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Nate Silver: Replacing Biden Helped Democrats Increase Their 2024 Election Win Probability 

Alex Kantrowitz
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15 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 75   
@Alex.kantrowitz
@Alex.kantrowitz 2 месяца назад
Nate will join Big Technology Podcast next month to discuss his new book, On The Edge. Subscribe here to get it first: Spotify: spoti.fi/32aZGZx Apple: apple.co/3AebxCK Etc. pod.link/1522960417/
@ClunFunDun
@ClunFunDun 2 месяца назад
Kamela needs to speak about issues blue collar voters care about--run against wallstreet, against price fixing, against monopolies, against china
@mananimal3644
@mananimal3644 2 месяца назад
Harris needs to stop taking money from aipac. My husband and I will vote for Jill Stein hear in Pennsylvania 🙏🏿☮️💚🇸🇩🕊️
@mananimal3644
@mananimal3644 2 месяца назад
She needs t stop accepting aipac money. Pennsylvania for Jill Stein🙏🏿☮️💚🇸🇩🕊️
@ClunFunDun
@ClunFunDun 2 месяца назад
@@mananimal3644 I agree about aipac. I seriously didn't know Jill Stein was alive
@jaddison1112
@jaddison1112 2 месяца назад
Give her some time. She was just catapulted into Presidential Nominee status 2 days ago.
@ClunFunDun
@ClunFunDun 2 месяца назад
@@jaddison1112 if she doesn't start defining herself to voters this week, the Republicans will define her to voters.
@shellysmith1037
@shellysmith1037 2 месяца назад
Democrats think putting a rotten egg into a 5 egg omelette will make that egg better. It doesn’t. It ruins the entire omelette.
@jdsthird
@jdsthird 2 месяца назад
Same with GOP. America doesn’t want an old senile grumpy fart back in the White House.
@LakeHowellDigitalVideo
@LakeHowellDigitalVideo 2 месяца назад
The majority of Americans are dealing with Trump fatigue. I think the polls will rapidly shift because her last name isn't Trump, Biden or Clinton. A lot of "Double Haters" now have a different option.
@mananimal3644
@mananimal3644 2 месяца назад
Here in Pennsylvania my husband and I will vote for Jill Stein. The DNC just threw out 14 Million Free primary votes.🙅🏿 Harris also takes money from aipac. 134,000 lives mattered. Jill Stein 2024☮️🙏🏿💚🇸🇩🕊️
@mananimal3644
@mananimal3644 2 месяца назад
Here in Pennsylvania my husband and I will vote for Jill Stein🙏🏿☮️💚🇸🇩🕊️ 134,000+ lives matter.
@jamesstewart8377
@jamesstewart8377 2 месяца назад
Nah we love Donald Trump in the Army and the south. Kamala ain’t winning bruh
@Marvinguigar
@Marvinguigar 2 месяца назад
I myself is voting for Trump I'm tired of the open borders I'm tired of the high inflation high taxes high gas prices I'm just tired of the Democrat policies
@WCGreeny
@WCGreeny 2 месяца назад
Your theory does seem to be panning out. "I'm Kamala Harris and I'm normal" is working fantastically, at least for now.
@truthteller2711
@truthteller2711 2 месяца назад
Where’s the full interview
@Alex.kantrowitz
@Alex.kantrowitz 2 месяца назад
It's coming in a few weeks when On The Edge releases
@underwaterlevelz1947
@underwaterlevelz1947 2 месяца назад
Im not convinced that swapping out the nominee (and basically flushing the primary process) before the convention is a winning move.
@jeremyjackson7429
@jeremyjackson7429 2 месяца назад
Biden raised $120 million in his best month for 2020. Kamala raised $250 million in TWO DAYS (including $81 million from small donors within 24 hours . . . a new record). You can be convinced of whatever you want. The energy is organic & the numbers speak for itself.
@ClunFunDun
@ClunFunDun 2 месяца назад
@@underwaterlevelz1947 think of it like the videogame Ski or Die. In the game if you don't ski, you die. In real life, if the Dems didn't switch from Biden everyone in America would have died.
@shellysmith1037
@shellysmith1037 2 месяца назад
So we ousted him just because he was gonna lose?
@Firefoxy-rz1nw
@Firefoxy-rz1nw 2 месяца назад
Yes, of course. That's politics.
@benb6527
@benb6527 2 месяца назад
He was going to lose because we were ousting him
@WCGreeny
@WCGreeny 2 месяца назад
That's a very good reason in politics.
@benb6527
@benb6527 2 месяца назад
@@WCGreeny The thing about using that as the excuse is that it claims a power no one on earth has: knowing the future. No one knew that Biden was doomed to defeat. Forcing him to step down was an admission of Democrats of defeat. It's like they already lost to Trump.
@samuraijack1371
@samuraijack1371 2 месяца назад
Nate was shy to say “it’s not GTO”. My poker friends will get the reference
@BradenWalden
@BradenWalden 2 месяца назад
I can only speak for myself but I'm more excited to vote for Harris in her 50s than Biden in his 80s
@nehukybis
@nehukybis 2 месяца назад
I think America: The Reality TV show jumped the shark a while ago, when those two guys went golfing on the moon.
@jpgsf1978
@jpgsf1978 2 месяца назад
Is Nate Silver now an errand boy for Peter Thiel ?
@JDSammy
@JDSammy 2 месяца назад
Isn't Nate Silver now bought and paid for by Peter Thiel? Listening to him would be like listening to Stephen Miller. Good for you if that works, but I'd take everything he says with a huge grain of salt.
@MikiCab1
@MikiCab1 2 месяца назад
What has happened to Nate. I have seen homeless people who look better. He reminds me of Buggy Ding Dong from Death to Smoochy
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 месяца назад
When your job is to be intelligent and good at analysis and statistics, there’s no need to jump thru silly societal hoops.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 месяца назад
I take it you haven’t managed to land such a job?
@macfalk12
@macfalk12 2 месяца назад
He sounds different. I remember watching FiveThirtyEight four years ago and I am shocked by how he looks and sounds right now... I wonder what happened.
@MikiCab1
@MikiCab1 2 месяца назад
@@macfalk12 I am just as shocked. I had a hard time believing it was Nate. He is aging like a hobo on a freight train.
@MikiCab1
@MikiCab1 2 месяца назад
@@SigFigNewton If my job was to go on TV and podcasts I think I would care what I looked like. That is part of the job. He looks like he is still living in a Covid Cave and only wearing a shirt with no pants on a webcast. Hope he never forgets and stands up with no pants on.
@MikeRocky45678
@MikeRocky45678 2 месяца назад
She had 94 staff members. 4 are left. Wonder why ?
@jdsthird
@jdsthird 2 месяца назад
Now do Trump.
@kenwarner
@kenwarner 2 месяца назад
Bold to suggest that Hillary Clinton does not possess a cult of personality
@a.m.g.karlsson7165
@a.m.g.karlsson7165 2 месяца назад
If she’s a ‘smart and capable person’, as Silver says, why does she utter so much gobbledygook? A lot of the most awful word salads (it’s telling you can find these with a simple ‘Kamala word salad’ search on RU-vid) are not only gibberish but circular gibberish (culture is important because it's what we are and it’s important). Maybe you don’t expect verbal dexterity from some STEM nerd (who has other talents) but from a lawyer? As for being a deft debater: she scored a point off Biden in 2019 only by brazenly lying about her childhood. Her staff say she doesn’t read her briefing papers-smart and capable people don’t decline to be informed by the very aides who are supposed to be keeping them informed. She’s like both Trump and Biden: not very bright, not at all articulate and formal education doesn’t seem to have worked for any of them. Among 333 million Americans isn't there better than these three?
@stephendileo641
@stephendileo641 2 месяца назад
Yep. Americans are just aching to vote for that cackling laugh for 4 years.
@karthy257
@karthy257 2 месяца назад
🤣😂😆
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 месяца назад
No swing voter is swayed by the “she laughs weird” argument.
@SigFigNewton
@SigFigNewton 2 месяца назад
Elephant party keeps running from policy and substance
@Pdmc-vu5gj
@Pdmc-vu5gj 2 месяца назад
People vote on issues. Not a high school popularity contest.
@stephendileo641
@stephendileo641 2 месяца назад
@@SigFigNewton Oh, really. You think Dems win on policy??? Name one.
@jamesstewart8377
@jamesstewart8377 2 месяца назад
I feel like y’all are going to be upset when Donald Trump wins… If you do cry please post it.
@shanemurphy8682
@shanemurphy8682 2 месяца назад
538 model had Biden at 51 on Friday what is he on about
@underwaterlevelz1947
@underwaterlevelz1947 2 месяца назад
Biden was the incumbent and he had the primary win in his back pocket. Even with noticeable decline he still had those two serious advantages. Harris has neither, she is likely to fail.
@redrum3405
@redrum3405 2 месяца назад
538 relies more on thing like fundamentals rather than polls. Polls were terrible for Biden. Nate isn’t with 538.
@ShowsOn
@ShowsOn 2 месяца назад
The 538 model is no longer Nate Silver’s model. Read Nate’s Silver Bulletin blog to see Nate’s model which used to be the 538 model.
@underwaterlevelz1947
@underwaterlevelz1947 2 месяца назад
@@-dtuyhnjhggvjjjnWhat was I "wrong" about? The incumbency is a pretty big advantage, its why Dr. Lichtman factors it significantly into his prediction model. It's not impossible for Harris to win, but given that she is coming into the race after the primaries are already over, it is extremely unlikely.
@mikeycj
@mikeycj 2 месяца назад
Nate is not very likeable. I can see his point but I see why people don't like him.
@peterturner6497
@peterturner6497 2 месяца назад
Nate Silver is always wrong wrong and more wrong so whatever he sys you back the other side. Guaranteed. Tooo easy!
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