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First of all Dave glad to see you back with the show on StockChartsTV! - I'm not digging as deep as you do in the breath numbers and charts for the following reason: Lately we had and still have a bifurcated market where a couple of stocks were able to drive the whole market up. What I tend to do a lot is to observe the different market segments in particular the offensive vs. the defensives and by comparing SPX with QQQ, IWM and most important RSP among others. My current conclusion is that the magnificent 7 with only a few exceptions (META) start to worry me (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN closing in) while noting a relative underperformance of the QQQ for some time now. This is complemented with an RSP index that has difficulties to properly move up (wedge?) and expand. All in all I'm somewhat worried too but as you did show we need more evidence that things start to fall apart.
Dave, totally agree the market is showing some significant signals of getting weaker. Also, on your SPY chart, you've added an upper trend line on the price (rightly so) but I think you might want to consider "updating" the trend line on the RSI. SPY made new high on weaker RSI over a month or two. Not a good signal, as you've taught me.... Thanx for all you do !
Excellent analysis! Time will tell but I keep thinking about $35 trillion and growing. Many are counting on more spending to keep pushing markets higher. We have never been in this situation before with this much debt. Yes WWII was bad but we had to rebuild the world which helped get us out of that. The world is deep in debt. I want to se how this plays out.
Yes, the market will make a low in October and this is when you want to heavily invest because it will continue to make new highs again especially during this seasonality of buy in October and go away in May! Thanks Dave.
Thanks what the overwhelming majority of investors think. Because of that I’m not buying your beliefs. Go against the herd and be right most of the time. This is a Bear market. Hard to believe but that’s why people are bullish now. They will regret it very soon.
