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@@trevoroverall7158With respect, I couldn’t disagree more. Luke is a macro financial genius. I am not. I believe I represent the mean of Adam’s listeners. I have wealth to re-allocate, I need insights from guys like Luke, his tech descriptions are way above my head, I need a translator during this session, Adam is a phenomenal translator and “what-iffer”. Adam’s opinion about potential social instability and Maslow’s hierarchy of needs is certainly his own. But it’s one that’s important to me. It also stimulated Luke to discuss his point about not loaning 4% long-term (>6 months) money to liars. That’s Luke Gromen gold.
Do they even have to tell the truth about anything? jobs data? Could all be lies. I'd say they're sending billions to their foreign buds to fight real or imaginary enemies which is promptly converted to Bitcon until other assets can be purchased, GODS, Gold Oil Drugs and Slaves. If one is going to take over the world you'd want the dollar to strengthen. They way the dollar strengthens is by loaning a lot of it out there in the hopes defaults begin. As dollars are owed the interest has to be paid back with the principle. As defaults destroy dollars rates rise. rising rates make the dollar stronger not weaker. Rising rates are inflationary giving reason to raise rates further. How many family farms were takien over in the late 70's? They can take over the world during the next financial crisis. I think these pundits need to think in terms of conspiracies and not so much about economics or finance.
Adam, just wanted to say that the way you can summarise and simplify guest's ideas for "the average Joe" listener as well question their suppositions based on your knowledge, your ability to ask (the follow up) questions as well as add to the conversation are probably parallel to none in this space. Great work as usual 👏!
Great to hear from Luke. I see him adapting to the ever-increasing “creativity” of institutions to contain chaos by expanding his sense of what is possible while understanding what is probable remains more limited.
In trading, possessing technical analysis skills is not sufficient on its own; discipline and emotional maturity play crucial roles in achieving success. Embracing the mindset of "time in the market vs. timing the market" proves valuable, especially during market fluctuations. I attribute my growing daily earnings to Jane Nina Pickett's valuable insights and daily trade signals, coupled with my commitment to continuous learning. Kudos to the journey ahead!
It's truly refreshing to see a comment about Jane Nina Pickett. I've also had the pleasure of working with her for several months after discovering more about her online. She has a knack for simplifying complex issues, whether it's a market surge or decline. Her approach consistently keeps you ahead of the curve. I'd call her a guru, for sure
Nice to see this here. Jane's understanding of market indicators is impressive. She knows exactly when to enter and exit trades for maximum profit. her siignals are top notch
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Pickett's insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Treasury and FED are aware that they have not actively supported the FED for 20 years. They now appear to face the music, as the lies seem to be showing on Powell and Yellen's Face..... They are tired from telling lies. American Consumers appear to notice and they are slowing the spending. Demand for Gas is down, so perhaps Consumer desires to consume, are slowing down? Gas Supplies have decreased after Russia and Saudi Producers agreed to cut production. I attribute the slow down to Americans understanding that unlimited spending will not help. There was a little unrestrained splurging to get it while you can. But that emotion seemed to be short lived. Bernanke and Paulson arranged to provide additional Credit with the 5 big Banks. Now consumer Debt is $5 trillion higher. Credit has provided spending, at a cost. Big Spenders still seem to consume, but Average Americans can not endure an entire pay period, without credit. The Consumers appear to have realized their Debt issue before the Government saw the Gov. problems. So the Consumers are smarter than they look.
Interviews with Luke Gromen are always very wise to follow, his insights are always interesting to hear because he is an out of the box thinker. Certainly a recommendation for a New interview👍
Part of the - “hard to get a job” problem is because of the way you apply for a job now. You apply online and algorithms pick out the Resumes/CV’s and you never have a chance to speak to anyone to sell yourself or show your personality as being a good fit. Funny how they made us all go back into the office so we can “engage and collaborate” but they don’t “engage” with applicants.
This is so very true... More then ever real networking is going to matter again!!...... the whole online resume and applications only help people looking for a quick high Turner jobs. I think those looking for a long term career people need to Network again. It sucks.
Excellent interview guest!!! Better yet would be to see him debate Lance on the UST trade. We all notice Lance just mockingly and condescendingly dismisses everyone who suggests rates may go higher by simply suggesting "they can't because we can't afford it"... but I'd like to see Lance have to actually defend that position face to face against someone who actually challenges him (and that's not you, Adam. Sorry.)
@@johnhackney180 Sadly you have the exact same (non) argument as Lance. Repeating it doesn't make it true, Goebbels. Yes, we can (and will) do yield curve control, but that requires money printing. And we can print an infinite amount of money (albeit highly inflationary) which means we can ALSO afford ANY interest rate if we print enough... so that's where things diverge. (A) We can print a TON of money and push yields lower, or... (B) We can print just enough money to keep rates from rising too high, too fast... (and attempt to tax that money away via higher capital gains/income taxes to pay the additional interest.) The latter scenario is one Lance not only hasn't considered, but absolutely refuses to acknowledge exists.
I don't think the argument is that difficult to understand. The higher the rates, the more the indebted players with large outstanding balances suffer. The US government is extremely indebted. The federal reserve is a public-private partnership with equal stakeholders drawn from large banks and the government. When choosing the lesser evil, both of those entities prefer double digit inflation to collapse and bank runs. Therefore, in the long-term, they will prefer lower rates and higher inflation. The burden of proof is on your side to explain why they would want to increase the cost of servicing the US government's debt and create deflation... because it's such a bizarre goal from the perspective of the relevant parties.
@@deseosuho Read my response to johnhackney above. You, like Lance and most Keynesians, are trapped in the erroneous thinking that there are only two scenarios; (a) higher rates & deflation or (b) lower rates and inflation. This is the trap. Since we can print infinite money to buy our own bonds (albeit inflationary) we can actually have higher inflation (from the money printing) along with higher rates (from only buying enough bonds to control the pace of the rise.) Why would TPTB do this? Simple. To get rich off the rest of humanity, as always. MOST humans are stupid linear thinkers and have experienced 40 years (half a lifetime) of falling rates. It will take them another 10-20 years to realize that's changed. TPTB think cyclically and have set everyone up with talk of CBDCs and negative rates to encourage that thinking... while they actually intend to "reset" the cycle of rates back to the beginning (like Voelker) around 15-20%. One could almost call it "The Great Reset". People conditioned for 40 years that Treasuries are the safest thing you can own, will lose their life's savings as bond prices collapse... along with most stocks as rates continue higher. It's the unwind of Exeter's pyramid. Want proof? Take a look at what asset Central Banks have been buying recently. (Also note that Yellen is issuing new Treasuries at higher rates to buy back older Treasuries with lower yield. While this IS somewhat stupid, it's not nearly as dumb as people think... because of bond math. Why? Because as rates have gone from 1.5% to 4.5% then the debt issued at 1.5% is now worth ½ to ⅓ of its original issue... so I can sell ONE Treasury at 4.5% to buy back TWO or THREE Treasuries at 1.5%... and voila, magically the amount of debt outstanding is reduced. 😳😯 Yeah, you hadn't thought about that one, did you?) 😉
Luke Gromen & Lyn Aldren see the way going forward I feel. That said it's differcult predicting the next chess move when the chessmaster can change the game rules.
I think Luke is a very thoughtful guest, but my issue with him is that he makes everything sound so easy when I do not believe it is. For example, he talks casually about "the central planners will just devalue the dollar". He sounds as if no other country has a say in the matter - sounds like he suggests there would be a currency war and we would just get the result we want. I question that. Or the government could do "entitlement reform" in 2025 - nothing will get done in Congress if there is divided gov't, especially entitlement reform. I do remember him talking 4 years ago about how there will be money printing and gold would be at $5000 in a few years (at the time it was around $1700). Well, that has not happened yet. There are various scenarios with differing probabilities but he really only talks about deterministic results rather than stochastic. But I do agree with his assessment of the debt problem and the likelihood of more QE coming.
Luke Gromen provides great insights and knows how to connect dots in a different but persuasive way than others. As soon as I see his name, hit the watch button!!
Excellent discussion. Gromen is spot on. I’m still trying to get used to this new background. When I see it I think that Adam is in the belly of a python. 😂
Is there any doubt central banks and national treasuries will supply liquidity to the global financial system? It’s the depreciation of a global fiat monetary system.
The US economy is a powerhouse with a diverse range of sectors. The stock market and the dollar have traditionally been safe havens due to their long-term growth and stability. However, potential downturns are part of the economic cycle, and laws are in place to manage defaults and asset seizures. Inflation can be a concern, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Kerrie Farrell, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape...
Investing with an expert is the best strategy for beginners and busy investors, as most failures and losses in investment usually happen when you invest without proper guidance. I'm speaking from experience..
On the grand scheme of things, once you understand the potential of trad!ng, you can bet on it but I think people need the education to fully understand...
I believe that we are socially at a breaking point where people cannot feed or house themselves properly. They can lie all they want, but people cannot lie to themselves about being hungry while a few lead the luxurious life there will be a social upheaval around the whole world that will tear all of this down.
It would be refreshing to have a guest who had the guts to say who they are voting for instead of the endless repeating "They're all bad" or the constipated expression and comment "Not gonna vote for any of these idiots". Let us start getting shows which end "Who are you voting for and why".
This suggestion assumes that we are in full possession of the knowledge as to who the actual candidates are going to be, and in my view, we are not, and possibly not even close (I hope and pray as neither current front-stumbling candidates are even remotely suitable/capable of doing anything but wrecking the United States as we and the World have known it since 1960 economically and culturally). [Denver]
Appreciate how you breakdown complex issues in a manner that is understandable (great tactic by rephrasing what guests say to provide further context). Enjoy your work...also great job with deadlifts!
Adam….I do not think a bunch will end up spread around to next gens coming in wealth as boomers die off. Boomers with some retirement assets by living longer will go through much of it, the really well off will be able to pass on, but again, in that case it’s money makes money but that won’t be that big of % involved to receive big chunks. You think more like me on what is coming.
I like this guy but he needs a better camera and a better microphone and a better internet connection. It's kind of rough to watch him sometimes with all the stuttering and low video quality.
let's get a Luke vs Rosie debate on the long end. Rosie claims the long end will give "equity like returns" over the coming years. I tend to be on the same page as Luke here but I'd like to see them go point for point on the matter 😊
12:10 treasury yield and gold p 25:40 keeping the 98% divided 33:50 most Healthcare spendings occur twds end of life, counted as GDP 9:40 fiscal dominance
What about these government programs...writing off student debt, give funding/support for first time buyers of house etc. Government giving money to masses? Is this what is coming?
U might lose money selling physical gold. Jewelry stores will pay scrap prices. Smelting cost is high. Then there is 3%/4% provision for losses and a deflated karat ratio of the composition. U buy at retail and sell 25%/40% below wholesale prices.
Adam, appreciate all your work. But you continue to couch every conversation within your own thesis, You only ask leading questions that encourage your guests toward the most bearish outcomes; and when a guest even hints at a non-recessionary view, as Luke did today, you cut off the conversation. Now please know that I've been in that bear foxhole with you for nearly four years; so I'm not opposed to your thesis ultimately being right. In fact, I'm positioned for it! But for the sake of your channel and listeners, please ask short, direct, and open-ended questions and allow us to hear what your guests actually think. We know your position, so it doesnt need to be restated as a lead-in to every question. Honest suggestion here: watch David Westin on Wall Street Week. He's the most effective interviewer out there. Copy his MO and you will have a much more balanced and intellectually believable show. Two cents worth from a loyal follower.
I agree. Adam, You only ask leading questions that encourage your guests toward the most bearish outcomes. I watch this interview because it is Luke's talk.
I like Adam's style of interviewing. That's why I come to this channel. He has excellent guests who return time after time. If they didn't think he was being even handed, they wouldn't return. Adam is well informed and he wants ordinary people to not be blind sided when this house of cards collapses. Don't forget, everything sounded honkey dorey right before the 2008 2009 financial crisis. We won't have China to bail us out like last time and with our massive debt, the wars, and the derivatives mess, we r primed for a crash.
