Central Washington University Natural Science Seminar Series Presented by: CWU Department of Biological Sciences and College of the Sciences October 30, 2015
Forget the geology of our planet, Nick Zentner is a force of nature in and of himself. If I had stumbled into one of his classes as an undergrad my life would have taken a completely different direction. He's that good; that's coming from a graduate of UC Berkeley with 2 degrees. Kudos to Nick Zentner!
The way I see it, there are no grades, no tests, no tuition and fees, but you can see dozens of his lectures here on RU-vid for free. More importantly, after watching a few of them, you will be able to see through the fake news that a lot of RU-vid videos are based on. And I am quite pleased to know that everything west of I-5 will most likely not be toast, because I live in that area.
I’m an east coast old man. A few videos by Nick are worth watching multiple times. Covid? Nick has us covered and teaches us from home. I’ve met few real educators in my life, and Nick is in my top 5. Actually, top 2. I’ve watched this video a few times. Lessons here apply to many areas worldwide.
One thing not covered in your lecture series: The fact that a good deal of downtown Seattle is built on on tidal flats on fill. Even in relatively minor quakes there is a danger of liquifaction underneath the present day over lay. Will everything be destroyed west of I-5 in a 9+ quake As you point out, not likely. Not all of the overlay of Seattle is built over fill and mud flats like the downtown areas. However depending upon time of occurrence, there is a potential for loss of life, perhaps in the thousands'
There's a ghost forest near Ocean Shores. I'm glad that there's so much research being done. I saw him in person when he went to Ocean Shores, and he was trying to educate the residents. If this earthquake and tsunami happen, I worry for the coastal areas because I honestly don't know how anyone could survive.
I have experienced some of these shallow crustal shakes. I was in the library of the then Central Washington State College around fall 1965, when one occurred there. I lived on Bainbridge Island when the one came that damaged the State Capital dome. I have experienced one here in Spokane where I now live which slightly shook my condominium unit on the 5th floor of our building which was built during the 1960s. We sit on top of a lava lump which has been slowly moving because even in a short period of time ( 17 years) have moved surface rocks. I love this program because it gives information about where I live and what has come before. Thanks Prof. Zentner. You're my favorite teacher.
I was in the Alaska eathquake in 1964 and in the Nisqually quake in 2001 while living in Olympia. There is a hugh difference between a 9.2 quake lasting 5 minutes versus one that is 6.8 at 30 seconds. In the later I was not even concerned. I knew that it wasn't the type of quake that would cause devastation. Am I concerned about the big one possibly occurring in my lifetime? Yes! And I am always prepared although not in a crazy way. I do have a plan for my home and my car. I do have water and other supplies in both places. It is not hard to do and I would hope others find the time to do the same. You really can not imagine what a 9.2 quake feels like for 5 minutes. It is really just unbelievable the power of the earth.
Being prepared is different from keeping people in constant anxiety panic mode. Until they absolutely can predict the next one, you have to continue to live your life. I was bracing for the big one from the new madrid in 1990 in fear and panic. Im still waiting but without fear because its beyond my control. I can only prepare.
I was in Alaska in 64 as well.... I 100% agree, I missed the Nisqually quake but I was here in central California for Loma Prieta... Most people who experienced Loma Prieta were terrified & many still talk about how powerful it was... I've tried to explain the difference but people can't seem to conceive that immense level of power...
Depending on proximity to the quake, and what sort of terrain is in the way, and what terrain you are on makes a huge difference. Earthquake intensity decreases quickly across rugged terrain, And floodplains with a lot of ground water make everything worse when it liquefies (San Francisco marina district 1989). Probably our best defense are stricter seismic building codes and retrofits on older structures. But even if the intensity of the shaking depletes over distance, the duration is still there. So, even low shaking for an extended period of time will cause damage. But I'd still rather live under the threat of a 9.0 some day, rather than the regular threat of tornadoes and hurricanes, as in other parts of the country. Big earthquakes only happen once in a great while, It's good to be prepared, but not enough to be crippled with fear. When "the big one" happens, it'll be like "ok, now mother Earth is gong to show us who's in charge.", can't fight that. Just go with it. I used to live in southern California, all the smaller quakes gave me a somewhat nonchalant attitude towards the threat. A 4.0-5.5 is kinda fun. I get this odd calm and focus when the ground starts shaking.
Prof. Zentner makes geology interesting. I used to always think "why would anyone want to study something as boring as rocks?" but someone like Zentner makes it worth listening to! He's a great speaker and communicator! I wish more profs were like him!
We LOVE Nicks talks! So smart and interesting .. we are in central Oregon and often bypass all the other posts on this topic to watch Nicks presentations. We know he gets his info from reliable sources and appreciate his research into getting it right. THANK YOU!
Wow, I sat in on a really good college geology class and learned about earthquakes in Seattle, where my kids live. Thank you very much for making this available on You Tube!
"Toast" referred mostly to the near-impossibililty of delivering emergency services - or services of any kind - after a major quake. It's due to the relatively large population and large area, and the loss of infrasctucture. There are only so many helicopters available.
This is very true about Westport and Ocean Shores, but I think it is important to also include the areas around Hoquiam, Cosmopolis, Aberdeen, ect. It is based on what these local communities are built upon. A lot of these areas are not solely built on bedrock. Much includes discarded backfill from the timber industry. Living about 20 minutes from Copalis Crossing, I have no doubt that our area will be wiped off the map if a nine point plus earthquake occurs. Thank you for this presentation, Nick!
I used to live near Ocean Shores, and many people think that if they get to higher ground, they'll be safe, but as often as Washington gets landslides, the higher ground probably will slide. Then there's the liquidation that will happen. I also lived by the Columbia River and realized that living along the river and close to the ocean, that place wouldn't be safe. Trying to deal with liquefaction while dodging trees and whatever else may come loose during an earthquake would be so difficult, if not possible.
The emergency planning official has to assume the worst for planning purposes. They over-predict floods also. They get in a lot more trouble if they under-warn people.
I'd rather heed the warnings than find out the hard way I should have evacuated. So what if the tsunami isn't as big, or a flood isn't as big as predicted. The evacuation practice should be done at least once a year whether it's needed or not it's always good to have a plan. Top of the list, have a plan.
I'd like to thank you for clearing much of the confusion there is on this subject y explaining (via you tube) the difference between the crustal quake phenomena, from the subduction zone phenomena which has perhaps been a wee bit sensationalized by media outlets.
Brilliant man. I believe that his discussion and explanation were perfect. what was not discussed or mentioned was that many delivery systems are underground ie electrical, gas (LNG) etc. When the ground shakes and breaks causing fissures then that could mean they are toast. Bridges, elevated roads, trains will collapse making the bringing of equipment difficult if not impossible. Liquefaction presents its own issues. I have family in BC and will move to BC but not to the coast.
Thank you for another fascinating geology journey! Question: the areas that are stuck under the plate... has there been active monitoring as the land above the stuck points rises? if so what is the rate of this rising?
Wonderful presentation to explain that it ain't that simple. Every generation seems to receive this alarm anew. As we add current information I hope that it helps resident and planners make appropriate decisions.
i like to imagine you were living in a house that was like on the west side like with the drive way coming out on 1-5 and you just moved to the west side and now your drive way is sill coming out on i-5 lol
@@firefox5926 No, I was living in Salem, where I lived on the west side of I-5, near the Airport. Then I moved closer to Portland. I'm closer to I-5 now, but now I'm east if the Freeway. In fact, I can hear the traffic on the freeway right now.
Nick !!!... Do you think the Hydro Electric Dams on the Columbia River could be (seismicly) structurally affected by a total failure along the Cascadia Zone ? (a 9 on the scale) ??? I live in No.Cal. but was raised in Yakima .
Dr Zentner, I don't think the emergency service manager was exaggeration that much when he used the word "toast." He has to take the broad view and plan for the worst. And since he is not a geologist, he is not aware of the distinctions you are making among crustal bounce-back earthquakes (I forgot the technical term), shallow quakes on crustal faults and deep subduction zone quakes. He conflated the damage any one of them can do into one image. I was in Japan for both the Kobe earthquake and the Fukushima earthquake. After the later, I walked home along with a great many other people. And many people, used to using public transportation, didn't have a clear idea of where they were going. (Fortunately, having ridden my bike around town quite a bit, I had no problem there.) The telephone system was overloaded so personal communication was impossible (I imaging emergency services did better). Gas was out as infrastructure to prevent gas leaks kicked in. (Does the Pacific Northwest have such safety measures? Imaging fires from ruptured gas mains.) I just checked a newspaper article and train service to Tohoku is still not fully restored and is not expected to be restored until 2020. Thousands of non-Japanese left. Many in northern Japan went south and west for several weeks. Electrical power was rationed. After the Kobe earthquake, fires burned for several days. Fire crews from quite far away were sent in. The expressway collapsed. Following these earthquakes, Japan might not have been "toast," but it certainly wasn't a piece of cake. After the Loma Prieta earthquake, the Bay Bridge was closed for a month. How long will the bridge across Lake Washington be closed following a severe earthquake? What other bridges will be unusable? Will trains be able to run? How well will the power grid function? Remember the bridge on I 5 that collapsed into the Skagit River in 2013 (and there wasn't even an earthquake)? How many more bridges are there that might collapse? And losing several bridges will be much worse than losing just one. Everything west of I5 might not be toast, but there will probably be a lot of jam on the rug.
Dr. Zentner, I really enjoy your lectures on geology in Washington state, and I am a huge fan of geology and the geologic sciences!.... But I am missing someone. Where can I find the guy like you who does lectures on geology in Colorado?
Hi Nick. I'm an earth scientist living in new Mexico. You said southern Oregon is more overdue for a great quake . How much overdue is northern Oregon. Thanks you're a very good lecturer.
The southern 1/4 or so from Cape Mendocino to about the middle or Oregon rupture AVERAGE every 250 years. The whole thing averages closer to ever 400-500 years. The answer to your question depends on where you are and where exactly the fault ruptures. There's no clear answer.
Thanks for this series. I used to live in Coeur d Alene ID and drove extensively throughout the NW region. I write fiction now and it occurs to me there is a parallel to geology. It is often thought that one issue or event can drive a plot line. But, I am working on my 3rd novel now and I am discovering as I write is that a dramatic change across cultures is often the result of several issues transpiring over decads. That is consistent with the story your lectures paint about geology. My books focus principally on a biblical construct from Romans chapters 9-11 which assert that Jews and Gentiles will be unified before Christ returns. This hasn't happened yet and I use that as an argument against those who typically cite a soon returning Christ and this is almost everyone. My first book "1 Week" opened with a debate pondering the outcome if one of the world trade center towers had survived. Those towers that fell on 911 to me represent Jews and Gentiles and the Bible clearly argues that Gentiles will be blessed provoking Jews to salvation in Christ. I didn't get around to stating this more clearly until my second book "T. Wall," due out this month, that features a team stealing a pair of mothballed Russian made space shuttles. That point being is that God even cares about recovering the copies of that which is lost. The Russian shuttles were copies of our American shuttles. And as I am now beginning my 3rd novel, my character finds himself propelled into scenarios in which Russia might have to be exalted in world affairs to bring about a new wave in which future Americans take God seriously. Thus, I see world cultures rising and falling over time in this age due to several inputs from differing sources. And that tends to mimic what you present in your lectures about the geology of the North West. Interesting! Thanks. I should add, when I write, I never know the ending when I begin. Rather, I always let the ending unfold as I write. Maybe this is why I see a global change occurring over time as characters deal with different issues in their own unique way.
Id hardly get rid of them they might have done quite well in less severe parts of the coast. Can't help but wonder how fast the wave would've moved in without it. Possibly gave people a small amount of time they wouldn't have had. I got to think the Japanese, well versed in tsunamis know what they are doing but like anything the unusual and unexpected along with economic feasibility turn up.
The source is different but the storm surge from Katrina wiped out pretty much most of everything south of interstate 10 from south Mobile county to past New Orleans so the power of water is immense. It also cut Dauphin Island in half.
Interesting comparison. There were similar impacts on parts of Abaco and Grand Bahama during last year's Hurricane Dorian. The older people used to call the storm surge and the tsunami all the tidal wave, because although the source /cause was different, the impact of that wall of rising water is quite similar.
In 1964 our family and maybe 7 or 8 thousand of other families and "Men without Wives" [e.g. batch or She is at home...] took shelter in military Radar buildings that were massive and other places. The tidal wave from Alaska hit Hawaii and did trouble and our island was between 1 and 2 meters above mean water. At high high tide (sun, moon, big planets pulling) we would run water over the island in places. The 2 meter wave was running around 500 to 600 miles an hour and we were rushed. The 70 nMile long atoll might dump the Lagoon water over our island. We were 2400 n mile from Hawaii. Relief would be long in coming if the runway were destroyed. (0.7 mile long) Propeller only. Jets didn't have the range. As luck, it hit us at Low, Low tide as the mass pulling the water and dirt every which way was on the other side of the earth. Radar Ranging shows that the ground and water heave up and down with this massive gravity pull. I believe the Telescope Laser system in Hawaii showed that. Martin #CWUBiology
I feel like making a BLT on pumpernickel.... toast.🍩 and really good donut.😊 Rumble, rumble, what was that...AN EARTHQUAKE!! All kidding aside, I live in West Michigan, Grand Haven, I don't think I need to worry about a tunami hitting us any time soon, but you never know what the future holds.
Absolutely love these lectures. My favorite geologist. Great teacher... but, please... FOX NEWS was the most sane of any of the alphabet stations. CNN was batsh*t crazy.
If a 9.0 magnitude earthquake struck the north west, it is very reasonable to assume that the infrastructure from interstate 5 west would be destroyed! Roads, utilities, and many structures.
Carefully placed energy weapons could maximize the Big One and right on schedule. Theoretically, it could raise the continent of Mu, especially if it is during a plate rotation like we had 12,000 years ago. Downtown Portland is only about 50 feet above sea level. The Portland airport is only about 22 feet above sea level.
I believe the thought is that the plate lock extends all along the Juan de Fuca/North American boundary, paralleling the seacoast for the entire length. In transform faults (like the San Andreas) they lock-in sections, so you get sporadic earthquakes up and down the length, but the evidence seems to that along subduction zones the lengths seem to break all at once.
I have a question. Considering the strength of the 1700 Cascadia quake when it reached Japan, are some of the sand breaks that Atwater surveyed sent to us from Japan, or can they all be definitely nailed on the door of the Cascadia fault?
Virtually all tsunamis produce sand layers so the Orphan Tsunami of 1700 undoubtedly produced its own sand layer. Virtually all tsunamis in Japan were preceded by a strong earthquake felt locally, with the exception of the Orphan Tsunami. That’s why it was called the Orphan Tsunami, the Japanese never felt the earthquake. As an aside, tsunamis can also be caused by asteroid impacts in the ocean. The Cascadia earthquake of 1700 produced a sand layer on the west coast of Washington and Oregon too, iirc. Undoubtedly it produced a smaller sand layer in Japan because the tsunami was probably smaller, on average, in Japan than in the USA.
Ring of fire baby comes with the territory I think it'd be all right though where I'm at Olympics act as a natural barrier I'd worry more about the base getting nuked
It sounded like you were saying, as far as the big one goes, that it hasn't been 500 years, so there is nothing to worry about in regards to that for now. My question would then be, if Oregon is half that time, and it's overdue, would that not affect all those same coastal regions, whether it originated there or not? If that is yes, then why give people a false sence of security that live in Washington? Maybe watching indonesia "unzip" would shed some real truth and light onto this subject. Because in reality, it wont matter where it starts to unzip from. It WILL affect WA., it will be devestating, and there will be a sugnificant loss of life. With that being said, sounds like WA, is just as much over due as Oregon, so people should understand that. It won't matter where along the cascadia subduction zone that it cuts loose, it will affect everyone along its path, and probably even clear to I-5 with damage from shaking. Be prepared, Don't be scared. Make sure you have somehting heavy to get underneath, to protect your head from falling lights/plaster / fans etc. Make sure your cupboard doors are secure with a latch of someknd. Be aware of the glass falling and breaking. Especially if the quake happens at night, you don't want to be running through broken glass. Secure your big screen, and have your emergency supplies in a bug out bag, handy by the door, in case you do have to evacuate.
It's a serious situation, Tammy. I wasn't trying to give a false sense of security. But was also trying to reduce some of the ridiculous interpretations as well. Partial Rips are different than Full Rips.
Fox? You watch Fox for a good laugh don't you, Nick? :) I think that NY woman gained some insider information but I don't think saying "toast" was meant to pertain to EQs. From what I've seen of the recent California fires I believe that is what is now meant as 'toast' and I do NOT believe these fires are accidental. I will try to remember the questions I have.
I am watching this in the fall of 2023. The laughter at the seeming absurdity of Fox News is somehow completely wholesome, and simultaneously a sorrow to watch because of the enormity of damage that was occurring underneath. Sort of like a subduction zone, I guess. The only clarity comes with hindsight.
Dr Zenter, you say "Reduce most buildings older than 1950 to the ground"? What does "Reduce....to the ground" mean? What do you think people will think when they hear this? Please clarify.
Question. If the tsunami of 1700 in Cascade kill people in Japan, why did the 2011 Japanese tsunami not kill people in America. The 2011 Japan Tsunami Was Caused By Largest Fault Slip Ever Recorded Clay lubricated the fault zone in the Japan trench, producing the devastating tsunami, researchers say. 3 Minute Read By Jane J. Lee, National Geographic
I think it may have something to do with how (direction/ horizontal or vertical slip) the plates moved during slip. I think the 1700 incident may have moved Vancouver Island north to Alaska westward more than we realize, instead of the 'millions of years' scenarios we have been taught.
I think that one of the obvious answers to this is that by its nature as an "orphan" tsunami, the Japanese people living on the coast of Japan in 1700 were wholly unprepared -- because there was no earthquake preceding the tsunami to warn that them one was coming. You also noticed during the 2011 tsunami, certain areas of the Pacific coastline -- mostly from southern Oregon to Northern CA, were much more impacted by the tsunami than other areas surrounding them -- much of that owing to both the topography of some of the harbors and bays along the coast -- which generally got a more pronounced surge, PLUS the topography of the continental shelf. One of the first things I noticed was that places like Crescent City and Santa Cruz, Brookings Harbor, Catalina Harbor, etc., had transform fracture zones and underwater canyons leading directly _to_ most of these harbors -- which MIGHT have intensified the speed and height of the tsunami waves in these areas. Possibly a "Venturi Effect," like the winds squeezing through the Columbia Gorge -- except that this was billions of tons of displaced water being squeezed up along submarine canyons and along underwater ridges and fractures in the oceanic crust. *_AND:_* We knew the tsunami was coming. I'm no geophysicist, but perhaps someday some brilliant scientist along the lines of Nick Zentner, Melbourne, , Goldfinger, or Atwater can study this and see how close my hypothesis comes to actual theory.
It's because tide doesn't have anything to do with it . Tsunami, the same plural as it's root word, means harbor wave or cove wave, more accurate. The Japanese understand tsunami quite well.
@@janbadinski7126 Tsunami | Large seismic earthquakes and tidal waves www.sms-tsunami-warning.com/pages/tsunami-definition Definition, etymology and tsunami wave train. ... About 86% of all tsunamis result from so-called sea-quakes. ... The term "Tsunami" comes from the Japanese language meaning "Harbor wave" ("tsu", 津 = harbor) and wave ("nami", 波 = wave). ... fallen out of favor because tsunamis actually have nothing to do with tides.
only Oregon which does not have a breakwater will get hammered with tsunami.......washington has the Olympic peninsula as a wave softener ......the people living there who like the cheaper property and the wilds........will have to take one for the team
You do not want to be swimming or treading water in a tsunami surge filled with debris. That is like being in a ball mill. You and your life vest will be turned into hamburger.
HAHA.. "That doesn't include tourists" Fox News Fake news... After listening to Nick I really want to go back to University and study Geology. Bear in mind I have 2 life science degrees already.
This is the second video I've watched of him on this exact subject and I still can't quite figure out if he is slamming the article/writer or not. He keeps saying 'beautifully written' but I don't think he means it. lol.
The problem with what the Fox news guy and people did is just take what the New Yorker had already said as being truth with out checking it we see this being done with all media these days taking others work and thinking it is the truth just to get a story and money out of it.
Always a good idea to ask "Why am I being told this and in this particular way?" Sensationalizing gets higher viewer ratings, which results in higher ad revenue.
On his best day, Shep Smith is the worst anchor for a hard-news hour I've ever had to endure. Given to hyperbole, sensationalism, and editorializing -- and this clip was a perfect example of a 2nd-grader trying to describe what happens during a subduction earthquake. Pathetic.
Ok video. I think he is obsessed with the word “toast” and yes the overhyped media. Facts show that the proposed 9.0 will be deadly and the worst disaster is US history. Will every person west of i5 be dead? No. But the public needs to know how serious the problem is and sometimes “worst case scenario “ gets more attention.
12:17 he then went on to shout FIRE in a theater before screaming "WE'RE ALL GOONNA DIIEEEE AHHHHHHHH" before throwing him self out of the 3 floor stdio window he leaves behind a wife and 2 kids when asked for comment they responded "who are you, how did you get in my bath room, omg wtf is that"
If I were west of the I 5 I'd be more concerned with an East wind when Mt. Rainier pops off. Depending upon my elevation of course A tsunami would not be in my mind.
