Oppenheimer's warning lives on 

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Nothing like waking up in the morning and getting reminded about nuclear winter. Have a great day everyone!

It’s unlikely that the first use threat is going to come from a relatively stable state actor, but from a new or unknown nuclear armed entity that has been attacked with conventional forces.

In 1965, the U.S.A. lost a nuclear bomb near Japan (at the Philippine Sea). It was kept a secret and only revealed to Japan in 1989. That nuke was never recovered. The wikipedia page is called "1965 Philippine Sea A-4 incident".

At this point, I hate to say, with humanity's track record of well-established behaviors of self-destruction and selfishness, it is only a matter of time before these weapons are used. Especially with zealots in the mix.

In my humble opinion, the biggest danger with nuclear weapons is that someone could misinterpret opponents move for an actual attack, or an accident causing a nuclear explosion. Then again, a world without nuclear weapons would be a lot less stable one. Imagine how close Soviet Union and USA got to a nuclear war. Now imagine what would stop then from an open war if mutual destruction was not on the table.

“Neglect breeds peril. When caution falters, the instruments of death impose their ruthless resolve” my god what a bar

Without yield restrictions it's still dangerous, less than 500 but has 10+ megatons yield is quite devastating.

The doomsday clock does not exclusively track the severity solely on nukes threat… that is a misleading point right there

To get rid of nukes all together you’d have to get rid of every single reason anyone anywhere would want to go to war. Otherwise if there is any chance of any kind of armed conflict nations should be trying to build the best weapons to destroy their enemies with. That’s kind of how war has always worked. Even when there are treaties that limit certain types of arms in warfare, once a real war actually breaks out those treaties go out the window.

So Russia, China, NK, Pakistan, India, Iran are to blame for the risks in 0:45 , but never USA nor Israel? Please remind me who actually used nuclear bombs against civil population.

I think the alternative is much worse. Without nuclear weapons, major powers would trigger world wars probably every 20-50 years with their conventional armies clashing on the battlefield. And we already had a few of those before. Yes, one nuclear war would destroy our planet forever, but I think that the odds of that happening are much more slim than having a conventional world war every 20-30 years (in the absence of nuclear weapons). Which would probably mean that the world would lose around 300 million or more people every 3 decades. In the grand scheme of things, the loss of life would be much higher compared to a nuclear annihilation that would probably never come. By owning nuclear weapons, conflicts between major powers are much smaller in scale and generally in the form of proxy wars, using third party countries. As a result, less people are dying and conflicts are generally confined in a smaller geographical area. I think WW3 would've already happened long time ago between the West and the Soviet Union, if they hadn't had nukes back then.

Very important thing to note, the science of a nuclear winter is heavily disputed, there are many papers that compare the level of debris to major volcanic eruptions and they tend to find that it would be very unlikely for us to trigger a nuclear winter as even volcanic eruptions that spew much more debris don't always. But the scientific consensus is let people believe a nuclear winter is a guarantee so they dont use the bombs

It's somewhat comical in a sad and dark sort of way just how much overkill there is in the quantity of nukes in the world. Thank you for another informative episode. Hopefully these terrible weapons will never be used. God be with you out there everybody. ✝️

Barbenheimer saying "I am death, destroyer of Barbie worlds" is so philosophical it changed my viewpoint on life and space

I had nightmares growing up during the Cold War. If you weren’t there you don’t know. The absurdity that we are closer now than ever before and it’s not on the societal radar says a lot about how our civilization sits on the fence. Go look at the pics from the Hiroshima blast and how the outlines from the shadows of the victims are still cast as if they are still standing there.

I think nuclear minimization is a great idea, honestly. It's resolved a lot of my uncertainty on whether it's better to abolish nuclear weapons, or keep them around as a deterrence

Patrolling the Mojave makes you wish for a 10:30

Stop worrying people. And start living. Problems occur when people get bored. Go outside, enjoy the sunshine, snow, rain, or whatever the weather is right now.

Awesome video. This message needs to get out more. Thanks for the detailed analysis of a nuclear winter and the minimum necessary.

Considering the critical lack of trust geopolitically, ain't nobody going to get into any treaty any time soon

I would like to say, everytime that a situation where nuclear war almost broke out, either by intention or through mistake, there has ALWAYS been at least one person unwilling to push the button. It takes multiple in order for nukes to be launched, and it seems that 1/3 of people have enough humanity in their hearts to not condemn the world to destruction.

Take a step back and think about the fact that we are debating to wich capacity we can reasonably annihilate each other and when it "might get too far" if we take the planet down with us... and we can't even agree on that! I have no idea how we managed to survive this long xD

Warheads have gotten more accurate, thus warheads can be smaller. You no longer need an 800kt-10mt nuke that takes out a city to wipe out the airbase or factory near by. So that’s good, though I suppose it makes them seem more practical, their use more “palatable” and reasonable since they have smaller “yields” and thus *appear* less “indiscriminate”.

When you get rid of nuclear weapons like Ukraine did, Russia or another large country will attack. Russia promised to defend Ukraine when Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons and look just how well that worked out.

USA =NATO why would Russia want or even Agree to reduce when everyone else is increasing? 😂😂🤨

No one will ever give up their nuclear weapons because of what happened to Ukraine.

More recent studies have repeatedly shown that nuclear winter probably wouldn’t be as bad as we thought. Yes, it’d still be really bad, and billions would likely still die, but it would not be a global extinction scenario.

Great content. You produce high value videos and they're always well researched. Your bias is obvious and that's natural because we are human and will always gravitate to one side or the other. Respect to you sir and thank you for keeping us informed 🙏

The doomsday clock is complete nonsense. Youre not seriously telling me that we are currently closer to nuclear armaggedon than during the Cuban Missile Crisis or Able Archer 83.

Nuclear minimization, according to your presentation, appears to apply only to the United States and the Russian Federation. A bad move for either party, as it leaves those nations in a state of parity, with the middle powers of the world, such as India and China, while extremist states such as Israel and North Korea are least likely to minimize or disarm, and yet remain perhaps the most likely to make use of them.

4:50 "Safety mechanism has prevented detonation." Nuclear bombs do not have safety mechanisms that prevent accidental detonation, because nuclear bombs cannot detonate by accident. They can be detonated by mistake, however. That's why they have safety mechanisms to prevent that. "By accident" means things like short circuits, concussive damage, corrosion, overheating, freezing, cracks, fire, explosions, someone sticking a finger where it doesn't belong... None of these things can cause a nuclear bomb to detonate. Nuclear weapons are so complex, and the detonation depends on so many things working together, that any accident or damage will make the bomb less likely to detonate, not more likely. Detonating a nuclear bomb by accident would be like dropping a bag of wheat on the floor and finding that it transformed into a bag of bread. "By mistake" means that someone initiated the ignition sequence, beause they thought WW3 has started.

In the intro you are talking about the threats from Russia, Pakistan, China and so on but you don’t even mention the US. That’s what one calls biased.

*Oppenheimer movie in theatres right now* RU-vidrs: “It’s free real estate”.

This reminds me of a quote from the late George Carlin "The planet is fine; the people are fucked"

Nuclear disarmament is impossible. Ukraine gave up their nukes in exchange for a promise from Russia to never invade them. We see where that got them.

Thanks for the the informative video Caspian. I work at ORNL in Tennessee and the amount of people that underestimate the destruction that would result of a full blown launch is kind of baffling. I hope and pray it never happens but your right. Whether through human/machine error or the upheaval of a normal war it's going to happen at some point. I would recommend a movie on the testing that the USA did called trinity and beyond, it was lots of HD footage but it's mostly informative of the line of escalation that we took development bigger and more destructive bombs.

Kinda reminds me of a 4x game I recently played where we all let the nukes fly. I "won" by default because I had one little colony in the Antartic as everyonescity's got vaporizers.

“The world gonna blow up… check out my sponsor”

"Here we are, arguably the most intelligent being that's ever walked planet Earth, with this extraordinary brain ... and yet we're destroying the only home we have." ~ Jane Goodall

bro really put a future career ad in a video about nuclear Armageddon

I must disagree with this notion that nuclear winter would end life on Earth. When the Iraqis set fire to oil wells during the first Gulf War, it was widely predicted by the likes of Carl Sagan that the plumes of smoke would cause something similar to a nuclear winter, minus the fallout, which would lead to mass famine and starvation across the Middle East. Needless to say, that didn’t happen. This is perhaps the closest thing we have to a real-life test of the nuclear winter hypothesis. Therefore, even though mass detonation of all nuclear weapons is a much bigger event, I’m very sceptical of these predictions of human extinction. The atmosphere is surprisingly good at removing things like ash and soot, so nuclear winter would be unlikely to last very long, if at all. But of course, that’s not what makes a good news headline.

Most countries do not want to give up their nuclear arsenal because most countries cannot build their military through the printing machine like the usa. Its much much cheaper to have 5000 nuclear heads than 5.000.000 conventional military personel.

We can destroy ourselves if we stay this dedicated just another few decades longer. C'mon guys, we can do it!!!

Always a pleasure to watch your videos. Keep up the good job. Thankyou❤

I like to believe this era we live in, is our species defining moment. We either break through this barrier, and set forth on a path to becoming multi planetary species, exploring the galaxy and stars considering we are stepping into the true golden age of space exploration.... or.... we fall into chaos under nuclear war, and civilization crumbles setting us back thousands of years of progress both technological and culturally. The next 5 years is going to conclude this era's chapter...what a time to be alive.

It all went downhill when Photoshopennheimer finally split the Adobe particle and created multiple different paid subscriptions

As a sentient species upon a planet that stares at the mother star....the only thing that comes to those that crave control...is the use of ultimate power. There is only one thing to change all of this...a new spiritual technology that will wipe away the tears of those that fear extinction.

Everything's perfectly.alright as long as the big guy gets his 10%.

I thought the scientific consensus was that nuclear winter is very unlikely or impossible

Thanks for not Kyle Hill'n the subject, this video is succinct and thorough. Great stuff, already can't get enough but ready for some positive coverage!

if you ever thought this channel was "unbiased/objective" (like it used to be), this is a perfect example of how Shirvan sold out. Sad

they are the greatest force for peace that has ever been invented. how quickly we forget about ww1 and ww2. if it weren't for nukes america and russia would surely have fought a war in europe by now

I read an analysis online, that estimated that there exists not enough nukes anmore to destroy the whole planes. Rather, the area would be that of Greece: - Only a third of nukes is operational, while the others are in maintenance. - Targets will be hit with more than one nuke. - It is questionable how many of the Russian nukes are even operational (refilling Tritium is costly and might not be tracked, making it a great opportunity for someone to pay his yacht instead). - The particle clouds of an explosion do not reach the upper atmosphere, so there will be no nuclear winter. I wonder how much of that is realistic. But there might be only one way to find out.

*Lord Vishnu in Gita - Now I am become death, destroyer of worlds* 🕉

Just the Canadian forest fire smoke has cooled our summers in Michigan so much the garden is 2-3 weeks behind

The only thing we can do is develop systems that can intercept these nukes. Russia claimed hypersonic weapons were un-intercept-able until the Patriot kept intercepting them over Kyiv.

absolutely fantastic video yet again Caspian, so clear and insightful. I guess that the post- Cold War generations have to get used to the fact that they're not only inhereting the previous generation's nuclear liabilities, but that more liabilities are being created within their time. We're not any safer, yet we have to shrug off that comfy, pervasive feeling that we are.

YOU. ARE. PEAKING. THE. MICROPHONE.

Great video!!

I always enjoy your videos but this one was particularly well done.

Its poetic, a single species that successfully conquered its planet in the span of many years all of a sudden decides to eradicate itself

Once Pandora’s box was opened there was no going back. Nuclear weapons force dialogue even when dialogue is not wanted. There also has been a reason why since WW2 no other nation has used nuclear weapons For children’s, children let’s hope they are never used

Great journalism overall. Intro Stats Explanation Outcomes Solutions I’ve been hosted; Mohammad From Toronto, Salam.

So I guess the point here is that nuclear proliferation will exist as long as there is significant mistrust between nations. So instead, instead of focusing on disarmament, world leaders should focus on building trust

This channel really seems to be going fast down the sellout route off late. Between its choice of sponsors, alarmist or clickbait topics, chasing trends (this video counts as BOTH of those things), biases to cater to its likely largest audience base, repetition of content to milk the most out of what sells, etc. I used to like Caspian Report, but nowadays it seems to be going down just as RealLifeLore already did (though different from RLL, whose approach seems to be to just saturate every topic he can can cover and hope that quantity makes up for quality)

Thank you for your input. Another great video 📹 👏 I can not wait for the next.

Fantastic work on this video!!!

Oppenheimer: "You see, my le bomb le killed people. Now I am become based, the destroyer of cringe."

"No first use" is total nonsense. Why would Russia declare NFU against nato whe nato can easily beat Russia in a conventional war. Even the inventors of this "no first use" nonsesne - the Indians said that their NFU doesnt apply to China. 😂

Thanks for sharing

The visuals are misleading. When you have a map and put a massive circle to show the nuke impact area, really it would be a single pixel. Nukes are far less powerful than you'd think, death radius of only a few km

I love the shots from Vienna in the background. Highlights your calm way of explaining

Decent road map for a stabilization of the nuclear threat that is posed by today's nuclear armed nations. Nice.

great, as always!

You forgot Canada when you showed the NATO nuclear umbrella.

The idea that someone would genuinely use the “Doomsday Clock” as an accurate scientific measure of danger is laughable.

The cold War never really ended, it's still going on

I'll bet Ukraine really regrets giving up it's nuclear weapons. And trading them for US and UK assurances was madness. You can bet North Korea will not make the same mistake.

Great report

the reduction is also pretty risky, if you sell it as that, they will have the capacity of destroying "just another country" it would make easier to use them in any scenario since theres no way you may end the world

Oppenheimer didn't wrestle with anything, he was paid very well and became very famous starting it.

Very good material 😎

It’s really insane like if 500 bombs is enough why have anything more then that? Like at most 600, but more where does it end? My grandfather used to tell me if the probability of any event happening is more then zero, than it will definitely happen

That "Impose their ruthles resolve" was something else Amazing video!!

How many nukes are floating out there in space disguised as civilian satellites?

Nobody wins a nuclear war. If one of those birds fly, then the world is over.

Rats didn’t invent mousetrap but human did their own kamikaze trap.

The fact that the acronym for the treaty keeping us from nuclear war spells MAD says a lot about civilization.. for now it's poetic if i may say so myself, we can only hope it never becomes foreshadowing

0:37: The Doomsday Clock stands at 90 Seconds To Midnight, the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been. 0:47: Multiple countries, including Russia, China, North Korea, Pakistan, India, and Iran, pose nuclear risks. 1:11: New technologies like AI have raised the risks of nuclear disasters to new heights. 5:19: Russia claims two of its missiles can destroy the entire east coast of the United States, while the US has enough firepower to waste over a dozen Russian cities. 7:31: China plans to triple its nuclear forces by 2035, potentially having 1500 nuclear warheads ready to launch. 8:07: Diplomatic negotiations for nuclear arms control have collapsed, and the threat of nuclear disaster has escalated. 10:11: Nuclear winter could result in a barren planet with dark, dry, and cold conditions, causing widespread famine and the end of life as we know it. 11:01: Current nuclear arsenals have the capacity to produce a nuclear winter and no nation or the global system can overcome its consequences. 12:52: Nuclear minimization measures, such as no first declarations, reducing alert status, and cutting down the number of nuclear warheads, may be a more feasible solution than complete disarmament. Recap by Tammy AI

Getting rid of nukes is like asking all the good guys to give up all their guns…

Love your work

But doesn’t having nuclear weapons prevent war and annihilation out of the fear of mutually assured destruction?

I miss Douglas Mcarthur

You cannot abolish nuclear weapons with today’s level of consciousness. Because if you abolish, there will be someone who, secretly or openly, will continue the development and armament.

Realistically, the world can never fully eliminate nuclear weapons. Mutually assured destruction has prevented any nation from using them so far, and maintaining that deterrence seems to be the only logical choice.

A very interesting book on this subject was written by Daniel Ellsberg… The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner. Highly recommended.

VERY DISAPOINTING!!! You have failed to separate politics propaganda & BS from real facts thumbs down.

the clock is at 90s to midnight for so many reasons it makes me numb!!!!!!

why were the research and copy editing names blurred in the end credits?