If you just look at the aggregate macroeconomic data the economy looks pretty good although that's all because of federal deficit spending in the short term that we have to pay back in the long term. But the reason why CPI looks good is because it's been changed and is totally artificial they change it for some good reasons to measure what rates do to it. But taking out energy most of housing cost and food totally separates CPI from the average real persons situation. For example in 2019 versus now per month I make $2,000 more pre-tax but when you look at the same house in my town the mortgage went from $1,400 per month to $4,200 per month if you were to purchase it now My food cost is up 40% My energy costs have more than doubled so have my cost to fix anything at my house. If you're a person that owned assets like real estate in stocks the economy is doing quite well if you're a person that earns W-2 income and does not own a home or real assets like stocks then you're quite a bit further behind than you would have been. This is just objectively true and gets lost when you only look at macroeconomic data and not actual people. There is no statistical average person that votes...
Yeah, that's the pandemic, which was partly out of the control of governments, and partly within, but who was president in 2020 and dismissed the virus?
I've got what may possibly be a fairly crazy view of economics: which is that Presidents have very little to do with it, under most circumstances. (Unless they sign onto bad policy written by Congress, as Trump did when they passed the tax break for billionaires in 2017.) I look for the President and his party to help create (or maintain) the conditions for business to flourish. This does NOT mean they should roll over for business and return us to the pollution of the 1950s and 1960s, for example. I need responsible policy that sets rules for business and holds it accountable if those rules are broken. (Which DID NOT happen after 2008--for instance, no one was strung up by their thumbs, that I can recall.) But in general, if you ask me who I trust more with the economy, Democrats are the party of responsible business development and are good stewards of public money. In contrast, Republicans have been pirates, plundering the economy for he benefit of themselves and their corporate masters.
Any presidential effect on economics is long-term. For instance, Carter's appointment of Paul Volcker to Chair of the Fed in 1979 is widely credited with bringing stagflation under control, but it took several years to see an effect. Carter was out of office by then, and Reagan got the credit, even though his policies had nothing to do with it, nor could they have, as Reaganomics didn't get implemented until 1983. 1983 is also when income inequality began to grow again in the USA, due to trickle-down policies, although it took many years for people to really start feeling it. People still think of the mid-late 1980s as a boom decade, even though the seeds of future discontent started then. It took many more years until it got to ridiculous levels and the outrage began after the Great Recession, which Bernie Sander harnessed in 2016. Clinton's economic policies were good for the era and helped make him very popular, although the economy was booming in the 90s due to the Digital Revolution anyway and he was smart enough to capitalize on that with his support of the expansion of the Internet and office computing. Other policies of his are only now starting to bear fruit, like his investment in AI research and nano and biotechnology, which he knew would take many years to pay off.
@@squamish4244 You forgot Clinton's NAFTA which crushed millions by sending their jobs overseas, Biden's 1994 crime bill which targeted the poor while the rich escaped the law, the Republican congress balanced the budget and left a surplus, Clinton's deregulations of wall street led to the Great Financial Crisis. Both parties serve the asset class and super wealthy.
He’s just a walking fool, I have no idea how he’s gotten the roles he has. Like a talking head paid to dispute what every single person can see with their plain eyes
So correctly identifying the reason for inflation, and quickly addressing that reason, caused the inflation to deflate much sooner? I love Paul, and this convo, but that's kind of why we want adroit people to run our government. POTUS Joe has demonstrated an ability for that.
If you compare January 2020 to January 2024, the last four years, employment has grown , what, a bit over 100,000 net new jobs per month. I dont know the exact figure. And prices have grown about 20% and wages have grown about 20%. Wages have grown a little bit more than prices over the last four years, but not by alot. So there it is. THAT's why public opinion on the economy hasnt caught up yet, so to speak. Because the employment gains since Jan 2020 havent been any better than employment gains in the years before 2020. Unemployment was low four years ago and unemployment is low today. Real wages are slightly higher than four years ago, but only about 1 or 2% higher. And when wages and prices increase around 20% over four years, it doesnt FEEL like great progress. And the trauma of the pandemic. The deaths from the pandemic. We've been through alot. Now, from here on out, if wages continue rising faster than prices, and the pace accelerates, as does seem to be happening now, then yeah, more and more people will feel that.
Let me add: More specifically: Average nominal weekly earnings, that's the numbers on people's paychecks, has risen 20.818% from Jan 2020 to Jan 2024. Inflation, the CPI, has risen 19.715% over the last four years, from Jan 2020 to Jan 2024. Therefore, REAL average weekly wages have risen 1.103% over four years. If someone can find exactly the employment numbers , that'd be great. Unemployment now vs then is roughly the same.
Now let’s examine WHY employment has had gains. It’s because the inflation has made it so people can’t sit on their arses anymore and still afford bags of fudge rounds on welfare. THAT’s the actual reason.
A genius professor..some times you are right..some times you are wrong.. comment from women in love*😂..hope Rubin dont reading in end you dont change..me either..you see we are the same..just iam with DTrump..not your joy.. economy one country its Not how stock market open or closed..teach them its wrong.. Inflation from your Keynes theory..its good.short term ..have a nice weekend thx
People dont like inflation? No, people don't like high prices. Those don't stop just because inflation comes down. Saying 'everyone got a raise' is just a flat out lie. Many lower wage blue collar jobs have adjusted but are still behind the curve on living wage comparison. Fix the wages before you expect people to be okay with the current state of the economy. Don't leave out rent, food, automobiles, fuel, health care, etc. They're still far higher than average working class people can afford. Thanks.
The Democrats need to get Petraeus or Clark for their candidate when the conventions rolls around. Biden has been a repeated failure on Ukraine. It’s not about the economy in this election.
Petraeus not only cooked the books to justify war for Cheney and his sock puppet….he also sold secrets. Since you’re so GungHo over war I suggest you go to Kyiv and volunteer. 😎👍
Imagine taking economic advice from a company that loses between 20 and 30 million every year. 🤔 I think it’s pretty clear…….INVERSE Krugman for the win. 😉👍
