Patek Philippe’s Stunning Decline: Is It the Biggest Loser in 2024?

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Patek Philippe Market Update: The Shocking Downturn No One Expected!
Welcome back, watch enthusiasts! Today, we're diving into a jaw-dropping revelation involving Patek Philippe-a brand many believed to be invincible in the luxury watch world. But the latest market data tells a different story, one that may shake up everything we thought we knew about high horology.
Could Patek Philippe, the king of luxury timepieces, actually be losing its throne? The numbers are in, and Patek might be seen as the biggest loser in the current luxury watch market. We’re breaking down the most surprising data points, with Patek Philippe's models taking unexpected hits and a few unlikely contenders rising to the top.
Join me as we explore the hidden stories behind the numbers-which models are struggling, and which ones are defying the odds? From sharp value shifts across the Nautilus, Aquanaut, and Calatrava collections to the surprising rise of stainless steel models, there’s plenty to unpack, and it’s bound to leave you stunned.
This is independent market analysis with no strings attached-no sponsorships, no dealer influence-just the raw truth from an economist who’s passionate about watches. If you thought Patek Philippe was untouchable, think again. The luxury watch market is evolving, and Patek’s position is not as secure as it once seemed.
Don't miss out on these insights that could change the way you see luxury watch collecting. Like and subscribe for more hard-hitting watch market analysis, and make sure to click the bell icon so you never miss an update.
*#PatekPhilippe #WatchMarketUpdate #LuxuryWatches #WatchCollecting #Horology #PatekSurprise #WatchCharts*

Опубликовано:

14 окт 2024

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Комментарии : 88

@RobertTaylor-ub6hv 3 дня назад

Hey I think you have the 5712A Nautilus mixed up with the 7300 24 automatic. I can’t find the 5712 anywhere for less than $80-90K . Always love the content.

@omegajason 2 дня назад

I agree that there must been some sort of typo. I almost spat out my coffee when I saw a 5712a could be had for 22,5k.

@fullspectrum2752 2 дня назад

I agree, when I saw this I was like where? I will go buy that now at that price.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Could be. I do make mistakes. 84 models was a lot of analyze.

@ahmedarnab954 2 дня назад

I mean the 5712 is an extremely popular patek. It should stand out for any watch enthusiast even if one were to analyse 200 watches. Great work in the video but a GLARING mistake with the 5712, sorry

@1trife90 День назад

Ha literally paused to Google 5712 to see if I had missed something.

@JLim3111 2 дня назад

When watch brands don’t realise their customers are ultimately consumers, they only have 2 wrists and 99% of them only wears a watch on 1 wrist, it’s a matter of time consumers forsake the brand altogether. A watch was never a necessity and never will be one

@Lpreilly72 2 дня назад

@@JLim3111 Watch smartwatches commit market murder as their prices continue to fall. A watch is a convenience providing you with information at the turn of a wrist. And once you buy into that convenience you abandon the old. Apple wins almost by default. My grandkids can’t even read an analog clock. Why would they buy a Rolex? They’ll find some other way to spend large amounts of money. IMHO

@jamessmith-on3jf 2 дня назад

The real problem with Patek is the wrong people bought them for the wrong reasons. A luxury watch is meant to be enjoyed then passed on, any of my friends and family who own rolex/cartier/patek will never sell.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

I would never sell my Patek. But then, I can't justify buying one on my salary.

@JC-hu3yj День назад

10:02 was wrong. Twenty-4 Automatic is not 5712/1A (Nautilus Moon Phase Power Reserve), and 5712-1A is not traded at $22K.

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

Haha yes, I did miss that in my check.

@WestCoastAce27 3 дня назад

Great analysis as always. Obviously the limited numbers made has something to do with those 3 high flyers. Just more evidence that those who think luxury brands will move away from steel to precious metal only (like the laughable ’Rolex will leave steel for Tudor’ theory) are sadly mistaken.

@dannysimenauer5745 День назад

Kudos for such a well done analysis of Patek. I have no idea what fancy terms an economist would call what is happening with Patek’s prices on the gray market declining below their retail price, but It all starts with keeping its watches “unobtainium”. Patek makes it almost impossible for a collector to buy a Patek at an AD. Therefore, many collectors are TURNED OFF to the point where we don’t buy a Patek even on the gray market! Apparently there are enough of us collectors have lost interest in the brand, so the prices are falling. I have my eye on a particular Patek that is affordable but is not at my strike price yet.

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

I feel the same way. I went to their boutique and found that you couldn't try on their models. Maybe you needed to make an appointment? But I got the feeling they wouldn't let me into their club.

@RatajStrozynska 2 дня назад

Love your channel with so many stellar watches! For me the MAMACOO’ watch is my favorite. Keep the videos coming. Thanks.

@dannysimenauer5745 День назад

What is MAMACOO?

@loo9407 2 дня назад

Amazing vid!! I remember when the 5980 in Rose Gold was being listed for 450k during Covid 😂😂. Times have changed

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Yes, and you can tell from the comments that some people are pretty pissed about their pieces dropping in value.

@HrnaNeuhoff 26 минут назад

Great video, very accurate analysis. In my 4.5 years in the game as a watch collector and enthusiast, I collected a lot from MAMACOO I was thinking I was able to get a blue SD but I'm not vip enough, but I'm not giving up. Hehe. Great video.

@Milofchg 2 дня назад

Great insight but we must remember with Patek Philippe what’s holding value or still over retail are any variants of the Nautilus and Aquanaut. They are still way over retail in the used market but no where near pandemic hype prices. Everything else in the Patek world is mostly classic dress watches that barely hold value. However in a decade or two these classic Patek models will increase in value in the collector market. The only classic models from Patek that are over retail and hood some value are grand complications watches. Especially with minute repeaters, tourbillions, or perpetual chronographs. These are true collectibles. We have to take in consideration the volume of yearly production for Patek Philippe. Right now it’s all about Patek Philippe entry level sports models that are still in demand but over valued. Patek Philippe know this, they appreciate the free marketing, exposure, but do not like their timepiece sold and traded by people who are just not traditional Patek Philippe customers. They discontinued a few basic sports models because it takes attention away from what they are best known for… Classic high Horology.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

All the analysis I've done shows that complications are punished in the secondary market; but it's true that they might appreciate over time. One way to play this would be to buy high complications are current steep discounts and see if they go up in value over the years.

@anandagarwal7237 11 часов назад

Excellent analysis

@MrConraA 2 дня назад

Do you think serving costs have anywto do with the move away from complications?

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

What do you mean by 'serving costs'? I personally hate rotating my watches and having to set the date again.

@junaidsyed2308 2 дня назад

Where are you getting 5712 A for such a low price? Couldn’t find anything on Chrono’s

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

All the data comes from Watch Charts on this one

@remus2001 2 дня назад

He messed up. He combined the Twenty~4 with the 5712. It’s a pretty stunning mistake from someone pontificating on Patek.

@joezunenet День назад

Your analysis is a bit misleading, for example the nautilus did drop but the watches in that collection are usually trading way over retail. Also, you’re implying that people are turning back to steel, but I highly doubt that’s the case. The steel models are getting rarer as PP gradually moves to precious metals. So this would make sense, the steel cases becoming rarer, raising the prices. While customer demand might be a factor, I think it’s mostly due to short supply. And finally, like everyone said, you got the 5712 way wrong.

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

But that doesn't explain why precious metals are dropping so fast below retail. It's overall demand.

@Eric-i1r 2 дня назад

I’d buy an Aquanaut at retail. I guess lots of people would.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

It's still selling over retail. I would only buy it if you truly loved the watch. It's a lot of money.

@ManeraVandyck 23 часа назад

God!!! MAMACOO Who would have thought those gorgeous watches go for that low!!!

@chrispap1964 22 часа назад

In my humble opinion the secondary market has nothing to do with a company's performance and growth. Sure the CURRENT line-up secondary market value, reflects on whether a model gets the approval of the consumers and for sure some models were/are/will be a miss, Patek Philippe models included.The line-ups are massive nowadays and inevitably some models will not fair well with consumers. It is similar with cars for example, BMW for example 20 years ago had 3 models 3series, 5series and 7series, now you get a headache looking at their line-up and obviously some models are a hit and some are miss. And for sure its a mistake for any company or so called investors to believe that anything that comes out will be a hit.

@mywatchjourney6579 20 часов назад

You raise of lot of good points. I don't judge a company because their products lose value on the secondary market. I take two things from this. First, the crazy pricing of the pandemic is truly dying down. However, this image of Patek as being above market conditions is refuted by my analysis. No one is exempt from the reality of consumer demand.

@Brianpoconnell 2 дня назад

5712…….i think not. Unfortunately

@gavinwhite9743 2 дня назад

These affect real world purchases. I'm not in Patek scale of purchases, but I am looking for a gold Rolex. My local AD was lovely, let me try on gold GMTs, Subs and Yachtmasters. I was offered various models for immediate purchase, even with finance. However, every model was at least 6k gbp more than secondary market. It can only be a matter of time before discounts at Ads return.

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

Agreed. Let's wait. Those precious metal models are getting hit very hard in the market.

@F15IDriver 2 дня назад

y axis is from 200k to slightly above. with such close indexes, any drop would look more dramatic

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

It's still a significant drop. And many individual watches have fallen more.

@jt.8144 2 дня назад

How much for the cost? Exactly.

@KC-bv9kf 13 часов назад

Unless it’s a black card, I don’t think any credit card will suffice, lol. Thanks for the work done 👍

@stevenbrown4060 2 дня назад

As much as Patek does not want to be defined by the Nautilus & Aquanaut, the way we dress has become much less formal. The Calatrava, 5172G and PCC are quintessential Patek, but I am a minority. Maybe Pateks imminent new release is Pateks concession to the demand for sport/casual trend. I will be very surprised if a reference is released that is in steel and time/date format!

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Agreed on the new dress code. I used to wear a suit at work. Now it's whatever.

@hhz5469 День назад

It is not Patek, or any of these luxury watch brands. It is simply an economic cycle. Collectively, the declining 2024 number is likely the best for these brands when look back several years from now.

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

I'm going to make a video about why the decline, especially for Rolex, will continue.

@BigNobodies 2 дня назад

All of these trends are based on aftermarket sales. These brands don’t care, especially when retailers will pivot to selling you pieces underperforming on the after market in order to get the pieces that do perform well. Only the customer loses here.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

The brands do care, especially about flipping. And the customers benefit when secondary prices are below retail. At the least, the wait list is shorter.

@BigNobodies 2 дня назад

@@mywatchjourney6579They care about flipping, only to the degree they prefer there wasn’t a secondary market and that customers weren’t encouraged to sell their watches for a profit. Rolex CEO Jean Dufour is quoted saying, “watches are not an investment.” And they aren’t, secondary market is based purely on demand, “the flavor of the month.” 5167 Aquanaut is a $24k watch, at that height it’s resale value was $100k this drove Patek mad because what happens is the watch is treated like a commodity and the rest of the line is ignored and true collectors lose out. Brands want the secondary market to disappear. Also, there is no such thing as waitlist, it’s a myth. All authorize dealers go by spend history, if you buy nothing and just wait for an in demand watch you wait forever.

@facetiousmonkey5322 День назад

I use to want a Patek because it was a brand that NO one except true watch collectors wanted. Now it’s more popular than Rolex for influencers and the nouveau rich

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

Most people don't know the name, certainly not the history. But since watches are now jewelry, it's gotten worse with the hype.

@facetiousmonkey5322 День назад

@@mywatchjourney6579 I remember seeing my first Patek out in the open. The year was 1996 and I was newbie working at HSBC. I rocked a TT Datejust left to me by my dad (RIP 1995). One of my colleagues complemented my Rolex and said it was a nice watch for a junior associate. I looked down and saw it. Calatrava. “Trade you straight up!” He chuckled. My fellow new associate chimed in “What the hell? You’d trade your Rolex for that?” I told him there’s no way he would trade his Patek Philippe for a Rolex! “What the hell is a Patty Phillips?” Not everyone was into watches back in 1996 😂

@RubyRoseLee 2 дня назад

10:01 😅😂

@AbbotHolzhauer 23 часа назад

All dat MAMACOO watches sssssoooooooo gorgeous！

@Lpreilly72 2 дня назад

A clock on your wrist when you can get an Apple & have the time, appointments, blood glucose rating, blood pressure, internet, e-mail and a thousand other apps for less than $400…or you can get a clock for $15,000. And the Apple keeps better time because it’s on line! I have a Timex Expedition. $39.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

I do appreciate my smart watch. But the love of mechanical watches remains.

@Lpreilly72 2 дня назад

@@mywatchjourney6579 why? What is it about mechanical watches that you love and how do you feel about quartz watches?

@Lpreilly72 2 дня назад

I can see that. I just can’t afford it! 🤗 But yeah, if I ever have 10 grand laying around…!

@shanghaiffgg 2 дня назад

For the same reasons that people spend big money on art. They enjoy the art and being able to afford to buy it is a status symbol.

@Lpreilly72 День назад

@@shanghaiffgg I think you’re right. Thorstein Veblen in the 1920s called it “conspicuous consumption”. (The Theory of the Leisure Class). If they dropped the price of a Rolex to $200, perhaps nobody would want it. But charge $15,000- status symbol.

@DecemberNames 2 дня назад

a $22k PP is sure an affordable watch even at 40% drop hehe

@mywatchjourney6579 День назад

Yeah, affordable in the world of luxury watches is something else. I started with Casio and worked my way up to Rolex. But I can't justify any higher.

@jjlad5037 2 дня назад

All luxury goods are getting hammered. Happened before, will happen again. For those who have kept their powder dry, opportunities are imminent.

@choyayahyah 2 дня назад

It's called a weak economy. The more expensive watches are going to lose more value. It's just the way it works. But for people like me who like the grand complications and like the gold It's a good thing

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Precisely. Economists call it elasticity of demand. The higher the price, the more flexibility in price adjustments.

@DamonAdmire День назад

5712 is not trading in the 30’s

@ellardgrudzinski 8 часов назад

I have never been disappointed since I became a customer of MAMACOO. Their watches are of exceptional quality.

@stanblein6233 2 дня назад

You are way off in your comments and analysis 😂 (1) consider that retail prices have increased due to inflation (2) do you homework, some of the models you show are discontinued, btw a 5712A at 22k 😂😂😂 I would love to live in your world.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

I always enjoy people telling an economist to study inflation.

@TheVladTepes 2 дня назад

This video is complete waste of time. Your Y-axis is distorted, because it doesn‘t start from zero. It tells nothing.

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Wrong, it starts from the value of the index 2 years ago. When did Patek sell for zero dollars?

@TheVladTepes Час назад

@@mywatchjourney6579 you still didn't get it? Now why don't you re-create charts in Excel, one starting like this and other starting from zero. You will see that the curvatures are totaly different. It is not about zero dollar Patek, but about curvature shape.

@jkw6196 2 дня назад

the good days of ultra high margin swiss watches are numbered as consumers smarten up

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

Clearly, spending money is being directed elsewhere. Also, China is in a deep hole and not coming out soon.

@JohnnyBeans-w9k 2 дня назад

I can only afford Rolex watches. PP is way over priced

@shanghaiffgg 2 дня назад

Most asters bubbled up during Covid and then fell to earth after. Couple this with the bust of luxury spending coming from the Chinese and you have your answer. What this means is that the market is trying to the norm therefore there is no recovery to be had. The correction IS the decline.

@garywynne8122 2 дня назад

You’re an economist, interesting they really are very good at telling you what has happened ….but I suggest you haven’t got a clue about the future. Nice graphs mate

@mywatchjourney6579 2 дня назад

No one is good at predicting the future. But so far, I'm batting a thousand on the market direction. See my earlier predictions.