Hope Autoline and Munro do a quarterly discussion like this. There is so much change happening and it would be good to hit some of the biggest changes of the quarter and see how trends are holding up. Nice job Autoline and Munro.
At least once a year. That gives enough time to do a proper retrospective on whatever was discussed in the previous episode which a shorter quarterly discussion would not.
@@mandarinandthetenrings2201 Yes, I have been closely following Tesla since late 2019. I do believe the other factor is just investments in EV tech are finally reaching high levels. The pace of change was slow due impart to lack of investment. Tesla kicked the doors open and now there is a race to improve. Tesla's problem solving company culture is willing to break norms and tradition. This has been a fa tor of the pace change as well.
I really enjoyed this episode. Besides the guests, I love that everyone, not just John and Gary, where throwing questions and stories at each other. It was like, walking in on some guys talking in the family room.
Congrats Autoline on 100k+ subscribers! When these 4 guys are together, I would watch a 4 hour video of their discussions. Let’s make this every few months.
@@andreiionescu205 When you get older like Sandy you don't really care about what you say much. You'll say what you want to say and to hell if someone doesn't like it.
1:29:28 note that every car with FSD hardware is capable of training in shadow mode and providing data back to the mothership for FSD training. That hardware is also used in the autonomous safety features that come with every car. Also, every car now sold by Tesla comes with basic Autopilot (autosteer and TACC) included. So it's not wasted even if the owner never subs to FSD.
@@simoc24 Cory is the president of the company. It is cory's job to do this stuff. The handing off of relationships is not "grooming". Cory is more competent than any automotive CEO. He does not need to be groomed.
@@_PatrickO He's smart, but it still takes a long time to groom someone to be a big industry executive, it's all about the relationships in addition to the knowledge.
@@anydaynow01 That is a lie. His lack of a business background is why he is so good. The last thing you want is a president or CEO that has a business degree and thinks like a business person. Business people just move stuff around and collect big paychecks while doing nothing. Tesla is successful because they do not hire people with business degrees and replaced managers with software so engineers self manage. Tesla competitors cannot catch up because half their payroll are managers that contribute nothing of value to the company. Managers are paid more, so tesla likely has 2-3 times as many engineers as any similar sized company because other companies waste their payrolls on managers.
@@_PatrickO Really good stuff you wrote. I love the study of Tesla. In history they will be studied and revered for being the very first modern company ever in the world that used blunt, self deprecating honesty as a major tool for gaining public support. Cory got it really wrong when he said Elon isn't eloquent on stage. Elon carries with him a blunt honesty and integrity that is palpable, and when he speaks, you know you better damn well listen because he doesn't speak like a typical manager who uses arbitrary politics to steer the conversation. Elon has an eloquence that is totally umatched, and it's because of the transparency and honesty. Tesla has turned the entire world upside down by showing that honesty actually wins in the end.
Congrats on the 100K John! I do remember that I originally learned about Sandy Munro from your show, specifically the one where he was talking about tearing down the BMW i3. I watched that and thought "these guys really know what they're talking about!" Keep up the great work!
Yea, then it came out that the Munro was secretly a Tesla investor while devoting majority of his time on social media to pushing Tesla left and right. Absolutely disgusting. Lack of basic integrity.
Listened to this twice so I could take notes on 2nd listen. Amazing stuff. Thanks guys. Congrats John on the 100k here's to a million been enjoying the content since 2010
It's crazy how VW can post 4 pictures of a concept, & they're "beating Tesla to market". Yet Tesla spent 4 hours detailing their strategy to manufacture a 25k car, & the masses are bored. Thank you for sharing all of your experience with the rest of us.
@@guylr7390 True. However, the average internal combustion vehicle will be more than double that price and barely profitable while Tesla will have nice profitability.
I'm with @Guylr on this one... So much high tech and new manufacturing standards and they cannot get their fabrication gaps in order!!! 😳 I own a 23 model Y and a 2019 eTron and the finishing quality and manufactured details is not even close. Model Y liner is FREAKING plastic! For a 60K+ car??? Really?!?! I'm glad our model Y is my wife's car and not mine.
VW have publicly stated that they take 30 hrs to build an ID3 while acknowledging Tesla takes just 10 hours to produce a Model 3. VW are throwing Billions of $$$ at developing the doomed Cariad software without any hint of success while safe in the knowledge that their MEB platform is far far behind the industry leaders. We need VW to get back to world class form, but sadly they are doing a really terrible job of attempting to compete with industry leaders. VW have been in possession of Teslas Model S blueprints & plans, freely published by Elon in 2014 and they still can’t produce a EV to match the 2014 Tesla model!! BW have been given every opportunity and thus far have failed miserably. They even shot themselves in the foot by sacking Herbert Diess, their visionary former C.E.O. I hope they can do enough survive.
Thank you Autoline for bringing up wraps vs paint. Since so many sports car enthusiasts already put custom wraps on their cars, it seems the auto industry could save a fortune returning to Ford's old idea of making cars in one color.
Every "Tesla fanboy" (yes, I am) was discussing wraps immediately after the presentation. I'll go further, "plastic" (composite) panels, (not using carbon) Clip on, cheap. . (I wrote this before Sandy mentioned it at 22:00 )
I hope plastic body panel elements are much improved because I remember the days of faded hoods, roofs, trunks and fender tops from the older days. They lasted about 3-4 years before they were embarrassing to drive.
This is right. I stopped watching John for a few years and now it's almost like I'm in a parallel universe. Props to him for being able to recognize evidence in front of him and change his stance.
I interviewed at GM Tech Center as a graduating engineer in 1980. They talked about all the pay and benefits. I was more interested in the engineering and what I could contribute. They would not acknowledge the Japanese competition. The Tech Center was beyond amazing. So much talent and potential.
Wow I didn’t realize that was 2 hrs. I thought that was an hour. I was waiting for Gary to talk about the rare earth material Tesla is scrapping in the motor. Tesla just has a way of changing the way things have been done. Love it let’s do it again.
Congratulations on 100K Subs. I've been really enjoying this forum. The talent on the panel has been solid. It's like I need to apply for college credits. I hope you get to the next milestone soon.
A very enjoyable episode indeed. While John has clearly seen the light following a “Road to Damascus type conversion” Gary appears less convinced. Does Gary doubt the now clearly inevitable writing on the wall?
You guys are great together. There's a lot of reciprocal respect, and everybody brings a different slant which makes the analysis much more interesting. By the way, Tesla will pass up GM around October, 2025 based on monthly sales. It could be sooner if ICE vehicle demand falls. You won't need to wait until 2028 or 2029.
Elon has a stretch goal of 2M for 2023. With a poor macro-environment, I think it will likely be less. But that same macro-environment would almost assuredly drive GM's sales lower in 2023. If Tesla can increase sales 50% in 2024 (in line with Tesla's historical CAGR and their current guidance) and GM continues to have sales declines, 2024 may be the year that Tesla passes GM in sales. That said, I also think 2025 is a good prediction-however, based on monthly sales, I would guess before October.
My take-away from the Tesla investor day was the display of management strength. It amazed me that nearly every one of them had been at Tesla for a decade or more, and all of them were still relatively young!
Munro Live is doing a great education job, but Autoline has done a great education job for the auto industry for decades. Autoline's global news allows its viewers to understand the global scale of the auto industry and it's issues, not just what new model is coming out and the corporate strategies behind them.
This was such a great episode! Really enjoyed this group of guys getting into the details and devoting the time to not just have sound bite conversations. Excellent program, kudos to all!
It was clear that some people that have no expertise except complaining, will not get the investors presentation. Is good that people like Sandy and Cory that understand so much about the car industry and the manufacturing process are soooo excited. Good job having them on your channel.
Man, listening to you guys is fun. Me? My wife and I have been driving a 2013 Fiat 500e since it came off lease in 2016 and I live rural…. Very rural, very North and very West Humboldt County California (73) I’ve been a California car guy my entire life and we make a little cobbled together EV with a hunskie of range work. It is, the Fiat is ideal/meant for in town go to job or run errands. At this it is a great vehicle. Would be a greater car if we lived in town. I happened to have a friend that bought one of the first Teslas on the market. She was very proud of her car as the first time I saw it was at a car show (l immediately made her promise to give me a ride) My sb 1947 Studebaker PU was in the same show. Man I was rocket man and sold on the future (and excited). Thanks Sandy. Thank you very much. Chris aka acmechris
This is a great episode! Loved hearing Cory and Sandy’s insights from their time visiting Tesla’s GigaTexas plant and their observations. Fantastic show, John!
My family was all Toyota. Half the cars we bought in the last 30+ years where Toyota or Lexus. Now we are all Tesla. We still haven't bought as many Tesla's as Toyota's. We now have 3 Tesla's.
Amazing to see you four hold an in depth panel like this. Way more info than I could have imagined from one event. I hope you continue to do these. I'll be watching this one over a few more times till the next one comes out.
Here is a fun comment on John McElroy's video. The large picture/painting behind him is tilted to the left about 3/8th of an inch. A picture behind Sandy's right shoulder is tilted left as well. :)
From 41:15 "kiss it goodbye, kiss it goodbye, kiss it goodbye..." & the ensuing few minutes of witty gems!! Sadly, Sandy's memory is clearly going, as he often struggles to find the right word, but Jesus... that head is so ful of knowledge & seasoned ability to take the (frustrated) p155 out of the Big manufacturers over their risk averse stew-piddity. He's so freaking hilarious & entertaining. For FREE!! You GOTTA LOVE SANDY MUNROE!! The guy's a rare genius in every way. The world is a better place with Sandy around 👍💗
The thing that most impresses me about Tesla is the success of Gigafactory Shanghai. They are literally outcompeting Chinese BEV OEMs (the most competitive BEV makers on the planet)...in China! I think BYD is studying Tesla Investor Day and planning their factory revamps and corporate restructuring now. Tesla and BYD will dominate the automotive industry in the latter half of this decade.
I think someone in the industry needs to ask Tony about a statement he made in the third(?) part of his short series in 2022, where he recounted a meeting "with general" where he predicted (paraphrased) a country reliant on (variable) fossil fuel sales, but with a relatively unstable food source(?) attempting to secure that supply by force. His prediction was for this to happen "early 2020's. (Prophetic) ...... Now follow that line of thought to when there's a crisis in the Petrodollar economy (inevitable) Which country might try to maintain the status quo? I'd that country is *fully* invested in the new technologies, they might have a way through the crisis. . Bears thinking about.
She avoids saying the “T” word. Here’s how: Barra first made the prediction to CNBC in October 2021, replying “absolutely” when asked if she thinks GM can catch up to Tesla by the middle of this decade. She let’s the reporter say Tesla. 😉
Great point, Cory. You have brought the ancient figures up to date. And then to add all the extra 'value '(that abuseds word) as the strengthened pillars, sensors, dwell wipers etc. etc. ! So much more going into modern vehicles compared to older ones.
Maybe I am over optimistic, but from where I’m sitting,with the factories that are being built and when they’re going in production, like the one in Mexico, and the further ramping up production in the other existing factories.I believe that Tesla will reach the target out selling GM sometime between I’d say 26 or 27. I believe that 2028 is a very conservative number.
All you really need to do is chart General Motors annual production for the last 10 years, Draw a line through them to establish a trend and you will see that General Motors is essentially out of business by 2026. Tesla probably will exceed their production by early 2025.
I'm going out on a limb ... GM making Tesla Superchargers (branded as GM) and receiving "grants" to provide cashflow rather than a direct "bailout". If GM (etc) still can't make profit, let them die and spend the equivalent of the bailout where it's most effective. . The most important objective at the moment (and moving forward) is for "a country" to be in the new game. The IRA (late, and reluctant) is the only opportunity for the US to be in that game before the Petrodollar economies start having "issues". (Don't shout at me.... It's going to happen!)
Great conversation and insights. Thanks. And congrats on 100K subs. BTW - Tesla also saves money by not advertising and not selling through dealers (who mark up the EVs). And no dealers means Tesla has direct control over price so they can better manage delivery backlogs. Also Tesla doesn't wait until the next model year to introduce product improvements or cost savings into the production line.
For someone who "doesn't advertise" Tesla sure does show a regular marketing expenses in every financial report. Wonder where this all money goes... surely can't be astroturfers, it absolutely cannot be that at all!
@@SkywalkerWroc they do have a “big” marketing budget, still less than 1/10 of GM 😅 they do make videos to post on Twitter, and Semi day or Cybertruck day costed millions to do those one day functions. The most expensive is probably Giga Berlin opening event. That was HUGE Actually, they DO do some advertising in China, once in a blue moon
Wait till people need service That day is here Did you know more Teslas are being registered in Ukraine war zone? Odd Wonder what they need wrecked Teslas for? Bombs maybe? I know they use batteries for drones. But Lithium make for great rocket fuel The Tesla wars will be blamed on Musk when they start. It's real easy to make a bomb drone with a wrecked Tesla. Forget about molotov cocktails we got oxygenated gun powder now.
Back in the 1950's, My dad had a bunch of equipment that was designed for SIX VOLT. He was able to obtain some EIGHT VOLT batteries from a local battery maker. As I remember they worked fine for starting those older trucks.
3 reasons why a cheaper electric car should be front wheel drive: 1. Centralization of wiring, heating, cooling, wires, pipes, radiators etc for the cabin as well as for the motor. 2. Generally speaking FWD is safer. 3. Most braking power regeneration can be extracted from the front wheels as the back obviously gets lighter during braking.
More in disbelieve or not understanding (like me not understanding the constant FUD agenda and twisted statistics in mass media in spite of the facts)...
I can remember my dad’s mechanic talking about 6 volt vs 12 volt cars. I thought the switch was earlier but 50s is right. I googled it and it said 1955 was the year when almost cars went to 12 volt.
Great video! Gary, we love you, but you should have watched the Master Plan Part 3 before joining. It covered pretty much all of your questions. I hope that after this video you realize how far ahead Tesla is… it seems that in one of your more recent videos you still thought others have a chance. As for when Tesla would outsell GM - Tesla grows volume by 50% a year, so 2023 would be 1.8-2m, 2024 2.7m, 2025 4m, and 2026 it will sell 6m vehicles, surpassing GM (assuming GM does not shrink in which case it might oversell GM by 2025). And amazingly enough, Shanghai, Berlin and Austin are all designed to produce 2m vehicles, so they can surpass GM without even taking Fremont or Mexico into account. Shanghai itself already does 1.2m run rate… so it can definitely do 1.5m easy, so will Berlin, Austin and Mexico… so just 4 factories can exceed GM production 🤯
Gary will not change, he has been saying the same silly things for years. He would never be able to watch investor day, the info would just go right over his head
I was wondering what was going on last week with those guests. Nice to hear another perspective but they were operating on some old as assumptions. My guess is 2025, maybe 2026 that Tesla surpasses GM in total vehicles sales. Tesla is going to crush everyone in profits long before that though!
Thanks for this show. Love the story of complacent industries time and time again thinking they will never fail. Scottish ship building is gone, English car companies are gone, all taken over by other countries that invested in their people.
The in-house OS rings really true for me. I built a simple order processing system for our family business in 1990. It’s still in (expanded) and the only software required. Numerous vendors have pitched replacing it with sage/sap/oracle etc for telephone number prices and admitted defeat at proposal stage. In house for the win!
