With Naval War College Historian Sarah C.M. Paine Full video: • Sarah C. M. Paine - WW... Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/073V... Transcript: www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/sarah...
You may not want to appease one, but you also don't want to actively provoke one. One needs some awareness of how the other side is processing the world. You could hardly say that the US was being delusional during the Cuban Missile Crisis... It's not worth it to let your enemies gain that kind of position.
This lady is fantastic, I didn't know anything about her 'till a couple of days ago. I would want her as my advisor of foreign policy if I was the President of the US
One can argue that appeasement is more likely to cause a war than showing strength. Ask Neveile Chamberlain about what a signed peace agreement by letting an authoritarian government have its way was worth.
If Russia takes Ukraine, Putin will move on Poland. Poland has bombers that can reach Moscow. How will Poland respond to Russian troops crossing into Poland?
Chamberlain was in a much more severe bind than people realize. 1. Britain wasn’t ready for all out war(Germany wasn’t either but they were ahead of Britain) and more importantly the Dominions would not support War. Canada was lukewarm at best, so they may not join, and S. Africa and Australia were completely opposed(see Gallipoli if you want to know why). So Chamberlain went to the peace talks with his hands tied behind his back he could be the PM that appeased Hitler or the PM that shattered the British Empire. He chose the former.
My girlfriends dad is from Belarus. He fled as soon as the Soviet Union fell, and he has given me a much greater appreciation for the tenacity and sheer grit of our Eastern European brothers, a grit I haven’t seen in very many demographics of traditional Western peoples and a grit I think we should absolutely appreciate here in America and the rest of the West. I would happily, happily fight alongside them if war were to break out. I hope Ukraine wins this war, they’ve proven themselves to be incredibly opposed to Russian aggression and have shown their willingness to fight and figure out creative solutions to adapt to the modern battlefield, and I hope we can continue to support them.
You should go and fight now. Why wait? Quick wile your life is still worth 1 dollar and Ukrainian 1 penny. Does it feel good your life is worth that much more?
@@zivaradlovacki2666 It's a turn of phrase! Anyone with a sane mind, an understanding of greedy human nature and even a remote knowledge of pre and post WW2 era history does not want Ukraine to founder. When she says "pennies on the dollar"...she is referring to the MOST pragmatic and logical solution to Ukraine's ( and, IMHO, the world's)....immediate need! Don't take everything so literally! Think realistically, not ideologically. In essence, grow up!
2 reasons why Putin will not use nukes 1. The few allies he has will run for the hills, self preservation kicks in 2. Everyone in the chain of command will become a threat. They all have family.
The question is not 'will Putin use nukes' (he probably would rather than lose), the question is 'will the officers of the nuke force follows such an order' (knowing the meaning of M.A.D. for them, their families and Russia).
3. He has no nukes. His weapons are many decades old, maintained by an absolutely corrupt military. Image you are a corrupt general.. how much of the maintenance money goes into maintenance on weapons that are never supposed to be fired?
Spot on. Supporting Ukraine is the most sensible thing to do both strategically, economically and morally. Pennies on the dollar and much better effect than any campaign during the war on terror.
Estimated deaths of 500000+, 115 Billion dollars spent so far and you say pennies on the dollar? Holy fuck man nothing about this is sensible, and that's assuming that just like the war on terror which was a massive failure that this campaign won't be one too.
Better? Current every missle that is send to Ukraine is a missle that cannot be used in Taiwan. And Ukraine is a country that will never in future recover even if they somehow take Donbas back. Their demographics will never work, and too many have left Ukraine already.
@@atishayritulpatwawe can build more missiles and frankly, there’s no way for china to really have a successful invasion to get a toe hold on the island in the next 10 years. And Taiwan has a vested interest in repelling a Chinese invasion.
@@mattgriewahn8554 missiles are not 1939 tanks, they can’t be build within a day. Russian took two years to ramp up their production, and Americans would take the same. And Americans have not started to ramp up their production.
Pennies on the dollar. The most entitled statement an American could ever say. In your smugness, you just implied that the lives of Ukrainian soldiers are worth pennies to you.
@@TDH_1962 ah you meant to the nuclear power? Ok, Cuba maybe? I don't think Ukraine being Independent from Russia poses existential threat to Russia. And if it does, that is their own internal problem.
@@TDH_1962 yes another one believing groups of Russian speaking Ukrainians magically pulled out army worth of tanks and assault rifles to start a rebellion against Ukraine with no help from Russian army direct involvement. You are a lost cause.
I love how Professor Paine dismisses "stupid," because, "you write off their understanding." WOW, great comment!!! Most people have a logic for their behaviour. It need not make sense to most, but there is a logic/reason/understanding in their mind, disorganized as it may be. It is "logical" from their half-assed perspective! It may be twisted, short sighted or just plain hubris, but it is a reasonable position from their POV. We can disagree, think they're, "nuts," but it is logical from their perspective. Thanks for the insight, Prof. Paine and Darkwesh! 😊
Great guest, great question. However, I have some criticism about form. I understand the wish to shorten video, but having cuts mid-sentence just breaks the flow and makes the content more difficult to understand. Please don't cater to the mainstream mentality of social media.
@@zivaradlovacki2666 we found you in poverty, developed the industrial revolution which enriched us, then shared those technologies with the rest of the world who are struggling to catch up due to endemic corruption, bad civics and bad ethics.
No, no, what Russia has *_described_* as provocation doesn't mean that they see it that way. They react to actions by the West *as deterrence* _that they don't want._
The Ukraine is this centuries Sudetenland. Surrendering the Ukraine will only lead to more conflict not less. Just as the Munich Betrayal of 1938/39 did not lead to peace but war.
@@cedricvogt2576 Enough similarities to make the comparison. Hitler made the excuse for taking Sudetenland to protect ethnic Germans , Putin claims to want to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. Hitler had political opponents killed or put into concentration camps, Putin has political opponents killed or put into Gulags, Hitler wanted and empire, Putin wants to re-establish one. Hitler was diagnosed as a psychopath, so is Putin. Only difference is the political ideology they use to commit their crimes, like Hitler and Stalin were more similar than different. In reality NAZI fascism and communism are two sides of the same coin.
@@carlanderson7618 dont be so intellectually lazy. Hitler was a mad man who did not last longer than a decade to launch a huge world war. Putin on the other hand is widely regarded to be one of the best politicians (by Ray Dalio etc.)… he is in charge for decades and did not have any plans to launch a war, he wanted the same kind of military operation that worked in Georgia in 2008. He doesnt even have the ressources to conquer Ukraine, how should he attack more countries? Just fear mongering out of nonsense.
@@carlanderson7618 one major difference is that Nazi Germany was a superpower, who were able to defeat Poland and France in a matter of weeks, while Putin hasn't been able to defeat Ukraine in over two years and counting.
@@traitretrudeau2367 You’re right, no one should ever watch anything other than debates. I apologize. Next time I’ll be sure to check with you and get your approval before I watch anything else.
Despite Putin's hysterical squealing about "the collective West," no one really wants Russia to cease to exist. That absolutely is not what this war is about, despite %ucker Carslon and the other paid propagandists' untiring efforts to present it as such to their semi-literate totalitarian-minded audiences: retirees in rural Russia, a few fringe neonazi parties across Europe and of course the MAGA "I love the poorly educated" cult in America. No, this war is simply about the civilized world finally putting a stop to a deranged tyrant's brutal 19th-century imperialism. Nothing more and nothing less. Russia already is *quite literally the biggest empire on Earth!* Well, let them have it and do soul searching... I hear the Russian soul is great - the question is, will the Russians themselves someday find it?
"You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war." - Winston Churchill on Chamberlain appeasing Hitler, before WW2
I worked with various engineers and technical people from former East Germany. Some were fully indoctrinated and could not change and some left. No one every had anything good to say about soviets.
can you tell me a single way putin is doubling down? it'S the US doubling down with no back down plan lol, this woman would get destroye din an actual debate
@@traitretrudeau2367 It's hard to tell anything about this conflict due to the dishonest media. Do you remember how "sick and dying" Putin was?? Where the hell did that come from? Media lies.
Whenever someone states that the West provoked Russia by expanding Nato I ask them how they would like living in a buffer state. I did, I still recall Operation Danube when I was a kid in 68 when Russia and the rest of the Warsaw Pact marched into my country with 800,000 troops because the Kremlin didn't like the shift towards a bit of freedom from the Czech govt. Hungary in 56, Poland, the Baltic countries everyone joined as soon as they possibly could. I must say Sarah Paine is really well informed on the topic and the biggest takeway is that while the West has learned that this kind of war is completely unproductive and everyone ends up worse off (this was shown in 1918, and 45) it is so much better for everyone to grow and trade and work together. Its not like the medieval wars where you take over land and end up with serfs who will give you the wealth. So much of the wealth nowadays is not in land but in the people. If Russia were to invade California and take Cupertino and Apple hq they would not gain much because the people would just leave, if Apple is worth some 2.8trillion it is in the people that work in it - not the land. So Russia gaining mostly destroyed and largely de-populated parts of eastern Ukraine- their land bridge to Crimea but at what cost. It has become an international pariah, it's lost its largest customer the EU for much of its natural gas (China will never pay as much and it would take a long time to build pipelines to ship to China. It's also lost a lot of young talented people with money who fled during the first year, not to mention a lot of young men who are dying or getting disabled - for a country with a demographic disaster. Also a GDP of 1.5trillion, less than Italy or Canada. As Sarah points out the business laws in Russia not only make it hard to run a business - it is intentionally set up that way so that at any given time the klepto state could control or seize the business. There is an issue with one man dictator ship with no real succession - and as anyone has seen the Death of Stalin - there is often chaos and a major turnaround when the leader dies. And there is no comfortable retirement for Putin. (Or for that matter Xi Jinping).
Yeah no one would like to stay in a buffer state perhaps, you may not even like Putin or Russia; but NATO have always been provacateur supreme. Just ask the entire Eastern Hermisphere. There is a reason why most people in the Eastern hemsiphere are more sympathetic towards Russia.
Imagine russian nukes in Mexico. How would US react?? Nato should have been dissolved alongside the soviet union. US withdraw from 2 major missile agreements unilateraly. The Russians are freaking out
@@vitorlopes2064 hey the guy who gave Nato its purpose is Putin himself. Even made Sweden and Finland join. See its nothing to do with US expansionism, every one who wanted to join Nato did so willingly the first chance they could. Everyone of those countries including mine had been invaded or occupied by Russia in the past.
@@peterkratoska4524 after the fall of the soviet union NATo became just a big US weapons sale plattform and instrument of control. Lets not forget what nato did in the middle east and yogoslavia… was it ” defensive”?
I disagree w/ Sarah that "calling somebody stupid is writing off their reasoning" as why Putin won't use nukes. I think he will and I agree w/ Dwarkesh that we cannot simply believe he won't because *WE* fail to conceive a strategic return if *WE* were in his shoes. THIS IS ALSO NOT WARRANT TO LET HIM HAVE WHAT HE WANTS, but to clarify and illustrate a serious mistake we often make in the West: We try to put others into our own understanding, rather than vice-versa
The most stupid implication she made is that Russia is going towards North Korea. Which is just sheer decietful propaganda with someone from her qualification.
@@lightforce4604 Is Russia more or less authoritarian now than they were 15 years ago? Is Russia more or less isolated now than they were 15 years ago? I think that's what she is referring to when she said Russia is going towards N Korea.
As the 'special military operation' has dragged on and the world has gotten a look at the true status of Russia's military infrastructure, it is a real question what the status, viability, and even existence of their nuclear stockpile. Weapons have a halflife... the fuel and launch facilities deteriorate. Maintenance is costly and extensive in scope. How much has been looted?
Really, ask this question is it in Americas best interest to defend one dictatorship the size of Texas (Ukraine) if it means destabilizing a continent sized power (Russia) into civil war. Look how much the Syrian civil war and infighting in Iraq after our intervention in those countries, or us meddling in Iran before the revolution has upset the middle east. Do we really want an unstable Russia? Is another Russian revolution/or civil war in our interest? How radical will they become after another round of revolution/civil war, look how the treaty of Versailles (no one marched into Berlin) which was in modern day terms just sanctions and guilt led to Nazi Germany and the evils they unleashed upon humanity. In a post communist Russian age with an ever present threat of communist China, is it really smart to push Russia into Chinas arms and into their camp. Or, is it wiser to set clear boundaries with but treat Russia as an equal to work together in the future in surrounding China and North Korea with Western states. Or should we risk a destabilized Russia which will inevitably cause more destabilizing in surrounding areas due to their size and influence over Ukraine which is not a real democracy and poses no benefit to the American order. Just a thought.
@@jacobasselta2419 Think harder. You first attempt (ever?) Is sorely lacking in intelligence. Hopefully, (for all concerned) if you keep trying, you may get it one day. Can’t debunk each and every one of your Phuhuqed up beyond belief assumptions, because,…….they are without basis in reality. But your valiant effort to make them seem correct,……yeah, that failed too. Your caretaker must be so……🤦🏾♂️
Thank you, this is 100% spot on and needs to be said and heard over and over until we don't have any more 'Marjorie Traitor Green' type characters in the world.
Because Marjorie Taylor Green disagrees with you doesn’t make her a traitor. A lot of people are asking the same questions she is, and I don’t see why that isn’t legit. The word “traitor” is being overused a lot today, sort of like “racist”. Eventually, if it keeps up, it will become meaningless…
in general, the West has always been the cause of wars, and the United States used nuclear weapons in Japan, and also planned to use them in Korea and Vietnam, but pressure from the Soviets stopped them 🤫
I find it interesting that many of the same people that hate Putin and the Russian model seem to be willing to give China a pass. I do believe Ms. Paine is correct about using the Ukrainians as proxies for our troops but I am perplexed by the fact we seem afraid to offer the same assistance to Taiwan.
People have to understand, Nato's new members not only wanted to join, but in the case of Finland, the government was _pressured in to it_ by the people. This wasn't the elite choosing to join, this was a popular cause by a huge majority of Finns.
What a great speaker this woman is. I agree with her on the nuke threat. Putin has all the power, money, women, and palaces he could ever want. 30 minutes after he launched a nuke he'd either be a grease stain on Red Square, or Tsar of his nuclear bunker in Siberia....and not much else.
A lot of important stuff being said here, but one question that keeps coming up as I listen to this person chat. She is really focused on how business and entrepreneurs are her main focus.....
That we don't decide how Russians interpret things. And it wouldn't be right to deem eastern Europeans worthless, and sacrifice them for it. Also that it's unlikely.
😅 It’s always the 1930s before World War Two for you global intervenionalists. We are always at risk of being next Neveile Chamberlain if we don’t intervene. The adversary is always the next Evil Super Villain. (20 years ago it was Saddam Husain; today it’s Putin) The Evil Super Villain is always harboring super evil plans to take over the world or something. And we American citizens are always on the hook to pay for it.
But you would have ignored both hitler and Japan if they hadn’t attacked you directly. I don’t have illusions in western democracy. They will sacrifice us here in Ukraine if they believe that Russia will stop here and won’t go any further.
Not trying to defend North Korea But we do have active sanctions and trade embargo with them which may have something to do with their starvation problem.
7:16 This only works so long as the American empire is strong. With the formation of BRICs and competing systems against the Dollar, those sanctions might not mean as much anymore.
In 2004, Romania and 5 other Countires I believe, might be 4 don't quote me on that. Anyways all four joined at once and I believe it was called the "Treaty of Peace". Everyone is sick of war
Putin always wants to get more. He sees 'collective' West is weak and bureaucratic. Therefore we, in my mind, need to keep helping Ukraine. Otherwise, he will conclude that he was right all alone.
Something does need to be done about countries having primitive systems. But the nuclear escalation risk is a legit problem. Mostly, there was inadequate effort to "actively" work with the Russians in moving them in a positive direction. When primitive systems are the status quo, the leaders aren't going to know how to improve them... Just as US politicians don't get obvious things about improving US systems. Politicians are rarely suited to designing and improving systems.
I doubt we’ll ever really have the chance, but I would really like to hear a long-form discussion about Ukraine between Sarah Paine, John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs. I could be wrong but it seems that Sarah Paine comes from a school of thought more rooted in conventional thinking based on historical analogs - but expense a great deal of effort to understand foreign perspectives. John Mearheimer seems to come from a perspective of great power politics and Jeffrey Sachs personally had a great deal of hands on first person experience working with the Russians during and after the collapse of the Soviet Union (and the Chinese for that matter). I think they all have valid and very valuable insights and I would be interested to hear them navigate their disagreements. Of particular interest, I would like to hear Sarah Paine’s thoughts regarding American activities in Ukraine before the start of the war, etc. One of the ultimate questions is, was the US/West justified to meddle in Ukraine. There are lots of lazy emotional opinions about it floating around and so I’d be interested to hear true scholars discuss the matter - not so much as a debate - but as an exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of their different perspectives. The reason I would like to hear these three, is that I have a great deal of respect for John Mearsheimer not infrequently attesting that he does his best but could be wrong in his theories. I have a great deal of respect for Sarah Paine showing no hesitation about saying ‘I don’t know’ or citing that a topic simply falls outside of her expertise. And Jeffrey Sachs has always been modest, cited his first person experience and has always exhaustively fought, while working with the US as well as other governments - for diplomatic solutions which preserve human life. And I think all three demonstrate exceptionally good faith when engaging with those with whom they disagree. Barring that and in the meantime, I’m definitely going to watch more of Sarah Paine’s interviews and lectures.
Very well said! I too would relish such a discussion. Much respect to all the scholars you’ve mentioned… a real “marketplace of ideas” with respect, honesty and humility… to build understanding… this is so needed in the world.
America did no go to war with afghanistan. They were fighting terrorists im the country of afghanist which the country supported. Same thing in syria. America did go to war with iraq which is true and i will admit did not so good things.
False equivalence. 1. American war in vietnam is equivalent to russian assitance to syrian regime. 2. American war in afghanistan - 9/11 was a response to an attack. 3. American war with iraq- sadam started it with war on neighbours who were american allies. This narrative is the "muah murica bad" which removes agency on other parties in the world stage (racism of low espectations).
@@puraLusaKuwait did actually steal 50 Billion in oil from sovereign territory of Iraq and the United States gave the green light before Saddam attacked. But later the invasion in the new millennium was on knowingly false pretenses and they prevented Antibiotics for reaching Iraq. Lately United States has pretended that just crazy people in Yemen are attacking US shipping. When you deliberately create a famine by preventing imports of grain properly paid for to feed civilians people tend to hate you. Oh and preventing insecticide for the purpose of not having a plague of locusts was a nice touch.
@@puraLusa 1.not really, it was more like supporting british in the american war for independence Vietnam was a colony of France, imperialist France, we-consider-your-culture-and-religion-inferior-and-will-civilize-you-by-force France, your-resources-are-ours France, it was also really badly done, the guy americans put in charge of southern vietnam was a catholic monk who had no desire or drive for leadership, and was a symbol of the forced conversion of the people to christianity. Nothern Vietnam became communist because capitalists were fighting them and communists were willing to support them, not the other way around. 2.taliban had nothing to do with 9/11, in fact similarly to the vietnamese, the taliban formed to oppose soviet occupation of afghanistan, and to them (and many afghani) americans were just another foreign empire invading their homeland and forcing their values and culture on them, also: here we built your village a well, surely that makes up for a third of it being destroyed by our bombing runs? Also the war in Syria? it is one thing to fight terrorists, it is another to have an entire military base sit there and watch as an ancient city full of history and culture dating back well before Christ, is being bombed by the terrorist you are supposed to fight until eventually the Syrian military is forced to abandon it, to those very terrorists you are supposed to fight, all the while a conversation leaks, where one the generals in charge of the war says something along the lines of: let's see if this forces the syrian government to the negotiating table. Which by the way, pick a side, is the Syrian government a brutal regime with no care for it's people and supposedly commits genocide on them, or are they going to accept american terms (because that is what negotiation means let's be frank) to save their people Let's not forget that Isis is destroyed, Trump ordered the pentagon generals to withdraw from Syria (which they PRETENDED to do, but not really, to keep the troops there until Biden came in) where a third of the country is occupied, oh look, 100% of the oil fields in Syria are in that occupied region, and an American company is drilling the oil I have this sinking feeling if I read more into the Iraq war I would find out it was nowhere near as black and white either
@@cathulionetharn5139 have no pacience for a long essay based on a false permisse. Vietnam - france had left - had a democratic gov in the south and a commie one in the north - south asked usa for help. Syria - france had left - socialist gov in southwest - several factions all over (civil war) - asked russia for help. So, my example fits perfectly and doesn't need false permisse and mental ginmastics.
This really ignores 2014 to the day Russia invaded. She was probably shocked Russia invaded based on how she's reasoning. Choosing standard of living over culture is how Americans think..... it's not necessarily the priorities of other countries/cultures/people.
Seriously? She described Russian power dynamics VERY accurately.. she does it EVERY time she talks about how Eastern Europe has essentially been driven into the arms of Nato because of past Russian aggression. Russian behavior both recently and in the past is proof they are not to be trusted. Don't confuse Russian maskirova with reality. I can absolutely guarantee that Ms. Paine doesn't confuse those two. How you missed this is well beyond me.
It wasn't an American strategy? It was a German one? It even has a name, Wandel durch Handel. I love how stupid people think it's a uniquely American thing to be domestically selfish, or oblivious to differences in cultural attitudes or priorities.
Truth be told people in Eastern Europe have despised the Russians for centuries, they've fought loads of wars over the centuries. It really doesn't have anything to do with the US and we need to be careful about getting involved but that ship has sailed. What this war is really about is the Russian oil, natural gas as well as the resources of Central Asia. From what I see Russia is winning the economic war and the US position isn't really feasible in the long run. Keeping Eastern European countries as vassal states has no economy to it for the US or them. It makes sense for Western Europe but they don't have the resources to support them.
As Niccolò Machiavelli said in his banned book "The Prince" remove the ruling class leave everything else alone culture language religion and there will be an easy transition of power. Fight with the people not mercenaries who chase money and are not loyal and who have no ties to the land
I hope the Blue Jacket was simply playing devils advocate here..the only way how to deter a nuclear power from a strike is to have your own. Other solutions is a naive fantasy just like that blue hue. Love that lady though - nailed it.
That was a very informative discussion. Thanks for sharing. Putin must be stopped so his heir pauses to consider other options and the probability and cost of success. Putin won't back down because he knows nobody will attack him when he's depleted his warfighting capabilities.
How could the US not support Ukraine when it’s the locals doing all the fighting! Think how many Americans fought for Afghanistan. Where were the locals? Iraq? Ukraine is a just war fought by Ukrainians, who have paid a huge price.
