Thanks for the detailed analysis, enjoyed it. A lot of different factors go into making the predictions it seems. I'll be honest I don't have a clue how I would gather the required info to make predictions this way. With horses I do the same sort of thing and I know where to get the info, but football is a mystery to me. Having said that, I'm trying something new and have placed about 35 football bets this week based purely on statistical probability with some software we made. So far we are in a small profit, but will that continue? Who knows, s**t happens, but fingers crossed time will tell.
Thanks John Doe! If you are attempting to build your own sports module - I would advise you to try an individual sport first - WTA/ATP could be much more interesting! The number of factors is reduced significantly, and bookmaker modules seem to struggle with the significance of ''motivation'' & a number of other factors! To cut a long story short - It's easy to get data and picture feeds, and unlike with racing the pool size is small. The best Sports-modelling works when the number of variables is small - Running a software program on HK racing is significantly easier than in the UK. The reason, the tracks, draw, ground, and other contingencies are easy to read/understand - We could also point to it being policed better, and because of the big prize money it's more honest! Still - Good to hear that you are continually testing - I like the effort and can only wish you all the luck!
With that said, don't dilute it too much!! I've had many Wannabee sports modelers thinking it's enough to divide season totals and come up with an expected xG. In any case, the proof is in the pudding, if people are winning and have longevity, they are doing things right - Losing is not bad luck!
@@BettingAnalyst Agree with that. It also takes time to understand dynamics. That is why I usually say, start with simple metrics and look for trends, then dive into details. If trying to incorporate to much into your models to start, its hard to see what is actually working and what is not benefiting your bottom line.
@@toggen4852 - Yes! An algorithm is only as good as the person who created it! This is one of the reasons I recommend first-timers start with a best-of-two sport, and that's when I turn to Tennis! Ranking Surface h-2-h Motivation $Value (very important) Proximity of last tournament. Journey Physical wellbeing Type of player match-up Stage of tournament Conditions! That would be enough to get started. As for football - In-play can be approached in an easier manner! While things can change, psychologists can read the game better than a data-based algorithm.
@@BettingAnalyst Not a Tennis bettor at all, but for football it is very possible to win long term just by watching odds movements in play alone. I also agree that someone with the know how can do better than a set algorithm. I will watch you videos. Always appreciate different takes on profitable betting
@@handeyecoordinationskills It's not really the idea behind this channel to give out our own tips - In good faith - Nottingham Forest to beat Sheffield United
