No video :(

Keeping it Simple | Ep.38: Are We Fourth Turning Japanese? Or Is It Different this Time?

Подписаться 11 тыс.

Просмотров 10 тыс.

50% 1

Neil Howe joins Mike and Harley for a discussion of cycles and saeculi.
For more information, visit www.simplify.us
Investing involves risk including potential loss of principal.
Simplify Asset Management Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Simplify Asset Management Inc. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the Commission, nor does it indicate that the advisor has attained a particular level of skill or ability. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy. This content is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice.
This content is solely for informational purposes and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. These materials are made available on an “as is” basis, without representation or warranty. The information contained in these materials has been obtained from sources that Simplify Asset Management Inc. believes to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. This information is only current as of the date indicated and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Neither the author nor Simplify Asset Management Inc. undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.

Опубликовано:

29 авг 2024

Ссылка:

Скачать:

Готовим ссылку...

Добавить в:

Мой плейлист

Посмотреть позже

Комментарии : 28

@nirvaanmeharchand5896 Месяц назад

Great guest and interview. Thank you.

@TheChinaPlay Месяц назад

Every conversation with Mike Green seems like a debate over who is more intelligent. Do you want to be right or do you want to make money? Harley can't opine as eloquently as Green, few of us can, but the less he says the smarter he seems to me as Green doesn't know the first rule about digging a hole, to stop digging! Another interesting interview from Howe who is always refreshing to listen to.

@joshc3159 Месяц назад

I enjoyed the lively debate. Respectful challenge and disagreement create clarity. If you genuinely have something of value to share, you'll welcome thoughtful criticism as if forces you to understand your own thoughts. If what you have to share is fragile, then yes, avoid debate.

@TheChinaPlay Месяц назад

@@joshc3159 Okay, I agree with you to an extent. During my doctoral program I always welcomed debate on research and theory and thought it was a hallmark of a good academic program. However, I single out Green because he seem to be motivated by being right and looking smart over actual discovery of truth. I've been watching him on YT for years, and he ALWAYS has to have the last word and ALWAYS talks just as much or more than the guest. He is brilliant, no doubt, but at some point the lack of bedside manner gets old.

@ericlaukonen9911 Месяц назад

Great insight and conversation.

@lwc1983 26 дней назад

Fascinating discussion!

@TheRealLanceCummings Месяц назад

Harley, you're absolutely right that cycles are global, but at the same time country specific. Demographics (no surprise) is the huge driver. If you haven't, please read "End Times" (not a religious tome) by Peter Turchin, a proponent of something called 'Cliodynamics'. Agree or not, it's an interesting theory of cycles.

@user-ks4sq8du3k Месяц назад

Social engineering is what explains it. 2 40-year periods. One of centralization split in blocks of 20 years. One of the order, then an unravelling of that order.. followed by another 40 years of decentralisation, split into 2 20 years. Order followed by a period of unravelling.

@scottdavis5749 Месяц назад

Wow he is correct on GenX . 55 year old and latchkey kid. I was not overprotective but didn’t give my kids the freedom I had. I just didn’t want them doing and making some of the mistakes I did.

@paulbellefleur1115 Месяц назад

Fantastic

@George-jm4rn Месяц назад

Mike once again deflects being wrong on inflation by ridiculing Harvey albeit in a good natured way. Even Powell has acknowledged his error, something arrogant Green can't bring himself to do.

@dudelit6482 Месяц назад

Everything except gasoline is like 30 to 50% more expensive but there is and wasn't any inflation 😅

@megowopwop8545 Месяц назад

so true, as smart as he is, humility is not a characteristic he's learnt yet.

@fbinformant Месяц назад

Not as bad as the Peter Zeihan humiliation arch but still annoying 😅

@jamesdeininger3759 Месяц назад

@@fbinformantI love Zeihan, but someone should make a compilation of all the times he said Biden would win the election 😂 He should stick to demography and supply chains lol

@TheRealLanceCummings Месяц назад

It all comes down to how much elite overproduction takes place. Elite overproduction, compared to available positions for elites, *always* causes discontent. And as they say in the military, "Shit flows downhill." Ancient societies may have had (almost certainly did) less of a sense of linear progress (where everyone expects their lot to improve noticeably over time) than later, "modern" societies, but people in all societies (and all societies are pyramidal), are extremely sensitive to losing their social footing. In fact, people are much more sensitive to that than they are to some perception that they are not getting ahead of anyone else. "I may not be able to climb, but god help rulers if me and too many of my friends perceive 'slippage'."

@harryj1081 Месяц назад

arent inflation simply similar to physics phenomenon? overshoots and undershoot, unless stealthily manipulated by the money printers with higher highs and higher lows.

@retvrn777 Месяц назад

Overprotective parents show up in overprotective politics but checks and balances hurt rather than help

@seanwieland9763 Месяц назад

11:26 Abe Lincoln the tyrant who suspended habeas corpus?

@jacknaneek1681 Месяц назад

This guy has dreamed of a theory an axis, though it’s all backed up by fact it’s totally predictable. It’s a squishy and mushy is oatmeal.

@dds9706 Месяц назад

Sorry for dropping one of the worst words in English... yes, you've guessed it, the K-word... "Karl Marx." Reading Karl Marx (who was an economist after all) would probably shed more light on this conversation than bringing up sketchy notions such as "Generation X" or other similar concepts. People react to their environment. After WWII, the economy was booming, which led to "Peace, Sex, and Rock 'n' Roll." Today, this generation is indebted, facing global warming, the opioid crisis, the rise of AI, underpaid jobs, and exorbitant rents and house prices. No wonder this generation is anxious and depressed.

@thaaatheef Месяц назад

historians would very much dispute this notion that we can reduce social changes into such "turnings" or cycles. &, In some ways, it becomes self-reinforcing to classify people & can even divide us further. simply reflect how often people use rhetoric like "oh well theyre a millenial" or "im gen z, its what we do!" I do find it useful to try & understand how various people interact with their environment during a given time, but I would simply place more emphasis on the environment personally I am genuinely baffled why so many in finance are attracted to his ideas in ways that they might even base their own investments along those lines...just very flimsy points

@TheRealLanceCummings Месяц назад

An awful lot of seemingly anecdotal stuff said by Neil that just wouldn't hold up to any even cursory examination. For example, (talking about the 'G.I. Generation') "They were communal." Oh, really? They were incredibly tribal and racist, truth be told. This was the generation that, post-war, came home and red-lined huge chunks of American urban real estate, and who built superhighways smack through the middle of what wasn't deemed worth red-lining. Many of these "it was better back then" stories sound great. But the closer you look, the more you think, "Plus ça change." And it was *that generation, not the Boomers, who reacted so viscerally to Brown v Board of Ed, and to the Civil Rights Legislation that, LBJ correctly surmised, "... will cost us the South for as far into the future as I can see". It was adults, then, born in the 1920s and 1930s, who reacted like that. It was *that generation, born pre-war, that peppered the USA with "Impeach Earl Warren" billboards from coast to coast.

@devinwest3447 Месяц назад

What generation of congress people wrote and passed the 1964 and 1965 civil rights amendments. Also what generation passed the civil rights amendments in the 1950’s when there were no protests demanding so. If you are talking about the south exclusively then your point has merit but i doubt thats what you mean.

@TheRealLanceCummings Месяц назад

@@devinwest3447 Generations overlap of course. What you describe in the mid 60s is merely the older one giving way to a newer one. Civil rights amendments passed in the 1950s? Really? America was fighting a genocidal war against indigenous natives on TV then, mostly, and enforcing Jim Crow in the south.