Pro Speedrunner reacts to "The Biggest Cheating Scandal In Speedrunning History" by Karl Jobst 

Can confirm, I was eating pizza and drinking coke when I bought my lottery tickets and I won the Powerball two times consecutively. It's just fucking science at this point.

Can confirm as well, achieved World Record times in Geometry Dash and beat The Golden in one attempt while eating pizza and coke. It's a fair thing to do in speedruns, gets you the BEST times and I highly recommend it.

@@nichtsistkostenlos6565 Agreed, I've somehow managed to beat smb1 with tas-only tricks and under 5 mins, while drinking coke and eating pizza.

I got that reference!

This is indeed true. I was playing Earthbound once and I ate a hamburger irl. It healed Ness.

If anything, being good at the game makes you feel more entitled to cheat.

@@rubyy.7374 That's a quote stolen from Karl himself.

Sports nowadays have more of a non-dopers issue.

@@xavirav3358 nowadays kids in sports need to go back to the very basics i.e. only men can play men's sports and women can play women's sports. they should start from there and once they've mastered those absolute basics of logic and common sense they can move on to more subtle issues like whether doping should be allowed.

​@jhanks2012 can you go 2 minutes without thinking about trans chicks ? U freak 😂

You are an absolute legend! (Do you also get happy when an anonymous youtube account calls you a legend?)

You are an absolute legend! (Do you get happy when an anonymous youtube account calls you a legend?)

@@CKyIe yes

@@Maverick.1018 yes

@@CKyIe Kyle is close enough to karl...

Yeah, he.said it immediately after seeing Dream's reaction to 1.16 too

I'm a normal gamer but I watch speedruns and when I watched this 4 months agos or any video about it and they wondered why he would chest I thought of this line in a diffetent wording anyone's idk why I said this cause some 5 year old we'll be like who asked

I play games. For fun too. I would rather see cheaters on speedruns because they get called out faster or almost as fast as turning a picture of a random anime on your phone screen. It may take long before due to the power or technology but on games that have multiplayer cheating affects you more. It ruins your fun ruins the joy and day and 90% they wont get banned for 5 months. Back than it was the opposite for a little. Still cheating sucks

Maybe even underneath a statue of the ABSOLUTE LEGEND himself 🤔🤔

Petition to have it modded into Mario 64's newest remake, on that silver plaque under that stone Star.

@@neoqwerty what remake?

@@lennymclennington That was a joke. I was making a joke about how Nintendo fiddled with SM64 twice already. (DS, 3D All-Star) and they're bound to re-re-rerealease it in one or two console generations. Again.

@@neoqwerty DS was a remake, 3D all-stars was a re-release with upscaled textures. If the Switch re-release is mentioned why do you not mention Wii virtual console? Does it only count because they added upscaled textures?

I thought you meant Karl Jacob's . The mr beast leech/ dream simp, lol.

​@Lo Fell Don't they have a huge paper explaining it? Go and read it.

@Lo Fell And probability isn't as simple as you think (7x more lucky? The number is WAY HIGHER)

@Lo Fell you can’t just divide the amount gotten by the expected amount to get how many more times lucky you are (15%/2%) and say it’s 7x more unlikely. Nether pearl trade rates are just below 5% Getting 100/100 heads if you flip a coin isn’t twice as lucky as getting 50/100 heads. You can get the base odds by putting the numbers into a binomial calculator. At 5% odds, the chance of getting 40 trades out of 260 is so low that some calculators can’t show it.

@Lo Fell you don't work out how unlikely something is by dividing the difference in probability... Getting several heads in a row is mildly unlikely. But when you are rolling a dice with 49 wrong choices and 1 right choice? Getting the right one 15% of the time is incredibly suspicious and means that the die is weighted. Doing so once is luck. But consistently? Over hundreds of times rolling it? They literally tested it, with millions of iterations, and none of them got his kind of luck when using the legit drop rates. I know probability is hard, but just focus on that bit. They tested it. Millions and millions of times. And it did...not...happen. Not even once, not even close. The 20 IS insanely unlikely. You can see how unlikely it is. Even if you misunderstood probability and think getting twice as many in the same number of trades is just "twice as unlikely" (it's not, as the above person pointed out, since it requires 20 more 5% rolls in your favour in the same time), even if we start from that wrong conclusion, its still twice as lucky as the luckiest run of literally billions. Is that not already suspicious to you? And then factor in the actual difference....no, it's literally not even feasible.

lmaooo

0:44

@@bonk4225 yeah it is funny

@@santosgonzalez3443 nice one bro

@@nicholasgeere5125 thanks bro

Not changed to 100%, just you can manipulate RNG

You might need obsidian or strings or fire potions

@@falquicao8331 everyone would just set them to 100% anyway, so why not just make it official

@@falquicao8331 Even then manipulating RNG in minecraft is incredibly hard as far as I know.

@@someonethatisntfunny1622 That entirely depends on what you are manipulating. Easy things like droprates are not difficult to modify, but things like world generation are much, much more complicated like you said.

Just as lame as claiming all as /s

HAAHAHAH

Did dream really say that? 😂

i think i ve heard it before, Dream did not said this, but i think some famous speedrunner tried this

@@ninjagaro. its meta to the dude who just tried to fake his blind speedrun. His apology was "I was merely pretending"

He could have increased the odds to 11.25% roughly and the math would have still slightly worked in his favour. It's that 3* increase that did him in.

Yeah like Karl said the better you are at a game the better you are at cheating in the game.

Paraphrasing what Karl has said in a video, playera better at their games can get away with cheating much more easily. It is why proof is extremely important at the top level of speedruns (and most other things tbf).

yeah, but... were they all famous Minecraft guy who does the funny for my 14 year old brain?

nice you understood karl's point and reiterated it!

"Why would you cheat if you're a top speedrunner?" is actually a logical fallacy, specifically a false cause fallacy in that it concludes that skilled players have no reason to cheat. It's also technically a argumentum ad verecundiam fallacy as well. This second one comes into play because the above statement is putting absolute trust in the speedrunner's morality as if it is linked to their skill and mastery of game.

Speedrunning has been around for a long time and they are VERY adamant about keeping things right, especially after some of the more egregious cheated runs back in the day. Goldeneye specifically had a longstanding veteran speedrunner get caught splicing a run and they outright removed all of his records as none of them could be accurately verified due to how they were captured (i.e 2000-era VHS tapes and whatnot). The speedrunning community is honestly fantastic. If you haven't already, both Karl Jobst (the dude who made the video cheese watched) and Rwhitegoose have some fantastic videos on cheated runs, drama and other things like that in the speedrunning community.

One aspect I do NOT like about Speedrun dot com is their flipflopping over requiring live streamed runs or not

@@Arcticun rwg also got caught cheating himself didn't he? Iirc he has been quite open about it too

@@lostsanityreturned Yup, way back when he wanted to get out of speedrunning as he felt it had too much of an impact on his life. IIRC he was around 16 - 17, he has a video regarding it I believe.

they stood their ground because they are to stupid to admit they were wrong

This is the only comment I see with a heart. What's your secret?

@@konstantinrokossovsky5740 it’s uh, not.

He is not the king, he is the absolute legend

why tho. he told chat not to be on his ass. as he is a legit runner. i was like dude what. u just called him out. then in a live chat he goes. yeah people are all wrong. u just got lucky.

Who r u quoting

Dream, probably

@@maxdavis7722 the 'blindfolded mario 64 speedrun' guy, probably.

I knew that guy was an idiot when I saw him streaming on Facebook and he was talking about making an apology video and someone said all you have to do is be honest and tell the truth. and he said I am telling the truth it was fake from the start. I knew he was a fool right from there

Thats literally every speedrunner when they get caught and can't plead denial anymore.

According to Dream the third party is a professor who wanted to remain anonymous. Not forever, but for a certain amount of time. I could believe that, seeing how people would try to contact him left and right, so he’d rather wait with that until after the holidays or something

@@torrix_4595 If that was a legit professor, then man Dream should get a refund because oh boy that paper. If I submitted a report like that in college, my prof would have kicked me out of the classroom lmao

@@IceFireofVoid i have not read it. Have no idea how legit it is or not. Just saying what I’ve heard

@@torrix_4595 it’s essentially a paper, a really unmotivated high school student would write up, knowing after graduation he’s just going into the family business and not pursuing his education further.

Which is funny because when people were bring up that people on reddit were proving said stats wrong. Dreams defenders were making fun of people on reddit and not the annomous professor.

Consecutively would mean you multiply probabilties. The odds of winning every lottery consecutively are likely >1/10^300 (That’s like picking the right atom out of a universe similar to ours that is contained in an atom, which is contained by a universe in an atom, 4 layers deep)

@@purrplaysLE and Dream just said "bet"

That's like wasting your natural 20s on simple diplomacy rolls to flirt with the barmaid instead of critical hits against the evil archmage!

he doesn't need to, he's made bank from youtube

@@purrplaysLE consecutively doesnt always mean you multiple the probabilities but multiplying the probabilities does always mean it is consecutive/at the same time. You multiple the probabilities because they are consecutive and independent. Something can be consecutive and dependent. Also you put a greater than sign when you should have put a less than sign. Also your math is just way off there are 1600 lotteries a year in the US and hes 21 so there would be 33600 lotteries in his life and a 1/3.5 million chance to win a single lottery or 1/20 to get any prize, so it would be (1/3500000)^33600 to win every grand prize or (1/20)^33600 to win any prize, the probability of this happening is so small we consider it zero. I pulled all of this from a simple google search and I've only taken 2 stat classes in college so it might not be accurate.

If he ever takes the videos down you know he’s covering his tracks further!

So can everybody else thats technically advanced

@@semisolaire5866 exactly, so it isn't hard to imagine he could've gave himself an advantage this way.

@@claylanhart1154 that may be true but I still stand by what I said. I’ve seen the video and it’s very informative on explaining his challenges but also explains how he can manipulate the game. If he takes them down now the timing is just too coincidental and just him covering his tracks.

@@classicclaudia he actually showed the code to the moderators and there wasnt anu modification at all. You could also see when wss the last time he edited it if he edited it, so he didnt modify the game.

Same

He is a great storyteller and writer

I'm so happy for you! At least now there will be someone enjoying his adds

@@alexgagnon379 man's gotta make money if u wanna keep hearing his magical voice talk about cheaters

@@SaltyShaun Seriously I get it even though I find 'em annoying, intrucive and counter productive concerning the video content. But that's just my opinion. Glad to know some people enjoy these adds 👍 if you say you also just skip the add parts in Karl's videos, i swear...

He hired him from a sketchy website

from that point of view i agree with not revealing the identity of the third party. is the internet we are talking about, we all know how many shit the astrophysicist is going to take from "the haters" whether the math is correct or not

I sent an email to Photoexcitation, the website he hired. I asked them to reveal the author because we can’t blindly trust any paper on the internet. They say that the paper “was written by a Ph. D from Harvard” while providing no evidence. They told me to believe the paper because “the author is an expert”. So basically they told me to believe fake news. If the author is not important then they are telling us to believe any bullshit on the internet as long as the person or people behind claim to be an expert in the field. Then they started a huge argument with me through emails, that’s something a serious company will never do. Edit: typos

@@Mingura666 Even if they did provide his credentials, it should not mean anything. Nobody should believe someone based solely on the fact that "he is an expert" or "he is from Harvard". That's called an argument from authority and it has no scientific value. Being "ancient", being "natural", being "popular", being "exotic", being "an expert" are fallacies that don't have their place in a scientific debate, only one things matters: the facts. Experts make mistakes all the time, that's why in science, there is a process called peer review. When a scientist produces a paper and wants it to be published, he has to explain his entire process in great details, make it available so that anyone can try to reproduce the results and see if there is not any bias in the experiment. If others can't reproduce the results or if experimentation bias is found, the paper can't be published. In this case, the analysis done by the astrophysicist has been reviewed by many statisticians and universally criticized for containing massive errors. Basically, he took the original analysis (which contains the naive statistic interpretation and then applies the bias correction) and applied the bias correction a second time.

@@Mingura666 Even if they did provide his credentials, it should not mean anything. Nobody should believe someone based solely on the fact that "he is an expert" or "he is from Harvard". That's called an argument from authority and it has no scientific value. Being "ancient", being "natural", being "popular", being "exotic", being "an expert" are fallacies that don't have their place in a scientific debate, only one things matters: the facts. Experts make mistakes all the time, that's why in science, there is a process called peer review. When a scientist produces a paper and wants it to be published, he has to explain his entire process in great details, make it available so that anyone can try to reproduce the results and see if there is not any bias in the experiment. If others can't reproduce the results or if experimentation bias is found, the paper can't be published. In this case, the analysis done by the astrophysicist has been reviewed by many statisticians and universally criticized for containing massive errors. Basically, he took the original analysis (which contains the naive statistic interpretation and then applies the bias correction) and applied the bias correction a second time.

Society oppresses speedrunners

That doest make any sense

"We live in a society, of gamers"

is a little to late now

so glad i unsubscribed 😓

HOLY

Tbh I get the vibe most of them think he cheated, even his friends like antvenem are outright saying that. They're just trying not to burn bridges which is the smart play honestly.

Well I'm really disappointed that he cheated, I do think that the rest of his speed run are legit. And I also enjoy his other videos. So we'll I was glad that he was exposed because what he did was wrong. I don't think he deserves to be canceled.

@not tellin while i agree that could be a factor it could also be because dream is still going to have some clout even after all this so them wanting the indirect benifits they can get still being friends with him could also effect their decision.

@not tellin Yeah I think he unfollowed antvenem after his video.

@B.J theres nothing wrong with makong videos people will click on if it's not low quality or misleading imo.

Yeah and the stans know where Dream lives, so that that last bit is going to be literal

Yeah and the stans are so brain dead they refuse to accept it they been harassing geosquare by making fake accounts of him and making fun of him it's disgusting geosquare has already talked about his anxiety

@@DedzixYT such crybabies

@@DedzixYT Yeah I'm not even surprised. The stans will do anything to protect their idol because they just refuse to except the truth. The sad truth here is that neither Dream or his stans will care in the end.

@@laggory and its even worse cause dream encourages this shit with his stans posts

When did he ever say "I dont know how to make mods"? he literally gives examples of how he COULDV'E modded it in his response video

@@4bidn1 in his first response paper...

ru-vid.com/video/%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BE--MYw9LcLCb4.html at 10:30

He makes plugins not mods. It's a different thing

@@JettPistol plugins are literally server side mods

he allways was a absolute legend

He's just speed running the video.

So basically you're saying that he didn't get the world record because of bad luck. Underneath a video about how he got too much luck.

@@veno2195 I guess? Theres just a ton of evidence to show that basically all of Dream's data doesn't add up. I think he cheated, yes.

@@veno2195 yes but he was about to get the world record from someone who hadn't cheated, if they had cheated as well who knows what the wr time would be

@@veno2195 whats funny is fura understated dreams luck his seed was from what i can tell pretty great and he was on world record pace but one of his ender pearls broke so he had to get more pearls and even after that set back got 4th place

@@veno2195 Yeah that just makes it funnier. Didn't even cheat properly lmao

@@nocturnaldivision yeah but if this keeps up they won't be able to just ignore it

I would say this is just Dream's problem only and no one else should get involved (unless they get involved themselves), but yeah the biggest problem is that he's not admitting anything and it makes him so much more deceiving than if he would've just told the truth.

It's like, he cheated, I can forgive that if he owned up to it. If he had said something like, "yeah. Changed it because I was sick of runs dying in the nether", most people would understand that, even though it's still shitty, and his reputation wouldn't be as sullied as it is now. But with his behavior since the allegations were first made, I'm just continually losing respect for him. He's behaving like a petulant child, and he continues to try to lie and deceive people about what actually happened. These are far more egregious than him cheating at block game.

Yea but the only person who knows if he really cheated is dream so if he actually didnt cheat why would he say he did.

@@That_Guy_Nick If he sincerely didn't cheat, why did he hire an "Astostatistics professor", and left their name out? Why is there all this evidence against him that's saying he mathematically cheated? Its not like these people want Dream to have cheated, their just bringing facts. Why is it difficult for him to bring proper evidence of him not cheating? If Dream really didn't cheat, why is behaving this way about it? I understand the pressure, but its just making him more and more suspicious.

You see, winning the lottery *twice* is about 4 in 10 billion, yet people repeatedly managed to do it. That's only twice! There are people with 5+ and even 7 Wins. Math would agree that it is impossible for a Human to make it, yet it's been done.

@@lolly166541 4 in 10 billion but not 1 in 20 sextillion

@@lolly166541 you realize there’s diffrent levels of lottery’s like there’s lottery’s that only sell 100-1000 tickets, it’s not always 1out of like 5 million

@Lo Fell Because it is way out the expected range of the pearl drop variance, with dream's being out of the 99th percentile of that range. Also, the 7.5 trillion chance is the possibility of any runner getting that many lucky runs in a row since he got that luck consistently across the six streams he did after he took a break from 1.16.

@Lo Fell The mod team made a paper explaining their method. Go and read it.

Matt Parker (Stand-up maths) Looked into Dreams odds and showed how unlikely it is to happen. He created a number he calls The ten billion human second century which means that 10 billion humans do the same thing every second for 100 years which equals 3*10^19 and no one of the 10 billion humans would get Dreams luck.

Actually that's pretty fair, if he just said that and admitted to it, if that's what he actually did, then we wouldnt hate him atm

Honestly, that's the first thing I thought of. If he boosted the rates for his manhunts so the nether didn't take as long

If that was the case and he was honest, he would have immediately removed the run and explain that he changes the drop rate for his videos and messed up. He didn't though, he went with it, and argued otherwise, this is not what an honest person does...

If I remember correctly, in Geosquare's video the mods did give him a chance to say exactly that. They gave him an out early into this whole drama.

Honestly this is what I think happened

Professional, kind, smart and really good at what he does. He is easy to love.

@@kekke2000 literally this, him and ludwig are the kindest content creators i can think of and i find them really entertaining. plus cheese calls us babe and that’s pretty cool 😎

There are plenty of people that are just writing off this dream cheating stuff by saying it doesn't matter, as if they're okay with cheating occurring on any platform which is just stupid People who say this is just a video game probably don't even make half of what dream makes in raw money and don't even realize it yet Also I feel like Alot of the people who dismiss this as something that doesn't matter are dream fans who can't believe he cheated and just don't wanna face the reality that he did, so they hide behind not caring about the situation so they don't have to admit it

That voice doe

Wait till the dragon fight gets revamped

I don't think so. I don't think anyone cares he's cheated. It's no joke he's talented at the game. He's entertaining. I doubt people watch him for his speed runs.

I 100% believe he cheated, and I understand why you would cheat. If he would have come out and admitted it from the start and apologized and gave his actual reasoning (tired of not having good rng) I'd still have respect for him today.

That's statistically impossible.

its higher than 15%?

It's alright Technoblade still wrecks him in pvp

@@oxstr8upgreekxo730 dude he couldnt even 10-0 smh

@@crcker3841 didn't technoblade like 23v2 or something in a big tournament

wait… really? i have never considered how much money he makes

Based

And what exactly has his bank balance to do with that? That you bring that up just shows that you don't care about speedrunning, but just about drama.

it's 1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000

Lmao

Yes but after you kidnap his children, where are you going to put them?

How long did the maths take to figure that out?

@@Fox8ball. hardest part is gathering the data. Compiling it into a program to get a probability isnt terrible work.

@@Fox8ball. that's just simply solving the equation 2*10^22=(3.75*10^6)^n Solve for n. It's going to be somewhere around 4 or 5 depending on what lottery you play.

i dont like it when people compare winning the lottery to this... if i buy all the lottery tickets then i am guaranteed to win... you can change the odds you have for yourself by buying more tickets. what dream did is beyond just winning the lottery. it is impossible.

@@Photek24 the assumption is based on 1 ticket for the lottery comparison.

I think it was only his 1.16 runs that were in question. His 1.15 runs are still up

We forgetting Pewdiepie Minecraft

@@IceFireofVoid pewdiepie didn’t contribute nearly as much as Dream according to statistics. And it wasn’t just pewdiepie it was mcm too.

And that mathematician was wrong in his calculations. So much for being an Astrophysicist.

Why would people care? If you have a look, his videos about speedrunning are not even viewed as much as his normal videos. Conclusion: A lot of people are not there because of speedruns, therefore they don't need to care.

He has a pinned comment on the video he made about the run itself, explaining why he removed it.

Yes.

Hey, you said the thing...

yeah these are great

@Stickamation Studio They do not :)

How did dream cheat

@Felix Co. my point is that while getting that lucky once is sketchy but possible, getting those odds consistently over many hours of attempts is nearly impossible. if dream hadn't streamed those attempts and only submitted the single run, his odds would be suspiciously good but entirely possible, and the run probably would have been accepted.

@@Seeker118 haha droptables go brrrrrrrrrr

Is that it you made it sound like he played secretly on creative mode or used a mod to make. Himself immune to damage

Is this a joke? I can't tell

@@Mahfy3w The framing of the title itself makes me uncomfortable

@@tyvamakes5226 he is a pro speedrunner?

What are you implying? He achieved multiple world records over the years in the (previously) most popular game in speed running of all time, one actually at a live event, in 2020.

@@annyeong5810 I'm just saying... that using 'pro speedrunner' isn't as effective as 'WR speedrunner',

Cheese pinned a comment on his original reaction video explaining that.