How Often do 1st round QB's ACTUALLY succeed? 

Trubisky on the same tier as RG3 and Wentz is disrespectful

Andrew Luck, Carson Wentz, and RG3 should all be one point higher since they were top QBs in the league before injuries.

The #1 overall QB picks going back to the 1980s aren't difficult to compare: Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford, JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe, Jeff George, Troy Aikman, Vinny Testaverde, and John Elway. That list is pretty good, with some obvious duds, and some in between. Before Elway, Steve Bartowski was the previous 1-1 QB, and I only remember him from NFL Films highlights.

What is really amazing is that there are thousands of HS QBs and hundreds of College QBs over the past ten years....and the NFL can not find 32 good QBs from all that supply.

Not surprising. With only 15 or so franchise-Dalton line quarterbacks there’s a reason most classes have a bona fide 1 and another 5 1st rounders that don’t pan out because the supply and demand are at odds.

The gap between Lawrence and the other QBs were massive. Last year Tepper overruled the GM who wanted Stroud. Burrow was the clear cut 1. Murray, not generational but clearly RG best from his class. Luck, Cam, Bradford Stafford, Palmer, Eli, Vick and Carr were all the clear cut #1’s and really Carr and Bradford were the only flops. Baker Goff and Winston were more coin flips, less so with Winston but more of a case of taking a quarterback based on the premium of the position than anything else.

This is something I love talking about, that people really just ignore. Hit rates in the draft is very interesting to me. Here's what I'm curious about, is there are correlation with 1st round QBs between number of games started at the college level and/or age and success rate in the NFL? I suspect there is, and I also think that NIL and the transfer portal could potentially get college players more experience at the college level before the declare for the draft making the overall talent level coming out of college that much better.

How many are actually hit but we'll never know as they ended up in a bad team and looked like a bust?

Article on MSN.... Josh Allen LB for Jacksonville gets a long term contract BUT...they show a photo of the Buffalo's Josh Allen the QB

Can you do one on the percentage of quarterbacks who succeeded versus their ADP

there have been many statistical analyses of the nfl draft and some are fairly easy to find on google... buut Eugene Shen has said during a seminar he gave that the hit rate for qbs picked 1-5 is ~50% hit rate and 6-15 is ~47% soooo just looking at the math it is clearly in favor of always trade back from picks 1-5 gain a war chest of picks and grab your qb in that 6-15 range...you cant look at the draft with hindsight. I think his gauge for success was they get resigned by their original team. So trust the math and you will win out in the long run...more darts and all....

Krueger might do a video on QBs that were thought to be total draft junk.... and and then, and then.... led their teams to the SB. Tom Brady, Brock Purdy, Joe Theismann, Jake Delhomme, Kurt Warner, Stan Humphries. ( Theismann went to Canada to play for $50,000/year and then became a punt returner for Washington before getting the QB job.)

Most to go to a team with the talent the Bears now possess.

The 1st Overall Pick has to be a #4 QB that you get or it's a bust.

Good question for deeper analysis. Two extreme examples, David Carr is universally considered a bust, but quite a large pool of otherwise good QBs would have failed with "the bad news bears" of the NFL. I thought Luck in a similar situation lifted a putrid team to new heights, eventually his incredible hulk body also broke down. Situation matters. That said, outlook grim for Bryce Young. He might already be damaged goods.

It's hard to succeed in the NFL.

Only 4 QBs drafted in the top 10 since 1990 have been selected to a 1st Team ALL PRO … I forgot one but … Manning … Ryan … Newton .. #keeppounding .. and they said my QB was bust .. 🤣

Still, just two 1st overall QBs won a superbowl with the team who drafted them in the last 34 years

not usually no

I think teams bow try very hard to cater to the #1 pick. If he doesn't work then gm hm HC will get fired

QBs* …apostrophes don’t make words plural

I think you should’ve been able to add a .5 to these rankings. I’d call Luck a 3.5, same with Burrow, due to his injury history.

We should assume any Bears qb will be bad