The depth of this content is useful for everyone in the betting business, regardless of their experience. Based on this information anyone can make adjustments and create their own strategies. Thanks for always sharing your experience Tony, all the best.
Thanks a lot. Someone who is newly venturing into the betting business will appreciate it if, after every calculation points out, this or that means this team is more likely to win or draw or both teams are more likely to score. that way I can use your example.
Two Cents: 1. What about high Margin in over/under Market (especially in lower markets) 2. Where is the value as this easy calculation is done by each bookie also.
Well, obviously it's beyond your thought process (two can play the flippant game). It's called competition - Bookmakers don't all have the same odds! Secondly - Asian handicaps (low margin) & alternate lines (unbalanced) create another angle. Anyone using value betting software (in a country that allows competition - not Germany) will find 50 standout odds with Bet365 alone on a quiet day! Save the attitude with me!
@@BettingAnalyst and what will bet365 do after you made some bets on these and make a bit of profit? The same thing any bookie in Europe does. They set a limit so that you can only bet 10€ or less. Betfair limited my bets to 1cent 6 years ago.
Great info.... So what I wanna know is.... Leagues already started so u use previous season stats or current stats for calculations... Especially match day 1
Good question - at this stage, you don't have enough data, but yes allowances for the most recent form need to be considered. I could write a thesis on this subject, but the short version: 1. At about 10 games you can start relying on this season's form. 2. More stability follows transfer windows closing. 3. Consider the program - Which teams they played etc. 4. Once you get to understand what this video was talking about, start thinking ELO ratings. Once you have the hang its easier to incorporate more metrics! The system covered in this video is best for ''totals'' - scores etc. If you are wanting to work out match odds, you would need to be able to put the ''draw'' odds in the equation. Trying to figure that part out should be doable, but you would need to use a different Poisson distribution calculator! While the site looks like it was made BC, Annabet gives that option. Good luck
@BettingAnalyst would it be suitable to keep including the data from current form onto last season so that accuracy increases progressively. Maybe just do rolling two season data
In your example thats written to explain how to calculate the xG , you calculated West Hams away goals conceded when they're stated to play at home against Aston. Was that a mistake or am i missing something? Btw great video and very helpful
Thanks - The flip: WEST HAM AT HOME: Calculate West Ham’s Attack Strength: Step - 1: Number of goals scored at home by West Ham 31/19 (number of games) = 1.63 Step - 2: Divide this value by the season’s average home goals (1.63/1.80) to get an “Attack Strength” of 0.91. Calculate Aston Villa’s Defence Strength: Step - 1: Number of goals conceded away by Aston Villa 33/19 (number of games) = 1.74 Step - 2: Divide this by the season’s average Conceded away goals (1.74/1.80) to get a “Defence Strength” of 0.97 To find the xG for West Ham - simply: Step 3: Multiply 0.91 (attack) * 0.97 (defence) * 1.80 (League average) = 1.59
My apologies i didn't specify the issue im facing. Aston Villas xG was calculated by West hams goals conceded in away games whilst they're stated to play at home against Aston Villa@BettingAnalyst
It all comes from the xG (expected goals), and most Poisson calculators will pump out the chance for correct scores. One I used in this example (sinceawin) had goalscorer grids!
This never works and never has. The issue is using data to predict is similar to what bookies do. Instead, bookies using data is their weakness. The goal of the punter is to NOT use any data but rather manually investigate actual motive and inside info. Thats how you profit and thats why it is so difficult to do. No one needs to bet on a variety of fields. You just know team A and team B motives from an inside perspective including cards and you can be profiting easily. Odds dont matter at all. But getting into such info means you must know someone within the team's staff. 🎉
Pff - Does it wind me up when people make such unqualified broad statements. What qualifies you to say? + It doesn't work + Odds don't matter + The goal of the punter is not to use data + Profiting easily The only part I agree with is ''using sports-modelling can be the bookmaker's weakness''. Everyone (including the bookies) knows about the card situation! Insider information: If you are referring to Bob not playing John will be filling in - it might be worth 0.1 to 0.2 goals! However, we all know what's going on at the big clubs, there is no ''secret info''. For small leagues, team news is less important, and liquidity is low! Go tell Tony Bloom, Matthew Benham, Billy Walters, Bill Bentner, Mike Walsh, or Zeljko Ranogec that data doesn't matter - they could do with a good laugh! I would have been ok if you had said ''what works for me best'' - but now you sound like some old record who just wants to object - counterproductive and uncalled for!! PS - liking your own posts is another nono! :-)
@BettingAnalyst in our league in Greece, knowing someone within the administration makes all the difference. Player not feeling well, player to be carded on purpose, either for profit or to lose the next match and not the one after, also we have rigged matches but those are tough to find. Also, my point is ie at the end of 2nd last season our top 2 teams played each other. Bookies gave cards o5.5 line. We all knew the standings and teams motivation, none had any. Data showed an incoming cards galore. Match ended with 2 cards. We knew. We bet. We won, with a limit usually at 800-1200€ bet per bookie (365 ofc notoriously causing issues). Many examples but I don't want to tire you. The point is, if you want to win in betting, you bet like that. You study, you get involved, you watch and you get inside info. You aren't winning another way, plain and simple. I've tried all the data paid sources you can find today. Systems, niches. Everyone loses. Especially in football. On the contrary... I will say that on American sports and especially player props, there is indeed some small profit to be made assuming availability and odds are there (about 20-40u per year). Otherwise, there, in those sports, rigged bets also flourish (ie player props for a player who will be exited in basketball in the 1st quarter "injured", or a rookie who is meant to step in tonight's game and get the ball a lot and score, but if you DONT have admin info u won't know about it). Sorry, that's the harsh reality of betting. I wish it wasn't.
@@katadromeasgr Sure, in your leagues (Greece), Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Hungary and many East Bloc countries - the result is often known before the game! We get 100's of markers every week warning us of the same, and its just the way it is! However, BOOKMAKERS know this too! That's why betting limits for such leagues are peanuts! While you might be able to ''duck & dive'' locally, getting money down on props (cards) on such leagues is an even bigger fallacy! While I'm not saying its impossible to profit from such, its very limited! However, my main objection with your post is when you say its the only way - because this is where you are wrong. If you had just wrote, its your method and something that works for you, I would have said ''good luck''. However, you have implied that we are all liars, all wrong to be using data/sports modelling and somehow our lifestyles built from our Betting is fictitious! Its like telling Usain Bolt its impossible to run 100 meters in 9.6 seconds - just because you can't! I'm careful with making broad statements, talking about money made (ego), showing my lifestyle from sports betting because wise men/mentors try and help others, and they don't stand there on a pedestal and talk down to those making an effort! Good luck with your betting - but learn to accept there are more ways to Rome!
@BettingAnalyst ehm, mate, Greek superleague has limits of 100k in singles, not sure what you mean. Maybe in the 🇬🇧 your limits are smaller but here they aren't, in fact they are stated prior to placing a bet as a "max limit". Something 365 should do but ofc they don't. Anyway, I don't want to argue but my final point is: far better to fire a single on a fixed outcome or a single card, than follow the data approach of 1u spreading across markets. For the life of me I have NEVER ever seen a punter make a profit in football with this approach. Ever. If you can, then God bless you.
@@enzomuzzo1391 "Why turkish language dont have" question who writes English like this sir ? Its not correct, it sounds like you have basic understanding, basic level of English. Anyways I like turkish people so, no harm........ have a good day.
