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Reaction Podcast: Trump Found Guilty | 538 Politics Podcast 

FiveThirtyEight
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On Thursday, a Manhattan jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. In this 538 Politics reaction podcast, Galen speaks with former federal prosecutor Jessica Roth about the legal implications of the jury's finding. Then 538's Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to discuss the possible political implications of the guilty verdict.
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30 май 2024

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Комментарии : 220   
@jameslongstaff2762
@jameslongstaff2762 2 месяца назад
I miss seeing Galen's facial expressions. They added so much to the podcast
@steveyoung9687
@steveyoung9687 2 месяца назад
No video?
@robfreeman5783
@robfreeman5783 2 месяца назад
yep. Lame.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
In Trump's own words LAW & ORDER!
@TheWlarsong
@TheWlarsong 2 месяца назад
I miss Nate Silver. 538 is on a slide since he left.
@tonyubaka3810
@tonyubaka3810 2 месяца назад
Absolutely
@sumbohdee2luv
@sumbohdee2luv 2 месяца назад
“joe biden had nothing to do with this prosecution” people who believe that: “i already knew that” people who don’t believe that “i still dont believe that” conversation: pointless
@flamefusion8963
@flamefusion8963 2 месяца назад
Whether he is responsible for the verdict is really not relevant. He is basically forced into a position where he has to support the verdict. Now the question is which narrative will win. Was this an unfair prosecution of a Presidential candidate for his political leaning or was it a fair prosecution where justice for a crime was dealt out?
@brucemacmillan9581
@brucemacmillan9581 2 месяца назад
It was a state prosecution. Biden and the DOJ have nothing to do with state prosecutions. Of course, facts don't matter to Trump supporters. Never have. Never will.
@brucemacmillan9581
@brucemacmillan9581 2 месяца назад
​@@flamefusion8963Biden is not 'forced' to support the verdict. But it behooves him to do so in order to support the long established concept of the rule of law.
@m3kkR
@m3kkR 2 месяца назад
other podcasts have tried to go the audio only route and it always fails. hopefully it does here as well. please bring back the old 538, there was literally nothing wrong with it
@SplashTasty
@SplashTasty 2 месяца назад
Disney would just rather we dont have nice things because its costs too much money
@shaneshoemaker2564
@shaneshoemaker2564 2 месяца назад
How could you not have an opinion on Trump at this point. So insane
@genericyoutubeaccount579
@genericyoutubeaccount579 2 месяца назад
Only 85% of the people living in the USA can speak English. So 15% of people literally cannot read the articles you are reading, listen to the podcasts you are listening to, and watch the late night comedians that you love listening to. English literacy is at an all time low and plenty of people are graduating high school without being able to read or write English. It is a combination of huge waves of immigration, record low assimilation, and the breakdown of the public school system into a glorified daycare.
@WhiteKnuckleRide512
@WhiteKnuckleRide512 2 месяца назад
Plenty of people just don’t follow or care about politics.
@_a__-
@_a__- 2 месяца назад
It's depressing that we need to discuss the impact and implication of a conviction for a Presidential Candidate. Should be an instant disqualification.
@pjpredhomme7699
@pjpredhomme7699 2 месяца назад
As many people have said - it would disqualify you from being a starbucks barista - but not running for President - but then again - the constitution said he was ineligible but the illegitimate supreme court judges that he appointed said no that is not what it means - don't pay attention to what it says - we will tell you what it says . so he should not be able to run any way
@juana7035
@juana7035 2 месяца назад
​@@pjpredhomme7699😂
@robhowe8353
@robhowe8353 2 месяца назад
Move to whatever banana republic fits your fascist wishes then.
@kevinwoolley7960
@kevinwoolley7960 2 месяца назад
@@pjpredhomme7699 Constitution said he was ineligible? No, it did not.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
@@kevinwoolley7960 Found the insurrectionist
@brucemclee
@brucemclee 2 месяца назад
Lack of vid :(
@cepamor
@cepamor 2 месяца назад
TRUMP: Making Prison Great Again...
@elviejodelmar2795
@elviejodelmar2795 2 месяца назад
Things to keep in mind: 1. Review Trump's approval rating over time. Since 2015, it has hovered around 40%. 2. The continuing division in the Democratic party over the situation in Gaza. 3. Success of GOP voter suppression efforts. 4. The level of political violence.
@bryanismyname7583
@bryanismyname7583 2 месяца назад
I think a lot of independents and moderates will not want to vote for a felon. Some Republicans have said in polling that they would not vote for Trump if he was convicted. If some of them follow through on that, it could make a difference in those swing states. I believe that most Democrats will "come home," so the disagreements over Gaza may be a little overblown in terms of voting.
@juana7035
@juana7035 2 месяца назад
The GOP has never suppressed my vote. You're a good regurgitator of propaganda aka 💩
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
@@juana7035 Why do red states hate mail-in ballots 🤔
@pogo1140
@pogo1140 2 месяца назад
​. Yeah they have. Texas has, so has Alabama
@naturalwizard1441
@naturalwizard1441 2 месяца назад
Lock him up.
@loudogg3367
@loudogg3367 2 месяца назад
It is way too soon for any polls to be accurate. Especially for this particular event.
@kellybrown8638
@kellybrown8638 2 месяца назад
Accountability Makes America Great Again!
@DeadCat-42
@DeadCat-42 2 месяца назад
At this point, Trump has become a joke. The gop needs to find a new candidate quick.
@bryanismyname7583
@bryanismyname7583 2 месяца назад
Sadly, the GOP has fallen in line with Trump. It is the Trump Party now. So they have made a decision that no matter what he does, they will support him. The worst thing that ever happened to the Republican Party was 2016, because he lucked out on that EC victory and ever since he has dragged the party down in elections. Remember the "red wave" we were going to see in 2022? Yeah, the reason that didn't happen was because the party followed Trump over the cliff on election denialism. And they haven't really backed down on that, although they are largely being cagier about that aspect. So, I don't think they are in a very strong position for 2024 despite the polling thus far. But they don't seem to care, at least not publicly.
@donjuan6940
@donjuan6940 2 месяца назад
After January the sixth we the people will never trust him.
@pogo1140
@pogo1140 2 месяца назад
Lock him up!!!!
@cleokey
@cleokey 2 месяца назад
If this crime was brought against any average American, what would have happened? Plea bargain, probation, and no press?
@nerfherder6166
@nerfherder6166 2 месяца назад
How many average Americans paid half a million dollars in hush money to a high profile porn star and used funds from their presidential campaign to cover it up? Real Joe Sixpack move there.
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
For Trump to plea bargain, he’d have to admit wrongdoing. Trump is 100% wrongdoings, 0% contrition.
@gavinjenkins899
@gavinjenkins899 2 месяца назад
Sentencing depends on remorse and contrition. An average American shows remorse, doesn't call the court a clown show, doesn't violate multiple gag orders, etc. So even if that was the average sentence for sake of argument, it shouldn't be his. Abnormally abhorrent behavior, contempt, and no remorse implies much harsher than average sentencing.
@stamina4days
@stamina4days 2 месяца назад
Does it matter if he went after him intentionally......if he got more evidence and confirmed he did the crime?
@MD-zi9if
@MD-zi9if 2 месяца назад
Won't the republican part have a "Rally Around The Flag" effect? Digging in harder with their guy?
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
Sure they will but the swing voters aren't in that camp
@bryanismyname7583
@bryanismyname7583 2 месяца назад
maybe but that's his hardcore base. Anyone who isn't gung-ho for Trump is going to have to make up their minds, and my guess is some will leave him.
@irenafarm
@irenafarm 2 месяца назад
Only votes count. You don’t get extra credit for casting your vote with more or less passion. :D
@brentknight9318
@brentknight9318 2 месяца назад
Lisa ftw: yes, Todd Blanche said on CNN that Trump was guilty !!!
@frederickbuchanan9438
@frederickbuchanan9438 2 месяца назад
This trope about Trump being a non-violent offender needs to be challenged. Trump's exhortations to his cult are flagrantly violent, and lead directly to violence.
@DanBuell
@DanBuell 2 месяца назад
6:09 I’m sorry, but that is a lazy talking point that nobody is fat checked: Alan Bragg did not run saying that he was going to to prosecute Trump. In fact it was probably the opposite. You might recall that a lot of prosecutors left the office because they felt like he was not going to prosecute Trump. 6:09
@quasibrodo923
@quasibrodo923 2 месяца назад
I want to like the video, but it has 34 likes ATM. It seems very appropriate.
@kevinwoolley7960
@kevinwoolley7960 2 месяца назад
This will likely have the opposite effect of what the commenters are describing, already the trial has increased small donations to the Trump campaign, this will highly motivate many Republican voters who view this as a politically motivated prosecution in comparison with the handling of Biden (classified documents) and Hillary Clinton (illegal use of a private server for government office communications).
@Dragracingduleist
@Dragracingduleist 2 месяца назад
It will inspire his base, but his base is far too small to carry him to victory. He needs the more liberal republicans, he needs the swing voters to have any chance and this is gna hurt him with those voters. To think it wont is ignorant, hes a felon and that matters to enough people that it will certainly matter
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
The main question is how it will affect swing voters though, the base is gonna base
@nox5555
@nox5555 2 месяца назад
@@nyern Swingvoters? this is eating into the Dem base. You cant let violent criminals roam freely while going after something as stupid as this. The whole case was about invoices and if Trump influenced cohen to lie on his invoices to Trump.
@tonyubaka3810
@tonyubaka3810 2 месяца назад
Of course, they'll rally round him but if u think his base wins him d presidency without broadening his coalition, Mark my word,he'll lose again if he keeps wrecking havoc and chaos. Sooner or later people are gonna be reminded how chaotic his presidency was.
@kevinwoolley7960
@kevinwoolley7960 2 месяца назад
@@tonyubaka3810 It will be a tight fought election. If the polls are accurate, Trump is likely to win given that he is up substantially in most of the swing states. I'm not convinced the polls are accurate. But the negative sentiment toward both candidates is very intense. I don't have certainty about the outcome at all.
@hans.vbaalen
@hans.vbaalen 2 месяца назад
Galen: where and when did Bragg say he was going after Trump? i think you (repeating Trump) confuse him with Letitia James.
@wethepeople2023
@wethepeople2023 2 месяца назад
You guys really ran past the judge’s daughter point 😂 She made a lot of money off this
@Derrickthepeng
@Derrickthepeng 2 месяца назад
No way this sticks. That would make too much sense.
@ZappBranniglenn
@ZappBranniglenn 2 месяца назад
Well yesterday's Goal Post was 'No Way this isn't a Hung Jury' so anything's possible
@gavinjenkins899
@gavinjenkins899 2 месяца назад
Sentencing depends on largely contrition and remorse. So....
@Chadius_Thundercock
@Chadius_Thundercock 2 месяца назад
I hate the new art/painting thumbnail style new networks use now. Looks terrible, just use a picture
@bmeht
@bmeht 2 месяца назад
Completely pointless.
@dyeager152
@dyeager152 2 месяца назад
potatoes
@luisnavarro9803
@luisnavarro9803 2 месяца назад
Trump should have had a good speech ready in case of a guilty verdict. There was a lot to be said in a rational way but he had to do it on his own and not sound good. A missed opportunity to connect with Independents.
@robhowe8353
@robhowe8353 2 месяца назад
He's under a gag order till after sentencing.
@geraldgooding9790
@geraldgooding9790 2 месяца назад
JUSTIFIED VERDICT GUILTY AS CHARGE TRUMP 😢😮
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
I wonder if Melania Trump will endorse & vote for Joe Biden.
@goodlookinouthomie1757
@goodlookinouthomie1757 2 месяца назад
This won't pan out the way they think it will.
@ryanmahon1
@ryanmahon1 2 месяца назад
Friendly reminder that he's convicted because he's guilty.
@goodlookinouthomie1757
@goodlookinouthomie1757 2 месяца назад
@@ryanmahon1 Whether he's guilty of this trivial misdemeanour or not, it changes nothing about the truth of my point. This will go places none of these people expect.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
​@@goodlookinouthomie1757 34 felonies = trivial misdemeanor, got it 👍
@goodlookinouthomie1757
@goodlookinouthomie1757 2 месяца назад
@@nyern Redefined as a felony for this specific case, strangely. If Trump were anyone else in the world, or if he were not running for POTUS, this trial would never have happened.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
@@goodlookinouthomie1757 I didn't realize they wrote fraud and campaign finance laws to attack Trump personally
@user-fi2ni8xj1z
@user-fi2ni8xj1z 2 месяца назад
DEMOCRATS RATS FJB
@robfreeman5783
@robfreeman5783 2 месяца назад
I think it just tightens the race, does not change the outcome. In 3 months people won't be thinking about it much.
@billsherman1565
@billsherman1565 2 месяца назад
You don't think they'll be thinking about the fact that he's now a felon?
@WhiteKnuckleRide512
@WhiteKnuckleRide512 2 месяца назад
@@billsherman1565do you think the average trump voter will change their mind over this? I really can’t imagine anybody who’s supported trump after everything he’s done suddenly changing their mind because of one more thing on the pile
@SplashTasty
@SplashTasty 2 месяца назад
@@WhiteKnuckleRide512 Dude the average Trump voter doesnt decide this election. The people who decided 2020 were the independent voters who turned out in a few states to vote against the incumbent president. This was also the highest turnout election in years. Turnout is inevitably come down, and if Trump couldnt win with massive turnout I dont think hes going to do better this time around.
@bdadams13
@bdadams13 2 месяца назад
No video; not watching. Only clicked on it long enough to leave a thumbs-down.
@s4nari
@s4nari 2 месяца назад
I miss the video too, but just so you know; clicking the thumbs down button does the same thing as the thumbs up button algorithm wise. It counts as positive engagement for the video as RU-vid considers any interaction as a positive mark on the video, including leaving comments.
@markmurray2846
@markmurray2846 2 месяца назад
Is this lady serious? The judge made sure none of the jurors had preconceived notions about Trump. Does anyone believe this?
@billsherman1565
@billsherman1565 2 месяца назад
Well ya, considering the defense was allowed every opportunity to strike jurors. It was fair and frankly, donnie was treated with baby gloves
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
Republicans: Trump can do any crime because all juries are biased So much for the party of law and order 🤡
@jamapx
@jamapx 2 месяца назад
"Jessica" is FOS.
@freqenc
@freqenc 2 месяца назад
Stopping all support to Ukraine and Israel now. No Trump, No support, NUFF SAID.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
Sounds like you want American troops fighting and dying instead
@garbonomics
@garbonomics 2 месяца назад
Nothing said here to justify this case is true. This was simply sophistry attempting to explain why such a corrupt proceeding was justified.
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
12 jurors disagree
@garbonomics
@garbonomics 2 месяца назад
And I suppose you believe 12 jurors have never been biased? Consider the kangaroo trials in the Jim Crow South, where 12 white jurors would convict a black man to death for a misdemeanor. Are those trials justified simply because all 12 agreed? Just like 12 Democrats agreeing to convict a Republican.
@jerensteffen
@jerensteffen 2 месяца назад
Doesn't matter how comprehensive the screening process was. If the jury/judge was pulled from an equally heavy Trump favored area, he would have been innocent.
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
At the start of voir dire, Judge Merchan allowed anyone who confessed to being unable to be fair to self recuse. Trump’s defense team was able to strike and select jurors too. Everything about the process was fair. Why are you even talking about different venues? The crimes took place in Manhattan.
@billsherman1565
@billsherman1565 2 месяца назад
@@futureglobal7258 Because they're triggered and looking for anything to justify the lies trump is telling
@jerensteffen
@jerensteffen 2 месяца назад
@@futureglobal7258 I never said the process wasn't fair. My only point is that a bias saturation of a jury pool and the bias of a judge has an impact. If the pool was only from people at a Trump, it wouldn't matter how many strikes/recusals you go through. Or if Clarence Thomas was the judge, it would have played out differently. Additionally, even if I thought he was innocent, the risk to my family would be too high in that area to say anything but guilty. I feel like this is a very reasonable assessment given the political climate, especially when it involves Trump.
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
@@jerensteffen are you suggesting that Judge Merchan wasn’t fair to Trump’s defense team?
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
@@jerensteffen the political climate had no significant effect on the behavior of the judge, prosecution and jurors; despite Republican hysterical efforts to undermine & delegitimize the trial. If the facts had been on Trump’s side, he would’ve argued the facts. If the law had been on Trump’s side, he would’ve argued the law. Because neither the law nor the facts were on his side, defendant Trump spent every day trying to gin up distrust & hatred. The right thing for him to do would’ve been to confess & plead guilty. Many millions of dollars ago. He knows he committed all of those crimes.
@thenosa87
@thenosa87 2 месяца назад
Shame on witch hunt
@jeffw8218
@jeffw8218 2 месяца назад
How does it feel to be responsible for the decline of the United States?🤔
@billsherman1565
@billsherman1565 2 месяца назад
Who's responsible lol
@jeffw8218
@jeffw8218 2 месяца назад
@@billsherman1565Biden and Biden voters 👍
@nyern
@nyern 2 месяца назад
How does it feel to live in fantasy land 🤔
@jeffw8218
@jeffw8218 2 месяца назад
@@nyern Says the person who doesn’t have a job, and has to rely on the government for money?🤔😂
@joshuahartgraves3393
@joshuahartgraves3393 2 месяца назад
There's a lot of gay sounding guys here
@shaneshoemaker2564
@shaneshoemaker2564 2 месяца назад
Of course manhattan found him guilty. They hate him
@CashMoneyMoore
@CashMoneyMoore 2 месяца назад
Trial of his peers, he lives in Manhattan lol
@poochyenarulez
@poochyenarulez 2 месяца назад
As any reasonable person would
@juana7035
@juana7035 2 месяца назад
​@@poochyenarulezreasonable people know that a bookkeeping entry for a legal fee is correct. There was no crime, it's a Communist show trial, another stain in the DNC plantation. Glad to see my community of Minorities standing behind Trump and running away from the DNC plantation. A great failure under Obama's 3rd term.
@billsherman1565
@billsherman1565 2 месяца назад
@@juana7035 Maga tears lol
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
Manhattan is not a RepubliKKKan jurisdiction. It’s not the Jim Crow south. They don’t convict based on hate.
@mwm776
@mwm776 2 месяца назад
I did not vote for Trump in 2016 nor 2020. But I will be voting for him in 2024. Ends do not justify the means and when we start bringing cases where prosecutors don’t even have to specify what federal crime was broken, that’s just insane to me. It’s purely a protest vote. It’s obvious this was done to dissuade people from voting for Trump but for some weird reason it’s had the opposite effect on me. From what I saw yesterday, I know I’m not the only person that feels this way
@thomasguyler6839
@thomasguyler6839 2 месяца назад
I gotta ask, do you think Republican prosecutors wouldn't do similar if Biden could be shown to have broken the law? Also want to ask at what level this trial became insane, the crime that they say was broken by falsifying the records went to "intent to violate federal campaign finance limits, unlawfully influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and commit tax fraud", was it the specifics of these that you think made it a lesser offence that others wouldn't be brought up on, and again doo you think Biden would have violated similar laws? I'm an outsider to US and the whole polarisation and talking points over in the US is so strange and unknown for me
@mwm776
@mwm776 2 месяца назад
@@thomasguyler6839 We already have an example of this. Hurr not bringing up charges against Biden last year. There is a reason the FEC and the DOJ didn’t pursue this case. And I’m completely fine with the Florida and DC case. But in this case specifically the judge and prosecution used two novel legal theories to even make it happen. The first was figuring out how to get past the statue of limitations and the second was part of the first but interpreting the law that they didn’t need to fulfill the obligation to specify what federal crime was broken is crazy. They gave 3 theories to what federal crimes were broken. They needed to either only go with one, or charge all 3. It’s not right to pick and choose. As the judge said, he would accept 4-4-4 as a uniamous verdict
@okk
@okk 2 месяца назад
"I didn't vote for trumps policies in 2016 or 2020, but I'll vote for him in 2024 and change my political values because a criminal was convicted"
@poochyenarulez
@poochyenarulez 2 месяца назад
So you're against sending criminals to jail?
@juana7035
@juana7035 2 месяца назад
​@@poochyenarulezwhat crime? A bookkeeping entry for a legal fee? 😂
@shaneshoemaker2564
@shaneshoemaker2564 2 месяца назад
Liberal appellate court
@futureglobal7258
@futureglobal7258 2 месяца назад
Good.
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