Limits to Growth Revisited: What kind of regeneration is possible? - Dennis Meadows with Daniel Wahl

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On August 5th, 2020, I had the opportunity to speak with a person who's life work has set the context for much of my professional activity over the last 20 years. Dennis Meadows and his co-authors accelerated the conversation about our unsustainable trajectory with the publication of 'Limits to Growth' in 1972 and he has contributed to this debate ever since.
What we talked about (I hope to add a link to a full transcript in September):
Have we left it too long to change our trajectory and what choices can we still make?
D.M. "The notion that there is some kind of fairly attractive sustainable society ahead of us if we can only find it is now a fantasy. The global population, its use of materials, its generation of wastes has grown so far above the sustainable capacity of the planet that there is nothing ahead [of the kind] that the sustainable utopia people are talking about." ...
- I outlined my vision of co-creating diverse regenerative cultures everywhere and asked Prof. Meadows directly whether he thought I am too optimistic
D.M. "You covered a lot of ground with your narrative. Some of which seemed - to me - quite fantastical and other [aspects] perhaps realistic ..."
- I asked about the significance of the bioregional scale for creating systemic integration in the aim to create more regenerative systems
- What changes have you observed in attitude and actions since the publication of Limits to Growth?
- I asked Prof. Meadows about his opinion on 'C.H.O.N.' (redesigning our material culture to be based on predominately these 4 elements and powered by renewables.
D.M. "Technology is not an independent value free force that comes in, looks around, sees a problem and solves it. Technology is value laden tool, developed and wielded by people who in most cases have their own short term interests."
...
DM: "A central problem of our societies - rich and poor - is that we have developed a set of institutions, expectations and other social mechanism fundamentally based on and dependent on the assumption of continued growth."
...
DM: "Another think to do is to start imagining other indicators of success."
DM: "What you are asking really is will this growing group of people interested in alternatives rise up in numbers of power quickly enough to enforce proactive limitations on growth, or will they be too late, in which case we will just sit here and wait for nature to decide how it is going to limit our growth."
DM: "I spent 50 years trying to help people understand their realistic options and choosing a bit more wisely for the long-term. I would say by and large I have failed. I don't think the planet is going to evolve any different from my having been around that it would have if I had not been conceived."
- We also spoke briefly about some insight that I learned from Prof. Meadows late former wife, Donella Meadows and I asked him to comment on some of them (00:51)
- the need to draw insights from multiple paradigm because all of them are limited
- I asked Prof Meadows "If you imagine that we take the more positive path, what do you imagine life would be like for people in a hundred years from now? (00:59)
DM: ... "The planet will have a climate very different from what it has now, similar to what it has in the past. Since our civilisation, our modes of agricultural production, our ways of generating and using energy are all intertwined with the climate, the fact that the climate is changing means that those modes will change. Our civilisation will be very different a hundred years from now. Population will be lower and my guess is that the modes of social organisation will be much more local and [...] tribal."
DM: "In traditional societies roughly 80% of the population produced energy, and 20% are administrators, military or religious leaders who used that energy. In our society it is 3 or 4 % who are using primary agricultural energy. As oil and gas decline we are going to have to go back using a variety of sunlight [derived] energy sources. So this is going to put a lot of us back into the role of producing."
DM: "These are some general speculations but they don't get to the most important things. Are we happy, are we healthy, are we peaceful? We could be all of these things or we could be none of that. Those are choices that won't me imposed on us. Those are choices we still have to make ourselves."
- "Would you have lived differently if you had known, now that you look back on 50 years of work that you yourself said might not have made the difference that I am sure at some point - I am sure - you were hoping it would make?"
DM: ...
(transcript will follow after my summer break)
More:
en.wikipedia.o...
clubofrome.org...
thesystemsthin...
www.chelseagre...

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12 сен 2024

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Комментарии : 69

@IanGrahamOld99 4 года назад

I want to comment and hope Daniel responds. It took courage to upfront and publicly ask 'is my work going to be of any use?'. Dr Meadows is careful and chooses his words without bitterness, arrogance or false pride, but the answer, from his 50 years of experience warning humanity about the earth systems science of limits and ecological balance, is, no, it is not going to make a difference. He's like the old grizzled hounddog with the young pup playing with an old bone. I'm an old hounddog too, I read Small Is Beautiful and Limits To Growth literature when it came out, Voluntary Simplicity too. There is still the impulse for hope beating in me, but I would rather listen to the wise elders who see reality for what it is, and advise us to focus on the local and personal ways to do good in the world, reduce suffering, and be content.

@danielchristianwahl 4 года назад

Thanks Ian. I had been warned that Dennis has a "bitter" or "bleak" perspective but I did not sense that. There was realism in a lot of what he said and he also - later when we talked about his ex wife Donella - admitted that we need to draw insights from diverse paradigms and perspectives if we hope to take wiser decision in the face of uncertainty. As a scientist and looking at the data, the trends, and global politics right now, I can fully agree with him, and yet, I do not dismiss the possibility that "we now have to do the impossible because the probable has become unthinkable" - I see reasons for hope and meaningful futures for coming generations.

@IanGrahamOld99 4 года назад

@@danielchristianwahl Dennis 'admitted'? the need to draw insights from diverse sources... as in, made a concession to your agenda? doubt it, he would be right there, surely. Check in on the Permaculture Leadership Summit going on right now online and listen to Peter Bane on The Shape of Water: Climate Mitigation. Very different paradigm from the carbon is the root cause. cheers. ps tell me what you think of it after.

@ezza88ster 3 года назад

I love how the intimacy builds in this conversation. Gave me inspiration. Thanks.

@KellyGerling 4 года назад

Any assessment of the Global Existential Crisis or GEC needs to include the vast, insightful framework of understanding of LtG and Dennis Meadows. Thanks Daniel for this discussion.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

"bleak" -- the transition to a lower energy regime will indeed by bleak for EVERYONE. For life in the post regime, that remains to be seen.

@MaureenMcCrink Год назад

So many great concepts to think about! Dennis, your work was not for nothing. Thank you. And thank you, Daniel, for your concise probing on these questions, and your continued engagement.

@astrologerclimatewitness3787 4 года назад

Omg....this is one of the best videos yet... The interviewer.... well, is difficult to listen to ... somewhat... at least for the first half... sorry, but he did ask for patience with his "not so youthful enthusiasm for the fantastical"... so, any way... THANK YOU for doing this... Sharing, sharing, sharing.

@AudioPervert1 2 года назад

"Carrying capacity of our civilization" is deeply in deficit irrespective of the fixes suggested by science and neoliberal reforms..." William R Catton said in 1991. "We have been stealing from the future for a long time ... our energy demands are generated by systems which cannot be replenished in the short term ..." Thank you for the lecture. Resilience even if we go extinct.

@antonymackin 3 года назад

Thanks for this, as someone born in the 80s in a western democracy, the idea that contempory life expectations might no longer apply in the years to come is distressing to someone brought up to believe in those values by society. Dennis seems very measured, but I feel you did well to mellow him a little with a bit of nuance. What I take from this, is it's all a matter of perspective, of context, of societal values and ways of organisation, that the human ultimate objective is happiness/contenment and can be measured in immaterial ways, even when planetary materials have been expended. It can be framed as a science problem with scientific solution, but I see Dennis doesn't see it that way, at least not anymore. I wonder if things would have turned out differently had the full effect of exceeding planetary limits not been more immediate and pressing as opposed to delayed and impacting mostly future generations. I wonder, if we should not just appreciate having the likes of Dennis and the capacity to predict some generalities about future life, so that we may prepare and adjust our expectations and norms accordingly.

@AudioPervert1 2 года назад

80s in a western democracy - was a short time, if we see the last 100years of mass destruction.

@sparksmacoy 3 года назад

A fantastic conversation, thankyou.

@kkob 2 года назад

Yes, Dennis, that is why we must make the case that we can quickly shift to simplicity so there is no need for sacrifice. When needs are met, "sacrifice" doesn't really apply. No car? Who cares if you don't need one. No TV? Who cares if there is nothing on TV that is helping us stay alive during a long-term emergency? If we have food, water, community, shelter, we can be content.

@shanjanacanakiah1581 4 года назад

Hello Daniel, thank you for this video. I live in Mauritius and given we are facing unprecedented ecological crisis with the oil spill, i have been researching on my own, how by using regenerative practices we can help get back on track from the oil spill disaster. I would love to hear your views about it. Thank you again.

@danielchristianwahl 4 года назад

Look up fungi.com/blogs/articles/the-petroleum-problem and ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-X4oDQ6yNQgQ.html ... sorry for the tragedy you are now faced with

@JonathanLoganPDX Год назад

Superb. Terrifying, but superb.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

If your society falls rather rapidly from a higher level of complexity to a lower level of complexity, then you have collapsed, a totally appropriate word.

@kkob 2 года назад

Resources: That Earth is finite is bloody obvious, thus almost nothing we produce today is sustainable. Readers, look around you: Virtually everything you see, from the smallest to the biggest, from a paper clip to your home/apt. are all unsustainable. This is a core reason why I have called for simplification for well over 10 years. It was a primary driver of my bio-regionally-based model. We must consume far less and must learn to do so 100% within the limits of the planet. HOWEVER, we also have already pulled huge amounts of resources out of the planet and can use what has already been produced - reuse, repair, recycle - to add to the level of convenience we can have in a needs-based society.

@Ppxl88 4 года назад

Thank you for the interview. Hopefully humanity can prove that we are a little better than smarter lemmings

@stevealdrich2472 3 года назад

hmmm, you'd probably have to be smarter than yeast to do that.

@QueenYak 2 года назад

Well done interview. Bravo.

@hunterhemingway 2 года назад

Thank you, Daniel.

@EvolutionWendy 2 года назад

*CHON* ... What systems could we develop to harness these 4 common elements? *_Well how about plants and animals for chrissakes_*

@marybryn 2 года назад

Very important framework -- universal and local. There is so much we can do locally with immediate benefits. I wish people would not use the word "sacrifice" Many things are not a sacrifice. I avoid plastic because I see it as extremely inconvenient for me (what do I do with the thing, it's not being recycled). LIke not using the word collapse. It's not moving us in the right direction.

@janklaas6885 2 года назад

1:04:24 no mars 23:10 1:12:00 8:35 the planet knows how to save itself

@georgenelson8917 2 года назад

Humans took or suffered too many wrong forks in the long road to this horror movie we now are watching: Agriculture ( urban sprawl, overpopulation, Nations, Empires, Standing armies, money), 1492: one time unbelievable windfall of the land and resources of the “ New Worlds “ to invade, conquer, spread huge populations joins up with new Corporations, gunpowder to form Capitalism, Coal and oil . I chose in 1965 , in the glaring ugly evidence not to bring a child on to this planet . It was Obvious even at that time the nightmare (s) facing us humans . I talked about global warming , overpopulation , nuclear war, etc to who I could button hole. Any one who kept breeding kids after Club of Rome proves just how low brow tribal short sighted little cancer cells eating the surface of earth human actually ARE.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

The 1820s provided a far bigger windfall than 1492.

@StressRUs 2 года назад

Human health is "collapsing" in our overpopulated world. Stress R Us

@ReesCatOphuls 5 месяцев назад

3:30 "what can you do?" ... Straight out the gate: "global die off". Lol - brutal opener.

@alvyladd6941 4 года назад

So your saying people must be forced into this analysis.

@kkob 2 года назад

Yes. I created Regenerative Governance in 2011 based on a fractal governmental structure ranging from the local to the bio-regional. You know this, of course. However, you have tried to claim you were focusing on a bio-regional approach long before. Yet, above you say you have shifted to that from a local focus. I still say you have riffed off of my model and failed to give credit.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

More realistically, future governmental structures will be determined by the same factor that determined past structures: by the size of a territory that a well organized group can profitably exert and monopolize armed force over.

@kkob 2 года назад

Then you think what happens to the planet is irrelevant. People can continue to simply disregard the ecosystem and just do whatever they wish. Got it. Disagree.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

@@kkob No, you don't have it. You are erecting a straw man argument that NOBODY makes so you can smugly sneer at the people who don't really make that argument. It shows me you are not only factually misinformed but a sad excuse for a human being as well.

@AmiraldeGrasse 3 года назад

Tribes 🔜 Tribal wars!

@michaels4255 2 года назад

As opposed to national or ideological wars or wars for the "greater good?"

@michaels4255 2 года назад

"worldview driving unsustainable behavior" -- I disagree. I think the behavior is driving the worldview, and the behavior itself is a natural response to opportunity. In order to survive, every creature must turn a profit (extract more energy from its environment than it consumes). And if a creature can extract a bigger energy surplus today than it did yesterday, it generally will. Under natural conditions, a specimen that extracts more energy than its rivals is more likely to survive and pass on its genes. Contemporary man has often diverted his new found energy surpluses from reproduction to status and comfort, but he still benefits at least subjectively. Once could demand that we all become relatively ascetic, sort of like the Amish, but few people will do so except out of necessity, and certainly not the people who would be responsible for enforcing mass asceticism.

@eflynn8713 2 года назад

Fraud.. Garbage 💯. Clown shoes.incorrect period!!!

@michaels4255 2 года назад

It may be that a sustainable biosphere or ecosystem requires a certain minimum size. This may also be true of sustainable fusion reactions.

@arnsteinholm7372 3 года назад

hmmm

@alexvarsany9453 4 года назад

Daniel Wahl: ask a SHORT question and SHUT UP! -- Listen and learn!

@jonathanbilbe8771 4 года назад

I disagree, I like that he injects his options and views - that being said, I havent read designing regenerative cultures yet, so for you it may be repetitive.

@danielchristianwahl 3 года назад

You don't have to listen if you don't like what I post and this series is about conversations rather than interviews

@evcarr3008 3 года назад

@@danielchristianwahl Everyone prefers certain styles but I think you're doing a cracking job :) Thanks for this, Daniel.

@kkob 2 года назад

Daniel, you still aren't getting what regenerative systems are despite your long years of study. That is, IMO, because you have "learned" about these things from an academic viewpoint, not a design viewpoint. You say we have these dual pathways. That is a complete misunderstanding of regenerative systems and regenerative design. It is all one system and design is one process, not two. Bifurcating it makes no sense at all because the regenerative design process is inherently wholistic (and holistic.) We design with *all* risks, *all* productivity, *all* energy flows, *all* affected people, *all* affected/involved systems - including those external to our specific design site. That is, mitigation and adaptation are the same thing in a regenerative process. It is alarming you still do not understand this.

@kkob 2 года назад

Dr. Meadows, that comment about saving the Earth is is way too pedantic for a conversation being presented to the general public. What matters to humans is the systems WE rely on and the natural world as it exists TODAY relies on are all collapsing. I don't find it helpful to cut this with a pedantic academic knife for the general audience; it's confusing. All those not familiar with all this hear is, "Deninis Meadows said we're not collapsing."

@michaels4255 2 года назад

Industrial civilization will definitely collapse. But the natural world, I think the doomsayer predictions for it, while not wrong in every detail, are indeed wrong as regards the larger picture of things. Some individual species will unfortunately not survive and some have already vanished, but the very widespread species' extinction is hypothetical and undocumented. Ditto for other environmental worst case scenarios. Ever since the origin of the environmental movement, they have been grossly exaggerated and for the most part still are. The biosphere will survive, the vast majority of species will survive, the climate will continue to change as it has always done for natural reasons. The danger to man is not the collapse of natural systems, but the collapse of man made systems which are much less robust than natural systems.

@kkob 2 года назад

@@michaels4255 You are simply wrong. The 6th Mass Extinction is confirmed. Please stay up with the science. Given we are on track for +5.2C by the end of this century, all the more so. And that's at monotonic rates of change, not the current parabolic rate, which is exceedingly unrealistic.

@michaels4255 2 года назад

@@kkob I am 100% right and you are living in a parallel universe of activist disinformation. And if the 6th mass extinction is "confirmed," then why has a list of thousands of recently extinct species not been published over the internet? Because all but a few of them are hypothetical species who may or may not have actually existed in the first place. +5.2C by the end of the century: even the IPCC, which is run at the top by radical political appointees, has abandoned this extreme scenario which you claim is unrealistically low. You Climate Cultists have been making alarmist predictions since the 1990s and y'all have been consistently wrong. And you will continue to be wrong because your theory is wrong.

@kkob 2 года назад

@@michaels4255 Grow up and make adult comments. Nothing but logical fallacies. 1. Follow the research, not old research. 2. Published on the internet? Are you serious? That's how science is done? 3. Climate deniers are criminals. You are a criminal. Believe me, if you are what solarpunk has to offer, it's already a dead movement. And shame on RU-vid for allowing your denialist crap on their platform.

@kkob 2 года назад

@@michaels4255 I already answered your denialist rant elsewhere. Take your criminal denialist activities elsewhere.

@JulioGarcia-wp2um 2 года назад

I call this bullshit

@michaels4255 2 года назад

I forecast with 100% confidence that earth's climate 100 years hence will not be significantly different than it is today. And heat waves in the desert? Ho hum. It's a desert! Of course it is going to have occasions when temperatures are hotter than average, because an average temp, in order to remain average, must be comprised of temps both below and above the average, including the occasional outlier temperature in both directions.