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Preflop Analysis 

MIT OpenCourseWare
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21 авг 2024

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Комментарии : 107   
@cak92983
@cak92983 8 лет назад
For tomorrows class I'm going to show you how to misplay the J 7 offsuit.
@KaBastian
@KaBastian 9 месяцев назад
i got full house thx ❤️❤️
@bionictulip
@bionictulip 6 лет назад
This would be significantly more useful if the screen showed his slide deck about 80 percent of the time, and only showed him on camera the other 20 percent (such as when he's standing away from the screen and not referring to something on the slide).
@mitocw
@mitocw 6 лет назад
The lecture notes are available on MIT OpenCourseWare at: ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s50-poker-theory-and-analytics-january-iap-2015/lecture-notes/
@Twitledum9
@Twitledum9 Год назад
Yes, correct. I have the lecture notes open simultaneously, which helps my understanding immensely.
@welcometotheshow5247
@welcometotheshow5247 2 года назад
He is pretty much talking about table image and how that can correlate with fold equity, this does work most definitely, but I think it’s biggest kryptonite is the farther you get away from it will increase ur opponents chance of having a better hand, so timing is key and gagging runners (if u are play online and seeing more hands than u would live), and this also correlates with how aggressive u are playing and frequencies u and ur opponent may be on in an intuitive sense.
@ttom1122
@ttom1122 8 лет назад
At 6:34 some people talking are pissing him off. I've seen that look.
@christopherjohnson1873
@christopherjohnson1873 6 лет назад
Tom Bailey "Do you have a question?"
@jonrosner
@jonrosner 8 лет назад
Thanks for the good lecture, but the notes on your site are completely out of order compared to his slides, it is really hard to follow when you first have to check on what page he is now. Anyway, thanks for the upload
@copierofvideos2
@copierofvideos2 8 лет назад
slides ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-school-of-management/15-s50-poker-theory-and-analytics-january-iap-2015/lecture-notes/MIT15_S50IAP15_L4_PreFlop.pdf
@michaelarend4787
@michaelarend4787 2 года назад
Hopefully there will be a doctor thesis about "how to play JJ right" in the future.
@xalx2263
@xalx2263 4 года назад
"im saying, like, even, like, err, no matter what his, like, the villain does, always always push all in with 9, 6 off suit"
@breezybadger2676
@breezybadger2676 4 года назад
200 IQ play right there. 2% of the time, it works, every time.
@dagoods528
@dagoods528 7 лет назад
what is more important, having la large edge in win % or having big edge as far as implied odds?
@cryptovideo8105
@cryptovideo8105 5 лет назад
having a large edge in terms of double check-raising
@jasonsaulters6027
@jasonsaulters6027 Год назад
I know this is an old video but he says that if you call 50% of the time and the villain shoves 50% of the time you will dominate his range but how could that possibly be true if you have the same range as the other guy? It's basically a coinflip but this video perfe tly sums up why I hate heads up poker and youre better off just shoving allin and trying to make the better hand.
@mostordinaryexistence
@mostordinaryexistence 11 месяцев назад
What theory is generalization of this to 6-ring cash game? Is the only solution is running solver on supercomputers?
@mad1337nes
@mad1337nes 10 месяцев назад
Cash is significantly deeper stacked compared to these examples. A normal computer can solve "optimal" play for cash, using GTO. Tons of videos about GTO solver/game theory optimal play on RU-vid. Basically the same as this range calculation to start, and then with extra streets/actions available to look forward to and the possibility of your hand improving (or degrading). With some pot odds/ stack ratios and potential extra bets math to really make things confusing.
@eieiuhooh1
@eieiuhooh1 2 года назад
please fire the cameraman
@ollyoceango
@ollyoceango 6 лет назад
Do they provide Voss water to faculty and staff, or did he buy the Voss water?
@alptorungil9273
@alptorungil9273 2 года назад
Incredible observation and question
@ollyoceango
@ollyoceango 2 года назад
@@alptorungil9273 We need to know. 4 years later and still no answer
@ashypharaoh8407
@ashypharaoh8407 2 года назад
It's just tap water. He refills the Voss bottle
@christophermayfield6043
@christophermayfield6043 Год назад
@@ollyoceango he has to buy he's only paid 4k for the class
@siIverspawn
@siIverspawn 7 месяцев назад
amazing lecture
@kfor5606
@kfor5606 3 года назад
Wow, no wonder I suck at poker.
@jonday1422
@jonday1422 9 месяцев назад
5:41 can you tell me how he figured out that villain will cal 27% of the time??
@Kloonike
@Kloonike 9 лет назад
9:55 - how does SD Equity go up versus a stronger calling range? It doesn't make sense, there shouldn't be a curve (we shouldn't have more SD equity vs 20% calling range compared to a 80% calling range).
@jamesnelson3637
@jamesnelson3637 9 лет назад
Kloonike There is more SD equity vs a 20% calling range because the villains possible whole cards is dramatically less. With an 80% calling range there are more hands out there that have a possibility to win.
@Gidid56
@Gidid56 9 лет назад
Kloonike it's the absolute showdown equity over all hands (including those which villain folds) Equity of 96o vs. 25% range: 31.65% Equity of 96o vs. 50% range: 35.02% SD Equity vs 25% range: 25% * 31.65% * Money = 7.91 % * money SD Equity vs 50% range: 25% * 35.02% * Money = 17.51 % * money
@ianbrewer4843
@ianbrewer4843 2 года назад
Great lecture
@needmoreprivacy4947
@needmoreprivacy4947 9 лет назад
He starts talking about "M" about half way through but I can't figure out where it is defined. What is M?
@scottab140
@scottab140 9 лет назад
Nee Dmoreprivacy Chip Blinds
@coryhenniges3857
@coryhenniges3857 8 лет назад
Look between L and N, you'll find it.
@thecake03
@thecake03 8 лет назад
M is the amount of times you can pay all availible before going broke. divide the blinds and antes to your stack and that is you rM
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
it was in the first lecture, it's your stack as a percentage to SB + BB + antes
@Twitledum9
@Twitledum9 Год назад
@@333Columbia this answer is correct
@josephgeorge7385
@josephgeorge7385 4 года назад
Thanks for posting
@honeybun432
@honeybun432 2 года назад
can anyone exlplain how to find fold %? it seems to me like it just something poker tracker is tracking..
@moisesespino2021
@moisesespino2021 8 лет назад
the camera completly sucks......how can u see this ?!!
@mitocw
@mitocw 8 лет назад
You can download the slide deck and other materials on the course site: ocw.mit.edu/15-S50IAP15.
@bgymn-fn8jy
@bgymn-fn8jy 4 года назад
ill just call your 97o shove and take your stack thanks
@Oldiesyoungies
@Oldiesyoungies 9 лет назад
Good grief!! I thought poker was suppose to be fun :P
@curtisbourque8713
@curtisbourque8713 9 лет назад
+Justin Giglio Poker is fun. It's just a lot of work to play mathematically optimal. But it becomes instinct after a while. This is just the math stuff, getting a feel for the players at you're table and understanding how those players see you is just as important.
@rexfordhazelton7601
@rexfordhazelton7601 2 года назад
Wow. Do the real good players more effectively estimate ranges basically and do the math based on those ranges.
@christophermayfield6043
@christophermayfield6043 Год назад
yes
@mad1337nes
@mad1337nes 10 месяцев назад
41:25 mostly on the pushing (sb) side. Knowing the numbers and exploiting small edges that add up over thousands (hundreds of thousands) of spots. I haven't played online since black Friday, but casual players will always be too tight in 6 or less handed situations, or weakly trying to play (fold) into maybe one higher pay position. Which is a whole other lecture about tournament pay jumps/chip equity. Especially in low M situations caused by turbo structures, being the aggressor and shoving a very high % is a +ev play, because "tight" or even "good" players will overfold and let you print free chips without needing to showdown (which you can then use to take a 40/60 with a short stack when your blind defends come, effectively freerolling that hand). Live, the structures of serious (non daily) tournaments never get that low on M...and so most of the TV guys still play normal (bad) poker, and there isn't this push/fold dynamic...so they don't get preyed on as hard. Deeper stack it's more about 3 betting light, firing multiple streets postflop. The same levels of aggression (with the same intended effect of making "good/solid" players overfold), just in a less calculatable and much larger action tree.
@FelipeAwC
@FelipeAwC 5 лет назад
I'm sorry but i don't know english very well, and i didn't understand the variable M, what does it mean? Thanks, and sorry about the poor english
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
its your stack divided by SB + BB + antes
@abel55346
@abel55346 2 года назад
M is introduced in his first lecture, you may wish to revisit that lecture.
@gaglia
@gaglia 4 года назад
Super interesting
@brett7011
@brett7011 6 лет назад
this dude smart.
@breezybadger2676
@breezybadger2676 4 года назад
At 1:39. All in with 3rd pair on the river... and its a pair of 9s. Either this is this a class on how to be the best fish you can possibly be or this guy's a con man. Who in their right mind would do that in a cash game, online. Like its less than 2 minutes into the lecture and I know I'm about to be fed generous amounts of bullshit. Then, not long after, I'm not disappointed when the goes "so... umm, you should always go ALL IN with 9 .6 off suit"..... WOW. Give this man an Oscar because, unless he's completely clueless, I don't know how he did that with a straight face.
@HDsharp
@HDsharp 6 лет назад
Is this the standard of lecturers MIT students have to put up with, talking robots? looks like from the response from the class only the lecturer knows what hes taking about. I've learnt so much more in explainations miles shorter than this, this lecture drives me mad.
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
hey, theory and science is not fun. What did you expect? he explains stuff, not performing and entertaining show
@yoooooooooo97
@yoooooooooo97 8 лет назад
You would be a very predictable regular
@jorge.rubiales
@jorge.rubiales 8 лет назад
Doesn't matter, if you play optimal mathematics you'll win on the long run. That's why bots are not allowed on serious sites, because you need opponents that can make mathematical mistakes.
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
@@jorge.rubiales good point, + this is only theory and we haven't covered a topic of balance
@Malcolm.Y
@Malcolm.Y 5 лет назад
First 6 minutes, he says, seems counter-intuitive? That's because his calcs are wrong. Yes, the fold equity value is about $120 (27% of 450). But, how can that possibly increase, when added to the negative non-fold equity. Non-fold equity portion is always negative when hero is the underdog. This guy can play at my house and keep shipping it with 9-6 and other garbage hands until his money runs out. Better I get it than someone else.
@HC-jd4rc
@HC-jd4rc 4 года назад
Actually, you're wrong. I'll let you find your error yourself (Hint : your error is at he fold equity value). You're trying to contradict the basic maths of a teacher at MIT.
@ferlino123
@ferlino123 4 года назад
@@HC-jd4rc hahahah
@cj7139
@cj7139 3 года назад
"Yes, the fold equity value is about $120 (27% of 450)" You're using 27% when you should be using the inverse, 73%. 27% constitutes the percentage of time he calls, not folds, therefore FE= (73% of 450)=328.5 More importantly, he already proved mathematically that there is no way to exploit the shove with 96off. This is all related to how ridiculously shallow the stacks get in these turbos.
@justinkatz8664
@justinkatz8664 7 лет назад
This guy is so dry I would fall asleep at the poker table.
@HDsharp
@HDsharp 6 лет назад
Dry..lol (definately), he sounds like a typical nerd, its as if he speaks another language even tho he clearly speaks english and we understand poker terms.
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
hey this is theory and science, it's always like that, what do you expect? a stand up comedy? or an entertaining show?
@DystopianMonkeyMan
@DystopianMonkeyMan 8 месяцев назад
worst camera man ever. for f sake, he doesn't even try...
@daniellugo4272
@daniellugo4272 9 лет назад
push allin with 96 offsuit....what a fucking joke....this is only good for pokerstars...
@NomonC11
@NomonC11 8 лет назад
It's for very low M. So for extremely short stack play, like up to 10BB (but mostly 1-2BB). And then it is the less bad move. And it's not concerning ICM. ...
@bradmundies425
@bradmundies425 7 лет назад
Daniel doesn't understand poker.
@DoubleJHas2ManyDoodles
@DoubleJHas2ManyDoodles Год назад
Watching people who don’t play poker try to break this down into only math is laughable. But I’m going to stay because I MAY learn something
@c.l.368
@c.l.368 Год назад
what makes you think he doesn't play poker? also, it's undeniable poker as a game is mathematically solvable, we're just not there yet, and even when we do solve it with a supercomputer in the future, humans won't be able to play perfectly, much like in chess. But this game is 100% theoretically solvable.
@YT7mc
@YT7mc 10 месяцев назад
@@c.l.368Poker isn’t solvable, because your choices depend on whether or not your opponent is bluffing. This isn’t chess
@c.l.368
@c.l.368 10 месяцев назад
@@YT7mc woah you clearly know what you're talking about mate, it's not like computer software *today* is already playing close to perfect poker, let alone a few years down the line....... The fact that you would bring up "ppl can bluff" as an argument just shows me how clueless you are
@c.l.368
@c.l.368 10 месяцев назад
@@YT7mc let me ask you this, is rock paper scissor solvable?
@YT7mc
@YT7mc 10 месяцев назад
@@c.l.368 Poker plays similarly to rock paper scissors. Of course it’s different, but my point is that in chess there’s an objectively correct move. Have you not noticed that every time a play is mentioned, you need to consider the opponent’s range? Sure, there’s perfect play if your opponent is also playing perfectly (in which case the game will be incredibly stagnant and determined by luck).
@dagoods528
@dagoods528 7 лет назад
dude, you talk way too much. so what are your conclusions? is there a chart to see the conclusions?
@Stalicone
@Stalicone 8 лет назад
I understand the formulaic approach...but formulas don't account for human interaction, behavior and stress response. Additionally, when you're at the tables, you don't have the luxury of running formulas in your head. The other players get bent out of shape if you take too long. If you think you can "calculate" your way out of a bad flop or river, you're sorely mistaken.
@Poslouchajici
@Poslouchajici 7 лет назад
Yet knowing the formulas shouldnt make you play worse, than you did before. Understanding them shloud give you an opportunity to get a maximum of each situation if you manage to use them in harmony with your "poker instinkt" you should be able to become much more succesful player...
@NoComplyHardware
@NoComplyHardware 7 лет назад
Yah no doubt, who needs things like pot odds, completely useless really.
@bradmundies425
@bradmundies425 7 лет назад
Pot odds are completely useless really? Bwhahahaha. I can't laugh enough at this. Pot Odds are a very important aspect of poker and are really not complicated AT ALL. They allow you to make profitable decisions if you're not playing with them you're not going to be a winning player. It should be one of the first things you learn to do when taking poker serious.
@NoComplyHardware
@NoComplyHardware 7 лет назад
Smh... sarcasm man... sarcasm.
@HDsharp
@HDsharp 6 лет назад
players can always bet more to make maths nerds fold because its not in the favour (mathmatically) to call:)
@krhymezgaming2908
@krhymezgaming2908 9 лет назад
I would love to play some of the people from this class. You can use all the math you want. i will play the player/cards.
@matta5749
@matta5749 9 лет назад
Krhymez 86 and lose badly
@HDsharp
@HDsharp 6 лет назад
notice the lecturer, hes so predictable he even speaks in a monotone...lol
@333Columbia
@333Columbia 5 лет назад
The complete poker player is the one that plays a player/cards AND uses the math. they have a lecture about game theory as well so really pointless comment.
@cj7139
@cj7139 3 года назад
He's referring specifically to common scenarios in turbos where the stacks are extremely shallow, thus "playing the player" boils down to variables such as "what % of range do they shove here..." and that's really the only types of decisions to be made with such high blinds.
@oh-gw5rv
@oh-gw5rv 2 года назад
This is how daniel negreanu plays now... i would definitely trust him over you
@FaithfulReasoning
@FaithfulReasoning 8 лет назад
These fkn math players always make call against me cause the math says so and they would be way behind and always hit fkn rag with ace when i have ace king...
@isaacwain
@isaacwain 8 лет назад
Well then your bet sizing is wrong.
@Happyduderawr
@Happyduderawr 6 лет назад
Why do people take this class instead of getting a runitonce subscription? All the coaches on runitonce know poker/(including the math) better than this guy, and actually know how to beat zoom500 too.
@oussematrabelsi9429
@oussematrabelsi9429 5 лет назад
To boost their gpa and have some fun in the winter break. It's not a semester course. It's just a 1 month course and it's only worth 1 unit and not the usual 3/4 units
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