shot fired against an equivalent to US missile that cost in excess of $1,000,000, a new $500 billion "starship enterprise" like aircarrier (hard to imagine what it would look like, revolutionary nuclear generator (powered by molten salt and does not need water(sited in the middle of the driest part of the desert. new submarine detector that will detect the most silent US submarine..... and much, much more; above China has dug a BRICS hole and put the US into it for burial ! No sir! US led "western allies" will just lose fighting a war against China.

I don't want to be provocative (too much). Was the Ridge wallet made in China?

China hasn't fought a large scale war for a very, very long time. Although that was then, now China is starting to develop a pretty powerful military. The USA is currently by far the lord of modern warfare with funding and more importantly the experience of fighting in countless conflicts since WW2. Everyone has more to lose with a war, and i hope China's Premier isn't as crazy as Poo tin.

It was an informative and wonderful introduction video that was labeled to dangers ,flash, and triggered points between China 🇨🇳 and the US 🇺🇸.. as strengths competition .. Atomic terrifying exchange amongst world power houses right now preserving global peace...smartness Taiwan 🇹🇼 created its usefulness for both China and America in meantime...thank you for sharing

let us have God's paramount opinions in respect to world wars where he plays crucial roles says in 1 Samuel 17:47... for the battle is the Lord's; and he will give all of you into our hands." in Revelation 9:15 ...Release the 4 angels who are bound at the great river Euphrates.clearly war will start at the Euphrates River says the Almighty God who created heavens and earth.china,japan,russia,and the united states comprises the 4 angels.one of these 4 will be lifetime winner,hence,surely unbeatable whoever their opponents might be.presumptivelly,the americAns were the descendants of the ten tribes that left israel and were primarily led by the world most powerful judah clan where our Lord Jesus Christ came from .

Article 5 of the treaty with Japan can be upheld, by supporting Japanese forces in their retaking of the islands, without meaning US troops direct involvement. We can provide Japan with more than just boots on the ground, while maintaining our commitment to the Tokyo-DC alliance. It could take on a Ukrainian model China would then have to decide how bad it wants to keep those islands. If their goals of humiliating Japan and/or a rupture in the alliance aren't in the offing.

Most enlightening video on geopolitics. Keep up the good work!

Ah fact boy to give me my dose of informative anxiety B) Love the content

The US don't stand a chance both economically or militarily. Especially, if the fight is in China's turfs.

I hate the Chinese communist party but tensions over Taiwan are entirely the West's fault. by avoiding recognizing Taiwan as an independent country we've tacitly agreed with China that Taiwan belongs to them. what right do we have to stop a sovereign country from bringing a rebellious territory to heel? Obviously I feel for the Taiwanese but where does a people's self determination end? Would California be allowed to break away from the union and stay independent? what about the people of the Donbass, did they have the right to break away from Ukraine? The so called "rules based order" is riddled with these type of legal and geopolitical inconsistencies.

I imagine itd be like a giant battle of britain

It'll be over one too many Xinny the Pooh memes

China do not have an economy that is based on arms sale and waging war like that of the USA. With the development of China all they want is to maintain and share peace and prosperity, The culture and philosophy of China is not like that of the West that is aggressive, believing in the survival of the fittest and works in cut-throat competition mood. If you understand Confucius, Lao Tzu and Buddha teachings and combine these with communist you will understand how China's trajectory is. That is the dfifference between the East and West thoughts. But it doesn't mean that the East will not defend itself against the West.

It's very interesting that many Tuber talk about the claim over South China Sea after Beijing Taipei tension, while ignoring the claim of Beijing was inherited from ROC, which is still the running government on Taiwan island still claims the whole china and outta Mongolia ... and the 11 dashed line south China sea.

The problem with the Peloponnesian War anecdote is that Sparta and Athens were right next each other. The US could foreseeably ignore some amount of aggression by China against small regional powers, just as China does with the US.

What does it mean?: It will be WW3. How can it happen? USA inserts itself into the Chinese civil war. Why does it happen? The US 's hegemonic obsession When might it happen? Circa 2027 +/- 2. (according to one US Gen.) Where would it happen? On the lands of the 2 protagonists in the end. But starts on Taiwan Island.

As an American I’m happy we are a net food importer. China however is not. This in combination with the fact that the US has controls of the seas means that China wouldn’t be able to sustain a war without starving. So hopefully they do not attack Taiwan, I don’t want people to starve.

5:20 you name 3 examples in the modern era where conflict did not arise even though a new superpower was on the rise. Your 2nd example of the Soviet Union vs the US is just completely inaccurate... they fought a lot of proxy wars and that should definitely count. Why not use the rise of Japan in the 80s and 90s as an example instead?

So if all sides say "We won't start anything, but by god, we'll finish it!" All that is needed is for someone to start it.

Another great analysis dude! Really glad to see you sponsored. Thank you for sharing!!

I personally think China feels that putting pressure on it's claim is mostly an appeasement to those in the CCP that refuse to accept the idea of backing down. It would appear too weak and remove pressure from Taiwan. They likely just want Taiwan to hurt due to challenging their authority. Kind of like the U.S. and Cuba, but this time Cuba has a major backer.

Alaska invasion at 2077

"The Great Leap" forward for humanity should be to get rid of pests. Specifically rats, flies, mosquitoes, sparrows, and China.

Best bet is for these two to just put distance between each other the USA needs to restructure its economy away from china and china needs to stop expanding its borders and focus on its own growth the USA could also stop putting bases all over the world. If they keep trying to have this toxic relationship it’s gunna get ugly

While this isn't the worst analysis of modern conflict, it is pretty bad. US=Sparta, China=Athens might be the stupidest analogy I've ever heard.

No one in the comments has finished this video yet but we’re all looking forward to it

There's one rise of power to the second largest economy threatening the US that didn't end up in any war and wasn't mentioned in this video - Japan in the 1980s. Japan's economy went south in the 1990s and was never able to overtake the US. With China's economy now in great trouble, isn't this a more relevant example to consider?

If you want to give credibility to the UN’s freedom of navigation then why not give credibility to the UN’s official position that Taiwan is not a country and is a part of China?

Vietnam occupied the most territories in the disputed South China Sea, Google please, followed by the Philippines. Why is the USA concentrating on "Anti China Rhetorics" and not on Vietnam? OBVIOUS BA?

Bring it on! Full scale... Global... bring it on!

All videos about this topic are like: "Oh no, China is out of control. They may conflict with the US's aggressive efforts of encirclement!"

A number of scholars have criticized the application of the Thucydides trap to US--China relations. For instance, Richard Hanania, a research fellow at Columbia University, has argued that there is no Thucydides Trap between the United States and China because China's ambitions are limited primarily to combating internal issues, signifying that China does not pose a significant threat to US interests.

Talk too much about war. Who is not supposed to has war zone in Taiwan and China region. Go war war at the US mainland and their allied is best testing ground for war.

Huawei changes everything. Mate 60, is the tipping point event

Another great video, Simon! Always enjoyed your videos on all of your channels. One thing I want to bring up to your attention is that the Diaoyu Islands (Senkaku islands) are not just claimed by Japan and China, it is actually claimed by Taiwan as well. So that could be a cause of some division between Japan and Taiwan

I believe that in the information age we are more than capable of talking ourselves back from the edge of oblivion. If a deadly accident does occur between us, I believe it's more probable that we forgive and forget.

The sickest thing is that Russia and China refer to the wrongs they suffered from Germany and Japan. And these countries are doing what Germany and Japan are doing.

Interesting that a computer chip factory is coming to central Ohio. The factory should be up and running in 10 years.

U$A INSISTS HE DOESN’T WANT A NEW COLD WAR. HIS ACTIONS SAY OTHERWISE Notably, U$A has framed international politics as a struggle between democracies and autocracies. Divide the world into two competing ideological blocs: democratic nations in one camp and the rest in another. This mindset revives an unhelpful Cold War-era framework that split nations into rival groups on Manichean terms, usually preventing cooperation across a range of vital issues.

For those not paying attention: China has twice in the last two weeks, moved military equipment through waters between Japanese territorial islands in Okinawa. China wants the US or its allies to fire the first shot.