I can't figure out if I like this Zeihan guy or not. He's obviously incredibly intelligent but he also always seems to speak with a sense of "knowing". Like he knows 100% for sure these things. That always is kind of a red flag to me.
His figures for force numbers in Iraq were what got me doubting a lot of his "knowledge". At the peak of the "surge" there were 170,000 US forced alone,not counting the forces of other nations.
He makes truthful or knowledgeable-sounding second-tier statements, like knowing names or events/dates. Combined with the utmost confidence you'd mentioned, he then links these statements into ridiculous assertions that have very little to do with reality or basic logic. But hey, it sounds good and people eat it up. I mean yeah, "Russia's about to invade NATO." LOL... Oh gevalt. This guy's a total hack. A very skillful purveyor of utter bullshit.
I take his voice as opinion. However he at least does some background research with his opinion. So it’s opinion with logic backed by some data but without a team to look at other angles and probabilities. for me he condenses some data but is like looking for information in Wikipedia - you use it as a starting point but you would not include it in a report as a reference.
I'd never seen Peter Ziehan until recently. I've been mainly reading and following Mark Blyth the political-economist from Brown U. Peter seems to cover a lot of the same stuff but from the perspective of someone who's concerned about the demographics and how that affects the political landscape while Mark looks at the interactions between economics and the political landscape. Interesting they both have almost the same assessment of Bitcoin and Crypto in general. But I will say this (as I am an engineer) they get their engineering wrong at times, but its mainly in details only an engineer will pick up. I sort of doubted the population of those countries Putin wants control of. They weren't quite right its NOT 300 million its just under 270 million.
i also just started watching this video, but wont happen cuz dud will need to contradict half of stuff he said there as 100% fact lol He bullshited over 50% of what he said in this kind of videos Russia and Russian ppl are fucked up for decades cuz of this war.. there is no way around that, dude overshootted a lot of stuff also
I’m watching this 12 months later and Russia is mired in a war that they are on the edge of loosing. I haven’t checked for an update on this but I’m going to.
He’s about 50% right about any and all details about Russian life internally . I grew up in the Soviet Union in the 1980s . One big correction on education : you tested out of high school on your major passport exam if you didn’t do well you qualified for a technical school if you did very well you got the red passport and got to go to a university and science , if your family was connected you got to go to a political major focus to be a party member or of some sort. If you dropped out there was vocational stuff like military , forest service , border etc .
LOL... "this is probably wild speculation".... and that yankee "expert" is talking about education in Russia?!?!?! LMAO best look at the dumbing down in murica.... Meanwhile, back in the real world, most of the world is dumping the dollar and Russia now has NO dollar "assets" ... Well with sanctions to the left, embargoes to the right and blaming everyone else for their criminally insane ponzi economies and military messes... oops, make that "spreading freedumb and demonocracy"... don't these nato creeps and their bitch slapped stooges realize that all their pathetic puerile tantrums do is show just how fracked up, broke and desperate the "united" states of murica and king-CONNED-om really are?
Me too. I have the feeling that like... "why isn't this the lens we see things through anywhere else? Why is this guy not all over the news? It makes so much more sense!" but then I have to be like... where's the counter narrative to this? Just in case I'm missing something.
@@MobiusCoin He's good. But he's affected and speaks at hypersonic speed. Might be more well known if he bothered to enunciate. Plus with Scott Ritter commenting every day, Zeihan doesn't stand a chance with what's really happening on the ground in Ukraine. Zeihan seems to be relying on Western media. (Who knows, I'm no expert). I watch The Duran. You may want to check it out Mobius.
Zeihan knows a lot of stuff. At least it seems so. That's what you need in order to have enough "dots" to connect in a meaningful way. What he says about demographics, geography, economics, the history of Russia, etc., makes sense. At least to me, but then I don't know a lot of stuff. Anyway, it's fascinating to listen to. Maybe what he's been saying about Russia, China, etc. is on the mark. In any case, we'll know within a decade whether or not his predictions are accurate. Good podcast by Jordan Harbinger. Thumbs up!
This is one of the most intelligent conversations I have ever heard! Why I have never heard of Peter Zeitan. I must get his books. His ability to think analytically is mind-boggling.
43:00 Re: Taiwan. China invading will make Iwo Jima look like a cakewalk with attrition decimating Xi’s forces more than Putin’s folly. Plus, TMSL will never flourish under PRC control.
Great interview, great questions. I follow Peter quite closely so it's great to hear him get challenged from as many angles as possible in order to get more idea about how he grounds his arguments.
I agree I disagree they use nuclear weapons just because we confront them with the military or navy. Breaking the blockade is nessary prevent starvation and raising prices
@@JordanHarbingerShow Good that Peter was incorrect about the willingness of the West to help Ukraine with heavy weapons. It would be super cool if you could get Peter again to talk with him what he thinks will happen now. As the sit. he described didn't come exactly to pass like this.
@@Loki1191 When asked that question 11 years ago, he was pretty convinced that NATO would need to provide material support, if not direct boots on the ground. But he basically outlined what everyone is talking about now, 11 years ago.
Would like to have you get him back on your show for an update now that continued, unprecented strength in the Ukrainian forces and continued weakness in Russian forces has seemingly tipped the balance in Ukraine's favor.
You are missing a few things: Ukraine provides grain and oil (47% world markt share for sunflower oil) for a significant part of the world and does also have gas ressources that have been found in the last years. When the war is over then Ukraine can supply itself with gas instead receiving it from the remains of Russia and will also still be a supplier of food for the world. Additionally, when the country is rebuilt UA can get rid of some old legacy stuff in their infrastructure and may (!) become one of the most modern country. If I remember right then one reason why the us electricity system is crumbling compared to the european (especially austria and germany) system is that after WW2 that system was completely rebuilt while the US has old stuff and structures in use (not sure about that).
Ive been following Peter for years. No doubt hes smart but hes also very glib and not always right. Many have underestimated the Russians but time will tell. I suspect he would have predicted the Americans winning the Vietnam War back in the day.
People only want to hear what they want to believe. This was how Trump got elected, so there are at least 74 million clueless voters in the U.S.. I'm not giving liberals a pass, either: far too many know practically nothing about worldwide politics, geography, or economics. The U.S. educational system isn't designed to educate it's citizens; it's designed to make people into obedient, at least minimally competent workers for the corporations. That's why those important subjects aren't taught in public schools.
@@youtubeoppressivecensorshi8047 That's a fair point, he leans hard on the geographic determinism and demographic pyramids because they are true, irrefutable, and strongly support his conclusions. Other factors that I would like to see more clearly are business structures and where other soft / cultural factors matter.
Two underlying assumptions. 1. That anyone wants to invade Russia. 2. That Putin has the right to invade neighboring nations with impunity. What Putin has done is make Russia more vulnerable to the only nation on earth that looks at Russia with territorial longing and upon whom Putin has now made Russia economically dependent for discounted oil sales. Genius. Based on the incompetence of his recent decisions, this is the most perceptive appraisal of Xi, I've heard. "Catastrophic failure to perform across a whole system" Yes. In April, it was a reasonable assumption that "Russia will win no matter what." `in August it no longer has the same ring of certainty, although it probably remains the safer bet. I waited too long to write this but Peter Zeihan is someone who actually knows Russia and the dynamics of the world. I should know more about his work. The absolute best response I have ever heard to Professor John J. Mearsheimer's rant blaming NATO for Putin's delusions, "Utter unmitigated horse-shit." That statement came with an excellent explanation of why. Note: As of 8.14.22, the price of oil is falling toward Russia's inefficient production cost (given the discounts China & India are demanding). The best thing about the ruble is the party you throw for your friends before going to the airport to leave Russia. I know something about the things that Peter Zeihan was speaking about and at every turn the depth of his knowledge both in history and economic facts deepened the basis of my experience. Russia's military success in Ukraine seems more questionable today; that's partly because the sanctions on Russia cut much deeper than anyone would have imagined - especially Putin. Also, the small leakage of food to the Middle East, that Erdogan negotiated, may increase to make a significant difference... or not. That Sweden & Finland would apply for NATO membership, was probably inconceivable in April. Putin's Russia is collapsing before our eyes. The question remains, "Who is Vladimir Putin?" The answer to that question will determine whether Czar/mob-boss Putin, will chose to take life on earth down with him... or not. I can not shake a quote I remember from reading a report by one of the forensic psychiatrists who analyzed dead Hitler: "To the psychopath his own death is the end of the world." We'll see...jt This was a very instructive conversation. Thank you...jt
Chinese expert once claimed that HER country is ok with both Russia winning and losing this war. It will mean in the first case China gains a powerful ally and in the second that China gains a powerful vassal. This is political confucianism at best.
The reason it was so disastrous is because( I'm afraid ) it was never supposed to go hot. It's scary that Mr Putin was completely blindsided that Ukraine had prepared for a pitched battle in a fight to the death. The shock would become the price owing to the bloodless coup at Crimea. Because that's what this was supposed to look like. It was intended more as a protest that would require serious negotiations to get the soldiers to about face intact. Mr Putin was obviously poorly advised in the dossier profiling, who is Zelensky; and in his briefs on who rules Ukraine.
I am curious to know what Peter Zeihan's definition of a Russian "win" is with the passing of 122 days of war. Any thoughts? And comparing the death toll tolerance of a 1918 Russian citizen, considering how much information was available to them, to that of a present day citizen was a bit odd.
@@theselector4733 I would like to hear it. Sometimes people have a gap in their knowledge, or there is another interpretation that would also work given some hard evidence. From what I know of the situation, which is relatively limited, there simply aren't that many folks in Russia with an outward facing view of the world, with other language skills, specifically English language skills, who can bridge the information gap and get a view of what is happening from the Western side of this in our balkanized internet. While they may not believe the party line, it may be far enough away that they are not getting involved, kind of like how the average US citizen didn't really follow Afghanistan despite 20 years of "war." Mobilization changed things, obviously, but not enough to shift the outcome or the primary direction.
Anyone who thinks Putin wants to take on Europe is nuts. Or that the U.S. can ever defeat Russia is psychotic. The Russian economy is booming. The rouble is stronger now than when the war began. They have munitions and weapons factories working 24/7 while we have enough ammo to fight them for but ten days. America is oh-ver!
Yes. Also, Russia's loss of ten thousand men in Afghanistan helped to bring down the Soviet empire in the '80's. Now 'he who sh*ts himself' is looking at losing over 10 TIMES that IN ONE YEAR! Stay away from windows, Poopy pants!
I love Peter but he does have a script(s) and many ready answers. He is extremely difficult to trip up. The thing I like the most about Peter is that he will change his analysis once he absorbs and processes new evidence.
@@Cubcariboo yes, I've also noticed that...well, once you've written a book(s?) about it, it's understandable. I think that's exacerbated by the fact that there are multiple channels that have cut from his original presentation(s?) and posted videos on their respective channels. So when you wanna get a taste of what new stuff the man has to say you get the same thing and think to yourself hmm this sounds like the same thing again. But hey, that's just my two cents
Really interesting to re-analyse the points made in this programme after the benefit of nine months of hindsight. While Russia hasn't yet lost the war, the Ukrainians have nevertheless made unbelievable gains in the face of such a numerous and apparently massively armed foe. The only thing that defies belief is the indifference of the Germans to the Ukrainian lives expended to save European skins.
LOL... "this is probably wild speculation".... and that yankee "expert" is talking about education in Russia?!?!?! LMAO best look at the dumbing down in murica.... Meanwhile, back in the real world, most of the world is dumping the dollar and Russia now has NO dollar "assets" ... Well with sanctions to the left, embargoes to the right and blaming everyone else for their criminally insane ponzi economies and military messes... oops, make that "spreading freedumb and demonocracy"... don't these nato creeps and their bitch slapped stooges realize that all their pathetic puerile tantrums do is show just how fracked up, broke and desperate the "united" states of murica and king-CONNED-om really are?
He us just like a recording every interview us identical . This could be a factor very short video ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE-GgpHt1NXb5c.html
Uh, what? Ukraine has been backed by the US and the EU financially and militarily ($150B +) the whole time. Not sure why you think Ukraine is doing this on their own. lol holding their own. They'd have been done in a month without help.
@@JordanHarbingerShow Though the interview was having a lot of good points/info I didn't hear anything by Peter about my Nr. 1 question : What actually is the western strategy for the upcoming potential nuclear war - either in Ukraine or later with NATO ? Up to now I didn't really hear ANY CONVINCING Strategy yet - if there ever even is any.... Can you do a whole talk on that topic with him since that scenario looming on the near horizon is of enormous consequence for the whole world and there's no doubt in my mind that Putin IS willing to use nukes in Ukraine rather than to ever retreat, especially since that is about the only scenario where Putin actually still holds better trump cards than the west - even if it's just due to the fact that the west has almost infinitely more to lose than a 70y near end of life and probably even terminally ill Putin. Really would like to hear Peter's take on that topic....thanks in advance 😊👌
Peter is someone I follow avidly. Always thought provoking but does not mean I agree with his point of view entirely. Jordan as always has done his homework and draw out as much as he can from his guest. A must-follow channel/stream for me
If you're still clicking on legacy corporate media in 2022, you're probably not far from moving into a nursing home where someone else will just turn on a random channel and you can sit there and nap with your mouth open until meds time.
Propaganda, still brainwashing Americans that they will not suffer the consequences of any of their actions, including weaponising the dollar. You are telling the American public that nothing is going to happen to their dollar. Well I hope the BRIC countries succeed in creating a new currency so America can continue to print their dollar to feed their Military Industrial complex to bully, threaten, destroy and dominate the rest of the world for ever. The rest of the world is waking up to the fact they cannot trust America anymore. All America want is to keep up dominating the world until they become desperate and stupid to result in the use of Nuclear weapons as they did in Hiroshrima and Nakasaki in Japan. This time, Russia got nuclear, and no body is going to escape the fall out if America tried it again. Even some rich Americans who are building themselves underground bunkers can not live there forever. Let the world have peace, live, and let live America. God saves the world from greed and war mongering.
This is on par with a college course. I will be watching more and more of this channel, and I will buy "The Absent Superpower..." and start reading asap.
Are you kidding? It's peurile and dishonest. Try Douglas MacGregor. Anyone who thinks Putin wants to take on Europe is nuts. Or that the U.S. can ever defeat Russia is psychotic. The Russian economy is booming. The rouble is stronger now than when the war began. They have munitions and weapons factories working 24/7 while we have enough ammo to fight them for but ten days. America is oh-ver!
He certainly presents himself as such, and he does back it up with the knowledge of names and their holders' positions, but you can easily take apart practically every single one of his major assertions, which only sound plausible because they're linked together into a narrative by true (minor) statements. I mean, it's a rarity to hear an overarching narrative that's so ridiculously far removed from reality or basic logic. The man's a hack. A very successful and highly compensated one (because he pushes a story whoever pays him approves) but a total hack nonetheless.
An enormous misunderstanding: neutrality of countries in entral Europe is possible. It becomes impossible when external powers finance extremists and position biolabs and nuclear missiles
The vast majority of people in Central-Eastern Europe do not support "neutrality". Most people here support EU and NATO membership. Are most people here "extremists" then? Or maybe they just know what's better for their countries rather than someone who doesn't live here?
That podcast is a masterclass on the folly of trying to predict the future, no matter how smart you think you are,or how confidently you make your predictions.
Anyone who thinks Putin wants to take on Europe is nuts. Or that the U.S. can ever defeat Russia is psychotic. The Russian economy is booming. The rouble is stronger now than when the war began. They have munitions and weapons factories working 24/7 while we have enough ammo to fight them for but ten days. America is oh-ver!
Just because a Russian head of state security desires to secure 9 regions historically suceptible to invasion does not mean a people with the GDP of Belgium can expand to the historic boundaries of Catherine the Great against unwilling opponents. Recent weaknesses displayed by the significant Russian invasion forces in Ukraine demonstrate that Russia would have a hard time in a limited conventional war with even only regional NATO powers on location now . Russian conventional forces would likely be destroyed rapidly like Iraqi forces were in the first Gulf War if facing a NATO opponent.
They spend disproportionately on military equipment that would normally be spent on domestic programs and infrastructure. Russia has always been weak in those areas, and then expands and contracts in those spaces based on blowing their resources on military, which then causes internal political-economic collapse inward. After each collapse, they rebuild the military and then go take back those places at great loss, hold them for a while at great financial and resource costs, then collapse again. This has been true despite Czars, Soviets, or Kleptocrats. We're just watching the latest expansion campaign.
@@LRRPFco52 If you are an indefensible flat fertile plane that is regularly & easily overrun & impregnated by every neighbor with a population explosion, you develop into a different people (lower in Maslow's hierarchy) than if you are smug, safe, orderly and fat (and regularly lament your individuation struggle to your Jungian therapist). Siciliy is another region that has an unusual hidden culture of protection. To some degree Stroudsburg/Straussburg and the Alta Addigio/Lower Tyrol have unique local self- protection schemes. When you've been subjugated by cruel barbaric overlords like the Mongols for 5 generations you learn a few nasty habits & tricks. Seems both human and inevitable. Are we going to accept and work with them or keep sending disrupting democracy evangelists who present ideas of chaos & disorder, when they crave self-determination, safety, food and defensible borders above all? And how different does the US military actually look to them from any other poised Mongol, Turk, Goth, French, German, communist, Prussian, Swede, Khan, Hun, Slav, Viking, Arab, Iranian, Kurd, British, Hussar, Chinese, Japanese or Orc horde? Who me?
Wow these two really need to get a room! The mutual appreciation and ego massage is obscene to the point that if they themselves saw it to the same extent in two Russians they would warn them of one of the few tropes they didn't get to - that Putin has laws against that kind of thing. To go point by point through the whole feast of canards, stereotypes and Russophobic talking points of the liberal neocon merger that is contemporary US policy and rhetoric would be futile. Suffice to say it is the NATO hegemony that is going to collapse. And useless academics and bloggers are going to be at the bottom of the rubble pile.
Everything from this expert is so very suspect. It just does not add up. From this interview you just don't expect the most brilliant of outcomes for Russia that make US/NATO look so damn stupid in every way possible. 1. They anticipated their every next move and countered it effectively. 2. They expected the financial and other sanctions and countered it. 3. They have the coolest and best Diplomats on the planet for years and they used them effectively. 4. Their diplomacy keep US isolated from the global South comprising more than 80% of the planet's nations and they build up huge synergies between themselves , China and India that can handle any sanctions setback from turning into an Existential crisis for them. 5. They expected a Ruble decline in value but they brilliantly controlled it from collapsing and its strengthening beyond pre sanction levels. 6. There's very little the West can further coerce Russia with further. 6. They backed their currency with their huge gold reserves. 7. Everyone now just wants to buy Rubles. Ruble's future looks extremely bright due to economic confidence. Contrast with the Dollar that's simply dying as it's terminal ill and already dead in the water. Lastly all the sanctions seem to hit US and its partners even harder and Russia seem to draw so much courage and confidence now whilst the West is simply shutting in their collective pants in panicking. It's over . There wi be a Multipolar World Order that will decide USs future for her. No sir ... your just dead wrong. Russia and China has plotted the demise of the petrodollar scam and it was simply 100 achieved in record time. You said nothing about it because you have to mislead the public . For this reasons Russia was attacked in this proxy war US is fighting with Ukrainian lives offered up by US. RUSSIA is acknowledged to be the most efficient fighting force on the planet... ask Scott Ritter and Gen. Douglas McGregor and Gen Lawrence Wilkenson. What is your agenda. Who are you actually working for to get it so wrong?
Russia has a very small economy, about the size of Spain in terms of GDP. How can anyone expect that Russia would go into war with NATO or the US once they are done in Ukraine. Ridiculous expectation in my opinion.
My opinion exactly. How are they supposed to renew the huge Soviet arsenal, maintain and update the costly nuclear weapons and finance the far too large fleet? How to finance the infrastructure in this huge country. Nato enlargement has pushed it into a corner - now it is really dangerous.
Russia doesn't want to go to war with Europe. Its America that wants such a war. However if NATO invades Russia they will be taken out with tactical nukes. Its an existential issue for the Russians. As for demographic collapse just look at Germany, Italy, Britain etc. They only maintain their populations with third world migrant birthrates...and these people will not fight to defend Europe's civilisation.
Fear and anger makes us humans unable to listen and reason. When we believe we see others, we only see ourselves. Almost every word spoken by US government/thinktanks today, gives us a clear picture of what THEY are thinking/doing, but tells us nothing about the thinking/doing of russians.
@@ryansmith2844 Everyone who understood the game or had ever had dealings with the Russian military thought this would be over by now. The Ukrainians have surprised everyone, including themselves. The first sign of this not really playing out as expected was the day Zelensky turned down his ride out of there, and then stuck to his word. He's set a great example to his people, and they are smart and determined on top of that. We need to keep them in the game, its in our interests to do so.
@ryansmith2844 If you remove his timeframe, which in fairness he constantly says timeframe is the hardest part, everything else is bang on. Russia is now sending another 350k troops. And they have turned these cities to rubble. 🤷♂️
WTF. The land based ICBMs of both Russia and the US have an average travel time from launch to target of 30 minutes. Sub launched SLBM's can be as little as 2 to 5 minutes. Hyper sonics in atmosphere don't work well do to heat friction and vibration that literally rip/melt the launch vehicle to pieces. The reason the US shelved the project was due to material requirements and expense. It's a lot cheaper to use a Sub or a Bomber to launch strategic standoff weapons than it is to use a ridiculously expensive technology that you can't cheaply mass produce in high quality. Did these people even research their topics. I'm calling this video 2 talking heads BS propaganda.
The big deal for hypersonic weapons is its ability to strike a target and penetrate missile defence systems. A regular ICBM has a strong chance of being eliminated before it hits its target vs hypersonic which has and extremely high chance of hitting it target. He is right about it not being a big deal on normal missiles but with a nuke it's a legit threat and game changer. It's not as important for America to have Hypersonic weapons right now. It's way more import to be able to defend against a hypersonic nuclear missile.
@@prst99 I believe the thinking on it goes like this. If they can hit you before you can strike back you might not be around to send those nukes. Also it would allow them to wipe out our navel power due to the need to have 30 seconds to counter and incoming missile and I have read they can hit within 20 seconds. And then their missile defence system will have way less ICBMs to defend against. They could possibly win before a shot is fired back. Now this is if they start shooting hypersonic nukes.
@@aaroncouncil5126 from what I read about ICBMs, they are at hypersonic speeds on their descent phase. The difference from what you describe is the lead time is shortened from a hypersonic missile vs an ICBM. Are hypersonic nukes a tactical nuke or a strategic one?
Jim Sim... regarding fertilizer shortages . I regularly see huge areas of prime agricultural land bulldozed. Built on .covered in rubble .and worse waists of productive land vast acreage are buried . This is increasing the food shortage governments need to tighten up on destruction of farmland . Especially when food shortages are going to get worse ...
"The degree of policy failure we should expect to see out of China will be catastrophically entertaining." I got to admire his sense of humor in the face of pure horror that may come about from all of this.
@@nothril Why have that opinion? Are you motivated by creating hopelessness and pessimism for Americans or are you just misinformed? The US has another 1-2 presidential election cycles before the political realignment is resolved and our bickering will cease. America has always and was designed for a system that debates only after debate do we act. It has been successful so far and will be successful in the future. Every generation thinks their time is different and overestimates the odds of failure but it hasn't happened yet. I don't expect this time to be different. Like Peter said, when Sputnik was launced, a grapefruit that crashed down a week later while we had advantages in metallurgy, electronics and rocketry, we completely redesigned our education system. The US is best when there is a threat and we so thoroughly correct that we coast on that greatness for decades. Declinists be damned, bet on America.
@@nothril The rest of the world depends on the US for stability and prosperity. They view the US as a parent views a child stumbling around playing a sport. Ultimately they cheer us on even in the face of policy mistakes like figuring out how to give public healthcare to a country that has a larger population and larger geographic size than any other country with public healthcare. Nobody roots for China because they are a bigger North Korea, they flaunt the international order while threatening other countries for their gain while hurting every country they can whenever possible. The are no similarities between the US and China.
@@nbonasoro your public healtcare is a joke. Just as your leaders. And No land can depend on the us any longer, US needs europe, not the other way. Educate your self, and you Will be shocked. You must be a woke, to even think like you do.
Jordan, Very impressed with both your knowledge and deference. You should latch on to this guy and make this a recurring interview/update. I watch some RU-vid videos and think "I will never get that 73-minutes back". I feel like I gained a few years of life tonight. Excellent interview.
Good stuff. Minor automotive component quibble around 48:00, spark plugs aren't a component, value added or otherwise, of a "carburetor unit" but rather are a component of an ignition system in an internal combustion engine. Again, very minor, and geopolitical analysis and presentation in consumable way much appreciated
And based on the video evidence to date... those Ukrainian tractors have managed to steal quite a few of those sophisticated tanks. I guess sometimes it comes down to "who has the fuel to keep moving?".
You act as if many tank crews aren't blatantly leaving their tanks behind from low morale. One tank driver even ran over his own commander in a fit of rage.
@@rodiculous9464 EVEN BETTER! I mean really, what could be better than finding a "free tank" that only needed gas? Answer - A "free tank" that already has Russian guts smeared into the treads! One less for Ukrainians to have to hunt down.
10 months ago, I'm finally seeing this interview and Peter's analysis. How things have changed. He was surmising that all would remain the same It hasn't. NATO has stepped up and increased its military support. Next thing and close to it, fighter jets. Two schools of thought. Russia will do nothing, they've already threatened that with every upgrade, sophistication and superior equipment and support from NATO. Putin threatened. Or, Putin will do good on his threat of nuclear war. I don't think that he will do that either, he cannot imagine a world without Russia but more importantly, he cannot imagine a world without himself.
46:00 When I was working on some products here that bought microcontroller boards, programmed them, embedded them in a product, and sold them, the company that sold us those boards moved their manufacturing from Asia to Mexico. The products themselves were well made enough, but they kept missing steps in the process, some boards wouldn't have the calibration done properly, some boards wouldn't have the firmware loaded, etc. Hopefully they've improved that since then, because it was a major pain to do the calibrations ourselves. It's possible that it was just due to teething problems in the transition though and that they sorted it out, but moving supply chains around like that always have some issues in the transition.
I wonder if those companies could have provided better education and training for creating those boards but were more concerned with profits in the short term. It would benefit and U.S. and Mexico if business put in the effort to train and educate Mexicans. There would be fewer immigrants because the Mexicans could get jobs at home. But corporate and Republican greed...
Interview him again. It will be interesting to see how this perspective has evolved. Much will possibly be the same but time lines will adjust. And there may be some big shifts too. !! That’s for the material.
I think most people today are confused about the issue of hypersonics. They aren't developed to have a hypersonic ICBM capability - ICBMs are by definition hypersonic. They were developed to counter the U.S. carrier threat and to possibly deliver tactical nukes. Think of a very fast, very accurate cruise missile. Although they fly higher. But the main reason hypersonics in my opinion were developed is for propaganda. It is for internal consumption by the Russians and Chinese. Their populations don't understand that we had hypersonics in the 60's -- piloted hypersonics, for God's sake -- and that our grandfathers had figured this out. Our military isn't overly concerned about them for good reason.
So many factual errors that it's painful to hear. RF is not a multicultural empire. More than 80% of people living in RF are ethnically Russian. Alcoholism is going down in Russia year by year. If every 4th person there had TB, they wouldn't have the Army. Et cetera. What makes this interview unsettling is a complete lack of sympathy.
@@reviewgodusa9613 - sympathy for the Ukrainians who have been raped, tortured and slaughtered purely for Putin's political hard on. Sympathy for the Russian kids thrown onto the fire...
@@reviewgodusa9613 exactly. All these people are a complete abstraction. If anyone cared about the lives of Ukrainians nobody would've created controlled chaos by sending Nato instructors and weapons to Ukraine or supported a coup d'etat in 2014 in Kiev. If anyone cared for the Russian lives... I don't want to continue.
If he advises governments on geopolitics, that's dangerous. The things he picked on Russia or China can also be pinned on the US and Europe. Actually, the US and Europe are facing even more devastating demographic challenges. The value added stuff he talked about and also semiconductors are wrong or half truths.. In exports and imports, the US, Russia and China all rely only small percentages of their respective GDP on imports and exports. While Europe rely more than 50% of its GDP on imports and exports. At the end of the day, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that any major economy or country can suffer tremendously if the rest of the world gang up on it. Not because of internal issues. All countries have internal issues. Some are more than the others.
@MR. RICKLES FARTTENHOOS No. The university educated waged middle class are half the reason why we are in this mess, subsidised as they are by welfare. He is mostly wrong and the free market global capitalism that is on its way will finally make these people do a decent days work.
Good interview but Peter does this in EVERY interview. He omits the exact same challenges Russia is facing are ALSO the same challenges across Europe and China. All these countries have low birthrates, same challenges as Russia. The war has also shown how horribly unprepared ALL NATO members outside of America. Peter talks about how these countries bordering Russia pose a threat of invasion but omits that these countries have the same birthrate problems. There are no viable threats of invasion against Russia outside of potentially China but they have the same birthrate problems. It seems no one talks about this other aspect of the conflict. It's too one angle/topic focus ignoring the real picture of what's going on.
Zeihan isn't saying that he (Zeihan) thinks Estonia would invade Russia, he's saying that Russia thinks that Estonia would invade Russia, and so Russia thinks that Russia needs to capture Estonia to be safe. I agree (and I think Zeihan would as well) that nobody is actually thinking about invading Russia, but Russia is worried that other countries are planning to invade Russia. The thought of anyone invading may be a totally insane idea, but if Russian leaders believe it, then they'll act on it.
@@haxney I know NATO and many others continue to say that NATO is a defensive alliance, with no intention of threatening Russia. The fact is NATO was created to contain Russia via any means possible. What we seem to not understand or lack the ability to consider is HOW are our moves and positions going to be interpreted to the Russians? Our talking heads continue to say we don't care what Russia thinks and their opinion doesn't matter. Their security concerns don't matter. While that sounds great, it also leads us toward an armed conflict. Look at it from this perspective. How would America respond if Mexico inked a 100-year lease with China to establish a naval base on the Pacific and Gulf sides of Mexico along with an air force base and two army bases along the US-Mexican border? America would rightly be mad as hell and demand Mexico not do this. We'd threaten and do whatever we could and RIGHTLY so. That would be a threat to our country no matter the excuse Mexico and China gave us. That's the exact situation and perspective the Russians have about NATO and America pushing to have every country that connects with Russia become a member of NATO. Ultimately, the US should really do a full reevaluation of not just our NATO alliance commitment, but ALL of our security guarantees. We should be asking ourselves if as a nation, are we truly willing to send our soldiers off to fight and die for the security of Saudi Arabia? Portugal? EVERY country in Europe at this point? I'm not saying America should become an isolated place. I am saying as a country we should really evaluate how many countries we want our citizens to be committed to fighting for. Given how Ukraine has turned out. We should be looking at ways to kick Germany out of NATO and flat-out sanction them. Throughout this entire war, Germany has sent more than half a billion EUR daily to Russia for their energy. Germany has done more to support Russia during this war than all the nations combined have helped Ukraine. America and NATO - Germany-UK-Italy, haven't come close to matching the money these three countries have sent to Russia throughout the war. Money that is going right back into fighting the Ukrainians. Unfortunately, as long as countries like Germany, Italy, and the UK are allowed to get away with this they'll never change their ways. They'll give nice fluffy speeches, but in the end they are just biding their time until this wraps up and they can go back to business as usual.
@@haxney That is just an excuse for aggression. The real reason for any Russian invasion is economic. You gain the resources of those who you invade. Look at how Russia is looting Ukraine even as I type this.
For twenty years Putin has said the same thing - 1. Russia has been a European power for four hundred years and should be respected. 2. NATO is set upon aggressively expanding to Russias borders. 3. Russia will resist NATO expansion. 4. Russian interests, and ethnic Russian populations, will be respected or Russia will act. So guess what? Ukraines current leaders, with our approval, tossed out a leader who dared have a policy leaning pro Russian. Russia stepped in, grabbed the industrial heartland of Ukraine and entered the Minsk accords. Ukraine continued aggressive acts against Russian populations. Russia smashed Ukraine. Our policies have been aggressive, we have ignored the consistent statements of Putin, we have supported a war Ukraine cant win. So Russia will have their victory, they will dictate a peace and they will have the territories they claim.
Interesting point of view.I would like to have him (Peter Zeihan) discussing this topics with Noam Chomsky, John Mearsheimer and others, who having a different opinion about this bloody conflict.
Interesting discussion but all have been deeply wrong about recent events. It is almost a year now and Ukraine is surviving. Chomsky is sometimes interesting but his anti-US bias hinders his ability to go into just how bent on aggression leaders of other nations can be. Mearsheimer has increasing drifted into an being a Putin apologist after writing that Ukraine should not give up its nukes.
Two things: Most but those are also considered losers and he didn't get a chance to really touch on them, and then the ones which are exempt are the old imperial powers of Britain, France, and Sweden who have mostly stable demographics while also being incredibly wealthy and high on the value added chain with options for what's next.
PLEASE have Peter back on the show to update this, now that a long war, in Ukraine and funded/supplies by the West, seems likely. Or, does anyone know where Peter talks/writes regularly?
Very good interview thusfar. Like the insights. With my layman eyes this war is about resources. Ukraine has a lot of the same resources Russia has. Food, metals and energy. Control those and you have a firm grip over Europe. Maybe even more than any 'buffer country'. Even a long, stalled war will achieve these goals with 'minimal' effort as many of these resources were not yet being exploited. Ongoing war might also create a resource one might not directly think of. A stream of refugees (or downright captives) going to the east to rejuvenate the aging Russian population. My take on it. Replying halfway in, so I might just repeat some stuff.
@@gauloiseguy it is most certainly not voluntary, nor will it ever be and quite frankly Russia would be mad to import 1000s of extremely angry and vengeful people to live in Russia that’s many thousand terrorist missions just waiting to happen.
@@gauloiseguy yes but you are talking of them as a resource, I understand you mean a possible reason for the invasion, though given the hatred the Russians have sown that will backfire tremendously. I have heard a much better one, which I shall get into. As a resource unwilling refugees would be nothing but a problem for Russia. However; The thing is Putin is so isolated, he actually thought that Ukrainians would be welcoming him. As you no doubt have heard he has sacked and imprisoned 150 of his FSB previously very trusted cadre. Some of them have gone to the very worst prisons in Russia. Something absolutely devastating was committed by these men. This is unlikely to ever be officially confirmed because Putin would loose so much face, however , rumour has it is that these 150 stole billions of pounds by saying that they were running resistance groups to the Ukrainian government supply them with weapons and sowing discord , so that when Putin invaded, he thought there were large resistance groups of Ukrainians who would welcome the troops with open arms and throw flowers at them . ( Haven’t we heard that all along) Hence when they sent in the paratroopers to the airport on that first night very poorly supported, so much so that the casualty rate amongst the Russian paratroops was appalling, that was because he had been told that there would be armed resistance Ukrainian fighter who would fight with them. It makes sense of why on earth he committed to the invasion ? Any sane person could have told him , don’t do it it will be a bloody disaster and you will not “ win” even if you manage to defeat the Ukrainians with overwhelming numbers, you will never hold the country and it will be a long drown out war like Afghanistan whereby you will loose and have to watch the body bags piling up. If he was paying out billions as he thought to soften the Ukrainian population to welcome Russians and giving them weapons to overturn the Ukrainian army, he thought it would be a 3 day war with a victory parade in Kiev with the dress uniforms that many of the soldiers were told to pack. It explains why he invaded , why as a possible resource he maybe did look to young Ukrainians. However that the problem with being a dictator, you get completely removed from reality, only heard what you want to hear and are very susceptible to people running scams against you. As a rumour it really does explain his disastrous decision and maybe one day we will get it confirmed , but as a rumour it explains a lot.
I disagree, this is. Different time, and a different Russia! I don’t think Russia can sustain the losses it incrued imduring World War Two. Not to mention, the Russian oligarchs are speaking about a possible mutiny. Putin is at a weak state, I don’t see no win in the horizon!
The world needs a strong Russia. If that doesn't exist, look to China taking it over all the way to Hungary. That combination of population and resources would construct a new world hegemony. Or Poland or any of dozens of smaller ethnic groups would look to expand. Look at the Russian Civil War after the Bolsheviks took power to see all the things that could happen.
It’s already happening. Chinese citizens in Siberia are already buying up supplies of food. Likely Siberia and Mongolia will be annexed by China in the next decade. Japan is likely to regain their northern islands and maybe even take the rest of the kurils. The US might even take the Arctic portion of east Siberia.
