I love this video. I've been tuned completely into the poker drama. But took me 13 days to discover this. Man, normal people who don't scream and yell all the time are just drawing dead in the content world.
I think people really underestimate how much playing deep adds to standard deviation. It puts it into perspective when you realize live pros winning 30bb/100 can still go on 15 buy in downswings. If you plug that into the variance calculator with online standard deviations its almost impossible. Berkey and Airball are playing some 1000bb pots
The obvious issue there is that this 30 BB/100 assumption is based on a sample that's always going to be too small when talking about live poker. The amount of time it takes to get a big enough sample size to just state a number as your definitive win rate is so massive that you as a player and your competition are going to be completely different from the beginning of your sample. I would bet that almost no one is winning at 30 BB/100, even live. There's some bizarre mass delusion among live "pros" that makes them think their best sample of like 5k hands or whatever is their definitive win rate.
Except I firmly believe Berkey has a much bigger EV than 10BB per 100. I actually think it would be closer to 50 or even 100BB per 100, assuming skill levels stayed the same right now. I personally would've taken Berkey all the way to -200
