How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin | Endgame  

The problem with all peace thinking: it only works if both parties really want peace. And sometimes peace is just a mean for someone to rebuild its forces to strike even harder. And then you DONT win peace because you are drawn into an endless war the enemy can pause (peace) when he sees fit.

This is the best interview with Stephen Kotkin that I have watched. Thanks for giving him the room to speak, so many interviewers fail to do that.

I watch every video featuring Kotkin that RU-vid recommends because I learn something new every time. This time, I learned how he became the historian he is today.

"Luck" favors the prepared mind.Kotkin is an absolute beast of dedication, he probably knows more than any other westener about Russia,

I never pass an opportunity to listen to the thoughts of Stephen Kotkin. I don't always agree completely but I always find his insight highly enlightening.

*Stephen Kotkin* is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He has been teaching for more than three decades at Princeton University, and currently holds the position of Professor of History & International Affairs. 00:00 Intro *Intellectual Influences* 02:20 - His mother’s influence on his interest in history 03:25 - Meandering education trajectory : STEM to literature to history _“Accident (and) contingency are really important for the way that I write history since that’s how I came into the history field myself.”_ -Stephen Kotkin 07:33 - Kotkin’s expertise journey : He focused on France prior to his interest in Russia *Why Russia?* 09:55 - What hooked Kotkin into Russian studies? • The entry point : Czech _“It was nothing like the stereotypes that we had grown up in the US about the system (communism).”_ • Kotkin was impressed by the socio-physiological aspect of the communist society _“It was this fabulous, entrepreneurialism, and resistance to communist way of life, and try to create your own way of life inside the limitation of being stuck with the censorship and the lack of travel, permission, and everything else. But the people were very inventive.”_ • [11:42] Influence from inspirational teachers : Jüger Habermas, Jaques Derrida, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Michel Foucault. • [12:12] Foucault’s influence on Kotkin’s study 🔗 Faoucault’s Theory on the ‘Microphysics of Power’ link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-56153-4_4 • [14:13] Kotkin’s Accelerated-Russian teacher : Sergey Kasatkin • [17:09] Series of serendipities _“You have to be ready to be lucky."_ 18:09 - Problem of Big Countries _“Big countries are so big. They can get self-absorbed in their own story.”_ • [21:09] Americanization Delusion *Curing Historical Amnesia🏆* 22:13 - Training empathy by sending youths abroad : A case in point from Mr Kotkin’s family 27:59 - Curing historical amnesia : It’s on us (history teachers), not on them (the youth). 29:24 - Supply-Demand of History _“History never tells you what the future is going to be-nobody can’t do that. But what history can tell you is that the present's not going to last; that things are going to change because that's happened many many times over.”_ 30:56 - Intervening the Future 34:10 - Economics & Geopolitics *Winning the Peace* 36:13 - Winning the Peace _"It's not the war per se. It's the peace that you should focus on so.”_ • [37:16] US-Afghanistan • [37:39] Iran-Irak • [37:48] US-Vietnam 38:31 - Stephen Kotkin : _You can not only win a war and lose the peace, you can lose a war and win the peace._ 38:51 - Defining a better victory for Ukraine : _“joining the West”_ _“Ukraine getting into the European Union and Ukraine getting some sort of security guarantee.”_ • Why? 1. Domestic institution transformation 2. Security guarantee 3. Economic development • [42:13] Stephen Kotkin : _Ukraine needs Ukraine. Russia doesn't need Ukraine-they have Russia already._ 43:09 - An example of ‘victory’ from North-South Korea 44:28 - NATO & Bilateral+ 47:12 - Crimea Dilemma _“If you do try to take it back and you're successful, what does that give you? It gives you the a bad choice of the necessity, maybe, of ethnic cleansing. You have two and a half million ethnic Russians in Crimea now. Are you going to remove them all in an ethnic cleansing? Otherwise, you have 2 and a half million Russians inside your state who might not want to live inside.”_ *US’ True Power* 50:58 - US’s pivot from ME to Asia and its impact _“The Europeans came much much closer to the Americans on China policy.”_ _“Ukraine gave Europe a gift; it gave the United States a gift, which was a revival of the institutional West which turns out to be really important for American-China policy.”_ 54:57 - Stephen Kotkin : _The West is not a geographic term, it is an institutional term … that's a club of like-minded, rule of law, open economies, open societies, democracies._ 56:38 - Sharing the Planet with China🔥 _“I agree that we have to share the planet with China … The point is what are the terms of sharing the planet? … And I want to have leverage to negotiate those terms so that we can defend our values and institutions while we're sharing the planet.”_ 59:50 - Gita Wirjawan : _With the benefit of hindsight, how do you think the United States could have done it differently to make the two largest countries or economies in the world share the planet a little bit better?_ 1:00:45 - US True Power : It’s Friends and Allies⭐ _“A bilateral US-China won't work to our advantage because we need to have the [strain] of our friends and partners taken into consideration.”_ 1:03:25 - Middle East sgpp.me/eps174notes

As much as I respect Kotkin, he has been entirely wrong on ukraine. Now it's winning the peace, because he predicted a different outcome 2 years ago.

So cool that Joe Pesci is this into history.

With isolationism becoming more and more prevalent in the US, I don't see Americans going out more, but actually becoming even more enclosed.

I have no doubt that the professor would have been a great doctor but I'm glad he turned out to be one of the great historians of all time. Great job by Gita too!

"The present is not going to last." The quote of the century!

Steven Kotkin is for me by far the most interesting historian to listen to. All those days and nights I spent listening and watching his talks and lectures on RU-vid. Stalin, World War 2, Sphere of Influence, Eurasia... Really the best. Even if we have some disagreements, Steven Kotkin is the best for me.

Appreciate any opportunity to listen to Stephen Kotkin! Thank you.

"Win the peace". That´s a healthy perspective. It´s also good to hear Prof. Kotkin talk about the western paradigm and the ideology about it. However, I have one caveat... The capture of liberal institutions by corporations that have incentives that "may not always" align with that which is good for society. We have to be wary of that - "the west" comes with "baggage"... Thanks for initiating a great conversation Pak Gita! 🙏👍

How did you get into history? Why Russia specifically? Um, I have no idea. Maybe it had something to do with the intelligence agents who were recruiting me. (Serge Kassatkin, etc.)

Professor Kotkin is the greatest historian of our time. period.

Terima kasih pak Gita..... Berulang-ulang saya tonton vidoe ini, sekalian belajar bahaa Inggris..

In Australia we went through a period called the History Wars. What history is taught is a powerful influencer on the idea of your nation. As a result politicians and interest groups try to control what history is taught.

I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.

Intersting detail, he uses the word "invasion" to the Russia and Ukraine situation and avoids it when talking about Vietnam, Afghanistan etc.

I'm probably the world's biggest Kotkin fan.

"The math I did was like poetry, because there are no numbers in it." Lol there's a (probably apocryphal) quote by Hilbert discussing a student who left mathematics to become a poet, where Hilbert supposedly said "Yes, he will do much better as a poet, he lacked the creativity for mathematics."

thank you, Pak Gita, for giving us the opportunity to listen to such an insightful lecture from Prof. Kotkin

If these people had a good grasp of human history and it's "peace", they would find that peace always comes after the belligerent is completely and unconditionally defeated in war.

Wonderful interview, thank you. Stephen Kotkin is so profoundly knowledgeable, and always manages to be straightforward, funny, and warm.

Steven Kotkin is a pleasure to listen to. And over and above this he wise. Not merely smart. Wise. He sees connections between people, countries, and ideologies, and articulates why these things are important. I’ve listened to many of his talks and lectures on RU-vid, some more than once. If I was President of the USA I would want him as key advisor. But he’d likely say no thanks. He has led a life of committment for over 30 years of educating. It’s his passion.

What a wide ranging intellect. I parrticularly enjoyed @21:43 "You got to get out in the world, live in foreign countries, learn foreign languages. You got to live & learn to think like the people who are not Americans." I have read elsewhere that "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow mindedness."

I like listening to Mr. Kotkin. I like how he explains his thinking.

The conversation brings fresh new information on the shifting world order. For me, it‘s fascinating to hear the world conflicts from different points of view. Not only from a politician, but also from the historian point of view. It’s great that everyone in the world with internet connection can gain knowledge from just a click away. As an Indonesian, it also gives me hope that digital education reaches people who used to have no access to this! Indeed, if we want to understand the present, we have to look at the past and learn from it!

Please host a debate/conversation between Professor Kotkin and Professor Mearsheimer 🙏

I After listening to Kontkin, I was surprised: how can one be a professional historian and at the same time be such an ideologized person. There are probably other interviews where he appears in a more professional light.

Kotkin is a great storyteller -- no small part of his success as a historian. I like his 'borough' accent.

Smart guy great show hits the topic from all sides it's a pleasure to watch any presentation that features him as speaker

clarity and profoundly compelling insights into huge, complex histories and ideas that i would never otherwise be exposed to or understand. Thank you Dr. Kotkin for everything.

What a treasure professor Kotkin is.

What a joy to listen to. Everybody's favorite wise grandfather. He is a pillar of western enlightenment.

I appreciate your show. I’m glad I discovered this link. I’ll be revisiting your channel in the future. Stephen Kotkin is one of my favorite scholars

My first time on this channel and thank you Gita for being a quality interviewer. Growing up in the 90s there was tons of radio, and i listened to great conversations where not just the answers, but the questions, opened my mind to perspectives. Now when everybody can practice their convo skills on youtube and twitch it is harder to find people who truly have this skill. I am subscribed now.

SK is an amazing man; he has become incredibly brilliant by the old fashioned way: he worked hard for long periods of time! He is an excellent historian and a pleasure to listen to, thanks for this interview.

Greetings from Poland 🇵🇱❤️. Thank you for the show.

How is the EU going to provide political security to Ukraine? Look at the case of Cyprus, where the Turkish troops that invaded the island are still there even after Cyprus joined the EU.

I left UC Berkeley the year Kotkin arrived. I did know Martin Malia and Zelnik - I think Berkeley was much stronger in Russian and French history. Anyway, it was a fine school at that time. Kotkin's books on Stalin are terrific - am waiting for the third volume.

Thank you for this wonderful interview with Stephen. So lovely to hear more about his development as a scholar. "Be ready to be lucky" - Kotkin.

I absolutely loved this interview. Kotkin has what the world needs, and certainly what the US needs, by way of insight, wisdom, respect for others, and sharp intellect. I wish and hope that this piece is listened to far and wide. It is pure gold. Thank you to both people for pulling it together.

Always an honor to listen to Professor Kotkin!

Professor Kotkin's biography is much more interesting than Stalin's.

This guy molding history around his tales. Middle earth tales

I was worried I wasn't going to get my monthly dose of Kotkin for a second there. Phew, crisis averted.

Steven Kotkin is a brilliant, as usual. So interesting. Thank you from Ukrainian diaspora in Canada.

Izin Menyimak pemikiran canggih tentang rusia dari pelosok Tuban. Thanks atas privilege nya pak Gita.

As a Ukrainian, I’m very impressed with a level of understanding of the situation AND compassion at the same time Emotional and intellectual intelligence of very high level And hard truths about the possible way forward

What a pleasure to listen to Prof Kotkin speak about anything! Thank you.

Kotkin an American gem

What a strange arc of history that Michel Foucault was the professor who recommended Stephen Kotkin to analyze Stalinism. Foucault wasn't a Marxist but he is a real hero to the left, while Kotkin might be the world's best critic of Stalinism. Life is funny

Stephen is such a treasure. Thanks for recording and posting this. I'd love to hear about his wife's work with MOMA.

it's truly words of wisdom from Dr. Kotkin. not many people have large enough "volume" to hold this much knowledge, let alone wisdom. politicians of all stripes from democracy or otherwise would find useful perhaps culminating a better human society. thanks again and keep up the good work .

Calling him "the Jordan Peterson of history professionals" (not the exact wording, but whatever) isn't doing him the favor they think it is lol.

When you're young, you don't know how much you still don't know. and when you are old you don't realize how much you have forgotten.

I am a simple man, I see professor Kotkin, I click

" Win the peace". Haven't heard that since Vietnam.

I'd love to hear Stephen's thoughts on the sabotage/demolition of Nordstream 2. I, as a German, think the USA did it. It just makes the most sense when considering motive, means, opportunity. What would Prof. Kotkin say?

What a fascinating and illuminating interview! It is so validating to hear Mr Kotkin mirror my thoughts on Ukrainian so thoroughly. I also would use the example of Korea to model a peace in Ukraine. The current stalemated war is incredibly destructive and serves no purpose. An armistice could allow Ukraine to rebuild, and could allow the West to become a guarantor of a Ukraine free of endless war. It is time to end the corrosive status quo.

Fantastic interview. I enjoyed hearing more about Stephen's early life and how he became a professor focusing on Stalin and the USSR/Russia. I've seen Gita before but didn't know his name or background. Gita - I really like your style and I look forward to listening to more of you.

Always a pleasure to listen to Mr Kotkin. A man of peace and knowledge.

The Korea solution for Ukraine does not sound feasible for me. I don't believe Russia will live the Ukraine alone, Russia clearly did state they want more territories that they got now, they want Transnistria as well.

19:54 If your parents lived in Poland and Belarus before World War 1, then they lived in Russia, because Poland and Belarus were part of the Russian Empire. As well as Ukraine, Central Asia and Finland.

this interview with his interest in science and biology now i know why he mentions so many things about what medical school talk about with students to make them stuck in thinking just one way about it, very interesting now it all makes sense, but anyway just listen to his history and polictics and he is pure gold

Mr. Kotkin's educational path was fascinating in its own right. His overall perspective is enlightening The 1994 ' Budapest Memorandum' between Ukraine and the U.S. and Great Britain didn't offer the security one thought that it would. It's fine to acknowledge a conversation, but I heard a couple hundred too many 'yeah', 'yep', 'right', 'um' responses from Mr. Wirjawan. This occurred so much that it became a distraction. It would be nice if he would mute his microphone until hearing his voice became relevant. Examples include: posing a question, and making a comment that's more than one word.

I am a fan of Kotkin in so far as I enjoy his books and interviews. But this goes far beyond. That is, who needs to know so much about him?

He make this entire interview sounded like Imperial Era never ended

What a great interview! Some of Prof. K's interviews and talks can be quite academic. This one is relevant and useful. I can take a dozen morsels and apply them to reading and understanding current affairs

How is Japan a Western country institutionally? The LDP has been in power almost continuously since WW2, it's pretty much a uniparty system, Hungary was called un-democratic for way less. There are other contradictory issues like the Japanese criminal justice system which has an extremely high conviction rate which exceeds 99%.

It's a sheer pleasure to follow the brilliant clearness of Stephen’s thoughts flow. Thanks very much.

Pak Gita sudah mencerdaskan kami kami yang masih haus akan ilmu. Sehat selalu pak gita...

Great great pleasure to listen to honorable professor Stephen Kotkin.You really learn a lot and get empowered yourself by his lecture❤❤

Professor Kotkin is the gift that keeps on giving. Living the American dream. Love how he is educating his children....laying out options but letting his children choose their path. Smart. C.G. Jung said once that the greatest burden we can put on our children is our own unlived lives. Every human in unique....we must each find our own path to wholeness. An I agree wholeheartedly that living in another country for a substantial period of time give you a better understanding of America and makes you a better American. (I lived in Australia for 7.5 years). God Bless Professor Kotkin and God Bless the USA!

I am a great admirer of Professor Kotkin. That said, in this video he speaks of having visited a museum in Vietnam highlighting horrific American atrocities committed during the Vietnam War. He speaks of being deeply impressed. He then speaks of how much the Vietnamese people like and admire America and their friendship toward American visitors. Hello! There seems to be a disconnect here. Perhaps because any museum in Vietnam addressing the war will be presenting a purely Communist North Vietnamese Politburo perspective. Apparently the current generation of Vietnamese people can decipher Communist Party propaganda somewhat better than Professor Kotkin.

I read many comments and after browsing a hundred or so I can conclude that all of them are praising Kotkin for his knowledge of the history, his views on the world and the way he formulates his words like 'win the peace'. But I will be probably the first person who watched the whole interview and does not agree with him. First of all: he is talking about 'we' all the time and with 'we' he is referring to the United States and if you focus on this for a while you understand that Kotkin still believes that America rules, America is the unipolar power in the world, America is the policeman of the world. I read in one of the comments that Kotkin is seen as a humble person. Well he might be personally, but not in his views on geopolitics. In his views Putin is the villain and Russia has started the war in Ukraine unprovoked. He is pushing the neo liberal agenda of a free and open world where law rules, which guarantees peace and prosperity. He is referring multiple times to the American world order and being willing to share the planet with China. I am sorry, but this is not a humble statement, it's more an authoritarian statement where China has no saying in. He is praising the American democracy. But is America really a democratic country where the rule of the majority counts? Yes, you can vote for the next president every 4 years, but even to appear on the ballot in all States of America you need a lot of money. You need sponsors. Many sponsors donating small amounts would be ok, but large sponsors open the door for corruption because a favor should be answered by a favor in order to get a balance. The war in Ukraine has not began on February 24 2022, but 8 years before on February 18 2014 with the Maidan Revolution. Does Kotkin acknowledge or at least consider that the CIA might have been involved in setting up this revolution ? What are Kotkin's thoughts about the CIA ? Does Kotkin believe there are neocons in the American politics ? It's a few days after the historic interview of Tucker Carlson interviewing Vladimir Putin. I would love to hear a reaction of Kotkin on this. Would he be trying to throw mud at Carlson like the mainstream media does and call Carlson a traitor, not being qualified to act as a journalist? Should Carlson be refused to enter the USA on his return ? I would love to see a debate between Kotkin and Jeffrey Sachs discussing the following topics: war in Ukraine, corruption of the CIA, military industrial complex in the USA, degradation of the first amendment.

First time watching Kotkin, not bad, some of the sentences he coined are so usable in day to day analysis that you know you are speaking with an expert that knows how to sell a story. Amazing

I always enjoy listening to Stephen Kotkin.

Despite Mr. Korkin's academic achievements, his worldview reeks of American exceptionalism. The uni-polar "my way or a highway" world is coming to an end.

That was a great conversation. And also a really great concept. Win the War, lose the peace, or the other way around ... P.S. why does professor Kotkin remind me of Joe Pesci, including voice ?

Dr Kotkin's classes must have been so in demand!

I had the great fortunte to live in Peru, Spain, and Phillipines as a kid before settling in the USA. My view of the world widened, and I developed an uncommon compassion, as my friends tell me. Kotkin speaks of the wisedom gained by living abroad at least once in a person's life.

The analysis by Stephen Kotkin, confirms my suspicion that his background is in mathematics. The reasoning is lucid and organized within a logical and structured framework. Facts and events are presented to support or diminish other theses in a coherent fashion. More reason why liberal arts majors should be required to take courses in mathematics and physics. Great interview.

Surely someone with such a comprehensive knowledge and insight of Russia, Ukraine and geopolitics on the whole as Mr. Kotkin would acknowledge the west's role in the current disastrous situation in Ukraine. I respect and enjoy his historical work on the Soviet era of Russia and of course his exhaustive study of Joseph Stalin but I'm disappointed that such a luminary as Kotkin would allow himself to be so obviously blinkered by American exceptionalism as to misdiagnose the causes of this conflict.

An intelligent man who knows life is 90% luck and 10% seizing the opportunities. It isn’t how smart, or how much you try but how many opportunities you’re given. This is one of the issues in the western world now because now if you’re poor you don’t get any important people to meet, can’t afford education and never make enough money to spend anytime to think about what’s happening around you. If you’re lucky enough to get an opportunity you’re terrified to take it in case it doesn’t work out and leave you destitute. We have ways for exceptional young people but not for all and have none for the rest.

An outstanding discussion and wonderful to hear about Professor Kotkin’s early days in academia.

I must confess I had either forgotten or didn't know that South Korea was technically still are war with North Korea has done a remarkable job of winning the peace. It is these sorts of insights that Stephen brings to the table with a fluidity that only comes from decades of analysis and thought. I never bore of hearing him talk. His analysis is rooted in reality, not "principled" assertions of what should morally apply. Some people find this offensive but they occupy a different reality. An example is his explanation for the Ukranians not being able to regain all that Russia has taken - morally they are entitled to get it back but they would have to take Moscow and that isn't going to happen. Diplomats have been operating in this intellectual space for eternity.

Masih berharap sempat wawancara dengan Chomsky. Terima kasih dengan episode spesial ini dan sebelum-sebelumnya. Good luck.

love listening to Stephen Kotkin

I love it when he talks about the "rules based order". Anglo cultural blindness. In effect, be like us and we will like you. What makes you think Russians don't have a rules based order or that they don't have an institutional order. Does Kotkin apply the same standards to Israel? Speaking of the rules based order.

42:12 "Russia doesn't need Ukraine" (c) Ohh, this is soo wrong. This guy is giving advices how to stop war and is mistaken in such simple things

Is anyone else staring at his incredible collection of books? Kotkin is easily the world's preeminent commentator on Russia, communism, and geopolitics, and every time I listen to him speak, I'm reminded of the astonishing depth and breadth of his intellect. I cannot wait to read the last book in his Stalin trilogy.

I would love to hear what prof. Kotkin reckons will happen to the West after Trump wins the election. Specifically, when he questions NATO's Article 5. If anyone who is about to interview him is reading this, can you please ask him? That's the #1 question I think.

Stephen Kotkin is gold

One greatness of Steven Kotkin is his persistence in emphasizing that we must appreciate the strength of the United States, and use the leverage that lies therein to stand up against authoritarianism for the long term good of democracy and the rule of law and order. "...The whole point of the American world order, is that it provides opportunity for others, not just for Americans. That's what we've got to reinforce, that's the message, and therefore our friends and partners have to be in that room, and our actions that may be unilateral, we have to understand what the effects are for our friends and partners. As well as those who are not yet our partners, but might want to be one day our friends and partners. So, self-confidence plus humility, a larger room rather than just a bilateral room, and making sure that we don't undermine the interests of our friends and partners, in the bilateral deals that we might make as superpowers." On the issue of Ukraine winning the peace, he's dead on, but for now, Ukraine stands to gain from continuing the war, at least for some time IMO.

Daging semua interview2nya Pak Gita, terima kasih tuk kuliah gratis nya 🙏

This man is a hero. I love his books and his comments are always insightful and interesting.

Great