Crash! Crash! Recession! Inflation! It’s getting depressing. I have about $100k in emergency fund and I have been seeing good news about the stock market and would like to gain from that since I can’t let my savings be corroded by inflation. What stocks should I into as a newbie to safely grow my money.
I recommend reallocating from real estate into stocks. Even though a recession can be challenging, it often presents valuable buying opportunities if approached cautiously. Additionally, it can lead to market volatility, which offers attractive short-term trading possibilities.
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I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
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I like to keep a small "in case the market crashes" fund to try and take advantage of the low prices. When the market goes south, I use that money spread out over the following months buying my targeted stocks on low days. on top of my usual DCA, They keep dropping and I keep buying. I'm still in on Renewable Energy, EV, Tech, Health.coins too gotta be greedy when others are fearful. At this point I'm grateful for my FA. Already with a 7 figure portfolio but I have no doubt investing more.
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Unemployment is going up, NAHB just had its worst June housing numbers since June 2012, delinqiuncies are up substantialy, and the yield curve is basically as bad as 1929. Things are not good. The stock market is the last thing to break. Tryimg to look at the stock market to decide how things are looking will leave a ton of people holding bags.
Goverment/ Powell want unemployment that's what will cause interest rates to go down. Eliminates debts set some cash aside and look for opertunity. People that live beyond their means qnd those unfortunate to make enough to cover their needs will always be the ones to suffer. Be the change you want! Cut your expenses, get a second job side hustle if your needs are greater than your income. No one is going to do it for you. Don't feel sorry for yourself do something to improve your situation or suffer the consequences.
It will take at least six months of bread and soup lines for the FED to cut rates. Unfortunately, it is the only way to fight inflation in this day and age.
Nobody can predict these things so accurately. History shows that predicting short term moves in the market is guessing. Better results come from longer term predictions.
I disagree with doom and gloom for several reasons. 1- we are in a controlled financial world. 2- the goal is maintain the balance in the world. 3- I can be wrong.
I’m starting to wonder if it even matters anymore. The market as in TECH which is holding it all up seems to be pricing in stimulus as far as the eye can see. The dollar will be the sacrificial lamb and everything priced in it will thus go up in price. Is that all that matters now? The constant debasement through deficits all over? Do earnings even matter much anymore? In terms of the Fed and other central banks, the ECB and here in Canada the BoC literally just gave the answer, they will sacrifice the currency for the debt markets. Period. This is their actual second mandate, unemployment (to a certain degree) and backstopping the debt market. In the history of fiat, this is what always happens. They’ve already done it for a decade with QE, the inflation just stayed within asset prices. Consumer staples inflation was there too, just not to the extend the cheques to homes during the cerveza sickness gave us, but it was there. Long story short, they will backstop markets and cut rates in record speed to support the debt markets and by virtue the equity markets at the expense of the currency and they will continue to drive inflation. They will abandon their alleged inflation mandate.
Henrik is David Hunter's copycat, he doesn't add any value on Twitter, because he has nothing to say, all his tweets are retweets, don't waste your time here
Bad year for me, META down 40k, ALLP down 35k, Draft Kings down 6k, NIO down 15K, ABML down 8k, and my wife doesn’t know. I'm just hanging on to Jim Cramer's words about opportunities in volatile times so perhaps, I either wait for a recovery or pick profitable investments to substitute for my loss.
You know, back in 2008 I had ALL my ducks in a perfect row, and ready to take the next big step. I thought I would be OK. What I personally couldn't handle is how horrible OTHER people were during that time. And when important people died, I became the target when I was vulnerable and reaching out to others. I warn some people to be careful of wicked recession-angry people. Boy, do I regret that bad timing, as it would have been a great time to have bought, although WLA is ta bit tough anytime.
Listen to him. He is right. Prepare especially spiritually. Be able to let go of the things in this world for the name of Jesus. If you lack faith or wisdom, ask God for it and He will show you.
What leads markets is liquidity. What leads economy is financial assets and not the other way around because financial assets are much bigger than the economy. To have a 1929 depression style event you need mass debt destruction and no Central Bank in the world will allow that, not because they care about the economy but because they do not want a financial system implosion. If we have a recession Central Banks will restore back QE in full bore and financial assets will go higher but we could have and air pocket with strong market correction before trending up again.
This certainly has been true since the GFC. But one of the critical factors that allowed this policy was low inflation. What happens now if you restart QE and inflation shoots up? The damage from this to the real economy may finally outweigh any the benefit of higher asset prices impacting real economy. Hence, you have a limiting factor that makes new rounds of QE pretty uncertain.
@@dmitridemin4832 yes but: 1) financial assets appreciation comes before and a lot faster than main street inflation. 2) The 2% target inflation will be transformed into 3% target as acceptable. 3) In fact with all the easing the Fed has done/is doing injecting liquidity has already accepted that new 3% target rate of inflation. 4) Consumer is full of debt paying high interest on their cards and that restricts spending and that is disinflationary 5) Of course rent and services inflation are more structural now but they will find a way to show them like they are not so much. Finally: at the end you are correct but in the meantime the rich get richer (asset inflation) and the middle class/poor get with less consumption capacity. Debt is the mother of all problems and it is inflationary when you increases it over time or deflationary if you cut it back. Now the system is so leveraged that politicians/ Central Banks will not allow to change the course because Banks and financial system will implode. How this will end? I would dare to say that they will stay the course until they can. If main street inflation returns then they will find out something. Today i prefer to ride the stock wave than trying to know if main street inflation comes back but observing potential changes on inflation that can push markets to correct. We are living complicated and distorted times and for now having real assets is the best we can do to survive inflation. Watch what markets do, not what politicians say. Can all the thing end in tears? Yes but that day is not here yet.
@@dmitridemin4832 The Fed will tolerate higher inflation. Even 2% is arbitrary and above the Fed's mandate, but inflation helps with the debt. 4-5% will come to be acceptable.
It’s possible, but not desirable even for them. It helps with real debt but hurts with current debt interest payments and issuing new debt at higher rates - requires exponentially more debt to keep this going. It’s the end game and we might just see this, but I suspect they would rather prolong it than kill it quickly if they could
@@Gorka73 we have powers at be in goverment that holds the strings he cant known exactly when because this wont happen naturally the crash will be forced just like it was forced in for years now. but..... what we do know and is not a prediction 10s of millions of Americans , as well as possibly people in canada, Europe and aus have not only delt with high inflation but have seen there net worth in homes drop 5, 10 15 percent since 2022 . we know there has been a few historic bank collapses in the last 18 months. We also know the m2 money supply contracted the deepest in 100 years in 2022. We know that in 2020 we had a crash in the stock market in 48hrs worse then 1929 and then fixed it all like all is good.
The issue for the US is the enourous amount of debt that both governments, institutions and individuals have assumed can be deferred indefinitely. As some as cracks appear the panick spreads and all sides start to call in their debts to protect their percieved risks. It is contagion that causes financial collapse, not the actual assets themselves.
Nope. With the MAGS Euphoria has not been reached. MAGS are in the thrill stage while the majority of small caps are in a depression. That's quite the divergence. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the MAGS even go euphoric. If they do then the blow off top likely happens in July. if not then the top is likely in this week. Expect a correction into the fall, a bounce into Feb 2025 followed by a 50% crash over the course of a year and then massive QE.
t's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment/question! Henrik suggested staying long the market because he thinks it will rip to 6100 level then in a falling IR environment get long bonds or TLT.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! I am also a sceptic on btc but given the move and how long its been going on I am now a believer. Having said that, I still wont play it.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment Michael and for taking the time to view our content! You nailed it when mentioning oil and the low oil price is the only saving us right now. I think its a reflection of a weakening economy and actions by the Biden gov to keep the oil price suppressed.
@@BloorStreetCapital if oil prices is the reason, when Trump approves onshore drilling, wouldn't inflation will go down for sure? I think this guy over reaching. I think the September cut is fine.
WE are in one we just arent in a straight in your face crisis at the moment . we been a recession for over a year i think what are you asking is a upcoming crisis / liquidity event
To say you know that it will not pull back 80% is not only naive but frankly a stupid comment. You have no idea number one and number two it has happened before. The market is ridiculously overvalued
Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. Scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.
8:07 is really the question, isn't it - James basically asks why should stocks melt up into economic weakness. I'm not sure I love the answer, it's not really focused. Why would people get euphoric when the economy is turning down?
Why did people buy the top of the real-estate market, bid over asking, fomo in? Irrational emotion. There's still people buying homes now at these higher rates as we enter a recession. They have no clue but they listen to the news and their realtor that says it's a good time to buy, rates drops are coming.
My 2 cents is that this economy is melting up because of the AI technology and they still print money like crazy. The money has to be spent and goes some where in the market. This is why inflation will NEVER go back down to 2.5%. This chicken and egg issue/trash will never be resolved easily.
@@dimebagg1 No one had Hunter's calls at the beginning of 2022 either. He was calling for a melt-up the entire time the market fell, over 20%. I remember, I was betting on him being right, and lost big. Hunter just always calls for a melt-up. One day he'll be "right". As right as a broken clock. You don't use a broken clock to tell time, because it doesn't tell time. Likewise, Hunter predicts nothing. The only thing of value he says is "watch and learn". Just don't watch HIM, and you'll be fine.
He talks to fast, with his accent, it's hard to listen, but Never mind, I managed to sit still and do it. But could we "drill baby drill" and pay down our debt?
t's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes in a fast growing economy with higher taxes and lower spending for sure but it will never happen because it would be political suicide.
Jimmy Connor has already mentioned higher taxes and lower government spending. But there is a third way to decrease debt. Both economic growth and inflation increase tax revenue. If your salary goes up by x%, your income tax will also go up by x%. And VAT revenue also increases with inflation. If a government manages to keep interest rates on debt below economic growth + inflation, the debt "melts away". A combination of the three might do the trick. Mind you, a recession + deflation would decrease tax revenues and make it harder to pay back the debts...
@@janentomenkafka Well, I'm not a fan of inflation or higher taxes! What about selling our asset - oil - to other countries? Plus economic growth, that often comes about because of not-so-high taxes. Incentive for wealth and business to stay in America.
@@MissBabalu102 Do you think I am a fan of inflation ? I am merely stating that inflation helps to reduce the government debt. Just like taxes and cutting expenses do. Biden has been selling a lot of oil from the reserves at high prices and is now replenishing the oil reserves at lower price. Apart from that the US is a net exporter of oil. But that money goes to the oil companies ;-)
What he doesn’t seem to understand is that the US Govt can’t afford a recession. It’s an existential threat until there is a significant amount of deleveraging
What bothers me is that Trump will get the blame. Not fair, although He seemed to like super low interest rates, I think that was much of the inflation in housing, at least.
@@DJRS2178 currently, tax receipts (revenue) stands at $4.4T and spending is $7.7T Of this $7.7T in spending, Social Security and Medicare are $3.2T, defense is $900B and interest is $1T, leaving us with $5.1T that cannot be cut Expenditures During the Dotcom bubble of 2000, expenditures increased by 13% During 2008, expenditures increased by 9% This leaves us an average increase of 11% and would take our total expenditures up to $8.6T Revenue (tax receipts) During the Dotcom bubble, revenue fell by 24% During 2008, revenue fell by 32% This leaves us an average decrease of 28% and would take our total revenue down to $3.2T Deficit Currently, we are running a $1.7T pro-cyclical deficit, (during “good times”) Using the numbers outlined above, our deficit would blow out to $5.4T. Each and every year. That is a 215% increase in the deficit So yea, I do.
It's Jimmy Connor, thanks for the comment and for taking the time to view our content! Yes it is insane!!! We talk about trillions now like they were $20 bills.
@@BloorStreetCapital Insane is right. thank you also Jimmy. People need to remember that THE FEDERAL RESERVE is a private company... not a government one. 20 trillion missing and nobody allowed to AUDIT them. WTF do they serve us or do we serve them while they rob us and devalue our money. I hope people wake up and revolt. it may be the only solution. Also people should NOT trust BITCOIN.. as bitcoin is government money created by the NSA in 1996. MONERO is the real DIGITAL KING that offers what bitcoin doesnt .. PRIVACY like cash but no inflation. We have the solution for global money but people need to stop being brainwashed by BTC and its trash influencers.. like Sailor.. Jeff Booth.. Greg Foss...Max Keiser who use to be a CIA asset and still might be...
We need a crash go reset asset prices and wash out bad companies its like a prary fire. The stock market always goes up into a recession. People invest more into job cuts for increased profits anticipated... without thinking maybe the companies are cutting because they see decreasing pricing power. Look at factory orders...
something tells me there going to hold this off until 2029... i get it everyone has been saying not yet a few more years but at this point why not 2029? 100th anniversary of the great depression and i dont know do your research it seems to me like things will be worse then a few years then over the next coming months so unfortunately it could be a real possibility that after the covid crash of march 2020 we have a 9 year wait
These guys talk themselves up and get rich. 🤑 It's all nonsense, of course. But they need to keep you on the investment wagon. Dumb money falls for these stories every time.
fear? 2019 : bullmarketbear will you ever need to wear a mask in walmart? 2020 : i have to wear a mask to enter walmart for the 1st time since the doors opened in 1962 2009-2020 The u.s has the longest expansion starting and ending the decade without recession 2020 : First pandemic of its kinda to hit america in 101 years 2020: covid recession following no recession for a record 10 years we have the shortest recession in history in 2020 lasting under 60 days 2022 : war russia 2022: m2 money supply contracts rapidly first time in 100 years 2023: historic bank collapses 2023: war israel 2022: oldest president in history takes office often falling in public 2024: the 45th president is the 1st in 250 years to be convicted of crimes misc: we have a proven bubble of its size for the 1st time all at once in stocks,bonds, real estate in march 2020 we were suppose to have a depression if money was not printed and central bankers did not act like they did the markets were rocked more severe in a short period then in the 1929 crash the 1st 48 hrs of the covid crash only to magically get fixed and here we are 4 years later AFTER all that i said you can, KINDLY TAKE A HIKE NOW ... like seriously
We are in a recession right now, the data is fugged and delayed a month. Other countries already know like Canada... 1 rate drop has happened and the real estate market is still going down. Why? Because rate drops happen when thr lagging data says the economy is getting too weak.
@@DJRS2178 what recession? Look at the markets SPY, QQQ, Bitcoin other stuff… what recession? I don’t know I don’t feel anything similar as it was during 2008 GFR at that time everything was completely down there was fear and uncertainty about financial situation… now there is no where even close to recession… and it’s not going to happen anytime soon because US treasuries are spending $ in order Biden can look like a successful president, and even if Trump will prevail he will definitely will prevent US from going in to recession by printing even more $$$… that’s why I say there will be no more recession.. this dude is Dane he is thinking like Scandinavians…US politics don’t care they will print $ they will spend $
Lol a recession in what? The real economy or the fantasy land that is markets? The economy is in a recession whether the US or abroad. Do you see the majority of people’s standard of living increasing in affordability or decreasing? Majority speaking, it’s decreasing. The only people seeing an increase or a maintained levels are asset holders. If anything, the forces centrally planning/rigging the economy and thus the economy has failed most of humanity. As for markets, I don’t think they genuinely give a fuck about the underlying economy, this is just a slow grind higher as more liquidity is put into the system through deficit spending, slowing of reverse repo, etc. The markets are maintained to keep the wealth effect going because it’s the only thing keeping things from completely collapsing.
People’s low faith in humanity bores me. These doomers are only analyzing fed policies, not demographics or advances in technology that will increase productivity (such as robots, etc) and his thesis is that “humans won’t spend when the government gives them cheap money.” Tell me you’ve never met the average human without telling me you’ve never met the average human.
It’s called cycles, dude lmao. We haven’t had them in ages because everything is propped up by unaffordable debt. The majority of this debt isn’t going to be repaid. However, more debt/credit = more liquidity = more speculation whether good capital investment like innovation or piss poor like buybacks. The economy isn’t in good shape though, I just don’t think markets care or if anything they thrive on it because more crises that need central planning backstopping = more liquidity. In other words, think of the broad market as not just value added but more just a debasement of purchasing power … inflation.
I am an old boomer. I lived through several recessions and market "crashes". When I bought my first house, the mortgage interest rate was 13%. Going through an economic crisis meant tightening the belt for a few years, and then life went back to normal. And yes, people tend to postpone buying a new car or installing a new kitchen when they are worried about the economy. There may be a lot of Americans who would pay back some credit card debt if you gave them cheap money. You know, just in case things get worse before they get better.
Each time you add a facet, a step in prediction it starts to compound so sure everything he said collectively. On the flip side he never mentioned a ton of other stuff like how CBDC roll out will affect those sitting cash positions
They have been talking about a recession for years now and the stocks market still keeps going up and up, AI technology changed the game and saved this economy.
AI technology will change the world, that's for sure. But not today or next month. Besides, when AI applications are implemented on a big scale, it will indeed increase productivity. It will also cause unemployment and social turmoil. At least during the transition period. Just my two cent ;-)
