RUSSIA-UKRAINE | First Thoughts on the Invasion 

This was obviously a video that I was hoping that I wouldn't have to make. The situation is Ukraine is extremely fluid and unfolding very quickly. So these are just some first responses to the questions that many of you had - and kindly posted on the community tab last night.

James: “Unfortunately, Ukraine will have to be given up.” Ukrainians: “Come and take it.”

Thank you for your input. I fully agree with your final thoughts. To me, the escalation in Ukraine has been tragic and surreal to witness. I fear we are indeed entering a new Cold War era. I think most people suspected a military escalation was imminent - but the scale of what is happening in Ukraine is beyond horrifying. The road which led to this is long and as you rightly point out, there could have been decisions made in the past to avoid it. But Violence cannot be the answer - it just must not be. Please stay safe everyone.

It's wild to see the revolution of thought on this conflict in only a month's time. This was an interesting video for that particular reason.

It's morbidly interesting to witness a "historic moment" as it unfolds. Wishing the best to the people and independence of Ukraine.

So glad I recently found your channel. Appreciate all your work.

Amazing watching this 9 months on, how wrong we all were about the strength of Russia's miliatry and Ukraine's chances of survival.

Been waiting all week for this!!! thank you for your work!

Thank you

Finally! I’ve been waiting for your commentary!

Thanks for the video, James, it's been difficult to understand what the future holds

Thank you for another well structured video. This is perhaps the most concerning video you have ever had to make and I appreciate the effort you've made to raise a higher level of understanding of the issues. Such a difficult time for those affected in Ukraine, my thoughts go out to them every day that this war continues.

Thanks, I was very interested to hear your thoughts .

Thank you sir.

Thank you, James, for sharing your analysis now rather than waiting to see how the situation develops. We are all trying to make sense of this historically unfortunate event. What do you think about barring Russia from the SWIFT system? More specifically, how would it affect regular people in Russia who rely on or provide financial support to loved ones outside of Russia? Also, how would it impact innocent RU-vidrs in Russia?

Thanks for your analysis Prof James. This is very worrisome.

So much information per take, wow!!

Great video, thank you for your thoughts on this

Your detailed analysis are so good and informative Prof. Ker-Lindsay. Thank you for your great work!! Respect!

Really good analysis

Great analysis professor. Thank you for the video

Nice to hear you speak candidly

Thanks for this. I happened to start watching your channel recently because I wanted a better understanding of the former Yugoslavia. I really appreciate the objective and non-partisan tone of your videos.

Thank you Professor James. In Brazil, we have been hearing from our Ukrainian community about the war and many were shocked by Putin's aggression. I wish Brazil will welcome these unfortunate Ukrainians escaping Putinist empire. 🇧🇷❤️🇺🇦

Thanks for those analysis. Would be interesting to see a video from you how you assess the talks that have been taken place in recent weeks and the diplomatic strategies that have been followed during such.

Loving the old framed Bank of England note behind you. I stumbled across you in a video about Nagorno-Karabakh which was very insightful. Now, I find you in the comments of a video about video editing. Eventually I found my way to your channel and I really enjoy your analysis and insight. Thank you!

Great video! Most of your videos focus primarily on history and only have a minimal of discussion on the current events. This video is not like that. I hope you make more videos like this, where you discuss current events. Your speculation is simply at a higher level of sophistication than most people's speculation. We would like to hear more of that.

Thank you and I also would have preferred that this was video did not have to be made however it is helpful to try and gain understanding.

Great video James - STAND WITH UKRAINE ❤

Fantastic video

Great video professor. I would however add just a couple of extra points. 1) will other nations now look to build nuclear weapons for their own deterrence? 2) does this impact the west's ability to negotiate with countries on defence? Ukraine gave up its nuclear arsenal in the 90s on the pledge that they would be protected and this has not happened. North Korea has based it's nuclear program on deterrence and can now point to Ukraine as an example of why they need them, and why making deals with the west is not a viable solution. The same applies to Iran. Who have equally similar desires. Does this situation make it harder for the west to negotiate the surrender of irans nuclear ambitions?

Morally I find the invasion appalling. Leaving aside the moral aspects. I just cannot understand how this is in Russia's interest. The only way I can make sense of this invasion from an amoral perspective is if he is looking at military interests over political/economic interests i.e. making it difficult to for the West/NATO to conduct a ground military attack on Russia. Secondly, he may want the oil in the black sea and shale oil in Eastern Ukraine. In other words he is valuing territorial gain, military interests and energy interests above economic and international relations interests? This one is so difficult for me to understand. Very nice to listen to your perspective to understand the Western perspective. It is a very informative and detailed explanation of Western thought.

Amazing to watch old videos back when people believed that Russia had a functioning military

Ooooooooh! Better late than never 🤓. Another great piece James

You're great, James.

At the time, I also thought Russia had a strong military. I'm glad we were wrong. Unfortunately, we were also wrong about the sanctions having much effect on the Russian economy.

Hi Prof James. How can someone do a PhD with you?

I have seen many of your videos, and already have a pretty good understanding on your stance towards Turkey. Just wondering your opinions on the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits. Should Turkey allow Russian ships through or not in your opinion?

China just announced that Ukraine's territory and sovereignty should be respected and urged talks between Ukraine and Russia as soon as feasible, China calls for diplomatic resolution to the crisis.

Woohoo! Back again from just being all-around busy and a break from YT, but as always, I hope you're doing well. It's unfortunate what's been happening. The scare of WWIII is very apparent in the governments, and it's very anxiety-inducing with how cautiously the West is acting. With the news of troops moving into Europe, all of the views of Europeans and Russians I've seen are very puzzled and exhausted, and I can't say I blame them. Honestly, as an American, I'm kind of more scared of China. They're a bit more unpredictable, and the distance factor is also at play (West Coast here). And I won't lie, I don't fully understand, but India allying with Russia means that they are in a way allying with China, right? We all know about the relationship between India and China, what in all bless is going on?! Ultimately, stay safe everyone! ETA: wording

Excellently put with an objective take. As are your other videos. However I note that there is a lack of videos regarding military actions by NATO and the USA (and it's coalition) such as Kosovo and the Iraq War. Perhaps if you do an analysis of under the rubric of international law that be great!

On the day of Ukraine independence and as we hit 6 months of this war. I would love to hear an update of this and what you think.

What do you think about people comparing this to the situation in Czechoslovakia in the 1930s? Do you think it's a comparable situation?

Hi Prof James thanks for the video. Do you think that an invasion of Taiwan could follow especially taking into consideration China's position towards this invasion?

UK defence minister subtly hinted the UK will be supporting and propping up the resistance in Ukraine. He didn't want to give away too much detail for security reasons, but said the UK has ways of supporting the resistance even if Zelenksy is overthrown.

Would love a video on Finland & Swden. Not in Nato, but are part of EU. I'm quite worried.

Hi professor, I see you are flooded with comments, and have probably been asked this a dozen times. How do you rate Putin's chances of holding on to power in the event that Russian objectives are not met? Or that the cost in economic and reputational damage is so great as to out weight any purely strategic/military gains?

I would think Georgia would be the next target. There is already a Russian presence and it's a non NATO member

Do you think that Russia can divide Ukraine after taking control, and then releasing the western half and keeping the eastern?

Thanks Prof James, how do you think this invasion will impact the position of the south-east flank of NATO (Romania,Bulgaria,Greece,Turkey)?

As a African I really hate the idea of international piece because the world system we have right now is only peaceful for the west and it’s allies everywhere else is either poor or surrounded by countries that are collapsing I think it’s really high time Westerners take a step back and look at what’s going on and say maybe we need to look at the international order and maybe we need to split power a little more evenly

11:30 as a Cypriot I do not think we will ever join NATO. Mainly because Turkey will veto our entry.

I'd like to know what average russians think about this. What's their opinion on the invasion, on Ukraine, on Ukranians, on the Ukranian goverment, on Putin, on NATO, on the EU, etc?

I agree with much of this but there won't be many questions about who takes the seat at the UN for the same reason South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Northern Cyprus and Transdniestria are not represented at the UN - countries basically don't support violent annexations bc it might happen to them...

I want to share my quick thoughts on the future implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, particularly on Professor Ker-Lindsay's points on a new Cold War and a similarly feared invasion of Taiwan by China. Just like in the last Cold War from 1945 to 1991, I envision the world being divided into two spheres of influence of democracies led by the US on one side and autocracies led by Russia and China on the other. As a person of Filipino origin, I have a genuine fear that if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan, the Philippines could be among the next targets for a Chinese invasion. It is frankly disheartening to see that we're regressing back decades to an era where great powers engage in acts of territorial conquest through violent means. Only time will tell how this moment that we're living through regardless of wherever we are in the world, would be analyzed in the textbooks of history.

Thank you sir, for a concise, rational and informative narrative, appreciated.

Thank you for your work Proffesor James. I'm wondering what are your thoughts on EU and NATO pressuring Serbia to implement sanctions against Russia (something that unsurprisingly isn't very popular in Serbia). I must admit I was very distraught yesterday when I heard about the invasion and now, hearing the west criticism and calls to comply with their policies, I'm even more worried. Why won't they leave us be now that they have their peace in the Balkans and Serbia has been "tamed"?

How on earth Russia managed to bully Ireland ? 😳 What really worries me is that if all that works for Putin others will jump on the trend technically braking the international system

James, I saw one notable absence from your analysis, what about Moldova? It's case is essentialy the same as the Baltics except they have the breakaway region of Transnistira and are not a NATO member. If there is a 2nd country that will fall after Ukraine, it will certainly be Moldova. What do you think Moldova should do?

First of all, this was another great analysis professor. This is a rather sad turnout of the events and a beginning of a new Cold War. A small scale invasion was to be expected but a full scale invasion of entire country is a really surprising development. First of all there is no discussion about the fact that Russia broke international law. They are clearly aggressors in all of this and the victims are poor people of Ukraine who are now dying and whose homes are burning. Sadly this could all be avoided whit a little bit more common sense and pragmatism from all sides. Now I would like to share my opinions and insights in motivations and mistakes of all three sides of this conflict, that is Russia, Ukraine and West. This will be a bit long. As far as Russian motivation for all of this, in my humble opinion it is a geostrategic. Putin seas NATO as a hostile alliance to Russia, and Ukraine as part of NATO would be in case of any future conflict between Russia and NATO a fatal disadvantage for Russia. Sadly since the collapse of Soviet Union there was not one instance where NATO took the Russian interests in consideration, but it has almost always acted against the Russian interests. The most dangerous precedent was a NATO intervention against Yugoslavia in Kosovo War against approvement of UN Council. In Putin’s mind it has showed that the NATO will intervene when it deems it necessary for its own interests irrelevant of UN Council or international law. Now Kosovo War and independence is even today very controversial topic and I don’t want to discussed it here any further. There is a good video about it at this Chanel which I recommend. The fact is that this created a precedent for Putin and justification for his own interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. So this together with NATO expansion eastwards reinforced the Putin’s idea that NATO is there to get him. And it must be said that this is not only his opinion in Russia. Most Russians seas NATO as hostile power and even many opposition leaders in Russia have a negative view on NATO. This is actually not very surprising taking in consideration two last great invasions of Russia in 20th century, especially Operation Barbarossa in WW2 and devastating effect that it had on Soviet Union and Russian collective psyche. So the Russians are really anxious about any possible hostile force on there western borders. Also since Putin is effectively dictator NATO is a really good distraction for domestic problems that Russia faces and that are the real source of growing opposition to his regime in Russia. So any real of perceived NATO provocation is really good justification for his totalitarian regime to Russian people. Nevertheless I do believe that this current escalation of Ukrainian crisis was a last resort for him, and that he did wanted to avoid it, and with some assurances from either the West or from Ukraine that Ukraine will not join NATO this invasion could be avoided. But these assurances were not given and we are here now. As for the future we are now in a new Cold War. As for Baltic States they are save, since they are in NATO. Putin is a dangerous man but he is not an idiot and he knows that attack on NATO member means World War 3 and that he will not risk. But regarding Sweden and Finland I really hope they will remain neutral, cause a possibility that they could join NATO could antagonize him and there is no telling what could happen. Sadly I believe that Putin’s Russa has no future in a long run. It is an oppressive regime that is build on unsustainable foundations. Whit time it’s people will became only more pure and more miserable until they don’t rise up again in some violent revolution and topple this regime as they did before. There population is shrinking on alarming rate, and many who are smart and educated enough are fleeing to the west. Now concerning the Ukraine they are the ones who deserve our sympathy and are true victims of geopolitical games between two far mightier players that is between Russia and NATO. But seeing these images of Kyiv in flames and those faces of refugees I can’t but feel a bit anger of have they handled this entire situation. First task of any government is to provide peace and stability to its population and that means to avoid a war, especially a war like this one that you cant win and that will left you devastated. Ever since Euromaidan they showed no effort to avoid confrontation with Russia. We have to be honest here in the west despite our sympathies that are, rightfully with the Ukrainians, that a Minsk agreement was not implemented from Ukrainian side. Instead of trying to integrate the secessionist peacefully they tried to resolve the crisis militarily. Instead of respecting the rights of Russian minority and Russian language, there rights were actively curtailed and suppressed. Now it is understandable a antagonistic feelings of majority of Ukrainian population toward Russia considering the events that have transpired in there country. But the responsibility of the government is to take actions that are not popular but are necessary for stabile future of you country. Not to ride the populistic and nationalistic wave to gain popularity as many Ukrainian politicians did. What is even more sadder is that the really had a lessens from a recent history. They could see what happens when you antagonize Putin on example of Georgia. They also could learn how to play smart with Russa on example of Finland. Finland was stuck between NATO and Soviet Union, that was far more prone to interventions and aggressions that modern Russia. Finland came out from cold war as stabile democracy and prosperous nation. And when it joined EU she could enjoy full benefits of membership. Sadly the Ukrainian politicians were not up to the task of navigating these dangerous waters, and Ukrainian people now suffers. Speaking of incompetent politicians that brings me to the West. I really am not sure what did we expected or what did we wanted. For 8 Years we were supporting Ukrainians in there confrontation with Putin. We sent some weapons, what we sent more were mixed messages, that we will stand with Ukraine and that an Invasion will not be tolerated but at the same time that there will not be military confrontation with Russia. We implemented sanctions that didn’t do anything significant, and at the same time we continued to buy a Russian gas. These threats to Putin and so called hard stance bring votes. Our politicians know that, cause people love to see how our prosperous and free nation will stand against oppression and tyranny. The problem comes when the other side seas you bluff and test you. And now what. Our thoughts and prayers are with Ukraine but our soldier stay in their basis and the Ukrainian people will suffer. We will lament them, support them, put the Ukrainian flags on our Facebook profiles and that’s it. We will not go in war against Russia, cause our politicians, despite their tough words and sometimes idiotic statements, are in fact advised by some people that are not crazy. People that know that war of Russia and NATO in this moment, would probably mean global suicide. They known that since the start of this conflict. Putin also knew that. But we continued to send mixes signals to Russia because of beforementioned reasons. But that is not what bothers me. What bothers me is that a couple months before the star of the Russian Aggression on Ukraine, Putin reached to us. They proposed an agreement demanding a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and some honestly saying unrealistic things like retreat of NATO from east and even an expulsion of some NATO members that share a border with Russia. Now this demands are unrealistic, but that is how negotiation goes. You set your realistic goal, which in this case I believe was a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO, and then you set some unrealistic goals so that you can settle with opposing party on your realistic goals. Unfortunately no one on the West event tried to negotiate. Our position stayed I would say rather idealistic, and that is that Ukraine is an independent country and that they can choose their security policy. No one tried to negotiate. And now we are here. I cant but wounder what have we accomplished. The Ukraine is good as gone. Our tough words will be there for Ukrainian people to suffer. And we are in a new Cold War. I just don’t understand why are we here where we are now. Maybe will future show something that I missed. Maybe someone tried to negotiate whit Putin and gave him a guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO but that his further demands were unacceptable, I don’t know. I just know that as it looks to me now. West has spoken tough but we were bluffing. Putin knew that we were bluffing. He called our bluff and offered us a compromise, we continued to bluff, so he invaded and the Ukrainians are now paying our bluff. And I really hate the global reality in which a have awoken to on February 24th.

James Thanks For Great Analysis Of The Situation in Ukraine. There is Strong Feeling Among Neutral Observers That Ukraine Got in This Situation As A Result Of There Failures To implement The Minsky's Agreement. Any Truth On That?

I cannot understand how Putin could think that occupying Ukraine would be a good thing for Russia.

4:50, It's a very difficult message to bear, I just can't believe we can sit idly by and allow Russia to defeat Ukraine.

A balanced and thorough overview of at least one side of the story.

An absolutely horrific few days. I know the possibility of it happening has increased over time but it doesn't make it any less shocking to actually see. In your opinion how much of Ukraine do you think/ expect Russia to be able to hold?

Kyiv, please. Not Kiev. We shouldn't enable and legitimise the murderous aggressors in any way. Thanks for the video. 💛💙

What about Finland? Could they be pushed closer to NATO after seeing what is going on in the Ukraine? Could that escalate tensions with Russia possibly leading to armed conflict between Russia and an EU nation? They fought a bitter war in 1939 after all.

It's interesting to watch this today. I think Ukraine has surprised so many people with its heroic resistance. Many of us completely underestimated the Ukrainians. The war crimes committed by Russia since its invasion makes any talk of abandoning Ukraine unimaginable now.

Prof can you kindly do a video on why Russia has invaded Ukraine?

Fasinating James, thank you

Can you do a video explaining Pakistans visit to Russia while the invasion was happening? Very interesting. Also as to why India has not condemned Putin

Prof James do you think the US and EU sanctions to Russia for recognized the independence of the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk has lead and force the Russian to attack Ukraine? Its very clear that Putin had two options, plans for war and talk at the same time, but I think the reason Putin choice war is because he view the US and EU sanctions has shut down future hopes for peaceful talks. What is your thought on the matter? Biden must know this too, and why does he want to see Russia attacking Ukraine. Could this have anything to do with selling their own gas to EU?

Do you think that Russia may only try to keep a portion of Ukraine? Maybe the land east of the Dnieper plus Kherson and Odessa? This would link Russia to Transnistria, which would grant some leverage over Moldova.

"Strong russian military", yeah, this aged like milk in 2 days.

war war never changes

Brilliant video as always, it would be great to explain how the NORD STREAM 2 influenced the current situation, how funny that after Olaf Scholz got into power the dynamics in Europe and Russia changed.

Had Ukraine fallen easily and the Sanctions had been weak, then Russia had already as a minimum invaded Moldova and Georgia maybe more by now. But I’m also convinced that the PRC had invaded Taiwan, if the weather permitted. I think the Ukrainians and EU’s strong response, have made them think it over a bit more.

The comments section on your videos is so much calmer and more mature than on most channels. I fear that will change as your audience inevitably grows!

This reminds me of Sudetenland nearly a century ago… indeed worrying times. Thanks a lot, James, for your thoughts on the situation!

China stepped back their level of alliance with Russia with the press. They clarified that the China-Russia relationship is based on non-alliance, non-interference and non-critical instead of China supports Russia. They said they support Ukraine and their soveign rights including not recognizing the Donbas region, this is in line with their view on taiwan as well. But they are also saying whatever Russia is doing in Ukraine is between Russia and Ukraine, so i feel that they have actually kept quite consistent with their foriegn policy so far. Also i believe China is very happy, if NATO enters the war full scale China just have to stay put and they may have a chance of global hegemony just like how US stayed mostly out of WW2 and emerged as the global hegemon cos it didn't suffer a lot of damage.

I see it was surprise to russians as well as to westerners. Guys, we ukrainians will never give up, even in case when russia use nukes, we suffered enough under their rule and if we lose, it will end for ukrainians. Also i surprised about thoughts that Kyiv will fall after 3 days. That's just imposible! Look at battle for Mosul (2017). Coalition taked the city with pop 1.5 mil. after 9 mounths of fighting. With full air domination and artillery. Witch isis does't had. In Ukraine even encirclement operation of Kyiv(that 2 times bigger than Mosul by population and 4 times bigger by area) is extremly hard. To take our capital, russia needs full mobilisation and years to do that.

Good assessment, horrible situation. Two big factors will be whether the Russians are going to successfully achieve the objectives in a reasonable time, and what sort of insurgence the Ukrainians can muster if Russia succeeds - both will influence Putin's hold on power in Russia.

What is the risk that Russia will set her eye on invading other former Soviet states in the Caucuses such as Georgia, Azerbaijan, etc.?

Thank you for this analysis on the situation from multiple angles - including the role of China and the future of NATO. The situation is very worrying - and yes, I have Ukrainian friends who are extremely worried and anxious with most of their families are under bombardment. Overall, I am a little disappointed with the level of sanctions and I feel we haven't gone far enough - but I can also understand that it is easier for me to say from France as our energy dependence is less and same cannot be said of many of the other member states - the SWIFT payments mechanism expulsion is the only sanction that could have a real impact but the EU seems to be against it for now. And yes, it is Putin who is doing this and not Russia - and the way to stop this is the hope that the average Russians start protesting against the regime. Even assuming Russia has a military victory, it is not an area that they would be able to govern - not to mention the disgusting propaganda that the Russian establishment has been pushing. On that note - I wonder about some of the dangerous precedents this has set - can any country legitimately move their troops into a region by recognising a separatist force as an independent state (like what Russia did in Donetsk and Louhansk) ? Other hawkish countries could easily deploy this strategy or recognising a separatist movement and then move their own troops in. Is there any precedent to this ?

Before we so quickly pivot to China-Taiwan, perhaps we can backtrack on the issue you mentioned in closing. Consider a scenario where this tragic moment serves to awaken a critical mass of the Russian population from sleepwalking within their authoritarian state. The state control of the narrative in Russia was always leakier than China's with their Great Firewall (as well as linguistic and cultural barriers). All of the collateral fallout for the Russian populace from this seemingly isolated event (not to mention the deep people-to-people and historical ties) may push the society to the tipping point. Why so quickly overlook the not-insignificant protests against the war in Russia and fast forward to the post-Putin era? The longer the Ukrainians are able to resist, the more pressure builds up within Russia. Direct military is out but absolutely everything else should be on the table to counter Russia. This has the world's attention so the possibility of a black swan event is not zero. Of course, our thoughts have to be with the Ukrainians at the moment. Truly inspirational, heroic even.

Thanks Prof. Hindsight is much easier to analyze isn't it. The one problem I have in all this, and I've never seen anyone over the years challenge him on it is, he always talks and acts like NATO has some kind of recruiters going out and recruiting all of these countries to join NATO and oppose Russia which couldn't be further from the truth. The simple truth is that all of these former USSR countries are running to NATO only proves one thing, there is only one aggressor, only one bully, and only one psychopath in the region. Yet over 20 years he has been allowed to direct that narrative to the point where no one questions it.

Your analyses are always on point and fundamentally respectful of the core Human elements. Thank you for your work, Professor.

The best case scenario I can see at the moment is that Russia seizes half the Country splitting it into two regions East (Russian) /West (Ukranian. Both sides line up on their sides and a ceasfire is declared. Russia then negotaites with Ukraine and says it will withdraw but will take (liberate) the Donbas Region which will then be Russian. A hefty military presence is then put in place along that line and things calm down.

What area you talking about? I have never met one Irishman who is afraid of Russia. Being neutral has worked very well for Ireland and I don't think they should join any alliance.

It's heartbreaking to see conflict return to Europe.

And it also looks perplexing while it doesn't appear odd not recognise People's Republic of China as a representative country of Chinese people but you recognise only Taiwan as a genuine representative of Chinese people-- What rational explanation can anyone give ?

Professor, I see many people, especially from outside the main Western circle, talking about the inevitability of conflict because of NATO expansion. It sometimes feels like apologism for Putin, but they still raise some interesting points. Some of the arguments I see floating around are that that allowing further advancement of NATO would open up the possibility of support for internal dissidence against the Russian central government (with mentions of Serbia, Lybia, Syria and the Euromaidan) , that Ukraine is too geopolitically important for Russia to let drift into a hostile sphere of influence, and, centrally to both previous points, that reconciliation between Russia and NATO was never pushed by the latter after the Cold War. It'd be interesting if you could explore this sort of views and their historical validity.

The line will be moved again.

James, can Russia be removed as a Permanent UNSC member for this?

We pray for the people of Ukraine.

This is an excellent synopsis of a very fluid situation, and you are right to highlight the many people who are being killed and suffer because of Putin's actions. I share you concern for the Baltics, but I am also very worried about Moldova. If Putin manages to set up some sort of puppet state in Ukraine, this will connect Russian-controlled territory to Transnistria, and it would not be that surprising to see him finally recognize that breakaway region too. There are already Russian "peacekeepers" stationed there, and as Moldova is a former Soviet republic as well, I can imagine Putin convincing himself he had some sort of duty to take all of Moldova as well. Anyway, thank you for your video, as always!

I’m curious what you think about the possibility of Russia invading other non-NATO members after this. Moldova, Georgia and even Azerbaijan seem like possibilities

Since this a channel on nationhood and statehood, how about a video on governments and nations in exile. e.g. if a puppet Putin government is installed in Ukraine the legalities of a Ukrainian government in exile. I always find very moving the fact that formed the current Polish government he considers itself the successor of the Polish government in exile in London the last of the governments in exile that found itself in London during the second world war.

Is a comparison between the current absurdity of this conflict and the afghanistan invasion by the Soviet Union suitable or fitting? After all, the Soviet Union tried to replace Amin with Kamal and that didn't work out... The conflict in Afghanistan was less hated by the workers of the Soviet Union than the current conflict by the people of Russia, does that mean that the Soviet Union invasion of Afghanistan had more support by humanity than the current conflict?

Also Lavrov used twice the example of "TRNC"