Villain bet his K high for the exact reasons Bart pointed out to the caller about having to bluff an inferior missed draw as opposed to showing down a strong A high holding. The bet size was indicating he did not want to be called.
Such a great breakdown of the predicted shove by the opponent. Whilst I completely agree with Bart’s breakdown I think I’d feel a reluctant fold coming based on the river bet. Even though the action leading up to that moment demonstrates it’s more weighted towards a bluff, great read on the situation
I’m jamming the river personally. If I’m running that line representing an over pair I’d want to compete the story. If you check river you are telling your opponent that you missed the draw for the most part which increases their bet frequency so much that, as Bart mention, I’d feel almost obligated to call with ace high. So if I know Ima do that, I might as well jam the river and if I was wrong and they actually had an 8 or a 9, maybe get them to fold. With this line, repping the over pair on all streets, an 8 (certainly) or a 9 can make that fold in my opinion. Full houses with one card in your hand are very foldable when there are numerous types of full houses that can beat you.
Just think if you believe a full house is never folding you’re never bluffing off better and you’re never getting called by worse. If you think they’ll fold a boat then maybe but if not then just check calling keeps bluff in
I agree - folding a boat when there's three-of-a-kind on board is different and easier than when you have a set or two-pair and then make a sneaky boat when the board pairs. Any pair is a boat on this board, so it comes down to how strong your pair is against your opponent's range.
Absolutely! That's only way to win this pot. Opponent shown some sign of weakness by just calling, so obviously, he cannot have a high pair. And in no way he can read that I'm holding AQ and not KK, QQ, JJ, TT, etc. Jam and let him sweat.
@@pot_kivach160 if you jam he’s folding out his air and calling with most full houses, what are you bluffing off that you don’t already beat? Low pocket pairs maybe?
Feels like hero induces villain to bet by checking. Villain could be bluffing, but villain could also be value-betting 9x or 8x, no? Hero raised pre, bet flop, and bet turn. Looks like hes' giving up on the river when he checks. It opens the door for the villain to steal the pot with a bluff, or just bet thin for value.
@@cj7139 I don't know. Maybe 5-5 at the Bike plays differently than the 1/3 games I play on the East Coast. If I'm villain here, it looks like hero is giving up with a busted flush or straight draw, or two overs. If I think hero would bet river with over-pairs and 9x, but hero checks, I might go for thin value with 9x or 8x, and hope to get called by Ax. I recently played a similar hand with A3. Flop was 6-3-3. Turn was a 3, giving me quads. River a K. Villain led into me with 6x, making me think he had Kx. I raised, and he showed a 6 before he mucked.
Was in the same position as hero recently and called. Villain had a busted flush draw which I cocked blocked so hard. He was so mad I called. I played his image in large part to my tank call...and my 3x stack size ; )
Callers reasoning for bet sizing on flop and turn was he was playing his hand as an overpair. When you get the best runout possible for the story your telling and check the river your begging to get bluffed. Starting the hand with 100bb I think its a pretty easy call after the way the hand played out. Villian is only jamming thick value, which he gets there with maybe 5% of the time only flat calling the previous streets Good call bart
@@mrhumble2937 More importantly, basically no one in the player pool bets the river with 9x or 8x. As a bluff or for value in their own mind as played.
I’ve never seen anyone open to 45 in this game lol it’s typically 20 with no straddle and 35 with. I think the caller needs to have a plan in place, it’s a waste to lead twice and then not fire the third bullet. If you’re not going to use use your position and aggression to your advantage then you might as well see if the flop checks through then check/raise turn
It was a single raised pot by hero preflop so hands like JJ and TT are less likely (would have 3bet often) and as Bart mentions 99,88 we hear from earlier. A single 9 or 8 isnt betting allin, and hands like 44 which was briefly mentioned I assume would easily fold the flop. Just seems like some busted draw most of the time so I be curious as well and call.
I actually over call more often with the lower pairs at low stakes cause when it comes in, they just pay you off. I got two all ins last night on a 9633 board yesterday when I had T3. I was against a flush draw and JJ lol.
this is where you have to try to look at the full picture of information someone gives you, the caller keeps referencing that the opp folded AQ pre flop earlier, the initial takeaway is that villain is playing tight, doesn't want to get involved etc. however, this also clearly shows you that this guy isn't value betting a 9 on the river here... now I just need to be able to think this clearly in the moment at the table lol
Why wouldn't villain bet 9x here? Scared that we shut down with TT or are inducing with a better over pair? I feel like you bet TT here and get called by 9x, or a reluctant 8x. So on the flipside when we bet bet check, our range is very weird and 9x becomes a pretty good hand, worth betting for some amount no? I can get behind the call, but I would say you'll see him have 9x, very rarely 5x, and a bunch of missed draws. I don't see 9x as being ruled out or considered ultra thin given I would think heros tendency would be to continue with overpairs.
Really enjoy your videos, Bart! I'm still confused about why pairing the board with a 5 is better than a 2 on the turn. Wouldn't the villain's hand be stronger because they have two pair? And they would be harder to bluff them off the pot with your Ace high. Why is the 7 no longer good for them? Wouldn't that give them a higher two pair? What am I missing?
If they had 87 and hero has an overpair then with a 2 turn they can potentially win by hitting an 8 or 7 on the river to give them two pair. However, now that the board has paired their 7 out is no good against an overpair that will have a better 2 pair.
If hero has an overpair, the villain lost all his outs to his two pair. Heros 2 pair will always be better. For example Jack's and 5s is obviously beating 98 now
I know, it is "only" 5/10. However: With which frequency is Hero actually checking the River with an overpair or better here?! - On the one hand, assuming " not that often" , this should incentivize Hero to call light with his bluff-catchers like Ax or an 8. On the other hand, it feels like Villain in reaction really should find some value bets with a 9: Okay. Not this Villain, who indeed plays tight enough to be bluff-heavy. 😉
I will either (1)check turn or (2)shove or over-bet turn here given assumption that villains will raise with a better than overpaid hand on flop. If they showed evidence of slow playing good hand at some previous moments, I will take a different line.
At 4:25, Bart is worried that the $100 flop bet won't get small pairs to fold. My thinking is: good if they call, because I have so many cards that beat them, and get me a big payoff. Am I wrong here?
I dunno like the only real bluffs are A7 A6 suited spades. Holding the QH cuts out all the busted Q10 QJ of hearts villain can have. I do t really see folding as a bad option although it is pretty sus when villain ships the river on the third 5….
Why can’t TT or 9x jam river? If hero can be calling with A high those are great jams… and decently safe for villain to assume hero wouldn’t check TT+ here on the river and risk missing value, so I don’t see how 9x wouldn’t be a slam-dunk jam in position. Maybe the game has passed me by.
Stopped at 13:00. Check call the River. As played, it is unlikely your foe has a 9 or an 8. This leaves TT as the only hand that is beating you, that will likely bet the River. Other hands that beat you 77, 66 are most likely going to check back the River. Even the 76 straight is checking back. Hands with little to no showdown value will shove, KhQh, QhJh, JT. JJ+ would likely have 3 bet pre, so shoves will contained more busted draws than hands that beat you. If you bet the river, only really strong hands will call, and they will have you beat. These kinds of hands suck at a table, because you are calling with A high, but check calling here is profitable, because there are many busted draws, and strong hands will check back.
Could villain not have TT JJ here? Especially since the caller said villain folded AQ to a 3bet - suggests that he might not be 3betting those hands preflop. Are there enough bluffs from villain on the river here to justify calling even though we might run into TT JJ? Some villains are also dumb enough to bet 9x here, although this guy doesn’t seem like one of them
IF* the Villian was a good player, I'd lean more towards a fold. Here's why. Villian knows overpairs would NOT check the river here as villian is repping a 9 at best. Therefore, even 10s would be jamming for value. Thus, when hero checks- as villian, I'd jam a 9 here for value to get a call from Ace high. However, IF villian were some amatuer, it's an easy call. They don't meta-analyze.
Although even if you’re able to reason that hero doesn’t have an overpair, you have to believe they’ll call down with A high. Otherwise they’ll just fold everything except for the occasional 99/88/5x that they decided to get tricky with.
@@datsumcrzysht because the board is ugly for a busted draw to jam on. And no, because of preflop action, no reason to believe they'd have anything better than a 9. I'd jam, even with 10s, all day.
I know Bart likes to get in depth and technical about hand possibilities but he didn't mention a reason that the 5 on the turn is a bad thing. You are now drawing dead against 55, 99, and 88. A lot of times I don't like to draw on paired boards...
