At this point, who cares what happens. ESPN & FOX have screwed all the smaller conferences. Almost impossible to built a team let alone a conference on a measely 4 or 5 million dollar payout. If they could get 15 to 20 million dollar contracts, they could make a go of it. They'd still be 20 to 30 million dollars less than Power 5 schools, but could make them competetive and worth watching.
UTSA Rice Memphis Tulane N. Tex Tulsa Or St. Wa St. SDSU Boise St Fresno St Wyoming UNLV Co. St With 2 years remaining on MWC TV deal, they will form at that time. Anything else is just a stopgap. I know Tulsa and Rice are not good at football. Look at the endowements, though. These are huge schools, money wise. You could plug in USF in place of North Tex, but that seems a bit far east for the "Pacific" conference.
PAC 2 should take Boise, Fresno, Air Force, and UNLV from the MWC. Tulane, Memphis, Rice, North Texas, Tulsa from the AAC, invite Sac State through a 4 year process to be an FBS team
I think New Pac is not going to be a thing after this year. Case in point Ten Power Five Schools have a million dollar offer for WSU Quarterback Cameron Ward. To enter the Transfer Portal. And OSU head coach Jonathan Smith. Jonathan Smith Alma mater Is Oregon state. but he took the Head Coach position at Michigan State. A power 5 school who is in a stable conference. And how is OSU and WSU Convince stable schools who are in a stable conference. To leave and join them
Money. Each MW school will get a little over a million to play one of the Pac-2 schools, that doesn't sound like a lot until you realize it's about a 25% boost to their entire payout under their current media deal.
I think this season helped prove that the MWC is more balanced than common wisdom (my own included) would have concluded, prior to this season. UNLV, SJSU, Airforce, Wyoming, all impressed this year. NMSt's good season offers hope for NM going forward, imo. NMSt beat Auburn for God's sake. If Im an investor in college football, like an Amazon wanting to buy a book of games, Im all over MWC+Pac2+AAC+select others.
Someone please explain exactly what the Pac 2 would have in 2026 that would make them mildly attractive to join? TV deal will not be significant larger than the MW new deal in 2026. Pac 12 network will be gone. CFP will no longer recognize the Pac 12 as a P5 conference (even if the NCAA does) which means no P5 share of the CFP revenue. And the revenue coming in to the Pac 2 in 2024, 2025 will be used to maintain their athletic departments. Oregon State and Washington State have no leverage when it comes to poaching anyone.
@@william_macI don't mean the rub salt in the wound but I keep hearing the PAC 2 are going to poach select schools from the MW in 2026. I just can't see how. It sucks but OSU and WSU need to accept their fate...join the MW instead of trying to save a conference that 10 other schools bailed on.
@@Alohanate2004The top 6 teams/brands in the MW leaving and joining the Pac-2 under their name which has a lot more history and prestige associated with it, along with maybe another pod of 4 teams from the AAC to create a new Pac-12 would be much more attractive than staying in the current conference the way it is. They would see their strength of schedules boosted, media revenue boosted, notoriety boosted, and the winner of that new conference would be almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff each year. Even if it's not considered a power conference anymore it would be far and away the best G5 conference there is. So increased playoff access would be another reason. Not to mention the potential for their own network if Wazzu & Oregon State retain the Pac-12 Network assets.
I think that as long as there are significant financial penalties to poach schools then there doesn't need to be a long term merger contract in place. I think that was left out so that OSU and WSU could continue to seek an invite from a P4 conference. If that invite never comes and we have penalties in place to poach schools then the likely route would be to just merge with the whole conference. Plus define the upper and lower tier of the MWC. With the ass kickings that we all dealt each other this year I would say we are probably the conference with the most parity.
After this season, there is no "top tier" of the MWC, arguably, same with AAC. Tulane, Memphis, UTSA, ECU, maybe USF, Rice, Tulsa, Temple, have very slight preferences over the other AAC members, but not huge preferences.
Tulane, Memphis, and USF all have pretty significant financial advantages over the rest of the conference. Tulane’s budget is smaller but they have less sports.
It seems unlikely to me that Gloria Nevarez & the MWC schools are going to these lengths of cooperation with OSU/WSU if they hadn't gotten some kind of assurance by OSU/WSU (written?) that any merger agreement under the Pac brand would have to include all 12 of the MWC schools.
If the Pac-2 gets a reasonable amount of Pac-12 revenues upon that settlement, the 2 can afford to pay the reported ($14 million per) fine agreed between the 2 and the MWC. BTW, I don’t think OSU & WSU have any interest in keeping George Kliavkoff. His continued employment possibly depended on certain departing schools getting theirs. He played mole more than commissioner.
I think the people running the MW know that OSU and WSU have no intentions of joining the conference and that some MW schools don’t want to stay for the next media deal so they might as well make some money together in the mean time. I think in two years half the conference leaves to form the new PAC. Most likely San Diego St, Fresno St, UNLV, Boise St, Colorado St, and Air Force. I think the remaining six teams(Nevada, SJ St, Hawaii, Utah St, Wyoming, and New Mexico) would try to stay together as the Mountain West and try to get UTEP and NM St to jump from conference USA, maybe add some FCS schools like Idaho, Montana, SD St, ND St if they were interested. If that can’t work I also think the remaining six schools joining UTEP and NM St in a new western division of Conference USA could be a possibility.
Why would any MW school leave? What advantage would joining a new PAC have over the current MW? Similar TV deal PAC no longer a power conference I don't see a reason to join a conference that was so badly run 10 schools left.
@@Alohanate2004 A similar size TV deal is worth more money per school if you split it among fewer schools. That's just simple math! If the other schools don't really increase the value of the media deal then why are you splitting the money equally with them? That’s how the MW conference was originally formed. The biggest schools in the WAC lead by Utah and BYU broke away to form their own conference to make more money. Also OSU and WSU want to build a conference with a strength of schedule strong enough that whoever wins it will have a very good chance of being one of the 5 highest ranked conference champs and make the playoffs most years.
@@terrencenewman5580 Simple math also states if you have fewer teams in a conference the tv deal would be less due to less inventory. Part of the reason the Big 10 got that huge deal was not only the big brands like Michigan, Ohio State and USC, but having 16 teams (now 18) that offers enough games for 3 different media companies. Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern and the other bottom feeders of the Big 10 did not drag down the value of the deal. The point I'm making is the PAC 2 have nothing to offer that's better than what teams already have in the MW.
@@Alohanate2004 with all due respect, you are 100% wrong. The BIG 10 got its big media deal when it was 14 teams before USC and UCLA joined. The SEC and ACC both had 14 teams. The one and ONLY reason why the BIG 10 makes more money through its media deal than any other conference is the fact that the Ohio St vs Michigan game is the most watched college football regular season game every year and there isn’t even a close 2nd. Over 19 million people tuned in to watch that game this year. The BIG 10 media deal has nothing to do with the size of the conference. If Ohio St and Michigan decided to leave the BIG 10 tomorrow the media money would follow them, not the other schools.
@@Alohanate2004 the biggest MW schools will make more money per school if they broke away from the smaller schools in less desirable media markets. It’s sucks to say that, I like the MW but thats the truth. San Diego St and Boise St have been planning their escape from the MW to a more lucrative media situation for a long time now. Forming a new PAC is their best way to do that.
Is this the end of the MWC? No. Why? Because OSU and WSU only want about 6 schools. That would leave the MWC with 5 teams. They could easily backfill with 2 Big Sky or MVC schools, that are every bit as good as the bottom half of the MWC, because they are perennial FCS championship contenders, and at least as good as James Madison. Is it possible that some MWC school might want to join the AAC? It's possible, which makes predicting the future so hard, because there are so many unknown variables. Always remember that FBS conferences are valuable invitation only clubs. There are many FCS schools who desire to join the elite clubs that constitute the FBS. How do we know this? Because the FBS raised the admission fee from $5,000 to $5,000,000. They realized that membership in their club was worth far, far more than a mere $5,000, so they raised the fee to what the market will bear, which is $5,000,000 which Delaware is agreeing to pay.
They may not even have to add FCS schools With Conf USA adding two new schools in the next 2 years with Kennesaw St and now Delaware, can add New Mexico St and UT-El Paso If there's still a penalty for poaching with the scheduling alliance, Pac may even add those teams and only 4 Mtn West teams New Mexico State would be a great addition no matter where they go but their state rival Lobos would prob stay in Mtn West Whichever conf adds El Paso would prob get the Pac-12's Sun Bowl affiliation since it's in their stadium and bonus of getting on CBS
Man Trey, you continually pack 10LBS in a 5LBS bag (45 minute) show. And this is a compliment. It just takes me longer to comment on each very good point. 1: HC Willie Fritz deserves COY. He might go to Houston if they wait. 2: No Portal Transfer will touch UTSA until it is finalized HC Traylor stays. 3: Temple has a horrible OC Langsdorf and an incompetent HC Drayton. Temple won 10 games in back to back seasons using a Power Running Backfield paired with good passing. Did either HC Drayton or OC Langsdorf watch any film of these 2015 and 2016 years? Hell no! They thought they were smarter than HC Matt Rhule. If OC Langsdorf had used a Power Running Backfield, 2 things would have happened. The 1ST, Temple RBs would have had a FB blocker to help the OL and TEs. 2ND, on pass plays, QB Warner would have had 2 extra blockers to thwart blitzes. If every formation was a Y or I, if QB Warner alternated between under Center and Shotgun, opponent defenses would have been forced in run box coverage until a pass play developed. With a 1.5 second QB Warner release time, this would have opened passing lanes and quick completions. OC Langsdorf is not a right fit for Temple. With OC Langsdorf, QB Warner is a better fit elsewhere. At 5’10” maximum, he would be hard to see winning starting QB role at say, Baylor. He would do better on a MAC, CUSA, or maybe some MWC team. I would always want him back at Temple as GA QB Coach. He is not NFL and not mobile enough for CFL. 4: The PAC2 was able to convince enough MWC schools, 6, to allow a poach in 2 years. There may be a deal to protect some MWC Administrators, as you suggested. The 6 I see are SDSU, SJSU, Boise State, UNLV, Utah State, and Colorado State. They will not be P5 and will not have Bowl tie ins other than as determined by the CFP Committee. 5. The MWC will not die. Montana and South Dakota will go FBS. There are CUSA schools who also might be interested. Their media deal will probably drop from $5 million to $2 million. The MWC core will be Hawaii, Fresno State, Nevada, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Air Force. Air Force will go AAC for all sports. This will leave 5 schools. Besides Montana and South Dakota, other potential adds could be Portland State and Sacramento State. CUSA schools include UTEP and New Mexico State. Idaho State could also return to FBS if required to balance out to 12 schools. 6: The PAC2 will not have any money to fund a build out. It will all be securing a media deal partner. Will Apple streaming be willing to pay $56 to $64 million per year on a 5 year contract to get a new PAC8? If not, ESPN might be willing to pay $32 million more to the AAC to add SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, and Air Force. This would be a linear coverage plus streaming deal. OSU and WSU might not have good options other than merge with a lesser MWC. It’s a bad hand played by OSU and WSU Administrators.
Hey, I like that you include Utah State in your 6 MWC teams that make the cut! Personally though I wouldn't want to have any of our institutions left behind. In fact, given that the big conferences are going to 16 + teams then I can see the G5 following that suit. OSU and WSU could merge and we could still pick up another 4 - 6 teams and be a "normal" sized conference. The Auburn slayers at NMSU might be a good fit along with UTEP. Maybe UNT, Rice, UTSA and Tulsa would be interested as well. Would then be easy enough for the AAC to backfill with strong teams in the east like Liberty and JMU until they are 18 - 20 teams. Those two conferences would be regionally viable and pretty much all of the middle strength schools of the FBS. Add a scheduling alliance between the two and that would be some exciting games.
@@Josh1888USU The AAC has major market schools. It prefers 15,000+ enrollment schools too. Only Georgia State, Buffalo, Toledo, and maybe Middle Tennessee State. I do not see any AAC schools joining a G5 PAC8/12. Western time slots means half the football audience will turn off games in the East, and Pacific audiences have other things to do with their time. If Tulsa or Rice flip, it allows for bigger schools. UTSA and North Texas are not leaving an increasingly good situation. The easiest path is for a PAC-MWC. This will not happen because the PAC2 are under a delusion they will retain P5 status. They will not. Both ESPN and Fox have low valuations of OSU and WSU; about $8 million. They may not get many financial relief from pending Court settlements of PAC12 assets. An Apple Streaming deal for 5 Seasons might not even equal the ESPN/Fox valuations. They are not State Flagship AAU schools. On the other hand, OSU and WSU will increase MWC value by much. They could want a Boise State media deal OR force equal distributions at the $7 to $8 million range. But who would pay this amount? ESPN already has the AAC and part of the B12 content. Fox has a West Coast includes B1G. It also has the other part of B12 content. I see downward pressure to limit Fox exposure with Big East Basketball and their MWC deal. There is a chance NBC Sports or CBS Sports would pick up this content. Both offer linear and streaming exposure. Apple could not match this exposure. The AAC could also add 7 Western schools. This would give the 21 schools in 3 Divisions. For Football, this would mean playoff with a Wildcard best record Team. Either an OOC would be dropped or Championship Game would be the weekend after the Army-Navy Game. If done this way, the Championship might have an early Bowl sponsor. There is a lot TBD.
Well if the pac conference survives they at least will have the last Vegas bowl as a tie in bowl. It’s a pac bowl and the only way out for them is to sue or to have the conference die.
Just want to thank you again for another great season with your podcast. I wanted to bring out something you might want to share with your listeners. It is something that is being overlooked for the most part, but is one of the most amazing stories of the football season this year. I am talking about the Liberty Flames and their undefeated season! They lost 53 players this past year, leaving them with only three starters on offense, and three starters on defense! On top of that, they have a completely new coaching staff, who was trying to just keep their freshman from Going somewhere else, and grabbing whoever they could from the transfer portal to put together a team for this year. Then they lost their likely two starting wide, receivers to season ending injuries during summer camp. Coach Chadwell, his staff, and this young football team has done is nothing short of amazing!
If they already have one of the two (Oregon State) scheduled, They play the other team(Washington State) not scheduled also. #mountainwest-pac2 agreement
I believe that the "Pac-2" prefers to see if they can take the best MWC teams and see if they can convince some western half AAC teams (Memphis, some of the Texas schools etc) would also join. Not sure if they would or not though. My alma mater Temple would cut football before joining a conference of schools mainly west of the Mississippi but maybe USF has a different opinion.
That is what I am thinking. You take all five for an East Coast block, and then the 2 PAC schools, plus SDSU, Bosie, Fresno, Colorado, and maybe UNLV and you have a 12 team conference. The issue is, what type of TV deal are these schools getting?@@CatsClaw44
Let's look at the big picture. WSU and OSU are interested in keeping the PAC 12 name, assets, and CFP payouts for the next two years. It is not a secret that anyone is keeping from the MWC. The MWC has the same two years remaining on their TV deal and afterwards the schools would be free to explore new opportunities. Both the PAC 2 and the MWC are content to have an arrangement during these two years. The next step is exploring a new deal with some combination of schools. The low would be the $60 to $70 million the MWC now split. The high could be $140 to $150 million. There will be some serious conversations regarding whether the money would be split 8 ways in a smaller conference or more than 14 ways in a larger conference. Some schools may not come close to being plausible fan bases to be in this new conference.
This MW deal still leaves open the possibility of the top schools from the AAC going along with the top schools from the MW. I still think that happens unless the ACC decides it wants USF, Tulane and Memphis.
Both AAC and MWC are well balanced with good schools. They absolutely should merge. They would be a "Power" conference. They could further add top schools from the other G5 to boot. I'm thinking Liberty, James Madison, Troy, AppSt, Toledo, Ohio, Marshall, Coastal Carolina, NMSt.
Top schools??? Or temporary top Coaches??? There is no guarantee Tulane would always be competitive. OSU and WSU are NOT generating any media interest now. The MWC reflects its lesser media value than AAC teams. Being Pacific centric is not a better value than being Atlantic centric. Army and Navy are bigger long term values than OSU and WSU will ever become. This means there is a greater chance for MWC schools joining the AAC than AAC schools defecting to a new PAC8 or PAC12. The PAC2 will NOT have P5 status after this year’s NY6 games are played. The CFP Committee will vote them out.
@@CharlesFosterMalloy Absolutely not. Merging two G5 conferences together does not magically create a new power conference. It would just create a new huge G5 conference (or G4 in this case). You're crazy if you think the vast majority of teams from those 2 conferences could just be considered P5 programs overnight with such a simple change as merging with another conference. If that was the case they would have done it a long time ago.
I think a reverse merger would leave out Hawaii and New Mexico before leaving out Colorado State and Air Force. Colorado state has it very new stadium and Air Force has an amazing stadium that seats 50,000 people. Both are much stronger than Hawaii and New Mexico and other secondary programs in the mountain west
I think only Hawaii and Nevada are the MWC teams that would be left out. Even though I wouldn't want that to happen. Air Force would be a solid in, CSU would make it because of their commitment to their facilities and their budget, despite not showing it on the field very much lately. Utah State and Wyoming could be looked at critically because of market size but we both get respectable numbers at the games (they travel from all over the state of Wyoming to fill that stadium); much like WSU does being in Pulman. New Mexico is shaky because of being a very crappy program but ABQ is a "bigger" market for the conference so they have that. All the others would make the cut easily, before this season I would have been critical of UNLV and SJSU but they both performed very well this season.
@@Josh1888USU I’d take Nevada over NM. New Mexico has no real rivals or attachments in the league. They’ve had no success over time. Nevada is much more central and has a big rival with Las Vegas. My take on that one, ha ha! Colorado State had a good season, they were 5-7. Had they beaten Hawaii, they would’ve been bowl eligible. They have a nice on campus stadium and seem to be committed to it.
People keep forgetting Hawaii is football only and by then the new stadium will be built. Plus Hawaii always being the late game and no California schools need to be in that super late time slot, it would end the need for games being played while the east coast is already sleeping for those on the west coast schools.
It’s saying if they already had Wazzu or Oregon state, that they would also play the other team from that pair and that would be the game that is in the scheduling arrangement.
I think the portal opens up December 4th. Maybe I'm wrong? Somebody can correct me on this. If the portal opens up December 4th. How can somebody go into the portal before that date? Please educate me! Or maybe Trey Smith needs educated?
What are you correcting? The semantics around EJ Warner and JaMori Maclin announcing they’re hitting the portal? I wasn’t approaching this as if I was breaking the news, I was reacting to what was already announced by both the players I discussed
I think you are no too far off. I think the PAC2 want to be on their own for two years & add 6 MWC teams when their media deal ends. That want no one has to pay a penalty for eciting the conference. That will bring them up to 8 teams, leaving room for the next cut in re-alignment, when it is likely more P4 teams will end up relegated like OSU & WSU were. This is just my guess. Personally I would prefer a reverse merger with the MWC, I don't want any of the MWC teams hurt like OSU & WSU were. Go Beavs!
Let's deal in fact and not speculation or hyperbole - which is what the internet is known mainly for. So I'm going to approach this with logic (which is a very dirty word on the internet and is seen with disdain by the barstool blowhards who make these YT videos). First, the MWC escape clause is a rolling deal for the conference. That's how it's structured. It was done that way because everyone knows you can only trust your fellow conference members as far as you can throw them. In other words, the $17M or $34M dollar escape penalty does not disappear. Why? Because the MWC as it is presently constituted will be signing a new media rights deal either next summer or winter and they will likely see a bump in their rights fees. 8 of the 11 full-time members must vote to approve the new contract. Speculation on my part, I don't believe the schools (especially those that might want to leave) will vote down a new media deal because as we saw with the San Diego State dalliance with the PAC-12, there are no guarantees that a merger where the PAC-2 takes only what are felt to be the six most worthy schools will actually result in that coming to pass. Secondly, if the schools foolishly vote to not accept a new media deal for all 11 FT members AND a PAC-2/MWC merger doesn't occur, that leaves the MWC with NO TV rights deal and then it very much becomes a buyers market where the networks can lowball the conference into taking whatever piddly amount they wish to pay. That has to be front and center in the minds of the Presidents, AD's and the commissioner. Now, once the MWC signs it's new media rights deal, it would cost the PAC-2 around $200M dollars to get six schools out of the MWC GOR. I can't believe that a reconstituted PAC-2 +6 is going to be worth $200M to build. No way. This would be a conference with two lower division P4 schools and six high-level G5's. It makes for a nice conference but it's not one that CBS, ESPN or anyone else is going to pay a premium to own. When the PAC-12 revenues are all sorted out, OSU and WSU may end up with nearly $400M bucks but I can't believe they want to spend that money on building a new conference. They need those dollars to pay the debt service on their athletic department debt, including expensive stadium renovations in Corvallis and Pullman. One more consideration: To effect a reverse merger with the PAC-2, the MWC members must first vote to dissolve their conference. The MWC schools will do no such thing until they have signed the paperwork to join the PAC-2/MWC. I mean, how stupid do you think these Presidents and AD's are? All of the schools (even the ones people call "weak sisters" or "dead weight" have very good lawyers working for them. You don't think those lawyers are going to tell a university president "Yeah, go ahead and sign the paperwork to dissolve the conference cuz we can trust that the new guys are going to treat us right and bring us in to the new conference.". Really? What kind of ganja are you smoking to believe those people would be that careless? Schools like Hawaii, New Mexico, Wyoming, Nevada, San Jose State, and Utah State are not going to vote "Yes" to cut their own throats. No assurances from Boise, Fresno or San Diego, notwithstanding are going to work to encourage these schools to accept any deal that is not an ironclad contract in writing. OSU and WSU are going to have to accept the entire MWC as is or it's no deal at all. And raiding the AAC for schools won't work either. AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco has said there's no interest in his schools in joining up with OSU and WSU. The fundamental problem is the TV dollars are too small and the travel costs are too high. There is no combination of two old P5 schools and a bunch of G5 schools that is going to generate the media dollars necessary to make another coast-to-coast conference worth pursuing. I fail to see what the problem is with accepting the entire MWC in a new conference with OSU and WSU? It's not like those two schools are blue bloods like Michigan or Ohio State. They are decent, pedestrian former Power conference programs that occasionally get really good and make some noise. Competitively, some of the MWC schools are their equals in football. And why does it matter negatively in anyone's life if Nevada, Utah St., SJS and Hawaii are in the same conference with Oregon State and Washington State? It's just football folks and in the grand scheme of life, it ain't that important. You know what is important? Finding a cure for cancers and finding a cure for pandemics, so we don't end up with another epidemic catastrophe that destroys our lives and economy. That's the important shit in life, not a football alliance.
@@markcarbonaro6524 Unless you can show me in the MWC bi-laws where each school would still have to pay an exit penalty I will assume they work like other conferences and are free to go when their current GOR expire. However you are correct, if the PAC were to pay exit fine for six MWC to leave this year it would be for 34 mil per team (204 mil), or the end of next year 17 mil (102 Mil). The MWC GOR will expire after the 2025 season and each team would have to sign on to the new GOR deal. You can force them and I don't believe the MWC has a penalty for not signing. This is unless you can provide the MWC bi-law that states otherwise, speaking logically of course. Like I said before in my previous post, I don't want any team in the MWC left behind. I am a Beaver fan & know how it feels, but I was just giving my opinion on what I think OSU & WSU are attempting to do.
San Diego state couldn’t even get mountain west schools to leave for the PAC before Stanford and cal left. The mountain west will just wait out the pac schools until they are forced to join. The American schools have said they don’t want to travel out there unless there’s significant financial benefit and I don’t think the payout would be more than a couple million than what the American schools already had.
How could San Diego State supposedly join a conference that didn't invite them? The Pac didn't expand because they had to wait out Stanford and Cal and now the legal situation. Once that's settled MWCs will leap at an invite to a rebuilt Pac-12. The brand name alone is a far more valuable than the Mountain West brand.
@@CatsClaw44 let me be clearer: sdsu was trying to get other mountain west schools to lobby the pac 12 to let them in. There were some reporters discussing that around the time the pac was down to four. I’m not insinuating that sdsu was actually in the door to the pac at all
@@CatsClaw44What brand name value? The prestige of a conf. is in the members, not the name of the conf. PAC-12’s brand (the Conference of Champions) means nothing w/o USC, UCLA, Stanford, UW. You know, the schools that actually won most of those championships. I’m not trying to be mean, but the reality is that even if the PAC-2 somehow manages to keep this league operating, the prestige is gone. And so will the TV money & media exposure.
@@mikemccabe8015 the brand name value may erode but owning the rights to the history will provide serious value. You can sell that in various ways. See how the ACC has monetized their history with their hall of fame
