Market Outlook for July 7, 2024

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0:00 - 6:11 Introduction
6:12 - 20:38 Economic data
20:39 - 25:54 Nominal rates
25:55 - 28:59 Real yields
29:00 - 30:08 Mortgage rates and OAS
30:09 - 51:42 New positions
51:43 - 56:58 Copper and Gold
56:59 - 1:02:16 BTC and MSTR
1:02:17 - 1:07:40 SPY
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Twitter: / appliedlevel
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www.markmeldrum.com
CFA/Applied Series subscriptions:
www.markmeldrum.com/subscript...
Jobs Data:
www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/...
COMEX stocks:
www.cmegroup.com/clearing/ope...
Earnings calendar at sectorspdr:
www.sectorspdrs.com/earningsc...
This Week in Earnings:
lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/wp-...
ICE Mortgage:
www.icemortgagetechnology.com...
SPGlobal MBS Index
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/ind...
Money Market flows:
www.ici.org/research/stats/mmf
Fed Balance Sheet:
www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...
LINK TO S&P SPREADSHEET:
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/doc...
SIFMA:
www.sifma.org/resources/resea...
Freddie Mortgage Rates:
www.freddiemac.com/pmms
Treasury:
home.treasury.gov/resource-ce...
SOMA
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/so...
EFFR
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/re...
Reverse Repo
www.newyorkfed.org/markets/de...
FedWatch Tool:
www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...
STIR analytics
www.cmegroup.com/tools-inform...
Forward Curves:
www.chathamfinancial.com/tech...
Economic calendar:
www.dailyfx.com/economic-cale...

Опубликовано:

22 июл 2024

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Комментарии : 78

@dailydoseofnews4828 15 дней назад

Hey! Can you explain how PMI''s/ISM's work. As i understand it they measure by month so a PMI at 48 is alittle worse than last month. And 50 is the same as last month etc. So since we've been below 50 since end of 2022 things must be pretty bad, even tho we've had afew above 50 lately

@mranderson3817 15 дней назад

as always, great video. thank you!

@Watykaniak 15 дней назад

I am worried there will be a really bullish reaction to the first rate cut, then if (and only if) the economy continues to show weakness, people will realise there is no reason to be buying, and the markets will sell off since the fed is not cutting rates because of a strong economy and slowing inflation but because of economic weakness

@kingant84 15 дней назад

😊😅😊

@nvssrzbbkiu 15 дней назад

exactly my thoughts too, but nobody in the office shares this view..

@MarkWTK 14 дней назад

that's my view too. we are in the late business cycle. however, my timeline is after the US election. if trump win people will cheer the tax cuts, then there'll be nothing left to cheer especially when the government is close to shutting down again

@NINTENDOPOKEMON100 15 дней назад

Hi Mark, I am deluged with institutional research every day from several firms as my wealth mgmt firm pays for many of these services. The sheer amount of information wears on me and puts me off looking at a lot of it. I'm mostly passive in my investing but I have L1 (and significant other financial quals) and can make sense of a 10q/k, it's just that the applied series is just currently amounting to infotainment. Do you have any idea how I could get over this hurdle - finance is all i think about, just not company analysis at the moment though it's this kind of north star i'm trying to get to. Ps. My wife likes your haircut and picked up on it before you even mentioned it.

@alfredodelsors714 14 дней назад

Hi Mark, I am testing some directional strategies with synthetics, and I wanted to get your thoughts on financing the call (if my time horizon is 3 months, I buy it with a 6-month expiration to take advantage of convexity) by selling 1-month puts and rolling the position 3 times to finance the call and take advantage of theta decay. Thank you

@nshs1234 14 дней назад

I want to practice delta hedging on IBKR Paper trading and I think Tesla is a good stock to practice on. Do you know any other names to practice delta hedging?

@SomeOne-gi2gp 14 дней назад

For someone totally new to this, what daily routine would you recommend (reading newspapers, markets or things to follow or keep an eye on etc) regardless of whether you’re in the American markets?

@fplbrunoo858 15 дней назад

I was wondering what your thoughts are on European Car makers VW, Mercedes, BMW that are trading at very low valuations right now. Their brand power might not be as strong in EVs. Tariffs on Chinese EVs have been introduced but might not be sufficient or might lead to retailiation. How do you see this competitive environment playing out?

@CurtisSmith115 14 дней назад

Do you still have the July BWA $35 put or did you close them out? Mine were assigned early, so I plan to wait for a run up to around $34-$35 before selling some upside calls.

@Keane_Collins 13 дней назад

For playing TSLA momentum, would this be a good scenario for a Call Ratio Backspread?

@eltorkymohamedhossam 15 дней назад

Thank you for your efforts, for valuating companies skills, I want to be professional about it, also for complex cases (such as different business units in one company). How can I get started or what is your recommendation? Thank you

@CurtisSmith115 14 дней назад

Have you managed to pick up any of the puts on Canadian banks that you were targeting?

@SmallInvestor-ec4xg 14 дней назад

Dr. Mark, can you please describe the rules you have for your theta portfolio, with examples? What does the 50% take profit rule mean? What does the 100% take loss rule mean?

@davemur1 14 дней назад

Do you primarily use cash covered puts or uncovered puts?

@Slayer17606 13 дней назад

Hi Dr mark, can you please elaborate how did you get the Q3 Q4 basis points cut for fed funds futures, I kind of struggled to understand that part

@dignaga69 15 дней назад

Hi Mark, you've taught us how to PM loss to elimination using call/put options (i.e., to sell calls or buy puts in the case of a long stock position). Does this same process apply for futures positions? If not, what is the best way to manage a losing position on futures? I ask because futures have added complexities such as the options being largely European style & they have contract expiry dates.

@daneomegan 14 дней назад

I totally get your thoughts on switching targets for Tesla from fundamentals to their investor base but is this a "first base" type trade? Is it now personal?

@sdfergf 14 дней назад

Mark, what are your thoughts on using options flow data as a screening tool or as a way to determine where big money is flowing into as a signal. For example, you mentioned TSLA call option buyers driving up the stock due to delta hedging. Is there a screen or specific options flow data that can be predictive of stock direction?

@tuannguyen-eo7vd 15 дней назад

Thank you Dr. Mark

@whitleyparrish 14 дней назад

Hi Mark, I ve been slowly getting into understanding financial statements by explaining each line item as you showed in your ABR's video (thanks for that). Now I'm wondering how to take the next step which is moving from just matching and understanding to actually evaluating whether those numbers are good indicators of a company's potential. Any tips or advice on how to approach this effectively?

@HectorYague 14 дней назад

Hi Mark. Regarding that risk reversal on XLU, the calls are quite more expensive than the calls, so you gotta go one or two strikes OTM calls (ITM puts) to make it cashless. Plus, the bid/ask sprears on XLU are pretty wide. Is it worth it over just buying the underlying?

@chorimaverick1853 10 дней назад

Could you comment on the latest news in ABR? As of now im not touching it....

@dignaga69 15 дней назад

BABE WAKE UP

@MrEo89 15 дней назад

Hey babe, I’m up.

@Matthieu5555 15 дней назад

Hello Dr Mark, I have a question that might seem silly, is there one applied level per CFA level ? I bought it at CFAL1, do I need to buy a level 2 applied level and so on ? And I think you answered in the video, cheers !

@MarkMeldrum 15 дней назад

Only need it once.

@zeshankhan2112 13 дней назад

Hi Mark . Will you be doing a video on your analysis of Jackson Hole economic policy symposium outcome ? I think it will be great to hear your analysis

@jaredtarabocchia6331 15 дней назад

Mark, Love the Tsla slander. 1. Wanted to hear your thoughts on the overall framework you've developed in preparing and presenting research. Ex. How you were able to provide such a valuable product in the CFA prep industry. What kind of processes are you utilizing and what kind of questions are you asking yourself when carrying out the work that goes into it. Not asking about the business model, I'm seeking to understand the mental frameworks and common denominators behind individuals that provide tremendous value in their given field/specialty. I understand this comes with a lot of growth over time, trial and error, grit, etc., but what are some practical things that have worked for you, i.e., processes, systems, frameworks. 2. On the last slide, can you explain where ntm OE and EPS were pulled from.

@joshportnoy8102 13 дней назад

Hi Prof, hope all is well. How do you see a potential scenario of Biden dropping out of current elections affecting the markets? Thank you,

@CurtisSmith115 13 дней назад

What do you make of Lamb Weston falling another 10%? Are you still interested in this as a put target? I am seeing lots of law suit news articles on them

@amaanmashooq1127 13 дней назад

Hello Dr. Mark 1. Why do you use $40B as the runoff rate when you calculate time to get to ample reserves? Shouldn't it be 60B (25B + 35B)? 2. There was this statement in the minutes - "median expected timing for the end of balance sheet runoff of April 2025". what does this mean? Thank you.

@Chris-inv 13 дней назад

Hi Mark! A while ago, I sold a June 28th @42 put option on NEM with a premium of approximately $1.45 (I don't recall the exact amount but was close to that). The NEM options were exercised at 3 AM on June 29th, and now my average price is $40.64. If I received the premium when I sold the put option and the strike price of the option was $42, how is my average price $40.64? What am I missing here? And how the options were exercised at 3am if the market was closed? Thanks!

@claudiosavoldelli3239 15 дней назад

Hi Mark thanks for your videos, utterly enlightening!! I passed the first level of cfa thanks to your courses and have just become a market analyst in an Consulting firm in italy, focused on commodities like gas and energy power. I'd like to create a market outlook like yours but for the instruments we use to analyze. Our client are mostly from italy. Do you have any advice? Like drivers, index strategy or youtube channel that maybe are analyzing the subject. In our analysis we monitor storage level, LNG production, TTF(spot and futures) , JKM, nuclear energy power and renewable, gas demand and supply in europe and asia, political situation in europe and Arabia, ETS market for Co2 and the weather. I'd like to add something more, any advice would be helpful. Have a nice day, Kind Regars, C.S.

@tykepope 15 дней назад

Congratulations 👍

@shadowwodahs1 13 дней назад

Hi Mark, is there any insight you can offer on companies like Nurp that sell you an algorithmic forex trading bot that supposedly has incredible returns? If they are full of it, i'd like to understand how. Thanks!

@CurtisSmith115 14 дней назад

SectorSPDR and SPGlobal are wrong. Looks like LSEG is the winner.

@evanelston858 14 дней назад

Hi Mark, curious to know your thoughts on institutional strategists that are in the news and how much weight you can put on their predictions? Kolanovic of JPMorgan recently stepped down due to missing his bearish predictions and it seems like Wilson at Morgan Stanley could follow suit. Thoughts on the possibility of big bank strategists intentionally producing unalarming outlooks just so they don't become a headline and lose their job? Also, not sure how much knowledge you have in the insurance industry but with the increasing rate in natural disasters/cat losses, what is your outlook on the smaller premium insurers who can't handle large losses and also can't handle the skyrocketing cost of reinsurance? Will they ultimately get bought out by the larger players in the industry?

@user-oc6cl3te6y 14 дней назад

Hello Dr. Mark, May I confirm if the 2025 l3 full access package is "one-fee-to-pass"? If I fail can I still access to the material or I have to repurchase the package. Thanks!

@MarkMeldrum 14 дней назад

I am not sure if CeriFi is continuing that feature. You will have to ask them directly.

@jamesstallard1469 15 дней назад

How about golden ocean group? I'm down 86% and still hoping!

@cainrizwan9607 13 дней назад

Dhi earnings coming up. Would you look at selling puts

@Dr.Vincent_D_Gilmer 13 дней назад

Buying OTM calls in TSLA with 100% IVR and based on no fundamentals is crazy! ...im in!

@DanielPark-fj7ub 14 дней назад

Are there any reason CAR.UN is trading at 0.81 Price / Book value in premium to its industry peers? ( Minto at 0.56 and Interrent at 0.69). Killam at 0.82. They all seem to have positive correlation to one another, which is expected. The only thing I can think of is just the sheer size, which may make them a more developed company, and better diversified. Perhaps the concentration of their apartment portfolio at particular geographical location can also be a factor. However, if it was about the market cap, Killam at 0.82 wouldn't make sense. Is my observation an oversight?

@PJTutorials-n4x 13 дней назад

dearest Dr. Mark! thank you so much for your great content. I have been following you since 2016 and I am a CFA charter holder thanks to your amazing content. I am concerned that you may ruin your reputation by confidently misunderstanding TSLA. There are so many things you are missing about this company. Please don't get me wrong, I respect you and I wish time prove me wrong!

@chh8086 15 дней назад

Is that a cardboard box??

@Keane_Collins 13 дней назад

Hi Mark, just to play devil's advocate, but couldn't ARK simply be rebalancing their portfolios since Tesla's sharp price increases caused it to be over concentrated? Probably more rules based than a change of conviction? TSLA is still ARKK's largest holding by a considerable margin. Just food for thought, thanks for the video.

@ah69495 8 дней назад

ABR reports on July 26. Let’s go, lads!

@tjloehnert 15 дней назад

Can you show how you created your synthetic position in XLU?

@Dr.Vincent_D_Gilmer 13 дней назад

I was wondering the same thing. I'm guessing he sold an ITM put (or put spread).

@edonbabameto7652 15 дней назад

Thank you as always Dr. Mark. I might actually have a personal theory on why markets keep hitting new ATH. Could it maybe be that people are waking up to the fact that slightly higher inflation is preferred given that reluctance of government to slow down spending. And in the case where we are living with higher base inflation for some time, the best place to be is equities. This probably also explains the strong commodities. Government and the fed will be there to backstop any potential slowdown or crisis, and it definitely seems we are living in financial repression. So, I am just making the devils advocate here, why not be in equities? The above scenarios seem to be a win-win for all.... (the only unfortunate case is hyper-inflation taking root or any major exogenous economy-stopping shocks, and even here-we still managed to backstop an actual global pandemic), but other than that, it's equities and commodities for the win? Again I am just making the devils advocate and laying out a thesis, cause people are smart, people see these overvalued levels by any historical measure. And they still continue, so maybe it's not an issue of skill or lack of fundamental knowledge. What do you think?

@sean4850 15 дней назад

for XLU, you sold puts right? Confused about the synthetic part

@SmallInvestor-ec4xg 15 дней назад

He bought a call at 70 and sold a put at 70 with Mar '25 expiration, and got a credit of $0.92 for it too. That's a synthetic position - payoff is no different than going long on XLU.

@Dr.Vincent_D_Gilmer 13 дней назад

@@SmallInvestor-ec4xgYep, exactly. Potential $380,000 loss lol. I did a similar trade but limited the loss potential by all selling a call and buying a put.

@Dr.Vincent_D_Gilmer 13 дней назад

Sold puts and bought calls

@MrDeadlyCrow 14 дней назад

So you are now not afraid anymore about extended discussion about us fiscal debt and bankruptcy? You got back to selling puts on TLT?

@antonzharkov6036 15 дней назад

Going long at this moment in TSLA is stepping into the 3rd group of investors, inviting but so momentum - scary because the party could be over any time soon, and there is week fundamental to support it, why not to go long into fundamentally strong company, where the market agrees with you and operates in line with your logic?

@bricechagrindesainthilaire6442 15 дней назад

I'm going to get the applied level bundle. Your website already figured out by itself that my account is verified. That is nice. Could I ask, How much time do I have to go through this bundle ? Can I take my time and go over it slowly over a 1 year period ? Thank you

@MarkMeldrum 15 дней назад

There is no expiration.

@shqipe333 15 дней назад

10 yr and 30 yr auction will add some risk for bonds as well

@blakeduncan6441 15 дней назад

Hi professor mark meldrum, I'm going through applied series quite slowly and i was wondering if you would teach the ser up for acquiring data to excel automatically using pythons/program directly from sites like Fed treasury gov, fed reserve NY, CME etc. If there is the set up, could you point it to the section where i can find it?

@CurtisSmith115 13 дней назад

Do you know of a good data source that details the average kilometres driven per year for US citizens? I am trying to figure out the trend in kilometres driven since the pandemic. Just trying to do a quick analysis on whether the adoption of EV's will outweigh a potential reduction in kilometres travelled, in terms of tyre replacement. For reference, the following study found that the tyre wear for hybrid vehicles was around 35% more than ICE vehicles. ScienceDirect "Impact of vehicle type, tyre feature and driving behaviour on tyre wear under real-world driving conditions"

@MarkMeldrum 13 дней назад

Miles driven per year - FRED.

@rohanlansakara9650 14 дней назад

As per your philosophy on life, do you consider an Olympic gold medalist a successful person?

@hubertbuggert6883 11 дней назад

51:50 At last he sees the light ;-). TSLA has to be treated like a MEME stock for some time to come. Fundamentals will matter eventually but you can lose your arse trying to guess at WHEN.

@farzad_tahamtani 15 дней назад

Hi Prof. Meldrum Thanks for these great weekly insightful videos I was wondering which sector is the most boring one in this economy? I want to invest in some boring companies with solid cash flows and good dividends before the bullish sentiment changes in the USA and catch the move from growth to value.

@MarkMeldrum 15 дней назад

Utilities

@frankstudent 15 дней назад

TSLA is a trade for me, not an investment.

@Madzguy007 15 дней назад

Hey Mark, i get it that Tesla is overvalued with it's current offerings/sales, etc.. However this is what is making you biased against it, which is justified. My personal opinion, is that Musk is a very unique CEO of our modern day. A lot of Tesla's value is tied to him personally.. I remember one of your videos a few weeks ago, where you mentioned that nobody believes in Musk anymore and you specifically mentioned that the stock doesn't rally anymore of things he says...but here we are, it's up 40% in 1 week. Again my personal opinion, Tesla's value has always been high because it's speculative based on the future and it will always be that way as long as Musk remains the CEO.