If the simulation doesn't have at least one outcome where Max wins every race, then the methodology is likely flawed. It seems that is more likely than Piastri as champion.
Dr. Strange predicting 2024 season - 1 in a billion combinations Haas winning constructors and 1 in a trillion combinations Hulk winning driver's championship. Komatsu is searching desperately for the Infinity Stones.
This is a great idea. It'll be very interesting to see if any actually come true. I've not seen this done by anyone before. It could easily become part of mt pre-seasom must watches along with Tommo's car livery redesigns
Thanks so much, I definitely underestimated how long it would take hense getting it out just in time before the first race. But now I have it sorted I can definitely see myself doing even more in-depth versions
The race of statistics against reality. I would encourage you to make a video halfway through the season to see how many of the stats came close to reality.
Might be an idea to go through last year's finishing position (driver) and see what their highest and lowest finishes were. So, starting with Logan Sargent, and building your way up to Verstappen... Also, I saw another comment, but would be interesting to see if Max ever won the max number of races...
Just curious, but did those simulations take into account that IF the midfield battles get spicy and collisions occur, that yellow and red flags happen? And who seems to come out on top after one lap, or the first corner?
This was a delightful dream land. Might be fun to do with the results from the first half of the season to see if it can predict the results of the 2024 season
I don't know what exact list of parameters you used for the Simulations and you even mentioned using random variables to make these simulation. A better way of doing this could be using some bench mark test values from ore season testings and applying a slightly adjusted upgrade schedules using some reference values for manufacturing with cost cap limit applied to run Simulations with the driver placements and lap time records adjusted for expected spec bumps of this year cars. I mean this model could be improved upon but something like this has to be the core of the Simulations. Hope you can make better improved one in future with limited parameters defined by data from races before the mid season break for the mid season break.
The data definitely needed some fine tuning so I’ll be saving this comment for next time! I’ll be honest I haven’t done anything like this before so the main thing I spent time on was understanding how to modify the game to get the results. But next time will be more sophisticated.
@@NotApplicableJB oh you did the Simulations using f1 game? Sorry I thought you used some data analytics tools to do this. Makes sense we can't push the game beyond what we are given access to. FYI I don't own the games, so the idea of using the game for simulation never occurred to me 😅.
I think that you are being extremely positive for 2024 season that other drivers will be the champion, even your simulatio says that. But being positive makes feel better so I respect that.
You have Red Bull finishing in 3rd twice….Did max pass away early on in this seasons or get put in a wheel chair? Because if max is in the car finishing below 2nd will be impossible
Clearly you should have added preseason testing to the mix. Alpine last year isnt the same team. The 2nd half performance was down to all the people they fired or are now resigning. Many of the teams have changed aero concept over the break too.
I do have a question for you. Ranked these f1 drivers from best to worst when it comes to their prime between Hamilton, Vettel, Alonso, Raikkonen and Verstappen?
How was this even simulated? It's impossible (unless you have a couple weeks free) to simulate 1000 seasons in F1 23. It'd be really cool tho if it was possible to find that file somewhere and look through it ourselves
7:31 No we don't count Sprint races, because they aren't called Sprint races. According to the regulations they are properly referred to as Sprint Sessions. An Oscar or Fernando championship year would be amazing though Just curious, but how many races did Lance win in these 1,000 simulations!!
Back when I had F1 2001 the game was pretty accurate in predicting who would win the race ( for the next day ) from the grid line up, perhaps testing it with the current version just to see - oh yeah max is is first followed. By ( drivers here)
Wow that is really surprising indeed honestly if Alonso would win his 3rd title at Aston I would be dissapointed because I want Vettel to be the first champion at Aston Martin he was the one who made Aston look good in 2023 and honestly he should of stayed at Aston for 2023. Also I like to see a Albon and Williams win of course.
I think that’s fair, it would have been great to see Vettel get a win at least. But I’m not sure we will actually see an Aston world champ anytime soon 😅
Looking at this now, Hass is in tie for 5th place with RB, I know alot can happend, but I hope that these statictis isn't right, because then there is no reason to actually watch Formel 1.
Did you factor in the fact that Red Bull came out with a car that doesn't degrade the tyres? Did you factor in the RB20? Here's the problems with simulations and algorithms; Garbage In Garbage Out.
This method is how Mercedes tests its ideas too. Obviously. There’s theory and there’s experience. There’s no chance McLaren wins either title. Even if Max died tomorrow RB would still win.
williams is more american then haas and williams has history so glad doralton saved williams from going under and keeping the team alive to preserve franks team
Well I hope your simulations are wrong. Despite what my personal preferences are, the sport needs to see McLaren and Aston Martin rewarded for hard work, Williams move ahead, and even Alpine needs to do well. Otherwise the sport will suffer: Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari need to be challenged for real.
Haven't seen your channel before and don't know your credentials, but as a navigation engineer with plenty of simulation, experience the devils in the details of the simulation and you really don't give any details generally speaking, given the fluid dynamics of formula 1 in the teams and their developments, I find the even the idea of this to be absurd and talking about something that happened one time in 1000 i.e., 0.1% is even more silly There's no way you can run a simulation on Formula One like say madden 24 expect anything resembling reality In the end your results basically just look like 2024 with some funny tweaks in them /240229
I am very much aware that this is just a piece of fun and not really a viable way of predicting the actual performance for the cars. If that was possible then all the teams would have done it and would know how to win the championship! But cool to meet a navigation engineer, how long have you been doing that? Is engineering how you got into F1?
@@NotApplicableJB I'm sorry , i shouldn't have said it that way , it was never my intention to be rude!! Nothing wrong with your video's i like your video's!! Due to lack of time this morning i just wrote a quick comment , so again , sorry about that!! What i meant to say was , I cannot believe that the simulation can/will be accurate , but i'm certainly very curious about the outcome at the end of the F1 season , so i subscribed to your channel , and if it turns out that your 1000 × simulation is correct i'll be the first to give you all the credits 😉.
