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Russia Is Still Advancing, But Slowly. Here's Why. 

William Spaniel
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For the past few months, Russia has been on an offensive in Ukraine. It has been successful in the sense that Russian troops have gained ground. It has been less the optimal from the Kremlin's perspective because those gains have come about slowly. So why is Ukraine losing ground, and why isn't Ukraine losing more ground? This video puts the current offensive in a broader context, and places special focus on the role of defensive entrenchments in explaining what is happening now.
0:00 The War's Current Tempo
1:06 Recent Territorial Exchanges
4:53 Why Is Russia Gaining Ground?
10:26 Why Are Russia's Gains So Slow?
The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.
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24 май 2024

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Комментарии : 2 тыс.   
@josephfox9221
@josephfox9221 Месяц назад
my theory is that a slow burn war is easier on Russia. a constant war drains Ukraine manpower, but doesnt invite as much Western Aid. a slow burning war also doesnt send too many body bags home in one go. also it gives Russia the Opportunity to build up their military. so for Russia, as long as the lines move westward. it doesnt mind how slow it goes
@andrewryanwasright
@andrewryanwasright Месяц назад
I think that's a good analysis
@SkyDiver-wd5oj
@SkyDiver-wd5oj Месяц назад
I agree
@JeanLucsNerdBrain
@JeanLucsNerdBrain Месяц назад
@@andrewryanwasright Russia so far has played a very patient long game after the opening moves. they knew this would be a long war and have not been in a rush to escalate it despite what western MSM wants people to think. sure they COULD send a tone of soldiers armed to the teeth into Ukraine in a massive offensive but that might scare NATO enough to do something stupid. instead they let western interest slowly fade while slowly griding away at Ukraine morale and making them realize that unless they gave up SOMETHING willingly this will never end and countless generations of Ukrainians will never know peace.
@boarfaceswinejaw4516
@boarfaceswinejaw4516 Месяц назад
based on footage from the war, and the amount of manpower losses russia suffers with its disastrious long sieges on deeply held defensive positions, i'd argue that it doesnt preserve manpower. in fact, if the amount of footage of russian troops without sufficient vehicle support is anything to go by, as well as the frequent clown-car tactics using apcs and tanks (where they regularly have more than twice the amount of passengers on them), russia's slow advance can be partially chalked up to a lack of sufficient vehicles.
@Karlswebb
@Karlswebb 29 дней назад
@@andrewryanwasrightIt’s a horrible analysis. They are taking massive losses at 4 dead per 1 ukranian dead.
@johnsullivan6843
@johnsullivan6843 Месяц назад
There’s a sports saying, “offense will help sell season tickets, but defense (or pitching for us baseball fans) is what gets wins.”
@HavocHerseim
@HavocHerseim Месяц назад
you must be a fighter.
@Chilicoach
@Chilicoach Месяц назад
Heard this in basketball all the time. But the way the game has evolved, idk if it still rings true 😂
@zjpdarkblaze
@zjpdarkblaze Месяц назад
there is also a sports saying that "offense is the best defense."
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Shut up, you all laugh when Russia is on defensive last year, lol.
@bearlytamedmodels
@bearlytamedmodels Месяц назад
@@VodkaPandas putin isn't going to sleep with you
@Srbazo
@Srbazo Месяц назад
Shovels, washing machines and now ninja turtles
@dustintacohands1107
@dustintacohands1107 Месяц назад
Heroes in a half shell turtle power
@GeneralMegrel
@GeneralMegrel Месяц назад
You people keep using the same dumb jokes over and over again. It won't change the fact that tens of thousands of Russian boys are fertilizer in Ukraine with nothing to show for it
@Theta90
@Theta90 Месяц назад
Reading this comment with no context is fantastic
@larsrons7937
@larsrons7937 Месяц назад
Wait till you see russia's new combat fridge-killing burger on the battlefield. Video: _'Killer burger' robot created by Russian engineers developing hobby_
@CensorshipGenesis
@CensorshipGenesis Месяц назад
@@larsrons7937- Gosh! What about toasters?! Toasters chips matter! LOL 😂 😂
@Aqueox
@Aqueox Месяц назад
I would contend that Russia is intentionally taking its time, for the moment. Why? 1. Ukraine is having supply and manpower issues. 2. Western support is waning, and the US election is still months away. These two factors give Russia a certain time advantage, and they are simply "meandering" along, applying just enough pressure to keep Ukraine on the back foot and never getting comfortable, but little enough where they aren't losing men and material unnecessarily in vast offensives that may or may not work. Russia is simply fighting an attritional conflict now. They tried a quick blitz, and that didn't work. Ever since the initial invasion, they've just switched gears to attritional warfare with the understanding that Ukraine will inevitably run out of men and/or material.
@JK-dv3qe
@JK-dv3qe Месяц назад
and also: the longer the 'war' lasts, the more depleted western military capability/arsenals will become. they keep sending their haha equipment only for it to be destroyed in ukieland ('elite' stuff like the M-1 Abrams, the 'elite' Challenger 2, the laughable Leopard 2, and numerous french baguette equipment). as Sun Tzu said: don't interrupt your enemy when he is in the process of weakening himself
@robertrennebohm506
@robertrennebohm506 Месяц назад
Western equipment is good but just like the Russian stuff built for a different war. Also how many times has each sides stuff been hit before its destruction? This is new warfare and the Russians are making changes fast and technical. The Russian forces 2 years in are a good fighting force and adapted to the new reality of this
@Vatnikenrager
@Vatnikenrager Месяц назад
The u.s had total air dominance over Vietnam and a 10 to 1 kill ratio.. still lost. If you think Russia Iran and north Korea can materially and financially out produce nato, Japan, south Korea and others you are on vatnik crack.
@jdevries404
@jdevries404 Месяц назад
This is actually a quite good analysis in my opinion. I would like to add, with the US elections in mind. A slow conflict seems a better option to not really awake Nato. In many nato countries ukraine barely reaches the news and fast flashy wins would put more pressure on nato to help ukraine. In a slow and painful death russia seems to get an edge while nato keeps being distracted.
@Vatnikenrager
@Vatnikenrager Месяц назад
@@JK-dv3qe Russia has lost 3k tanks and you are getting excited about nato losing 100..much wow..such lol. Meanwhile Russia is using ural's and t55 in frontal attacks.
@joeytje50
@joeytje50 Месяц назад
How is it possible to miss a 'Putin' in the long string of pudding, putting, punting, etc wordplay?
@pierocaramelli1493
@pierocaramelli1493 Месяц назад
better yet the phrase "little f*cker" is "P" "U" "T" "I" "N" "H" "O" in my native language
@JaKingScomez
@JaKingScomez Месяц назад
It doesn’t work
@Yuusou.
@Yuusou. Месяц назад
@@JaKingScomez I think it was easy to put in Putin somewhere.
@OdyTypeR
@OdyTypeR Месяц назад
​@@Yuusou. Well, the video is about the situation _on_ the ground... Can't wait for the _in_ the ground vid, where Vladimir can be Put in.
@JaKingScomez
@JaKingScomez Месяц назад
@@Yuusou. do you talk or just comment on the internet?
@jameslopes6918
@jameslopes6918 Месяц назад
The answer to this question is pretty simple. Technology. The modern battlefield is saturated with drones monitoring every piece of the frontline. Any movement is detected and coutner measures activated. Defenders advantage has got to an insane level now that the Russians only option for overcoming a defensible piece of territory is to demolish the defenses ahead of an assault. Demolishing the defenses take a bit of time so they move slowly. Those 1500kg bombs do some work though holy shit. Even still, blowing up building by building in a city can take a lot of time.
@Mosern1977
@Mosern1977 Месяц назад
Yes, the fog of war is pretty much gone now. And when neither side have air superiority then its going to be a very slow grind. Winning by destroying everything in its path seems to be the Russian tactic, it takes a lot of time and a lot of ammo.
@mellohi6175
@mellohi6175 Месяц назад
My theory is that Russia is also using their strategy of destroying everything in its path as an opportunity to depopulate Ukrainian cities and resettle them with Russians. Kind of like what the Nazis wanted to do in Ukraine after WW2.
@yugster78
@yugster78 Месяц назад
Exactly the narrator of this vid never mentioned this key factor. Drones and precision guided weapons have done to the battle field what the machine gun did 100+ years ago.
@johns9969
@johns9969 Месяц назад
The manpower miss match is staggering. Ukraine has been depopulated.
@zeffy._440
@zeffy._440 Месяц назад
@@Mosern1977 air superiority won't help much drones can hit enemy helicopters, AA systems can knock em out of the sky.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
Two reasons that come to mind: 1) You'll always lose land if you don't attack, WW2 Germany was still gaining land through counter attacks, even in March of 1945. 2) Ukraine has a shortage of ammunition, which is ultimately the biggest reason Edit: WW3 has officially began in these replies
@memazov6601
@memazov6601 Месяц назад
Have you reached day 2000 yet
@stevenkies802
@stevenkies802 Месяц назад
Two caveats: 1) If you actrashly, you can end up making things worse 2) "Amatures think stategy, experts think logistics" -Napoleon
@IconoclastX
@IconoclastX Месяц назад
No one mentions the fact that the troop numbers are so low. Millions of men were used in ww2 thats why the gains were rapid. If russia drafted three to four million men, Ukraine would be gone in a year
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
@@memazov6601 ._. do you think this is the time to ask /j
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
@MayankTrivedi2 But it's not, I have seen countless hours of footage, and about 99% of them are younger than 40. Ukraine isn't in a manpower shortage, that's Russian propaganda. Because it just does not make sense, historically, or demographically.
@Mosern1977
@Mosern1977 Месяц назад
Slow progress is probably because the defending side has too many advantages in this war as the parties currently stand. Neither side will be able to repeat their earlier quick captures/re-captures.
@NikolayBychkovRus
@NikolayBychkovRus Месяц назад
My opinion as russian: it is grinding, slow and steady. Land gains is unimportant at all. RUAF has higher hand in artillery and aviation, especially with new gliding fab1500, and can afford demolishing of fortifications.
@Aurxa09
@Aurxa09 Месяц назад
@@NikolayBychkovRus snd what about losses
@NikolayBychkovRus
@NikolayBychkovRus Месяц назад
@@Aurxa09 uaf loses? Yep, based on UA news in legislation, they are in trouble.
@debilman9065
@debilman9065 Месяц назад
@@NikolayBychkovRus Careful now, you're discrediting the Russian armed forces by ignoring the progress of prisoner battalions
@inf3rnis984
@inf3rnis984 Месяц назад
@@Aurxa09 losses on the russian side dramatically decreased since the start of the war through better tactics ukraine on the other hand is quite the opposite
@amymason156
@amymason156 Месяц назад
I think the lack of ammunition and the solution to it are together the best explanation for the way the war is going. Ukraine can't go on the offense without more ammunition, but Russia can't go on the offense when Ukrainians are using drones to break their assault groups. Drones are far better defensive weapons than they are offensive weapons, because it's easier to defend against drones than artillery shells, but it's easier to attack moving targets with drones than with artillery.
@RockMusicEnjoyer
@RockMusicEnjoyer Месяц назад
Russia doesn't need to advance when it can just whittle down what's left of the enemy. As for saving troops, I suspect that they're genuinely worried about full blown WW3 and want to save most troops for that possibility.
@Dkamenev
@Dkamenev Месяц назад
The current Russian loses from the front lint don't look like a savings strategy.
@2727daqwid
@2727daqwid Месяц назад
Edit: AI-generated TLDR: (sorry for absurdly long comment) - Nuclear war deters large-scale conflict between Russia and the West (EU+allies). - Even without nukes, a full-scale war wouldn't benefit either side due to the vast differences in manpower and resources. - Russia's justifications for the war are weak (e.g., Ukraine joining NATO). - Ukraine's best hope is to hold on long enough to make the war too costly for Russia, which may happen. - Russia can't give up completely, because of all the investment it has already committed. WW3 is not possible, because it would inevitably lead to a nuclear exchange. It simply doesn't calculate. It's completely different for russia to try to take on Ukraine which is way smaller in all metrics, and take on the collective "West", or even the EU alone which are multiple times bigger in most metrics but landmass and current military industry output (which could change in the future, if EU countries think conflict is imminent). If that war were to happen, saving manpower wouldn't matter one bit. On top of that, the EU collectively has 1.4 million professional military personnel and another 2.3 million in reserves. Russia has 1.3m conscripts (part of it is professional, granted, but not the majority) with 2m in reserve. Population-wise, the EU has 4x the population. I think you see where I'm going with this, right? It just doesn't calculate for either side even with 0 nukes involved, especially, for russia. Besides, the EU or its countries are not interested in a conflict - aside from some bullying smaller countries in Africa and the Middle East for multiple insanely complicated reasons. And those are rather hugely unpopular amongst the population. I remember at the beginning of this offensive/war putin said that he was worried NATO and the EU were getting too close to russian borders. Dude forgot about Kaliningrad/Konisberg/Krolewiec (pick your favorite name lol) and Belarus, and Finland + Norway... Not to mention he mentioned Ukraine would join NATO and attack russia - which would mean nothing, because NATO cannot help in such an event, and on top of that, try convincing the EU citizens to die in a war started by some dude in Ukraine. Wouldn't happen in our, or any alternative universe, absolute 0% chance. I bet some Europeans didn't know where Ukraine was on the map before the war lol. Like asking the average American where their own state of Vermont is lol. When it comes to the first part of your comment - russia does have positive GDP growth, however, that comes from military production boosted by the state. That's not sustainable long term. And they know this will swing the other way regardless of where the war ends and they chill with the production, or will have to increase taxes, and that can go sideways real quick in russia. I guess for now it's a positive outcome politically, strategically, maybe economically (though I doubt it since the land they are gaining is virtually useless, and will be for years to come). My point is, that there is a chance Ukraine may be able to hold for long enough for russia to quite literally lose any economic and political gain from all of this. A successful Ukrainian offensive of course would tip the scale way quicker, but that didn't happen, so the best Ukraine can do is to try to hold the line, inflict as much damage - especially inside russia - as they can and hope the profitability is enough for russia to give up advancing. The question then is, if Ukraine can give up the territory because 100% russia is not getting out of there empty-handed, that would just absolutely collapse the entire nation thanks to all the war propaganda and their historical character. Not to mention all that investment, loss of lives, isolation from the West, Chinese influence... All would be for nothing.
@pretoasted
@pretoasted Месяц назад
Line those maps, bb. Keep up the amazing work!
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Cope, you all laugh when Russia build their defense, lol.
@remyphilly5168
@remyphilly5168 Месяц назад
​@@VodkaPandasshut up bot
@2MeterLP
@2MeterLP Месяц назад
@@VodkaPandas Of course we laugh when the agressor in a war of conquest is forced to build defenses against a country that is 28 times smaller.
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
@@2MeterLP Who said it was a war of conquest? 200k troops was not enough to occupy all of Ukraine, Russia achieved it's victory when Ukraine promise to negotiate in Istanbul if Russia pull their troops out of Kyiv, when Russia do that Ukraine betrayed them and continue fighting with the western countries support, at the beginning of the war Russia comes with 200k troops while Ukraine had 900k active duty and 1.2 mil reserve, now Russia have more troops in the front than Ukraine, what Ukraine gonna do about it?
@2MeterLP
@2MeterLP Месяц назад
@@VodkaPandas Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea say its a war of conquest.
@shurqeh
@shurqeh Месяц назад
Option three: Russian offensive is less offensive more probe and they are waiting for signs that Ukraine does not have the firepower to respond
@tpespos
@tpespos Месяц назад
Probes typically have smaller force offensive and much less manpower and material losses. Calling these attacks probes is the same thing Ukraine did by calling their offensives probes
@abas656thegodemperor9
@abas656thegodemperor9 Месяц назад
bingo, that tactic is a favorite for russia, down to the combat, one of their strategies is to probe defensive lines and then make a spearhead to breacb and encircle the enemy forces
@adam.maqavoy
@adam.maqavoy Месяц назад
Not really No. Unless you'd want to Esculate War and get them even more Furious of & By NATO. Even I can Agree with The Pycckian President on this. *Why?* - Because less than 4 in The World (by Politican Leaders) in the EU. Are Against AI development.
@kevinc1200
@kevinc1200 Месяц назад
Could be Russia is not aiming at territorial gain at the current stage of the war. It may be that Russia is actually winning in attrition (despite claims on the English speak media) and is cautiously pushing forward to force engagement with the aim of grinding down Ukrainian personnel, material and morale.
@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub
@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Месяц назад
I don't see Russia winning the war of attrition. I keep seeing massed Russian attacks getting hammered by mines , artillery and drones , for negligible loss to Ukraine. I also see Ukraine hitting oil refineries and now Russia is importing fuel. When it comes to an economic war of attrition , Russia can only lose against the West so time is not on their side.
@heroes8844
@heroes8844 Месяц назад
winning what? nato havent even mobilize
@ilyal5712
@ilyal5712 Месяц назад
@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Then why military officers are so eager head-hunting for new recruits in Ukraine? You said 'negligible loss to Ukraine'.
@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub
@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Месяц назад
@@ilyal5712 Russia has been actively recruiting mercenaries , including from neighbouring countries and countries as far away as Cuba as well as prisoners. Ukraine needs to match this so obviously Ukraine needs more manpower.
@ilyal5712
@ilyal5712 Месяц назад
@@ProcaviaCapensis-ts8ub Same as Ukraine's international legion with Polish, French, Colombians, Georgians, etc.? In the latest law, Ukraine will utilize prisoners as soldiers too.
@jasip1000
@jasip1000 Месяц назад
Progress is slow partly because drones have now changed warfare so that big troop movements can’t be made, without being detected and suck in enemy artillery fire. But then again, what’s the goal with the special military operation is it mostly conquering land or is it mostly demilitarize and denazify Ukraine?
@secretbunnie2206
@secretbunnie2206 Месяц назад
The war will end when the Ukrainians run out (this will happen faster than a direct seizure of territory). I don't understand why Russia feels sorry for the civilian population and tries to wage war "carefully" if, as a result, sooner or later the front-line cities turn into a burnt-out desert anyway No one needs the population of these territories anyway. Most of the Russian population already lives in the part of the territory that was liberated earlier in 2022
@andersgrassman6583
@andersgrassman6583 Месяц назад
Nobody seems to be confident about what the hell the goals of this war are for Putin. Whatever goals, they seem either unattainable, or the war has actually made things even worse. Like if Putin wanted less of a potential NATO border, he just doubled it with Finland and Sweden ACTUALLY having joined NATO. If he wanted a more Russia friendly regime in Ukraine ("denazification") - well obviously Putin has on the contrary managed to absolutely galvanize the Ukranian people as sternly anti-russian. Probably for generations to come.
@markmarco6277
@markmarco6277 Месяц назад
Nazies...Hitler would love Putin.
@LLachs283
@LLachs283 Месяц назад
Listen to putin. For them ukraine is just a seperatis russian state that needs to be "reunited" with the "motherland"
@sashap5747
@sashap5747 Месяц назад
​​​@@LLachs283 Not all of it definitely. Ukraine is devided inside itself. Western regions with too much population opposed to Russia would be too much of a problem. In the East a lot of peope are actually proRussian
@miskakopperoinen8408
@miskakopperoinen8408 Месяц назад
Multiple reasons are given for the Russian slow advance in the comments, but I'd like to emphasize the significance of the casualties Russia has suffered in their low- and mid-level officer corps. It is their duty to ultimately keep the smaller portions of the army supplied, organized and moving and the casualties have been grievous. I am willing to accept that Russia has largely replaced them, but practical experience and institutional knowledge plainly put just takes time to build. I hence suspect that Russia does not have many formations that would be even capable of the organizational strain that a complex, rapid tactical maneuver would necessitate. Massive, set-piece strategic struggles like the one in Avdijvka are ultimately simpler to maintain and supply (While the demands are enormous, the supply chains can be organized to supply a single point and don't need to constantly adapt to shifting positions and uneven consumption rates), and provide even a relatively poorly-led force the opportunity to seriously hurt their opponent thtrough the weight of firepower. Personally I see similar aspects to WW1 in this specific regard; There, too, massive but highly localized battles often took places with the primary goal of grinding the opponent down , hopefully faster than own forces were attritioned.
@LewisPulsipher
@LewisPulsipher Месяц назад
Why announce a big mobilization when you can mobilize large numbers every month without seeming to change anything? Some suggest that this is exactly what has been happening.
@user-ww7bz1cx2p
@user-ww7bz1cx2p Месяц назад
Let's imagine your assumption is true. Realistically it is impossible to hide a mobilization even in small numbers every month. Especially with the claims of Ukr MOD. But We don't hear any reports about new mobilized people since 2022. Even gossips. I know several people who volunteered to sign a contract with Russian MOD. My friend who were a part of an annual conscription claim that although they were heavily encouraged to sign a contract but nobody forced them to to that. And my friend decided not to. And now they just returned to their civilian lifes.
@Horny_Fruit_Flies
@Horny_Fruit_Flies Месяц назад
Shadow mobilization for PR reasons. Mobilize covertly without announcing it publicly. Fairly typical of fascists states like Russia.
@davidcrawley9479
@davidcrawley9479 Месяц назад
Early blunders in the Russian offensive have led to staggering losses of skilled troops. They have replaced these losses by mobilizing troops and sending them to the front line with limited training. The result is that the Russia lacks any real skill in its fighting troops. Without skilled troops it is very hard to make forward progress. The result has been that Russia has engaged in even more costly offenses leading to further losses of troops - and a vicious circle goes around again. Ukraine on the other hand has tried to preserve manpower, and its front line troops are now extraordinarily experienced. Russia can continue to make incremental gains by throwing manpower at skilled Ukrainian troops but this will make matters worse not better in the long run.
@PSEPI_Kabooshki
@PSEPI_Kabooshki Месяц назад
The lines on maps have turned into lines-in-dirt
@wppz7691
@wppz7691 Месяц назад
Why?
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Urine lines would not be as strong as Surovikin line
@GenericInternetter
@GenericInternetter Месяц назад
I think it's worth analyzing how much it costs (in all senses, not just money) either side to hold each km^2 of Ukranian territory. Then comparing that to estimates of how much of those costed resources each side has in reserve and can generate per day/week/month. I would love to see a video on that. Gaining territory doesn't mean much if you can't hold it. If you steal 50 bricks from me, you're probably not going to be able to hold them for very long before I catch you. On the other hand, if you steal 1 brick from me, you'd probably be long gone before I can even react. Strange analogy, I hope it makes sense.
@JeRefuseDeBienPrononcerBaleine
@JeRefuseDeBienPrononcerBaleine Месяц назад
I think a better analogy would be the cost for a legal battle. Like, if you steal a brick from one guy and he sue you in court the cost is going to be much more manageable than if you stole from 50 persons and they all sue separatly. Or it's going to be easier if you earn 50000 $/month than if you earn 5000 $/month because you'll be able to last longer and hire a better team.
@draculasneeze6681
@draculasneeze6681 Месяц назад
talks about gaining/holding (territory), then gives an "analogy" using bricks (costed resources) - wrong by your own definitions. 😝😝😝😝😝😝
@AdeptAnalytic
@AdeptAnalytic Месяц назад
Thanks William
@thespiceman9367
@thespiceman9367 Месяц назад
Will I love your content. No brainrot, no doomerism, just straightforward explanations. Really scratches my itch of missing interesting college lectures. Thank you 🙏
@simonbowden8408
@simonbowden8408 Месяц назад
Great video thank you!
@JerronHonda
@JerronHonda Месяц назад
Very good work ! Subscribed 🎉
@we3d4fre38
@we3d4fre38 Месяц назад
25 freedom distances caught me offguard XD
@romanbellic810
@romanbellic810 Месяц назад
What's the tree picture for?
@ninahenricsson4934
@ninahenricsson4934 Месяц назад
Hi all, just a question: Most of you post your comments under a signature. How do you get one? Where can I register to procure one? Grateful for your comments on this.
@miroslavdusin4325
@miroslavdusin4325 Месяц назад
It seems to me that Russian advance is based on total destruction of the area they conquer so this way it can't be faster. Second thing is that the improved Russian strategy is mainly on the high level but not on the low level. Just hypotheses, my knowledge is limited here.
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Russian advance is based on the shortage of Ukrainian troops on the frontlines, just like Russia during Ukraine counteroffensive on Kharkiv and Kherson, Ukraine need to retreat and retreat again just like Russia last year, now the tide once again turns on Russia's favor.
@LewisPulsipher
@LewisPulsipher Месяц назад
@@VodkaPandas It's ammo in an artillery war, mate. Not anything else.
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
@@LewisPulsipher Of course that too, what a shortage Ukraine is not facing? Manpower, ammunitions, money? Everything, that Country is not supposed to last this long.
@creature2479
@creature2479 Месяц назад
They're not fighting for land, they're fighting for casualties and ammo as Russia has far more of these to spare. Think WW1, when something cracks, stuff will move fast
@creature2479
@creature2479 Месяц назад
They're not fighting for land, they're fighting for casualties and ammo as Russia has far more of these to spare. Think WW1, when something cracks, stuff will move fast
@multimossad
@multimossad Месяц назад
Some reports talk about almost unmaned ukranian positios in the front , the russians know it and still not atack those weak spots , very strange indeed , as if the russians were more interested in deplete the western weapons depots rather than taking ground , perhaps they dont want to overextend their logistics and are comfortably with a slow pase and short logistic lines , other very strange fact is that most of the Ukraines bridges are intact even while the russian various misiles and bombs can reach close to Poland , one explanation could be thay wanted those briges for themselves but everybody knows that if ukranians retreat they will blow the bridges behind.
@shaun7142
@shaun7142 Месяц назад
And let me guess, all of those reports are from Russian stooges.
@RogerAckroid
@RogerAckroid Месяц назад
Aren't the fortifications in Avdivka strong (it's on the frontline for the last 10 years) but Russia brute forced their way? In this case Russia is slow because they can't brute force everywhere at the same time
@theedain
@theedain Месяц назад
Brute force, a misnomer. Russia attacked Avdivka methodically and v carefully.
@Mankorra_Gomorrah
@Mankorra_Gomorrah Месяц назад
Russia attacked the areas around avdivka and threatened to encircle the city. The Ukrainian command decided that the risk of getting all the soldiers in the area trapped was not worth continuing to defend the city and withdrew allowing the Russians to take the fortifications without a fight. The Russians basically did to avdivka what the Germans did the maginot although with more brute force.
@draculasneeze6681
@draculasneeze6681 Месяц назад
@@Mankorra_Gomorrah i love how when given an opportunity people always plump for WWII (it's as if Afghanistan and Vietnam never happened).
@SYD_EA
@SYD_EA Месяц назад
​ddraculasneeze6681afghanistan and Vietnam wars were very different in strategy and tactics. That's why people dont compare
@jannegrey593
@jannegrey593 Месяц назад
@@draculasneeze6681 What SYD_EA said plus the fact that World War is well known in the "World". While most of people Outside of US and USSR might not know the details of Vietnam or Afghanistan campaigns.
@General12th
@General12th Месяц назад
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
@BenjaminCherkassky
@BenjaminCherkassky Месяц назад
I do miss a bit the fun anecdotal outros, but nevertheless another great video!
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Месяц назад
I'm animating a spicy one at the end of a video on coups. Should either be the end of next week or the beginning of the following week.
@BenjaminCherkassky
@BenjaminCherkassky Месяц назад
@@Gametheory101 Ooh! I look forward to seeing it
@Timo0469
@Timo0469 Месяц назад
Nice👌
@risaradocz5440
@risaradocz5440 Месяц назад
Land gains more like grains 😂
@risaradocz5440
@risaradocz5440 Месяц назад
I hate my jokes }:(
@EEX97623
@EEX97623 Месяц назад
Ukraine is exporting more grain now than in the grain deal, and now Russia has fled the Black Sea
@doodsrem
@doodsrem Месяц назад
@@risaradocz5440This comment made your joke better! 😂
@andersgrassman6583
@andersgrassman6583 Месяц назад
@@risaradocz5440 It's ok.😊
@kengsenchong4010
@kengsenchong4010 Месяц назад
good rhyme wake up...don't giggle....
@kuil
@kuil Месяц назад
Both are slowly losing, but one has less (it can) lose. Who loses it all first?
@AmishMarine
@AmishMarine Месяц назад
Classic war attrition Ukraine never had a chance!
@senatorjosephmccarthy2720
@senatorjosephmccarthy2720 Месяц назад
Kuil, That's a new and true evaluation.
@Mosern1977
@Mosern1977 Месяц назад
Well, Ukraine has more to loose in this war for sure.
@edwinng7313
@edwinng7313 Месяц назад
its basically never tell your enemy your location danish frogman qoute in a youtube video
@boosterhuiz2779
@boosterhuiz2779 Месяц назад
Such good analysis
@stephenking27
@stephenking27 Месяц назад
I love your channel. It’s so informative.
@FrenchmansFlats51
@FrenchmansFlats51 Месяц назад
A good straightforward and logical analysis that hits the key points. Thanks for avoiding the sensational clickbait headlines like everybody else on youtube. I would only add that russia might be in attrition war right now, since they have the numbers.
@earljohnson2676
@earljohnson2676 Месяц назад
Great breakdown really like this guy he puts out some great material. You know your war that’s for sure thanks for another great video
@brucegordon9007
@brucegordon9007 Месяц назад
An excellent article, realistic facts and conclusions. Any "new" army will suffer when pushed against an experienced force but can learn as well. Ukraine has been able to pick ground that has given it an advantage and offense is much more costly than defense. Russians seem not able to count equipment loss like our Pentagon whom couldn't count artillery ammo going out /stockpile, have been wrong on both Afghanistan and the fall of Ukraine and took 18 months to figure out how to write a multiyear contract. Can't believe we actually pay these guys. You have had on several booksellers whom seemed very misinformed but have redeemed yourself with this excellent article. % land gain and loss was especially helpful.
@dillipinaction
@dillipinaction Месяц назад
good subtle analysis
@gabrielbalbec883
@gabrielbalbec883 Месяц назад
Ukrainians actually started building fortifications in 2014. Avdeevka was supposedly one of the best fortified towns in the world.
@MarvinWestmaas
@MarvinWestmaas Месяц назад
And the only reason the main fortification fell was the single orc who had a sudden rush of intellect to the brain, discovering and utilizing the drainpipe to get past the main fortification.
@mhhmsmfshsmhfh
@mhhmsmfshsmhfh Месяц назад
@@MarvinWestmaas Sounds alot like you're crying
@sliftylovesyou
@sliftylovesyou Месяц назад
@@MarvinWestmaas Funny that Russia knew about the existence of the drainpipe and Ukraine did not 😂
@MarvinWestmaas
@MarvinWestmaas Месяц назад
I smell $ubhum4n$, they reek 🤣🤣😂😂
@MarvinWestmaas
@MarvinWestmaas Месяц назад
@@mhhmsmfshsmhfh A Swede supporting orcs.... you must be a natsi 😂😂🤣🤣
@angliccivilization1346
@angliccivilization1346 Месяц назад
Those gains are compared to the Western Front in World War one. That means 10,000s for each square kilometer gained.
@berserkasaurusrex4233
@berserkasaurusrex4233 Месяц назад
Slow, continuous gain is safer and consequently worth more to the regime than a more aggressive push that might end in disaster. This is all about attrition and time is on Russia’s side. So long as they continue to gain or hold, they will likely continue the same slow push.
@drstepan1078
@drstepan1078 Месяц назад
I was thinking you were gonna say its because theyre taking time to build good defenses/minefields and such as they advance
@aaronbaker2186
@aaronbaker2186 Месяц назад
It feels like too many people miss that not only is the Ukraine war tactically more like WW1 than WW2 (e.g. trenches) but strategically as well. Ukraine, and I assume Russia as well, know that this is not a war of taking land, but of destroying the willingness or ability of the other side to keep fighting. If you look at the maps and onky talk about Ukraine taking territory or Russia taking territory, you don't look like a serious analyst. Hence why William talked about the mobilization. Remember that in terms of land held, Germany was decisively winning at the end of WW1. The Russian strategy is "take land because we have no idea how else to make Ukraine stop fighting." But the Ukrainian strategy is "keep hurting Russia until they give up." It is really hard for Russia to quit without getting *something* but Ukraine (rightly) feels that if Russia gets anything from the second land grab, there will be a third. For Ukraine this was is existential, so they kill Russians and destroy industry in Russia until Russia leaves.
@draculasneeze6681
@draculasneeze6681 Месяц назад
"take land because we have no idea how else to make Ukraine stop fighting." .... and "the Ukrainian strategy is "keep hurting Russia until they give up." Do you know what a strategy is? - these are not strategies at all.
@aaronbaker2186
@aaronbaker2186 Месяц назад
@@draculasneeze6681 well hmm, in war college I think I was taught that strategy, as opposed to tactics, was "how do you make the other guy decide to ask for peace instead of keep fighting." But hey, what does the US military know about war? We are renowned worldwide for refising to attack anyone or join any military alliance, right? So I guess what I was taught in the US military as an officer was probably wrong.
@friedrichzizek6700
@friedrichzizek6700 Месяц назад
spot on but u miss how russia methodically destroys ukraine. They destroy infrastructure, they (slowly) reduce their manpower, they destroy ADs etc. This war is way heavier on ukraines economy and population. Its very unlikely for ukraine to keep up the fight for another 5 years. In russia, besides the poor who get drafted, the war is almost not existent in the day to day life. Infrastructur works, economy is still normal and most of the population has no risk whatsoever to get mobilized. Ukraine hangs on western support, which may stop one day or reduce. The economy will maybe collapse at some point etc.
@robmar7190
@robmar7190 Месяц назад
Neutrality - peaceful people without a agenda playing one side against another’ all this would never have happened! Don’t invite a bully to your house that hates your neighbors!
@meatrealwishes
@meatrealwishes Месяц назад
Russia decided to take ukraine right after its independence. This is not even their first war.
@SkyDiver-wd5oj
@SkyDiver-wd5oj Месяц назад
@@meatrealwishes Russia did not bother Ukraine at all upon the USSR's dissolution. It was us (the US) who chose not only to continue with NATO after the Warsaw Pact was gone but to break our promise and continue expanding NATO East. The closer we moved the Alliance to Russia's border, the more insecure they got. When they got wind that they'd soon face up NATO's warships in the post of Sevastopol, they took action. We simply did not consider Russia's security interests valid and acted like they did not matter.
@KarlKarpfen
@KarlKarpfen Месяц назад
The way it seems from analyses of Russian equipment losses and remaining stockpiles, it seems like Russia may actually just be starting to run out of repairable vehicles and as a result, the fastest an advance can be, is the speed a man can walk. Then again, the defender has huge advantages in this war and the greatest advantage of the attacker, surprise, is completely gone after both sides adapted very well to the current state of the war. It's just very unlikely for any side to break this stalemate of lacking offensive power but remarkable defensive power on both sides of the front line. It takes a huge amount of additional offensive power for any one side to break this tie, be it the results of western wartime production for Ukraine, Chinese arsenals flooding Russia with arms or one side with a new weapon invention no-one envisioned so far, it needs such a change to get the front line moving again.
@hugoballroom5510
@hugoballroom5510 Месяц назад
Appreciate the analysis of the factors of Ukraine's resource allocation issues. One aspect i would like to see more depth on is the relative effect of taxing the Ukrainian domestic economy in favor of military strategy. The case in point in the video is the discussion of the issues of building both defensive fallbacks and counteroffensive capability at the same time. The issue was brought up only in military and political dimensions. In other words what "reserves" of human and industrial resources does Ukraine need to factor in just so that there is, after all, an economy to defend.
@sleepybokchoy
@sleepybokchoy Месяц назад
new lines on maps just dropped 🔥🔥
@fv5855
@fv5855 Месяц назад
UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE A FAILURE ?? Ukrainian Offensive began on May 8 th 2023 until September . In 5 Months TOTAL Ukrainian Gains .......................................321 Square Kilometers Russian Offensive Began on October 9 th , 2023 until Now In 6 Months TOTAL Russian Gains ..........................................106 Square Kilometers If the Ukrainian Offensive was a Failure what are You Russians Calling the Russian Offensive with Only 1/3 of the Ukrainian Gains ??? How Embarrassing as even Rusian Trolls cannot Spin this ......Massive Failure The Entire World is Laughing at the Russian LOSERS as Russia Collapses 😀
@okaforkosiso1474
@okaforkosiso1474 Месяц назад
"We are winning"
@wenterinfaer1656
@wenterinfaer1656 Месяц назад
Are you winning, son?
@markotoshich7676
@markotoshich7676 Месяц назад
I agree with your final comment. This is pure speculation with the nuance of bias.
@amymason156
@amymason156 Месяц назад
Is it difficult to detect glide bombs before they hit? If it's possible to launch an intercept, it should be easy to get them out of the sky since they're unpowered. Even just sticking a rocket with no warhead to one and deploying a parachute would work.
@salonitanicus
@salonitanicus Месяц назад
Their heat signature is insignificant making them extremely hard to detect and track. And those are basically "stupid" bombs so electronic warfare doesn't work against them.
@MartinBohun
@MartinBohun Месяц назад
Well, "Dr." Spaniel confuses kilometres with miles, he said 40 kilometers, but the glide bombs are dropped from a distance of *70-80km* (cca. 40 miles). There is not much you can do against a glide bomb dropped from 70-80km away, plus those glide bombs are inexpensive, and Russia has huge supplies of them, and developing more, in fact there is now FAB-3000 too.
@amymason156
@amymason156 Месяц назад
@@MartinBohun That does mean there's several minutes between when they cross the horizon and when they reach their target, and if anything happens to their delicate control surfaces during that time they will miss, most likely very badly. That seems like a lot of potential for foiling plans.
@nerd1000ify
@nerd1000ify Месяц назад
Radar signature is far more relevant here, the bombs are no different from a cruise missile I that respect. Most likely the issue is lack of radar SAM systems in range. For example, a Buk system has an engagement range of about 40 km, so it would have to be perilously close to the front line to engage the bombs. The Ukrainians have to keep their theatre air defense systems like S-300 and Patriot back to defend against constant Russian missile strikes on their cities, so their longer range is unavailable. Russia has the exact same problem which is why they are lobbing enormous glide bombs from 80 km away rather than using tactical aviation in a more traditional fashion.
@MartinBohun
@MartinBohun Месяц назад
​@@amymason156 well, here is my rough understanding of the situation, i got from reading/watching number of different Telegram channels that are posting the front-line videos, and some do comment and explain some of the technical details; the chronology is important: 1. First you launch the observation/surveilance drones, such as ZALA Z-16 (endurance 4+ hours / range 75+ km), those are providing the view/info about the battlefield, and among aother things i guess they are used to select targets for those FAB-500/FAB-1000/FAB-1500 glide bombs, and as well pass back coordinates of Ukrainian air defence systems, and other Ukrainian military hardware, vehicles, troops, etc. 2. Do not forget that the front-line is VERY LONG, and Ukraine has only a limited number of air defence systems they can use to protect (some of) their front-line positions. Russia has well over 100+ Su-34s that are used to drop those inexpensive glide bombs. 3. If one of those scarce and expensive Ukrainian air defence systems is detected near the front-line, then it will be targeted with number of different Russian weapon systems (kamikaze drones, artillery, Iskander missiles). You are welcome to "crack the numbers" yourself: the range (and cost) of those Ukrainian HIMARS M31 GMLRS rockets, the range (and cost) of Russian surveilance drones, the distance from which Su-34 can drop those FAB glide bombs, and the number of different Ukrainian front-line "strong-holds" Russia has been targeting with those FAB glide bombs. UMPK aerial bomb glide kit cost is given at around 25k USD, that is apx. 5 to 15 times less than the cost of one single M31 GMLRS rocket. Don't get me wrong i am not trying to say it is a walk in the park for the Russians, but Ukraine simply does not have enough air defence systems so they could protect all of their front-line positions, and protect all of their cities, factories, power plants, bridges, and all the other assets at the same time.
@seanmellows1348
@seanmellows1348 Месяц назад
Excellent work here.
@curious_gage
@curious_gage Месяц назад
The problem is that Ukraine expects everyone to keep sending them supplies endlessly. Then they blames their circumstances on the reduced aid. Doesn’t Ukraine realize that the only way they’ve held out this long is because of the generous donations made by the west. Show some appreciation rather than demanding more help that nobody was ever obligated to provide.
@SirAntoniousBlock
@SirAntoniousBlock Месяц назад
Da da da In mother Russia you don't blame state, state blames you.
@user-cx9nc4pj8w
@user-cx9nc4pj8w Месяц назад
Just ignore that document the USA signed to get Ukraine to give up its nukes in exchange for the protection of its sovereignty and territory. And how Ukraine is destroying the threat of Russia to the west and to countries the West is required to defend. And how if the West had provided more aid more useful aid in the past the war could be over by now, but no, tanks from the west had to be delayed, for no good reason, an aircraft pipeline was delayed, for no good reason, and things like ATACMS, HIMARS, cluster munitions and artillery shells, aren't provided in sufficient quantities for progress. And Ukraine is willing to hold on until it can make a counteroffensive, ut its not going to send its men to die so that stupid westerners can feel that its doing enough to deserve more aid
@ilyal5712
@ilyal5712 Месяц назад
@@SirAntoniousBlock JKF: Do not ask what USA can do for you, ask what you can do for USA.
@SirAntoniousBlock
@SirAntoniousBlock Месяц назад
@@ilyal5712 What has that got to do with Russian trolls?
@misterpinkandyellow74
@misterpinkandyellow74 Месяц назад
​@@SirAntoniousBlockgrow a brain nafo
@MrMrin
@MrMrin Месяц назад
Interesting aspect of the war covered in this video. I believe Russia recognizes the advantages of defensive stance is one of the reason. Another maybe usually aggressor in a conflict (in their own mind) tend to be more offensive - Note here I am talking about NATO vs Russia.
@k53847
@k53847 Месяц назад
The engineering assets you need to build defenses (which should be done by commercial construction companies) are not usable in the offensive. So the issue is that you have to pay for the work, not time or resources.
@kompatybilijny9348
@kompatybilijny9348 Месяц назад
Russia is gaining ground, because Ukraine is not attacking currently, because of manpower disadvantage. Russia is gaining ground extremely slowly, because it used up basically all replacement equipment and as such is now way more careful with it. Every vehicle lost now is too painful to bear, especially in comparison to the start of the war.
@AmishMarine
@AmishMarine Месяц назад
Wow! Do you really think Russia is running out of equipment? They are the 2nd largest producer of weapon systems and other military gear. They have enough weapons to be always at war, on multiple fronts, and in multiple countries just like the USA! Remember when the West was saying Russia was running out of missiles and tanks? The reason why Russia is importing weapons from other countries has nothing to do with the weapons. It has to do with moral support and as a propaganda tool. haha Wake up kid!
@justsumguy8193
@justsumguy8193 Месяц назад
They can make more equipment. Russia has a massive population and production base. Look at how many russians died in WW2. They will throw bodies and money into the war for years and years to come. They might end up losing 5x more equipment or manpower than Ukraine but as long at they win that's al that matters
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
You can only said it was "slow advance" if you're not following this war closely, It was a much faster advance than last year, this year Russia gain 85% more land than the Ukraine ever recapture after Kharkiv and Kherson.
@AmishMarine
@AmishMarine Месяц назад
@@VodkaPandas Ukraine propaganda never sites how these mysterious numbers are formulated.
@justsumguy8193
@justsumguy8193 Месяц назад
@AmishMarine what annoys me is those that push the narrative that the war is going badly for Russia. Forbes does this a lot with all of their articles on the war and so does thos channel. Russia can afford to lose people and equipment forever if they choose. It's become clear that no one in the russian government or the Russian people are going to stop Putin. He can keep this war going for another decade of he wants and gain absolutely no ground, but if year 11 is when ukraine stops getting funded by us or if they finally decide to throw in the towel, Russia takes the whole plot. I really want Ukraine to succeed but this blind positivity is so foolish. And the twisting of numbers and stats to suit the narrative of "Russia is foolish, Ukraine is much better" is doing Ukraine no favors.
@darsdm
@darsdm Месяц назад
Why does nobody speak about Ukrainian losses? According to your analysis, the number of casualties in 2023 counteroffensive was minimal, but Russia suffered huge losses taking Avdiivka. Is the game actually about depleting manpower?
@viktorgv7937
@viktorgv7937 Месяц назад
it may be so
@GothPaoki
@GothPaoki Месяц назад
If they were minimal they wouldn't have stopped. Unless you believe Zelenskys 31 thousand dead claim.
@sircatangry5864
@sircatangry5864 Месяц назад
Because Ukraine was not throwing people at trenches, due to lack of manpower. That's why counteroffensive reached so little, Ukraine had neither machines or people to storm the frontline.
@user-cu1er2nt7v
@user-cu1er2nt7v Месяц назад
@@sircatangry5864 coping so hard with this one xD
@kjj26k
@kjj26k Месяц назад
​@user-cu1er2nt7v Typical Orcbot, couldn't make sense even when it benefits them...
@Jacky-zt5ch
@Jacky-zt5ch Месяц назад
- Mom, can we have Kaiserschlacht? - We have Kaiserschlacht at home. The Kaiserschlacht at home:
@robertfoster347
@robertfoster347 Месяц назад
There has been a shift in the military balance of offense vs defense. The old solution to trenches and fortifications was tanks and mass. Now tanks are easily destroyed by soldier fired missiles and mass draws effective artillery. Drone make tactical surprise difficult. Both sides have found small assaults by dismounted infantry to be most effective. But this prevents breakouts that can exploit success.
@victorpaslay2062
@victorpaslay2062 Месяц назад
The real reason why russia is making the slow progress is in the technological advancements of this war. The area is observable everywhere by UAVs and cold-war machines do not work well here. Ukraine will face the same problem during the offensive and our gains will be slow unless we find the cure against the watching eye. Greetings from Ukraine.
@pogo1140
@pogo1140 Месяц назад
The cure are called jammers
@icemike1
@icemike1 Месяц назад
Our?
@Karifi
@Karifi Месяц назад
Where's did you live?
@sparkooctavian7941
@sparkooctavian7941 Месяц назад
@@icemike1 "our" means ukrainians. 'Cause he's ukrainian
@bacon9646
@bacon9646 Месяц назад
@@pogo1140some of the drones are now using ai so that’s starting to not work
@GothPaoki
@GothPaoki Месяц назад
So let me get this straight. Ukraine had an 880.000 army per Zelensky. In two years they lost 31k a ridiculously low number but somehow they're still on Def and their counteroffensive failed horribly.
@IconoclastX
@IconoclastX Месяц назад
And thats why they need 500,000 more men. Makes sense right?
@AgentDoubleOSeven77
@AgentDoubleOSeven77 Месяц назад
Ammunition shortage, they can’t do meat wave attacks and roll up in golf carts like team Z
@antred11
@antred11 Месяц назад
"In two years they lost 31k a ridiculously low number" Did they admit 31k dead or 31k losses overall? Because if it's the former then that implies a much larger number of overall casualties (because there'll be at least twice this many MIA / WIA / POW).
@GothPaoki
@GothPaoki Месяц назад
@@antred11 he specifically mentioned those were killed. Didn't say anything about wounded soldiers. He did say though that there were 180.000 thousand dead russians and more than 500.000 wounded.
@GothPaoki
@GothPaoki Месяц назад
@@IconoclastX why would it make sense when You're alleging that this is so one sided? It would make sense if the Ukrainians were out of Moscow by those estimations. And it wouldn't make sense you force mobilisation when your manpower is basically intact all things considered.
@user-ww5mu2ot9e
@user-ww5mu2ot9e Месяц назад
Please make an audiobook for your Russia Ukraine book!
@jannaZX
@jannaZX Месяц назад
Russia weilding shovels with computer chip taken from washing machines are still doing a creditable job
@ilyal5712
@ilyal5712 Месяц назад
Russian hackers are the best!
@prestencederien
@prestencederien Месяц назад
I think that the issue is that the are running out of minorities to send to ukraine. 350k kia from minorities is no big deal. 10k Moscovites is.
@glintongordon6811
@glintongordon6811 Месяц назад
Of the 2 armies is asking for 500k more soldiers and scraped the demobilization orders... It isn't Russia
@creature2479
@creature2479 Месяц назад
It still looks like Russia is winning the manpower war
@angeurbain6129
@angeurbain6129 Месяц назад
You are saying bullshit and i guess you know it.
@prestencederien
@prestencederien Месяц назад
@@angeurbain6129 My number is far far far closer to whatever kremlin has ever released. What was it after 2 years? 15k kia? I am sure you can call bullshit on that too,mr russian troll.
@horoshkoaleksandr273
@horoshkoaleksandr273 Месяц назад
@@angeurbain6129 what bullshit?
@blengi
@blengi Месяц назад
i thought that russia after retreating from 50% of initial gains, had its boats retreating from the black sea, its AWACS retreating from the azoz sea, oil refineries retreating from the international and local market. comprehensive military material inventory 3:1 retreating into oblivion according to world's most comprehensive open source intel etc?
@KolyaUrtz
@KolyaUrtz Месяц назад
ur delusional
@earljohnson2676
@earljohnson2676 Месяц назад
There was a release of info and they have the Russian numbers of troops and it was quite high very high n surprising
@draculasneeze6681
@draculasneeze6681 Месяц назад
i love a good factual quote, it clears up any confusion.
@kjj26k
@kjj26k Месяц назад
Details?
@Deltarious
@Deltarious Месяц назад
Since you asked for progress speculation: Attrition and logistics. The losses they are taking right now are *staggering* and it seems that most of the times they mass for a larger attack they are met with overwhelming counterattack from drones and artillery. Additionally Ukraine has been fairly aggressive going after logistics and really putting the squeeze on the lines. It seems like to me that this attritional style of fighting is costing them more materiel than they can muster currently. They do not seem to be lacking in manpower, that much seems sure, but we have seen increasingly bizarre and sometimes desperate choices in vehicles to lead attacks and to move troops to the line of contact
@ardentspy
@ardentspy Месяц назад
LOL. You're totally deluded.
@mikael.wilhelm
@mikael.wilhelm Месяц назад
" increasingly bizarre and sometimes desperate choices in vehicles" Wut, are you saying golf carts are no good as infantry fighting vehicles?
@misterpinkandyellow74
@misterpinkandyellow74 Месяц назад
You are living in a fantasy land
@vanjamenadzer
@vanjamenadzer Месяц назад
"increasingly bizarre" by slapping simply steel shack roof tops on a tank in order to completely render FPV drone useless isn't bizarre. It's extremely effective and we can expect some proper advanced covers for frontal assault vehicles coming soon.
@boonedockjourneyman7979
@boonedockjourneyman7979 Месяц назад
You have no idea what would create “lots of resistance” to Putin within Russian society.
@AvoidTheCadaver
@AvoidTheCadaver Месяц назад
Some random thoughts. 1. Russia making incremental gains gives the optics that Ukraine is able to largely hold them back which weakens Ukraine's argument for more materiel. "Look, you're doing fine at the moment!" Big gains by Russia might spook NATO into pouring more firepower into Ukraine. 2. Dragging it out into the summer makes any potential offensive easier to execute, but need to keep in mind point 1. 3. Drag out any major offensive action further and the height of the US presidential election campaign will distract the US. The possibility of Trump being reelected also may factor into the delay. Although, a possible Trump reelection might spook some NATO nations into surging their expenditure towards the 2% GDP target, which might make it hard for Trump to back away from sending in the troops should Article 5 be triggered.
@dankengine5304
@dankengine5304 Месяц назад
1. Its actually the opposite. NATO is only sending equipment if Ukraine can prove its capable. Russia making small gains is actually only because they keep taking losses and barely succeed. There is no other reason. 2. Summer in Ukraine is a terrible time to do an offensive, as the ground is muddy. Sure its better than spring, but to say its smart is not true. It’s been 2 years. This is the 3rd summer Russia has had. 3. Dragging out a war is already a bad enough decision. A modern war this long is unsustainable. In conclusion, Russia isn’t doing this for any good reason or because they’re clever. They’re advancing slowly because they can’t advance any faster. It’s an impossibility for them.
@phineascampbell3103
@phineascampbell3103 Месяц назад
"... Wordplay aside..." NO!!! NEVERRR!!! Wordplay NEVER aside. Always wordplay. Play word, and let slip the puns of war...!!
@axioms22
@axioms22 Месяц назад
This percentage talk is super not helpful in any way lol, it's about where those percents are
@Mosern1977
@Mosern1977 Месяц назад
They are in some fields next to the Russian front-lines in Ukraine.
@KenVet
@KenVet Месяц назад
Always a pleasure to learn from you. Best regards, Carry On !!!
@Yezpahr
@Yezpahr Месяц назад
When collab lines on maps with lines in sand?
@Bigvs.Dickvs
@Bigvs.Dickvs Месяц назад
A trench is also a line on a map!
@Gametheory101
@Gametheory101 Месяц назад
#facts
@2639theboss
@2639theboss Месяц назад
So is it Bigs Dicks and the v is just to get around the censor? Big vs Dicks vs? Like a royal rumble between Big and Dicks?
@Bigvs.Dickvs
@Bigvs.Dickvs Месяц назад
@@2639theboss The Romans had no U letter, they used V for both pronouncing it differently depending on the letter's position that could be easily distinguishable to be a vowel or a consonant. And yes, also go around the censor, it no likes me.
@aryanbhuta3382
@aryanbhuta3382 Месяц назад
@@2639theboss It's fake Latin. 'Biggus Dickus' but classical Latin represented the u with a v.
@SuhbanIo
@SuhbanIo Месяц назад
@@aryanbhuta3382 yes
@reedschrichte800
@reedschrichte800 29 дней назад
In WWI defense had the advantage. We figured that movement warfare in WWII made static defense obsolete. Currently, it appears that defense again has the advantage, since movement warfare has been so hamstrung by continuous drone observation and mines. Russia can obliterate any single piece of ground and then move in to occupy it. Though it's hard to see how this tactic is scalable to a comprehensive strategy.
@Fenrisson
@Fenrisson Месяц назад
This channel really makes geopolitics and strategy easy to understand.
@Crftbt
@Crftbt Месяц назад
What is the source for the captured territory percentages?
@debilman9065
@debilman9065 Месяц назад
profile pic checks out
@user-nh2to7im6d
@user-nh2to7im6d Месяц назад
Currently a lot of company run private militias are being formed. Lots of volunteers will apply because they know they will not do frontline duty and get a superb salary as a bonus. In about 6 months time, Putin will sign a decree transferring private mercenaries under contract to be incorporated into the army. It 8s also a neat trick for tapping into the money at these companies for training these recruits.
@JoseTorres-ry9qe
@JoseTorres-ry9qe Месяц назад
Its ammunition shortage and a lack of air power to project forward. Nomatter how you report it, the Reality always remains the same.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
Honestly, I'm not worried, you always lose land in war, it's just happens, and it will happen until the end of it
@collinsoconnor5843
@collinsoconnor5843 Месяц назад
Yes, kiev is also insignificant. We can afford to lose it, just the way we lost Bakhmut and Avdeevka.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 Месяц назад
What are you talking about? Please educate all of us as to the land lost by the US, France or UK in wars it’s been involved with, because you always lose land in a war.
@paperandmedals8316
@paperandmedals8316 Месяц назад
@@collinsoconnor5843 “We”? The only thing insignificant is your post.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
@@collinsoconnor5843 Kyiv and Andiivka. Also, I'm not worried, because this is what happens in wars. The Russians have taken less land that Operation Spring awakening, when the German nation was literally falling apart, the Germans still managed to capture more land than this current Russian offensive has, and did it in one month.
@F.R.E.D.D2986
@F.R.E.D.D2986 Месяц назад
@@paperandmedals8316 Are you talking to me? Example from the top of my head: Every nation against Napoleon Russia in WW1, and pretty much every other nation for that matter Germany after WW1 The entirely of WW2 The Korean war
@samo6083
@samo6083 Месяц назад
I have read many comments here and listened to the video, i am surprised literally no one has mentioned this. The reason why gains are so slow is because RUSSIA HAVENT STARTED THEIR MAIN OFFENSIVE!!! Like come on people, we literally just finished winter ( that hardest time to start an offensive) By all accounts Russia will start their offensive around may-june. So anything before then will obviously be slow...
@GermanTaffer
@GermanTaffer Месяц назад
Hmmm, letting the opponents establishing passive defense structures is actually not a good idea. The Surovikin line was really effective.
@samo6083
@samo6083 Месяц назад
@GermanTaffer but they are not are they? Hence the small gains that are constantly forcing them back
@CensorshipGenesis
@CensorshipGenesis Месяц назад
@@GermanTaffer - Although that's absolutely correct. The fact remain that Ukro corruption is such. That most serious defenses are not spawning. Due to the overwhelming corruption with many in there pocketing absolutely enormous funds! In the end, as usual, it's the low grade boots on the ground that pay dearly for it. Piling corpses all over the place. While they are not even reported so someone else continue pocketing for their so called "presence". In spite I say "Go Russia". It's honestly disgusting and revolting. Seeing the "small" people without alternatives. Bearing the load of #ZelenskiWarCriminal & Co!
@vanjamenadzer
@vanjamenadzer Месяц назад
@@GermanTaffer Yeah but UA are corrupted to the max and they lack everything they need to build proper defenses. The longer the war lasts, the more UA innocent soldiers who were abducted from the street to die in a trench all while their officials off shore accounts get thicker and thicker. Such a sad tragedy that is unfolding in front of everyone and yet the average western citizen is completely oblivious to the fact.
@jtmiv9637
@jtmiv9637 Месяц назад
Their advance is first and foremost going slowly because it’s the rainy season/ muddy season. The Rasputitsa. Literally every year RU-vid analysts utterly faceplant about the realities of maneuver warfare and the effects of the environment and weather. There have been three years of campaigning here, every spring and fall it’s the same story, RU-vid experts learn it by the summer campaign “oh yeah, rain and mud” and then forgot it by the fall second raid prior to the winter freeze. Stop repeating the mistake. That you did not even mention this ultimate “stasis-maker” that we have data on affecting movement dramatically going through WW2 and WW1 is maximum negligence.
@marlenfras5490
@marlenfras5490 Месяц назад
Good reporting. Thank you. Strong democracy
@StepDub
@StepDub Месяц назад
I like your reports. Honest and concise. Thanks.
@mungucitimothy3530
@mungucitimothy3530 Месяц назад
Considering Zelensky promised to be chilling in Crimea by the end of 2023, I'd say the Russians are more formidable than he thought.
@jackburgess8579
@jackburgess8579 Месяц назад
@@fv5855 >>"Entire World is Laughing at the Russian LOSERS as Russia Collapses" Congratulations! Not many toddlers can write so well.
@stevemawer848
@stevemawer848 Месяц назад
And Putin would be in charge of Ukraine in 2 to 3 days .... Just sayin'.
@no-bodymr6419
@no-bodymr6419 Месяц назад
@@stevemawer848 That was also said by the Western media. Invading a country with a size of France using only 200k is still going easy as forces would stress thin as they moved further deeper into the territory comparing German use 3 million troops for the France invasion.
@stevemawer848
@stevemawer848 Месяц назад
@@no-bodymr6419 Putin was a bit deluded to think the Ukrainians would welcome the "liberators" with open arms. People want out of Russia, not in.
@no-bodymr6419
@no-bodymr6419 Месяц назад
@@stevemawer848 the separatists in Ukraine don’t want part of either Ukraine or Russia, they just want to be independent from Ukraine.
@gromowigor9505
@gromowigor9505 Месяц назад
Shortages in ammunition supply are key to it. You cannot effectively fight with an ammo ratio 1 to 6.
@claudetteraymond8710
@claudetteraymond8710 Месяц назад
Maybe more beaver dams way up north of Russia should get help for the dams to remove some of its water
@danielwalther5841
@danielwalther5841 Месяц назад
The bigger picture shows a Russia in economic decline (lack of workers, e.g. Chinese banks refusing payment transactions, dramatic decline in oil production). Very important: the weapons stocks from Soviet times are running out and, despite the war economy, more is being destroyed on the fronts than is being replenished. And Ukraine is putting up this bravest resistance, even though NATO, Europe in particular is still sleepwalking and America's arms supply is politically blocked - damn it!
@MartilloWorkshop
@MartilloWorkshop Месяц назад
Europe has done a lot. We could do more, but based on GDP Europe has done more than the US. Denmark literally wanted to give all our F16 (untill the US wanted to buy Argentina's allegiance with some of them instead), and we did give all our Ceaser systems. There's not much more useful equipment to give away, so the rest will have to be new purchases
@kirrausanov
@kirrausanov Месяц назад
Steiner... Yes! YES! STEINER WILL LEAD THE COUNTEROFFENSIVE! IT WILL ALL BE FINE! FINE! (trembling hands removes glasses)" - a line from Mr Zelens'kyj's favourite movie. * "The war has ended, not necessarily to the advantage of Japan" - Emperor of Japan addressing the nation after (un)conditional capitulation in 1945 * Mr Zelens'kyj's swan song. I am standing alone on the stage in front of the drawn curtain. The empty prompter's booth... and box-office. Deafening silence. No limelight. No applause. No flowers. Disappointed audience have left me a long time ago. A cleaner is about to finish his work. The piano lid has slammed shut. Unbearable pain has brought me back to my senses. The show is over. * "When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn't become king. But the palace becomes a circus!" - Turkish proverb * "Put him on stage and remove a ladder" - Chinese proverb referring to bad performers. * "There was once a comedian who killed people with stolen jokes and was hanged by his wits' end." - H.Warner * "How pathetic the jester is, on the king's throne, How stupid the people who allowed it." - Robert Burns 1759-1796 * Пане Зеленський, сподіваюся, ви ще пам'ятаєте старе прислів'я рідною мовою: "Не по Сеньке шапка." Незабаром Україна стане однією великою Малинівкою. Втішає те, що Європа та Америка йдуть тим самим шляхом. До таких політичних проходимців і невдах, як Рютте, Джонсон, місіс Траст i... дo Вас пане Президенте, приєднаються Шольц, Бербок, Трюдо, Сунак і дідусь Джо. Почнуться взаємні звинувачення. Hа зміну обіймам i усмішкам прийдуть удари в спину. * “Ukraine shouldn’t sign anything with them at all - and let’s just fight.” - Boris Johnson, Kyiv on Apr. 9, 2022 * "Росія хотіла припинити війну в обмін на нейтральний статус України, який зобов'язав би Київ ніколи не вступати в НАТО. Водночас «коли ми повернулися зі Стамбула, приїхав Борис Джонсон до Києва і сказав, що ми взагалі нічого не підписуватимемо з ними - і давайте будемо просто воювати." - Давид Арахамія, в інтерв’ю Наталії Мосійчук (25 листопада 2023) * "Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has strongly rejected the claims that he interfered with peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the spring of 2022." - Kyiv Post, January 11, 2024
@bacon9646
@bacon9646 Месяц назад
@@kirrausanovspeak English bro I don’t understand your language
@LordOfChaos.x
@LordOfChaos.x Месяц назад
This is stupidity. This war should end. No matter which side loses. There will be no win for Ukraine if Nato doesnt step in. And if it does ww3 is inevitable. Russia wont bsck down as it can sustain itself if u ignore the western propaganda.
@kirrausanov
@kirrausanov Месяц назад
@@bacon9646 Use google translator, bro. (For the record: I am a sheila)
@TheStrangeBloke
@TheStrangeBloke Месяц назад
Functionally these slow advances are meaningless except insofar as they potentially could create a breakout moment. There were fears that this would happen after Avdiivka, but no dice. Russia seems to be hoping that they'll take another hillock and break the will of Ukraine - I am skeptical to say the least. My firm belief is that Russia is losing badly, and is entering the phase where they have only bad options. Give up and chaos ensues. Keep going and you make no progress. Try to mobilize further and the state collapses. So they're pushing because they lack any other credible theory for winning the war. I expect that f16s and increased support from Europe will be sufficient to keep Ukraine in the fight and even increase their ability to strike back.
@mikesnyder7961
@mikesnyder7961 Месяц назад
Putin throwing a Hail Mary that Trump will win, and the US will totally give up support.
@KingCreeper-1026
@KingCreeper-1026 Месяц назад
If you want to have an effective conversation about who is winning the Russo-Ukrainian War, you should first define what possible outcomes of the war would constitute the following: . Russia winning . Russia losing . Ukraine winning . Ukraine losing
@TheLumberjack1987
@TheLumberjack1987 Месяц назад
​@@KingCreeper-1026 well I'd say there are two big points which I think say it all on a strategic scale - is Crimea a safer harbor for the black sea fleet than 3 years ago? - is NATO getting weaker? The answer is quite clearly no to both, so Russia is definitely getting further and further away from what Putin would've seen as a win.
@marinblaze
@marinblaze Месяц назад
So Russia is losing, Ukraine is winning right up to the moment it surrenders, which will come in one year time.
@bliblablubb9590
@bliblablubb9590 Месяц назад
​@@KingCreeper-1026 Ukraine winning in the immediate term would be regaining all lands of its internationally recognized borders and all its deported citizens being returned, while deporting russian citizens that immigrated by the Kremlins will. Later, depending on elections and policies, probably joining Nato and the EU, while benefiting from the new found oil reservers off the coast. Ultimately becoming one of europes new eastern hydrocarbon supplier. Russia winning would be gaining all the oblast it declared russia (and potentially more) russifying the population and installing a pro russian puppet in what remains of ukraine, discrediting Nato internationally and giving China an incentive to expand its own sphere into the pacific.
@firstsecond-ft1qg
@firstsecond-ft1qg Месяц назад
Can you do a video about the territorial gains in the Black Sea.
@just_hris
@just_hris Месяц назад
Same happened in the winter war (they won in a few months but they were very slow initially)
@robertnendel1993
@robertnendel1993 Месяц назад
Russia's slow advance is likely because they are depleted, but another thought does come to mind - "normalizing the line of control" in the hope that some future peace negotiation cedes lands east of that line to Russia. It could be the Russians are no longer moving to "capture Ukraine", but are instead sticking close to their line of control to continue normalizing that line as some defacto bargaining position.
@rextidashi1585
@rextidashi1585 Месяц назад
Russia is out producing the entire nato how's it depleted😂
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Well, then Ukraine zero advance was because of they're losing then, lol.
@KayderimGameplays
@KayderimGameplays Месяц назад
@@rextidashi1585 They aren't producing new soldiers..
@IconoclastX
@IconoclastX Месяц назад
U.S. general just said russian army is 15% bigger than at the start of the war, lol
@urubissoldat5452
@urubissoldat5452 Месяц назад
​@@KayderimGameplays They just drafted another 147,000...
@DawudSandstorm2
@DawudSandstorm2 Месяц назад
From what I hear, the Russian military is very much hand to mouth these days. It's entirely exhausted it's active prewar arsenal of tanks and APCs, as well as its entire stockpile of ammunition. Once something is made, or refurbished, it's immediately sent to the front. They lack the output to perform a decisive push, but also are under too much political pressure to stop pushing and such burn resources at a rate that doesn't allow for accumaltion. Thus we get in the situation we have today where they are able to inch forward due to throughput and Ukrainian shortages, but lack the capability of performing decisive action.
@mikael.wilhelm
@mikael.wilhelm Месяц назад
Good point.
@draculasneeze6681
@draculasneeze6681 Месяц назад
bwahahhaa we've been hearing this for 2 years now, get a new song.
@DawudSandstorm2
@DawudSandstorm2 Месяц назад
@@draculasneeze6681 No??? I think the only think I heard related to that prior to recently was last summer, where Russians were complaining about lack of artillery due to counter battery. This is a more recent development.
@kjj26k
@kjj26k Месяц назад
​@@draculasneeze6681 We have not been hearing this for two years, get a new lie.
@tavish4699
@tavish4699 Месяц назад
exactly from what you hear, but what you hear doesnt mean is automaticly correct obviously refurbished newer models get sent to the front why woould you want to waste new kit on some grunts that need to learn how to use it first and will often times destroy it in the process its a very normal thing in war that the good shit gets send to the people that need it too say russia is depleted of gear ammo and vehicles is absurd russia is the successor state to the soviet union and inherited about 80 percent of all its military you honnestly think russia can run out of all they have in 2 years?
@domingoserna1538
@domingoserna1538 Месяц назад
It's very hard for them to change
@dreviluk1
@dreviluk1 Месяц назад
Did Ukraine defensively prepare before the full scale invasion. No is most probable answer unless 8m wrong. If they did possibly Russia wouldn't have swept through???
@lindsaycole8409
@lindsaycole8409 Месяц назад
They were dug in the Donbas as that had been going on for years. Hence why there was actually little advance in that area. But elsewhere Ukraine had not enough defense. Things have been very different if there were manned trenches along the Crimean border and the land bridge had been failed to be invaded by Russia.
@hombre-lobo5673
@hombre-lobo5673 Месяц назад
​@@lindsaycole8409Zelensky demined the south, so Russia took Kherson with no problems, also Zelenskyy by being a dumbass or a traitor didn't prepare for this war at all and said that the pentagon tries to destabilize Ukraine with their warnings about the invasion 😐
@arell943
@arell943 Месяц назад
Calling out the Polish colonel's perspective, the Current pace of the advancement of the Russian army is not a question of available living reserve or amount of soldiers nor Lack of equipment due to losses but rather a slow butchering of the Ukrainian nation and their army. Ukrainian GDP inflated more than a chinese one, Real population of ukraine nobody realy knows, Will people return to their homes after war, which homes i don't think so. Young people from ukraine living now in poland all i had spoken to told me they're not willing to return same as their parents. That's death by a thousand cuts, and waiting for right time gathering troops and arms.
@AmishMarine
@AmishMarine Месяц назад
Russia will repopulate the area!
@MrSlim325
@MrSlim325 Месяц назад
No problem boy, americans will fix demographics with millions of indians and africans, just like they doing right now in balcans anf gerlnerally in europe
@arell943
@arell943 Месяц назад
​@@MrSlim325 Learn how to spell and read with understanding, then try to troll : 3
@MrSlim325
@MrSlim325 Месяц назад
@@arell943 boy
@captainalex157
@captainalex157 Месяц назад
@@MrSlim325 dont blame the yanks for that, thats all on us europeans not controlling our borders, this dogmatic anti americanism is just dumb.
@Estreka
@Estreka Месяц назад
RU manpower reserves are really thin at this point. Another mobilization would certainly mean call-ups for ethnic Russians, a political no-no. There's also the calculus of draining any workforce currently employed in developing the military-industrial base. It doesn't do much good to send your tank builders to the front line if it means fewer tanks. There's also the expected exodus of talent if/when a mobilization order comes out. Also, officer losses from the last 2 years are still impacting performance on the ground. There are economic barriers, as well. Yes, there are hypothetical reserves to continue the war for 2-5 years on paper, but that's not realistic when the government has to continue social spending and prop up the ruble. Those tasks are only going to get harder as time goes on, and there's a doom loop here. The moment Russians lose faith in some facet of the economy, the whole enterprise is going to fall apart. Weapon degradation is also probably a factor, particularly aviation. No one knows the situation with the VKS. Speculative, but I would suggest the condition of airframes is worse than what's reported.
@Perspective.z0
@Perspective.z0 Месяц назад
What ab about ukraine manpower issues which seem by there own words more severe
@VodkaPandas
@VodkaPandas Месяц назад
Russia not even moved from their first partial mobilization on 2022, the manpower shortage was a Ukrainian problem right now.
@GothPaoki
@GothPaoki Месяц назад
Russia which hasn't even issued mobilization orders is thin on men but not Ukraine?
@miskakopperoinen8408
@miskakopperoinen8408 Месяц назад
@@Perspective.z0 Ukrainian will to fight is presumed to be higher. They have also just recently announced a new mobilization of some half a million new conscripts. Ukraine will be hurting in the long term, no doubt severely too, but in the Ukrainian perspective, this is a defensive and potentially existential war. Their willingness to tolerate losses is subsequently relatively quite high. Ethnic Russians have, to some degree, been disconnected from the war. A new general Russian mobilization that would pretty much require significant draft from ethnic Russians would risk a significant loss in the war support among the general populace; Few Russians believe that a loss would mean a significant loss of territory or even complete dissolution for their home country.
@GlobalResearch2001
@GlobalResearch2001 Месяц назад
As a war vet of 4 wars and a historian of Slavic studies I can tell you that you are clueless !! You don't know a thing about Russia, and even less about this war !! Stick to cooking or something !! The only hypothetical thing here is you and all that you posted !!
@GRIGGINS1
@GRIGGINS1 Месяц назад
Could be literally a lack of fuel.
@Sk0lzky
@Sk0lzky Месяц назад
It's not just or even mainly trenches or Ukraine having lots of strength in reserve, some really good analysts (and I mean ones with access to Intel not available publically) estimate that Russia would technically be able to take control over the land all the way to Dnipro within a few months but the equipment and, more importantly, life loss would be so far beyond replenishment rate that it would leave it too weak and vulnerable. The fact, that this is what they're doing consciously is backed by the character of their offensive operations and tight control of losses. They're basically doing what europe thought it was doing for the first two years (while it was, in fact, just hoping putin would give up if they throw some scraps). And btw ukraine is to blame as well, a lot of UA commanders are pointing out, rightfully so, that the main issue for a while has been not really materiel, but manpower. Sure, they've just signed the bill lowering mobilisation age to 25 but at this point it's just a waste of life I'm afraid, they're not gonna regain anything unless something really big happens. Oh, there's of course also the thing you mentioned a few months ago, where russia going all out would potentially be the straw that actually tips the balance of political will in the west and prompts them to treat the issue seriously.
@LiberalCounterpart
@LiberalCounterpart Месяц назад
1) The Russians are learning. Painfully slowly, but everyone who wrote them off after the shambolic early days was drinking the kool aid. They are beginning to play to their strengths more effectively as well as correctly identifying Ukraine's strategic vulnerabilities. 2) The worst of these vulnerabilities is the atrocious demographic situation. Russia is also in trouble, but have significant leeway in absolute terms, as well as to a much smaller extent in % comparison. If you really need a reality check, look at the Ukr population "pyramid". It's a graphic display of despair. 3) Ukranian military leadership at the highest level has not been overly competent. The courage, skill and creativity of the rank and file + lower officer classes have been the key to Ukr successes, in personnell terms. Not saying Russian command is highly competent, but there is no significant advantage for Ukr here. This is becoming increasingly apparent as defensive challenges in need of operational and strategic solutions begin to mount. I see no signs of a Hutier/Bruchmüller/(pre-1918)Ludendorff type coming to the fore on either side, which maximizes the effect of material superiority across the front. Small caveat being that Rus may have found a Brusilov. 4) Static defenses do not win wars and the "Surovikin line" has been overhyped. An offensive along 7 (last I checked) axes of attack against a prepared enemy without significant superiority in manpower and equipment was never going to work. The minefields helped a lot, but it was SF units with AT + helicopters that crushed the spearhead assaults, which then inevitably got bogged down in small unit infrantry fighting for trenches and treelines. If you want to keep up morale in an artillery-heavy battlespace, especially one full of conscripts, you need to keep them moving. That is an underrated/misunderstood element which makes elastic defense effective. I fear that a failure to implement this basic insight is sapping the fighting strength of Ukr defenders faster than Rus glide bombs (which, again, are especially effective against static defenses). Having prepared defenses is better than not having them, but absent "software" adjustments, tougher "hardware" will not change the current trend of the conflict. 5) Political failures on both sides drag down the military effort, but again, Russia simply has a much larger margin for mistakes (plus a surprising number of seriously competent technocrats). People forget how dysfunctional a state Ukraine was before this war. That doesn't just magically disappear because they're the good guys now. They've done better than expected, but not well enough to outlast Rus if things continue as they are right now. Summary: the Ukr situation is not good and has the potential to worsen significantly in the coming months. Artillery/AA supplies alone will not fix this. In fact, nothing short of a massive re-invigoration of the war effort, both internally in Ukr and on the part of its allies, can turn the situation to a point where any of its stated war aims become realistically achievable. If that does not come to pass I suspect ceasefire negotiations for a Korea-style status quo along the line of contact will begin before the rains in October, after another Rus summer offensive. I sincerely ask for intelligent people in the comments will explain to me how I'm wrong in my assessment, because I very much hope that I am.
@joachimfrank4134
@joachimfrank4134 Месяц назад
I don't think Russia would negotiate about any cease fire before the elections in the USA. Even if Ukraine would als for negotiations. Russia would wait, if Trump wins. If he does, they would continue attacking with new hope to grind down all of Ukraine. If not they can still show some openness for a cease fire at the status quo of the conflict line.
@mikael.wilhelm
@mikael.wilhelm Месяц назад
You could very well be right, but the "Korea" outcome is just 50 % likely IMO. The other 50 % possible outcome is that the war keeps on grinding for years on end, with only minimal change in control of land. Until either party is totally depleted and gives up, which I don't see happening anytime soon. The reasons I don't think Russia will overrun Ukraine and force a surrender are: 1) Russia has severely damaged its military in this war. The huge losses of qualified personnel makes it hard for them to coordinate large scale operations effectively, and the huge losses of equipment makes it hard for them to store up enough resources for a substantial assault, since anything freshly produced (or refurbished) needs to get sent to the front right away. 2) Ukraine has proven itself to be very good at one thing at least: wiping out Russian convoys, whether its armored vehicles or just logistics. There is a tremendous loss of equipment before it even reaches the front line. This is due to the ubiquity of drone surveillance, and enough HIMARS and precision artillery to at least take out the most essential targets. 3) The war has expanded to beyond the front lines, for both sides. Russia is targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, which will surely cause some hardship for Ukraine. But Ukraine is returning the favor by disabling Russian oil refineries. They have only had this capability for a very short time, and are already hurting Russia's economy. This will only get worse with time. 4) Russia _needs_ China's full support to win this war, and they aren't going to get it! As you may recall, Putin didn't dare to embark on this adventure until after he had gotten Xi to promise "limitless friendship". As soon as they shook hands on it, Putin acted immediately! But he was deceived... China will surely look after China's interests, not Russia's. And China's interest are actually to see Russia lose the war miserably and collapse, so that China can seize a fair chunk of Russia's Eastern regions. Which China _needs_ for both water and oil. For this reason, I fully expect China to stab Russia in the back at some time during this war, so they can be on the winning side and negotiate for some of the spoils. So my prediction is, the war drags out for a few years, Ukraine and Russia both suffer a lot, but Ukraine is held up under the arms by Western support, whereas Russia is on its own. Russia's "friends" are only interacting with it for their own benefit, like India buying oil from them (and demanding a steep discount! Some friends!). And then in the end, Russia breaks down, and is split in two. The Western part will be rebuilt under Western leadership, and the Eastern part will go to China. (Then history repeats itself, and the Western part prospers while the Eastern does not.) My confidence in this outcome is because I see very strong parallels to WW2, with Russia repeating Germany's role and behavior to a tee. Russia started out allied to Germany in WW2, but ended up on the winning side, and this time around China will do the same flip of alliances. Because China will look after its own best interests, and Russia is the losing horse.
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