Nice presentation. One factor in the WI survival study in 1975 that was not discussed was the size of the stocked fingerlings. I've heard that years ago the size of the stocked fingerlings was much smaller and the survival in the initial years was not as high as it is now. You probably didn't have that information, but I don't think it would radically change any of the conclusions that were discussed.
That's good information. I thought that survival rate seemed a bit low. We may have accidentally compensated for that in the model - the first year survival in the WI study was 11.4%, but we used 33%. The 33% figure was based on the MN DNR's stocking guideline of 1 yearling ~ 3 fingerlings. One thing to note: for looking at adult populations, the intricate details of survival rates age 0-5 are not really relevant. It doesn't matter what percentage died in year 1, 2, etc, only what total percentage reach adulthood. Even that does not affect the shape of the graphs - it only shifts them up or down. What does affect the shape of the graphs a are survival rates in adulthood. We looked at a range of plausible survival rates from 60% annually up to 95% annually. The curves looked slightly different but the overall trend is the same. The most important point here is that the core story told by the model doesn't change even if the details aren't perfectly accurate. It is also consistent with angler observations (lots of big old fish in 06-07 with not many small ones), the lunge log catches, and common sense (high/low stocking --> high/low adult pop years later).
Thanks for this guys! Clearly a massive correlation between stocking and angler success. Let's acknowledge the elephant in the room though which is the effect of (particularly night) fishing with double bladed bucktails. This inception happened just a year or two before the "cliff" or drought was experienced in 07. Clearly stocking is the heart & soul of muskie angling success on lakes like Mille Lacs and Vermilion. However the 07 cliff just seemed too steep to pin just on stocking. The cliff was inevitable (due to lack of stocking) but I wonder if the severity or steepness could have been avoided? Do we as muskie anglers need to be honest with ourselves about feel good phrases like "catch, photo & release" and what that really entails? A lot of time and money was invested to create that population of alpha, adult, 30-50lb. muskies. Forget 80 harvested muskies in 06. What about the #s of long photo sessions, girthing, out of the net then back in then out again, precise measurements, and massive barbed treble hooks sticking out of gill plates or buried in the throat or tongue that occurred between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. in the summer and fall of 06? We all remember how much fun 04, 05 and 06 were. 5-15 fish nights. Multiple 50" nights. Unforgettable. I don't know, maybe the crash was worth it? I do know I miss it though. Being a part of the problem that created the crash makes my approach to the "catch & release" process much different than it used to be.
Josh, if you've got data on other lakes then please publish it. It can only help in the battle to stock more muskies. I wish I had found this sooner so I could have used the link and commented to the DNR.
Super interesting, have you thought about presenting this to the dnr. Just doing a little checking on the stocking of a few of my favorite lakes that are 1/23-1/46 the size of mille lacs and they receive half as many fingerlings every other year! Are there just not enough fingerlings to go around?
Fact of the matter is that the politicians are trying to run the Mille Lacs resort owners out of business so the owners of the casino can buy them up. They lied about the walleyes and didn't stock the Muskies. The smallies saved many of the resorts from extinction.... Politicians didn't count on that. Hail to the Bronzeback. Lets get the Muskie stocking going and save this amazing place.
That’s what I think happened for sure and no one will talk about it I would be willing to bet if they were never allowed to net it the musky fishing would still be amazing
80 muskie reported in the creel must be an estimate, correct? It's seems unlikely that a creel clerk (s) actually handled 80 dead muskie during a creel survey in a single summer. That's nearly 1 fish per day! If it's an estimate, then the 36# average needs some context. Also, will stocking more fish help if harvest stays that high?
I think that 80 muskies at a average of 36 pounds is correct! That was the year the Double Cowgirl was introduced to muskie fishing. If you were on Lake Mille Lacs at that time you would understand. I don't think harvest like that will ever happen again. The Double Cowgirl is still a great bait, but not like it was in 2006!
Natives gill net everything on principle as some sort of protest or demonstration of their rights, there are piles and piles of dead fish mostly unused throughout the open water season.
