if Russia wants "peace" - why are they already planning to relocate the stateowned miltary-plants into the east? Thats a longterm investment, which indicates that Russia just wants a ceasefire-peace, to prepare for a long long war in the future. Putin already signed the plans of relocation.
@@INSIDERUSSIA Russian Peace terms. 1. Either Russia keeps the ground it has gained or back to 2014 borders. 2. Ukraine can't join NATO 3. All economic sanctions are lifted. Again, this is a guess from a random RU-vidr.
Yeah, that’s the problem because Putin will insist his own Peace Plan and if Ukraine dont agree he will tell world “You see Zellensky is not interested in Peace he prefers War”.
We all pray for peace🙏 Russia needs to leave Ukraine and quit sending their POW's back with missing body parts!!! Putin still needs to Prosecuted for all his war crimes.
This is my take on Russian economy. Putin has basically killed hughe parts of the labour that generates productivity and money for the country and it's people. It's not just oil and gas thats is affected or crippeled. It's all manufacturing that's not connected to something that goes bang and get's destroyed in Ukraine in a pop of smoke and fire. I'd guess that even farming and services are negatively affected. In short. All sectors are negatively affected of the war except defence industry that employs at least 20% of the population. This investment won't generate income unless Putler winns and can steal and sell Ukrainian assets for decades forward. The demand of Russian defence material has gone down in the world. It turned out to be highly in efficent in most cases. At the same time most cost remains high in Russia with the war cost as a cherry on top. You can change the budget but you can not change the actual need of maintenance, healthcare, education and what not and at some point it comes back and bites you. He has effectively removed some 7.5 miljon productive people from his economy and turned them to a cost (3.5 miljon in defence industry, 3 miljon left the country and 1 miljon are in Ukraine dying) or at least a lack of income. This is a hughe chunk of the driver of economy. Many of them will never return to Russia since they are dead or have started new lives outside of Russia. Who want's to return to a place that will be a economic mess 50-80 years forward? There is no population growth in Russia. In other words there are no real drivers for growing economy. Russian retired people are not big spenders historically and dead soldiers stay a cost long after they are gone. Russian economy is in a decline that will stay much longer than normal. Russia have no culture of good economic practice, no culture of good leadership for productivity, quality, people management and no culture of wide industrial developement. It has always been like that. Who wants to invest in Russia with the current history of seizing of companys and other assets. Putin would have to pay back all that he took with interest before any western money returns and what is the incentive for China? Land? Political influence? They have their own economic proplems. What about war reparations? If there will be peace it will not be 100% on Putins terms. He is not in an position to make demands. If the war continues one more year he might be toppeled in an classic Russian manner with a bullet in the back of his head due to increased internal problems. When the snow ball starts to roll downhill it goes slow at first' with momentum it speed and size grows and so does it's negative effect. Russia economic snowball has not reached it full effect yet. It's just started but it's to late to stop. 😂😂 Russia is economically to be compared with African states from here on forward. 😂😂.
Russia has 500 000 men in Ukraine. That’s only recent. From the beginning of the war Ukraine outnumber the forces that Russia committed. Now it’s changed. Russia gets about 25000 new volunteers a month. They are now about to demobilise some of their troops as they have enough As far as economy goes Russian economy is growing according the IMF while western countries are in trouble. The attacks on oil installations hasn’t had much of an effect and Russia is still exporting large hamounts of oil and gass.
You are absolutely wrong, go play some victoria before making dumb ass statements. Russia can pretty much self sustain itself with the exception of one resource, which they have trading partners for that do not sanction them nor ever will. They can cut off all ties externally without issue. And additionally Ukraine is being more and more hated in Europe. We suffer for their idiotic leader being unable to fucking talk it out. Real mature. And before you go crying "Invasion" stop drinking the titty milk from mommy media all day and do some actual research , those same damn outlets were reporting different before this "War" started.
@@chadhaire1711 "Crimea and Donbass VOTED to leave Ukraine and join Russia" yea, WHILE BEING OCCUPIED! in such circumstances the voting's could EASILY be fabricated whit out no one knowing.
Pretty much agree the leadership has to change and the direction of the money for the people.. the military globally is to large, China is in the same place and deep pockets for now.. Hopefully they turn the page for peace, they will be icesolated soon after it starts we'll see how far there money goes to feed them...a large standing military is expensive and doesn't grow food like we can US.. Oil is a big question?? As well as food we have both
They don't understand that, despite it facing them every day of their lives, or they are happy being poorer and having a map with lots of uninhabitable territory which belongs to them on it.
The only thing Ruzzian "leadership" really needs is a combat-boot-wearing foot in the a**... I do feel sorry for the Russian people, I am always in awe of their ability to endure, improvise, and to make the best of a tough situation. But they keep letting these thugs "lead" them so they are also passively complicit in this self inflicted catastrophe. Still, they have lost their sons to Putin's madness so I think they have paid for it.
_Russia is now one twentieth of one percent larger than it was in 2022, and all it cost them is half a million lives, and the respect of most of the world._ 😨 ⚒ - j q t -
@ckh2815 Except for when the USSR fell. The thing is I'm not optimistic about Russia either, but...as a guy from a former Warsaw pact country, living behind the "Iron Curtain", I can tell you that the only situation we were able to join NATO and EU and escape the firm grip of Moscow was chaos in Moscow. Which happened once, so can happen the second time.
Even if Ukraine is de-occupied it leaves the world - the West - in trouble. The problem then won't be de-occupying and rebuilding Ukraine. It will be coming to terms with Russian revanchism which will certainly lead the country to rearm and have a rematch.....
Konstantin, I agree with many of your points made in this video, but big picture, I do not agree that we are close to peace. Russia overall is not yet feeling enough pain in order to make the concessions necessary for a lasting peace in Ukraine. In my view, there will not be the opportunity for peace until Russia begins to collapse politically and internally. Hopefully, that will be relatively soon, and in that case you may be pretty much right. But I suspect this will take another 12-18 months to play out.
Russia is right now planning to relocate its militaryplants behind the Ural, out of reach of Ukraine and western weapons. That says it all - there will be no real peace. It will be a fake peace. They already preparing for a longer war.
For the West, it would not really be a bad loss, as NATO still have got Sweden and Finland in their ranks exactly because of the actions of Putin and that's a major diplomatic victory for the West without even being directly involved in the war, also managing to ruin the russian economy and army for a lot of years in the process.... but yeah, failing to protect Ukraine from Russia and not making Ukraine join NATO would be a loss. But still, for NATO, it would be a smaller loss compared to getting Sweden and Finland in the alliance and making Russia poorer and weaker militarily. The major loss would just be for Ukraine, especially because it would mean they could be attacked again by Russia after a few years...
The West is happy to have new members in Nato, but that's not what we are playing for. Our victory is the message to potential conquerors that the age of might makes right is over. Humanity will have law and empathy. Anything less is a total loss.
I pray you are correct. I am an American living in Denmark who worked for the UN in Ukraine, central Asia, E. Europe, Russia, Belarus. What you are saying makes sense.
Peace is impossible for as long as a single Russian soldier is inside Ukraine. Putin has forced Russia to war, and that leads us down this dark path. "Perhaps this is unavoidable, we didn't cause the failure of the Russian state, Putin did" Jake Broe
@@mechatron2775 Absolutely. It's a country rich in resources with a large population. But it's trapped in a cycle of governing that inhibits it's potential. Centuries of a sometimes uncaring and indifferent monarchy. Then generations of the oppressive and cruel Soviet regime followed by a slight glimmer of hope which is being repressed by backward thinkers such as Putin. I don't understand men who willingly throw their fellow citizens into wars only to die and gain what? Men who cause nothing but misery and pain with their power, selfishness and misguided ideals.
No It depends on who will be in charge in Russia after Putin. After Lenin came Stalin. Sombody like Stalin will not be the solution for future Peace. Will be there another Gorbatsjov? I hope so. But hope is not a solution or plan for peace.
@@vanyadavydov2403in your head only. Look at his economy. Shameful. Only the older Russians are ok with him. He forces elections to go his way. Putin is cruel. He doesn't care about humanity. Who's the moron?
You do know that in order to surrender suing for peace (aka surrendering is part of the process). Now we have two kinds conditional and unconditional surrender. Conditional is with stipulations made by the losing side and unconditional is were the winning side puts all the conditions
The term 'negotiate' is perhaps misunderstood. For example, Germany sued for peace, but there were negotiated settlements. The terms of a negotiated peace with Russia might be along the lines of all territory back and a demilitarized zone in the way of Korea.
Who is going to pay reparations for the total devastation within Ukraine? I mean not only in cities but in small towns and villages, Ukrainian citizens murdered, houses pillaged, all by Russian soldiers. I know pictures of this were not shown to Russian people, but we in the west were. And what about returning all the stolen children. Where are they and are they safe. Will they be returned? Peace sounds wonderful but there are other concerns involved besides the succession of hostilities. To have the answers to the above and other concerns will be mind boggling. Will Russian citizens be able to handle this?
@@MargaretWBlock kids have been taken away from conflict zones for safety . The rhetoric of Russia stealing kids are the same level of the ghost of kieve stories .
> reparations The loser will pay. So it seems now that it is Ukraine will pay if they will continue. Also I believe the ones who used Ukraine as a pawn and promised to support, but instead prolonged the war with other empty promises about NATO.
@@huskywr240vlad how many times have i told you, with yhis crowd there’s no point gaslighting them. its clear your untrainable. my office monday, ive got a new job for you and you need to collect your stormz uniform… ive already got your replacement who will have to work hard to be as useless as you have been.
@@AdrianusTaroreh-cj9ip In 2014 the CIA organized the coup d'état putting Poroshenko and then Zelensky in power. As soon as Zelensky was in power he banned all opposition parties (like Hitler), killed journalists to hide his war crimes while he had civilians killed in Donbass by the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, now he governs with an expired mandate and prohibits new elections, which are useless anyway since only his party exists. He has people forcibly taken from the streets to send them to the front, those who try to escape or protest are killed. Is anything else needed to send that criminal to trial?
Putin has instructed his government to submit proposals for the relocation of state-owned companies from Moscow to remote regions of the Russia - source is the kremlins website, says United24 -a pro ukraine media . my russian is to bad to check it, but I wouldnt wonder if its true, cause it maks total sense.
Sry Historicly russia always negotiates for peace to catch its breath and reinvades a couple years later. True peace can only be achieved if Ukraine's territory is completly ruturned and joins Nato.
usa is paying for this war. This was there problem telling zelinsky not to sign peace deal and we will pay for the next 10 years including their social security and weapons and rebuilding and paying to keep their businesses going and the other part of the country parties,
Amnesty for Putin will be part of the Peace Treaty, unfortunately, or Putin will NEVER sign it. Of course, Putin may be overthrown, which will permit his prosecution.
Russia has Magnums and Persil from Unilever, Monarch Coffee from Jacobs, and Nesquik and twixes from Nestle. Boycott these companies. They make Russians feel nothing is wrong.
You should boycott Ukrainian pro-US puppet government and choose the ones who will provide sane politics, like consider the real situation and work for a future for Ukrainian people, not send them to die in this meat grinder. Ukraine can't just move from Russia. Ukraine must consider Russian interests despite what government in power in Russia. It is not about Putin, democracy and other beautiful empty words. It's about world powers and global politics. Imperial interests of the US, Russia, EU, China etc. They won't disappear. Ukraine had to find balance between them. Now the current Ukrainian government has failed by claiming that they will join NATO. No one will tolerate an enemy state in a border. Nor the US. Negotiations and negotiations. Accept some Russian terms and follow them.
Putin chose to invade Ukraine. 🇺🇦 He put his greed and ambition over the lives of the people. The cost to the people of Ukraine is something that has brought me to tears. Do we have a reason to feel dislike for Russia, yes. We must stand up to bullies, if you don’t it only gets worse. Sending hugs to the people of Ukraine from Canada 🇨🇦
@@muckle8 So if you are inferring that I’m blind and this is the only comment you think is relevant, not taking it seriously. If you have a point to make then explain your comment, otherwise I’m thinking you must be either ignorant or just trying to make yourself feel important. Not working
Putin didn’t choose to invade Ukraine at all , he was forced into it , he tried for 15 long years to resolve the issues made by Kiev but was stonewalled at every juncture - 2 military coups tried by the CIA / zelensky forced him to invade to try and stop the bloodshed.
@@muckle8 ok then share what your research has come up with. I’m not so closed minded that I won’t listen to other peoples ideas. Please share your observation.
I once heard a very good answer to the following question. How can a nation with many warmongers get away from imperialism? If this country experiences a catastrophe through its imperialism. Like my country Germany after the Second World War or Japan. That's not a nice answer, but I think it's largely correct and could also apply to Russia.
@@eliannafreely5725 Yes, though in Russia's case they did it to themselves by effectively declaring war on the West via Ukraine. You could say that Carthage did the same by rearming in secret, I suppose, but I think the cases are very different.
Hi Konstantin! The facts you mentioned seemed logical, and the peace in Ukraine may come in the near future. However, in my view, it's after the presidential elections in the US. The peace treaty should stipulate, that Russia will retreat from the territories it has occupied, Ukraine's path to becoming a NATO member should be set in motion and Russia should pay war reparations to Ukraine. The idea some Russians have that everything comes to normal after the peace treaty is signed is stupid and ridiculous! After invading a sovereign country that wasn't clearly a threat to them, killing and torturing thousands of innocent civilians, and destroying the majority of Ukraine's infrastructure, they think everything will come to normal very soon? That's cuckoo!
@@DieyoungDiefast Ukraine just had to stay neutral. Openly talking about joining NATO while being on the border with Russia is similar to Cuba and Mexico having a talk to build Russian military bases for example. You are free to apply, but you are not free of consequences for your actions.
@@daxcafdvaad-o7z how is seeking protection after getting invaded in 2014 supposed to be a reason for war they stayed neutral all right and if Russia really uses this as a reason, then why don’t they attack the United States ? Them damn Yankees haven’t stayed neutral for a long time.
I have lived in Kyiv since June of 2023, volunteering. One thing I do find interesting is that the air raid alerts have become less and less. We used to have at least 3-4 everyday, now some days there are none or maybe one. Since the Russians sent the barrage of missile's that destroyed the Kindergarten, it has been relatively quiet.
Only because Russia expended most of their load (all missiles fired are now freshly produced) or are holding some back in an attempt to strike bases with newly arrived F-16s. They’re not attempting any de-escalation.
@@vladzoubenko9104OK, Ivan. There is no fighting in Kyiv, but they’re stationing troops in hospitals and schools in Kyiv? Makes a lot of sense. Did they station troops next to ALL of the more than 1,500 hospitals and medical facilities that have been damaged or destroyed since 2022?
Navalny was not the savior you think. He was a Russian Nationalist. He just wanted to do it through peaceful and legal ways unlike Putin who does everything by the sword.
I don't think Ukraine can give up territory. I don't think Ukraine can be kept out of NATO. I don't think Russia can be forgiven quickly. It's going to be like in Germany. A change of government and politics has to come.
@@robopalo8041 Yes. He sounds so exited that the US will force Ukraine to give its territory to Russia (he said that nobody will ask what Kyiv wants, negotiations will be between the US and Russia). What a wonderful peace for Ukraine! This episode was the most depressing thing I have seen since February 2022. Depressing, because I suspect he is right.
@@vaatajaI don't think west will force Ukraine to give up land. At least not successfully. As for Konstantin, well I hadn't been watching him that long, perhaps a couple of months with any regularity, but I'm starting to have doubts. First was some interview on another channel where he said he disbelieved Russia would invade Ukraine in 22 because they are their brothers and such which is a bizarre thing to say when Russia was already occupying their land. And lately it seems like he repeats more and more Russian talking points. When I saw his Livestream title about Harris my first thought was that FSB got his family. He claims he didn't compare them and claimed everybody else for misunderstanding him, when he literally did. It looked to me like pushing Russian narration under disguise of caution against ending up like it. And no I'm not American, but I do see which candidate would be better for Kremlin.
@@robopalo8041 I don't think he's turning russian again. He's been quite outspoken against Russia and he actually said that he doesn't believe that Russia can save face at all a bit further into the analysis.
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂I GUESS THE NEXT STEP IS FOR HIS HIGHNESS ZELENSKY TO FLY TO 🇺🇸 AND TELL HIS SPONSORS THAT THEY NOW ONLY NEED 70BN $ MORE TO ONCE AND FOR ALL SHUT DOWN AND COMPLETE THIS MISSON😅😅😅😂😂😂😂
For me, there are some things that MUST NOT BE NEGOTIATED. 0/ ALL kidnapped children must be returned to their families in Ukraine. No Russification. 1/ ALL prisoners must be exchanged, including those who died in captivity. 2/ Russia must leave ALL occupied territory, including Crimea. 3/ Ukraine MUST join NATO. That is the only way Ukraine can have security. (The Budapest memorandum was a failure because Russia broke the agreements, and the west was weak in reacting to the Crimean invasion .) 4/ NATO should post troops on Ukraine’s borders to act as a tripwire against a repeat invasion. 5/ Frozen Russian assets MUST NOT be released. They should eventually be given to Ukraine for reconstruction. 6/ I advocate NOT lifting sanctions until Putin is handed over for war crimes trial at The Hague, or he falls out of a window.
Konstantin, your assertions about empathy were very moving. "Russians exchanged for Russians; it's right there before your eyes." Indeed! I laughed a bit at that; it wasn't obvious to me until you said it. I submit that the 25% increase in signing bonuses may not be keeping pace with inflation. 🙂 The larger point is of course the possibility of peace. "Putin has probably known that he has lost since the early weeks of the invasion of Ukraine." I completely agree with this. We rely on you for analysis of the Russian information space, and the signs do seem to be there. As you noted, President Zelensky's messaging is changing too. I don't know whether to be cynical or optimistic. On one hand, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, Poles, the Czech, Romanians, and most importantly, the Ukrainians themselves know exactly what a revanchist Russia means. The citizens of these countries know it in their very bones. They understand that the wrong peace means a frozen war, a state of repose in the sense that repose is a period of rest before resumption of conflict. In such a state, Ukraine would have to figure out how to rebuild without its heavy industries, which are in occupied territory. Foreign investment in rebuilding infrastructure would be dampened by the reality that war will resume. Ukraine would not only have to rebuild, it would have to rebuild for war. The certainty of resumption of war would distort the character of reconstruction away from what is best economically and socially and toward military necessity: economically necessary projects would not be built near the frozen border, military expenditure would drag heavily on a recovering and reduced GDP, etc. The wrong peace leads to the wrong recovery. But this isn't our decision. Ukrainians decide what sort of peace is acceptable. Yes, partners could force the position. We could threaten to suspend military aid entirely unless Ukraine signs a horrible treaty. We could betray the Ukrainian people, abandon them to being slowly absorbed by a genocidal and dictatorial colonial power. I sometimes fear that we will. Putin is absolutely counting on this. He is counting on keeping the Oblasts he's holding. His survival depends on Crimea remaining Russian. Russia "won" the Finnish Winter War because Russia GOT something from it. The casualties get whitewashed: "We won! We got bigger!" The exact same thing will happen Ukraine if Putin gets his way. President Zelensky floated the idea of holding a referendum on whether to negotiate. My question, and hopefully a question on such a referendum, is, under which terms? The US Presidency is contested and Putin is counting on a particular outcome, but the polls are increasingly favoring an administration that will be Ukraine-friendly. Of equal importance is that the Congress may change to that Ukraine-friendly majority as well. Even if the US just resumes what it was doing consistently before the Congressional gridlock, that's an unsustainable rate of loss for Russia. The Soviet stocks are running out. If partners were to change the narrative from, "For as long as it takes" to, "Whatever Ukraine needs to win," then the war would end when and where Ukraine decides. That's an entirely different sort of negotiation. Like it or not, America sets the tenor for military support to Ukraine. I'm not disparaging partner contributions at all. I'm embarrassed by my country; this is an obvious anti-colonial story that should resonate with EVERY American. We should be shoulder to shoulder with Britain, the Baltic States, Poland, and all the other clear-eyed realists whose military contributions are only outweighed by massive, sustained, and heartfelt demonstrations of solidarity with Ukrainians by their citizens. If Gabrielius Landsbergis were to replace Jens Stoltenberg, NATO would become a really interesting place. But like it or not, we set the tenor, and the last six months have been characterized by uncertainty from us. We're about to resolve that, and we may even screw up and do the right thing. An appetite for negotiation has been growing during this period of uncertainty, but it may not be time yet. Please bear with us while we sort ourselves out. Many, many of us are embarrassed by this, and we haven't taken our eyes off the objective.
Much as I want to believe you are right, I simply cannot imagine any peace terms that would be acceptable to both parties at this point. Hope I'm wrong, but I do fear that Carthage will have to be destroyed for peace to prevail..And that would at the very least mean that Putin has to go.
Yeah, I don't believe K is right, though he is pretty insightful in a lot of things concerning Ruzzia. But I cannot imagine any sides would accept give up Crimea. If Putin gives it up, he is dead. And I don't see him as a quitter.
@@TheBiggreenpig i can see UA signing for a Crimea military free and under Russia gov, return the rest of anexed and allow russian gas/oil pass for Hungary/Serbia
@@TheBiggreenpig Crimea is the cherry on top - the only reason for the taking the other oblasts was to secure land access to it - and the Azov Sea then becomes a Russian lake. So many oligarchs and regular Russians either 'own' stolen property there or take their holidays on the Black Sea coast. Putin can't just let it go - without a fight.
I react to the offer of peace between Russia's Putin and Ukraine's Zelenskyy in much the same light as king Theoden reacting to an offer of peace from Saruman. With pretty much the same words. Putin withdraws to tne pre-2014 lines. Putin and his inner circle arrested and delivered to the ICC in The Hague. Not negotiable beyond those terms.
No words will work from russia. Speak not comrade Putin, it is only actions that mean anything. Pull your army back. Satan is your thirst for territory, Satan is your desire for power, Satan is the need for control over others, dear Putin, you have aligned yourself with Satan.
So succinctly said. Ukrainians are committed to fighting to the last countryman, to remain independent. Putin wanted a quick smash and grab but it’s becoming more obvious that the future of Russia is becoming darker by the day and his “allies” are sucking him dry due to his self-inflicted quagmire. Quite the conundrum.
@@AnnemarieWilliamsMissMolly Meanwhile, Russia has lost every shred of respect it previously enjoyed, and is now dead to the people it dearly craves respect from
Thank you so much for keeping the world in touch with what is happening. I live in UK ,,Manchester. You are an amazing man keeping us all up to date and telling the truth. Take care my friend and let’s hope this war ends soon. May you have piece soon. May your god go with you.. Martin x
For peace to truly exist, the Russian Federation would have rewrite their constitution so Crimea, Kherson, Zapronesia, Donesk, and Luhansk are no longer part of the RF. Second, the RF would have account for all the missing Ukrainians, especially the women and children. This alone is a genocide/human-trafficking crime against humanity. Third, before sanctions are removed, reparations must be paid. The RF will agree to none of these conditions.
@@vladzoubenko9104 not with putin but russia will suffer under sanctions until they exist in 19th century conditions for the rest of the century. Russia will be forced out of Ukraine. So keep laughing and taking Putin's coin for as long as it lasts.
You are correct ... the RF will never agree ... that's why the RF must be dismantled and sent back to the history books on human misery . The territories of the RF need to be reconstituted with governments that rule by the will of the governed . Pretty sure that only comes with external rule of the territories ... gonna need to have Ukraine in charge till democracies are created and vetted .
I hope beyond hope you are right Konstanin. I hope & pray that you are right. For my family and all the people in Ukraine & Russia. Thank you for this message. This war needs to end. It never should have begun in the first place.. Tears are flowing as I write this.
Brother Konstantin, your enthusiastic optimism was the high point of my day today! After listening to your good news of the prisoner exchange and your upbeat opinions, supported by real clues of subtle changes in the Russian state propaganda mongers, my mind is churning like a snow storm of happy thoughts mixed with snowflakes of caution. The War has been in stalemate for too long. The Ukrainian army has been sustaining a steady trickle of killed and wounded while it continues to inflict debilitating losses on the Russians. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Army is very tired from the unending daily stresses of being outnumbered and outgunned. It has to gnaw away on morale and stamina. We marvel at how much adreniline and blood our Ukrainian friends have shed against the steady stream of fresh new Russian troops. It has been a miraculous display of courage and determination when one considers what a blow to morale it must have been to watch the US Congress bicker over authorizing more military aid to Ukraine. But, as you've pointed out, there are hopeful signs that cracks in Putin's resolve have begun to show. We've all had plenty of time over the past two years to speculate about just what a negotiated deal to end the war would look like. We must temper our elation over your optimistic projections of peace in the near future with the understanding that former KGB Colonel Putin is not by nature a trustworthy player. Consider that the positive signs in Russia that you enumerated might be part of an elaborate kabuki dance designed to lull Mr. Zelenski and his cabinet into a false sense of success, fattening them for the slaughter at the negotiating table. Soviet Russia had a well earned reputation for tactical dishonesty and elaborate subterfuge. I worry that an exhausted Ukraine could be vulnerable to Putin's potential trickery. You hinted about the possibility that Russia's Lavrov might offer the return to Ukrainian control of the Eastern oblasts, except Crimea, in exchange for a Korean-style armistice. It could be an indefinite cease fire during which Russia rebuilds and rearms its military for a new invasion while Ukraine relaxes its guard and the West becomes distracted with other international concerns. It could happen. I pray that it won't. Meanwhile let's enjoy what might only be a temporary improvement in Ukraine's fortunes while Kyiv keeps as much combat pressure on Russia, and the sanctions continue to damage Russia's weakening economy. 🙏🐻🇺🇦🇺🇲
Soviet Russia had a well earned reputation for tactical dishonesty and elaborate subterfuge. You need to study the beliefs and behaviour of the neo-consevatives in Washingtom. If you did, you'd get a master-class in tactical dishonesty and elaborate subterfuge starting with the Maidan revolution in 2014.
The biggest problem for Russia will be when the combatants return home and the real truth about their conditions,thier officers and lousy cheap equipment , someone will have to explain why and how they were defeated. The knives will be out.
True that all there 550.000 soldiers .that have died there mothers and fathers will be pretty angry at putin russia must be like a tinder box no matter how people are oppressed by fear .there comes a time when there anger overtakes there fear of putin and his henchmen .
This is the funny thing. They won't return home. They will stay on the Frontline until they are un-alived due to the battle And those that survive will get a nice load of lead into their skill to make sure that nobody tells the Russian people what is going on. That tactic has been in use since the times of the Tsar. "De*d Men tell no tales", is the Russian motto
True. But don’t forget the propaganda will convince postwar Russians that they were betrayed by the evil west. “They ganged up on poor little Russia. Don’t they understand we only wanted to reunite with our Ukrainian brothers? We Russians turned out to be such loving people that our soldiers didn’t really fight hard. They wanted to let Ukrainian adversaries live on. Yes, we Russians are just too nice.” Most Russians will buy it. Not at all, but most.
Russia is better at building their equipment at not having overpriced factories over charging. their equipment just as good as ours. where do you keep getting this info that Russia is inferior.
The solution is to copy Great Britain and China back in the day of imperialistic rule and Hong Kong. With Crimea consider to do a 25 to 50 year lease on a similar bases.. really both win .. but the Russian establishment will know it's a total loss and dream to fix it in the future. The Chinese will agree and persuade Russia to agree and explain the reality.
In Finland most have always known the true character of russia. That’s mostly because they attacked in 1939. It’s a long time ago but all this opened the old scars thanks to the little man in charge. I wont be seeing the change in my lifetime. Maybe in another 80 years or so.
the USA and Boris Johson pushed for this war. and USA is pushing for war with China to. after china they already have another war planned and on and on it goes.
This fairness and justice is only in your head. Others has another opinion. There are real politics. Ukraine is paying for it's stupid careless pro-US government.
Putin wants a legacy of greater-Russia and if he leaves Ukraine with Russian economy in tatters he will have to increase his personal security by 100x.
MY GREAT GREAT GRANDFATHER FOUGHT IN THE 1854/55 CRIMEAN WAR BEFORE HE CAME TO AUSTRALIA/NEW ZEALAND IN 1860. MY HOPE AND PRAYERS ARE FOR PEACE AND PROSPERITY IN THOSE REGIONS LET UNITY AND DEMOCRACY PREVAIL.
Also, I'm subscribed to the 3rd Assault Brigade of Ukraine, if you watch their latest video, then you know full well that the anger on that soldiers face near the beginning of the video "we will never forgive you".. relations between Ukraine and Russia are gone. Turn captions on for those who don't speak Ukrainian
I'm not a military person but regarding the arrival of the F-16's one comment that really struck home to me was "they will ensure the safety of the grain and other exports out of Ukraine". Yes I know they are needed for many functions also, but to me that is a long term effect for Ukraine standing on it's own two feet
Unfortunately, the US is ensuring the F-16s won’t make much difference by only giving them extremely short range HARM/AMRAAM missiles, short range AAM missiles, slow rolling pilot training, etc. It also won’t be until mid-2025 at earliest before Ukraine has more than a handful of F-16s.
The ability of the Russians to forget terrible things that they do will not make us forget. Z can be gone - but they have not repented. No end till Ukraine is liberated, war criminals pubished, and war reperations are made.
@swirvinbirds Russia went into Ukraine to stop ethnic Russian civilians being shelled everyday and to try and secure peace and security for Russia., Ukraine conspired with the devil in 2008 , USA has craved this war for over a century
What peace? When Russia says they are having military exercises using tactical nuclear weapons does that give you visions of peace. You mean Russia stopped training school children to fight? Videos say otherwise. Never confuse hope for peace as a method to predict the future.
@@denillefleming2942will they? it depends entirely what china, india, brazil, iran etc. want to do. soviet union collapsed because no one cared or had ability to support. but now china for example is very much see-sawing whether it wants to support russia and keep it as an ally against u.s. or does it want to just take what it want from russia now and then try fighting u.s. alone (with india and others if they accompany, but russia is the only one china can really count on in hating u.s while india, brazil are not so ideological in their west hate)
@@denillefleming2942 That sounds great in theory. In reality they have vast resources. And they are friends with other rogue regimes that can help them.
I was on a tour group of friends with Kazakhs, Russians and Ukrainians in Kyrgyzstan before соv!d. This war saw this international group of friends be torn apart. Can't even imagine how it has affected you and your family. You are right, it will be a generation before "everything will go back to normal" for the average Russian. So much generational family trauma has happened in the past few years. Russia has the biggest titanium reserves in the world. It and oil (heavy crude) will be it's main way to make money after the war. It's good to see some glimmer of hope with a prisoner exchange.
i can be wrong, but i would assume thats not what mondo meant, Konstantin. after all this time with Putler playing with peoples opinions, fears and hopes, I would think it is also a reasonable "gut-feeling" to be careful with our interpretations of any news we get from Russia? i would love to share your optimism - unfortunately for example this prisoner exchange could mean that Putler will just send his murderers onto new missions while taking new hostages again for future exchanges.
@@mondoenterprises6710 This of course must be a consideration. Hope clouds observation after all. That said Konstantin does hear jungle drums beating that we are oblivious to.
There can be no peace unless NATO takes steps to prevent this again. Plus I am afraid that if peace is declared, Europe will simply start buying more oil and gas again, making the carbon cycle worse.
@@meonline140 who advance every day, step by step, but always advance. But if you listen to the propaganda here in Europe or from Ukraine they are always winning. Russians loosing by advancing and ukrainians winning by retreating
Dear friend, I sadly don't share your optimism. Remember when the negotiations were ongoing in March 2022, what the orcs were doing in Bucha, Mariupol and others? While the propaganda is pretending to want negotiations, how many bombs and missiles are used to attack hospitals, schools, playgrounds and shopping centres?
You don't get it. Konstantin thinks that nobody will ask Kyiv what they are thinking and wanting. He said: It will be negotiated between the US and Russia. So, the US will force Ukraine to let Russia occupy Ukrainian territories. Let's be happy, what a fantastic peace for Ukraine!
I lived in Crimea for about three years. Russians from Crimea do not like Russians of Moscow. Also there are three types of Russians in Crimea. Lived in Crimea before World War 1, Moved to Crimea during the Soviet period, Moved to Crimea after the fall of the Soviet Union. When I lived and worked in Crimea around 2002 you could see these factions not fully getting along. Over the next several years these factions were mushed togeather. I see one of two things in the future. A)) Crimea becomes independent country, or B)) Crimea will rejoin Ukraine. I think the future in Russia will get so bad that Crimeans will demand a rejoining Crimea to Ukraine.
Michael, where did you live? I visited ukraine from 2001 to 2010 each year for about 2 weeks to about a month -- whatever time I could afford to be away from USA. Then I lived permanently there from 2010 to 2014. Mostly i was in sevastopol, lugansk, and kharkov. I never really got into discussions about whether people did or did not want to rejoin russia. However, one person (originally from russia but now living in sevastopol) said it didn't matter as long as she could live and make money. I miss my life in ukraine.
@@vanamee692 I lived in Simferopol from 2000 through 2003. People there really started to change after 2004. Sevastopol has more New Russians than Simferopol does.
@@MichaelMarsh-dc4ww Many a time I took the bus from sevastopol to simferopol. I presume you were working. I was retired and just trying to enjoy life. Did you have an opportunity to see other sites in Crimea? I've been to a lot of different cities, not just within crimea, but throughout ukraine. Always wanted to see Kerch, but never made it out there.
@@vanamee692 I visited Kerch once, It is a nice city wth an ancient Greek history. There used to be a club there where people celabrated the Greek history of the city. Greeks are an ethnic group of Crimea that a lot of people do not talk about or do not know about. Visited Sevastopol twice; but took the train.
How long has this war lasted? 400 years; because 400 years ago is when Moscow decided it needed Kyiv to justify it's existance as a something. There is a great desire for complete divorce from Moscow. There is a Joke in Ukraine; which goes something like this.... Ukraine builds a great statue of Putin, and people from other countries are in shock and ask the question, why did you build a statue to Putin?, and the Ukrainians respond... Putin is the founder of Modern Ukraine. Before the war there was a lot of respect for Russia within the population, now there is little respect for Russia within the population. You want to understand how willing Ukrainians are to Negotiating and Compermising with Russia. Come to Ukraine, Go to a Cafe during an air raid; while the power is off, and talk to people as you drink your coffee. For Peace to arrive soon, Putins position of power in Russia needs to be fully undermined. Russia will need to rewrite / define it's narrative. Russia might even break up some more. Putin wants to rebuild the Russian Empire because he and those around him have lost grasp of reality..... I am an American working in Kyiv.
Dear Konstantin. An American TV journalist told that he had spoken with Puin short time after his " election" were I think he just had pulled a story where he hat told tha the prisoner exchange was deleyed because Navalny should have been part of the exchange but sadly died in prison. I don't believe in any humanity from Putin, he was too afraid of the power by Navalny and and the faith among people of a better future as long as he was alive. We saw all the people taking the risk of attending his funeral.
In my opinion this is a very optimistic take from an unusual Russian. "Just make peace" is oversimplistic and does not address the bigger issue of Russia being brought by Putin in a long term confrontation with the West. For Putin there is no way of going back to before 2022, let alone before 2014. The West is now in disarray (see deep division in the US, social unrest in the UK and France, significant economic slowdown in Germany, rogue autocrats and populists challenging the EU from inside) and figuring out a coherent strategy for what to do with Russia is not top of the list for neither the average Westerner nor the Western politicians. Russia is confronted with all kind of internal issues but is not confronted with a united and determined opposition from outside. That may change, but not any time soon.
Konstantin I hope you get to see this message .... From the start in February 2022 I've been watching your posts and over this time, you've helped me come to terms and understand what's really happening in our world right now - from your inside perspective. Sir I take my hat off to you with total respect for what you are doing , the risks you take and the pain you suffer whilst doing this! My heart goes out to you and your lovely family and I wish you all well! Hopefully one day soon I will meet you and shake your hand - I'll bring some twinings tea - but in the mean time, please try to rest and sleep OK!!! With utmost respect from UK Navy Officer 1982 - 1992 - THANK YOU!👍🤜🤛👊
@INSIDE RUSSIA IN 1944 WE HAD "MAD TUESDAY" WHEN PEOPLE BELIEVED PEACE HAD COME. IN REALITY WE HAD TO GO THROUGH A GRUESOME 'HUNGER WINTER' BEFORE IT WAS PEACE. BE WARE!
Maybe Russia reaching a half million casualties is changing the Russian mindset. At that point there are empty chairs in many, many Russian homes, making the war more "real."
RfU reports Ukrainian ‘successes’ every few days BUT rarely are they reported elsewhere! I want to believe that Russia will be defeated but somehow I can’t see it happening any time soon.
By what metric is russia winning? How are you measuring that? Because everything I've seen indicates russia is out of resources. And is therefore about to lose.
i hope you are right constatine, but i find it hard to believe, especially with putins conditions. if rusha thought what was going on in donbass before the war was hard how are they going to deal with gorilla actions now that will go on for years? I think rusha has to go away permanently, and accept sanctions for at least a generation.
