SELL NOW. Major Bank Warns of a 30% Decline in House Prices. 2022 Canadian Real Estate Market 

The rich Chinese stopped coming to Canada in 2016. Only the poor ones are emigrating to Canada. Virtually all the immigrants presently coming to Canada are penniless with most coming from Nigeria. This can only push down wages and the cost of living for all of Canada so consequently this will put downward pressure on real estate prices not upward pressure.

Lots of peapole leaving Canada as well plus birth rate is negative,those immigrat that come might leave aa well when they see how expensive cost of living in Canada is

I agree, it all comes down to bad monetary policy and extremely bad leadership.

Yes I remember Harper saying our immigration is too tame and Canada will not have any presence until we get our population to at least 60 mil. The idiocy behind this is that the economy must continually grow, so every political party keeps a steady stream coming in. Who does this benefit - not you or I.

Canada is run by evil people who kidnap children. Adr3n0chr0m3 I don't understand why people are surprised when the Canadian government does things to harm their own country. If they can bury innocent children under school's then who's safe from them?

Thanks for the comment, interesting to hear the same tune is being played in the states.

But that is a fact, inventory will be a problem for the price decline. You can't build new houses for the price that would justify the investment. Lumber is up, gas is up, labor is up, everything is up. The number of new units postponed or put on hold/canceled is around 43% last I heard. No one will drop the price of land as most people who own land didn't buy it with a mortgage. It is also an illusion that inflation will be at 2% anytime soon. That only means the prices will go up even more, at least for some time. If the house price decline happens, it will be a short burst of defaults, those who simply can't make payments. And guess what, those who have money will buy those, not the poor people. I am very pessimistic. The only solution I see is rising salaries, which would generate not only more buying power but higher taxes as well because many people would slip into a higher tax bracket. Because even if the inflation gets lower, it will not become deflation, and prices won't go down for most commodities. I just don't see the soft landing they are talking about. I myself am in the process of building a brand new house, priced very high. I am not going to sell, I will keep it even if rates go up for another percentage or two. Many people who own real estate for a while are still up even if the price goes down another 10%. I think the wishful thinking is the buyers who think they will get affordable housing. The only option I see is new construction booming in smaller cities where land is still somewhat cheaper. And I have my doubts about that as well.

Its weird we have to wait to get supplies to build new houses, shortages and supply issues and because of inflation on construction material, makes one wonder why you would build with all these conditions, if house prices are going to tank.

true

I built two house next too each other in a infill, and getting material and the delays, was costly, Im not building until prices come down and supply back to normal, who wants to build when your paying more for materials and supply issues as the same time houses as a whole are coming down because of higher interest rates.

Thanks, I’m trying to remain neutral in my mindset but all signals, economics and basic math point towards sharply decreasing property values. I will keep actively researching to stay on top of things.

@@jonflynn Depends on your region. BC AB or ON get hit harder then places like SK or MB

The loophole where the foreign Chinese payoff the "poor" locals cash to put monster homes into their name to avoid paying any capital gains tax on real estate needs to be closed. Presently they payoff the poor local Chinese but if that loophole is closed they'll payoff any poor local. The big problem out west is the foreign Chinese whereas the big problem in Ontario is the local Chinese. The Bank of Canada has to finally address the root cause and include local Chinse in their policies. I've seen Chinese friends sell properties back and forth to each other in Markham and Stouffville continually to push up values of entire neghbourhoods.

I agree, stupidity on top of stupidity.

@@parkerbohnn As if the land transfer tax and foreign speculation tax/ban were non-existent lol. Just realized this is a vid from 11month ago. it’s true some factors are driving the market down, but there are also many other factors that drive up the market. Namely, the immigration policy that turns “foreign” Chinese into “local” Chinese. 😂

Yes, so many people told me that same line, if I don’t buy I’ll never be able to afford. I told them they’re buying out of fear which is it good. Some listened some didn’t

people who bought last year gained 20% equity. if they refi'd they'd be sitting on cash now for the correction. currently down 10% we can expect 10% more. not much but be patient for a good sale sept-oct

I remember awhile ago back in February 2022, the main talking point is that because material costs and labour costs are ever going to get higher, it's just basic math that house prices will go higher as well. Even if the interest rates go higher, material costs and labour won't go down just because interest rates go higher, it just doesn't make sense that all of a sudden construction workers are willing to drop down 30% of their hourly rates, material suppliers will drop 30% of their prices, just so the house prices will drop 30% as well. But I think one thing they are missing is majority of the price of properties is the land, not the actual house on top of the land. Maybe the value of land would go down? Or maybe both the land value will decrease, on top of that, the construction industry will get a hit and contractors will cut each others throat as well as materials will go for cheaper and cheaper options? Any thoughts?

@@Cleffa168 We built a house in the late 80's. Soon after recession hit and contractors were giving houses away to their trades and suppliers to cover their debts.

@@easternwoods4378 By giving away, I assume you mean giving away dirt cheap but not free correct? So that contractors at least have some money to pay their debt, but they making losses? Thanks for sharing, some similar previous cases are good examples we can look to to try to gauge what's going to happen.

No problem.

Hopefully the gooberment won't siphon all the equity from your property through increased taxation. SOMEBODY'S gotta pay for all the pandemic cerb!

It will change. Thanks for sharing your story

Thats the most important thing, to buy a house we can afford if house prices go up and down dosn't really matter unless people have to sell, buying a house should be a long term thing. in 20 years houses will be worth a lot more regardless.

Even if you go upside down why care? You are paying less than what you would with rent. I bought in 2014 for 151K and I pay far less than rent and my rate is 3.75%

Everything depends on monetary policies coming out of America. If quantitative easing and interest rate suppression is ditched indefinitely (Ben Bernanke's legacy which didn't workout for 90 percent of the population) your home will fall off a cliff in value. This is the worst case scenario. China is still a net seller of U.S. dollars today. We also don't know how long the war in Russia will last but do know the U.S. Fed is so far behind the interest rate curve runaway inflation after the midterms this November is a real possibility starting in 2023. Canada is looking at stagflation and the U.S. is looking at runaway inflation starting in 2023 after the midterms are over. Inflation should take a second leg up starting in 2023 in America and a brief decline coming into the midterm elections.

good for you think about just yourself

Yep, you're golden.

Thanks, much appreciated

The trend is in your favour

That's crazy, the real estate market has definitely become the wild west.

A drop of 30% is so insignificant relative to a 300% increase!

it looks like it can only go one way at this time. Congrats on the house and thanks for the comment

Thanks

Thanks, next weeks will be a shocker, big price drop to report in my region.

No problem, thanks for watching

Yoy waited?., are you happy now.,? sorry but prices went higher., this stupid real state did not encourage you to bye but encouraged the owners to sell., so it is still ok for him.

hopefully the market will be in your favour soon

Hi Justin, Yes, I'm in Niagara Falls and a few years ago the city did the same thing. In the beginning it was a big deal and the bylaw officers were knocking on people's doors and threatening them with fines etc. After about a year of that everything blew over and many operate illegally still. The timing of London's changes may have a greater impact on house and rental prices since people will either want to sell or convert to long term rentals as you stated. Either way it will hurt many investors cash flow and put some in trouble. Thanks for sharing.

@@jonflynn Good to know. Thanks

There's no specific numbers, I wish there was. Many can ride it out for now depending on when they purchased, but as soon as all those tenants shift to buying in a few years from now they will have vacancy problems and have to reduce rents or sell which will ultimately prolong the bear market. Some will have no choice but to sell now or go power of sale if they can't rent or cover expenses due to higher interest rates. There's a lot that can and will happen.

@@jonflynn as house prices drop and those currently renting decide to buy, will there be a corresponding reduction in rental prices?

@@feeiazabdul433 I believe so but that will be like phase 2 of the crash, it will come later on.

Hey, sorry Cornwall is one of the few real estate boards that are not part of our system the closest real estate board I have access to is Kingston Area, they are down 10% from March Highs and it looks like Ottawa area is down 10-12% from April highs. I know Cornwall was lagging behind areas closer to GTA due to distance away etc. I also referred a buyer out there at the end of April and the agent told be they were still having bidding wars so they probably peaked in late April just like Ottawa. They will most likely suffer significant price decreases this month and will continue just like all other areas in Ontario.

Thanks

Thanks

Thanks

That's a tough one, I guess it depends how big your mortgage is and how the higher interest rates will affect you. Either way if your house is worth less than your owe/paid one day you'll have to reassess

You’ve obviously been use the from agents. Did you notice how I don’t solicit buyers or sellers in my videos? When i say sell now I’m referring to owners with. Secondary properties, flippers, people downsizing, relocating etc.

Thanks

prices will go back to december 2019. 45% decrease in one year.

The big players are trying to minimize the damage before it happens

Thanks for sharing I think it will be under $600k for sure. We’re already at $711k from over $800k in only three months

No problem, thanks for the comment

I’m guessing 10-15% lower than now

Thanks for letting me know. I’m my area they’re an insurance company

Thanks for the info

I’m sure there will be many stories like this soon, thanks for sharing

it changes the price but not the payment, actually the payment is more will and is more expensive right now until the price drops catch up. You're still better off buying at a lower price and higher rate in the long term since sooner or later the interest rates will go back down and you'll have a lower payment and smaller mortgage.

Probably.

Will check it out thanks

Even 30% works for me.

@@ronmurray7349 You never know!!

it will be interesting for sure

Are you high ? Double digits lol... What are you on ? Crack is whack

If your downsizing or buying a cheaper house then nows the time, if you’re upgrading then wait until the market gets much worse.

@@jonflynn Thank you sir!

@@jonflynn so if i sell my condo 50k above what i paid for 2 years ago . i buy it back in a year 50 k cheaper ?

Thanks for your comment

where abouts do you live? Just curious .. I dont see things crashing b/c that encourages more families and more babies.. think agenda 2030

It started a couple of months ago, but it looks like it will gain momentum in the next 3-6 months. We should be well into it by the end of the year unless the government starts printing a bunch of money again

@@jonflynn Which cities will be hit the worst and which will be safe.

Glad you liked it!

Good choice, save yourself a couple of hundred thousand.

Thanks for the feedback

When the banks are selling peoples homes, but probably next year at the earliest.

Such a mess, if interest rates fall it’s because the economy is crashing

Not sure if there will be a crash, but if so, when do you think that would occur? Im reading prices might increase again a bit before 2023

@@cnote3598 I think it will be a slow burn crash just because they are still pumping money into the economy and manipulating the markets. I believe so you that it will take another year before we start to see significant price reductions and foreclosures. But maybe it will come quicker if inflation continues to rise.

It’s sad that bank buy ins and withdrawal freezes/austerity measures are a legitimate concerns. Thanks for the comment

thanks for sharing, we're ahead of the states and europe is probably what I meant .

Do you have a big mortgage and little equity?

Did you take a fixed mortgage or a tracker ?

Did you get a variable. If so, rates are going up again. Maybe look at locking in your interest rate.

wait one year, should , the crash will be 45% down.

@@cherifhajebrahim4740 Nice can't wait

Condos will get hit hard in my opinion. They will be closer to 40-50% in some cities

@@jonflynn Yeah do u think its going to be by end of this year? or is it next year?

@@sum7866.. next year

Thanks

It’s most likely double what they report

Probably more in Vancouver

No problem, I live in Niagara Falls

This reminds me so much of 1989-1990 in Toronto. Rising unemployment did indeed unravel the economy and the recession of 1992 was particularly bad. Banks ended up with a lot of underwater mortgages and mortgagees walking away. Unemployment eliminates options.

Thanks for the feedback

Watch this weeks video, I revisit the supply/demand debate. You're probably right about the large metro areas but they also haven't had the same increases like many of the other areas. The biggest declines will be in the suburban areas.

You should be in good shape by then unless things get really bad

If Jerome Powell drags things out with half point rises in the Fed funds rate you might be wafting a lot longer than you think. They still have to list the month over month CPI figures but will try to snowjob everyone with their year over year infaltion figures which should start to fall in the second half of 2023. Rents in America will be fully factored into the CPI by March 2024. March 2024 could see the very top in interest rates in America. Biblical prophesy says the ongoing war in Russia will persist for a long, long time not just a couple of years. It all meshes will the great famine and worldwide inflation both predicted in bible prophesy. I'll know when March 2024 rolls around. I can honestly say in my entire life I've always been able to pick the top of the interest rate cycles within weeks but usually can only tell within a short period of time if that is the top of the interest rate cycle. I can't tell a long period of time in advance. When rate topped in 1990 it took another 7 years for home prices to hit bottom so the average 9 to 5'er takes a long time to catch onto things. I always tell everyone on ZeroHedge and Wolfstreet when interest rates will make a long term top or a long term bottom under the name The Real Tony. All my comments are there showing I've been spot on in the past and have yet to be wrong. I've been correct back to the early 1970's

Interesting, thanks for sharing I'll be keeping an eye on these places.

Corrupt communist officials from China need to stash their ill gotten gains somewhere.

Thanks for sharing, I was taking a guess on the timeline by the info on the asset bubble graph

it's about the only place in the country since they didn't have the yoy or MoM gains like the suburbs. It will be interesting to see where they're at in 6-12 months. Thanks for the comment

Major investment firms have billions of dollars waiting to buy up residential property. The average citizens are priced out of the market= slow down is due to an affordable housing price

I'd suggest we look into passive index fund investing, and learn some more. Buy companies stock which you think has huge potential to grow. For me I have a stock expert that provides entry and exit points on the security I focus on while I go about my other business investing has no one way to do it eyes on the prize!! Mistake are expensive..

@@hugooliver4836 I have past investment in Real estate, so I'm looking for other means to maximize my returns seeing that the Real estate market is crazy atm! ™™How can one find a verifiable financial planner, I buy the idea of employing the services of Financial Advisor because finding that balance between saving and living requires counsel

@@michealliam3747 I invest across the top markets but not by myself 💯I follow the guidelines of Meghan Ann Brudie you might have heard of her maybe on CNBC. I can correctly say she's worth her salt as an investment consultant or Advisor as her diversification skills are top notch I say because I see that in her results as my portfolio grows by average of 30 to 50% on a monthly basis, unlike I can say for my IRA which has just been trudging along...

@@michealliam3747 Look her up with her name on the internet

Most likely

Good luck you better hope Powell doesn't raise the Fed funds rate .75 percent today. A fifty basis point rise would mean a short term major market rally.

I did the same last week

Then the Builders should.... and probably will ?.... sit on the stranded assets.

@@dirtlump I mean that they will keep carrying them on their books and not sell them at lower prices. simply because they can afford to...or try to maneuver around by quoting exorbitant rates for even simple upgrades like a change in carpet color or sticking a backsplash. OR they won't build on their allotted land.

@@sjjhalaa Very simply.... it won't work. Time and again history has shown that no 'one' segment can alter anything during the fear phase of an asset correction downward by sitting on it.... nor precipitate capital/equity retention by retaining what ultimately becomes the 'stranded' asset valuation during an otherwise fluid dynamic ? Best they can hope for.... again IMO here, will be an inflationary curve to catch up rapidly in strictly numerical terms to save face.

Great points. I'm guessing most builders leverage much of their profits to expand and grow. Right now they're getting hit with highly increased construction costs, increased interest rates and all this on top of decreased sales in new releases. In past market slowdowns many projects went under prior to completion. We will most likely see this again. It will be like Evergrande but on a smaller scale.

It will affect you regardless what type of mortgage you have.

Soon the world's population will start to decrease with each passing year. The birthrate is in sharp decline in Canada towards the absolute zero mark. Even the birthrate is falling in China. This is the major reason a monetary policy shift could happen in America to bring up the birthrate. The trickle down wealth effect didn't trickle down to main street it only produced inflation. That would mean the end of quantitative easing and interest rate suppression which would also get the homeless off the streets. Quantitative easing and interest rate suppression have destroyed the bottom 90 percent of wage earners. In an aging society with a falling birthrate rising interest rates helps more people than it hurts. In retrospect we can see Europe and Japan ran the wrong monetary policies not seeing the future falling birthrate and most of the population moving into the seniors category. Negative interest rates have wiped out retirees in both countries.

I remember just a little less than 20 years ago my friend worked construction overtime for 2 years straight and saved up and bought his first house cash in Niagara. Around the same time another friend working as a general labourer at a local hotel making around $10/hour (maybe less) saved up $5000 and bought his first house, his girlfriend wasn't working and he got approved my himself. Buying a house was a personal choice not a life dream. We are so far gone from those times it's insane.

this is the plan agenda 2030

@@jonflynn those times are not coming back anytime soon .. so stop looking for it

@@cosmiccometchichi exactly .. they dont want cheap homes for everyone to buy .. they want to control family numbers .. not make them go boom

Hi, luckily you're in a good position. Even though CPI will far outpace your return from a high interest savings account, at least your money is in a safe spot. CREA just released the May numbers today and supply is up 4.5% from last month and national home prices are down month over month. The use a Home Price Index which is a lagging indicator. If they used average sale price it would be a lot worse (or better for you). Rural eastern Ontario lagged a bit behind central Ontario but you will see more inventory in the coming months. As they say "the trend is your friend" and we're absolutely trending downwards for both number of sales and average prices. If I were you I would sit back and enjoy the summer and keep an eye on the market in case it reverses, which is highly unlikely in my opinion. Scotia Bank just put their 5 year fixed rate to 5.29% today which is a huge number in comparison to todays mortgage rates. Make sure you use an honest local Realtor® when searching for a home. Here's the link to the CREA statistics just released today. Keep in mind they present the numbers in a non-alarming way. creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/

Thanks for this. We really appreciate it. We are working with an excellent and very experienced Realtor based in Perth/Smiths Falls.

The Canadian housing market should get hammered in the month of September this year. Wait at least until this October to buy a house in Ontario. If the war in the Ukraine ends buy a house the day it ends. The price of oil will be driven down to $74 U.S. a barrel by speculators within 2 to 3 weeks pushing inflation lower in the near future. My guess is interest rates will peak in March 2024 and then start to fall slightly after that. In America housing and rents makeup 32 percent of the CPI. Rents will fully factor into the CPI by March 2024 in America. Maybe March 2024 if the war is still on in the Ukraine. Follow oil prices and food prices in the meantime. Look for wage gain data coming out of America. Presently the wage gains are right around 6 percent a year. If a wage price spiral ensues don't buy a house wait until runaway inflation hits America and the U.S. dollar tanks.

Still trying to quantify the correction but I previously called for a 30-50% correction.

I just revisited the supply and immigration debate in one of my recent videos. We have lots of new homes but they were all being purchased by investors

supposedly 50% of new mortgages in the past year are variable, but that does't take into account existing mortgages.

I agree.

This is why Poilievre wants to fire the Governor at the BOC. Their job was to keep inflation at bay. Instead, the BOC has become Turdo’s magic ATM.

They've failed Canadians miserably

it's coming, takes 5 years to reach the bottom, there's a long road ahead. will be more like 40% IMO

@@jonflynn LOL you are getting really desperate these days aren't you? Your prediction in this video was that we wouldn't hit a bull trap, pass go and head directly to the fear stage as soon as a couple of weeks potentially. A year later this video aged like a fine glass of warm milk. Recently it was the spring rally wouldn't last past a month, now it's all "it's a bull trap" videos on your channel. Now you are calling for a 40% decline... I cannot wait to come back in another year to see what silly reasoning you have then.

@@jonflynn how many more years do we have to wait for this coming 30-40% decline? How much have prices declined since you made this video?

@@jonflynn when is this 30% decline going to happen? Another year and no 30% decline in prices. Two years since you made this video and prices are basically unchanged.

You’re correct should have included Quebec in my statement. Desjardins is an insurance company in my area, I guess they do a lot of mortgages in Quebec. Thanks for the comment.

@@jonflynn yes it's also àn insurance company (mind you I Really think it's branch with dominion insurance (based in Kingston, Ont)

Thanks, hang in there and wait for the buy signals

Thanks

Interesting thanks for sharing

I went short the market last September and put in two big shorts on EQ bank and Home Capital back in February this year. Have yet to short the listed Canadian mortgage insurers. Stimulus money running out last November and Microsoft selling half their outstanding shares last November were bit tipoffs that finally the fraud U.S. stock market would at least change direction. So far the bankers who run and perpetuated the fraud ponzi three ring circus sideshow have yet to sell anything. They must be betting on hyperinflation and a total collapse of the U.S. dollar in the future.

I'm heard similar stories from a few friends.

How do you pull your pension plans?

@@sugadre123 Leave your employer although now the plans are being destroyed!

@@jonflynn Its really very sad to be honest breaks my heart but was this that hard to see.. I mean my pee brain called this and got out of everything when people were fomoing into RE..

Thanks for the comment

Well said

So do you suggest now is still a good time to buy? Or am how about February was that a good time to buy knowing that your property has already declined 10% before you move in and will continue to decline? Thanks for your comment either way.

Just like Niagara, but we're a bit behind the curve. June's numbers in my area look pretty bad though.

It could be

If you're white .. than yes. These people hate Europeans. Most people dont even know about agenda 2030. I don't see a very large correction b/c that incentivizes more families; more babies. They want to lower populations, especially whites in their own countries. If they don't want you to own anything, than it's smart for them to keep prices high

it's not as bad as you think. I've touch on population growth vs new home completions in a couple of videos in the past and will build more than enough new homes to keep up with population growth. The reason they're pushing so hard on immigration right now is to keep the economy going. More people coming in equals more money, they don't care about housing. As long as prices keep cooling and speculators and investors aren't bulk buying homes there will be enough.

@@jonflynn Thank you very much for your reply. Do you deal with housing in GTA? I am looking houses near 407 highway from Burlington to Markham. I am trying to gather much money as I can and thinking of buying sometime next year. Can I contact you to buy a house through you?

Thanks for the comment

thanks

At least

Builders prefer investors due to the ease of sale and lack of emotion as you stated hence why they target them first. I will point out that investors (small ones) do buy over priced homes that have negative cash flow. Most residential home investors I’ve seen recently are speculative and don’t care much about the purchase price and only care about the potential increase, which has been 20-30% a year. It is a form of greed in my opinion because they’re doing it for massive returns.

it's weird because Calgary was just specifically mentioned in the latest CREA press release as having declining sales along with ontario and BC

I didn’t predict it, I just go by what the data is telling us, and right now it says interest rates are going up and prices are going down.

They’re following the trends like the rest of Ontario. My advice has always been, upgrade when the market is and and downgrade when the market is good. Since you’re upgrading, waiting for prices to further decline is your best move. Buying a bank sale is the ultimate move.

Good point thanks for sharing

A lot will factor into what happens to China in the future as it directly affects Canada, New Zealand and Australia as well as the west coast of America. Their housing ponzi in China presently is on bended knees. It will have a minimal affect in America but a major affect on Canada.

Interesting opinion, thanks for sharing

Thanks for your comment

🏆TRUMP-MONEY

very well put, thanks for sharing

No problem

You’re correct

100

Most likely not far off

I probably wouldn’t recommend selling your primary residence unless you purchased with little equity in the last 12-18 months. But still $36,000 per year in rent vs $150,000-200,000 in lost value. In my area we’ve already lost $100,000 in one month

@@jonflynn Paying someone else's mortgage for them is never the right answer

True

yes it is