In this installment of the $10 to $11 Bankroll Challenge, we address a viewer's question: How can you use game theory when your opponents are deviating far away from the equilibrium? DriveHud2: drivehud.com/ GTOBase: gtobase.com/
I think that fighting these leads with lots of aggression with the weaker parts of your range is a mistake. The player type who limp calls pre tends to also play honest post. The exploit against this player type is to raise value heavy vs their aggression and lean towards overfolding marginal hands as they'll be weighted towards hands that like the flop. On the flip side, when this player type checks you can widen both your bluffing frequency and how thin you go for value, as instead of checking their range to you they're checking a significantly weaker range. Also vs this player type who are more likely to be inelastic with draws, being super value heavy on turn is going to be a good exploit when they draw to hands with wrong odds. At least bluff a hand like AT which can fold out pairs and wins against all draws.
Wouldn't suggest that'd be a great idea on a lot of drawing boards unless we have some show down vs missed draws on a rivered blank. With the texture changing somewhat dramatically on the river we can expect villain will find at least some amount of folds. Using a smaller turn size is probably more ideal here though as rec's tend to be inelastic to sizing and more responsive to betting volume.
@@jackmills3743we shouldn't overthink this particular spot since villain is probably rather high in his distribution for the line he took. Maybe he quickly folds QT and lower and our bet is printing, because he calls the turn way too wide with middle pairs in there
Really enjoyed this one, as someone who studies and trains a lot with the solver, when it comes to applying what we've learned to micro/small stakes online tables vs recreationals it can leave one somewhat shell shocked and bruised. please keep it up. cheers !
There is no amount of heuristics or whatever new word the gto world wants to use that can save any player from playing K9 off without any money in the pot and losing 100bb from themselves. Trying to out play a sticky fish is literally lighting money on fire. Using gto to make you feel better is the literal definition of stupidity.
17:45 "I could probably solve climate change before figuring out this specific villains strategy given that he probably doesn't even know his own strategy." I love your videos so much.
I try to play strict GTO, but when I play low stakes on PokerStars zoom, I found out that to be profitable I have to deviate from GTO on the river (everything else stays GTO) . No GTO bluffs going all in when I miss, or whatever, never bluff on the river. Never call all in on the river without the nuts (blockers, or bluff catcher hand don't apply there). Because the amount you win when these river GTO principles works versus the amount you loose where it doesn't is clearly in favor of loosing. It is clearly - EV. Doing that in mid to high stakes would get you crushed, but in low stakes it makes you win more.
I think that is his slover’s OPEN range. So he appears to have added the Limp plus a standard open. 3.2 BB. I agree K9o isn't a 3 bet but his sizing should have been 6bb or 7bb for a 3b on the button. Bluffing because he has a 9 of spades on a 3 flush draw out? Yeah, but in this case, the Villian had the K of spades in his hand, and it was an easy call. I don't like how he characterized the Villian as not knowing what he was doing. Villian knew exactly what he was doing, limping with his hand. Donking with top pair and calling all the bluffs to the River. Rather condescending tone about the opponent through the whole video.
Exactly. Was 3.2x his normal open on limped pots? I Use Crafty Wheels line of GTO products and they have no info about limping pots. So I treat UTG and Early position limpers as Strong. So when I 3 bet, I 3bet standard size for the position I'm in and I use the standard range. K9 off suit is an open at the button but not a 3bet. 3 Bet sizing is like 8bb so Id downsize it to between 6 and 7 bbs. Seems to work fine. The line he took after the Flop was bazar as heck. I'm assuming the solver and he were targeting a low pair or standard missed flops. Once the villain hits the top pair at that stake, he ain't folding to that Run out. EVER. I suppose if an A hit the turn, he could have gotten villian to fold Top Pair by the River with that line.
The only thing I really disagree with here is that if the river was a different sizing the outcome would be the same. I think a smaller bet on the turn allowing a closer or bigger than 1:1 spr otr might have been a bit different. That said pretty unlikely for this guy to find the fold with his specific hand and given how wide he is limping he probably folds a ton on that river anyway so I wouldnt give too much weight on the outcome of this specific hand.
Yep, this guy actually sucks at playing poker. Shows the difference between a real poker player with experience and instincts vs a book learning guy with zero reading ability
@@FindingEquilibriumFrom random anecdotal experience, early limpers are very often playing strong hands that they don’t want to face 3bets in. Suited Aces, High Broadways, decently high suited connectors, medium pocket pairs. From a psychological perspective it makes sense since it protects them from 3 bet while giving up balance which most low stakes players don’t care about.
would you be interested in working with someone to do the same challenge with tournaments? I'm attempting to grind up my bankroll in low and micro-stakes tourneys and have managed to get to 2000 dollars so far with a lot of blood sweat and plenty of tears. Obviously, the strategies will be very different with ICM implications in place. It could be really interesting to learn how to increase dollar ev vs the fish
I feel something is missing here. Nash equilibrium is defined on a pair of strategies played by both players that are optimal. If your opponent doesn’t play optimally, then you can unilaterally increase the EV of your strategy to arrive at a maximally exploitative strategy for them. Solvers assume that the opponent plays optimally. Low stake players are probably calling stations. The exploit is to value bet more. So the right thing to do is to adjust your GTO strategy to exploit their weaknesses that became obvious over time with that opponent. By trying to minimize the EV delta score, you are limiting that adjustment. Is the goal to maximize chips or to play optimally?
When encountering a player whose 3B is too wide, it seems difficult to evaluate the corresponding range. But I have been paying attention to this channel, very scientific
Raise bigger vs the limp. Also with a tighter range. You can be easily exploited by the villain limo reraising with stronger hands. Limping weak hands knowing you will only raise small. Also more likely to go multi-way
You can’t really call the first guy a donkey bingo player because he actually played GTO lol. Your raise on the flop was the first play deviating from GTO. Him calling down was done with a fair frequency
what i learned at these stakes is to exploit the worst fishes (especially the huge losers which is important because they will bust so fast, so you want to maximize the amount of times that YOU stack them and not some other guy at your table who is trying to do the same thing (you can get very very creative)). and that's a skill you have to acquire just like getting good at gto. you can beat most of the other people at these stakes by overfolding and occasionally bluffcatch their worst bluffs, you don't really have to look deeper to get a very good winrate at these levels (ofc always keep an eye out if someone catches on to the overfolding etc. and punish their overreaction!).
What do you think the difference is for balancing playing at a normal table and zoom? AT a normal table or even better at a live in person table, the value of balancing is higher because people will watch the run out and the reveal. At Zoom, only one player is watching so the value of balancing is lower. The point of balancing is to help get value from value hands by having some bluffs, no? If no one is watching you bluff, then there is little value for balance. In that case, the value of bluffing is only getting opponents off stronger hands. If your opponents never fold at lower stakes with pairs or better, then bluffing has near zero value against these opponents.
But would you rather improve by slowly grinding through the micros by trying to play optimal? Or speedrun the micros and then at 100nl you will start to face real challenges, at which point you will improve much more rapidly?
@@spoder22 exactly. I'm on nl100 and just now started to 3barrel bluff. I'm always studying theory but why put yourself into complex branches if I can just fold everything on the river and get massive win rates like that. you can make 15bb/100 just thin value betting the shit out of them and calling everything vs high vpip fishes. I will keep complex stuff for when I really need it.
If you talk that accurate about the game and bust your roll. It only can means 2 things. 1. the risk of ruin can never be 0%. And 2, that I should quit playing 100NL and get a real job.
Even by employing the one position earlier Rfi you are losing a lot of EV. You should arguably be opening wider than your button range to maximise your EV because you will have a strong post flop edge.
That feels like evey single hand i play on PS, they call call down with junk and hit the world. The amount of times everyone folds when I have a monster and I didn't even get a chance to bet, I feel like I'm just playing AI bots now. Time to give up me thinks...
As a mid stake player who beat small stakes pretty good, here’s my take. After your flop raised was called, u began to stray into punt territory. That rec is unlikely to be calling that raise with the thinking that he may fold to more pressure on later streets, and when u continue on the deuce, it doesn’t seem like u have a flush draw cause you’d mostly take a free card. On the river you’re representing a draw bluff that turned into a flush. Rec sees that as unlikely to be the case and calls. More importantly, once the flop raise is called, why even put yourself in the position of bluffing into a guy that’s shown nothing but strength once the flop came out? Fact is there’s way better spots for an all in bluff. I get u *can* bluff there via GTO, but it’s far from the class of *best* spots to bluff. U make you’re money only all in bluffing in the very best spots, wait for them. Don’t punt into a rec who clearly loves this flop, there’s just better spots
As a further thought, a GTO bot doesn’t have “best” spots to bluff cause it’s opponent plays perfectly. However in the real world there are great bluff spots and poor bluff spots because your opponents will often give away important pieces of information by how they play the hand, whereas a GTO bots opponent does not, forcing the bot to bluff in far more marginal spots. IMO, the crucial difference to beating the game lies in waiting for usable human oriented information and pouncing on it, opportunities that don’t really exist in GTO land. Btw I’m a big fan of your work, keep it up!
@@ba1038 same applies for "best" bluff catch spots. in equilibrium they are only slightly +EV, in reality if you have a good read on your opponent and his line doesn't make any sense for his playstyle you win a humongous amount of times when you bluff catch (and your cards don't matter at all (as long as they beat his bluffs)).
you do realize that is a huge compliment to the opponent. That is the goal of poker, to confuse opponent while at the same time reading their strategy.
I'm playing poker since 2007, was a live cg, and online mtt and spin pro. Am on break atm. Will be back in 2025. Here are my thoughts for these specific fish, micro stakes pools with the K9o hand. - I'd chose a tighter range against these opponents. K9s+KTo+ to be dominating their preferred broadway limping range more. - Pre iso ok. Flop raise ok, although these players rarely fold once they donk, and one doesn't need to think about being capped when calling, as the fish doesn't notice that we are capped, as they are always afraid of being trapped. - Turn play is where it becomes interesting. I'd only 1.5x, 2x pot turn with a polarized balanced range that has huge draw potential or 2pairs+, because these people call too much. Normally the river is a 100% instant jam after that play. - But in this case the flush arrives, and he for sure has more flushes, and also K9o blocks his straight combos, so it is very likely that he holds a Q and will never ever fold it. - On top the board is paired, which makes it look less likely for you to have something. As he doesn't think in ranges, he will "not believe" that you have QQ or JJ for a full. Now obviously this dude is a suicide kamikaze station. Maybe it is also a house bot. You never know, I don't play online anymore. Even though I had 1 M winnings and good net profit, I don't trust these sites. GL
One more thing that I learned the hard way in live cg against braindead donkeys: - You don't need that much bluffs, vs people that do not fold. A balanced bluff range maximizes your EV vs people that can lay hands down, and have a minimum brain activity. - Don't give old man coffee action. - Don't make thin equity plays, because they help your opponent. For example jamming AK pre. Why? Because you give them the opportunity to win more equity share as if you wait for high EV spots postop where they donk their whole stack off on dumb plays- - To mix in "bluffs" and not be cathegorized as old man coffe, I just use suited connectors like 87s, 98s etc. nn one gappers etc. One can even ditch A5s as a bluff 4 bet pre depending on which continent you are playing. In Europe, you'll have to have A5s in there, as the games are way more advanced as in the US. In the US or Colombia or Mexico for example the calling range of a RFI for these people is tighter than my 4 betting range in Euro land. :D
Well played hand imo. Except the guy is probably a sucker with no fold button. Keep it up, make us a nice data point. How does good play work vs fishes with no fold buttons?
Btw, I'm not familiar with the software so my question might be dumb but does analyzer take frequencies into account? In other words, let's say the ideal strategy in one particular spot 30% all-in and 70% fold and went all-in only 15% of the time when you had a chance. What would the software say?
GTO play/concepts vs recs is a negative EV play. Attaining balance is pointless because they’re not going to notice whether you are or aren’t and they’ll go broke soon enough. I love playing recs and have never had a problem winning against them. My advice- play your normal ranges plus to play more pots with them. Bluff less and value bet more frequently with weaker hands. Increase your bet amount based off the strength of your hand. Example you have AK and flop comes Ac 3h 8s- don’t cbet 1/3, bet 2/3-3/4 because a Donk isn’t going to fold an Ace or most pairs. On safe turns 3c, 8d, a 2,7,6 etc bet another 2/3-3/4. Same with the river. With aggressive donks slow play your monsters, the vast majority are prone to over bluffing. Obviously if you determine that your opponent has a tendency to do that, don’t be afraid to call down lighter. Lastly don’t stress if you run into it. Sometimes the donks just have it or catch their 3-4 outer and save your balanced bluffs for the regs who have the skill/ability to lay down medium strength non-nutted hands.
The eastern bloc bots are insane in the micros on ACR. It makes u a lot better tho in ways. but it’s miserable playing. It’s a weird mix of nits, bots and punts. Anybody have any advice on how to tag people with notes? Like I’ll put “don’t bluff” if they are a station. Or if somebody 3 or 4 bet checks the flop I’ll tag them for that, assuming they are a bot balancing their range. Idk if that’s true. Or if I actually see a bluff I’ll tag them. But bluffs seem so rare. I really don’t know what to put and how it’ll help. I just end up folding big hands vs aggression and find an insane amount of bluffs. I’ll take down a high % of flops seen but don’t make much of a profit.
Use a color coding system for ACR. Regs- are Red, Yellow and Orange colored based off their playing styles Red-Nits Yellow- Tags Orange-Lags Use the other colors for specific categories etc. GTO- green That way one quick glance tells you their playing style. Then add relevant shorthand notes that you pick up in key hands. For example 4 bet bluffs in position with King Queen suited or Calls 3 bets from middle position vs button raise with suited connectors and pairs 5’s plus etc. Slow plays/fast plays flopped sets on dry boards Plays flush draws aggressively but gives up on missed rivers. Key notes like those tell you a ton about your opponents range and how to play against them.
The joke's on you... imagine spending hours calling the villian a "he" and failing to spot its a girl's because the name is Roxy!!! I'm joking obviously... but as a recreational player myself I feel your disdain toward me not playing "well" or in a way you approve of... would be my greatest (or only) weapon against you on the table. I'd play even more ridiculous just to screw with you for example by 7x-ing my A2o utg, then donk pot, donk pot, jam regardless of the run out... Solver says I'd win sometimes right? Ok then. you will win financially, but I'll be the one more happy about it. Great video by the way - but needs RAGE, Killing in the name of...Tool was great though too! ♥
Balance principles is a very good thing, but for someone to exploit your deviations from near gto balanced strategy, he's needed to play and analyze tons of hands against you, when you tell that opponent could exploit you by doing this, yes, but will he?
the only thing i takr away from these videos is confirmation that range construction is one million times easier in omaha and i should continue to avoid nlhe
Is it not also true that; even if we cant assign an entirely accurate range to villain, that we can assign a range appropriate for villains aggregated over the player pool for that spot To use a drastically oversimplified example, lets say villain opens CO, imagine half of the pool opens Q9o and half doesnt, without the ability to differentiare the two groups wouldnt the optimal strategy be the same as playing against a player who opens Q9o half of the time, I might have worded that poorly 😕
yes and no. first of all you get all kind of players with different playstyles at these stakes which are easy to differentiate, so adjusting individually isn't a big thing. second point is that you can't, even at these stakes, expect the players to not adjust to you (a lot won't but some do). so if the optimal strategy vs population range in a specific spot leads to strong imbalances observant players could exploit you.
ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-zIg9I74DyX4.html The full series is on Solve For Why.There is also an ~80 page written version which you can access by subscribing at GTOx. I will probably make it free at some point but I would want to update it first because it was written years ago.
Definately not true. You need to bluff, but against the right opponents and in the right spots. Some low stakes players are super loose, others are super tight. your play needs to adjust to the specific opponent
If heuristic thinking is very important, why not directly tell everyone the heuristic thinking in different scenarios through teaching? i think i will sign up
Most weak players hate to fold river after an overbet turn. They are too scared of being bluffed that they call too much Play GTO until the river. Then give up or overfold more frequently than GTO With the rake, folding or giving up on the river is more profitable than doing a zero or low ev bluff with no rake. Disclaimer: I play on winamax holdup, I don't know the field on ACR nor pokestars.
My brother in Christ, you played 5k hands and think things are going wrong? Variance is much harder for the human brain to conceive than we give it credit for. You will need at least 60-100k hands before any edge starts to materialize. Don't get me wrong, I do not believe a purely GTO strategy is the way to go at micros (at all). But give yourself some time
Love this series. It takes courage to put yourself out there. A few random comments: I think you’re handicapping yourself not going full on with a HUD. Also 2 tables will also hurt you; no matter how brilliant you may be. Finally, nothing defines a limper’s range better than a large open raise. I go at least 6BB. You’ll have a good idea of his range by his response.
This is a lot of cope to justify that your punt was actually an expert play while using a sim that happens 1/10th of 1 percent of the time to prove it. I'm going to assume that you don't actually believe this is a good play and that you intentionally used this hand to create a 20m video because you know what it takes to get them views. I aint' mad at cha.
@@yungbreezyatl What do you mean call down? You open 2 big blinds from the SB. If he calls you check range. If he bets and you have nothing just fold. If he checks back Bet Turn Bet River 67 both. The pot is like 22 blinds tops. That right there is the max exploit SB strategy for micro stakes.
If you have to study much gto to beat a game, then you need to find a different game. This is the part you are not supposed to say out loud. I advise everyone whose serious about doing poker to avoid buying products like whatever the fuck software this guy is selling. Game selection is just about everything.
Solvers add bluffs to their raising range not because it wants to be balanced so their range isnt face up. It bluffs because its choosing the highest ev line. Most bluffs are 0 ev, or equal to giving up, or slightly above 0 ev, if the bluff has good blockers or the solver has a big range advantage. The goal is never to be balanced. Being balanced is just a consequence of ev maximization. I wouldnt recommend shoving river after the rec called a turn overbet. By that point, a lot of recs wont care and call. "Whats losing another 50bb?". People tend to be more risk seeking when they are already losing and risk averse when they are winning. I know that by experience. It hurts more to have a losing session when your session starts really well than when its bad from the start. You should bluff if you think its +ev or its against a reg that you play a lot and will exploit you if you dont bluff enough (but even then, you should actually think about if its a +ev or 0 ev bluff).