Pilot Shortage and Hiring Freeze Update - March 2024 

Hi Trent, I’m currently at flight school in AZ but I used to work for Southwest Airlines. My co-worker there is the main hiring person for FOs. She was telling me just last month that the main reason for the hiring freeze is that SWA didn’t get all of the Boeing 737s that they ordered. Since they didn’t get the new planes they can’t expand their routes like they planned so they are slowing their hiring. I’m personally not worried about there being jobs in the near future. Aging out pilots and new planes being delivered will enable the airlines to continue hiring in the near future.

Thank you for doing the deep dive to give us all of the analytics and calm our worries! Really great info!🙌🏻💯

Great video Trent! Thank you for the update. Thanks for acknowledging the shortage of technicians as well. It is something that is ignored in the media but a very real problem. I am currently at a service center with the airplane I manage, and though they have the manpower, they lack the experience, efficiency, and speed to perform maintenance at the highest level.

Thanks for sharing Trent. This has been top of mind the last few weeks and I appreciate the data you shared. Hope to see you at Sun n Fun!

Thanks for the channel Trent. Keep the content flowing, your video's are great! Greetings from South Africa.

Once again thanks for keeping us updated trent l have been following since the beginning can't wait for the next video

Thank you Trent for doing all this research in order to create this very informative video! I’m grinding away for my PP Cert and will keep going!! 👏👏👏

Love your videos and this one directly addressed some of the question I had in my mind. Thank you Trent and keep it up.

T, you’re doing your thing bro! Much love and happy flying good brother!

Great information, as always, especially for us 2.0 pilots working through the schools and hours! Thanks for taking the time to get the real deal and not just leaving us out here reading Reddit and other forums thinking the worst is happening. Plus, I think we all have to be realistic and understand that this industry has it's up and downs (pun intended) and that hiring goes in spurts. The opportunities will be there for us, just maybe not as fast as we originally would have hoped.

excellent info Trent, you always give us the best analysis!!!

Thx Trent for the information and research on this topic. Take care!

Thank you for the research done and video! Appreciate it :)

Thank you, Trent!

I'm pretty active on the ATP Flight School forums. A number of ATP graduates who are at the airlines with advice and inside knowledge. I got a little bummed after watching Big Ern's last video showing him doing the last interviews of 2024 for Southwest. But I'm still starting my PPL training. Love flying and never know what the landscape will look like in two to three years when I'm knocking on the door of 1500 hours. I'm 37 in October, so I have to get hopping...I mean flying.

Great information. Thank you!

Thanks for the update. Makes a lot of sense when you look at everything involved and the effects short and long term.

Thanks for the research and sharing it with us Trent =)

Hey Trent, as always great informative video and I'd like to thank you for the motivation boost you giving to me as a career 2.0 at 36yo cant wait to materialize this dream and give a better life to my family.

Great info. Thanks Trent!

Trent thank you for the information! I will share this video with my other pilot friends..i had a CJO with gojet for june of this year and it got pushed to june 2025!! But let hang in there our time will come!

Very helpful information, thanks for the insight!

What the beautiful video! You are an aviation legend! Proudly following you bro!! Also can be a good idea to attend Skywest recruitment events since they have a lot in different locations! Alex

Thanks Trent for this detailed information on the current situation. Will look for you at Sun n Fun. 👍🏼

Great video and good insights keep it up!

As always, great content! Whatever happened to the AME video idea?

These videos you make are awesome

Very nice and well layered out.

Hi, Trent. I definitely think this is informative and useful. I was supposed to start with SWA and the process was canceled because of the Boeing contracts falling through. Base and route expansions have made a huge dip in hiring that will, eventually, level out.

Love your content Trent, Alot of good info, im 20 hrs into my training, done with the written and studying for oral. I work in refinary at the moment and want to become a pilot, Corporate or Airline🙏

Great video! Great content.

Hey Trent, I think they were referring to Captains when CA is used in the forums and not Check Airmen. I’ve always seen Check airmen abbreviated as LCA for line check airmen. Great video though! Super informative!!!

I had a great conversation with a NetJets captain the other day that basically said don’t worry about any of the slow down. He did say if I could get turbine time as part of my 1500 ATP mins that would be a huge leg up so I’m trying to find out how to get that vs burning holes in the sky in a piston single. Great content as always. Thanks for the deep dive.

Correction at 6:50 - Trent said “Boeing calls for increase of 602k pilots, of which 435k will be in North America.” The 602k is not net additional pilots needed over todays pilot population, but rather how many need to be hired over next 20 years to account for pilots who retire/quit the career and increase in flight demand. Also the 435k is for pilots, flight attendants and technicians (all included in the pie chart) not just pilots, which looks to be ~ 30% of that 435k (call it 140-150k).

Maybe I’ll see you at SnF, thanks for the great videos!

Wish I could give 5 thumbs up, thank you for your channel, it keeps me inspired while I save for training.

Your second point is the main reason there is a hiring freeze on new 1500 hour pilots. The regionals have been one of the main pipelines for young pilots getting their first “real” jobs. The majors raided the experienced captains out of the regionals which has left all the regionals short on training captains. This has caused regionals (e.g. Republic)to propose new and somewhat draconian contracts to new pilots coming in. The new contracts are aimed at locking up pilots once they become captains. In the long term pilot shortage should continue for quite a while. Great content. Love the career 2.0 journey.

Hi Trent, I'm a 54 year old private pilot who is not looking for an airline 2.0 career but would like to pursue an aviation 2.0 career after I retire. I rarely comment on videos but was moved to for your excellent analysis in this video. There are lots of opinions out there today but few people go to the trouble to do all the leg work and cite sources for the basis of their analysis. Great job and great video! Thanks!

Awesome! Still creating my 2 year plan to start, but this i formation is SUPER VALUABLE

I wanted to go to sun n fun this year but I have a new job with no vacation time yet. I am finally saving enough to start flight training again. First on my list after renewing my medical, is to pay a CFI to help me knock the rust off and rebuild good habits. Then, start on my instrument rating. I’ve been studying the ground school for instrument but unlike you, I don’t learn quickly so I’ve been studying a while. I plan to take the written before I start my IFR.

Great video! I heard from my DPE and I've been doing some research on Auto-landing and the possibility of airlines switching to single-pilot aircraft with the robots doing most of the work-- airbus seems to be leading the way with this. It would be awesome if you could do a video on that sometime!

Well, this could be the hiccup that turns into a tester. Good luck and keep going!

As a pilot stuck at a regional in the lost decade i decided to go into the training department at the airline. I've been doing it since 2013 and have trained many a 2.0 pilot as you call it. perfect name BTW. I have stayed with the training department as a quality of life deal. If you have the time you should be able to get in somewhere, hopefully wherever you would like but just never count on it. Just so you know you will have some advantages over the kids now finally coming through but you will also have some disadvantages. both in training and trying to get hired. I've trained everything from retired admirals, cops and even a John Deere engineer, so it definitely can be done. Best of luck and if I can help let me know. P.S. Just a warning. It's not a part time job, but a lifestyle. Just be prepared for that too.

Hello Trent, I am a current E1 75 captain, and I wanted to say that I really appreciate the work you put into your videos. I’ve been in the industry for 25 years having done airport operations and atc control as well. It would be cool to chat sometime if you are interested. I’m sort of career 3.0 and a certain sense. But I’ve been in aviation my whole adult life, just not as a pilot the entire time.

I like your perspective on "Being older dudes".... I feel it is correct. We have life experience, and we project a feeling of confidence. While my channel is game repair... my day job is an operational consultant. a 20-somthing person could be trained on what needs done... but won't be taken as seriously as when a 40 to 50 year old person walks into a conference room. Also... I was also figuring it was more of a bottleneck issue, rather than an actual freeze. FYI... I should be done with my IR in the next couple weeks, and onto commercial.

Thanks Trent As a 51yr old with minimum flight time requirements (1500hrs)and an option to retire from current non aviation field with a pension you are doing a lot of the leg work I need to make a decision to jump to career 2.0. as an airline pilot. Keep the content coming. Thanks in advance

Hi Trent, I firstly appreciate your effort by sharing your journey to become a pilot. You gave me hope that I could do it also. Now, I've try to search for the First Class Medical Certificate procedure on RU-vid but have not found any. Have you done your first class? Would you be able to share your experience about what required to pass Class 1 Medical Certificate?? Many thanks

Hey Trent, it’s me Keilyn I want to thank you again thank you again for making this video putting the insight. I want to add something to help people stand out and I’m not trying to promote this or anything. It’s just what I’m seeing and talking to people that are in the organization I am in of getting hired on by the airlines, so if you’re if you decide to fly for the civil air patrol, basically the auxiliary Air Force and as a pilot and you have, basically no failures and you have a lot of great letters of recommendation from squadron, commanders, wing, commanders, and stuff like that. I have heard this is just from what I have heard from other people that flies for the airlines, and that are part of CAP. The airlines will basically look at you and snatch you up in a heartbeat. This is what I take a grain of salt, but that’s another way to if people want to stand out. I wanna add to that because you did say how to stand out when, getting higher by the airlines so just want to share that

Another GREAT video with good details and fact . Im confident that with my experience of 1100 TT , 345 ME inclusion turbine and jet , even though I have not flown in years , as soon as Im current I will find a lot of opportunities in the corporate market at an age of 58

Trent you are correct, the sky isn't falling and hiring will continue. Delta, for instance, will hire half of number of pilots in 2024 than were hired in 2023. Which will still be 1,000 pilots, which in historical hiring numbers is A LOT! We just got through two solid years of hiring demand like this industry hasn't seen well before my 23 years as an airline pilot. 2020 was THE year us in the industry have been hearing would happen for the past couple decades. Then the pandemic hiring freeze for a year and a half coupled with early retirements. Then two years of hiring I can describe only as insane. Now just a "normal" very robust hiring demand for the foreseeable future. How long is anyone's guess. The current shortage news we've been getting in the various forms of media is most definitely in Captains at regionals. All other demand is manageable with the rate of pilot supply. Not to worry to both V1.0 and V2.0 pilots, this hiring cycle is far from over in my humble opinion. Simply won't (never say never) be like it has been compared to 2022 and 2023. Still a fantastic time to get into aviation. Wages and demand will continue to drive the supply.

I work at an MRO shop that overhauls landing gears for jets and military jets and we have issues finding people willing to work and obtain parts for these overhauls. A lot of manufactures are refusing to make parts due to quality parts ..

What's interesting in all of this is that, in spite of headlines, I continue to see advertisements for Southwest's Destination 225 program and United's Aviate. To me this implies that, while there may be a current slowdown / pause in hiring, the airlines still see a need to continue recruiting. As you pointed out, Trent, the whole situation is far more nuanced than headlines.

thanks Trent! I need to get my ass in gear! Stop by My A&P school at the sun -n- fun campus by the DC3!

Hey Trent do you think for someone who still wants to get into flying it is still a good career? I was looking into working for cargo. I haven't been able to apply for flight school because I had to wait to be cleared for my medical license.

Hey Trent, I could be wrong but my understanding of the term "CA" is Captain and not Check Airman. Regionals have a HUGE shortage of Captains because the majors started hiring FOs before they became CAs at the regionals, limiting the CA pool.

Thanks for another great video! I am a 2.0 pilot and hope to fly turbines in some capacity for the last 15 years of my working career. I am currently still working a 40 hour a week job and doing independent flight instruction on the side. I am getting about 6-8 hours a week and should have 1200 hours in the next 6-8 months. I enjoy your content. It keeps me hopeful that my dream is still alive!

Keep the great info coming Trent. Much appreciated🫡

I definitely agree that Career 2.0 folks have the "experience" card to use as an advantage. Unfortunately, I think the counter to that is everything (especially with corporations) comes down to money and the bottom line. It'll be much cheaper to higher Career 1.0's because of that same fact (that they don't have that extra experience and background, which demands higher pay). And when you're having to fill a lot of spaces, corps are much more likely to go with the cheaper route because they can fill more positions for the same (or lower) cost.

Airlines have always been cyclical in hiring, we have recently seen a huge surge post COVID. Many pilots retired early due to COVID, realising that they enjoyed a change of lifestyle and didn’t need to continue. If you want to be a pilot, and have the drive and ambition to do it, do it because it’s in your blood. Don’t do it because of the money and perceived payout, because you may well find it’s not what you think.

Airlines are doing a great job of packing people in like sardines and canceling flights. Getting to a point now where I consider driving over flying.

Thanks for your insight. However, you haven’t mentioned JetBlue/Spirit issue and that spirit might go under which could overflow the market.

I asked a prospective flight school about a month ago about the hiring freeze and if the 5 year pilot shortage was over after just 2. i also asked if at 50 yrs old i should even i even waste my time now and end up with a huge student loan over my head if no one is going to hire me. Have yet to hear a response so i am really starting to wonder should i even bother. my dream is to fly for a career so i would like to go for it. On the other hand i have to make sure i do not saddle myself with a debt that i can not pay and i can not use. that would be stupid,. then i watch Trent;s video and i am still going to go after it. espeically the part where skywest says they will be hiring for years.

A friend of mine is waiting on a class date at PSA, he was told they have a lack of Captains and they are training them now so they are not training new FO right now.

On the brightside, the slowdown at the majors means regional FOs, Captains and check airmen will jump ship at lower rates, allowing FO hiring and training to pick up again. That said, the days of ATP direct to Spirit or 1 year at a regional to Southwest are probably gone for good.

I'm planning on buying a plane to build hours after I get my private license... Problem is out here in Iowa DPEs are really hard to come by and I've been having horrible luck with weather. I've been ready since mid-Feb to get checked out, but every checkride has been met with a random day of poor conditions. Now I'm scheduled again on the 25th, but it's already looking like bad weather. The last thing I want to do is fall another month behind. Does anyone know if there's anything I can do to talk DPEs into a shorter reschedule time than 3 weeks or am I purely at the mercy of luck with weather?

Hey Trent, I would be curious to see what your thoughts on how sustainable this higher pilot pay is going to be in the future. And your reasons as to why.

At DL alone we have on average 500 retirements for the next 20 years. Of the big 3 we have the least amount of retirements. While we’re not gonna hire 2.4k pilots in a year like we did from 21-23 500-1000 pilots a year for retirements and growth is still exponential compared to historical averages.

Can you do a video on pilot cadet programs I almost have my commercial rating and I don’t know who to apply for. Thx

normally the manning level per airplane for the airlines are between 5 and 6 crews. So 100 airplanes for the 737 equals a minimum of 1000 pilots. The wide body international flying uses 3 to 4 pilots per plane so obviously more for that type of flying per plane. check airmen are used to train new captains, new pilots and pilots switching airplanes in either seat...normally it is 25 hours of training per seat in the airplane (IOE initial operating experience)...check airmen are FAA designees so they also do line checks which are required every 12 months for each pilot, also route checks for captains for designated airports.

Will the planes parked because of Prat and twitney engine part supply problems play a role at all in the slowdown?

Trent as one of your early subscribers. I too will be at Sun N Fun haven’t been since 98

Two years ago I looked at doing a pilot 2.0 career switch as part of a life reassessment and orientation toward a long-held dream. I actually took some Cessna classes and got into the FAA material. I loved it and honestly could have dove into it completely, giving up a significant amount of income to become a commercial pilot. But trying to get 1500 hours, boring holes in the sky at $150/hr, the hit to my family in time, income, and investment just wasn't worth it.

hey I go to vaughn collage and they have train students to be pilots so yes there are some hold ups

I agree with alot of what you said. Also with it being an election year.... the same with construction and oil industry depending on who gets elected will depend on their growth outlooks. Hoping for that economy grower which will bring back the hiring. In addition to boeing, and airbus neo issues. I give it 2 years and it should be stabalized. Id also like to add we are in a recession whether this administration wants to admit it or not

CA is Captain, not Check Airman. So the shortage is Captains. If you don’t have captains, you can’t use more first officers.

Trent, if you can catch up with Carl Valeri at Sun n Fun that would be greatly appreciated. If possible please do a podcast with him on his journey as well. He runs another podcast - Aviation Career Podcast and is a A320 instructor at a major.

Trent. Do you have any advice. A New Zealand Airline Pilot. My Dream one day to work in the US? However only Australians currently are approved for the E2 Visa! Any idea on how to get into the US aviation sector?

Hello Trent, I'm 53(pushing 54) and about to take my discovery flight. Like many, flying has been in the back of my mind sense high school and Top Gun. My anticipated goal is to be a commercial pilot and then see where the 2.0 career can take me . The local flight school(Part 61) advertises between 12-24 months to obtain PPL, IFR, Commercial, CFI, CFI-I, and MEI for around $75k. That is a pretty hefty commitment. My financial situation isn't dire but I am not in a situation where I can commit full time training as I believe you have done. In other words, I'm going to have to keep my day job, LOL. I know it's just a guess, but is the timeline the school has set out realistic while still working my 40 hr /wk job, or am I looking at much longer to get to this 2.0 career? I hope you can give some insight or maybe even make a video on this topic. If you have already, or know of a channel that has, please point me in that direction? Thank you, JOHN

Good info, thanks 🤙

I graduate in May with a bachelors in finance. I’m considering the airline pilot route but do not want to take any loans out or anything. My plan is to work a year and save money then Pursue my airline dreams. Is putting everything on hold to save up 80k worth it or is getting in sooner with a loan smarter ?

Thanks for this information! Definitely putting some mind at ease for us 2.0ers.. hope to see you at the Sun and Fun. I am volunteering for NAFI on Tuesday please stop by and say Hi! Booth 82

I'm a private pilot attending AMT school. Even if I could get my commercial, instrument, multi, and class 2/1 this year, I'm still looking at retiring in ~10 years. Once I get the A&P I have zero desire to go 121/135. The industry is simply too unstable and prone to disruption, even more so than my current field (IT).

Aviation always been an attrition game. It's just favored now for you if you stick in it long enough to get the golden 1500 hours.

17:20 It would be cool if you did a podcast with Nik Fialka to discuss this. He has the "Ready 4 Pushback" podcast. I think your story of getting all of your ratings done in no time would resonate with his community. Also, he is a big proponent of volunteering at the recruiting events, which relates to the time stamp I placed.

So, to me the question(s) becomes: How are they are incentivizing Check Airman so as to keep the supply where it needs to be so that rookie FOs can come onboard? Additionally, how are they incentivizing FOs presently so as to upgrade them to Captains, thus making room for the new guard of hirable CFIs and turning them into FOs? And also, there seems to be a paradox (or at least it's not clear to me) re: the grounded aircraft. Namely, why are they grounded in the first place? If "grounded airplanes don't need pilots to fly them" then it seems valid that the people having trouble getting hired presently would be DELIGHTED to get the opportunity to solve for that. There's something unclear in the supply/demand relative to the grounded planes at the Regionals. Grounded planes = lost revenue (last I checked). So I'm curious what the Regionals are doing to get "unstuck" from that problem. Seems like hiring more pilots to get them off the ground would be a fine solution. And yet - there's a hiring freeze??? I welcome any/all thoughts on this as there's still just a few missing data points to sew it all together (at least for me)

Just got my private pilot as a 21 yo. Do I need to be quick or am I in a good spot?

I am far from an expert in the field, but I am wondering about the use of CA for Check Airmen. I was under the impression CA was referring to Captains, similar to how FO represents First Officers. While both would be a concern, I believe the Major airlines poaching the more veteran Captains, and leaving only fresh Captains is the issue. Similar to how a brand new CFI may not be the most experienced, and best teacher, that is what leaving only brand new Captains would do to the Regional. They would not have the knowledge to train new FOs until they get experience themselves. With the Majors slowing/freezing hiring, this will allow the Regionals to train and refill their ranks of Captains, and then hopefully be ready for the coming needs due to attrition.

Let’s not forget about the FAAs oversight of United pretty much shutting down hiring for the interim. That’s their biggest hurdle at the moment.

As a guy that’s getting ready to hit ATP mins soon… I’m not worried in the least.

There are a lot of things putting pressure on hiring right now have nothing to do with the supply of new airplanes. The two biggest issues are a lack of captains at the regional level and the lack of training capacity throughout the industry. GoJet, for example recently announced that they won’t be hiring any more pilots for 2024 classes. This has been reported as no new hire classes in 2024. However my understanding is that their 2024 classes are all full so now they’re working on 2025 classes. The other thing to remember is that 2022 and 2023 were banner years for pilot hiring. That the hiring is slowing in 2024 doesn’t mean that the sky is falling, only that the airlines are trending back toward their normal hiring levels. That said, predictions for 2024 show that total pilot hiring this year will still be above historical norms. It just won’t be like the last two years. Remember that there was a time when you couldn’t even interview at a regional without 3000 hours and 1000 multi. The end is not here. Reality is just returning to normal, that’s all. The reasons are those discussed in this video as well as the captain shortage and simulator availability. If you’re a pilot approaching ATP minimums, don’t fret. Yes it will take longer too be hired than the previous couple of years, but the forecast is still pretty good.

I want to be a pilot but companies make it too damn expensive with no way to properly differentiate between who actually has an aptitude for it and for who doesnt!

When I was 18-20 I was going to school and receiving flight training. I ultimately decided against aviation as a career path because, at the time (2010-2012) pilots were treated like pure garbage. The pay did not at all justify the training costs and airlines viewed pilots as their property; as if they are mere paid slaves. It was actually ranked at the time by many sources as being among the top 5 most stressful careers. I guess others felt the same way and now the airlines are getting just what they've had coming. Good.

There's never been more opportunity in commercial aviation.

value bomb

Just watched your video and found it very interesting. However, the term, “Check Airman”, is no longer being used by the FAA. The new term is, “Check Pilot”. I know there’s going to be a lot of unhappy folks who will whine about being, “PC”, but get over it. The FAA is in the process of fixing up all of their terms in the regulations and handbooks.

Hey my súper Trent 🛫🇺🇸✌🏻 thank you.. I wasn't concerned, I have faith in the industry and our future in 2.0 legacy/ commercial aviation 🪽 ty so much as always and congratulations 👏🏻 on your hours accomplished ✌🏻

well, hardly anyone is hiring at the moment.

It still remains to say that the regionals will continue and always have an issue with keeping pilots until they pay these pilots an acceptable wage. Full stop. Mechanics are the same. Why stick around when the pay bump for a mechanic can be upwards of $30 more an hour plus amazing health insurance and flight benefits. Now even, companies are offering $10,000 hiring bonuses for certified mechanics.

At 6:57 you have an error in your data analysis. You mention that Boeing calls for 602K pilots, and 435K of them would come from the US. That 435K is total personnel, not just pilots. The US pilot number is 128K, not 435K.

I think you read your chart incorrectly. You said 602,000 pilots of which 435,000 are in N America. However, the 435,000 number is pilots, technicians and crew. Not only pilots.