Hello you savages. Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/ Here's the timestamps: 00:00 How Nate Mastered Sports Betting 04:01 Models Used to Predict Elections 08:03 The Way People Vote Today 11:02 Why Kamala Harris Isn’t Appearing on Podcasts 14:54 Do Debates Change People’s Minds? 17:22 The Impact of Running Mates 23:53 Have the Assassination Attempts Impacted the Election? 30:16 The States That Decide the Election 32:50 Likelihood of a Third-Party Candidate Being Elected 37:39 The Power of ‘the Village & the River’ 44:48 Nate’s Experiences With Sam Bankman-Fried 49:24 Why Crypto Investors Are More Likely to Be Scammed 56:29 Psychology of High Risk-Takers 1:01:54 The Price You Pay to Be Nate Silver 1:04:30 Nate’s Core Values 1:10:13 Where to Find Nate
How is Mate Silver a polling expert when he has never conducted polls? He’s a leftist advocate that gaslights the public into believing the left is doing better than they are. He overestimated the Left’s performance on THE LAST TWO PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS ON ALL 50 states. That’s statistically impossible.
This is a great example of how one can be highly intelligent and know all sorts of things about betting and statistical analysis but still hold personal biases that distorts the entire process.
As an immigrant and a GOP I’m tired of the narrative that we’re “anti immigration”. We’re anti “mass illegal immigration and not knowing anything about millions of people who are here”.
Alright. So if I said, “okay, so let’s beef up border security but lower the barrier of entry on the legal channels to immigration so that everyone who wants to come can come”, you’d agree with me. Right?
@@Csonka_Would_Run yeah that’s what I thought. So miss me when you say you’re against “illegal immigration”, you wouldn’t care one way or the other whether it’s legal or not, whether you knew about them or not, you’re just anti immigration.
@@OhWellWhatTheHell1what would "lowering the barriers" entail? Thats an insanely disingenuous question to ask with no further details provided, and you know it
@@OhWellWhatTheHell1so if we "lowered the barriers" to include not looking at any past criminal history, i assume you would be okay with it right? See how disingenuous questions work now?
Interesting that Silver thinks Vance isn't qualified to be selected as a vice presidential candidate because he only has 2 years of experience in the Senate, but Harris as a "capable politician" gained sufficient experience to be president after serving a whopping 4 years in the same institution, followed by another four years of "rubber chicken" dinners in political Siberia. The idea that Harris spent her vice-presidency flying around the world performing official duties is an incredible rewriting of history. The 50/50 split in the Senate forced her to stay in Washington as a potential tie breaker. When defending her lack of visits to the US border with Mexico, she responded to the question by saying she hadn't even been to Europe!
A lot of what this guy is saying makes no sense. The TV media doesn’t have a left tilt overall? And he is pro vaccine? At least qualify that with not sure about the Covid vaccine.
☝️ This podcast must have been filmed before the latest vice presidential debate is correct. As soon as it got to around 23 minutes and when he started talking about Vance not being a good pic I'm just like dude, watch the freaking debate and then come and tell me that
You are absolutely right. Let's not forget that she is more radical than Bernie Sanders and didn't get a single vote. She is running as an illegitimate candidate.
No dude. Its because she is a prosecuter campigned for obama etc. shes been in politics for like 30 years. the fact that you got this many likes on this comment is insane
I find it intriguing that I have no idea what you're implying. I have seen folks on both team Red and team Blue make statements like this! What's meant by it is a reflection of your worldview.
@@MichaelSmith-lr8cp That’s a fair statement, but I wonder, do you think both sides are logical? What I mean is, a serial killer might think he’s doing the right thing, but all normal people would disagree. To me, one side is obviously wrong in every way, only the people in their cult would disagree. If you had to guess, which team do you think I’m on?
@@mikelitten7489 I asked my daughter’s boyfriend if he’s voting. He said yeah there’s clearly only one choice. I think I know who he meant but I’m not positive. And that is fine with me.
Nate Silver has consistently reported incorrect polling until right before elections happen. You should have Richard Baris on. He has been the most accurate pollster for the last three cycles.
I always thought he is clever, well informed, and competent. He has no idea what he is talking about. Casually mentioned that one of the most corrupt, neocon warprofiteers will be a good VP pick. GTFO.
I support Kamala, and I actually agree. When asked about the Rittenhouse verdict, Biden said that we should respect the court outcome and trust the process. Kamal, as a former prosecutor, promoted the idea that Rittenhouse should have been found guilty because he's white by saying that we had more work to make towards equal justice. She says things like this all of the time. I used to aay that she was to Biden what Sara Palin was to John McCain. I thought it was disastrous when Biden stepped down. Having said that, she came out in front of the Israel issue quick, and seems to make decisions based on her advisors. I'm convinced that she doesn't act as impulsively as she speaks.
@@Agimus_AGO56Tim Walz is Sarah Palin. Comes off nice but kinda goofy, but I don't trust them to be president when the chips are down and everything goes to crap. Kamala has no discernable guiding principles. She's changed her position on every major issue based upon whatever is politically expedient for her. She's held nearly every drastically radical position at one point, yet has more flip flops than a water park locker room.
@@M98747 Well, I was referring to Kamala and Biden. I thought her opinions were so far left that it made Biden seem extreme, like Palin did with McCain. It is goofy, and a little far fetched, sure. She does say dumb things. I completely agree, but when she acts she does so in a calculated matter, and seems to listen to her advisers. During the debate, she made it clear that commander in chief was the most important role of the president and displayed a very good understanding of our national interests. Also, as an Army veteran who served under Biden, Trump, and Obama, I think Biden was an amazing commander in chief, and his support for her means a lot to me. Also, since she served under him, there couldn't be better training, in my mind. Trump is more likely to take advice from Putin, and ignore our own generals, who can't stand him. I don't get how people can back a man who deals with terrorists who butchered our troops, like when he made a deal with the Taliban. I wasn't going to back Haris, but when I heard Vance attack Walz over his service, I donated to the Haris campaign within a minute. Vance has no dignity or credibility. He said much worse about Trump than he has about kamala or anyone else. What does that say about his integrity or judgement? He's a sellout. That's the only answer to that mystery. Trump and Vance are both jokes.
I work with a LOT of very liberal people. They are quite vocal and don't hesitate to say what they think. I have NEVER heard anyone say they thought the media was biased against Democrats. Is he trying to push a narrative, thinking that if he says it we'll believe it?
It is very very much a twitter thing. It has been a super common belief with the Biden ride or die folks in the liberal writer/pundit crowd. How they got the name blue-MAGA by the more centrist liberals.
Have you seen the 2016 election. For MONTHS the major news outlets treated Hillary Clinton’s email server like it was the end of the world. Then this summer the major news outlets just shit on Joe Biden for weeks.
I felt like that too and he is trying to push there narrative that it's neck and neck which is BS. It's likely 70% Trump but they are trying to convince everyone it's close so when they cheat people may sort of believe it.
Haley or Rubio? This guy lost all credibility with that statement. I’m definitely more in touch with politics than him and I’m just a regular blue collar worker.
idk Chris, i think Nate is quite behind on how things are operating. His model of biasness and few other things is pretty behind. He clearly seems to have a tds to some extent. Marko rubio or nickey haley... lol that would lose almost all of Trump's support. Its a simple case of Gell-Mann's amnesia, within his own field. He is so deep into his research that any variable, that he hasnt encountered or any new data, he is rationalizing it doesnt impact his model. Cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias in play. If you dont look at it from persuasion variable and the tools being used, this is non-sense.
All my conservative Middle Eastern and libertarian leaning friends would not vote for Trump if he picked her. That was the worst take I’ve ever heard lmaoi
I question his bias. Because RCP has Pennsylvania with a trump +1 but nate uses a poll with a harris +5 to drag down trumps approval rating even though that pollster was heavily wrong in 2020. Yet atlas polling was the most accurate and Nate doesn't weigh their polling heavier. Also nate silver does not look into cross tabs which show that the majority of these pollsters are over sampling democrats which is skewing them left.
@henryburton6529 no i am questioning his bias. He weighs pollsters who got it wrong in 2020 too heavily. They skew to far to the left. Also can you read?
The fact that he opened up saying things wont be like this ever again almost made me move on to another video. How is someone in the business of prediction not able to see how predictable the escalation of political tensions and vitriol will continue until the end of the country.
A good follow up to his assertion that after J6 Trump is more of a threat to democracy would have been, " do you think that Democrats are a threat given how Harris didn't receive a single vote to become the nominee?" Where is/was democracy then?
31:50 That's because at least half of the population of Las Vegas are California transplants. Most of the construction and jobs such as landscaping is like 95% Mexicans. Casinos are a mixed bag. That's pretty much our two industries - construction and gaming. That's why we had a local DEPRESSION after the mortgage bubble fiasco 2008-2010. I think our true unemployment rate was at least 25% in 2009.
He said the MSM isn't biased vs dems like they are paranoid about, and instead are center left, and there are also some on big forces on the right that provide balence. His take was pretty nuanced, your characterization is pretty bad.
Deluded. The fact of the matter is that The corporations and oligarchs run the networks and govt. they don’t control Trump. So the media censors and warps things to make it seem like Trump is evil when he is not. The neo con democrats war loving party is Kamala and Biden. Just ask the creep Dick Cheney who he is voting for
@@OhWellWhatTheHell1 I don't agree with any of the candidates on how the government should be run. But Vance still came across as the most down to earth, intelligent and cordial candidate to me.
@@AmsInTheMittenofAmericaI disagree. I was shocked over JD Vance at the debate and I feel like an idiot for listening to media coverage about him. He’s literally the opposite of what I expected. Legit undid every bit of bad PR I had been served.
Vance changing his mind about Trump in an 8 year period is not flip-flopping. Vance's position on Trump in 2024 is clearly understood. Flip-flopping is when a politician changes their stated views on an issue depending on their audience, and remains as vague as possible, as Harris is a model for.
And Republicans will still never own or talk about the fact you tried to overturn an election. Why isn’t Pence next to Trump? Because Trump literally left him for dead on 1/6. Trump is anti-American as they come.
But for someone that operates with a hive mind, any deviation is a flip flop. The right understand but disagrees with the left. The left doesn’t understand the right and refuses to learn.
This 💯! Kamala respawned like a video game character as a different person after Biden dropped out. Like very recently she was spewing far left insanity but suddenly she reappears as a moderate. What a scam.
I mean, they act like their argument makes sense but they know it doesn’t. Someone changing my opinion of them thru their actions is not flip flopping. It’s rather normal. But this clown knows that. They all know that.
I don't agree with Nate Silver on much, but i think it's important to hear his side so we can be informed. There is a lot of bias and you'll never have unbiased news. Glad Chris had Nate on
I love how the left's #1 (NUMBER ONE) topic for voting is abortion. LOLOLOL You cannot make this up. Not the economy, not WWIII, not out of control government spending...but getting their abortions. You guys are unbelievable. LOL
@@gsml1393 yup they are unbelievably dumb. Especially since abortion is left up to the states now. It's not even a federal issue. The people get to vote on what policies they want in their state. Democrats talk about democracy but cry when it doesn't go their way
@@Joaopereira-dh3dw You do relise American is one of the most radical countries in the world as far how far we allow abortions? So it's not just dumb to ignore other issues but also radicalized
Well you should take all prediction forecasts with a grain of salt. But Nate seems quite committed to following the data which is the absolute best you can hope for and anyone who understands prediction models knows that they are simply models to give a clearer picture of the race and a realistic range of outcomes, but no poll aggregator will ever get it totally right because the polls do not ever get it totally right.
Also just a bad person. You can’t hide it forever. Even the woman best at hiding her crazy could only hide it from me for 6 months. Look that shit up that’s truth.
Who else would consider a National Divorce? Let the counties or states that want unlimited social programs, abortion, & trans care, those who want to accept all immigrants here since 2020, those who are okay with government supervised speech online & limited 2A access, those who prefer to convert to solar & wind, to all electric homes & drive electric cars, those who want to continue supporting the Ukraine & are okay with the taxes or economy that produces vote for Kamala & be their own country under her administration? And, let counties or states that want limited social programs, limited abortion, trans surgery only by adults who pay for it, who want to remove immigrants that came in since 2020 & want the border closed, want unlimited free speech & 2A Rights, no more funding for Ukraine or MidEast conflicts, & are happy to accept the economy & taxes that go with that, vote for Trump & live under his administration. Would you be okay to go your own way & live with people who think & vote like you if it meant the other side lived all together & you didn't have to debate with, pay for, or cater to the other side? You might have to move, or maybe your boss or neighbors would move, but it would safe, respectful, & each side would leave the other alone. Without any logistical objections, if this could happen, would you be up for it? The NorthEast coast, Michigan, New Mexico, California, Oregon, Washington & maybe Arizona might become the Progressive States of America, and the Midwest, the South, & the Mountain states might become the Constitutional States of America. Separate budgets, separate laws, separate foreign wars, & separate taxes. And no more arguing, no more stress. Would you be up for it? I would. (And I might have to move, but would do so without complaint, (though I love where I live & was born where I reside.) Who else would be okay with something similar to this?
I've been saying this for years! I think people on both sides would be so much happier to have a government that represents their values. The way things are going, I think there will be a very uncivil war in our near future-- no matter who gets elected.
Good example of the difference between intelligence and basic common sense - and of the tendency for people who demonstrate intelligence through manipulation of data to make stuff up. 60 years ago, we were voting on 2 competing versions of one idea. Now we are voting on 2 completely different ideas. One of them is based on our Constitution and foundational principles, and the other is based on overturning them.
It’s funny when you guys call her Comrade Harris when Putin would most definitely prefer Trump in office because he’s a dictator sympathizer and easy to manipulate. This is why Russia spreads so much misinformation online to HELP Trump win. But keep on keeping on 🙄
As soon as he mentioned Nikki Haley as a VP choice, this episode was over. Nate can't be trusted at all. Nikki Haley...lol. He might as well have said obama or Bush.
Rasmussen is a deeply unserious organization. They were an early predictor of Trump’s 2016 win and have been riding that for 8 years despite their wild polling since.
WHY WHY why are folks w a platform, praising Nate Silver?! IF you do your research re politics, his record is NOT worth the praise he’s getting. Is he paying folks to platform him to increase his book sale? Idk about his sports betting record. Maybe he’s strong there. He is partisan, doesn’t have a great record re politics, and cannot be trusted re politics. If good re sports betting, maybe that’s where he should be praised, but NOT on politics! Just stop giving him credit he doesn’t deserve. It’s a disservice to voters. Better yet, have him AND someone better re politics polling etc., like Rich Baris, to debate.
I've worked in politics most of my adult life. Most very wealthy people are not affiliated strongly with either party. They always go with their pocketbook. Social issues are irrelevant. What is good for them personally is the over riding factor.
@AM2K2 Because it's a waste of time while in the middle of casting votes. I just dropped my voter ballot today. Kamala is emotionally immature. She is only a mud slinging non-issue. No one voted for her. No one. I advise Trump to stay on the rally trails and help hurricane victims.
People in the comments just don’t like Nate silver because yourube too much republican bias. Thank you for having him on and giving another perspective
Absolutely love that you interviewed Nate. Don't see him doing long-form interviews much. I have even more respect now for both of you and really enjoyed this conversation.
@FacundoCampazzo123 while I agree that Trump is erratic, we were not at war or risking major wars during his presidency. World seems to be more dangerous now.
Chris seems like a moderate guy. Why is his audience filled with such diehard trumpers? Everyone in the comments is so quick to hate just because this guy isnt a trump shill. Chris is very open minded, you guys should try and actually listen to his guests that you disagree with.
30:29 Correct. Just about every ad on TV here in Las Vegas right now is a political ad, except for the evening news which is all big pharma BS AND political ads. So tired of it already!
Commenters are mad at a statistician for pointing out JD Vance has poor poled favorability. I know people get emotional about their favorite politicians, but the numbers are what they are.
It's hard to take someone serious if they genuinely believe "January 6th" was an insurrection. If you believe was an "insurrection" than you need to get your vision checked. You're probably legally blind😂
Nate Silver 11/3/2020: Our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 8 percentage points, more than twice Clinton’s projected margin at the end of 2016. He only missed that one by 4%. If he is still off 4%, that gives Trump a 1.2% national lead today.
Thank you for having Nate Silver on. It is nice to hear from a real mathemetician / statistician. It is a nice break from the standard math illiteracy fare for the masses. Roughly 91% of whom are less than proficient in math.
I studied statistics for 4 years at Uni for Psychology. I would prefer to crawl across a rusty bed of nails to reach crocodile infested pox pit than have to open one of those textbooks again. And then I see Chris, and my hormone response was clinically significant :)
Your interviews just keep leveling up! I mean you started with Douglas Murray, how could you go up from there? Welp, your guest quality is constantly awesome and your level of conversationalismocracying just keeps getting better and better.
There were mentions of people being critical of Kamala for flip flopping as if that’s the issue and not being absolutely unable to explain why she flip flopped even when given the opportunity on a platter. Changing your opinions isn’t a bad thing, but sometimes it’s nice to know why it happened.
I've polled my friends and followers just asking if they are undecided for this election and so far not a single no. Who are these so called "undecided" voters?
I’m a bit disappointed, Chris.. You’re smarter than that. What you call flip-flopping are concessions! Since you brought up the fracking conversation, it’s not like she is suddenly for fracking is the fact that we have an unstable world with unstable supply and that we could suffer from not doing some thing potentially long-term with negative consequences for a short term of positive. Flip-flopping would be saying abortion is murder and then saying that murder is sometimes OK, so maybe the conversation should be with that side.
If you're too blind to see that she is "changing" her long-held positions about important issues to get votes, most which she held publicly at least as recently as 2020, then you probably shouldn't be lecturing anyone about how smart they are or aren't :) Also, she isn't actually changing her views, just lying that she's changing them...once she's in office, she'll be behind the same policies she always supported and against those she's always been against, including fracking. This is what liars do: they lie.
Agency, plurality, reciprocity: three concepts antithetical to the current Democratic Party. Try going against the group by asserting your own agency, by engaging with a plurality of views, and there will be very little reciprocity. More like wrath.
Hey Everyone 🤠 Find the parts that interest you: 0:00 - Overview of the election cycle 1:01 - Impact of Trump's previous elections 2:34 - Challenges in polling accuracy 9:47 - Immigration as a key issue 12:48 - Importance of undecided voters 20:04 - Balancing optics in political campaigns 22:44 - Trump's controversial pick of JD Vance 28:01 - Impact of wokeness on political messaging 30:24 - Key states determining the election 32:53 - Third-party candidates and political adaptation 40:28 - Concerns about social status and credentials 42:07 - Partisanship affecting expertise during COVID 45:01 - Sam Bankman-Fried's overconfidence and risk-taking 50:57 - The allure of crypto profits 52:37 - Compounded knowledge vs. cyclical knowledge 1:00:53 - Discussing the power of attention 1:05:44 - Traits for dealing with risk effectively Recap by Bumpups ✏️
The answer to the paradox of 'we don't have too much power' and 'if the other team wins, apocalypse" can be found in a rather revealing statement made by Franklin Roosevelt in his 1936 address to Congress: "We have built up new institutions of public power. In the hands of a people's government this power is wholesome and proper. But in the hands of political puppets of an economic autocracy such power would provide shackles for the liberties of the people." Basically it's not important what power there is, but rather who wields it. The expansion of the federal government into every facet of our lives means that who controls the levers of power has a shocking amount of petty authority to dramatically impact our daily lives.
Not even an intro for this dude or a straight up podcast intro. Kinda tough with no context to walk into something like this without understanding who the guest is
