Full Episode: • Sarah C. M. Paine - WW... (October 2023) Transcript: www.dwarkeshpa... Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple... Spotify: open.spotify.c... Follow me on Twitter: / dwarkesh_sp
The American state can't be trusted by allies. My guess is America will go with applying perpetual sanctions on China rather than defending Taiwan. They will defend Japan and South Korea. At this time, it looks like Philippines will go with America. But, just like Hong Kong, western powers aren't going to protect ethnically Chinese from ethnically Chinese. If Taiwan does well enough that the CCP loses control, they've got a chance. But otherwise Taiwan will become a devastated backwater. Semiconductor fabs don't survive invasions.
U.S. President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-pegGjfowbdw.html
Nationalism is just part of the unifying factor for Chinese people. Economic and security stability for which the central Government takes charge. That unifies people. China has had wars strife up the wazoo. They want peace and unity.
I used to believe such theory until I saw the Beijing's olympic. The genie is out and it wont be going back, in fact it cannot, the bottle is too small.
She is a great speaker and storyteller. She reminds me a lot of my history teacher. I failed almost every class, but I excelled in history, getting A's on my essays because she was such a great teacher.
this lady is justifying u.s foreign policy on china by telling you that while the chinese government lifted 800 million people out of poverty, they are only doing it to stay in power, therefore there should be sanctions. and china should go back to being poor so the chinese people can have a reason to overthrow their government. This is some next level hubris and the level of delusional thinking in the western think tanks.
Well she nailed Deng's impact. Sorry to have seen him go but I was in China in 2004 teaching and I got the distinct impression that many of my students, despite the "Mao is the greatest" that prevailed as the official construct they were aware of the benefits of Deng and the changes he had made. There were literally small stores/noodle stands in nearly every doorway. That was both the symptom and the cause of the increasing living standard. Many of my students were also victims of the tian 'anmen persecutions and openly expressed their happiness about having put that behind them. For context the school was an English language instruction school. I do speak Mandarin well enough to have spoken to them in Mandarin.
I was in China around Beijing Olympic's time. That was an optimistic times, Deng has long passed but the fruits of his reforms is entering its zenith. Cross-straights relations is warming, Hong Kong & Macao's self rule was generally respected. There were faint hope that China might gradually transition into a Taiwan's style democracy, and Hong Kongers might soon be directly electing their Chief Executive as promised in Basic Law. Now, all gone down the drains.
Sarah is being biased on China. She avoided and omitted JZM era... were the U$ Bombing of Chinese embassy happened (followed a day or two by Philippine grounding a navy ship in a reef)... the EP-3 incident. And in HJT era... the sabotages on China's Olympic Torch tour and smear on Chinese sports (ie. alleged cheating and child abuse)... Staged "uprising" in Tibetan places that were violent (murders and maiming)... Obama's "Pivot to Asia" policy . And so on and so forth !
@@chieftanke Funny twist and spin ! U$ covert Destabilization Ops against Ma administration (ie. "sunflower movement")... against HK gov't legislatures (ie. "umbrella movement"). "sunflower movement"
@@wuhaninstituteofvirology5226 Funny fake news and disinformation 🤡 On the first day of Beijing Olympics... Beijing's taxi company's 2-way radio got hijacked. Fox News' Megyn Kelly was falsely alleging child abuse by China on its athletes training. Months prior ...U$ masterminded "Tibetan uprising" that led to murders and maiming of Han-Chinese living in Tibetan places. U$ masterminded "sunflower movement" against KMT's Ma administration... also the "umbrella movement" in Hongkong .
The most brillant people are Never allowed to work for government. The democrats only wants puppets and marketing folks, NOT talented folks. That is why they are attacking Trump constantly.
So why did Lincoln take the confederate South back when the latter wanted outta the union? South had decided they would be just fine on their own but Lincoln went for war to stop it. Cannot have it both ways, lady Paine.
Very concise woman that seems to really know how to focus on what is important. I always love a scholar that is able to explain semantics without the tradeoff of inaccuracy because they want to sound smarter. She doesnt need to prove it.
Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
She is completely clueless. First wave of “artillery” will be MLRS and SRBM/PGM against ROC troop concentrates, C4I clusters, airfields and ports. Not cities. As far as sanctions go, how’s that working out for Russia? She acts as if there is no cost incurred to the US in bifurcating the global trade and financial system, which is ludicrous. And then there is the actual premise that Taiwan is defended because it’s a democracy? LOL. When did the ROC’s first election take place? Taiwan isn’t about Taiwan, but the US-China relationship.
She's brilliant and interesting. However, sanctions don't "work" in that they don't ever achieve their ends. Take her own example. The stated goal of the sanctions against N. Korea are perfectly unfulfilled. The same corrupt government is still in power, and that government HAS nuclear capability, and they still credibly threaten their neighbors. What part about those sanctions "worked". Was crippling their economy and throwing the entire nation into starvation and poverty the stated goal? If it was, "mission accomplished". But that wasn't the stated goal. Has sanctions worked against Russia? No. Against Iran? No. Against Venezuela? No. Cuba? No. Tell me I'm wrong.
You sound like a Putin bot. Regardless, unless you have a crystal ball on who will be President when they actually invade, and who controls the legislature, the question is impossible to answer.
Yea Sarah talks a good game but most of it is BS , we are all products of our environment , if she lived in the real world she would have a bit more credibility
as always, it all sounds as good as advertisement on tv but far from reality, just another western mentality and analysis of not understanding China at all.
The key to sanctions is longevity. Will sanctions last long enough in order to have a significant impact? Or will things eventually return to the status quo?
1. There is a ton of trade between china taiwan right now 2. China doesnt want to take taiwan by force, they much prefer a diplomatic or economic solution 3. Sanctions make war with taiwan *more* likely because is lowers the cost of the war for china. If china is sanctioned to the degree that russia is for example they wouldnt have to worry about retaliatory sanctions since the sanctions are already in place.
aren't the ccp wumao always going on about how the US is a warmonger? 🤣 and this lady just explained the North Korea, South Korea example of generational deterioration/weakening of those put under sanctions. so if we do want to go to war we'd want you at a disadvantage so sanction away
Sanctions are actually accelerating the process. China has very strong productivity, but due to economic difficulties, domestic demand has decreased, and due to sanctions, external demand has decreased. Then the war is the only way to divert people‘s attention and create new demand to deal with unemployment.
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller Jd_miller@hotmail.com Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
also nuclear war more likely... If sanctions do indeed work and the war in taiwan rages on for years. The more weak the Chinese government will become and the more they will press the accelerator on the war. Just like Putin is doing and how Hitler & japan did in world war 2. You don't slow down, you accelerate. Every single resource and options will be used before trying to capitulate. And a nuclear option will be quite viable when you don't have nothing to loose already.
Nonsense. In democracies, the government cares quite a bit whether it's inclined that way or not, because the people are the ones that vote them in and out of office. The problem with democracies is the opposite. Politicians are incentivized to give the people whatever their hearts desire, even when it's not in their long term interests. This is what deficit spending is so hard to stop.
@@charlesqin1885 What you're doing is called conflation. You originally meant one thing with "people's interest" but you'll happily use any other definition of "people's interest" so that you're always right. It's a very dishonest and unintelligent way to argue.
@@ronaldbell7429 well, I am sorry to hear that you were able to conflate two apparent interpretations of what seems to be a clearly written piece of English.
She has child like understanding of politics. There is little understanding of history, simply an economic determinism of issues. China has a larger navy, larger army and larger economy than US today. China wants to increase its influence to secure its status as preeminent power. Taiwan's geography and US bases is a major security threat to Chinese. See this from Chinese eyes. Would you like Chinese naval base next to California coastline? You have the answer
Impressive gal. I'm retired USAF, once had an opportunity to teach at the Naval War College. I was a JAG so it probably would have been teaching law, law of the sea, rules of engagement, etc. My boss scuttled it as he was convinced it wouldn't have helped my career as an AF officer. If the instructors are all as bright as this one, i think it would have been fun.
Its hilarious to hear the whitest of whitey white people talk about how China's "doing it wrong", which is why the U.S. has made the bet to isolate itself on the world stage by sanctioning 20% of global population, because they're failing so hard. To list the failures this women left out of her spiel: HSR across the entire nation, self construction space station, re-usable rockets, asteroid mining, #1 hydro electric power in the world, 30% re-usable energy sources, Xiong An smart city, Greater Bay Area 70M+ tech center, largest gold producer in the world, the #1 auto manufacturer in the world at the rock bottom price, 10yr head start on 5G deployment with fresh new 6G satellites already launched, independent Beidou GPS, hypersonic projectiles, #1 manufacturer to the globe of which the U.S. is a mere 4% with all of NATO making up 18% and China alone dwarfing all at 20%. This lady is comedy.
China would rather be sanctioned than give up on Tiawan. She said it herself, rule of the Communist party trumps economics. Also, she cited North Korea on how sanctions work. Kim Jong Un hasn't relinquished anything despite decades of sanctions.
I believe it is so because Xi needs to save face for himself. Mao stated that Taiwan is not part of China, and should be independent. The KMT who fled from China just simply brought along ROC. Before that it was imperial Japan, and before that was a short lived republic of Formosa.
@@jamiel6405 Taiwan presents a continuous strategic threat to the PRC. The US govt. takes the threat seriously, because they have brought the strategic chip manufacture, Taiwan Semi Conductor to Arizona.
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
@@johnchan4136 American patriot Gen. Smedley Butler revealed what American national policy is all about ... War is a racket ! Deep State has abandoned the KMT in behalf of it's new ally, the DPP .
Amazing, I appreciate finding people with academic backgrounds. I love all podcasts, but its very nice to hear from someone who is very informed and knowledgeable in topics like this.
Thank god finally someone articulates sanctions and their criticisms and explains that YES they do work but not in the immediate instantly effective way everyone seems to expect and demand of them, so sick of EU gov’s condescending to the public about how sanctions is the be-all and end-all of consequences, they need to be more transparent about how sanctions have their limits BUT they do certainly have impact. Russian economics rn while putting up an image of sunshine & rainbows and ‘growth’ and comeback boom is a short-term, long-term they can’t manage this. Issue is ofc that sanctions aren’t great during wartime given their long-term effectiveness and short-term drawbacks
LOL! CCP v KMT for over 90 years and you say why CHINA wants TAIWAN? RULES? Who's rule? Why would China follow USA's rule? If you are in USA, sure, follow USA rule. If you are in China, you follow China's rule. Forget the CCP party. EVERY CHINESE person I've ever known while I worked in China insist on Unification. EVERYONE. Even the anti-CCP liberal artist types. There is not a SINGLE CHINESE that I've ever met felt that Taiwan can declare independence. This is about China's sovereignty. Even Taiwan's CONSTITUTION and OFFICIAL NAME is REPUBLIC OF CHINA. You need to go back to school. Sanctions means NOTHING to China when it comes to sovereignty. China IS NOT NORTH KOREA. NO ONE can successfully sanction and isolate China and win. Its been done before, China is still here and growing more powerful. Sanctions don't work. Ask Huawei.
It's not sanction, it's just economic warfare and bullying, but what if China is more powerful, who will be sanctioning whom then? Chinas trade only amount about 15% of it's GDP, far less than UKs 40% for ex. while it's the *largest* trading partner of over 120 nations around the world, west isn't getting more powerful, it peaked around 1990s and it's on a continued journey downwards since. Taiwan is considered a sovereign territory of China legally, one can only imagine how much China is willing to pay for it, the entire military modernization of China since 1996 is centered around taking back Taiwan, I seriously doubt west understand the Chinese determination on the subject.
US would win if they started sanctioning & engaging trade war against China 25 years ago. But today, the table has turned. Today's China is much more powerful economically & advanced in infrastructure & supply chains. And they have considerable soft power.
China appears to be waiting for the USA to go broke paying Contractors to construct military facilities in Pacific Rim Locations. In 1967 that Cost defeated LBJ's plan to develop a War on poverty. The US was short on cash. So the Nixon Administration created a new Currency. Now the US Empire appears to have exceeded it's limitations?
As with anything there are usually more than one side. China is in deep trouble demographically. Due to so many years under the one-child policy for population control, they doomed themselves to an aging population by not repealing it 25-30 years ago when it was no longer needed. As their predominant Han culture is their national identity, they are facing the end of their national identity by 2050 due to too few women and young men to repopulate according to Peter Zeihan. Therefore, taking over Taiwan with is its robust manufacturing of advanced electronics AND its 23.5 million younger Han population makes sense from Xi's perspective if he's trying to preserve ancient Chinese culture for the present and future. This means that they have fewer men of fighting age to sustain long-term fighting (like in Ukraine) should they attempt a military takeover of Taiwan. And while they may boast the largest navy, they consider every fishing boat and dugout canoe a naval vessel. Their actual blue-water navy pales when compared to the US or even Japan. By comparison they have 4 Super Carriers while the US has 44. And those US carrier groups are the largest fighting forces with the most advanced tech in the world. Taiwan is a country that the US or it's allies would not commit to a proxy war like in Ukraine. We would be an active combatants as would Australia, Japan, S. Korea, Philippines and perhaps even India. China would need 40 more years of unfettered development and population growth to even pretend that conquering Taiwan is a possibility. The bottom line is that Taiwan is worth more to the US than Ukraine tho we didn't want to see a young democracy fall to an authoritarian military state. Taiwan presently manufactures 95% of the advanced microchips we use in military, manufacturing, AI and medical applications. We won't passively stand by in that case.
For one thing it is semi conductors and chips. Then there is the principles thing that Taiwan has a right to choose their own government. Next is the freedom of seas issue of keeping them open for trade. And promises we made to them.
John Joseph Mearsheimer said he has never met a Chinese who did not consider Taiwan a sacred part of China! He believes China may be willing to bear unbelievable price to take back Taiwan if provoked to. US can not win the war because the logistics and the distance of US to Taiwan, and the US can not afford to lose Taiwan because US will be kicked out the west Pacific! The Best US can to is to avoid such a showdown. Well, Chinese knows this as well.
Well, US is actively pushing toward a situation where China will have to take Taiwan. No doubt prodded by people who think like this lady, believing China only wants Taiwan for the power and control of communist party.
As Chinese lives in manland China, I could assrue you, most of us believe make Taiwan true part of China is something must be done. The tolerance would be extremely high when comes to the cost of taking Taiwan. At the same time, we are very confident our government will do a good job to make it happen, Chinese leaders are one of the most professional in the world, they know what they are doing. Taking Taiwan is not about dealing with tiny army on the island, it's about dealing with US and its pawns. Taiwan is like 100km from mainland China, there is no way US army could defeat China at this close. The only thing we should be worry about is so called US's 'low human rights advantages'. After covid, we find US elites did not that care about there people's life, that is scary to Chinese. That means we should consider the worst circumstances when dealing with US. China's unclear arsenals must be expanded quickly, so as to make sure US acts rationally when the final game begins.
Sorry to say. but the idea of "who needs Taiwan?" is totally wrong. It has nothing to do with the party try to maintain the power. If you look at the map, you would know how close Taiwan and most profitable regions of China. The true fear is: the moment China let go of Taiwan, US would put the missile base there, same as NATO expension. The question is would China takes such risk? Same as would US takes the risk of let Russia put missile base in Cuba?
Who knows. I didn't vote for W.Bush. He should have been better informed about the chemical weapons. However, that sweet lovable dictator that dictatorships admire so much did not honor original peace agreement from the first gulf War. As far as Afghanistan goes, we should have left right after we killed bin Laden. But George W. Bush was into nation building in a tribal area with no sense of nationality. Nations like people will make mistakes and mistakes of judgment. America is not perfect we made a mistake. But we can admit making mistakes.
Consider this additional factor. For many years, the PRC had a one child policy. As the culture favored boys over girls, China has 5% more men than women, whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men. The 18-23 year old demographic in China is ~103 million. Between 20-40 is ~ 350 million. That works out to at least 10 million young men who will never find a wife. That's a lot of testosterone that needs to be corralled & nationalism is always a good way of doing such. Compound that demographic with a rhetoric of the historical victimization of China in the latter part of the Qing dynasty & you have a lot of energy which could be deflected by some international "muscle flexing."
Even though we don't have this exact situation in the West, we do have young men not finding a wife to have children with. But this does not result in a fighting force that would die for the country because they have nothing else to do. Quite the contrary, young lonely men think of their own country as being at at fault for that not an outside force. A married man with children plants roots in the country he is living in and wants it to do well - he is far more likely to want to fight for it. Unmarried men without children aren't idiots. Why would they get maimed or if they are lucky, die, for a country that hasn't offered them the basic needs of a human being? For men that is mostly a wife and children. Who would he be fighting for? Some old dude in the CCP? Honestly I believe it is far more likely, that like in the Arab spring, men would rather go and rebel against their own country's leadership than go die for them, especially when they have nothing to lose. Maybe it works for very young people, 18-24 because they still think they can do it. But any man over 28 that does not have a partner and children, the last thing he would do is die for his country that seems to have given him nothing to die for.
Funny twist and spin ! PRC Chinese men can find a wife in overseas Chinese community. Also in countries without an ethnic Chinese community. Chinese people were humiliated up to the 1940s ... with the Japanese phased invasions ! Even today... Japan refuses to admit it's Crimes Against Humanity ! Also refuses to return looted properties !
@@minyaw1234 CPC continue to have majority support from the people . Ordinary Chinese knows why many of them became jobless ... due to Trump's unjust tariffs, sanctions and embargoes !... That's continued by Biden !
@@minyaw1234 It's not a state job to find young men a wife. The GDR actually did this, but no one could imagine a state-run arrangement agency nowadays.
"whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men" - I don't think thats true. If you look at the population pyramids of most Western countries, there is a male surplus until around age 60. And while the surplus isn't large, it tends to be largest in the 20 to mid-30s age range. Even in countries such as Russia, where you tend to presume there is a large female surplus because of alcoholism and what not, there is a male surplus until the late 20s. I actually can't think of ANY country where there is a female surplus in that age range.
Transport and logistics are important capacities for an invader. China is lacking in both areas and that is why I doubt China has the physical capacity to invade. If China invades Taiwan it will take months to mass troops. Taiwan will see this and call up their reserves so Taiwan will have at least 500k troops in the field. Assuming the standard 3 to 1 ratio for attackers that means China will need to place 1.5 million troops on the shores of Taiwan and therein lies the problem. At best, the PLA had a sea lift capacity of 50k (roughly 3% of what’s needed). So until China builds a lot more troop transports Xi is all hat and no cattle. The threat of invasion just isn’t real. Now let’s assume Xi could magically teleport 1.5 million PLA soldiers across 100 miles of ocean and land them on the beaches of Taiwan, then what? They could not get supplies to these troops so they would run out of ammo and be slaughtered. The milestones to look at when assessing the threat of China invading Taiwan are not hypersonic missiles or J-20s with underpowered engines and heavy airframes or submarines using 1980s era tech. The real milestones to watch for are how many troop transport ships they build and any reforms they are making to PLA logistics. Transport and logistics may not be as sexy as weapons systems but it’s impossible to invade another country without a strong competence in these areas.
A good analogy from the economical and political perspectives. What about historical, cultural and other factors? It’s certainly easy to tell my neighbor he doesn’t need his backyard when it is not my backyard.
she is basically projecting american behavior on to china. whenever she mentions china just swap it out with the u.s and you will have an accurate idea about why u.s doesnt' want china to reunite with taiwan
England and America have extremely similar cultures, both bonded by a shared language and historical identity. But they are unique, separate nations because they both ultimately have different geographical interests. China has no call to reabsorb Taiwan other than its Imperial history. If they want to play in the global world system, they need to let that go
Unfortunately most traditional cultural in China is erased due to cultural revolution but preserved in Taiwan. However, Taiwan has its own culture too due to different colonization from Dutch, China, and Japan. Taiwan was only been part of China for 200 years v the 5k of China, even then it was 40% controlled. Education system in Taiwan is very Japan and US, such as cleaning up in schools but its also very westernized compared to rest of Asia. Matsu goddess is popular in Taiwan because she protects the island from the water. This is less so found in China. This is why Chinese would call Taiwanese western dogs.
@@jamiel6405Well, Mazu is the god about the sea. China is quite large, so why do inland areas believe in Mazu? In China's coastal Fujian province, Mazu culture is quite prevalent. In fact, every year I get news about Mazu commemoration in Fujian Province. I don't know if you're a Chinese speaker. If you're not, you're receiving a one-sided message. If you are, then I believe that's the beauty of journalism.
She is good, and her style as a communicator is entertaining. Like many Western thinkers, her grasp of the shifting power blocks is, however, limited. Russia has India and China to help it through sanctions and China is a global enterprise so North Korea is not a good example.
India is not an ally of either Russia or China. They’re more than happy to play off the great powers against each other but they’re going to tie themselves to one or the other.
The notion of a power block which includes both China and India in any meaningful capacity is a Russian power fantasy. While the Indians are certainly more ambivalent towards Putin than the West, they are absolutely not neutral when it comes to China. Especially given they have overlapping territorial claims, and Chinese aid to Pakistan. Trying to ally with China and India simultaneously is Russia's mistake with Armenia and Azerbaijan on a much larger scale. You can't be allies with mortal enemies, you will inevitably have to alienate one. But more importantly, the Indians see the Americans as a more credible ally against the Chinese.
Go to read history Taiwan is part of China. The big classroom bully extending to international scene thinking only their system is the best. Why not tell your neighbors to live exactly the way you like them to live. It will be interesting to see the repercussions. China has its own system and evolved over 5000 years. How old is USA? Different countries have different rules and regulations which are best suited to run that country. What is freedom? Which country has total freedom? All are ruled by laws n regulations. Do you think you can rule China better?
A striking aspect of these so called China experts is that they comment on a China that is no longer there. Probably because they gained their expertise a long time ago. For modern China, increasingly run by Millennials and younger, Taiwan is a part of history, and not interesting. The 100 years of shame is something grandpa mutters about. Taiwan is seen as a bit of a rebellious province with good pop music and cute girls. You don't go to war over that.
If you combined Mein Kampf with the German history, you could accureately predict what was going to happen in the 1930's and 1940's. 'My Poles,' the Poles, did read Mein Kampf and knew the German history relevant to the ethnic Poles and decided in 1939 to go down fighting because they were realists. No! Polish resistence in 1939 was not about the fate of the Jews, but about the fate of the Poles.
China did leave Taiwan alone for many years as both sides benefited from trade and investment but now Taiwan is threatening to declare independence which is unacceptable for the Chinese.
Simple. Catalunya wants to be independent from Spain. Why can’t Spain just leave it alone and let it be independent?Simple! If Catalunya can be independent, why not Valencia? Why not Sevilla?😂😂You just apply the same logic thinking to China and the answer to the question why China couldn’t just let Taiwan alone is self-evident…😅
I find her slightly hypocritical given what America has done over the last six decades in particular. She talks about the global order and maritime law which is based on US hegemony. Let's reflect US actions in Vietnam and Cambodia as an example where they flattened the country. China and the world is fed up of American hypocrisy and Sarah's views epitomises a dying empire. One which can't rationally reflect on its own actions, irrespective of whether or not they felt their objective/ideological position was the correct one to take or not.
I enjoy listening to scholars from different parts of the world. However, those from the West often criticize other countries and make assumptions. They speak with a sense of superiority, acting as if their system is perfect and should be embraced by the rest of the world. Another commenter mentioned the problem of not understanding the culture of the nations these Western scholars are discussing. I find their portrayals of world issues lacking.
Her analysis is good on the surface but she overlooks one thing: the nationalism and populism is a global trend that is pushed by society, and the politicians amplify it to get a ride. This card works because the people desires it.
AS AN AMERICAN BUSINESS MAN WHO HAVE BEEN TO CHINA A COPLE OF TIMES. THE FIRST LAW OF COMPETETION IS KNOW YOUR COMPETETOR. 90% OF MY FELLOW AMERICANS HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT CHINA. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US AS A NATION TO EVEN COMPETE IN A CHANGING WORLD IF WE HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF OUR COMPETETORS
I work with Chinese manufacturers. They plan 5, 10, 20 years ahead, not just for an election cycle. They make decisions for purpose, not just for profit. They started shifting gears from low cost, low quality goods to high technology, high quality products. Most Americans and Europeans don't even try to understand this.
Best said than anyone, even dr. paine. China is no North Korea. North Korea never owned chunks of our national debt. Sanction is to try to change the rule of the competition. It take the wills and power that US hardly possesses.
Russia is poised to overtake Germany and Japan to become no. 4 economy of the world this year. They didn't do anything special, just that Germany and Japan tanking atm.
Honourable delegates of the Separatist council ,leader philosopher Count Dooku , speaks on behalf on Chinese consulate and lack of jobs and industrialization in United States of America, make America great again! Freedom in Iran ( geonosis ) ! And the Gaza strip , free Palestine ! Meme worthy ;) My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller Jd_miller@hotmail.com Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
if anything, sanction would leave china no choice but war. because china is different from russiaor or most countries. russia produces nothing and relies on importantation from the world. china produces everything but its economy relies on exportation to the world. china does not lack producer, it lacks consumers. if the world successfully impose a sanction to china, china would still have each massive productivity, and producing insurmountable amount of goods, but china would have no place to sell those goods or even use it. Then it would leave china the only option that is transforming into a war-time-like economy, and pouring those surplus productive force into military building to give people job, and eventually may find that the only way they can keep this model working is to expand its territory. it is the trade that is keeping china in leash.
Gross oversimpfication of the situation around Taiwan and generally in the world. If this is the best political analysis that the biggest military power in the world can produce (and, based on the comments, it seems that the Americans are impressed with her ideas) , if this childish black&white picture is the basis for the US foreign policy, the world is in a real trouble.
Seems to me that the CCP’s interest in Taiwan is very similar to Russia’s interest in Ukraine…Both parties want to create a geographical buffer between their border and their adversary…If China were to take Taiwan, the CCP could close the Taiwan straight permanently to the US Pacific fleet and its allies…it would then be able to choke out the Indo Pacific allies of the West like Singapore, Philippines, etc…then focus northward to isolate Japan and South Korea. The US Pacific fleet cannot allow this to happen.
No, cutting off Taiwan Strait will basically force South Korea and Japan to capitulate or be sanctioned by China economically. The only effect on SEA is if China doesn't trade with them anymore.
I am looking at a frigging globe right now. Passing east or west of Taiwan is unimportant to the Korean or Japanese economy. I think that New Mexico and Texas should become independent countries.
@@danielbecker4365 why don't you look at a map of maritime trade routes? Do you know ships follow pre determined routes because otherwise shipping costs will skyrocket because of weather at sea? Why do you think ports are built in geographical shielded areas rather than just some random place on the coast?
Simple counter argument is that China doesn't want to be the employee of the US. However much benefit has China gained working within the system that is created by the US that benefit the US the most, China can do better working in a system not created and controlled by the US. A person who quite their job and started and successful business would surly get what I am saying!
Why do you hate China so much? The last time, they did their own thing was from the 1950s-70s. That was so bad for the whole of China. Afterwards China got rich producing stuff to sell to the rest of the world. Why stop something that has brought so much money to China? YOU have NO idea about business obviously. ...
Before China joined the US led order, they were trying to make steel in backyard furnaces. Look at China before Deng's reforms. That is where China is heading.
This lady talks about sovereignty when her country occupies many nations with military bases and her ancestors likely took away the soverignty of native american indian lands. Try lecturing others after you've returned colonised lands and occupying other nations.
Her argument about sovereignty is a bad one ; all countries accept one china policy & we saw what happened when in karabkh everyone was in agreement that it was Azerbaijani territory & no-one intervened
Just as Beijing never has ruled Taipei, Taipei has never ruled Beijing. In the Taiwan case we are talking about a sane democracy that wants de facto independence.
@@jensstergard9380that’s a BS argument. Any new challenger to power in a civil war could be said to have “never ruled”. But that doesn’t make the territory not controlled by that party an independent country.
@@xsu-is7vqTaiwan practically is an independent country today. The only thing missing is the official status of independence. The Taiwan issue could be simply solved by China accepting what Taiwan is today.
This is delusional nonsense. SO LONG AS Taiwan is not prodded by the USA into declaring independence THEN the CCP is content to wait this issue out. They will use diplomacy (look it up, woman) and wait out Taipei because the mainland (correcty) has concluded that they will inevitably leave this rebel province in the dust, at which point the Taiwanese will beg to rejoin the mainland. The ONLY reason that the CCP will drop that diplomatic track and go kinetic on Taiwan is if meddling outsiders (ahem, the USA) tells the government in Taipei to declare independence. At that point the 1949 civil war is on again, and it will end very,very quickly. This woman is simply delusional. The only choices are these: 1) the mainland waits out the rebels in Taipei or 2) the USA provokes the mainland into abandoning diplomacy because of outside interference. That's it. That's all there is,and what this woman is espousing self-delusional claptrap. Nothing more. No less. 4:24
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone! She's a sex slave , no justice:( Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't. Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down. My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves. CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance. Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts. The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar. Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self. Remember they out number 10 to one. Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire. Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young. My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal. May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon. Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified. May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail. My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life. She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread. She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen. She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen. 236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller Jd_miller@hotmail.com Jennifer luxmeows her old FB Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
The argument is one sided at best. U have little idea about why China wants to reunite with Taiwan. U need to consider geopolitics, economic and military aspects.
And why are such knowledgeable women not being placed in the forefront of our society? She clearly has such a deep understanding and is such an effective teacher. Im glad to have stumbled upon videos with her in them.
@@EgbertWilliams Or in the case of Trump and the Banana Republicans that he endorses for political office, the bottom of the barrel ... Not the bottom on the inside of the barrel, but the dirt and crud on the barrel's outside that's infested with fermenting pathogens.
Nationalism does not need the Communist Party to express itself. A democratic China would not be indifferent to the status of Taiwan. The United States, democratic as they may be, have nevertheless invaded many territories and countries, and they have, I remind you, conquered vast Mexican provinces, Pacific islands, Puerto Rico, etc.
If a truly democratic China is a reality, then who would worry about Taiwan is part of China? Maybe Taiwanese people would vote to join the republic peacefully and no one would be against it. The core of conflict is that Taiwan is a member of this international family of trading and living community whose members are mainly following the same value system and way of doing business. China was admitted into this "big" family in early 2000s (joining WTO) and has grown big and more powerful. But the expectation of Chinese peacefully transitions into a society with the same value system and way of doing business has miserably failed. Then you have this powerful guy living in the same Neiborhood as yours but with different mindset of things who conflicts with you on daily basis, especially some minor "weakling" like Taiwan being "bullied" by him all the time. Then what kind of option would the community have to choose? Naturally to expel the not-fall-in-line guy out of the community is the choice - so "de-bundling" between the "western" world and China is undergoing. Have you ever had any deep conversation with a Chinese nationalist in your life? I have plenty and let me tell you, in their minds they despise the western way of living (mainly the culture and political ideology of freedom) and plan to destroy your world once capable. So many Chinese still believe the democracy even in ideal state is the "primitive" society for barbarians, and authoritarian/dictatorship is the evolution end of human civilization. They admire the strongmen like Chairman Mao, Stalin, even Hilter. They can be kind and caring persons in daily life but support an oppressive regime without hesitation. A tourist trip in China won't help you understand the people living there at all. The minority of Chinese with the same value system as the West are oppressed and hidden to protect themselves.
Netflex has a good serie called "How to become a tyrant". All of them have the same theme that is how to maintain control and the best way to "unite" the people is to find an "external cause". Xi and Putin are doing exactly what the Netflex serie has shown.
The US bears a responsibility to aid in the defense of democratic and peace-loving Taiwan against any attack by the aggressive and authoritarian Beijing regime. This duty is particularly significant in light of historical events, such as the U.S. intervention that led to Taiwan's abandonment of its nuclear weapon programs on two occasions, notably in the 1980s just before Taiwan could successfully develop one.
