thank you for always taking these wonderful amazing videos with the horses up close. I love this horse!! I think Charlatan is amazing a fast but I also love Nadal. Both horses are gorgeous!! Bob baffert has some gorgeous talented horses and he's such an amazing trainer nothing but respect for Mr. Baffert!
Wow! What a big, handsome & powerful horse! During the breeze footage as he just took off I thought, “There must be some Secretariat in his background!” And what do ya know? There it was! I’m really liking Charlatan! He seems very calm, cool, collected & smart.
John Coppers Thanks so much for that information, John! I’ll certainly look into RAN - I’ve never heard of him. Has racing been shut down entirely because of Covid-19?
@@JayCNehfracing Since the derby will be postpone until September, Nadal will get the chance grow strong. Cezanne by Curlin can be a surprise, Curlin get stronger in age.
If he stays sound his size will help him just don't know if he's fast enough authentic runs the same time and he seems to be more Nimble on his feet Nadal is a gamer he does not like letting anyone by
It's been weird to say the least saddling up at Golden Gate with no spectators Jay. Nice video, yes Bob is loaded, this horse looks as good as Authentic and Nadal
Thx for sharing and posting. So hard to know what's going to happen regarding Derby timing. We'll know more tomorrow. Separately, enjoyed watching Big Hoof Dynamite on the 14th. I realize he's not yours any more, but he's got some magic. The name, the running style. I see him as stakes placed (at least) and with a long career at SA and Del Mar if he stays healthy.
Your videos are extraordinary-great attention to the right details and artfully composed-you could be a successful videographer for real! Really appreciate these up- close looks at the Derby contenders. Looks like a good crop-will be interesting to see the effects of postponing the race until Sept...Hope they can find other races in the meantime.
Thank you, but Cynci is the videographer and she does a great job. I do the editing with Final Cut Pro X. I hear they are adding some point races for the Derby
My goodness Jay Nehf!! With that pedigree behind him?? WOWZERS! !!! Mr. Prospector, Secretariat, Something Royal for some speed and Northern Dancer, just on the Sires side!! And on the dams side, again a few familiar names, Mr. Prospector, Dr. Fager, for some sped again and Northern Dancer. I think if he gets the points, and gets to run at Churchill Downs, he just might give all the favorites a great challenge or possible upset. Stay Safe, you and your family, as I wish Cinci and her family as well!! Many Blessings for continued great health. Best Wishes from Ontario, Canada, your Crazy Canuck friend, Jenn.
@@JayCNehfracing Having worked at Kawartha +Breeding Farms for 2 years, I learned a lot about pedigree lines as well as delivering any type of emergency. They handled it all. I guess that's why people bring me their mares 2 to 2 1/2 months before delivery. They trust me to make the right call because I had great teachers. Stay safe everyone!! See you at the races Jay!! Your Canuck friend,Jenn,
Speightstown maybe a sprinter but he has sired some classic distance winners in Haynesfield,Golden Ticket,Delagation who set a record going a 1 1/4 on the poly track at Woodbine and then Force to Pass
The more you look into a pedigree, the more variables you will find; more routers, more sprinters and so on. 50 yrs ago popular breeding practice was a speed stallion on a routing mare. And here's something to consider: if every horse in the 1 1/2 milev Belmont field was by a sprinting sire, the winner of that Belmont would, by default, be a son of a sprinter. Would that suddenly make the stallion a sire of route horses?
@Julio Chavez -- Oh but Julio, animals re-incarnate, just as humans do. Secretariat will return, right when we need a hero most. He was with us in the midst of a nasty recession and he lifted spirits right to the heavens, that hero horse.
Several of the horses this year are monsters! They look like they're older than they are. I swear I saw one 2 year old who looked like he already had stallion's crest.
You keep mentioning the “neck strap” it’s not - it is just the reins double looped around the horses neck so that if he spooked or reared up suddenly while being walked he doesn’t get his front legs caught in it and hurt himself At 4:53 you can clearly see Bob unbuckle the reins unloop them and rebuckle.
Jay C. Nehf No jay you watch it again - it’s the reins. A neck strap’s purpose is for a rider (a beginner rider really) to use for balance so they don’t hang on the horses mouth it’s of no use to anybody on the ground so why (if it were a neck strap) take it off when saddling and not keep it on for the jockey. Ask Baffert next time I bet you a case of toilet paper that I’m right.
It's really cool to hear comments like yours, glad to see you noticed Dr Fager. I didn't comment on it in the video because I figured no one would care. Personally, I love him. Ther's a great book about him (google it) and it's a good read.
It is not a neck strap,but the reins loop around and buckle on the underside. (This way if the horse became unruly less chance to put a Hoover or leg through it )You can see Bob Baffer unbuckled the rein and buckle them back.
Jay, another great video....this horse has already run two races fast enough to win the Kentucky Derby.....what is freaky about this horse is that his Beyer Speed Figure went up (105 to 106) as the competition and the distance was increased....the next fastest Derby horse is Tiz The Law whose top Beyer is 100.......I was also impressed by how relaxed Charlatan looked before and after the race....cool as a cucumber..... Baring a bad step (or bad weather) there is no reason this horse shouldn't win the Kentucky Derby by 5+ lengths....to me, the interesting puzzle left to solve is who will come in second in the Kentucky Derby.....will it be Authentic, Tiz The Law or Nadal.....the rest of the field looks weak to me.... Other than Tiz The law, I don't like any of the East Coast horses....I also think Honor A.P. is overrated.... reminds me of Hofburg in 2018.....lots of potential/talent but he doesn't have the competitive spirit needed to win races....he has run three races to date and he has only won one maiden race...
@John Coppers So true....as best I can tell, Baffert gets about 50% of the best two years olds year in and year out, the other California trainers get 25% and the East Coast trainers get the remaining 25%...... I remember watching a video done by Matt and Brian (HorseCenter) about three or four months ago and they put together their top 12 Derby horses and not a single one was trained by Baffert....I asked them what they were smoking....these type of lists are the product of wishful thinking (IMO) by people who dislike Baffert.... The Eclipse voters as a whole are very anti-Baffert and one of the most embarrassing episodes for them is when 52 Eclipse voters voted for the journeyman Accelerate over an undefeated Triple Crown winning Apollo Curse breaking Justify....Baffert also did not win the Outstanding Trainer award that year.... The Eclipse voters remind me of giggling high school students voting for class President rather than a serious group of people trying to be fair and reward excellence....they can be rather shameful when Baffert is involved...
@John Coppers Many people grade female horses on a curve which drives me crazy....if they win one race against the boys (like Zenyatta) they think they are the greatest horse since Secretariat....
Thanks TS. Personally, I think Beyers and the like are worthless frauds. If you read the details of how they came up with this "formula" you would see that it is purely arbitrary assignment of nnumbers. In the end, the horse that wins gets the highest Beyer- duh. Take a look at Trakus. It is pure data, no speculation or magic formula. You have to actually work at making sense of the data.
Jay - WHAT an AMAZING camera - I think this VIDEO was BETTER than anything networks put out...TOP NOTCH...Well weve got a SEPT Derby....any thoughts? One real silly question - Why did this horse wear a neck strap into paddock but not to race? Its been a while since I was on backside but cant figure that one out. Again - BRILLIANT CAMERA WORK - what did you shoot this with?? Hope your BigFoot is well - so nice to see what REAL backsiders do
We use a Sony Handycam 4K. I have no idea why Baffert sends them to the paddock with a neck strap only to remove, but he does leave it on sometimes. It's for the jock so maybe he leaves it on for one rider but not the others. For my riders, Brice Blanc likes but Flavien Prat does not.
I have a future Kentucky Derby win bet on Authentic @ 6-1. I am assuming this ticket will carry over into the first Saturday in September ? Can anyone confirm? Thanks! First Saturday in September, bummer!
Bob Baffert racing stable is a well oiled machine with oil type dollars finding the top horses for classic races and graded level competition . It’s akin to what Wayne Lukas did when he was in his prime conditioning days . For me it’s more attractive you get a $17,000 freak that gives them trouble for a couple of years
Sources are saying that CD will make an announcement in the morning that the Ky. Derby will be postponed until the first Saturday in September, September 5'th. 2020. CD to hold a press conference at 9am Tuesday. 😞
@John Coppers Louisville needs the fans. That plays a huge part of their income. We just have to deal with it even if we don't like it or not have a Derby at all.
I'm anxious to see how Charlatan does at 1 1/8th. His female line traces clearly to Cequillo( 56 b) a daughter of Princequillo. His top half is so big compared to his legs... I hope he remains sound. Seems to have a grace about him. Thanks, Jay, for posting this video review. Looking forward to the next one your cover. ;-)
I use Captain Kaziemierz Bobinski and Count Stefan Zamoyski Family Tables of Racehorses, which today are known as the Bobinski Tables. I was just curious where you got 56 b for cequillo.
He will show what hes got but i myself wouldn't put him up there with authentic or Nadal not yet I think Bob is going to ship him and not run him against authentic in the Santa Anita maybe the Arkansas Derby but that would put him head-to-head with nadal that's not good to speed horses on the front end pressing one another no doubt he will qualify for the Derby then all three will have to run
Wow, will Bob Baffert EVER retire? Thank you so much for the great videos!! But putting off the Derby till September sucks, everything will be too different. Not fair to owners, trainers, horses and jockeys! When would the Belmont be, New Year's Eve?
Iv got a in side at winstare i was told they my run the durby but no spectators and they did cancel the Steeplechase race Which is held a week after a course, Keeneland sale was canceled. So I hope set these good Colts get to run because Like you said, there is a bunch of nice horses this year.
How will Bob and the rest of the trainers keep there colts in top form, at their peak, till September? So much could happen to the very best horses. Love Authentic and Charlatan.
@@JayCNehfracing I'm worried already Bob's horses won't maintain their form and a total surprise outside will won the Derby. Bob knows that too, maybe he has a couple more colts in his barn who are just beginning to run. So nerve-wracking!
This is a very interesting pedigree. It emphasizes the versatility of Mr Prospector who was a medium sized horse and could be bred to any type of mare and produce runners. But overall this is more a speed pedigree than a stamina pedigree. Not a lot of horses that could win in G1 company at classic distances.
@John Coppers Great points. I just believe that up much closer is the Mr Prospector> Gone West> Speightstown on the sire side and on the dam's sire side you have Mr Prospector>Fappiano>Quiet American. In addition, you have Dr Fager, who held the mile record for years although as a fully mature horse ran farther. Chieftain as I remember was at best a miler but I think excelled most in sprints. What I like best is Terlingua>Storm Cat. His Dosage number also seems too high to me. But in the final analysis it is the individual and we know the horse has speed. Whether he has the mechanics will most likely determine his distance capabilities.
All you can do is the best you can with what you have to work with and have a tremendous amount of good fortune. Having wealthy owners doesn't hurt either. You've chosen a tough game. That's one of the big reasons for the drug problems in horse racing, guys trying to take short cuts. .
I don't know any of those guys and I hope they are never allowed on a race track again. Good riddance. I try not think about having to compete against those guys.
Hey Jay thanks for filming. Why does he have a chain under his upper lip. A pretty leggy horse, I think he is a real professional bit might be risking soundness if pushed too hard.
That's called a lip chain and you'll see almost all these horses have it in the paddock. It puts pressure on the gums under the lip where there is a pressure point. It helps with unruly or panicky horses and the paddock is a high stress place with the crowd and so forth. I don't like to use but many times it the right thing to do. You really have to be careful you don't abuse it.
Some horses will get the tongue over the bit and then the rider has a serious lack of control. Also, many horses can play around with the tongue and cause the soft palate to displace and interfere with breathing. The tongue tie keeps them from pulling the tongue back.
@@JayCNehfracing yes, I should have mentioned that the horse gets the tongue over the bit and then that is when the chances for breathing problems significantly increase.
The rule is the same everywhere- interfere and you get placed behind the horse you did it too. The Derby should be treated the same as every other race.
Look at 3:20 in the video. You will clearly see the neck strap with its buckle hanging at the bottom of the loop. At 4:52 Bob reaches under his neck and unbuckles the neck strap and the valet, on the off side of the horse, takes the neck strap off the horse. And THEN you see Bob fiddle with the reins buckle.
@@JayCNehfracing understandable. I'm very old school myself; and if postponing the Derby means giving all of them more time to mature, well, I wouldn't have a big problem with that.
@John Coppers personally, I don't believe in turning them out "totally" unless you're going to retire them. I like modified turnout, where you jog or breeze them lightly in the morning, cool them out, then turn em out with boots and bandages. They're less apt to go crazy this way and I think they stay in better shape.
@horselover yes, and no. With the Derby much later in the year, the early bloomers lose their usual advantage; but, now late bloomers have a real chance. We'll see.
The eternal question: can he get the distance at that weight, especially with that sprinters pedigree? He sure can run, but can he run far enough? An extra quarter mile can be a long haul.
@John Coppers another thought about Charlatan...to me he looks quite young yet, in that he's still built downhill (i.e.,rump high). If he were in my barn I'd give him more time to grow into that body; but, if he can run now, they'll probably go for it now. And, yes, I'm a very conservative horseman... ;)
Ironic name, he's no charlatan (opposite of authentic ) he's the real deal , the one us fans of Speightstown have been waiting for . Looks like Bob has 4 aces ( I'm including last years Derby winner :-)
I don't believe that the triple crown is a good deal for the horses. Too many horses run in the first leg, and then when the Preakness happens, only about six of them return for the second race. Does the stress of the Derby preparation actually do any particular good for the ten to thirteen also rans that move along to Belmont, Del Mar, or Saratoga later in the year? Aren't there some horses that would fare better in their racing career if there was less emphasis on looking for a Derby horse? Perhaps if there was more objectivity regarding the positioning of horses in races, there would be less negative results involving horse injuries and fatalities that are currently threatening the future of the racing industry.
Good questions! Complicated answers. The stakes are really high; if you win, the breeding rights are worth millions. And sometimes longshots win, like Country House last year. I think the points system is a poor fix for trying to maintain a quality field. A good horse that runs second to a strong Derby favorite, like Honor AP did with Authentic, earns just 20 points while a lesser horse could win a stakes over a lesser field and earn 50 points. But it's much inferior horse.
I have greatly appreciated the insights into racing that you have offered through your racing videos. I have a tvg account and I feel inspired now to examine race replays in more depth than before. I also noticed that your horse won a good race. I wish you the best as a trainer, and I look forward to your videos and commentary. Maybe if I become a good handicapper I will try to share some of my success on youtube!
how will that affect the race? Horses like Eight Rings will have time to get back in shape, others will have time to grow up and get bigger and stronger. Could be a wehole new field of horses.
I could be wrong but I think bafford may have one or two Alphas I know Nadal is watch how he dominates pony horses just don't know if he's fast enough to beat authentic and or charlatan but I guarantee you he rips his guts out trying
Charlatan now has 100 points after winning the Ark. Dery 1 and Nadal has 150 after winning Ark. Derby 2. Would have been there in person I live a mile from Oaklawn and go a lot.
thank you for the offer. This virus has put a lot of things on hold for a while but be patient. I have a very small stable and don't need help right now but I would advise you, in any case, to work for a big top notch outfit like Baffert or john Sadler or John Shirrefs. Your career would make much fatser progress that way. Where are you located?
@@JayCNehfracing located in Oklahoma. Rather relocate. No I'd rather work for you if the day ever present itself. I'm a fan of you like you're a fan of Bob's as I can see. Keep me in mind. Not about the career. Just learning and the passion
Nadal and authentic have beaten really good. 3 year olds I'm sure there are more and I wish you luck on your bet I'm not saying he's going to win it all or he's not just saying he hasn't proved anything yet hopefully he runs in the Santa Anita and he can see how he does against authentic 22 and change 45 change then when he goes on with it we will know
He's only run one mile I didn't see no problem with authentic kicking away from them horses in the San Felipe when he came to him you say no. Almost had the lead I see the same thing with charlatans when was the last time he was behind anybody don't know if they have to rate if they can get away with 23s on the front end instead of 22 and 47 instead of 46 may just go wire-to-wire again you're not going to convince me charlatans is a better horse until he beats better horses and I'm sure he will
@John Coppers yeah I will see it that way when he shows me that I don't think looking at authentic he will have any problem going longer and that horse came to him in the top of the stretch and he ran off and left him they could have run around three times and that horse was never going by him
Yeah I seen some videos he does look like a nice horse ive run horses for 30 years im a big fan of all that you are saying. But i know guts not size of heart and every now and the you get a star out of 2 donkeys
I absolutely agree I guess you need both hearts a big one and a competitive one that's what I see with nadal and to some degree with authentic though he hasn't really been tested yet I've seen really nice horses in workouts that are scared to pass other horses I don't think charlatan will have that problem but we'll see
I enjoy these brakedowns of races and info on these Colts. I fucking hate the shitty political ads though....theyre so off putting. Anyway.......CHARLATAN is a BEAST!!! too sad this Derby was moved although rightly so. If all these horses stay healthy it'll be fun to handicap this year because u just go down the Top 20 right now and there's gonna be a ton of pace. Im sure Bob may see if he can get 2 more races in before September. Perhaps he may try and sit off in one.
It will be very interesting to see how these trainers jockey for position, so to speak, between now and September. I hear they are going to add some points races
@@JayCNehfracing Look how fast things changed last year; injuries, laminitis, colic, etc. With God's help, these horses will retain their form and give us some heart stopping performances.
Beyond The Smile... My smile is happy, pleasant, and graceful too. If you could see the things it hides from you. You can't because its on the outside. The perfect place to handle disguise. Check the inside And you would, probably scream. Not me I just treat it like a dream. All the unhappiness, misfortunes and sadness. I just interprets them as gladness. That is how I truly learn to cope. Or by now I would be a the end of a rope. So the next time you see someone smiling at you. Just smile back so they know you have been there too. Dsprincemarley
It is unnatural but some very good research has shown it is effective. It keeps them from pulling the tongue back and interfering with breathing or getting the tongue over the bit
Im sorry Jay until horse racing actually cleans itself up I cant believe that Baffert can continually have all these horses out shine every other trainer. The jimsen weed story put so much doubt in my mind about Baffert I cant forget it. He's the only trainer that can take lightly raced horses and win major races easily. In over 100 years of the Derby Justify was the only winner to not have raced as a 2 year old. Has Baffert invented a new technique that has never been done by any other trainer in the history of racing. I shake my head all the time when I see and hear his horses shine. True they are well bred but so has thousands of other horses races in other trainers stables. Nadal was a perfect example this past weekend of a well bred horse lightly raced and crushed the field. I know there are going to be naysayers and reply I have no clue blah blah blah. This past week and a bit since Servis and Navarro were busted actually brought out trainers complaining about the fairness of the sport. There is no way those 2 thoroughbred trainers are the only ones and I will be happy to see who else has been using SGF1000. Thinking for years people cheat then actually knowing is two different things.
Consider this: Baffert and his entire operation are geared up for one single purpose- win the Kentucky Derby. He has the money behind him to buy just about every yearling at Keeneland that looks like a legitimate Derby contender, everyone else gets what's left. He can train his best horses in company with his second stringers and get precisely the work he wants- hang off the flank on the outside then pull away at the eighth pole is classic Baffert. And he's been singularly successful. Yet he gets beat most of the time. Last year was a real wash for him. Drugs? I can't say. Does he push the legal limit like most trainers do? In my opinion, scopolamine would be a poor choice for enhancing a horse's performance. Regardless, you have to start with an athlete capable of getting the job done and he's got a barnful of them.
Baffert looks to be locked and loaded...again for the 3 year old season. Too bad it took him ten years to agree that horse racing needs Federal intervention to keep it on the level. Let's see how his horses run when, and if...that's still a BIG "if"...horses in the U.S. are forced to run without any latent drugs whatsoever. All his horses look the same...BIG...MUSCULAR...and they don't get tired. You don't do that as consistently as he does with just hay, oats , and water.
@John Coppers Key word "never" been busted. Tiger Woods was the best of his game as well never caught using steroids or PEDs but the whispers were always there. I loved seeing him destroy the fields in golf week after week but I know theres no human that is that much better than anyone else for that long of a period without pharmacological treatments. Bad example I know but until theres no more chatter or charges regarding peds in racing I have my doubts as well.
@John Coppers I would love to be in complete agreement with you. But Mr. Baffert will some day be found to be just as complicite as Servis and Navarro, except his magic formula, Baffert's, is one step, and many dollars $$$$ ahead of the authorities. Do you really believe he can improve ANY horse he gets his hands on?? I don't. And when it happens, and it will happen given the newfound Federal attention, it will either give the sport a new lease on life, or, bury it. As a professional numbers analyst I can assure you he, and many other trainers regularly batting 30% wins and 50%++ i.t.m. are using artificial firepower. The owners are just as complicite.
@John Coppers I appreciate the articulate and well reasoned rebuttal. Maybe Bob Baffert was the wrong person to single out. He has been a very generous contributor to good will in the sport given his personality and charisma. Maybe he is a genius. I have no evidence to the contrary. But Arrogate crushed a 1 1/4 mile track record in his Travers that had stood for decades off of four races. Justify's 6 race streak was just as improbable for me. Baffert aside, maybe he is leagues better than the hundreds of top trainers and horseman in history, how can a Chad Brown (Frankel horses showed the precise propensity) quicken at the end of a mile so ferociously almost every single start? How can he win races at meets at a 30% clip and i.t.m. at a 60%++ clip? Frankel horses looked the same physically...muscular...calm beyond reason...and could jump out of their skins in a given race to break track records with ease. I'm a $2 and $1 bettor. These are not the musings of a degenerate gambler. I am a horse lover first and foremost -- I grew up surrounded by horses -- and love(d) horse racing for many years, but am now apathetic at best because of the racing world's reluctance to eliminate drugs from the equation.
Obviously has talent. Not the best stride in the world, a little wonky on his left front. The Kentucky Derby will just not be the same this year - even if it is run.
Please stop with the chains in the mouth..hurting these young babies...do more extra training on handling while they are learning this...their little brains are like sponges..they can learn...just do better training. ..
