I was happy that the panel didn't seriously consider the Japanese invading Hawaii, or even more ridiculously, the west coast. The logistical effort and manpower commitment for the Japanese would have enormous, while on the American side the islands could have been greatly reinforced with troops, aircraft, and submarines as part of the "hold the line" strategy that was discussed.
You're right. If the Japanese had taken Midway, Hawaii would have been reinforced to an extreme. All things considered, the Japanese would have gone back to their efforts to cut of Australia. The logistics favored them and they only were deterred the last time by the U.S. carriers. Great podcast. Entirly credible.
The analyses I've read about "Invade Pearl Harbor" scenarios boil down to: the IJN had the logistics to do either the invasion of the Dutch East Indies (with its crucial oil fields) *or* of Hawaii - they didn't have the shipping or supply capabilities to do both. Even keeping the farthest outposts of their defensive perimeter supplied was a task the IJN too often failed at - after a successful invasion, which was no sure thing, trying to keep Hawaii secure and supplied would likely have been too much for the Japanese to manage.
🙋🏽♂️I will 2nd you on this. Invasion of Hawaii never makes any sense. It's too far. Too well defended with an entire infantry division. And has a huge civilian population. Also, we are talking more than just Oahu. The logistics don't work. The manpower doesn't work. In practice the Japanese barely were able to support Wake Island. Even if they take Midway; US submarine forces from Pearl harbor will blockade.
For anyone not familiar with Montemayor's channel, his videos on this very topic, as well as other Pacific operations of WWII, are superlative masterpieces.
John Parshall is great! He was kind enough to respond to an email from me once and shared some thoughts at a professional level as to becoming a historian. John, if you’re reading this, thank you, your email meant a lot. Jim
Excellent discussion. Was surprised they did not discuss that both side's submarines were basically unheard of during the battle. Of course, Nautilus may have precipitated the IJN destroyer high-tailing it back to its fleet (for McClusky's DBs to see and tail), and an IJN sub finished off Yorktown and sunk Hammann, but both sides sortied considerable submarine assets to the area prior the attack, yet neither side made much contact during the actual battle.
"...even if it had lost catastrophically at the Battle of Midway, the United States Navy still would have broken even with Japan in carriers and naval air power by about September 1943. Nine months later, by the middle of 1944, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed a nearly two-to-one superiority in carrier aircraft capacity! Not only that, but with her newer, better aircraft designs, the U.S. Navy would have enjoyed not only a substantial numeric, but also a critical qualitative advantage as well, starting in late 1943." Aircraft carriers built, 1941 - 1945 US: 141 Japan: 17 Aircraft produced, 1941-1945: US: 324,750 Japan: 76,320.
What really happened at Midway, with the Yorktown getting repaired in two days, last minute preparations, dive bombers screaming toward their targets might have been rejected as a plot for a movie for being too unrealistic and in the realm of fantasy. But it really happened.
I kind of disagree. Japan couldn't have logistically supported an invasion of Hawaii at that distance from the home islands. They couldn't even regularly supply the islands they took during the Midway operation (Kiska and Attu), and those are a shorter distance from Japan. Midway, as a base for a Hawaiian invasion would have been totally inadequate. No major harbor or facilities and Japan didn't exactly have the equivalent of the Seabees. Having taken Midway, they might have found it constantly under aerial attack by land-based bombers from Hawaii and surrounded by US submarines.
You reached the same conclusion that most of the Japanese leadership did. They could take Midway, but taking Hawaii was almost impossible to take. Senior Japanese leadership also believed that Midway was likely to be retaken fairly quickly as they were not going to be able to logistically sustain it as while Midway was within range of Hawaii for Japanese aircraft, the American heavy bombers were within range of Midway from Hawaii.
With no one to truly challenge Japan they would've had breathing room to build train use newly acquired resources it would've been a true disaster. Now no doubt it would eventually succumb to US industrial might but at what cost. Not to mention how our indespencible efforts in Europe would've had to be put on the back burner at least.
I dont agree with that. They had the ability to mobilize troops to Hawaii, they choose not to drop them. The island had all the resources they needed to stay firm. The oil and fuel would have sustained the IJN while cutting the US's ability to field deep PAC opps.
@@aurorajones8481 What oil and fuel? The stuff in Pearl harbor? Do you think that stuff would have been left intact for the Japanese to capture? Not to mention any significant infrastructure?
@@matthewnoto9380Yeah, it would definitely have not been captured, a la Mayakop oil fields in USSR. The biggest impact would have been on the operations of US naval forces as it was THE major fuel node. Tbh, if the pearl harbor strike concentrated on fuel depots instead of ships, the resulting damage would have been immeasurably worse. At least a year's delay of operations in the Pacific for starters....
I highly recommend reading the book Shattered Sword by Jonathan Parshall and Anthony Tully. It’s an in depth look at the Japanese Navy through journals and interviews on the Battle of Midway. In it, they discuss the pacific strategy.
The man who made the “Courageous decision” to attack early and at range wasn’t Spruance it was Frank Jack Fletcher who was in overall command at Midway. Fletcher was in command of US carriers during the first three carrier on carrier battles in history taking on the IJN at the absolute height of their powers and coming away the winner 3-0. It’s criminal to talk about this battle and not even mention the American Admiral who was in command and who performed brilliantly.
Jon Parshall is an incredible historian, his book Shattered Sword is really good and so in depth, almost a courtroom like analysis of the battle. He also comes across so well in film this and in other podcast appearances
I can tell you how Americans would have reacted to a loss. Anger and resolve. The rage after Pearl Harbor, had not dissipated. My Grandfathers agreed to the ravenous need for revenge. Both fought from December 7 to VJ day. My maternal Grandfather was on the Light Cruiser Phoenix. My Paternal Grandfather was at the Brooklyn Navy Yard.
In coral sea, the Japanese had the light carrier sunk, shoksku heavily damaged. The zuikaku received no damage. But her air wing was decimated. So she was out of action because her air group needed replacements in pilots. Not because she was damaged
Yeah, and the Japanese seem to have had a weird system around that too. In the USN, we would have transferred planes and pilots from somewhere else to fill out a carriers air complement so it could go back out to sea with a full complement ASAP. In the IJN, they seem to have largely viewed their squadrons and pilots as part of the ship and refused to do much/any reallocation.
I had never seen anything from your channel, before today. But as soon as I saw the picture of John Parschall, I knew I was going to get accurate information.
I was looking this morning at the order of battle again and reminding myself of some of the oddities. While Hornet and Enterprise had intact air groups (VF-6, VT-6, VB-6, and VS-6 for CV-6 Enterprise and likewise for Hornet), Yorktown (CV-5) had a composite air group that included VF, VS, and VT-3 from the Saratoga (CV-3). The only squadron from Yorktowns own group is VB-5, while the Saratoga squadrons had apparently been training in San Diego for a while waiting for January's toroedo hit to be repaired. I was also thinking about the Flight to Nowhere episode, and a question occured to me that I dont remember seeing in Shattered Sword (I obviously need to reread it). Fletcher was in overall command, correct? So when Fletcher issued and signaled an order to attack the carriers that had been spotted, did that go from Yorktown to Enterprise to Hornet, or from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously? In other words, were Mitscher and Ring ignoring the brand new Spruance (because the order was telated through Enterprise), or were they ignoring the other black shoe admiral who had experience in carrier battles, Fletcher (an order from Yorktown to Enterprise and Hornet simultaneously)?
Sarah Paine’s The Wars for Asia gives a good account of Japanese thinking that systemically misunderstood how its own harsh actions brought down surprising wrath from the foe it expected to bargain with.
Thanks for the recommendation! Just a couple of months ago I finished a book that advertised "from the Japanese leadership position", because I wanted to learn more about their end-game. How did they think it was going to turn out? Frankly I was disappointed in the book. Whatever the high command was "thinking", what were they saying? Did they send serious diplomatic missions to the U.S. about ceasing hostilities and establishing detente?
After centuries of Western colonization Asian countries would have welcomed a powerful Japan. The Japanese, instead, became even worse oppressors. In a way China is repeating that mistake today.
Neptune's Inferno is another great book about the air and naval battles around Guadalcanal, it goes into great detail about each naval encounter and how air power plays such a important role.
Looking forward to your Undone version of the attack on Pearl Harbor. What if the Japanese fleet is detected before 12/7? What if the radar operators realize those are not B17’s to the North. If the alarm had been raised in time, how would the Hawaiian defenses have fared? All the fighters lined up in rows to be destroyed on the ground are instead scrambled to meet the Japanese in the air? Great work.
Bold! Daring! Remember though that Nimitz (who was in charge of fleet personnel in Washington before being sent out to the Pacific) KNEW about the massive buildup of the US fleet coming in the next 6-9 months. He could afford to take the chance of this fleeting opportunity.
If you can do Napoléon vs Wellington and Blucher at The Battle of waterloo make sure your experts are thoroughly read up. I don't want to hear that Bonny waited for the ground to dry up when his cannons couldn't be dragged across muddy wet fields quick enough
No mention of the Doolittle Raid. Would the Japanese have bothered with Midway if not for the Raid? I think they would have been involved consolidating their recent acquisitions instead of expanding their defense perimeter to the east.
Doolittle was not a motivator for Yamamoto and the Combined Fleet staff. The Midway plan had already been conceived and put together beforehand. It was already in the stages of being proposed "up the chain" in Tokyo, and was likely to be approved in any case. What Doolittle DID do, I think, was to help neutralize whatever objections remained elsewhere in the IJN (even Yamamoto had a boss, after all), and even more importantly, the skeptical and grudging Army. The Navy-vs-Army divide in senior Japanese decision-making is, I think, often glossed over in these types of discussions.
@@cragnamorra TY for the reply. It was comprehensive and informative. I was aware of the conflict between the IJN and the IJA but was not aware that Midway was in the mill prior to Doolittle.
The question if the U.S. lost the Midway battle is vague in that does it mean losing a number ofU.S. carriers or the island itself or both ? I'm not at all convinced Japan wanted Midway. The reason, solely, the Japanese attacked Midway was to eliminate the U.S. ability to attack the Japanese fleet. Nagumo wanted to destroy our carriers, the same objective as Peral Harbor. The carriers were some where 2 thirds to 3 fourths of the U.S. Navy's striking power. We were very fortunate our carriers were not at Peral on Dec 7. The Japanese, most unfortunate.
The island is basically bait. The plan is to use the threat to the island to draw out the carriers. It's only the fact our intelligence caught wind of the plan does things go awry. As far as the battle? The Hornet is already combat ineffective. The Air group is basically wasted. And Yorktown is probably sunk. It's very possible the Japanese win the battle and the carriers have to fall back to Hawaii to re-equip and wait for the arrival of USS Saratoga. Then try to counterattack. Us submarine forces make holding on to Midway untenable. From Pearl Harbor, they can easily blockade the island.
I've seen videos and read essays concerning this subject, and I find their arguments less than convincing. Japan did not have the logistical capability to consistently resupply outposts at the edges of territory they historically did control- and that was with minimal interdiction by Allied forces. Had the US lost the sea battle at Midway and Japan was able to invade and conquer Midway, they would have had a very small island outpost another several hundred miles east of Guam. However many troops deployed there would have needed food. The planes would have needed gas and ordinance. This would have had to be delivered several thousand miles from their home islands or about a thousand miles from their advanced bases at Rabaul and Truk. A handful of submarines could have made resupply VERY difficult. And an invasion of Hawaii would have magnified exponentially the difficulty Japan would have experienced invading and holding Midway.
Churchill was in Washington about July or so when he got the news about Tobruk. FDR asked "what can we do to help" Don't think FDR asks that question if the Japanese won at Midway.
41:48 Yak and La fighters, and Il-2 are great examples. There is countless variants of those ac. When Soviets got more and more lend lease aluminium, part by part the wooden parts were replaced by metal.
Great channel. Would love a discussion on if Confederate strategy, in the spring of 1863 after Lee's victory at Chancellorsville, had of focused on the western theater, staying on the defensive in the east and reinforcing the west against the offensive moves of Grant. Basically I'm referencing the famous Confederate White House meeting of Davis, his cabinet, and Lee where the decision was made to focus east and invade Pennsylvania over the objections of Postmaster Reagan. What is the likely outcome if a large segment of the Army of Northern Virginia (ANV) had been sent to deal with Grant? A fascinating scenario is, what if Jackson had not have died after Chancellorsville? What if Lee had assigned Jackson and his ANV corps west to deal with Grant. What if Lee himself headed west? Could Grant have been defeated outside of Vicksburg? If so, what would be been the implications?
I always wondered about Midway, how the battle was won by a thread, however I do believe in the inevitability of the US vistory and the use of the Atomic Bomb. Great show gentlemen, I love alternate history!
I've read from a interview that McCluskey was going to go in the direction of the destroyer anyway. Seeing it just confirmed his decision to continue the search in that direction.
@@johnpombrio he stated he was going to keep going regardless of fuel. He was determined to find the Japanese carriers. I believe that he would have done it.
Saratoga arrives in Pearl Harbor like on the 6th. And had to refuel and rearm there. It wouldn't have reached Midway till the 9th. They wound up transporting planes to both Hornet and Enterprise. Some of her aircraft also go to reinforcing Midway.
Excellent content and commentators. One correction - the Russians moved troops from the Far East to Moscow in late 1941 and these troops were used to throw the Germans back from the gates of Moscow. One observation - if the Japanese had taken Midway, it would have enhanced their reconnaissance abilities over Pearl Harbor, possibly leading to additional strikes, and forcing the US fleet to redeploy to the West Coast.
Those interested in a bit of history on RA Dr Chris Parry, watch the video 'BBC Sailor 06of12 1. Officer Territory'. from 1977 when he was a young sub Lieutenant. Very interesting look back in time.
An important note the American should have made. Yorktown was a direct sister to Enterprise so looked very much a like. Hornet was also laid out similarly so it would have been easy to mistake them. I'd hope he'd have mentioned that
When the one Japanese search 🔦 plane was delayed 4 June why didn’t Nagumo just dispatch another? He had over 200 so why not plug that gap instead of waiting a crucial 30+ minutes?
Japanese procedure was to use the cruisers' float planes for search, without using any of the carrier planes. I recall an exception or two but basically that was the accepted method. So the fact that there were a couple hundred planes theoretically available for search didn't matter.
Great job, fascinating discussion on the Battle of Midway. You folks have to do the Battle of Stalingrad. This was a pivotal battle in WW2, and initiated the downfall of the Third Reich.
God idea. What if Hitler had left the operations in Russia to the genereals. Had the generals entering the Caucusus had full authority over their forces, could they have reached the oilfields, or at least denied them to the Soviets?
It would be interesting to track how the term "dive bomber" became part of the American vocabulary after Midway. I know the B&O named a yard transfer job "the dive bomber" for the way that the locomotives would "dive" on the rear of a freight train to "pick-off" the caboose and rear crew to take them back to where they started. I can imagine a cocktail with the name "dive bomber."
Thank you for the discussion. Love Johnathan Parshall's presentation. The alternatives, there are thousands of possibilities. Within two years America will have 2x-3x the fleet the Japanese have
Hi. Great presentation. I have a question. I believe dive bomber planes travel much faster than destroyer ships. What is meant by the dive bombers "following" the ship? Thanks
Midway was just one of the Pacific turning points. Two others were Guadalcanal and New Guinea. Another question to ask is if Midway would even have happened without the Doolittle raid.
I once interviewed the guy up at Nebraska Avenue who kept all those intercepts. I asked him if I could see the intercept of the Japanese message about AF having a fresh water problem. He looked at me and smiled, then shook his head. I asked why, since everything else was available. He admitted they didn't have it! I asked if it had been somehow lost or if the story was cover and deception. Shook his head. No idea.
10:30 That's an unusual Nimitz photo, in profile. I don't think have seen that one before. Kinda casts a bit different aspect of his appearance. Nice inclusion.
Wonder what the affect of type 93 Long Lance torpedoes loose below the main decks of the IJN Carriers have on the massive explosions that were detonated after 500 lb bombs penetrated their decks. Even winning at Midway it was fortunate that Makawa didn't know the whereabouts of our Carriers the night he sank 5 Allied Cruisers in Guadalcanal Sound or he would've ruined our first offensive in the Pacific by going after the transports. That would've been a setback.
With a total catastrophic loss at midway would have got Yamamoto his 18 months of victories before Japan starts losing bad. American losses was replaced fairly rapidly double our losses we were still putting more ships out than lost Japan never managed to replace key losses. Sadly The Pacific theater was busy work compared to Europe.
US torpedoes were defective, none here at Midway were known to work. If the Yorktown had gotten 1 or 2 boilers back on line, it might have been saved. The Grumman 4F4 Wildcats would be replaced with 6F6 Hellcats which were much better. The USN did not coordinate its air groups well. But, fight well they did!
There's two important battles that I'd like to see. Marathon. What happens to the development of Western Civilisation if the Persians win? Two: The Tueteborg Forest. Rome defeats the Germanic tribes and annexes Germania into the Roman Empire. The consequences on the development of western Europe.
At 26:00 comes the alternate history speculation. EVEN THOUGH the US had broken the codes and had foreknowledge, anyone looking at the forces opposed to each other would have bet on the Japanese. They had more carriers. They had more experienced pilots. They had better tactics. They had better aircraft. They had better torpedoes. What the US had was courage, aggression, and amazing luck.
Yes. People sometimes treat intel as if it was some magic that wins battles all by itself. It's not. Often, enemy capabilities and intentions are pretty obvious anyway. Parsall does a wonderful job explaining that in his book.
What if the US fliers, in their inferior planes, had not essentially knocked out Zuikaku and Shokaku at Coral Sea and the Japanese showed up with SIX FLEET CARRIERS at Midway?
Pearl Harbor is well within range of Japanese naval recon and bombers. If the USA lost all 3 carriers, while concentrating on Port Moresby, the Japanese navy could also begin a blockade of Pearl Harbor. With extra fuel, Zeroes could make even the trip. Of course if Japan had carrier aircraft, they could take the lion's share of blocking the sea lanes to Pearl, along with the submarine fleet.
You forgot to mention the bombing of Darwin after pearl harbour. If Midway was lost New guinea wouldve fallen a string of Indonesian Islands would have taken until 47 to clear
