Powerful JMU Alum Threatens NCAA; Conflicting Reports On PAC-2/MWC Future | Underdogs | Ep. 71 

The two-year post-season ban was originally implemented to prevent lower-level schools from jumping between divisions when they thought they had a team that could compete at elevated levels and then drop back down to where they can operate less expensively only to jump back up again when they have another good team.

I think what most of Beaver nation is looking/hoping for, short of a B12 invite is to survive 2 years until MWC media deal closes out. After 2 years add six teams to get to the eight and in time some of the old members will realize travel is hurting its non-football members and come back (CAL & Stanford). Possibly a couple of the ones that went to the B12, ASU & Utah went kicking and screaming to the B12. Arizona & CAL have money problems, especially CAL. CAL went to the ACC at a discount rate.

Hey Trey, as a JMU alumni I’m going to give you, and those who watch the show, some more context on the Letter that the law firm sent to the NCAA per request of the AG. In the letter it states two laws that the Firm, and the AG, believes the NCAA is in violation of. They are the State of Virginia Anti-Trust Act and the Federal Law The Sherman Act. These two laws state that no business can operate with monopolistic practices in order to mitigate competition in the fair market. Now, I know most would say the NCAA isn’t a company because they are a nonprofit organization. But all nonprofit 501c have to follow federal and state laws. Because the “Marshall rule” was set up to prevent what happened to Marshall in the future , that is a justification for the establishment of it. However, because we have seen that the NCAA does not follow that rule to a T that rule can be interpreted within a legal framework as monopolistic. Liberty went from the FCS to the FBS, 2017-2018 with no conference affiliation and was granted a waiver for bowl eligibility in their second season, 2018. Many believe it because they threatened to sue. So, within the state of Virginia, there is precedents that has been set the NCAA does grant teams a waiver. So that is why I think the AG is looking at the case and initiated the process to sue the NCAA because of Anti-trust legislation. I want to say this, anyone that says JMU “needs to follow the rule” but is from a team that didn’t go from fcs to fbs, doesn’t have a horse in this race. Your school was in D1-A before this rule was in place. You’re entitled to your opinion, but your opinion shouldn’t become law. Trey, you do an amazing job and keep up the great work.

JMU gets screwed out of a NY6 bowl over a shitty rule that shouldn't exist while Michigan gets to go to the playoff while breaking at least 2 rules. The NCAA is the WORST

I know it’s hard to talk about cougars and beavers with a straight face😂

If the Pac-2 does not get a power 4 invite, they should expand to become the next best power conference. Take the best from the Mountain West (SDSU, Boise. Fresno, UNLV, CO. ST.) the best from the American (Tulane, Memphis, SFU and Rice or Temple) and U CONN to form the new PAC 12 conference. That would basically guarantee access for the new PAC 12 conference. The conference would probably qualify for an annual TV payout of about 17mm to 20mm per year. When you add NCAA basketball credits, bowl payouts and third-tier rights, it could approach 25 million per year per team. The TV package would be the key. It would probably include a package with 60% linear 40% streaming. The conference would have very good basketball and very good football along with excellent population centers to support such a TV payout. There would be no question this would be the fifth best conference. With the use of Pod systems for Olympic sports competitions, the conference would remain very competitive in football and basketball for the most part and still have excellent Olympic sports.

Trey, unfortunately you are 100% correct on JMU. The OSU and WSU are fair part on any merger with the MWC.

As a supporter of the AAC I'd prefer a full merger of the PAC-2 and the MW under the PAC-14 umbrella for 2 reasons... 1. It would protect the AAC from being poached in the immediate future. 2. It would almost guarantee a much bigger payout for the AAC in their next media deal and... 3. It keeps Hawaii in an FBS conference, otherwise Hawaii would have to hang on as an independent until the arival of the United Athletic Conference (WAC/ASUN) to the FBS level, if it ever happens.

Wow! You asked a ton of great questions. I probably have thoughts on all of them, but my response would be too long. The short answer is that we can't know the future with certainty. So, let's look at this from various perspectives. OSU and WSU would to schedule games for the next 2 years. After that, they would like to invite a minimum of 6 schools into their conference. They are not Cal or Stanford, so they don't need AAU status schools. They need schools that have a strong football program, a commitment and ability to continue an athletic/football program, and a fan base that will generate revenue and appeal to media partners. They will prefer schools that are closer to them. They will want a 2-year media deal, with the option to renegotiate once they have at least 8 members. This happens to coincide with the MWC's media contract expiration. The MWC schools that perceive themselves as the best 6 candidates to join the PAC, will love a scheduling agreement that gives them an additional opportunity to defeat a PAC school, and gives them the opportunity to host a PAC team, which rarely happens now. Furthermore, they are ready to jump to the PAC whenever the opportunity arises, the details are negotiable. On the other hand the 6 MWC schools which fear that they might not be invited, fear that they will lose more upon the 6 "best" schools leaving than they gain by the scheduling opportunity for 2 years. That's why they want the additional compensation or "penalty". So, the details matter. Bigger picture, the AAC has been the 6th best conference over the past 10 years. I know MWC and SBC fan boys dispute this but the record is that the AAC champion has been selected 8 of the last 10 years for the NY6, the MWC has 1, and the MAC has 1. (The SBC has 0). It has been no contest. As I explained, in my view, the CFP committee views the AAC champion as having an additional loss, and all other so-called "G5" conference champions as having an additional 2 losses. That is reflected in a 1-loss Tulane being ranked, while 0-loss JMU and Liberty are unranked. If you look at the rest of the CFP rankings, you will see that the CFP is very ordinal, meaning there is a strata of 0-loss teams, 1-loss teams, and so forth. However, I believe that this situation potentially harms the AAC's status, because adding OSU and WSU to the best 6 MWC teams will be a stronger conference than the AAC. Agreeing to a 5-7 model for the future CFP, may effectively block the AAC's access to the CFP. I believe that the AAC's past refusal to negotiate with OSU and WSU was a grave mistake. Now, the AAC should NOT agree to changing the 6-6 model. We shall see.

There's legal precedent for JMU to challenge the NCAA and win, however, that won't help the JMU cause of getting access to post season this year. The two with the most prominent affect on college football... 1. The NCAA v. Board of Regents of the University of Oklahoma... the biggest reason why all this realignment BS is happening! 2. U. S. Supreme Court ruling on the case National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) v. Alston... The court unanimously found the NCAA’s compensation rules violated the Sherman Act when they restricted non-cash education-related benefits such as post-eligibility undergraduate or graduate scholarships or tutoring, study-abroad expenses, and paid post-eligibility internships. This lead to the NIL and the cementing of the P5/G5 and solidified the CFP stranglehold on College Football!

How about JMU and Liberty play at the end of the season. It can be the Mother of Presidents Cup.

This is not about saving the PAC but rather what is in the best interest of OSU and WSU. I think eventually both will get invited to a big conference but will have a smaller share of the revenue.

If the Big 12 and ACC would have never took BYU,UH and SMU. Those 3 including San Diego State,Boise State, Fresno State,Colorado State,UNLV, Rice would have been good stable pick ups. Especially if Standford and Cal Stayed. They could push for a 20 million dollar deal. Alongside recruiting for basketball Gonzaga and Saint Marys. Then that would push the AAC to get Air Force, especially the prospect of having Navy, Army and Air Force, Air Force would more than likely want the remaining mountain west teams (Nevada,Utah State,New Mexico,Wyoming,San Jose State) to make AAC West wing, especially the AAC could push further to making a Super G5 Conference (with Texas State, New Mexico State, UTEP).

The tough part for AAC schools trying to push into the ACC is there are a couple prime candidates in SDSU and UConn outside of the AAC that will be hard for the ACC to turn down. They need to improve their basketball quality and add some markets the ACC network currently isn’t found in, while also ensuring the teams can invest more in football and still support themselves with extremely low revenue shares(probably half of what Stanford and cal got). We’ve seen what SDSU Is capable of and UConn has invested in football when they were in power conferences. Meanwhile Memphis might struggle to generate revenue as they don’t own their stadium or arena and USF isn’t really needed unless Miami leaves along with FSU.

Fascinating seeing high stakes MUSICAL CHAIRS play out in front of us. IMO, OreSt/WashSt will see their stock fall waiting out TV deals, etc. 2 years from now they're not going to be as attractive. My advice, join the MW and leave it to the courts to get your PAC12 money.

Not that a reformed PAC would want Temple since the football team might be one of the hardest jobs (unless they go big market=good). Even if they did and it was a couple million more a year I wouldn’t want Temple to join a conference with majority west of Mississippi teams. I believe the AD agrees since Temple was not one of the teams that reported reached out or applied to join the Pac a couple months ago unlike ECU, USF etc

AAC schools to me are in a good spot and I don’t think from a travel and financial perspective makes sense to join the PAC. I could see the PAC going after a UTEP or a Texas State to get into Texas. Maybe even New Mexico State. I think USF, Memphis and Tulane are holding out to see how the ACC shakes out.

OSU & WSU are not AAU member so that will not be looked at.

Trey, you crammed 2 hours into a 1 hour show so I could not respond to everything at once. I am looking forward to your podcast announcement. As for the PAC12/PAC2, I believe you have a Texas saying: this dog won’t hunt! The same is true on X announcements warring over what they desire and not what is. Bottomline, you nailed the PAC2 wants a rebuilt PAC8 to PAC12 and the MWC wants a total merger to try and get AAC parity OR the MWC wants ironclad penalties to make sure they don’t commit Conference suicide. These are irreconcilable differences. Additionally, you nailed the coffin on PAC8 to PAC12 reconstitution. They will lose their P5 status as soon as a Petition For Dissolution is filed in a California state court. There will be an asset injunction and the money will be tied up for at least 2 years. With no P5 status, no immediate money, and no media deal, the PAC2 are G5 schools walking. What you did not say, out of respect for OSU and WSU fans, is that these schools overplayed their hand. Compared to Arizona, ASU, Colorado, and Utah, the fact OSU and WSU did not realize they were the most vulnerable is mind boggling. As soon as Colorado found B1G resistance to its admission, it signed an immediate B12 deal. OSU and WSU should have been the 1ST schools in the lifeboat. OSU and WSU were not Southwest Conference schools. They had no historical attachments like Colorado. Arizona and ASU had flirted with the B12 for years. This was a slow motion train wreck. OSU and WSU have limited options. It’s too late to go independent. Joining the MWC could mean accepting $5-$8 million per school per year for 2 years. Being a full member might still have conditions about raiding. The special system you mention will not guarantee OSU and WSU top ranking. This will not work. Joining the AAC is better academically, but ESPN will not add full shares. Travel costs are high. There are no good options of lesser bad options. My forecasted outcome: 1: OSU and WSU join the MWC as full members, accept their money amount, and get no PAC8 to PAC12 reconstitution restrictions. 2: The PAC8 to PAC12 never reconstitutes, although an effort is made. 3: 6 MWC schools in large markets or with big followings join the AAC. It includes Air Force. Georgia State makes the AAC 21. By 2030, ESPN actually ups the media payout to $10 million per school.

Some of my thoughts on these matters remain the same, Trey. If the PAC-2 (OrSU and Wazzu) poach teams, the AAC will not, I repeat, not be hit all that much. The AAC may lose 2 teams but won't lose half their conference. The MWC is running that risk, though. It wouldn't surprise me to see a brand-new DIY-style conference consisting of familiar name schools, and some G5 and FCS schools lumped together. James Madison should go to a bowl game this year. I know about the 2-year transition rule, but it's archaic and dumb, to be blunt. There are some NCAA rules that deserve to be rewritten or abolished altogether. This is one of those rules imo.